Tom Brady

Replacing Watson

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Replacing Watson

By Joseph Goodwin

Now that we know there is a 6 game suspension for Deshaun Watson (which appears he will accept), how do fantasy managers proceed in drafting Watson?

First of all, be prepared for any draft that is about to happen, that the Watson stock is going to skyrocket.  I anticipate seeing Watson’s value rise to a low end QB 1 in the next few days; QB 10 or higher off the board.

If you are targeting Watson as your long term QB 1, before drafting your short term starter, consider the following:

Risk Aversion Level 1-3 (you want little risk)

You need a viable QB 1.  You cannot throw away half your season waiting for Watson to return.  You will need a legitimate starting quarterback to maintain a 4-2 or 5-1 pace to start the season.  Going 3-3 (or worse) does not bode well for your playoff chances in a 12 game regular season.  Instead, I would target the likes of : Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers. These choices are safe, reliable starting QB 1’s, but may require an investment earlier in drafts to secure than the scenarios below.  

Risk Aversion Level 4-6 (you don’t mind some risk)

You need a viable QB 1, but have a little more room for volatility.  In this scenario, you may be able to wait a tad longer on your QB 1 and target Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford.  Each QB will provide stable, fantasy point production through game 6 until Watson returns.  This scenario allows you to spend more of your early round draft capital on RB, WR to maximize your team’s scoring potential.  I excluded Derek Carr from this group due to his week 6 bye. This plan gives you an extra round or two from the 12 game plan to add depth to your other starting positions.

Threat Level Midnight

This option provides the most opportunity to swing for the fences and can include players like: Tua Tagovaiola, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence.  This plan offers the chance to load up on RB, WR, and TE; with a potential start: RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR, RB, WR before even thinking about the QB position. This plan can be a huge upside play.  A manager can plan on having Watson for 7 games before the playoffs, with the hopes of Tua, Justin, or Trevor provide adequate early season production to keep the team at 3-3 before Deshaun returns.

In all of these scenarios, Watson returning for game 7 against the Ravens should be the start to high end fantasy production from all of your starting positions.

My favorite among these scenarios is Matthew Stafford.  He provides solid QB play with a small amount of risk. My second favorite is Tua Tagovailoa.  Tua offers a solid 6 week opening and the added bonus of playing the Bears during Watson’s bye week.

In any of these scenarios, your risk tolerance and early round build are crucial to how you approach what QB to pair with Watson.  

Deshaun Watson could very well be a league winner if you find the proper compliment at QB.

Know your settings, schedule, and evaluate your tolerance to volatility in making this decision.

And win that title!

Veterans and Dynasty Value

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Veterans and Dynasty Value

By Tim Lazenby

It’s impossible to overlook the effect of Father Time in fantasy football when it comes to dynasty format.  But just because a player isn’t as young as he once was, it doesn’t mean his value is nil.  I’m going to give you three players at each skilled position to target knowing full well my projected shelf life of elite play.  Let’s begin with the tight ends.

Tight Ends

The fall off age for a player depends on position and at tight end, the magical age is 28.  Although there are rarities, statistics show that after the age of 27, you see less tight ends dominating and the drop off in contribution beginning.  Let me give you one veteran to target for this year, one who will be good for a couple seasons and one who will be good for three or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Gerald Everett (28) is a good target for this category.  While he’s not in the upper echelon of tight ends, his value should go way up now that he’s with Justin Herbert and Co.  I do fear that he’s a temporary fix, but when he is priced at TE21 (166 overall), the price doesn’t get much better.  If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they love to throw.  And this should be exploited even more as this will be the best offensive tight end he’s played with.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Zach Ertz (31) is a great target if you’re looking for a guy with a couple years of solid fantasy play.  It may surprise some to know that after the trade to Arizona, Zach Ertz was the TE6 on the season.  And while Marquise Brown hurts his value, I don’t think Ertz will subside greatly.  It’s also going to take a couple seasons for Trey McBride to claw his way to the top of the depth chart, but even when he does, Ertz has shown he can share a field with a partner.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Call me crazy, but I think we still have tons of time left to appreciate the legend of Travis Kelce (32).  A unicorn in his own rite, Kelce has been nothing but dominant since day one.  With the receiving room having been overhauled in Kansas City, there is no doubt in my mind that Kelce will be targeted more now than ever.  Lastly, for those scared off by his age, legends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have both played over twice the amount of career games as Kelce.  While that may not be a guarantee of how long Kelce will play, he’s certainly got lots of time left.

