Todd Gurley

NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome to 2020 NFL team breakdown!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically...each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this, but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from your's truly. Throughout the team breakdowns, be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with the coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better...always!

Let’s reveal where the offensive cores fit, shall we?

BIG BUY:
Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BUY:

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos

NEUTRAL:

Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings

FADE:

Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and The Washington Football Team.

We begin our team breakdown with the fantasy friendly NFC South…

Carolina Panthers

Overall this offense is an absolute BUY! The offense begins and ends with Christian McCaffrey, but there is a lot to like in the offensive skill position core.

QB ‪Teddy Bridgewater: high upside QB2, $1 in 14 team auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week. Teddy’s NFL journey has been a wild ride, he now finds himself on a Carolina Panthers team with a new head coach in defensive-minded Matt Rhule and a new offensive coordinator with aggressive and fast-pace play calling Joe Brady; formerly the OC of the 2019 National Champion LSU Tigers. Whoa baby!

‪RB Christian McCaffrey: THE RB1, 1.01, 35% auction budget. He is a cheat code and will remain at top of the draft board until proven otherwise.

WR DJ Moore: a PPR and YAC stud, WR1, 15-17% auction budget, Round 3 target, will be absolutely smashing his name if he falls to Round 4

‪WR Curtis Samuel: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB) upside depth stash, PPR league target, 1-2% auction budget, round 13

WR Robby Anderson: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB), unpredictable big play ability makes him most appealing in Best Ball leagues, 1-2% auction budget, round 14

TE Ian Thomas: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 in deep auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week

Atlanta Falcons

This year the Falcons continue to be a consistent and fantasy friendly offense. They are in my upper echelon of offenses to target for all draft types. The Falcons offensive core fits into my BIG BUY category!

QB Matt Ryan: “Ladder Pick” QB1 has the best WR duo in the league and a new RB and TE target. I expect a lot of high scoring contests out of this team with Matt Ryan being the ultimate beneficiary. 4-6% of auction budget, round 6-7 target, he is QB worth reaching for even when conventional wisdom says to wait on QB.

RB Todd Gurley: High risk/high reward - RB2 is preferable, but would be happy with him as my RB1 if I were to go robust at WR or grab an elite TE in round 2. With a crowded backfield behind him, I would hold any of backups in Brian Hill or Ito Smith as priority FA adds. If Gurley is drafted as your RB1, I would make RB a big priority for rounds 5-9. 14-18% auction budget. Round 4 would be desirable.

WR Julio Jones:  WR1, 20-22% auction budget, round 2. He is a GO is all league formats, although I would be a bit more aggressive in best ball formats. Incredibly solid option, also highly productive and I hope that production shows up a bit more in the TD column.

WR Calvin Ridley: “Ladder Pick” - WR2 with WR1 upside. The perfect compliment to Julio Jones has been a producer each year and now he enters his 3rd season destined to breakout. Give me ALL of the Calvin Ridley shares!! 13-14% auction budget, round 4. You know the GIF of Winnie the Pooh sitting at the table with the pot of honey in front of him, his napkin tied around his neck, utensils in hand, eyes closed, smiling and dancing back and forth. Well, I’m Winnie the Pooh and Calvin Ridley is the honey.

TE Hayden Hurst: This TE1 is in a tier with Evan Engram, he will finally get his chance to shine in this juggernaut offense.

New Orleans Saints

The Sean Payton-Drew Brees brain-trust continues to be an entertaining and fantasy friendly offense. The Saints offensive core will remain a BUY!

QB Drew Brees:  QB1, 4% of auction budget, round 7-8 target, consistently productive surrounded by some of the game best weapons!

RB Alvin Kamara:  RB1, 28-30% of auction budget, round 1, PPR dream, just flat out good at the game

RB Latavius Murray:  RB3, this zero-RB draft strategy target serves as a great compliment to Alvin Kamara, if Kamara misses time Murray enters low RB1/high-RB2 territory. 5-7% of auction budget, round 9-10 target

WR Michael Thomas: The WR1, this PPR machine broke the NFL catches record last season with 144 catches. This is an average of 9 per game. 9 catches PER GAME!! I’m honestly happy if a WR gets around 9 *targets* a game. I see no sign of him slowing down. 28-30% auction budget, round 1

WR Emmanuel Sanders: One of my favorite players is now playing along side of Michael Thomas with Drew Brees throwing to him...you love to see it! WR3, 7-8% auction budget, round 9-10

TE Jared Cook: Low end TE1, 2-3% auction budget, round 9, I think any smart fantasy player would want pieces of the New Orleans offense - he may not seem like a “sexy” pick but what I think is “sexy” is opportunity in an elite offense. Also, do yourself a favor and remind yourself of what he did in the second half of the season last year.

TE Adam Trautman: A dynasty favorite, this extremely athletic rookie will be learning from a big play veteran in Jared Cook and will have the pleasure of playing Drew Brees for what he has left and possibly Jameis Winston in the future. BUY!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn...BIG BUY!!

