November 29, 2023

Three’s Company? 

3 min read

Three's Company? 

By Joe Goodwin

At this point in the fantasy football cycle, you are probably being overloaded with the amount of information that is available to you.  One article claims a player is a “league winner,” while another puts that same players on the “Do Not Draft” list.

Needless to say, conflicting information can be troublesome for most fantasy managers.

A fantasy point that always gives me pause is the idea that an offense can have multiple high-end fantasy producers all on the same field.

I looked into that very premise to determine if that is true or not.

Last year, I found 2 examples of a fantasy explosion (3 receivers in the top 36 and a RB in the top 24) from one team:

Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR5, 305 pts), Tee Higgins (WR24, 219 pts), Tyler Boyd (WR31, 183 pts) and Joe Mixon (RB4, 288 pts).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR9, 262 pts), Chris Godwin (WR15, 242 pts), Rob Gronkowski (TE7, 171 pts) and Leonard Fournette (RB6, 343 pts).

I should also mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers were very close to qualifying for this study:

Diontae Johnson (WR8, 274 pts), Chase Claypool (WR37), Pat Friermuth (TE13) and Najee Harris (RB3, 300 points).

So, with these examples, can we predict whether these teams can produce in that same manner:

Las Vegas: DaVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Najee Harris

Philadelphia: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Know, Devin Singletary

Denver: Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Javonte Williams

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook

Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon

With the 2 teams that accomplished that feat last year, both were led by top tier quarterbacks Tom Brady (QB3) and Joe Burrow (QB8) with offenses that finished 2nd and 7th respectively in total points and 1st and 7th in passing yards.  And, each team had a run game that was overall in the bottom 10 of the league (Tampa Bay was 25th and Cincinnati was 22nd)

So, with all that being said, what key elements are we looking for in order for a team to support 3 top 36 receivers?

Key Point 1: A team with the requisite 3 receivers to achieve Top 36 WR or Top 12 TE

Key Point 2: Top Tier QB 

Key Point 3: Overall Offenses that finish in the top ten in total points and passing yards

Key Point 4: Run Offense is bottom 10 of the league

As we analyze each team and how they relate to each key point, let’s see where we stand:

Oakland: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{I’m sure some would argue that Carr is a top tier qb, but are you drafting him in your top 8 qb’s?}

Pittsburgh: Point 1, Point 4

{Pitt has the weakest qb and middle of the pack offense}

Philadelphia: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{Jalen Hurts will have to prove he can be top tier first}

Buffalo: Point 1, Point 2, Point 3

{Run game is strong on Buffalo}

Denver: Point 1, Point 2

{Hard to project with the massive upgrade in QB in the offseason on where the offense will finish; Seattle was middle tier in offense stats}

Minnesota: Point 1

{This is not a dart at Cousins, more like a “wait and see” approach with the new offense}

Cincinnati: Point 1, 2, 3, 4

{Let’s hope the improved offensive line helps continue to the trend}

Based on this data, the four teams most likely to support 3 top 36 receivers are: Cincinnati, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo.  

So, if you try to convince yourself to draft Jeudy from Denver or Claypool from Pittsburgh later in your draft in the hopes they can pay off….chances are more likely they will not.

And, if you want to wait a few rounds and grab a receiver like DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd after the 7th round, chances are good they may hit as a top 36 receiver.

Remember the numbers don’t lie!!  Only 2 NFL teams supported multiple fantasy starters in one lineup last year and most likely, that trend will continue again this year.


As always, “Come and knock on my door” if you need any fantasy help @JGoody77 on Twitter