Tua Tagovailoa

Replacing Watson

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Replacing Watson

By Joseph Goodwin

Now that we know there is a 6 game suspension for Deshaun Watson (which appears he will accept), how do fantasy managers proceed in drafting Watson?

First of all, be prepared for any draft that is about to happen, that the Watson stock is going to skyrocket.  I anticipate seeing Watson’s value rise to a low end QB 1 in the next few days; QB 10 or higher off the board.

If you are targeting Watson as your long term QB 1, before drafting your short term starter, consider the following:

Risk Aversion Level 1-3 (you want little risk)

You need a viable QB 1.  You cannot throw away half your season waiting for Watson to return.  You will need a legitimate starting quarterback to maintain a 4-2 or 5-1 pace to start the season.  Going 3-3 (or worse) does not bode well for your playoff chances in a 12 game regular season.  Instead, I would target the likes of : Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers. These choices are safe, reliable starting QB 1’s, but may require an investment earlier in drafts to secure than the scenarios below.  

Risk Aversion Level 4-6 (you don’t mind some risk)

You need a viable QB 1, but have a little more room for volatility.  In this scenario, you may be able to wait a tad longer on your QB 1 and target Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford.  Each QB will provide stable, fantasy point production through game 6 until Watson returns.  This scenario allows you to spend more of your early round draft capital on RB, WR to maximize your team’s scoring potential.  I excluded Derek Carr from this group due to his week 6 bye. This plan gives you an extra round or two from the 12 game plan to add depth to your other starting positions.

Threat Level Midnight

This option provides the most opportunity to swing for the fences and can include players like: Tua Tagovaiola, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence.  This plan offers the chance to load up on RB, WR, and TE; with a potential start: RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR, RB, WR before even thinking about the QB position. This plan can be a huge upside play.  A manager can plan on having Watson for 7 games before the playoffs, with the hopes of Tua, Justin, or Trevor provide adequate early season production to keep the team at 3-3 before Deshaun returns.

In all of these scenarios, Watson returning for game 7 against the Ravens should be the start to high end fantasy production from all of your starting positions.

My favorite among these scenarios is Matthew Stafford.  He provides solid QB play with a small amount of risk. My second favorite is Tua Tagovailoa.  Tua offers a solid 6 week opening and the added bonus of playing the Bears during Watson’s bye week.

In any of these scenarios, your risk tolerance and early round build are crucial to how you approach what QB to pair with Watson.  

Deshaun Watson could very well be a league winner if you find the proper compliment at QB.

Know your settings, schedule, and evaluate your tolerance to volatility in making this decision.

And win that title!

AFC East Best Values

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AFC East Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

It’s official.  April is one of the strangest months as a dynasty fantasy football fan.  It’s been long enough after the season to have done tons of start ups and mock drafts, but we’re still a long way away from the NFL Entry Draft.  So even though we’ve done tons of drafts, made many moves and performed our best tricks to improve our squads, we’re at the point where many are pretty much done.  Here’s the rub: if you’re done now, you’re sleeping on primetime to make moves.  With so many managers in neutral gear, now’s the time to rev it up.  Every team offers values for your fantasy squad and the AFC East is no different.  Here are the best values in the AFC East in dynasty.

 

Buffalo Bills: Wide Receiver - Jamison Crowder

It’s no secret that the Buffalo Bills are the team to beat in this division.  Boasting the best quarterback in the league for many doesn’t hurt.  Add in a deep receiving core, throw in an underrated running game and sprinkle in a dominant defense that keeps the Bills offense on the field, everyone should want a piece of this team in fantasy.  Everyone knows Stefon Diggs is good and it’s common news that Gabriel Davis is the “breakout” on so many lists right now, but there’s a name that not many are even talking about.  I didn’t even notice that Jamison Crowder had signed with the Bills at the time, but you should take notice.

