Travis Etienne

Dynasty League’s Closing Windows

by

Dynasty League's Closing Windows

By Joel Wirth

Dynasty players are all about the long view, but player values are fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a divisive back-end WR2 (although, I seem to recall someone extolling his virtues a while back on this very site https://dynastyprosfootball.com/objects-in-the-rear-view-mirroramon-ra-st-brown/), now he’s trading for no less than a 2023 1st plus a productive player. Paying market rate for a player today can be a clear win next week if that player’s value takes off in-between. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few players who you may want to look into trading for now before their value goes up and their trade window closes.

The Youngsters

Treylon Burks/Chris Olave

Dynasty veterans know the rule of thumb with rookie receivers is let them struggle early, then trade for them right before they learn the speed of the game, get in sync with their QB, and they start producing fantasy points. Garrett Wilson has shown us that sometimes happens sooner than we expect, even if they’re not Ja’Marr Chase-level talents. Burks and Olave could be the next two in line for feature roles. Tennessee looks like a flat out bad team and Derrick Henry looking like he’s running through molasses should lead to more passing volume and more garbage time than we’re used to with this team. Olave’s advanced metrics show a star in the making. Jameis Winston’s hideous early season inefficiency is the only thing holding him back right now. Neither of these two are exactly cheap, they still have most of their rookie draft shine, but like Wilson, they’re one elite game away from being highly coveted assets.

CeeDee Lamb/Kyle Pitts

Going into the season, Lamb and Pitts were two of the most valuable dynasty properties you could have; young, supremely talented, in great situations, and in Pitts’ case, playing an exceptionally scarce position. Real or perceived, their early season struggles have made them available for costs that would have been unthinkable on Labor Day. In one of my leagues, Pitts was traded for Darren Waller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That offer would have been laughed at and insta-rejected not that long ago. At this point, it really can’t hurt to ask and see if they’re available at all. These two are Burks & Olave on steroids. One good game and they go back to being nigh-untouchable.

Travis Etienne

During best ball draft season, Etienne was the RB hotness. Two weeks into the season, James Robinson is unexpectedly back and Etienne is being benched in fantasy. That sound you hear is BUY LOW sirens going off. Much like Cam Akers, Robinson coming back from an Achilles injury so soon is a great story, but he’s been very inefficient, averaging less than 4 YPC. His value is being entirely propped up by touchdowns and Etienne’s high profile sure-touchdown drop on 4th down in the opener. Once those normalize, Etienne will go back to being the RB to own in Jacksonville, which will be a good thing, because…

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is like Old Faithful right now. You can feel the rumbling under your feet, you know the explosion is coming, you just don’t know when. Once the geyser blows, TLaw will jump up to and potentially surpass Joe Burrow status in superflex. He’s still the elite, generational prospect we saw in college and expected on Draft Day ‘21. Urban Meyer wrecked his rookie season, but even through that haze you can still see the Andrew Luck upside. If there are still doubters, relieve them of their burden.

Elijah Moore

Yes, Garrett Wilson is this week’s WR hotness, but don’t forget about Moore. He’s no less talented because he has another talented teammate in the WR room. Zach Wilson is due back imminently and we know he has more time together with Moore than Wilson. Plus, if (Zach) Wilson can live up to his draft pedigree, there will be plenty of room at the table in this offense for both to eat.

The Seasoned Vets

De’Andre Hopkins

This is simple math. After Week 3, he’ll be half way through his suspension and his managers will take an “I’ve held this long, why should I sell now” attitude, and deservedly so. If the DHop manager in your league is off to a slow start, now is the perfect time to go after him.

Travis Kelce

A 5/50/0 line in a prime time game is as bad as Kelce’s ever going to look, and for a Tight End, it’s still really not bad at all. You probably have until exactly 1:00 PM EDT Sunday to get him at the most modest of discounts. Be sure to mention how positively elderly Kelce is looking in your proposal.

Chris Godwin

The hamstring injury is legitimately the best thing that could have happened to him, forcing the Bucs to give his reconstructed knee additional time to heal. Like DHop, if his manager is off to a slow start and you can afford the downtime, see what it would take to get Godwin onto your roster.

