Thrive Five: Week 5

By Matt Kelley

Here we are, heading into week 5 after quite a tumultuous week 4 of injuries, blown leads and COVID-19. Nonetheless, we’re here to crush some props over at Thrive Fantasy and hopefully rake in some cash. Here’s my Thrive Five of the week: 

George Kittle v MIA O/U 4.5 receptions: O= 70 pts. , U= 130 pts.

Man oh man...George Kittle. Coming back from injury last week, Kittle gave us a strong reminder why he should be considered TE1 after racking up 15 catches for more than 180 yards and a score. This week the 49ers are at home against the struggling Miami Dolphins. Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Nick Mullens at QB, Kittle is going to be the go to target as well as the player this offense flows through. The Dolphins are giving up just south of 300 yards per game through the air. This pick doesn’t net you a ton of points, but I’ll be smashing the over. 

Baker Mayfield v IND O/U 241.5 pass yards: O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

With the over/under representing even odds here and 100 points at stake, I’m going back to the Baker Mayfield well (after he didn’t throw an INT last week). The Colts have allowed a paltry 159.3 passing yards per game through the first month of the season. Grant you, they haven’t exactly faced murderer’s row in the first month (Minshew, Cousins, Darnold, and Foles). While the Browns are exciting to watch right now, it isn’t because of Mayfield (except for his commercials). Baker has cracked 200 yards passing once this season. Part of that is because Baker has been kinda ‘meh,’ and part of that is because the Browns are currently rushing for more than 200 yards per game. If Baker couldn’t have a great day against the Cowboys secondary, I don’t think he’ll be breaking out here against the Colts. I expect another heavy dose of the Browns run game. Give me that under. 

DK Metcalf v MIN O/U 77.5 rec yards: O= 110 pts. , U= 90 pts. 

Very few players have been more exciting to watch this season than DK Metcalf. A big reason for that is because the Seattle Seahawks are finally letting Russell Wilson sling the ball. Oh...and because DK Metcalf is a beast of a human and really good at football. Metcalf's lowest receiving total in a game this season so far is 92 yards, which came against the Patriots Stephon Gilmore. This week the Seahawks play the Minnesota Vikings at home, who are giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air. Metcalf will likely see Mike Hughes or Holton Hill, and frankly I don’t care which one it is. It’s going to be a long day for this Vikings’ secondary. I like DK to roll and make it five straight games over 90 yards. 

James Robinson @ HOU O/U 96.5 total yards (rush+rec): O= 100 pts , U = 100 pts. 

Another even odds prop here, this time for the Jacksonville Jaguars RB James Robinson who has been an absolute baller for both for actual football and for fantasy this season. Robinson has crossed the century mark in total yards in three of four games to date. Before writing this I knew that the Jags' opponent, the Houston Texans, had been bad against the run this season, but I didn’t realize it’s been 180 yards per game bad. Woof. The Texans are a bit of a wild card right now after firing HC/GM Bill O’Brien this past week, but I don’t think there’s enough Flex Seal in the world to fix the holes in this Texans defense. Somehow the Texans are currently six point favorites, so if the Jags do get down, Robinson has shown his pass catching skills over the weeks as well, racking up 161 yards in four games. I like Robinson to continue his hot start, give me the over. 

Dak Prescott v NYG O/U 25.5 total completions O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

I guess it’s ‘Even Steven’ week here with the ‘Thrive Five’ as the over/under are each worth 100 points on Dallas Cowboys QB throwing more than 25.5 completions. Shockingly, the New York Giants are giving up the 5th fewest total yards and the 6th fewest passing yards in the league. Oh wait… the Giants are currently 29th in pace of play. Basically, the Giants offense is running so slow teams don’t have time to rack up yards. Dak Prescott hasn’t completed less than 25 passes all season. That’s in large part due to  the Cowboys defense (I use defense loosely) not stopping anyone and creating the need for Dak to throw. So the question is, can the Giants do enough on offense to keep Dak throwing? The Cowboys will probably feel they need to score 30 points, regardless of how close the Giants keep it, and Prescott will continue to throw just enough to carry into the over. 

Be sure to check out my interview with Scott Pesick of Thrive Fantasy on The Pick Is In Fantasy Football Podcast which you can find on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Stitcher and Google! 

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