Jamison Crowder isn’t the most exciting name in fantasy, but if he was ever on your squad while healthy, you know exactly what he brings to the table.  It is true that he has struggled with injuries, but the talent is fantastic when he’s on the field.  Truthfully, Crowder has never been able to benefit from elite quarterback play up until now.  Despite receiving catches from subpar talent, he’s performed extremely well in the slot.  And now that he’s with one of the best, he’ll shine even more.  You can argue that the slot receiver is undersized, but he’s bigger and younger than Cole Beasley.  Beasley, also a slot receiver, is now gone; vacating his plus 100 targets every season with Josh Allen.  It’s time for Crowder to feast, and he’ll cost you pennies on the dollar.

 

New England Patriots: Wide Receiver - Jakobi Meyers

Bill Belichick is a genius, that much can’t be debated.  His mind is just different from anyone else in the game and his resume is proof of it.  Even though I question his moves sometimes, because I’m just a schlub, he clearly knows more than me.  I wondered why certain players just couldn’t stick or highly drafted talents weren’t given more opportunity, but if it’s my mind versus Bill’s, I have to concede defeat.  It’s for this reason that I continue to buy Jakobi Meyers everywhere I can, as Belichick trusts him on the field.  Some of you may argue that Meyers was a bad buy before Davante Parker came to the Patriots and Meyers should be avoided even more now.  But to that I say, the timing is even better.

Jakobi Meyers is never a name that instills excitement in the fantasy community.  But there is one main reason that he excites me.  Despite playing for a rookie quarterback who took time to learn and grow, Meyers was very consistent.  And while he lacked the touchdowns last season, I have faith this statistic will improve.  We’re also forgetting that Davante Parker, while extremely talented, is incredibly inconsistent.  While this is largely due to injury, I’d rather have a steady player like Meyers.  While others are pawing at the “discount” in Parker, make sure you get the real discount in Jakobi Meyers.

 

Miami Dolphins: Quarterback - Tua Tagovailoa

Amid all the controversy and excitement of this offseason, some names are getting a lot of press.  Real life scandals and big trades have taken the forefront, so it’s even harder to focus on what makes our fantasy squads better.  The Miami Dolphins are a team that I thought would contend last season.  And while I looked very foolish early on, as the season drew to a close, I was looking more intelligent.  There were many players to take the blame for Miami’s losses last year, but I don’t think anyone blamed Tua Tagovailoa more than any other player on the Dolphins.

“So if he’s so terrible, why are you suggesting him as a player to acquire?”, asks the eager reader.  We have to remember that we are looking for values in this article.  If I were looking for a top tier starter, Tua wouldn’t be on this list, but as a discount QB2, he’s right at the top.  If Jaylen Waddle is so good, we have to place a value on Tua.  Miami has made many supporting moves this off season to give Tua his best chance at success.  And, the biggest reason of all, the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill.  These moves should have made owner’s salivate at the chance to roster him, but in the backs of most people’s minds, they’ll still say, “but it’s Tua”.  Don’t be one of those fools who can’t see the sure progression of the guy Miami took instead of Justin Herbert.  They’re invested and you’d be foolish to not invest at this price.

 

New York Jets: Running Back - Michael Carter

There are a lot of things that come to mind when you think of the New York Jets.  The real life fans have been through the fire with this franchise.  It must be truly maddening watching such highly touted prospects flop or leave your team in the basement.  But make no mistake, there is still treasure to be dug up on the Jets squad.  The most valuable Jets player is one of two in most people’s eyes.  One being wide receiver Elijah Moore and the other being running back, Michael Carter.  It’s funny in a way, because I see Moore as overpriced in drafts, while Michael Carter is not.  And even though he’s not “cheap”, he offers the best value on this team.

