Travis Kelce

Dynasty Dilemma: Travis Kelce 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Travis Kelce 

by Tim Lazenby

 

Legendary is not a word to be tossed around lightly.  It’s often overused with words like goat, hall of famer and simply the best.  All of these words have been attributed to Travis Kelce at one time or another.  Whether it be in real life or any fantasy format, if Travis Kelce is on your squad, his opponents are nervous.

 

 

The Reason to Sell

Despite all his success, Travis Kelce like many others simply cannot stay at the top forever.  That being said, despite his age and wear and tear, Kelce remains near the top of the perennial tight end ranks.  How long will he stay atop the tight end mountain?

 

Age

This problem plagues not just football players, but mankind alike.  Simply put, everyone ages and no one is impervious to Father Time.  Kelce has been a mainstay at the top of the tight end ranks for years, literally.  Since taking over the top spot from Gronkowski years ago, no one has even come close to threatening his crown.  This couldn’t last forever and we’d be foolish to not see the chance of a decline.

 

Challengers Arrived

In start up leagues, particularly non dynasty, the fall off isn’t as drastic, but in established dynasty leagues, it’s much more severe.  Ever since 2017, Kelce has been at the top or near the top in rankings, but this upcoming season, it’s different.  The mighty Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts are ahead on virtually everyone’s list and there are a couple more ahead on some.  He’s still great, but for how much longer?

 

 

The Reason to Buy

While it’s true that Kelce is aging, his regression has been incredibly slow.  Despite being 32, he doesn’t look like it.  No one can fault him for not repeating his historic season of 2020, but even last season was simply astonishing.  There are abnormalities and you have to wonder if people are selling him short just because he’s 32. 

 

Unparalleled Health

I can’t recall a single tight end that has reigned as tight end number one for so long.  Even more amazing is that he can be trusted to be on the field each and every game.  Since 2014, he has missed a grand total of three games.  This level of health is unheard of, especially in such a physical position.  Unbelievable in an understatement.

 

Established Numbers

Here are some numbers that are insane.  In the past six seasons, Travis Kelce has not finished under 1000 yards.  His entire career, he has never dipped below 12 yards per reception.  Since 2015, Kelce has never had less than 100 receptions in a season.  He’s also had more than 80 targets six times and double digit touchdowns more than once.  If there is a more consistent tight end in history, the list is virtually non existent.

 

Verdict

Travis Kelce is built different.  He’s already sixth in receiving yards in National Football League history.  The two guys at the top have played twice the amount of career games that Kelce has.  So to say he doesn’t have many years left is ignorant and downright disrespectful.  The same people were telling us to sell Brady six years ago.

 

The value that comes with the name Travis Kelce is unmatched at his position.  There is the new hotness in the form of names like Pitts and Andrews, but we have to wonder if it will last.  I must say, however, despite his greatness and continuing path to excellence, the fantasy community is becoming blind to his value.  Illogical perceptions have made some people lose sight of reality.  And due to this, he is way cheaper than he should be.

 

AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our FINAL stop in the team breakdown by divison is a division that has one of each draft target category. The AFC West has 1 FADE, 1 NEUTRAL, 1 BUY, and 1 BIG BUY. Before we get into the division featuring the reigning Super Bowl Champs, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Los Angeles Chargers

With significant offensive changes, the LA Chargers come into this season as a FADE. Having some very weapons questions of QB play and quality linger, which as an overarching theme matters the most in real and fantasy football.

QB Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert: Deep league priority FAs for matchup streaming. Taylor has shown to be a useful fantasy option in years past but the young gun 1st round rookie, Herbert, is waiting wings for his opportunity to shine.

RB Austin Ekeler: “Ladder Pick”, low RB1, High RB2, 18-20% auction, early round 2, Ekeler remains a PPR monster and without Melvin Gordon in front of him he has tremendous upside. QB Taylor will look to be an efficient passer looking early and often for Ekeler! I’m smashing his name if he is available in the 2nd round!

