Zach Ertz

Veterans and Dynasty Value

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Veterans and Dynasty Value

By Tim Lazenby

It’s impossible to overlook the effect of Father Time in fantasy football when it comes to dynasty format.  But just because a player isn’t as young as he once was, it doesn’t mean his value is nil.  I’m going to give you three players at each skilled position to target knowing full well my projected shelf life of elite play.  Let’s begin with the tight ends.

Tight Ends

The fall off age for a player depends on position and at tight end, the magical age is 28.  Although there are rarities, statistics show that after the age of 27, you see less tight ends dominating and the drop off in contribution beginning.  Let me give you one veteran to target for this year, one who will be good for a couple seasons and one who will be good for three or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Gerald Everett (28) is a good target for this category.  While he’s not in the upper echelon of tight ends, his value should go way up now that he’s with Justin Herbert and Co.  I do fear that he’s a temporary fix, but when he is priced at TE21 (166 overall), the price doesn’t get much better.  If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they love to throw.  And this should be exploited even more as this will be the best offensive tight end he’s played with.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Zach Ertz (31) is a great target if you’re looking for a guy with a couple years of solid fantasy play.  It may surprise some to know that after the trade to Arizona, Zach Ertz was the TE6 on the season.  And while Marquise Brown hurts his value, I don’t think Ertz will subside greatly.  It’s also going to take a couple seasons for Trey McBride to claw his way to the top of the depth chart, but even when he does, Ertz has shown he can share a field with a partner.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Call me crazy, but I think we still have tons of time left to appreciate the legend of Travis Kelce (32).  A unicorn in his own rite, Kelce has been nothing but dominant since day one.  With the receiving room having been overhauled in Kansas City, there is no doubt in my mind that Kelce will be targeted more now than ever.  Lastly, for those scared off by his age, legends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have both played over twice the amount of career games as Kelce.  While that may not be a guarantee of how long Kelce will play, he’s certainly got lots of time left.

Wide Receiver

For me, the magical age for fall off when it comes to wide receiver is 29.  There is a rapid decline once you cross over into the 30s, but that doesn’t mean that all players are dead in the water after their twenties.  Let’s throw three wide receivers, at least 29 years old, at you who are still elite in dynasty.

Very Relevant For Next Year

There’s a lot that makes fantasy managers nervous about Robert Woods (30) moving forward.  Just coming off injury and moving to a new system can be nerve wracking, but the price is right.  Despite competition in Treylon Burks, that’s where the list ends.  It also helps Woods’ case that stud Derrick Henry is coming off an injury himself, so they can’t pound the rock as hard as they want.  At WR38 (101 overall), his price has never been this good since his days in Buffalo.  Treylon will take over, make no mistake, but this season Robert Woods has a real shot at WR2 status.

He’s Got a Couple Years

With my second Charger in this article, we can’t overlook the glaring value of Keenan Allen (30).  Since 2018, Keenan Allen is the only wide receiver to get over 130 targets every season.  The early years with injuries haven’t been forgotten for some, so take advantage.  And make no mistake, this receiver room belongs to Keenan Allen, not Mike Williams.  He’s also being drafted in the 30s in some circumstances.  Go after a manager who only sees him as a one year player and take Allen all the way to the championship.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Davante Adams (29) is the only 99 wide receiver on Madden.  And even though many people disagree with many ratings, most agree on this one.  That being said, some are concerned now that Davante is going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.  I’m going to go on record and state that talent is talent.  Adams is special and he’ll shine no matter where he goes.  It also doesn’t hurt that I think Carr is underrated.  I can’t see a world in which Davante Adams isn’t elite for at least another 3-5 years and hopefully you can’t either.

Running Backs

Everyone knows that the shelf life is the shortest with the running back.  Being the most physical position in the league, it makes complete sense.  It’s also the hardest to find true value.  Once a running back hits 26 years old, I begin to get nervous.  Here is a list of three running backs, 27 or older, to consider under the previous noted criteria.

Very Relevant for Next Year

The list of running backs is more sparse than other positions.  Ezekiel Elliott (27) is a name this season, in dynasty, that many managers are treating like a ghost.  It makes sense as 2021 was his worst year to date, but let’s not forget the situation the man is in.  It is true that Tony Pollard is chomping at the bit, but the reality is that the Cowboys are far too financially invested in Zeke to not showcase him.  He still also plays behind arguably the best O-line in the league and the passing options have decreased from last year.  Zeke has never been cheaper.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Going back to back and featuring Titans, I’m going with Derrick Henry (28) here.  I can’t recall a more dominant runner in recent history than Henry.  A giant among mortals, Henry broke many hearts as he went down with injury last season.  And while I don’t think he’ll be up to speed immediately, it won’t take forever.  The cupboards are also not overflowing with running backs to take a stab at his crown.  In redraft, he’s still quite expensive, but in dynasty he’s ripe for the picking.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

I’d be lying if I thought any running back over 26 could be a surefire bet to fit this category, but if you’re forcing my hand, I’m going right back to the Chargers in Austin Ekeler (27).  I know I’m super pro-Chargers here, but there is good reason to be.  If the Chargers hadn’t drafted Isaiah Spiller, I’d be more nervous, but this gives shelf life to Ekeler.  Now he doesn’t have to be on the field all the time and he can be used in far less physical situations.  Much like Henry, in redraft the value is high, but in dynasty, you can still make a profit.