D.J. Moore

He’s the same guy he’s always been. Carolina’s offense has unsurprisingly struggled coming together early, despite the expectations of default QB improvement. If Moore is the victim of over-inflated pre-season expectations, get him now before the Panthers pull it together.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of guys who are what they’ve always been… You’ll likely have to wait until next week to make this deal go down since he played Thursday, but he has double digit targets in every game so far. The Steelers now have a “mini-bye” to self-scout and figure out how to start scoring touchdowns. Coming back against the Jets won’t hurt that effort, but it may tank your chances of trading for Diontae at value once he goes off.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

We end with a low cost/no cost long term stash. The window isn’t closing on this one so much as slowly shimmying down the sill. DPJ’s deep threat talents are a terrible match for Jacoby Brissett’s game-manager arm. Once Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, look for him to get DPJ involved in the offense in ways he currently cannot be.

Pick Your Poison

by

Pick Your Poison

CeeDee Lamb/Travis Etienne or D’Andre Swift/Deebo Samuel

By Tim Lazenby

 

Every once in a while a question really grabs you. In the fantasy football realm there are many common questions like, “Should I draft this guy?” or “Who’s your top sleeper?” but none are more compelling than asking do you go with Player A or Player B. To further weigh down the simplicity of the question, asking for Package A or Package B can be quite interesting. There are a plethora of considerations to mull over when making these decisions and this becomes even more difficult to ascertain when dynasty comes into play.

Daydreaming about the 2022-23 NFL fantasy season is the norm for me and perusing Twitter appeases this longing to some degree. In my swiping I came across a dandy question from fellow fantasy football enthusiast, @LosingSucks and he posed a question to chew on:

Pick your combo: 0.5 PPR

CD Lamb + Etienne
Swift + Deebo

Feel free to go to his Twitter page and answer for yourself, but if you do, I’m hoping the results will be just as split for you as they were for me when I answered. With 74 votes in, I chose the leading side which was only ahead at a ratio of 53% to 47%. I, like many of you, find myself staring at lopsided results when I entertain these questions, but I was pleasantly surprised to see the results so divided. After all, it was a hard one for me to decide.

So, just for fun, here are some of the criteria going through my schmuck brain when choosing the proverbial A or B:

 

Age

This poll features four young guns, but unlike the other three, who happen to all be 23 years old, Deebo Samuel is past the midway point of his twenties. At 26 years old, Deebo certainly isn’t old or even close to it, but it’s a factor that has to be considered. So although it’s not a deal breaker, first points go to CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne.

 

Current Dynasty Rank Value

Now this one is not an exact science, but in this circumstance, it becomes easier as the positions on either side of the packages are the same. Personally, here are my ranks at their given positions:

CeeDee Lamb - WR3 Deebo Samuel - WR5
Travis Etienne - RB17 D’Andre Swift - RB3

I’m just one guy, but from where I sit Etienne is the odd man out here. And even though all four are studs on their respective teams, Etienne just doesn’t carry the same weight as the other three involved, leaving the edge going to Deebo Samuel and D’Andre Swift.

 

Injury Concern

With these four guys, injuries have been a big problem thus far. Of the foursome, CeeDee Lamb is the only one who hasn’t struggled to stay on the field. And although you have to give some props to the Deebo/Swift side because Etienne hasn’t even been on the field due to the lisfranc injury in his rookie season, I give Etienne the benefit of the doubt that this could be a one time problem until proven otherwise. The constant lagging issues on the side of Deebo and Swift are too concerning to not side with CeeDee and Etienne.

Team Importance

We all know that these four players are essential to their respective teams’ success. All four players are top featured options in each offense, but it is important to note that the recent additions to Detroit’s offense will make it harder for Swift to shine like before. Not to say Swift is plunging down my ranks, but I don’t see him as bright and shiny as I did before. Although it’s a close one, I give the edge to CeeDee and Etienne.

 

Gut Feeling

When it comes to fantasy football, your gut feeling has to be considered. For some, this is the only reaction to go by, but oftentimes, this becomes the tie breaker for me. For this particular scenario, if you asked me for my gut reaction, I would have chosen Deebo and Swift as my winners, but after going through my criteria, the gut feeling isn’t enough. This is one of the closest ones I’ve seen yet, at least for me, but I’m going with the CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne side. It’s ok to not trust your gut sometimes.