RB Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley: Both late round pick or $1 deep auction, both are end of bench RB options with Melvin Gordon gone, opportunity knocks, both are talented and present plenty of upside. Even in a lesser offense, opportunity is appealing for fantasy. I prefer Kelley to Jackson but I’m going to keep a close eye on both!

WR Keenan Allen: Low-WR2 to high-WR3, 8-9% Auction, round 5, Tyrod isn’t known for his deep passing game, so that already will limit Allen’s upside. BUT Keenan Allen is an amazing talent and defensive separator that he could make Tyrod life very easy with his silky smooth route running!

Love the player and targeting him despite non-ideal QB situation.

WR Mike Williams: WR5, round 13, 1-2% auction, big play threat may be the latest unappealing piece of this offense with Tyrod under center. Not to mention his shoulder injury may keep him out for the month or so of the season.

(Keenan Allen may be a nice sell high candidate after the first couple weeks)

I like the idea of Mike Williams and the potential of what he can bring to the field but am worried how the QB play may limit his upside and general draft/weekly stock.

TE Hunter Henry: TE1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Henry is a great player when he is healthy! I believe Henry and Ekeler will benefit the most from Tyrod’s style of play. Having said that, I will be drafting a lot of Henry since I value him above his ADP.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders complete their move from the bay to the desert. The Raiders will be NEUTRAL for fantasy purposes for the inaugural Las Vegas season! Young promising talent is there which makes fantasy feasting a possibility.

QB Derek Carr: QB2, deep league priority FA, in the past Carr has been able to be useful for fantasy but the QB position is so deep that it’s likely he won’t be needed outside of a total catastrophe. Good and young weapons surround him, so matchup specific upside is there.

RB Josh Jacobs: RB1, 20-21% auction, round 2, an impressive rookie campaign was capped due to a shoulder injury. He remains the top rusher in this offense, but lacks pass-catching upside with the depth behind him on the roster. He will show why he was a 1st round talent!

RB Jalen Richard:  Late round selection in deep leagues or priority FA. Raiders have potential to be playing from behind, so rostering pass catching options like this may be valuable, especially for PPR.

WR Henry Ruggs: “Ladder Pick”, WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, Las Vegas selected Ruggs as the top WR in the draft. This is quite significant since they passed on Jeudy and Lamb to do so. Ruggs has unique speed and think the team will find creative ways of getting the ball in his hands.

He is a player I will be aggressively targeting in all draft formats. In the back half of drafts if I am able to get someone who I believe can be the next Tyreek Hill, I think it would be foolish to pass up on that kind of opportunity. Best ball target!

WRs Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfroe are both deep league late round stashes. Also worth an end of bench pick in 12 team leagues! Both can be a nice way to round out your bench. Edwards fits perfectly as the X receiver, I am very excited for his potential! Renfroe has PPR upside!

TE Darren Waller: TE1, 4-5% auction, round 8, Waller is somebody that everyone is rooting for. His personal story is a wonderful reminder that football is more than a game but also an opportunity to display personal redemption in magnificent fashion. He could be the focal point of this passing game and be a matchup nightmare for defenses!

Denver Broncos

The Broncos made one thing very clear over the last year: Drew Lock is their man! The Denver offense has some new upgrades which makes their squad a Buy!

QB Drew Lock: QB2, priority FA, because QB is so deep we can look to add Lock for bye week/injury replacement! With a full arsenal around him he is being set up to succeed, let’s hope he is up to the task!

RB Melvin Gordon: RB2, 9-10% auction, round 5, Gordon finds a new home in the same division. Narrative street truthers are salivating at the Broncos-Chargers matchups this season! Gordon is an upgrade to the RB group, but his value will be correlated to Lock’s success!

RB Phillip Lindsay: RB4, 4% auction, round 9-10, Lindsay can still be utilized as a FLEX in a deep league but is a nice bench stash being part of what should be a good offense. He will enter RB2 territory if Gordon were to miss time!