Wide Receiver

For me, the magical age for fall off when it comes to wide receiver is 29.  There is a rapid decline once you cross over into the 30s, but that doesn’t mean that all players are dead in the water after their twenties.  Let’s throw three wide receivers, at least 29 years old, at you who are still elite in dynasty.

Very Relevant For Next Year

There’s a lot that makes fantasy managers nervous about Robert Woods (30) moving forward.  Just coming off injury and moving to a new system can be nerve wracking, but the price is right.  Despite competition in Treylon Burks, that’s where the list ends.  It also helps Woods’ case that stud Derrick Henry is coming off an injury himself, so they can’t pound the rock as hard as they want.  At WR38 (101 overall), his price has never been this good since his days in Buffalo.  Treylon will take over, make no mistake, but this season Robert Woods has a real shot at WR2 status.

He’s Got a Couple Years

With my second Charger in this article, we can’t overlook the glaring value of Keenan Allen (30).  Since 2018, Keenan Allen is the only wide receiver to get over 130 targets every season.  The early years with injuries haven’t been forgotten for some, so take advantage.  And make no mistake, this receiver room belongs to Keenan Allen, not Mike Williams.  He’s also being drafted in the 30s in some circumstances.  Go after a manager who only sees him as a one year player and take Allen all the way to the championship.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Davante Adams (29) is the only 99 wide receiver on Madden.  And even though many people disagree with many ratings, most agree on this one.  That being said, some are concerned now that Davante is going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.  I’m going to go on record and state that talent is talent.  Adams is special and he’ll shine no matter where he goes.  It also doesn’t hurt that I think Carr is underrated.  I can’t see a world in which Davante Adams isn’t elite for at least another 3-5 years and hopefully you can’t either.

Running Backs

Everyone knows that the shelf life is the shortest with the running back.  Being the most physical position in the league, it makes complete sense.  It’s also the hardest to find true value.  Once a running back hits 26 years old, I begin to get nervous.  Here is a list of three running backs, 27 or older, to consider under the previous noted criteria.

Very Relevant for Next Year

The list of running backs is more sparse than other positions.  Ezekiel Elliott (27) is a name this season, in dynasty, that many managers are treating like a ghost.  It makes sense as 2021 was his worst year to date, but let’s not forget the situation the man is in.  It is true that Tony Pollard is chomping at the bit, but the reality is that the Cowboys are far too financially invested in Zeke to not showcase him.  He still also plays behind arguably the best O-line in the league and the passing options have decreased from last year.  Zeke has never been cheaper.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Going back to back and featuring Titans, I’m going with Derrick Henry (28) here.  I can’t recall a more dominant runner in recent history than Henry.  A giant among mortals, Henry broke many hearts as he went down with injury last season.  And while I don’t think he’ll be up to speed immediately, it won’t take forever.  The cupboards are also not overflowing with running backs to take a stab at his crown.  In redraft, he’s still quite expensive, but in dynasty he’s ripe for the picking.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

I’d be lying if I thought any running back over 26 could be a surefire bet to fit this category, but if you’re forcing my hand, I’m going right back to the Chargers in Austin Ekeler (27).  I know I’m super pro-Chargers here, but there is good reason to be.  If the Chargers hadn’t drafted Isaiah Spiller, I’d be more nervous, but this gives shelf life to Ekeler.  Now he doesn’t have to be on the field all the time and he can be used in far less physical situations.  Much like Henry, in redraft the value is high, but in dynasty, you can still make a profit.

Quarterbacks

Lastly, we move on to the most critical role in all of sports.  In fantasy, especially if you are playing 2 QB or superflex, hitting the right value on quarterbacks is essential.  The longevity of a quarterback is the best of the bunch, but that also makes it harder to take advantage of a good value.  Once a quarterback hits 33 years old, I get leery.  But, have no fear, as I am going to give you three quarterbacks to go for in dynasty who are 34 year old or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Well, this category was much easier than the others as there are only four starting quarterbacks that are 34 or older.  The answer to this first one is quite simple.  Although Tom Brady is one I’d take for sure for next year’s value, I’m going Aaron Rodgers (38) because I want a chance at more years.  Though Rodgers is signed for multiple years, I never quite trust him.  And for that reason, if you’re only focused on winning the championship, he’s a great target.   With many worried managers just wanting him off their plate and willing to sacrifice the value, the time is now to go for A-Rod in dynasty.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Although for many young fans, Matt Ryan (37) is all they’ve ever known of Atlanta, he’s getting a fresh start in Indianapolis.  And while he isn’t the MVP he once was, there’s still plenty left in the tank.  With no ready option for the Colts under center, Matt Ryan will have a few years to show off his skills.  And as the QB21 (151 overall) in drafts, there are plenty of managers not seeing his full value.  He’s one of the few late quarterbacks with the upside of a QB1.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

