Thrive Five Week 7
By Matt Kelley
Let’s start this week of NFL action off PROP-erly shall we and crush some props via our good friends at Thrive Fantasy. Enter our code DYNASTYPROS when you sign-up and receive an instant deposit match up to $50! (min $20 deposit) #PropUp
Kenny Golladay @ ATL O/U 4.5 receptions: O=80 pts. , U= 120 pts.
Does this prop sound familiar? Well we’ve looked to it in the last couple of weeks, last week with Adam Thielen against this very Falcons defense, and missed, but trust the process. Kenny Golladay has only had four receptions in each of the last two weeks and generally speaking, Golladay is more of a yardage guy than a volume guy, but against this Falcons secondary, Kenny G is one of my favorite players of the week. The Falcons have no one capable of matching up with Golladay, Atlanta is giving up everything on defense, and they were just torched by rookie Justin Jefferson last week (Thielen was close). I’m sticking with the process, I’m picking on this Falcons defense again and building my floor on this slate with the over.
Josh Jacobs v TB O/U 85.5 rush+rec yard: O= 90 pts. , U= 110 pts.
If you listen to my podcast The Pick Is In on Friday’s we talk DFS and you know Aaron Jones was my sit of the week last week. Why does that matter here? The Packers played this same Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense who is incredibly stingy against RB’s for the better part of 22 games. Jones had 10 carries for 15 yards and three catches for 26. The Bucs are allowing 64.3 yards rushing per game. Josh Jacobs has had at least 70 yards rushing in all but one game this season and at least 73 total yards in every game. The most yards by any single player rushing against the Bucs this season is 59 by Christan McCaffery in week 2. This is an uphill battle for Jacobs. The Raiders will also be without OT Trent Brown. There’s quite a bit of trepidation about lines in this game with the uncertainty on the offensive line availability for Las Vegas, but COVID tests to this point have been coming back negative and the Raiders should have most of their offensive line. It’ll be close for Jacobs as he’s seen an uptick in passing work, but give me the under.
Baker Mayfield v CLE O/U 0.5 INT’s: O= 70 pts. , U= 130 pts.
Another familiar prop, another attempt to redeem a miss. Weeks ago we had this prop with Baker v. Dallas. He did not throw a pick in what was quite an odd game. That said, Baker has thrown two picks in each of his last two games. Grant you last week Baker wasn’t 100% and didn’t finish the game, but Browns coach Kevin Stefanski noted that Baker is still a bit sore coming into this week's game. When these two teams met earlier this season they combined for 65 points. Historically speaking, division games tend to score a bit less the second time around. Mayfield was picked off in that first meeting as well. The Browns will probably want to make this the Kareem Hunt show as much as possible, but when the odds are swung this much towards the over, it’s not a place I want to get cute. I’ll take this over as another building block for the week.
Drew Brees v CAR O/U 280.5 passing yards: O= 95 pts. , U= 105 pts.
Do we like to pick on the Panthers defense for fantasy? Yup. Mostly their run defense though. The Panthers have allowed more than 240 passing yards just once this season (Justin Herbert). Drew Brees isn’t exactly a stranger to big games, especially at home. Historically his splits are notably better in a dome and at home. That said, we now know that he’ll once again be without star WR Michael Thomas and in the latter portion of this week WR Emmanuel Sanders was placed on COVID leave. Now Brees will be targeting Alvin Kamara (who is scary this week for fantasy, ALL the work), Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook, and...Marquez Callaway...maybe Taysom Hill? Options get thin real quick. It’s dangerous to bet against Brees at home, even with limited options, but I’m taking the under.
Ryan Tannehill v PIT O/U 250.5 passing yards: O= 95 pts. , U= 105 pts.
Whew, Ryan Tannehill. He has been playing absolutely lights out football as of late. So has this Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Clash of the Titans in this game (all of the pun intended). The Steelers are FAR more staunch against the run than the pass. Don’t get me wrong, this is a great unit, but if you’re going to beat the Steelers it’s going to be through the air. If anyone is capable of beating any defense it’s Derrick Henry, but even King Henry might have a tough time getting going against this front seven. The Titans will need to throw in this game that Vegas currently has projected for 50.5 total points. That combined with the Titans having given up 30 points in three of their last four contests. The danger here is the efficiency that has been Tannehill for...well since he took over as QB in Tennessee. His TD% is once again over 7%. The mean in 2020 is 5%. There’s always the potential that Tannehill continues his work and gets 3 touchdowns on 240 yards, but I’ll push the over here with A.J. Brown being healthy, Corey Davis back in the lineup and the emergence of Jonnu Smith.