2021 was in many ways a terrible year for Michael Carter.  The Jets were, once again, one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Carter also spent a large portion of his rookie season on the mend.  But while others might see him as an injury risk playing on a horrible team, see him for the talent that he is.  The path for Carter to succeed is clear.  He’s young, has no true competition and is one of the only talented options to lean on.  Finding a starting running back for a discount is not easy, so it’s essential to take advantage when you can.  There are hurdles for sure, but Michael Carter is not one who is being held with tight fists by many managers.  This opens the door for you to make an attempt at gaining Michael Carter for way cheaper than he should be.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We begin our journey through the AFC with the AFC East. This is a very intriguing division for both real life and for fantasy football. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase’s mannerisms at his introduction press conference from a couple years ago still haunt me; this isn’t the reason why the Jets are a FADE. The reason is because he is the coach. Big Weirdo. Bad Coach. That press conference...I just can’t even...

QB Sam Darnold: QB2, priory FA for injury or matchup dependent bye week replacement, certainly has upside but it is a capped for the incompetence of the HC. He is a franchise QB to build around which I’m confident Joe Douglas will do. Dynasty buy!!

RB Le’Veon Bell: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 4, he’s not the Bell that we feel in love with in Pittsburgh but talent and high volume is rare, intriguing but with caution. Game scripts aren’t likely to be in Bell’s favor. Also the inconvenient truth is in town, the eternal Frank Gore.

WR Jamison Crowder: “Ladder Pick” WR3 (if robust RB with elite TE, ideal WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, he will be a target monster on a team that is likely to be often playing from behind.

Crowder is one of my most drafted players so far this year. Jets WR1 that will get volume with (likely) game script help that is being drafted in the late rounds? YES PLEASE!

WR Breshad Perriman: WR5-6, 1-2% auction, round 14, as the end of your bench WR, Perriman’s late season breakout last year landed him a prime role in this offense. Plenty of upside, not much to lose at cost.

WR Denzel Mims: priority FA, this steal in the 2020 NFL draft could make a great pair with Darnold. He got banged up early in training camp...we apparently just can’t have nice things in 2020. Keep him on your radar!

TE Chris Herndon: TE2 with TE1 upside, $1, round 13. Can I call Chris Herndon the DeVante Parker of TEs? So much upside, so much promise, but little to show for outside of inconsistent flashes of greatness. I’m afraid we will forever say “this is the year” with him as with Parker.

Parker, of course finally broke out last year, same could happen with Herndon! We need him on field though! TE is very deep, so other options remain but certainly juicy upside. Not much to risk if he is your TE2 in a deep league. Could be delicious trade bait!

New England Patriots

The new look Patriots are a NEUTRAL offensive core, with looks of player worth targeting, none of them are worth reaching for. An intriguing offense year in and year out, that remains, but it isn’t business as usual this season. The GOAT is now in Tampa and in comes a former MVP, because of course.

QB Tom Br... Jarrett Sti...Cam Newton: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 12, Cam could be an absolute steal at his ADP. This feels a little bit like Lamar Jackson last year, hopefully Cam is actually healthy now. Plenty of upside, going late…

The NFL is more fun with Cam on the field. Inherent rushing upside could be exponential with some uncertainty in the RB group!

RB James White: RB3 6-7% auction, round 7-8, this zeroRB legend has more upside for PPR, and is seriously an ideal weapon for Cam. With concerns regarding Sony Michel and Lamar Miller, White could become a lot more than just a PPR floor play.

RB Damien Harris: RB4 (robust WR with elite TE), ideal RB5, 2-3% auction, round 12, opportunity in a good offense is a key to great fantasy late round value, you’ll have nothing to lose and everything to gain with Harris. Keep an eye out for Rex Burkehead if any RBs are to miss extended time.

WR Julian Edelman: Low-WR3 (robust RB), ideal WR4, 7-8% auction, round 8, Edelman is another ideal target for Cam. Edelman can help Cam’s passing efficiency. I’m going to target Edelman aggressively. PPR target.

WR N’Keal Harry: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, Harry disappointed as a rookie primarily due to struggling with injuries. He has nowhere to go but up! Could be a steal in the late rounds!

