Week 13 Dynasty Pros - Starts/Sleepers/Sits
By Joel Dehls
It’s week 13, which means this is the last week of the regular season for a lot of you. The NFL season had flown by and it's been a blast writing for the Dynasty Pros website. I hope some of you have made the playoffs and will continue reading my articles weekly. If you are out of the playoffs it's important to keep following along as the final month will have a massive impact on what NFL teams will do in free agency and the draft, which ultimately will impact the ADP for 2021 fantasy football drafts! Let's get into it.
Start - Taysom Hill @ Atlanta Falcons
The last time Taysom Hill and the Saints played the Falcons they dominated them. The Saints won 24-9 with Hill completing 78% of his passes for 233 yards. He was also phenomenal on the ground, rushing the ball 10 times, for 49 yards and 2 touchdowns. While Taysom struggled to pass last week against the Broncos, the game plan was to keep the ball on the ground against a team who didn't have a starting QB. In this matchup against the Falcons, Sean Payton will have to construct a gameplan where Taysom is both a passer and a runner.
The Falcons are an ideal matchup for fantasy QB’s. They allow the 2nd most points to the QB position, only trailing the Seahawks whose defense has dramatically improved over the past 3 games. Furthermore, Atlanta has allowed 7 (!!!) QB1 games this season (courtesy of @Ryanmc23). Over the course of the year, they have only held 1 QB to under 18 points and allowed 5 QB’s to score 28 or more fantasy points. Don't look too much into their performance against the Raiders, that was a fluke more than anything else. Start Taysom as a top 10 QB.
Sleeper - Ryan Tannehill vs. Cleveland Browns
I have Ryan Tannehill in one of my dynasty leagues and every week it seems I’m debating sitting him for guys like Taysom Hill and Jared Goff in weeks past. It's been a while since he has had a blow up game, which makes me forget how consistent he has been. Tannehill is QB9 on the year, ahead of guys like Lamar Jackson and Big Ben who appear to be autostarts each week. His last 3 matchups have been brutal, against the Colts twice and the Ravens in week 11. Although they are 2 of the toughest defenses, Tannehill still averaged over 17 fantasy points during the stretch. In a much easier matchup against Cleveland, I expect Tannehill to return to his top 10 QB status.
While the Browns offense (especially their rushing attack) has improved in 2020, their defense is lackluster outside of Denzel Ward and Myles Garrett, and Ward is expected to be out for this game. The Browns give up the 12th most points to the QB position, but have benefitted from the easiest schedule in the NFL. With Derrick Henry wrecking havoc no matter who he plays, I expect Tannehill to get some easy downfield shots off play action.
Sit - Carson Wentz @ Green Bay Packers
Man, what has happened to the Eagles? I broke down their offensive struggles on my Youtube channel, which you can find here. Between play calling, offensive line injuries, and misuse of offensive pieces, it's hard to put all the blame on Wentz, but each week it's harder to make excuses for him. He is leading the NFL in turnovers, has the 5th lowest QBR, and the most uncatchable passes among all starting QB’s. In a game against a Packers team who is fighting to get the #1 seed in the NFC, I expected Wentz and the Eagles struggles to continue.
The Packers allow the 7th fewest points to the QB position (17.4/game) and I expect them to get after Carson Wentz with the Smith bros on the edge. The Eagles are banged up across the offensive line with injuries to Andre Dillard (out), Brandon Brooks (out), Lane Johnson (out), and Jason Kelce who is dealing with a hyperextended elbow. If the Eagles want a chance in this game, it will be on the back of Miles Sanders taking advantage of a lackluster rushing defense. Unfortunately, Doug Pederson has completely misused the star RB as he only had 8 (!!!!!) touches against Seattle last week. I would be benching Wentz in favor of Taysom Hill, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Baker Mayfield.
Start - David Montogmery vs. Detroit Lions
I’m not the biggest David Montgomery fan in this offense, but his rest of season schedule is one of the best in the NFL and could be a potential league winner. Montgomery has double digit fantasy points in 70% of games this year in PPR leagues. He is also coming off his best game of the season against the Packers where he rushed 11 times for 103 yards and had 5 receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown. The usage in the passing game is encouraging. Over his 10 games played, he has only 3 games under 3 receptions and is the clear workhorse in the backfield with Cohen missing the entire season.
