Thrive Five: Week 6
By Matt Kelley
Adam Thielen v ATL O/U 4.5 receptions: O= 80 pts. , U= 120 pts
Last week I missed on this exact prop, only with George Kittle vs. the Miami Dolphins. Well, I’m back for revenge and smashing the over here with the Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen. The Vikings take on the Atlanta Falcons whose secondary has been absolutely decimated. The Falcons have given up at least six catches to five different WR in five games this season. Thielen has seen 23 targets from Kirk Cousins over the last two weeks. Short and sweet, this is my favorite floor play of the week. OVER
Matthew Stafford @ JAX O/U 23.5 completions: O=105 pts. , U= 95 pts
So far this season Matthew Stafford has completed 83 of 137 pass attempts. His most completed passes in a single game over the first month is 24 (week 1 on 42 attempts). Based on the history I’m pretty hesitant to say over, but that’s where I’m leaning, here’s why:
Vegas currently has the total point spread at 54.5 with the Lions being 3.5 point favorites on the road. Honestly, perhaps a little too much credit there towards Detroit who hasn’t been able to hold a lead this season. When I read this line though, I think of a shootout for two reasons. First, both defenses...have seen better days, let’s put it that way. Secondly, the Lions are struggling to find an identity running the ball this season. The Jags have the highest pass rate in the league and while Detroit’s defense is arguably worse on the ground, they’re still giving up a boat load of points. This trends towards another 40 attempts for Stafford and I think he EEKS it out to hit the over.
Cooper Kupp @ SF O/U 73.5 receiving yards: O= 115 pts. , U= 85 pts
This is my riskiest play of the slate. Last week we saw the San Francisco 49ers get torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers defensive unit hadn’t been torched like that all season and it seemed like all the injuries may have been caught up to them. Mike Gesicki had five catches for 91 yards. Gesicki is playing more than 70% of his snaps from the slot. Cooper Kupp is playing better than 50% of his snaps out of the slot. That said, Gesicki is 20th in YAC (yards after catch) with 64, a good chunk of that coming on this past Sunday vs the 49ers. Kupp is currently 2nd in YAC with 217 yards. This looks like a spot for Kupp to get into open space and do his thing if the Rams feature him in the slot once again. I’m going to get a little risky and say Kupp surpasses 80 yards and take the over here.
Kareem Hunt v CLE O/U 72.5 rushing yards: O= 110 pts. , U= 90 pts
The ‘Steel Curtain’ is back in Pittsburgh. This Steelers defense is currently giving up an average of 64 rushing yards per game. This includes giving up 80 yards to Miles Sanders last week with 74 of those yards coming on a single busted run. The Cleveland Browns definitely like to run the ball, they’re leading the league with 172 attempts. Hunt basically has this backfield on lock and should see plenty of work. I don’t see the Browns changing philosophy, but I do see the Steelers selling out to stop Hunt and challenging Baker Mayfield to beat them through the air. This line is pretty spot on. I’m going to ever so slightly take the under as the Browns may need to utilize Hunt in the pass game to keep pace.
Calvin Ridley @ MIN O/U 81.5 receiving yards: O= 100 pts. , U = 100 pts
I’m going to go right back to the game that I started with for this final prop. The Minnesota Vikings have given up the sixth most receiving yards to date this season. The Atlanta Falcons have given up the second most. Neither defense can stop an air attack. This game has full on shoot out potential and the Vikings are going to need to throw in an effort to keep up. Julio Jones is expected to be back for Atlanta and frankly I think that only helps detract coverage from Calvin Ridley. If Julio is 100%, this Falcons offense should click back to form and we should expect a monster day for Ridley. Give me the over.
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