TEs Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene are interesting dynasty prospects. Would it be something if the Patriots trade for disgruntled Cleveland TE David Njoku mid-season…would love to see it!

Miami Dolphins

The ADP of the offensive core is a clear representation of why this offense is a FADE, BUT the Dolphins have interesting upside as they look to build off of the semi-surprising success they showed last season.

QBs - Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tua Tagovailoa - Miami landed Tua without the full blown “tank”, he is an incredibly intriguing prospect to me. He is the QB they will build around. *Russell Wilson vibes*

Fitzpatrick is still the lovable bearded gun-slinger, but undraftable in standard roster 12 team leagues. dId YoU kNoW hE wEnT tO hArVaRd?! *Yawn*

RBs Jordan Howard: Low-RB3, ideal RB4, 5-6%, round 10, he is Rodney Dangerfield, he gets no respect despite consistently producing 1000 yard rushing seasons. Power back who is able to catch, under-utilized in that regard.

RB Matt Breida: RB4, 4-5%, round 10-11, Brieda has the speed and pass catching upside but is a little frustrating to roster with injury concerns. Good player with good opportunity. Not going to reach for him, looking for value!

Howard and Breida compliment each other well and should work well together in the offense. Hard to predict week to week usage but I am targeting them as a value in drafts.

WR DeVante Parker: WR3, 6-7% auction, round 7, the Parker breakout *finally* happened and it was indeed glorious to see him ball out. I’ve been down the road of hoping for upside too many times so I will only be drafting him at a value this year.

WR Preston Williams: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, really exciting rookie season ended abruptly from injury breaking the hearts of the fantasy world. I’d expect a slow start but certainly targeting him as my end of bench WR!

TE Mike Gesicki: “Ladder Pick” Low-TE1, 2-3% auction, round 12, Gesicki was an athletic standout at the combine 2 years ago, the fruit of his athleticism translated on the field last year.

The pass catching TE who is practically a WR has lots of opportunity in an offense that will likely feature have favorable matchups and game scripts. I’m a Pavlovian dog and Gesicki is the bell!

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are known for their passionate fans, but fortunately for the Bills Mafia, the Bills are on the rise! This revamped offensive core is given the NEUTRAL label from me. I’m targeting, but not reaching for, this improved group!

QB Josh Allen: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 10, massive arm and rushing upside makes him a very intriguing player. New weapon, Stefon Diggs should contribute to his passing efficiency increasing. Big upside!

RBs Devin Singletary: (low-RB2, ideal RB3, 11-12% auction, round 6) and Zack Moss (RB4, 4% auction, round 9) are a nice hound duo is an offense that is trending up. Good defensive play is typical so there should be plenty of opportunity for touches.

I see Singletary as more of the volume play, with Moss getting the pass catching and potentially the goal line role. Upside can be capped by Allen rushing ability. Both are very talented, it will be very interesting to see how this situation plays out.

WR Stefon Diggs: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), high WR3, 9-10% auction, round 7, Diggs finds a new home in Buffalo. I think Diggs is a tremendous addition to this offense, he could be an amazing value! Bills paid a big price for him as they build around their franchise QB.

WR John Brown: “Ladder Pick” WR5, 3-4% auction, round 12, the Diggs-Brown duo is an underrated one! Diggs will attract the tougher defensive matchup which will help make life easier on John Brown. Everything to gain and nothing with a player at his value! Perfect sleeper!

WR Cole Beasley: priority FA, PPR target, in the mood of Julian Edelman, this scrappy WR is incredibly underrated and often forgotten about. He should be rostered in all leagues if Diggs or Brown were to miss time!

TE Dawson Knox: Low-TE2, priority FA, TE is so deep this year that he undraftable in standard rule 12 team leagues. This breakout candidate could benefit from Stefon Diggs presence the most! Add him to your watch list!