If any of you want to be featured in an article like this, feel free to hit me up on twitter. DM me @NFLazenby and I’d love to weigh in on it!

Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

by

Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

By Tim Lazenby

 

In fantasy football, tough choices are part of the job of an everyday manager.  Oftentimes, we struggle with whom to draft, trade or even drop completely.  This is magnified when two players are so close in value.  Choosing between two players like that can ravage the brain and perhaps make or break your season.  In dynasty, it’s even worse than standard because choosing the wrong guy means you are stuck with the mistake for years and potentially losing out on the talent of the better man to win you multiple championships.

Today, let’s dive into a discussion about two young running backs who missed the chance to play for your squad last season.  In a head to head matchup for dynasty glory, only one can survive.  Will it be Los Angeles running back, Cam Akers or Jacksonville Jaguars running back, Travis Etienne?  As they both missed time and Etienne hasn’t had the chance to show what he can do at the professional level, we’re going to look at the college numbers.

Rushing and Receiving Numbers Comparison

Cam Akers Rushing and Receiving

Year G Att Yrds Avg TDs FumL Rec Yrds Avg TDs
2017 13 194 1025 5.3 7 1 16 116 7.3 1
2018 12 161 706 4.4 6 3 23 145 6.3 2
2019 11 231 1144 5.0 14 3 30 225 75 4

Travis Etienne Rushing and Receiving

Year G Att Yrds Avg TDs FumL Rec Yrds Avg TDs
2017 13 107 766 7.2 13 1 5 57 11.4 0
2018 15 204 1658 8.1 24 1 12 78 6.5 2
2019 15 207 1614 7.8 19 2 37 432 11.7 4
2020 12 168 914 5.4 14 4 48 588 12.3 2

Now, we have to take these numbers with a grain of salt.  The statistics in college will not necessarily transition at the professional level, but they also can’t be ignored completely.  It’s important to note that Etienne had one extra year at the college level, so that could be an advantage or disadvantage according to how you view that.

We also have to take into account the programs they played for.  I think it’s obvious that Etienne has the greater numbers by some margin, but he also played for a much better team.  Even without Trevor Lawrence, Etienne still enjoyed success splitting the backfield in his rookie season, going 10-3.  But once Trevor Lawrence came to Clemson, in the three seasons they played together, their record was 39-3.  This level of success certainly helped Etienne’s game.

Cam Akers, on the other hand, was not so fortunate in the school that he played for.  His rookie season was spent with a rookie quarterback and over the three years at Florida State, their record was 18-20.  This meant that Akers would have a much harder time establishing the run or even getting optimal play time on offense.  While we can’t lean on this logic completely when comparing the two, it is still important to look at.

Now that college is out of the way, it’s important to look at the teams they will play for in the NFL.  While Akers is going to someone he is familiar with in Sean McVay, Etienne is making use of Doug Pedeson in his second swing at NFL coaching.  It’s important to see how these two coaches have used their running backs at the professional level.  After all, both Pederson and McVay have coached five seasons in the NFL and both have only coached for one team.  Let’s discuss what that looked like.

Sean McVay’s NFL running back history

McVay came into the NFL extremely blessed with Todd Gurley at his disposal.  In his first season especially, Sean McVay used every ounce that Gurley could give.  His 279 rush attempts were better than the next closest running back at 63; the definition of a workhorse back.  He wasn’t done in the receiving game either, with Gurley leading the team’s running back in targets at 87 and the closest competition had 11.  In fact, Gurley was second on the entire team in targets.

The next two seasons with Gurley leading the way were more of the same, but as time progressed the usage, while still dominant, went down.  You have to question if Sean McVay is leery of using his star running back so heavily moving forward.  The next two seasons were led by none other than Cam Akers and Sony Michel.  It seems likely that Akers would have led last season if not for the injury.  But, unlike Gurley, the usage was not nearly as dominant.  McVay’s lead back almost split the rush attempts and the targets were not even first on the team in the running back room.  Can we expect more of the same moving forward?  Is Cam Akers a workhorse back or a 1A from now on?

Doug Pederson’s NFL running back history

Unlike McVay, Pederson has never shown faith in a typical workhorse back.  Although there is always a starting running back with him, he tends to use a split backfield.  It’s actually amazing that over his NFL tenure, he’s only had one running back as the starter in more than one season in Miles Sanders.  But, when your best option is Ryan Matthews, LaGarrett Blount and Josh Adams, you make do with what you have; no disrespect intended.