To nobody's surprise, the Lions are terrible against the run. They allow the most points per game to the RB position, 33.2/game, which is 10 points more than the NFL average. In previous weeks, Dalvin Cook had 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, Antonio Gibson had 2 TD’s and Mike Davis had 80 total yards and a touchdown. I expect this game to be close which will keep Montgomery involved on the ground and through the air. Start him as a top 15 RB.
Sleeper - JK Dobbins vs. Dallas Cowboys
ITS JK DOBBINS SZN. After breaking out multiple times this year to only get supplanted by Ingram (why, Harbaugh, why do you do this) and then getting COVID, it finally feels Dobbins will take over the Ravens backfield for the last month of the season. Dobbins was leading all RB’s in snaps since the week 7 bye and has passed the eye test for me. He has great vision, explosiveness and can catch the ball out of the backfield. On top of this, he gets to play the Dallas Cowboys, who were EXPOSED by fellow rookie RB, Antonio Gibson, on Thanksgiving.
This is the IDEAL situation for the Ravens as the Cowboys allow the 6th most points to the RB position (23.4/game). The Ravens rush for the 3rd most yards/game, led by Lamar Jackson and Greg Romans offense. While defensive coordinators have caught on to Romans offense this year, the Cowboys simply don't have the talent to slow down their rushing attack. Lastly, Vegas expects the Ravens to be on top most of this game, as they are 7 point favorites, which means Lamar will not be forced to throw the ball down the field. Lamar has struggled as a passer this year, but the combination between him and Dobbins in the rushing attack should scare opposing defenses.
Sit - Phillip Lindsay/Melvin Gordon @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos offensive issues are apparent, but they are one team I can see taking a big leap next year. Between getting a healthy Von Miller and Courland Sutton, paired with a quarterback not named Drew Lock, they can be a 8 win team next year. It’s an uphill battle for this franchise, as they have to deal with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for the next 10+ years. I’m not sure if they will move off Lock in the offseason, but they MUST bring in somebody to compete. The last time the Broncos had Lock start, the rushing attack was solid against the Dolphins. Both Linday and Gordon had over 80 rushing yards, with Gordon finding the endzone twice. They were able to lean on their rushing attack because the Dolphins were terrible on offense, which led to Tua being benched.
Moving on to this game, I don't want any part of the rushing attack against the Chiefs. The last time they played in Denver, the Chiefs won 43-16 and dominated in all 3 aspects. Drew Lock was forced to throw 40 times, which will never end up being a positive for the Broncos. When you are losing, it's hard to stick to the rushing attack. Although the Broncos had 150+ rushing yards, Melvin Gordon finished as a mid RB2, as he found the endzone. The only way either of these RB’s are relevant is if they get a touchdown. Vegas expects this to be a blowout, as the Chiefs are 13.5 point favorites. I’d rather start CEH in the same matchup, JK Dobbins, or Antonio Gibson in a tough matchup against the Steelers.
Start - Allen Robinson vs. Detroit Lions
Man, I hope Allen Robinson is a Jet next year. I’m sure you’ve heard of all the terrible QB’s he’s played with in the past and Mitchell Trubisky and this version of Nick Foles might be the worst yet. I know we were all excited for Foles to come in because we expected him to be an upgrade over Mitch, but he was, at best, a lateral move for the Bears offense. Either way, Allen Robinson is a great WR no matter who is at QB. He is currently WR10 on the year and has the 3rd most targets in the NFL, only behind Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs. He has been super reliable in PPR leagues, with only 1 game under 10 points, and 6 games over 15 points. Allen Robinson is a low end WR1 and has an opportunity to put up a top 5 week against a terrible Lions secondary.
The Detroit Lions allow the 9th most points to WR’s (33/game) and are coming off a Thanksgiving game where Will Fuller had 171 yards and 2 TD’s. Although they drafted Jeffery Okudah 3rd overall in the 2020 draft, he has had a disappointing rookie season, as PFF has him graded as the 115th CB in the NFL. With neither offense being prolific, I expect a close game, which means the Bears will be balanced on offense. I have Allen Robinson as a top 8 WR this week.