Quarterbacks

Lastly, we move on to the most critical role in all of sports.  In fantasy, especially if you are playing 2 QB or superflex, hitting the right value on quarterbacks is essential.  The longevity of a quarterback is the best of the bunch, but that also makes it harder to take advantage of a good value.  Once a quarterback hits 33 years old, I get leery.  But, have no fear, as I am going to give you three quarterbacks to go for in dynasty who are 34 year old or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Well, this category was much easier than the others as there are only four starting quarterbacks that are 34 or older.  The answer to this first one is quite simple.  Although Tom Brady is one I’d take for sure for next year’s value, I’m going Aaron Rodgers (38) because I want a chance at more years.  Though Rodgers is signed for multiple years, I never quite trust him.  And for that reason, if you’re only focused on winning the championship, he’s a great target.   With many worried managers just wanting him off their plate and willing to sacrifice the value, the time is now to go for A-Rod in dynasty.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Although for many young fans, Matt Ryan (37) is all they’ve ever known of Atlanta, he’s getting a fresh start in Indianapolis.  And while he isn’t the MVP he once was, there’s still plenty left in the tank.  With no ready option for the Colts under center, Matt Ryan will have a few years to show off his skills.  And as the QB21 (151 overall) in drafts, there are plenty of managers not seeing his full value.  He’s one of the few late quarterbacks with the upside of a QB1.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

It should come to no surprise that Matthew Stafford (34) will be the winner of this category.  Even if he wasn’t elite, which he is, his Super Bowl win will give him ample time to stick around in one of the league’s best offenses for years to come.  Like previous entries in this article, the value may not be there in redraft, but in dynasty, Matthew Stafford may have the biggest value and upside of any quarterback in the league.

Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

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Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

By Steve Uetz

 

As you seek a Championship in your dynasty league, a question to ask is this:

Is the short-term success with an aging asset worth the potential temporary sacrifice of future talent?

Welcome to the Dynasty Dilemma of Zach Ertz

I find Tight Ends to be a notoriously scarce position group for fantasy football. Since talented youth is often the priority in dynasty leagues, I find myself questioning the proper course of action with 31-year-old TE Zach Ertz. With Ertz’s resurgence in Arizona, I have been asking myself these questions: Is Zach Ertz an exception to the rule of prioritizing youth? Is taking the chance on an older asset worth the potential price of acquisition?

Zach Ertz’s dynasty dilemma began in his final games as a Philadelphia Eagle. Leading into the 2021 season it was clear that he and Eagles were not on the same page regarding a potential contract extension. Philadelphia had expressed their appreciation of Ertz but continued to seek a team-friendly deal for his services.

After a very up and down first six games of the 2021 season, Ertz was surprisingly traded to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals were seeking to fill the void left by TE Maxx Williams after he unfortunately suffered a season-ending knee injury. Ertz suddenly became fantasy relevant again. In the 11 games he played with the Cardinals, he averaged nearly 7.5 targets and 5 receptions per game totaling 56 catches for 574 yards and 3 TDs.

What is the proper course of action with Zach Ertz? Is he an asset to BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

 

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with Zach Ertz is very similar to that of RB James Conner due to the current state of the Arizona Cardinals organization. As stated in Conner’s dynasty dilemma: in the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Ertz currently finds himself with a projected increased opportunity for targets.

RB Chase Edmonds and WR Christian Kirk are now out of town and AJ Green remains unsigned. The pass catching core of the Arizona Cardinals currently looks like this: DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and Antoine Wesley.

Ertz’s revival in the desert earned him the type of contract that he was seeking in Philadelphia. Ertz was given a 3 year - $31 million deal with $14 million guaranteed. Ertz holds legitimate appeal for the 2022 season being a part of Arizona’s fantasy-friendly offense. He quickly became a reliable target for Kyler Murray on a team that hasn’t had a dependable TE option in a very long time. For the 2022 season he should be considered a back end TE1 due to the unique blend of increased projected opportunity and scarcity at the TE position.

 

 

It is true that fantasy value can be had with aging veterans like Ertz, but the priority in dynasty leagues should be youth. I believe there was a fair reason the Eagles were unwilling to pay Ertz anything more than a team-friendly contract. He simply did not look like the same player in his final season and a half in Philadelphia. While he still contributed to the offense, albeit inconsistently; he didn’t look near as quick or as explosive as he did in his early seasons and Pro Bowl awarded seasons (2017-2019), especially compared to fellow TE Dallas Goedert.

At this point of his career Ertz is most appealing to a very specific type of dynasty team. Strong TE-needy contending teams is where he needs to be rostered. There is appeal to sell since he is most useful to a smaller percentage of teams across your dynasty league. If you are a current Ertz holder and that above criteria doesn’t apply to you; then you should absolutely be willing and looking to sell him to a team that does fit that criteria. It is perfect; even if that strong contending team already has a decent TE, Ertz can still be dangled out for bait as a solid depth piece.