Now, can we blame Doug Pederson’s running back choices on his coaching alone or is it partial to the talent available?  Truthfully, moving forward, it will be interesting to see what he does in his fresh start with Jacksonville.  Unlike McVay also, even with a “starter” the rushing share was not great; and with the targets, it’s even worse.  It seemed as though he really liked the idea of a smasher and a receiving threat not being one and the same.

Conclusion

Lastly, we have to talk about the opportunity for each running back on the team for whom they are employed.  I don’t see much in the way of competition for Cam Akers, and now that James Robinson is on the shelf, Travis Etienne’s path to dominance is all but assured.  The teams they play for are also vastly different.  The Rams just won a Super Bowl and have no signs of giving up their championship moving forward.  The Jaguars, on the other hand, finished dead last yet again.  Will McVay ease Cam Akers because the team doesn’t need him as badly?  Will Pederson finally make use of a workhorse back because of the state of his team?

When considering the talent, it is too close to call.  With all the data and arguments, it comes down to the overall team value.  With Akers as a second round pick and the plethora of talent around him, the likelihood of usage is not as high as Etienne.  The Jaguars invested a first round pick in Etienne, making it harder not to showcase him.  Add to that the connection between him and Trevor Lawrence, the choice is easier.  While it has been documented that Trevor Lawrence wasn’t instrumental in bringing Travis Etienne to the Jaguars, now that he’s there I see the cornerstone quarterback wanting to make use of his college teammate as much as possible.

If you are drafting or trading for either, both are good choices.  But in the deathmatch, there is only one winner:

Travis Etienne

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

by

Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

By Darren Smith

 

The 2020 and 2021 draft classes were loaded with some promising young Running Backs. Unfortunately, the injury bug waits for no man. Three big names drafted in the early rounds the last two years had their seasons cut short and had Dynasty Managers asking questions on what to do with their high 1st round picks. Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, and Cam Akers all missed almost the entirety of last season with serious injuries, but their outlook on the 2022 season is in question. I’m here to put your mind at ease, and these injuries have created huge BUY opportunities with these talented backs.

 

Cam Akers

Cam Akers was the first domino to fall in the laundry list of injuries that happened in the 2021 Preseason. Akers tore his Achilles during the Rams training camp, leaving his sophomore season in jeopardy. Cam was drafted 52nd overall in the 2020 draft and had a promising rookie season leaving managers hungry for more as his fantasy capital rose. When news was announced that Akers tore his Achilles, it broke the hearts of many managers as this injury has one of the highest impacts on future NFL careers based on history.

However, modern medicine has progressed, and Akers had a successful surgery and rehab as he was able to return in Week 18, and the Rams postseason. While his box score didn’t turn many heads, the truth was in the film. Akers looked explosive in the minimal carries he was given, and his speed remained the same. Most managers were pleasantly surprised as he didn’t regress as much as initially thought as it was pretty much a miracle he came back this season at all.

The Rams went on to win the Super Bowl as they went “All In” this season. The RB position will have vacancy after free agency with Sony Michel likely to part ways, and Darrell Henderson being on the last year of his contract. This paves a direct path to a bell-cow role for Akers as he has all off season to continue recovery. There aren't too many players that I am more excited to see come back to NFL action than Cam Akers. With managers panicked about the stigma of an Achilles injury, Akers is being shopped around in most leagues for a discount. While there is some doubt he will ever return to true form, the sheer volume and workload that he will carry into 2022 will be enough. Akers is a strong buy and should exceed all expectations when he fully recovers.

 

Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie campaign with a Lisfranc injury in his left foot. Drafted 25th overall in 2021 by Jacksonville and coming off a stellar season at Clemson, Etienne had huge buzz coming into last season. Dynasty managers had to spend high draft picks on Etienne in hopes of becoming a bell-cow right out the gate. Etienne was only in the 2nd week of Preseason when it was declared he would miss the year, so managers didn’t get any chance to get a gauge on his production, and ultimately his fantasy value.