It should come to no surprise that Matthew Stafford (34) will be the winner of this category.  Even if he wasn’t elite, which he is, his Super Bowl win will give him ample time to stick around in one of the league’s best offenses for years to come.  Like previous entries in this article, the value may not be there in redraft, but in dynasty, Matthew Stafford may have the biggest value and upside of any quarterback in the league.

Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

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Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

By Darren Smith

Let’s be honest, the Buccaneers were not on everyone’s short list to win Super Bowl LV, yet Tom Brady still finds a way. The Bucs had an up and down offensive year, but ended up 7th in total offense in the NFL in 2020. Bruce Arians stayed true to his pass heavy attack posting the 2nd most total passing yards in the league with 4626, falling just short of Kansas City.  As usual, the run game struggled with only 1519 total rushing yards - 28th in the NFL. With free agency upon us, there are going to be a lot of moving parts on the Bucs offense which means big implications for Dynasty managers. Here’s a breakdown of each position to help you decide what Tampa Bay skill positions you should Buy, Sell, or Hold.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady - Buy/Hold

Tom Brady is coming back for his 22nd season in the NFL on the last year of his contract with Tampa Bay. The 43 year old finished as QB7 in 2020 and continued his elite numbers with over 4600 passing yards and 40 TDs. There’s not much talk in Dynasty leagues about Brady due to his age, but the value is still there. If you own Tom, you might as well keep him for the 2021 season as you will only return some scraps in a trade. If you are desperate for a QB and have a shot at the championship, go out and buy Tom for a small price as a nice filler for a future QB.

RUNNING BACKS

Leonard Fournette - Hold

Fournette finished as the RB 35 in the 2020 season - but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Leonard missed four games due to injury, and had a split role with Ronald Jones - playing about 50-60% of snaps in the majority of games. When he was active, Fournette still showed explosiveness and a continued ability to break tackles down the field. Even with his limited playing time, he still managed to catch 37 passes out of the backfield giving him some value in PPR leagues. Playoff Lenny made a big splash in the postseason this year showing that he deserved to be on a Super Bowl winning team, but is on the last year of his contract with the Bucs and is now a UFA. Expect him to move on from Tampa Bay and to sign to a new team by the beginning of next season. At 26 years old, he can still be a big fantasy impact on an RB needy organization. Fournette is a firm hold in Dynasty, or a buy if you’re feeling risky.

Ronald Jones - Sell

Let’s start by saying it’s hard to be a RoJo fan. He’s not much of a pass catcher, low utilization in the Red Zone, and has some fumbling issues making him a thorn in Bruce Arians' side. But Jones actually had a good 2020 season. Finishing as the RB20 in PPR leagues, Ronald posted nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 7 TDs. There were some moments however that left a sour taste in the mouths of the managers that started him in Weeks 8 & 9 for example. Rushing only 10 total times over 2 games, Jones scored an average of 3.5 points over these weeks. When RoJo makes a mistake, Arians pulls him and holds that grudge for the remainder of the game. This wild inconsistency makes managers lose confidence in starting him week to week, and don’t expect this to change in the near future. Capitalize on Ronald’s 2020 season and sell him in your Dynasty leagues.

Who would you rather own? Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones? Fantasy Twitter picks RoJo:

Ronald Jones: 65%

Leonard Fournette: 27%

Keyshawn Vaughn: 8%

Honorable Mentions: 

Keyshawn Vaughn - Hold

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Evans - Buy

Mike Evans came off of a stellar 2020 year grabbing the WR11 spot in PPR. Evans to me has always been an underrated elite WR. He averages as the WR12 in the 7 years he has completed in the NFL, and has never had a season below 1000 receiving yards. 2020 brought on one of his best seasons to date with 13 TDs and 1006 yards on 70 receptions. Evans has remained healthy throughout his career showing durability and consistency. Look for Evans to continue at this elite level for a minimum of 4-5 more years, no matter the next QB throwing to him. Signed up through 2023 with the Bucs, he remains in the pass heavy Arians offense. Trade that first round rookie pick and avoid the lottery pick by buying Mike Evans in Dynasty leagues. His current trade value is much lower than the value he brings to your team.