 

There is a case to be made where he is still a valuable hold initially for middling to borderline contending teams where TE depth is needed. This is a temporary hold situation to see where you stand across your league after the first few weeks. In this specific instance, let’s say your team is struggling to earn wins, Ertz should be moved to a contending hopeful. However, if your team is earning wins and you are appearing to be an outside contender after all; I’d find holding to be appropriate.

Ultimately, it would be optimal to trade Ertz away for whatever draft capital you can prior to your dynasty leagues’ rookie draft due to the reasons I laid out above. Or if you start the season with Ertz, it would be opportunistic to move him immediately if and after he pumps out a big game early in the season.

I think a reasonable return for Ertz would be a 3rd round rookie pick plus a young depth piece at a position of need. A strong contending team seeking a championship would benefit from Ertz’s opportunity in the fantasy-friendly Cardinals offense; giving up a 3rd round rookie and a young player would be worth it for both sides.

I do believe there is legitimate reason to be optimistic with Ertz in 2022, however I fear the optimism will be through a shorter-term lens rather than a longer-term lens. Looking through the longer-term lens is where I prefer to consider roster management action. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the short-term value is more palpable compared to the long-term.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

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10 Players to Buy & Sell

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10 Players to Buy & Sell

By Bob Miller

 

Whether you’re buying or selling, here’s a list of players to consider making a move on before it’s too late.

 

Javonte Williams (75.20) 

One of my favorite buy-low candidates is Broncos rookie running back Javonte Williams. He has pretty much split carries with Melvin Gordon through the first seven weeks. In the past five games, we have seen Williams become more involved in the passing game with three receptions in each matchup including six catches on Thursday. Keep in mind that seven of his remaining 9 weeks (not including Week 18) are against defenses that rank in the top 12 for most points allowed to running backs per game. With Melvin Gordon in the last year of his contract, I say go get Williams now. It is going to pay off this year and beyond.

 

Zach Ertz (64.90) 

With tight end being so thin in fantasy football, Ertz is a fantastic player to target via trade. He had a great debut with Arizona on Sunday posting three receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown. That was good for 16.00 fantasy points. I would expect double digit fantasy points week in and week out. One good thing about trading for Ertz is that his current owner probably drafted him as a backup tight end. That means Ertz should be somewhat easier to acquire due to him not being depended on as a starter originally.

 

George Kittle (43.60) 

I have said for over a year now to sell George Kittle, so why is he now on my buy list? Business.. that’s why. If I can get an elite player at a discount, I’m always interested. I have said too many times that Kittle cannot stay healthy, and that’s pretty obvious now. But if you can get him at a discount, why not at least look into it. Whoever in your league currently owns Kittle has to be extremely frustrated. We are still not sure when he’s coming back, and the current Kittle owner may need the roster spot for someone else during these brutal bye weeks. I am a strong advocate for acquiring Kittle now at a nice discount and flipping him for a profit once he returns. 

 

Saquon Barkley (64.50) 

Just like a Kittle or McCaffrey owner, someone is terribly frustrated with Saquon Barkley. That’s what I like to see. I have been trading for Barkley at a discount wherever I can. We all know what he is capable of, and that Giants offense is completely different with Barkly playing. Personally I do not see Saquon as an injury prone player, just someone with a little bit of bad luck lately. I don’t have to sell you on Barkley, we all know what he can do. I’m just here to tell you that I have no problem trading for him. Better days are ahead of Saquon. If you can get him at a discount, make it happen.

 

Joe Mixon (106.50) 

Mixon is a player that makes his owners nervous, as they think they may lose him again due to injury, and I’m there to take advantage. Right now may be the best time to go acquire the stud running back who is currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and rush attempts only behind Derrick Henry, and is second in the NFL in yards after contact. I’d offer another running back like Kareem Hunt, James Robinson, or Darrell Henderson to get Mixon.

 

 

Jalen Hurts (165.74)

Some way, somehow, Jalen Hurts manages to put up fantasy points. He’s currently the number 6 fantasy quarterback on the season. This is the perfect example of fantasy vs reality. In fact, Hurts has scored 43.4% of his fantasy points this season in the 4th quarter. If you can sell high on him, I strongly suggest it. As it stands right now it does not look like Hurts is Philadelphia's franchise quarterback. He is making bad decisions and he has not shown the arm accuracy that you need to succeed in the NFL. The Eagles could grow very impatient with Hurts and possibly bench him down the stretch. Philly did trade for Gardner Minshew earlier this season and could turn to him as a more conservative approach. Hurts is risky, so I’d look to move him.

 

Deebo Samuel (131.00) 

Deebo is an absolute stud when he’s on the field, but that’s when he’s on the field. He missed eight games last season and left early in a couple more. He was a headache last year, but not this season. He put on a show Sunday night against the Colts posting seven catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. Right now he is a top 5 wide receiver on the season. His value has never been any higher, so look to take advantage. I’m not saying you need to move him, but at least make it known to your league that he could be had at the right price. I just saw him get traded straight up for Tyreek Hill in a dynasty league. That’s selling high right there.