WR Courtland Sutton: WR2, 13-14% auction, round 3, Sutton had a breakout season and became one of the highest ranks risers from 2019 to 2020. Surrounded by good complimentary pieces, some drafters have shied away but I think it will only help him as he should still dominate targets in this offense.

WR Jerry Jeudy: WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, Jeudy somehow lasted to Denver at 15th overall. This was an easy selection for the Broncos as he was arguably the most pro-ready WR prospect in the draft! A great compliment to Sutton, Drew Lock is a lucky man!

WR KJ Hamler: Priority FA, Hamler is a unique talent with amazing speed, another piece of this offense that has cemented Denver’s trust in Drew Lock! Denver got him in the 2nd even after landing Jeudy! Best ball stash, I’m very exciting to see what he is able to do in the NFL!

TE Noah Fant: Low-TE1, 2% auction, round 12, impressive rookie campaigns are rare for TEs but he is very athletic and really adds to the versatility of Denver’s offensive core. I’ll look for him to improve on a successful year 1.

It’s all on Drew Lock, Denver believes that he is their guy. I will not hesitate to pounce on Lock this year, it could payoff in a big way! Not much to lose taking a chance on him as your QB2.

Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning super bowl champs are a BIG BUY! Patrick Mahomes alone gives each piece of the core upside, but upside exists already with high caliber talent surrounding the big-armed Mahomes!

QB Patrick Mahomes: The QB1, my QB1, 10% Auction, round 4, I typically like to wait on QB but Mahomes (like Lamar Jackson) are very tempting if you absolutely love your first 3 picks. A full aresenal surrounds this dynamic thrower. I don’t see any SB hangover in KC!

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: RB1, 24-26% auction, late round 1, CEH was part of the monster LSU national champion team, KC thought so too by selecting him as the 1st RB in the draft! This is significant because of the RB class that he was a part of.

Andy Reid’s RB history speaks for itself! CEH is a pass catching back in an elite offense where he scoring upside for himself as well as rushing upside at the end of games when KC has a big league. He is no-brainer top 10 RB worthy of 1st round selection!

RB Darrel Williams: late round-$1 Auction stash.  We want players in elite offenses such as this! If CEH busts as a rookie or misses time, both become potential FLEX options or more!

WR Tyreek Hill: WR1 (my WR3), 21-22% auction, round 2, Hill is simultaneously a floor and ceiling play each week. He can bust a matchup wide open with his big play and YAC ability! I hope to see a lot of peace signs from him this season!

WRs Mecole Hardman (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 13) and Sammy Watkins (WR5, $1-2 auction, end of bench WR stash) present massive boom bust potential, both are Best Ball targets and will big trade prices throughout the season! Health is Watkins main concern as targets is Hardman’s.

TE Travis Kelce: The TE1, 15-16% auction, round 2, Kelce like Kittle is worth the 2nd round selection, TE is deep but these 2 are in a tier of their own as they can be true difference makers week to week! How is a defense supposed to stop this team?!

High scoring contests seem likely, should be enough feasting to go around but any opposing teams offensive weapons in general have inherent upside against the Chiefs since teams will have to be aggressive if they want to have a shot against KC! Fun will be had if your roster some Chiefs!

Dropping Coin:  The Kansas City Chiefs Spending Spree and It’s Fantasy Impact

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Dropping Coin:  The Kansas City Chiefs Spending Spree and It’s Fantasy Impact

By Tommy Harvey

The Kansas City Chiefs have paid some serious dough over the last 10 days to franchise QB Patrick Mahomes and DT Chris Jones.  The Super Bowl champs made Mahomes the first $500 million man and then turned around and signed Jones to a 4-year $80 million deal with $60 million of that functionally guaranteed.  

The 2020 NFL salary cap is set at $198.2 million, which is up from $188.2 million in 2019.  Since 2013, the cap has steadily risen from $123 million, however the current climate may dictate where that rises (or falls) to in 2021.   With so much uncertainty, how do teams forecast player contracts?  It doesn’t seem like the Chiefs are too worried at the moment.