Chris Godwin - Sell

Chris Godwin finished as the WR31 PPR in 2020, but also dealt with injury early on in the season. Injury risk aside, he was consistent when he was on the field, posting an average of 15.6 fantasy points per game from Week 9 on. The Godwin vs Evans debate is an intriguing conversation: 68% of Twitter voters would rather have Chris Godwin on their dynasty teams, as Godwin is the younger player. Believe it or not, Godwin is only 2 years younger than Evans (25 vs 27), so there isn’t much of an age gap as people may think.Godwin is also a UFA this season. Chris has publicly addressed that he is willing to play on the franchise tag to stay in Tampa Bay, but this means only one guaranteed season on one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL. Pending on the organization's decision, Godwin could end up in a much less favorable situation than he’s in now. The Bucs clearly aren’t ready to blow the bag on a big time contract. The talent is there for Chris, but it’s not certain that his situation is going to get any better than staying in Tampa Bay. Sell Godwin at his peak value now - especially if you can acquire Evans plus some rookie draft picks.

Who would you rather own? Chris Godwin or Mike Evans? Fantasy Twitter picks Godwin:

Chris Godwin: 68%

Mike Evans: 31%

Antonio Brown: 1%

Honorable Mentions: 

Antonio Brown - Hold

Scott Miller - Buy 

Tyler Johnson - Buy

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski - Hold/Buy

Gronk was a pleasant surprise in the 2020 season. No one knew what to expect with Gronk returning to the NFL with the greatest QB of all time, but it went just about as well as it could. The 31 year old was TE10 on the year posting 623 yards and 7 TDs. Gronk is still thinking about his future in the NFL, but if he decides to return in 2021, it will be for the Buccaneers. If he’s on your Dynasty team, he’s worth a stash next year as a Red Zone threat, especially in 2 TE leagues. With the tight end market so scarce, Rob may even be worth sending out an offer, as you can get him for dirt cheap. Hold if you have him, and possibly send a late 3rd/early 4th round rookie pick to buy if you’re feeling a little adventurous. 

OJ Howard - Buy

 

In the event that Gronk doesn’t return, OJ Howard may be worth taking a look at in Dynasty leagues. At only 26 years old, Howard hits free agency with a comeback on his mind. Injured for the majority of 2020, OJ only played 4 games. However, he showed flashes of his true self early on in the season, scoring 2 touchdowns and averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game. Most managers forget about him in Dynasty, so throw out a cheap offer for him in deeper TE leagues and see what comes back. A fresh start for OJ Howard could mean big value to come if he lands a starting role, making him a buy.

Who would you rather own? Rob Gronkowski or OJ Howard? Fantasy Twitter picks Howard:

OJ Howard: 61%

Rob Gronkowski: 30%

Cameron Brate: 9%

Honorable Mentions: Cameron Brate - Hold

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang and comment your thoughts.

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

It’s In The Cards

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It’s In The Cards

By Matt Kelley

The Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all had a  common thread when it came to fantasy WR production last season. Do you know what it was?  They all sustained two top 24 fantasy wide receivers. Five teams accomplished this in 2018 as well. So what leads to the ability for these teams to produce multiple top-end fantasy wide receivers, and what new team has the chance to provide this fantasy value this season? Let's take a look...

Pass Volume:

Of the four teams above, three of them were in the top-5 of pass attempts in the NFL last season. The lone team not in there was Detroit who finished with the 16th most pass attempts per game (35.7); 4 attempts less per game than Tampa Bay (39.4). Matthew Stafford only started eight games for the Lions before falling victim to a back injury. Through eight games, Stafford averaged about 36.4 pass attempts per game. While Stafford wasn’t throwing at a considerably higher pace, it’s likely the Lions would have thrown more in general if not for having to turn to David Blough and Jeff Driskel.  