 

Adam Thielen (106.50) 

Adam Thielen is one of my favorite sells. He is still playing at a high level, even at the age of 31. The man just gets it done. My only motivation to trade him is to get younger at the position. You don’t have to hype him, everyone knows what he is. I’m just looking to move him for younger options before it’s too late. I’d target players like Calvin Ridley straight up, Marquise Brown, or DeVonta Smith plus a draft pick in exchange if possible.

 

Cordarrelle Patterson (116.40)

There’s not a bigger sell high candidate than Patterson. He currently has more fantasy points than Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Nick Chubb. Patterson has scored on 16% of his receptions. This number should regress as the season goes along, because the fantasy competition gets a lot tougher for Atlanta. They faced three teams who ranked in the bottom 10 for points allowed to the WR position (where Patterson’s points have come from primarily). Going forward, only in four of their remaining 12 games will they see those kinds of matchups. Sell, sell, sell. See if you can get someone like Saquon Barkley or Javonte Williams.

 

Courtland Sutton (103.90) 

Sutton has had three great weeks in a row that were fueled by a huge amount of targets (30). However, that target share will be unsustainable with the return of Jerry Juedy in Week 8. In his last 23 games Sutton has only seen 10 targets in 5 of them. Now is a great time to sell Sutton due to his lack of “week winning” upside once Juedy returns.

Top Dynasty Values/Buys

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Top Dynasty Values/Buys

 

We consider “Dynasty Buys” players who some would argue are being undervalued in dynasty leagues. These can be players who had their 2020 season cut short due to injury. They can also be rookies, 2020 disappointments, or undrafted players who are now in better situations. This could be players who are in better schemes that could give them more opportunity as well. Don’t underestimate this list of players, as they could be potential league winners. Read below to check out who the writers here at Dynasty Pros plan on selecting in all their drafts after the first three rounds.

 

Question: Who’s that one player currently outside the top 36 in the PPR Dynasty Leagues that you are drafting everywhere and why?

 

Javonte Williams (RB - DEN) Consensus Rank: 50th Overall | RB20

“Williams is a player I’m targeting on all my dynasty drafts in 2021. The Denver Broncos traded up in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft to grab the electric running back out of North Carolina. That type of investment tells me that Williams should be heavily involved in the Broncos offense immediately. Veteran running back Melvin Gordon no-showing at voluntary OTAs could really help Williams separate himself and win the starting job this summer. Williams has the tools to be a top tier running back, as he led the FBS last season in missed/broken tackles with 75 on just 157 rushing attempts. Don’t be worried about his toughness either, as he was a linebacker-turned-running back in college. I consider him a phenomenal value, since he is currently being drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds. This is a steal for a running back that could be starter come Week 1”

- Bob Miller (@DynastyProBob)

 

 

Zach Ertz (TE - PHI) Consensus Rank: 163 Overall | TE20

“It may seem strange to find a guy like Zach Ertz in a “Dynasty Buy” article with him being 30 years old and approaching 31 but this is exactly where Ertz should be.  In any dynasty buy article you are looking for two things, to buy at a value and a player who has more than one year of productivity left.  Ertz fits both of those categories but the value may not last much longer if he is traded in the coming days or weeks.  Tight ends typically play into their mid 30’s and Ertz has been a phenomenal player with the exception of last year.  Ertz dealt with some injuries last year but more importantly Philly was just a mess and you must take that into consideration when evaluating Ertz.  I believe it’s safe to assume that Ertz is in for a bounce back season especially with a zip code change coming anytime.  Ertz had five straight seasons with at least 74 catches and over 800 yards until last season.  He’s still athletic and he’s likely to be the tight end #1 on any team he plays for.  The time to buy is now before a trade happens because if Ertz is traded to a team like the Indianapolis Colts or Buffalo Bills his value will immediately spike.  Go get this guy in your dynasty leagues where you are a contender this year and next.”

- Levi Ellis (@FFStock_Man37)

 

 

Darnell Mooney (WR - CHI) Consensus Rank: 129 Overall | WR55

“Darnell Mooney had a solid rookie season for the Bears in 2020. After somewhat coming out of nowhere, the former 5th round pick finished 2nd on the team in targets (98), receptions (61), and yards (631). The inconsistent QB play of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles hampered Chicago's passing game, affecting Mooney's...and Allen Robinson's...production. Mooney' speed makes him a serious downfield threat for a QB who can get him the ball.  Andy Dalton and/or rookie Justin Fields should be a definite upgrade for the Bears pass catchers. I am buying Darnell Mooney in every league I can get him in. I predict him to put up 77 Receptions, 986 Yards, and 7 TDs. That’s 217 PPR points, which are solid WR2 numbers. That’s fantastic value for a guy going in the mid-to-later rounds of dynasty drafts.”