Patrick Mahomes:

On July 6, the Madden 20 cover boy’s record setting deal was announced.  With a max value of $502,631,905, Mahomes has inked the richest deal in professional sports history.  The 10 year extension will have the 24 year old linked to Kansas City until 2031. 

Here’s a breakdown:

In my opinion, Patrick Mahomes is one of a handful of players in the NFL who is worth whatever his organization wants to pay him.  Chiefs fans pay to go to Arrowhead Stadium to see what incredibleness he has up his sleeve.  The better he performs, and consequently, the better the team performs, the more merchandise fans buy and the more money the franchise makes.  

Chris Jones:

Jones, 26, was on the franchise tag designation for the 2020 season, but had threatened to sit out without a resolution on a new deal.  With Wednesday’s extension deadline looming, the Chiefs struck a deal with the Pro Bowl DT.  Worth up to $80 million, the new contract locks up Jones for four more seasons.  

The champs now have their core all signed through the 2021 season, allowing them to attempt to build the next NFL dynasty.  In 2021, Travis Kelce and Tyrann Mathieu become unrestricted free agents.  Tyreek Hill’s deal runs through 2022 before he becomes a free agent.  What happens then?  Who will be cap casualties when the core players have to be paid...or demand to be paid?

Fantasy Impact:

Sammy Watkins - Watkins is an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season.  The WR is set to make $9 million and could be allowed to walk afterwards.  The 27 year old has played a full 16 games in a season only once...his rookie season of 2014.  He has also only tallied 60 receptions and over 1,000 yards in a season once...2015.  

The question has to be asked...and rightfully so...is the oft injured receiver worth paying $9+ million a year?  With guys like Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson around, Watkins’ time in Kansas City could be coming to an end.

Tyreek Hill - Hill is going to get a massive deal when his contract expires after the 2022 season.  The question is...will that deal come from the Chiefs?   Could they afford his services?  His numerous legal issues have been a concern, and a deal would likely be contingent on him staying out of trouble moving forward.

There is no doubting his on-the-field contributions.  He is one of the best WR in the NFL and his speed is second to none.  The 26 year old Pro Bowler has put up multiple seasons of 75+ catches and 1,100+ yards, and is widely considered a top-5 dynasty WR.  Would he still be considered that if he moved on to a different offense?

Mecole Hardman - The 2nd year WR could be a major beneficiary if fellow pass catcher Sammy Watkins moves on after his contract expires.  In a dynasty league, I would set my sights on Hardman as a trade target.  If he becomes the WR2 in Kansas City after 2020, he could be a major steal.

In 2019, Hardman was drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round.  What that tells me is that they have major plans for him and expect him to be a big part of their future offense.  When Tyreek Hill’s contract runs up after 2022, he could be in line to become the WR1 if Hill moves on.

Damien Williams - Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Miami Dolphins in 2014, Williams signed with KC in 2018 and became a dynamic part of their offense after Kareem Hunt was released.  In 2019, he was a key component in the Chiefs Super Bowl comeback victory over the San Francisco 49ers.  

The Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft, seemingly spelling doom for Damien Williams fantasy owners.  Williams’ current contract is up after this season, and could be another player forced to find employment elsewhere.  

Travis Kelce - Kelce is a future Hall of Famer.  He has had over 1,000 yards the last four consecutive seasons, and has had at least 862 yards every season since he took over as the starting TE for the Chiefs.  His current deal is set to expire after ther 2021 season and he will be 31 years old.  

With Kelce getting older, will the Chiefs try to re-sign him to a big deal?  With Tyreek Hill’s deal expiring in 2022, will they look to pay him instead?

So many variables will end up contributing to who stays in Kansas City and who ultimately will leave.  One thing is for sure though, the Chiefs will have at least a couple more seasons of high octane offense as they look to repeat as Super Bowl champs.

 

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