Targets: 

The breakdown of targets for the players inside the top-24 WRs on these teams is as follows:

Atlanta Falcons: 

Calvin Ridley: 93 targets, 17.7% target share, 63 receptions

Julio Jones: 157 targets, 25.7% target share,99 receptions

Detroit Lions: 

Kenny Golladay: 116 targets, 21.1% target share, 65 receptions

Marvin Jones: 91 targets, 20.2% target share, 62 receptions

Los Angeles Rams: 

Cooper Kupp: 135 targets, 21.8% target share, 94 receptions

Robert Woods: 139 targets, 23.4% target share, 90 receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

Chris Godwin: 121 targets, 22.2% target share, 86 receptions

Mike Evans: 118 targets, 23.8% target share, 67 receptions

The team most unlikely to repeat in this group based on targets is Detroit. While both players are seeing a great target %, the low receptions mean they’ll need to make up for reception totals in half and full PPR settings in an effort to repeat. Additionally, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyreek Hill all finished outside of the top-24 last season, largely due to injury. There’s a strong chance those WRs find their way back inside the top-24, provided they have healthy seasons. Second year WRs D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin are all also threats to bolster their way into the conversation. 

Defense:

The more points a defense allows, the more an offense has to go back onto the field. Pretty simple. So for fantasy purposes, give us some bad defenses, some negative game scripts, and let those passes fly. All four teams mentioned above were in the bottom half of the league in points given up. While Tampa’s defense could improve as it’s unlikely Tom Brady throws for 30 interceptions...a la Jameis Winston, the efficiency should skyrocket and there will be enough NFC South shootouts to keep both Evans and Godwin well fed. 

What team can find their way into this list for 2020?

Arizona Cardinals: 

                   

The Arizona Cardinals acquired Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Hopkins has seen 150 targets in each of the last five seasons. Yes, this is a different offense, however Arizona let up the 28th most points in the league, and they’ll need to throw to get back into games. While the Cardinals only threw the 18th most pass attempts in the league last season, 2nd year QB Kyler Murray should take a step forward in terms of taking less sacks, being more efficient, and seeing offensive drives continue, thus pass attempts will go up. 3rd year WR Christian Kirk fits the bill to join Hopkins as a top-24 WR. Kirk saw 108 targets for a 24.5% target share last season. With the addition of Hopkins, he’ll no longer need to operate as the team's WR1. While he may lose part of that target share % with Hopkins being a target hog, there will be plenty of volume and more quality targets for Kirk as Hopkins will likely draw top coverage. Kirk had 11 redzone receptions last season, 9th most in the NFL. He’s already a trusted target for Murray in the most important part of the field and is a great candidate to see a positive bump in touchdowns. Kirk is a steal right now in drafts going as WR38 and pick 95 overall in PPR leagues. Look for the Cardinals duo to join the ranks of the best fantasy WR tandems in the league.

NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome to 2020 NFL team breakdown!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically...each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this, but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from your's truly. Throughout the team breakdowns, be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with the coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better...always!

Let’s reveal where the offensive cores fit, shall we?

BIG BUY:
Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BUY:

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos

NEUTRAL:

Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings

FADE:

Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and The Washington Football Team.

We begin our team breakdown with the fantasy friendly NFC South…

Carolina Panthers

Overall this offense is an absolute BUY! The offense begins and ends with Christian McCaffrey, but there is a lot to like in the offensive skill position core.

QB ‪Teddy Bridgewater: high upside QB2, $1 in 14 team auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week. Teddy’s NFL journey has been a wild ride, he now finds himself on a Carolina Panthers team with a new head coach in defensive-minded Matt Rhule and a new offensive coordinator with aggressive and fast-pace play calling Joe Brady; formerly the OC of the 2019 National Champion LSU Tigers. Whoa baby!

‪RB Christian McCaffrey: THE RB1, 1.01, 35% auction budget. He is a cheat code and will remain at top of the draft board until proven otherwise.

WR DJ Moore: a PPR and YAC stud, WR1, 15-17% auction budget, Round 3 target, will be absolutely smashing his name if he falls to Round 4

‪WR Curtis Samuel: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB) upside depth stash, PPR league target, 1-2% auction budget, round 13

WR Robby Anderson: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB), unpredictable big play ability makes him most appealing in Best Ball leagues, 1-2% auction budget, round 14

TE Ian Thomas: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 in deep auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week

Atlanta Falcons

This year the Falcons continue to be a consistent and fantasy friendly offense. They are in my upper echelon of offenses to target for all draft types. The Falcons offensive core fits into my BIG BUY category!

QB Matt Ryan: “Ladder Pick” QB1 has the best WR duo in the league and a new RB and TE target. I expect a lot of high scoring contests out of this team with Matt Ryan being the ultimate beneficiary. 4-6% of auction budget, round 6-7 target, he is QB worth reaching for even when conventional wisdom says to wait on QB.