- Tommy Harvey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

 

Parris Campbell (WR - IND) Consensus Rank: 143 Overall | WR59

The biggest thing Parris Campbell has going for him right now is his price tag. In most leagues, you can pretty regularly get him for a late 2nd which is getting into the “dart throw” range of picks. All players around there are going to have their question marks. For Campbell that is clearly his injury history, though reports say he’s fully healthy. Now, while there is some amount of injury risk, if he stays healthy he’s in a good position to exceed his current price. It’s a very, very small sample size but in the one full game he did play last year, he had 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 71 yards. For 16 games, he would be on pace for 140+ targets, 90+ catches, and 1100+ yards. That’s WR1 level usage and people are selling him for almost nothing. Again, that was a very small sample size and 2022 will not be the same as 2021 (Carson Wentz as the new QB, Michael Pittman also taking a step up, etc.). Still, there is a pretty high ceiling there for Campbell and, outside of injuries, he’s shown that he can be a starter in the NFL. Even if he doesn’t live up to his ceiling, I fully expect him to outperform his current price tag.

- Zach Owen (@NuetralZoneFF)

 

 

Gabriel Davis (WR - BUF) Consensus Rank: 148 Overall | WR61

“The Buffalo Bills were good. Really good in 2020. Part of their success came from improved QB play from Josh Allen, and the ability for his WR to step up. Josh Allen threw the ball 572 times in 2020. My 2021 projections don't have him falling flat of that and I believe Gabriel Davis, not Emmanuel Sanders benefits from this. Davis was a fourth round pick by the Bills in 2020 and took full advantage when Brown got hurt. He ended his rookie campaign with 35 rec/599 yards/7TDs. He was extremely effective in the endzone and while some say his high TD rate isn't sustainable, I believe he’s got the ability to end with double digit TDs in 2021. Let me explain. 

Gabriel Davis comes in at 6’2, and was learning to utilize his size last year. He became the deep ball target that Allen could lean on, with four of his seven TDs coming from 20 or more yards. Davis ended the year with an NFL 7th best reception average of 17.1! Davis comes in as the tallest WR on the Buffalo roster (Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders all 6’ or shorter) so should become one of Allen’s best red zone targets. Buffalo did not go out and get some TE help (at least not yet) and let go of John Brown this offseason, which also is a positive impact for Davis. I’m predicting 67 receptions, 991 receiving yards, 10TDs (226 PPR pts). With a year under his belt and some offseason noise of the continued chemistry with Josh Allen, I’m fully invested in Gabriel Davis. So should you.”

- Ralph Martinez (@LobosFFDen)

 

 

Michael Gallup (WR - DAL) Consensus Rank: 100 Overall | WR44

“The general consensus on Michael Gallup is that he is the WR3 for the Cowboys behind Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. Some how Gallup still managed to receive over 100 targets last year in that same role. Also, there were only two guys who had more targets in the NFL who were a WR3 for their respective team. Those two players were Chase Claypool (the Steelers were #1 in pass attempts) and Russell Gage (the Falcons were #4 in pass attempts). Russell Gage also benefited from Julio Jones missing 7 games. Many assume Lamb will take a larger chunk of that share this year but it is also easy to forget that the QB situation also improves a lot. In 2019 Gallup put up over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in a full season with Dak Prescott. Gallup is also in his final year of his contract and there could be a few things that raise his stock. Gallup could hit free agency and find himself on a team to be at worst the WR2. The Cowboys also have an out on Amari Cooper which would increase the chances Gallup is resigned by the Cowboys to pair up with Lamb. The third option is Gallup could be traded. If he is traded, the team acquiring him is likely a WR needy team that will force him the ball. Gallup has showed he is talented enough to get a large target share even in a crowded WR room, and his situation can only improve.”

- Collin Kral (@CollinKral)

 

 

Noah Fant (TE - DEN) Consensus Rank: 69 Overall | TE7

I have always loved Noah Fant as I am a lifelong Iowa Hawkeyes fan and that is where he caught my eye. Fant came into the NFL with every indication he was going to be elite. He is a 95+ percentile athlete in every category! He hasn’t become any less elite during his two years in the NFL. 

Fant’s stats in the NFL are matching up with his elite profile. Fant put up the 6th most receiving yards by a rookie TE since 2000– with 562 yards. That yardage came from 8 games of Joe Flacco, 3 games of Brandon Allen, & 5 games of a rookie Drew Lock at QB. Yeah, not a great list.

What about year two? Let’s dive in! In year two Fant put up 673 yards in 15 games. As we dive deeper we see that in one of those games there was one pass completed by Kendall Hinton, and another game he left after 5 snaps. I know it isn’t always fun to play the “what if” game because it's hypothetical, but if you extrapolate and do some math he was on pace for 812 yards in 16 games, while also dealing with a high ankle sprain. 

If you take Fant’s total yardage from his first two seasons, he’s in good company in total receiving yards among TE’s since 2000. He’s 10th on the list, behind Antonio Gates, Gronk, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham and Jason Witten. His 10 spot also ranks ahead of the likes of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed and Dallas Clark. Not bad company. 