To me, this injury can be spun in a positive way. The Jacksonville Jaguars were a complete mess the entire season with new head coach Urban Meyer, who thankfully was fired before the season ended. There were obvious growing pains with the rookie Quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, leaving the offense stagnant and in the bottom tier of the league. Etienne may have dodged a bullet in 2021 as things are looking positive for the upcoming season. He has progressed significantly since the initial injury, publicly stating “I definitely feel like as of now I'll be ready to go for training camp.” While injured, Travis has been studying the game and learning a new offense with his former Clemson teammate Lawrence. This dynamic duo should make some noise this year with some experience under their belts. Not to mention change in the staff, with the Jags hiring Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson. 

Travis was a top pick in rookie drafts across the board, and obviously his value declined after the injury. If you haven’t already, Etienne is a perfect buy candidate for the upcoming season. Although he is progressing well, season ending injuries are never taken lightly by managers and leave doubt as to whether they will ever return to true form. Based on his young age, modern medicine and training, and recovery of Lisfranc injuries, I have strong confidence that Etienne will come back just as explosive as his record-breaking days in Clemson. Go after some worried owners with late 1st round pick offers. If you currently own Etienne, don’t take any low ball offers - holding is the right move as his value will shoot up when Travis retakes the field.

 

JK Dobbins

The NFL and fantasy managers didn’t even get a chance to breathe before the next devastating injury to a young RB in Baltimore. Dobbins tore his ACL during the final Preseason game of the 2021 season and ruined some Redraft leagues seconds after the news broke. Poised for an excellent sophomore year, managers were devastated being so close to the start of the regular season. Dobbins finished as the RB 23 in PPR leagues during his rookie campaign, finishing the final game with 160 rushing yards and two touchdowns. 

Being the 55th pick in the 2020 draft, Dobbins was another asset with high rookie draft capital in dynasty leagues. Luckily, an ACL tear may take time to heal, but in recent years it has had little effect on the remainder of NFL players careers. The Ravens had incredibly bad luck in 2021 with significant injuries to most of their skill players, including QB Lamar Jackson. With all players returning after recovery this offseason, Dobbins comes back to the Number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. With promising pass catching abilities, Dobbins has all the potential in the world to be a top back.

Dobbins had successful surgery six months ago, and every piece of news since has said rehab is going as well as it could be. GM Eric Decosta publicly stated “we are very, very confident that he will come back and be the type of player that he was two years ago. This should give you no doubt that the 23 year old coming into this 3rd season will be heavily utilized to his potential. JK Dobbins is a buy at the right price. Given the lack of RB talent in the 2022 class, high draft picks can be traded to acquire Dobbins. He should be a strong hold if you already have him on your rosters.

 

Conclusion

While all three Running Backs have had devastating injuries that caused them to miss the majority of the 2021 season, all signs point to full recovery and full workloads in 2022. Don’t let injury news scare you into avoiding these backs. They are all buy candidates, and should be targeted in the early rounds of startups as I have seen them fall over some guys that just won’t have the same production. Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins will be an integral part in the future of NFL Running Backs. What do you think? Are you concerned about reinjury, volume, or something else? 

 

Let me know your thoughts on Twitter, @FFBirdGang.

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

by

by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

Landing Spot Doesn’t Matter. Najee Harris is the RB1.

by

Najee Harris is the RB1 and Landing Spot Doesn’t Matter 

By: Collin Kral

Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams are the consensus top three running backs in the 2021 draft class. However, As dynasty owners, it is important to explore why Najee Harris is the top guy no matter what happens at the NFL Draft. All three of these players have been able to show incredible talent at the collegiate level, but what really matters is which players are able to translate what same success to the NFL. 

Najee Harris 

Height: 6’2” Weight: 230 lbs. 

Najee Harris was highly recruited out of high school but truly exploded onto the scene in his junior season. Harris racked up 1,224 yards and 13 touchdowns on 209 carries while adding a 27/304/7 receiving line. Expected to enter the draft, he was positioned behind Taylor, Swift, and Dobbins.  He made the decision to return to Alabama for his senior year.  Not only did he improve his stats drastically, but also his overall ability as a running back. Harris put up an incredible state line of 1,466 yards and 26 touchdowns on 251 carries with a 43/425/4 receiving line.