RB Todd Gurley: High risk/high reward - RB2 is preferable, but would be happy with him as my RB1 if I were to go robust at WR or grab an elite TE in round 2. With a crowded backfield behind him, I would hold any of backups in Brian Hill or Ito Smith as priority FA adds. If Gurley is drafted as your RB1, I would make RB a big priority for rounds 5-9. 14-18% auction budget. Round 4 would be desirable.

WR Julio Jones:  WR1, 20-22% auction budget, round 2. He is a GO is all league formats, although I would be a bit more aggressive in best ball formats. Incredibly solid option, also highly productive and I hope that production shows up a bit more in the TD column.

WR Calvin Ridley: “Ladder Pick” - WR2 with WR1 upside. The perfect compliment to Julio Jones has been a producer each year and now he enters his 3rd season destined to breakout. Give me ALL of the Calvin Ridley shares!! 13-14% auction budget, round 4. You know the GIF of Winnie the Pooh sitting at the table with the pot of honey in front of him, his napkin tied around his neck, utensils in hand, eyes closed, smiling and dancing back and forth. Well, I’m Winnie the Pooh and Calvin Ridley is the honey.

TE Hayden Hurst: This TE1 is in a tier with Evan Engram, he will finally get his chance to shine in this juggernaut offense.

New Orleans Saints

The Sean Payton-Drew Brees brain-trust continues to be an entertaining and fantasy friendly offense. The Saints offensive core will remain a BUY!

QB Drew Brees:  QB1, 4% of auction budget, round 7-8 target, consistently productive surrounded by some of the game best weapons!

RB Alvin Kamara:  RB1, 28-30% of auction budget, round 1, PPR dream, just flat out good at the game

RB Latavius Murray:  RB3, this zero-RB draft strategy target serves as a great compliment to Alvin Kamara, if Kamara misses time Murray enters low RB1/high-RB2 territory. 5-7% of auction budget, round 9-10 target

WR Michael Thomas: The WR1, this PPR machine broke the NFL catches record last season with 144 catches. This is an average of 9 per game. 9 catches PER GAME!! I’m honestly happy if a WR gets around 9 *targets* a game. I see no sign of him slowing down. 28-30% auction budget, round 1

WR Emmanuel Sanders: One of my favorite players is now playing along side of Michael Thomas with Drew Brees throwing to him...you love to see it! WR3, 7-8% auction budget, round 9-10

TE Jared Cook: Low end TE1, 2-3% auction budget, round 9, I think any smart fantasy player would want pieces of the New Orleans offense - he may not seem like a “sexy” pick but what I think is “sexy” is opportunity in an elite offense. Also, do yourself a favor and remind yourself of what he did in the second half of the season last year.

TE Adam Trautman: A dynasty favorite, this extremely athletic rookie will be learning from a big play veteran in Jared Cook and will have the pleasure of playing Drew Brees for what he has left and possibly Jameis Winston in the future. BUY!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn...BIG BUY!!

QB Tom Brady: QB1, 3-4% auction budget, round 10. Brady enters into a smorgasbord of offensive weapons that I argue boasts the 2nd best WR and TE groups in the league and with a decent stable of RBs this team will feast. Brady will be the prime beneficiary of this offense!

RBs Ronald Jones: (RB3, 7-8% auction budget, round 7 if robust WR with elite TE strategy) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB4, 4-5% auction budget, round 10) are the only draftable RBs for 12 team drafts. LeSean McCoy and Dare Ogunbowale should be priority FA if Jones or Vaughn miss time. I want players in this offense so keep a close eye.

WRs Chris Godwin (WR1, 16-18% auction budget, round 2) and Mike Evans (WR1, 14-15% auction budget, round 3) are the most important pieces of this offense, they will help open up the running game as well as help the TE create mismatches. I love them both in all formats, I’d be willing to be aggressive to draft Mike Evans in best ball formats.

TEs Rob Gronkowski (low end TE1, 1-2% auction budget, round 9), OJ Howard (TE2 with upside to be TE1 group if Gronk were to miss time, $1 deep auction league stash, priority FA) and Cameron Brate (very late round target for best ball formats, priority FA in all other formats if Gronk/Howard were to miss time or as a bye week replacement).

I will generally be fading Gronk this year. I think the best and smart play is to target him late or for cheap in an auction draft with the hopes that he produces well enough early on to be used as a sell high candidate. I hope I am wrong on that because he is an awesome and fun player who I fear will be mainly touchdown dependent.

 

 

 

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