Can he keep it going? Sutton is healthy and Jeudy is a mad man when it comes to route running. How does he get the ball? With Lock, Bridgewater, Driskel, Rypien, and Hinton at QB. Stats can’t go down from last year. I project the Broncos to have 4000+ passing yards no matter who is at QB. I mean look at the Steelers and the Cowboys and the Panthers, they supported 3-4 really solid receiving options. Speaking of the Panthers QB that supported those several good fantasy options, Teddy Bridgewater is now in town, which may allow for some consistency at the QB position. Although they have yet to name a starter, I believe that Teddy could Keep all 3 of the big weapons in Denver pretty pleased!

Noah Fant is absolutely elite and he may not break out this year folks. However, this is dynasty; you want to buy before the breakout. Noah Fant is 23 years old, an absolute stud and a QB away from being one of the next GREAT TE’s! He is a bargain at his current Dynasty ADP and I suggest you buy him before it is too late.

- Zach Kurt (@zachattacknfl)

 

 

Jerry Jeudy (WR - DEN) Consensus Rank: 51 Overall | WR24

Let’s rewind the clock to 2019. It’s just before draft time, and Jerry Jeudy is being touted as the best WR prospect since Julio Jones. Considered among many to be the best route runner to come out of Alabama. Fast forward to now. Rookie season complete and where do we stand? 

Jerry Jeudy finished his rookie year with an underwhelming performance. Or did he? Jeudy received 113 targets last year. Of those, only 58% were considered catchable. He caught 52 of those 113 targets. That’s a 46% catch rate. He also had 8 drops. If you add those drops to his reception total, his catch rate jumps to 53%. I realize it’s a little off the cuff math, yet Jeudy never had drop issues in his career at Alabama, so I don’t expect a repeat of this number. 

Looking deeper into his stats, Jeudy finished with 1,536 air yards, good enough for 6th most in the NFL.  Jeudy is the only player to finish top-10 in air yards who didn’t finish with at least 1,000 receiving yards. He should reach that mark in year 2. He also averaged over 1.5 yards of separation per target, which means he was open frequently. 

I think Jeudy's primary issue was quarterback play. In the offseason, the Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater from the Panthers. Last season, Bridgewater managed to propel wide receivers to top-36 fantasy finishes. As odd as it may sound, Bridgewater should be an upgrade at quarterback for Jeudy in 2021. Look for Jeudy to finish as a reliable WR2 this season. Maybe the most appealing is the cost to acquire him. In redraft and best ball, I've seen him go as late as the 9th round. In dynasty, I recently sent a 2nd round pick for him. Jerry Judy is a great buy right now, before he breaks out in 2021.

- Alex French (@TheBlindGuyFF)

 

 

Sam Darnold (QB - CAR) Consensus Rank: 172 Overall | QB27

“One player that I am currently buying in dynasty is QB Sam Darnold for 3 primary reasons:

  • At only 24 years old, Sam Darnold is entering his 4th NFL season and no longer trapped underneath the perpetual storm cloud of a head coach named Adam Gase. The grass is always greener when players are beyond the grasp of Gase. QB Ryan Tannehill is the most notable example of a player who’s talent and potential was capped but then resurged for an epic career redemption once they were set free from the clutches of the horrific incompetence of Adam Gase. Besides the addition by subtraction with Adam Gase, Darnold has been given the metaphorical keys to the car which bring me to reason 2...
  • Job security. Carolina has demonstrated full confidence to Darnold as they traded away their incumbent starter, Teddy Bridgewater, to the Denver Broncos in the weeks leading up to the 2021 NFL draft. Carolina then traded for Darnold and then passed on drafting a QB despite sitting in a prime spot for a QB in the first round. Carolina further displayed their commitment as they picked up Darnold’s 5th year option the day following the 1st round of the NFL draft. Darnold will now have at least two years to show what he is capable of with what is easily the best offensive arsenal he has ever played with in the NFL which is a segue to Reason 3...
  • Darnold’s vastly improved arsenal will include the following: Darnold will be under the wing of the young and intriguing Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady (former LSU OC who played a massive role in Joe Burrow’s record breaking and national championship winning season!), versatile RB stud Christian McCaffrey, rising WR stud DJ Moore, intriguing rookie WR prospect Terrace Marshall, and finally, Darnold will be reunited with his favorite target during his best statistical season; the spry veteran WR Robby Anderson!

He is one of my favorite QB2 options in Super Flex dynasty startups and at the current moment his cost is extremely reasonable for drafts and trades. I firmly believe his career trajectory has nowhere to go but up!”

- Steve Uetz (@FantasyLadder)

Zach Ertz: From Stud to Bust to… Value?

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Zach Ertz: From Stud to Bust to… Value?

By Darren Smith

Zach Ertz has been the model of consistent production at the tight end position for the Eagles from the time he was drafted in the 2nd round in 2013. From 2017 to 2019, the 3-Time Pro-Bowler boasted an average of 964 yards and 93 receptions per season for over 10 yards a catch. This gave him top 5 numbers in each year in PPR scoring - complete stud right? Maybe only Travis Kelce was this productive while staying this steady. 

