The THRIVE Five: Week 4
By Matt Kelley
We’re well into our redraft and dynasty seasons, and you probably have a good feel for what defenses can be exploited. You’re making those weekly start/sit decisions based on matchups. Let’s take a look at how to utilize that information for a little extra fun and a little extra cash.
Starting this week, we’ll take a look at 5 of my favorite NFL prop bets for the week. I’ll be talking about props via Thrive Fantasy. Thrive is a platform that combines daily fantasy and prop bets. Rather than sifting through hundreds of props each week, Thrive lists out 20 props, and you pick your favorite 10 (or so) which lead to a point value. The higher the point value, the less likely the prop is viewed to occur and vice versa. More points, more winning. Simple enough.
George Kittle v PHI O/U 60.5 yards: O=105 pts. , U= 95pts.
He’s BACK! After missing the last two weeks for the San Francisco 49ers, George Kittle comes back this week to face the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defense has a reputation for being stout, but that’s largely against the run. Yes, they’ve technically been good against TEs as well, but last week they faced Drew Sample. Week 1 was Logan Thomas (who still found the endzone). And then there was week two in which the Eagles made Tyler Higbee look like the best TE on earth, allowing him to find the endzone on three occasions. George Kittle is a gamer. He’s been itching to get back on the field, and the Eagles are going to lend some extra possessions to the 49ers with some Wentz turnovers. Kittle is head and shoulders above any competition the Eagles have faced this season at the position, and he is going to be featured. I like Kittle for over 80 yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire v NE O/U 95.5 total yards (rush+rec): O=105 pts , U= 95 points
This one is a little more bold when we consider the Pats’ run defense, but I’m trying to gain insight into the terror dome that is Bill Belichick’s mind in an effort to make good here. What does Belichick try to do in an effort to win? He takes away the opposition's biggest weapon. In this case, it’s Patrick Mahomes so...good luck. That said, I think this is a spot where the Chiefs may turn to CEH a bit more, and he may find a few extra attempts and targets. This would make the Chiefs have to drive the ball through him, rather than Mahomes having the opportunity to display his MVP worthy talents the way he did this past week against the Baltimore Ravens. This one could be close, but give me the over with CEH racking up 120 total yards.
Josh Jacobs v BUF O/U 0.5 Rush TD’s O= 110 pts, U 90 pts
Eventually I’ll pick an under...maybe. This week however, the Raiders are likely to be without WRs Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. This, weirdly, might not be the worst thing for the Raiders. Here’s why... The Bills are BAD against slot receivers and basically anything over the middle of the field. You may be wondering how this helps Josh Jacobs. Insert the Raiders need to feature Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. The Raiders will need them, along with Jacobs, to move the ball. Relying on these options is going to allow the Raiders to move the ball more effectively than most expect. With the Bills only favored by 3 points, the Raiders should keep it close enough to still put the ball in Jacobs hands. The Bills have also given up four rushing scores in three weeks. I like Josh Jacobs to hit pay dirt.
Tom Brady v LAC O/U 262.5 Pass Yards O= 95 pts U= 105 pts
Oh. Here we are... the under. And I’m going against Tom Brady. What could possibly go wrong here? Nonetheless, looking at this matchup objectively, Tom may struggle to put up yards on Sunday. The Chargers have given up more than 235 yards passing at least once this season, and that was to Patrick Mahomes (in a game where it took OT for Mahomes to get there). Brady himself has only cracked 250+ yards once this season, and that was last week against a banged up Broncos defense and offense who turned the ball over time after time, took sack after sack, and really offered nothing in the way of stopping the Bucs. Brady will once again be without WR Chris Godwin after he pulled his hamstring last week. I hate going against the GOAT, but give me the under.
Baker Mayfield v DAL O/U 0.5 INT O= 70 pts, U= 130 points
Sometimes you have to take the ‘gimmies’. This is one of those times. Currently the Dallas Cowboys are 4.5 point home favorites. To me, that’s giving the Browns perhaps a little too much credit. This is a game in which I see Dak continuing to do Dak things and exploiting a pretty bad Browns defense. If that’s the case, the Browns will be behind, thus relying on Baker Mayfield to throw and bring them back. Those are all the ingredients I need to see a Baker Mayfield interception occur. Take the over here, and bank the points.
Pick your props. Rack up points. Win cash prizes.
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