Sleeper - Jarvis Landry @ Tennessee Titans
The Browns FINALLY got a game where the weather wasn't terrible and they showed their passing offense can be competent. Last week against Jacksonville, Jarvis had 8 receptions, 143 yards and 1 touchdown. It's hard to get a complete view of Jarvis’ year because Odell got hurt in week 7, then they played in 3 games where there was high wind with a mix of rain and snow. In a high scoring game between 2 bad defenses, Jarvis has a good chance to finish as a top 20 WR.
The Tennessee Titans defense has been bad all year. They allow the 8th most points to WR’s and are the worst team in the NFL on 3rd down, where Jarvis feasts on defenses in the slot. The Titans recently allowed old man TY Hilton to have 81 yards and a touchdown, as well as Michael Pittman to have his best game as a rookie on TNF, where he had over 100 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Vegas is expecting this game to be a shootout as well, with the over/under being set at 52.5, the highest of the week.
Sit - Marvin Jones @ Chicago Bears
I feel like every year Marvin Jones is on everyone's “value” list pre-draft. It’ll be an article stating how “from week x to week x, Marvin Jones was a top 5 WR!”. While I understand using stats to form a narrative as a writer, Marivn Jones is a player who is never on my team. While he has a couple blow up games a week, more often than not he's going to burn you. Even with Kenny Golladay only playing 4 full games, Jones is only WR32 on the year, and has been super TD dependent. Jones has played in every game this year, and only has 3 games over 55 yards. In PPR leagues he’s been decent as the Lions WR1, as he has 18 receptions over the last 3 games. In this matchup against the Bears, I would be looking elsewhere for a flex piece.
The Bears defense has phenomenal at each level of the defenses, especially against WR’s. They allow the 3rd fewest points (24.3/game) to the WR position and without Kenny Golladay (and likely D’Andre Swift) all of the attention will be placed on slowing down Marvin Jones and his deep threat ability. A few guys I would start over Marvin Jones are DeVante Parker, Brandin Cooks, Deebo Samuel, and Jarvis Landry.
Start - Dallas Goedert @ Green Bay Packers
There’s not much I like about the Eagles offense, but it looks like Dallas Goedert has proven to the front office he’s ready to take over the TE1 role. After battling injuries this year, he has became the Eagles #1 option in the passing game. Over the last 3 weeks, Goedert has the most targets, receptions, and yards on the team. Even though Zach Ertz is expected to return from IR after dealing with an ankle injury, his role is expected to be limited, which gives me confidence Goedert can be a top 5 TE against the Packers.
While the Packers have played well against the TE position this year, it has more to do with their opponents rather than their defense shutting down the position. The best TE they have played this year is TJ Hockenson all the way back in week 2, and he led the Lions in receiving yards. With matchups against Jimmy Graham, Trey Burton, and Tyler Eifert over the last 3 weeks, the Packers seem better than they actually are against TE’s.
Sleeper - Noah Fant @ Kansas City Chiefs
While I hate Drew Lock and most of the Broncos offense, someone has to produce, right? Noah Fant is one of the most talented TE’s in the NFL, he is just in a tough situation. He is currently TE15 on the year, and is coming off his worst game of the season where he only had 1 reception for 15 yards (no QB game). There might be an opportunity here in DFS leagues to start Fant, as many people still have a bad taste in their mouth and will be scared off in a bad matchup.
The last time the Broncos and Chiefs squared off, Albert O and Noah Fant combined for 98 yards on 10 receptions. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Albert O tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season, leaving Fant as their only viable option at TE. Start Noah Fant as a top 12 TE this week.
Sit - Logan Thomas @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Logan Thomas has been a great story for the Washington Football Team. Coming into this year, he had 35 receptions, 317 yards and 2 touchdowns in 4 NFL seasons. 75% through the 2020 season, Thomas has 34 receptions, 328 yards, and 4 TD’s. I like his story, but hate the matchup this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Even though the Steelers will be without Bud Dupree and Devin Bush at linebacker, there's nothing that makes me believe Washington will be able to move the ball against this defense. The Steelers, led by possible DPOTY TJ Watt, have the best pass rush in the NFL, allow the fewest passing yards in the NFL, and are top 10 against the run. I expect this to be a low scoring game between 2 great defenses.
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