Then 2020 happened. Ertz posted 335 yards on 36 receptions while only catching 1 touchdown and fell all the way down to tight end #31 in PPR. This is largely due to 6 weeks missed with injury - not to mention the fact that the Eagles had QB controversy, a head coach on the hot seat, and a rotating carousel of offensive lineman that were plagued with a variety of injuries. The way Ertz is talked about today, it’s like he played a full season with a successful team in 2020, with no reason for his poor production. Recency bias has taken a tight grip of the fantasy community as Ertz was largely a 4th round pick in dynasty startups before last season, and now has fallen to an ADP somewhere in the mid-teen rounds.

The Eagles organization has fallen victim to this bias as well. In 2016, they signed Ertz to a $42.5 million dollar 5 year contract, and have a potential out in 2021 while taking a dead cap hit of about $7.5 million. So naturally Ertz’s name has been shopped to buyers around the league, taking interest from the Seahawks and Colts - rumors have even surfaced he could be packaged with Carson Wentz. 

Out of the teams reported to be interested, it’s my opinion that Seattle is the best landing spot to get back to his glory days. Barring a trade of Russell Wilson, the Seahawks consistently targeted the Tight End position in the redzone and made Jacob Hollister look like a competent football player.  What could they do with someone as talented as Ertz? At 30 years old, he may be out of his prime, but others in the same position have proved you don’t have to be a young gun to have production (I.E. Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook). 

Indianapolis is also a decent landing spot, but they have a much more crowded space for Ertz to compete for targets, with players like Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Trey Burton. Even so, Ertz would be a complete upgrade - not to mention reuniting with his former Super Bowl winning coach, Frank Reich. So what does this mean for Ertz’s fantasy value in dynasty leagues? 

First off, if you own Zach Ertz in dynasty - don’t panic. 

Selling Ertz at his current value is absolutely a mistake, even if you’re lucky enough to find a buyer for any price at all. This is the lowest value a tight end of his stature will go for. Ertz is a firm hold in dynasty leagues - his value to your team is much higher than any players or future picks will give you, as it won’t be much. 

Don’t own Zach Ertz and hurting are for tight ends for cheap? Go make an offer to the guy in your league, who is probably panicking - especially if your startup happened recently. They most likely paid a high price to draft him and are concerned with returning any kind of value. 

If you’re currently in a start-up, wait on a TE and check around the 12th round. I can almost guarantee that Ertz will be available (unless your league mates beat you to this article.) The only place for Ertz to go is up, and he has a much higher ceiling than other TEs available making him a huge value at a low price. The gamble could payoff with a jackpot pick with only a small loss in the event of a bust.

You can follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We are onto our 2nd division now! We will be covering the NFC East but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this season as a mouthwatering offense building off of an impressive 2019 campaign. Dallas falls into the BIG BUY category!

QB Dak Prescott: “Ladder Pick”, QB1, 6-7% auction budget, round 5. Dak will be the primary beneficiary of the gargantuan offense surrounding him. The best trio of WRs the NFL has to offer, a TE on the rise, one of the best RBs, *checks notes* oh, and Dak has immense rushing upside! Sheesh!

RB Ezekiel Elliott: RB1, 30-32% auction budget, round 1, this stud do it all 3 down back is poised to have a monster season!

RB Tony Pollard: RB 4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, this zeroRB favorite is the only competition in town behind Zeke. If Zeke were to miss time, Pollard enters high RB2 range.

WR Amari Cooper: WR1, 16-17% auction budget, round 3, the leader of the WR pack is primed for another big year even with Gallup rising and the future star CeeDee Lamb in town, I see him leading the team in targets. Having Cooper as a Best Ball target I would bring some caution to prepare for a little bit of rollercoaster ride week to week but overall he should be feasting.

WR Michael Gallup: ideal WR3 but WR2 if robust RB strategy, 5-6% auction budget, round 7-8, productive player will draw the lesser DB matchup week to week but with this offense being such a nightmare to defend I see Gallup in plus matchups week to week

WR CeeDee Lamb: WR4, 2-3% auction budget, round 11-12, what felt like a luxury pick for Dallas was actually a brilliant selection in Lamb. He can play everywhere, he’s dynamic, will contribute to opening up the offense. I hate to gush so much but there is just so much to love about this group!

TE Blake Jarwin: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 auction stash, round 13, as the clear passing catching TE option I can see him being a chain mover and massive problem in the red zone. Picture this: goal to go…defense has line stacked anticipating Zeke run…play-action…TD Jarwin *chef’s kiss*

Philadelphia Eagles

With Carson Wentz leading the way, the Eagles offense is a BUY this season!

QB Carson Wentz: QB1, 3-4% auction budget/round 9-10, the offensive core remains intact with rookie WR additions; Wentz continues to be an under-appreciated QB for fantasy as well as in real life. He’s got a big arm, rushing upside, and the incoming rookie all have one thing in common: Speed!