However, this is not what made me fall in love with Harris. He has the ability to be a true three-down back in the NFL. His footwork at his size and his ability to make defenders miss is truly impressive.  Also with his size, what truly sets him apart is his capabilities in the passing game. Harris became an effective pass blocker and is also able to catch the ball out of the backfield. As I have watched tape on him, I have had to dig to try and find any weaknesses or reasons to question his ability at the next level. The conclusion that I came to and I am forced to ask myself is can Harris produce at the NFL level when he is not running behind the best offensive line in the nation? My opinion is, yes. Harris has shown at the collegiate level that he is willing to fight for extra yards whether it be 20 yards downfield or 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage and I do not see that changing when he plays on Sundays. 

Travis Etienne 

Height: 5’10” Weight: 205 lbs. 

Travis Ettiene has had nothing but a spectacular collegiate career. In his sophomore year he had 1,658 yards 24 touchdowns on 204 carries adding a 12/78/2 receiving line and in his junior year he had 1,614 yards and 19 touchdowns on 207 carries while adding an improved 37/432/4 receiving line. After his junior year, I think everyone would have guessed he would have joined the highly touted 2020 running back draft class, however he decided to return to college for his senior season. In a shortened season, Ettiene added 914 yards and 14 touchdowns on 168 carries and a 48/588/2 receiving line to add to his impressive collegiate career. Ettiene has been arguably the most feared player in open space in college football since he began playing on Saturdays.

The question remains...can he do this on Sundays?

I do not believe there is anyone who questions Ettiene’s ability as a runner in open space and he has certainly shown improvements as a pass catcher. My biggest concerns are if he will be able to be a three down back in the NFL. While watching tape I could not help but notice his tendency to go down on first contact when running between the tackles and sometimes on the edge when he did not have a clear angle. I am also concerned with his ability to pass protect in the NFL.  His talent is not in question.  However, I do fear the realistic chance he is not the three-down back everyone is hoping for. 

Javonte Williams 

Height: 5’10” Weight: 220 lbs. 

Javonte Williams had a solid sophomore year at UNC with 933 yard and 5 touchdowns on 166 carries adding a 17/176/1 receiving line. However, as it happens with at least one player each year, Williams has jumped up on everyone's boards from out of nowhere after posting a junior season stat line of 1,140 yards and 19 touchdowns on 157 carries adding a solid 25/305/3 receiving line. While watching Williams tape, what has impressed me the most, is his contact balance. There are not many plays where you see him go down on first contact or even second in many cases.

Williams was another player, a lot like Harris, where I struggled to find things that I was concerned about in his transition to the NFL. My biggest note as to why I do not believe there is a case scenario in which he passes Harris, is that he does not have the same explosiveness. Williams was certainly able to show his big play capabilities through the run and passing game, but I did not notice him hit the holes between the tackles in the same way that Harris did.  Another somewhat concerning thing was his the fact he was in a split backfield with fellow draft prospect Michael Carter.  I won't harp on that too much, but one does have to wonder if he is indeed a workhorse back.

Why we should not let history repeat itself?

Over the past few drafts, we have all made some notable mistakes across the dynasty community by allowing landing spots to influence our decisions. A notable player, Nick Chubb, was drafted in 2018 by the Cleveland Browns. Since Carlos Hyde was considered the starting running back, Nick Chubb slowly slid down dynasty players' boards. Chubb was still drafted early in most drafts, but fell behind players he was more talented than (i.e. Royce Freeman) because he did not have as generous of a landing spot.

In 2019, A.J. Brown was selected by the Tennessee Titans. The Titans were not an attractive landing spot because of their low passing volume and the lack of success Corey Davis had at that point in his career. Many believed that Brown was potentially the most well-rounded wide receiver in the draft, however his landing spot did not appear to be favorable. I

n 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was selected by the Kansas City Chiefs and soared up draft boards to become many dynasty players number one pick. Pre-draft, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was behind Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and...in some eyes...Cam Akers. As we all found out, Edwards-Helaire disappointed many teams that drafted him with the number one overall pick. This is not to say that CEH can’t have a terrific career, but many wish they would have taken Taylor, Swift, or Dobbins if they had the opportunity. 

Hopefully, after evaluating each player and opening up old wounds, we will not make the mistake of passing on Najee Harris. We often put too much weight on landing spots and situations we believe are more favorable, instead of trusting a player's talent. This offseason it is important to remember to draft talent instead of situation and “what could be”. 

You can follow mer on Twitter @collinkral