RB Miles Sanders: RB1, 19-21% auction budget, late round 1/early round 2, he flashed as a rookie with impressive athleticism and pass catching ability, he will look to improve in all facets of the game especially without Jordan Howard around.

RB Boston Scott: RB5, $1 deep auction stash, end of bench RB/priority FA in shallow leagues. Since the Eagles are an offense I want pieces of, keep a close eye on Scott since he has shown that he is able to produce is this offense when given the opportunity.

WR Jalen Reagor: WR4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, versatility and speed makes him an extremely exciting prospect!

WRs DeSean Jackson (WR5, 1-2% auction budget, round 12-13) and Alshon Jeffrey (priority FA in deep leagues, purely because he is starting the year on the PUP list) are seasoned vets and have proven to be difference makers when healthy. Were Best Ball leagues made for DeSean Jackson or was DeSean Jackson made for Best Ball leagues? All I know is that Best Ball league championship trophies were named after DeSean Jackson.

TE Zach Ertz: “Ladder Pick” TE1, 9-11% auction budget, round 4 (it he lasts to round 5- I am smashing his name!), Ertz has the ability to lead the Eagles in targets, catches, and TDs. Having the speed of Reagor and Jackson will only further open things up for Ertz. He will continue to be a favorite target for chain moving and in the red zone!

TE Dallas Goedert: high TE2, 2-3% auction budget, round 13/14, a great selection if your strategy to “wait on TE” gets out of hand. He has shown to be productive even when sharing the field with Ertz, if Ertz were to miss time he instantly becomes a mid range TE1!

The Washington Football Team

I’m generally considering this offense a FADE, however I believe any player in any offense is worth keeping an eye on especially in an uncertain year such as this.

QB Dwayne Haskins: low end QB2 is a FA to watch, outside of dynasty and super flex leagues he is undraftable. We want sure things and upside in our draft. Worth keeping an eye on as a streaming option as he looks to further develop as a pro QB in a division where shoot-outs are likely week to week. The good news is he has nowhere to go but up, hopefully. Remember, he is only two years removed from setting Ohio State University records for single-season passing yards and single-season touchdowns. If your starting QBs’ bye week lands on the same week that Washington plays a division rival, that may just be a good opportunity to consider Haskins.

RB Adrian Peterson: RB4, 1-2% auction budget, round 13, Peterson (much like Frank Gore) isn’t going away. He still may have some juice left, but if Washington is frequently playing from behind (which I would think is likely) than I’m not sure how the new and improved coaching staff can justify having him on the field. I’m no NFL head coach though.

RB Antonio Gibson: RB4, 3-4% auction budget, round 9/10, for me he is the player to target in this crowded backfield. I think his skill set and inherent upside separates him from the pack. I believe he is the perfect type of RB to be used in those situations hwer Washington will be trailing in games, again which I think is likely to be often. I believe he has the ability to takeover this backfield eventually. Upside stash!

RB Bryce Love: end of bench RB5/6, I’m hoping to see the Bryce Love we saw in college, but have to see him on the field first. Border line undraftable with crowded backfield but certainly a worth a late round stash as depth bench piece, I see him more as a priority FA worth keeping a close eye on!

WR Terry McLaurin: WR2, 13-14% of auction budget, round 5, this QB proof stud looks to improve upon an already impressive rookie season. He is the bright light of an offense that has a lot to improve on with a new coaching staff.
Players to monitor: TE Logan Thomas,  WR Steven Sims and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden. I feel this is important to mention because I made the mistake of brushing off Terry McLaurin’s dominant week 1 performance against the Eagles.

My stupid brain (at the time): “Who cares? It’s Washington. Of course he lit up the Eagles, it just what WRs do to them”… BUT he went on to have a truly impressive season. Don’t repeat my mistake, I suggest you pounce if one of those guys breaks out. Steven Sims was a stud weeks 15-17. Keep an eye out.

New York Giants

The Giants are an offense I’m categorizing as NEUTRAL, this offensive core has plenty of room to grow with players that you should not shy away from nor with players worth “reaching” for considering their auction value/ADP.

QB Daniel Jones: high QB2 with sneaky QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. Good weapons surrounding him can help salvage his fantasy outlook if he struggles with turnovers, 2-3% auction budget, round 12/13

RB Saquon Barkley: RB1 (ranked RB2), 31-33% auction budget, early round 1 (chalk at 1.02), he’s does it all, he’s a stud, an exceptionally talented athlete! Quads for days!

WRs Sterling Shepard (WR4 3-4% auction budget, round 8/9), Golden Tate (WR4 2-3% auction budget, round 9/10), and Darius Slayton (WR4 2-3% auction budgets, round 9/10) make up a very nice trio of WRs for Daniel Jones. All great first guy on the bench options, very useful for injury/bye replacements with upside for more.

TE Evan Engram: TE1, 5-6% auction budget, round 7/8, as my TE6 he leads the middle tier of TEs (with Hayden Hurst and Hunter Henry), provides a lot of upside and will be a beneficiary of mismatches with the trio of WRs alongside of him.