QB Tom Brady: QB1, 3-4% auction budget, round 10. Brady enters into a smorgasbord of offensive weapons that I argue boasts the 2nd best WR and TE groups in the league and with a decent stable of RBs this team will feast. Brady will be the prime beneficiary of this offense!

RBs Ronald Jones: (RB3, 7-8% auction budget, round 7 if robust WR with elite TE strategy) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB4, 4-5% auction budget, round 10) are the only draftable RBs for 12 team drafts. LeSean McCoy and Dare Ogunbowale should be priority FA if Jones or Vaughn miss time. I want players in this offense so keep a close eye.

WRs Chris Godwin (WR1, 16-18% auction budget, round 2) and Mike Evans (WR1, 14-15% auction budget, round 3) are the most important pieces of this offense, they will help open up the running game as well as help the TE create mismatches. I love them both in all formats, I’d be willing to be aggressive to draft Mike Evans in best ball formats.

TEs Rob Gronkowski (low end TE1, 1-2% auction budget, round 9), OJ Howard (TE2 with upside to be TE1 group if Gronk were to miss time, $1 deep auction league stash, priority FA) and Cameron Brate (very late round target for best ball formats, priority FA in all other formats if Gronk/Howard were to miss time or as a bye week replacement).

I will generally be fading Gronk this year. I think the best and smart play is to target him late or for cheap in an auction draft with the hopes that he produces well enough early on to be used as a sell high candidate. I hope I am wrong on that because he is an awesome and fun player who I fear will be mainly touchdown dependent.

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder

Mid/Late Round Players that will Finish Top-12

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Players Drafted Outside the Top-12 that will Finish Inside the Top-12

by Bob Miller

 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Before Stafford had to be sidelined for the last eight games in 2019 due to a back injury, he was on fire. He threw for almost 2,500 yards, 19 TDs and only five interceptions. He was on pace to have a career-year, similar to 2011 when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. He is currently being taken outside the top-12 and should finish as a QB1 if healthy, easily making him a fantastic value pick, especially in Superflex leagues.

 

Ryan Tannehill: All Tannehill did last year after taking over in Week 7 was rack up fantasy points. In fact, from Week 7 on, the only QB to outscore Tannehill was Lamar Jackson. So why is he being drafted so low this year? Sure, he probably won’t repeat the same performance as last year, but he should put together another fantastic season with his rushing ability and weapons around him. With an ADP of 130 (#20 QB), he should drastically outperform his current price. At only 31 years old, he could be a nice bargain in dynasty leagues.

 

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben should be considered a back-end QB1 if he's healthy and firing on all cylinders. He is fully expected to be 100% and ready to roll for Week 1 and he's my favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. JuJu Smith-Schuster should also experience a nice rebound season after a 2019 to forget without Roethlisberger slinging him the rock. Roethlisberger, with all his weapons around him, should be a fantastic pickup late in your draft that can payoff big time.

 

Running Back

Kenyan Drake: Drake is in a high-octane offense that’s trending upwards and should put up insane numbers this season. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com states that Drake could get over 350 touches. Wow! There are a lot of great options in the top 10 RBs right now, but you can wait. Drake has legit potential to explode this season and a top-6 finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Cam Akers: There is rumor that the Rams backfield could be a RBBC, but LA wouldn’t have spent a 2nd round pick on Akers if they believed in Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown. We all know what a running back is capable of in this offense after watching Todd Gurley for the last few seasons. Even though the Rams have lost some guys on the O-Line, Akers is primed to be the early down back to start the season and could take over full time very quickly. It will be hard to keep him off the field, making him a double digit touchdown threat. He can definitely finish as a top-12 back.

 

James Conner:  There is no doubt that Conner is a fantasy stud...when he’s on the field. That’s the question. Can he stay healthy? Regardless, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Conner has proven that he can shine behind them. He is a contract year player and extremely motivated to stay in Pittsburgh. If Conner can stay healthy, he will drastically outperform where he's being drafted right now. Take full advantage, as the risk is worth the reward.

 

Todd Gurley: Just like in 2017, Todd Gurley can be a league winner again. Gurley is going to be given all the touches he can handle in this Falcons offense, if he can stay healthy. If he shows that he can handle a significant workload, he'll easily outperform his ADP in 2020. Atlanta has the 3rd easiest schedule this season, which makes Gurley hands down one of my favorite values.

 

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp: Cooper Kupp may end up being one of the biggest steals in your draft this year. He was incredibly productive through the first half of 2019. In fact, from Weeks 1-8, Kupp was the WR2 in all of fantasy football. He finished as the #6 WR in PPR with 94 rec, 1,162 yds, 10 TDs on 134 targets. With Brandin Cooks gone, Kupp could see over 150+ targets this year. As Jared Goff’s security blanket, especially in the Red Zone, it’s very possible that Kupp could finish as a top 3 WR in PPR Leagues this year. With a current ADP of WR15 (35th overall), Kupp is a steal at this price.

 

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: I know there’s a ton of hype around Hollywood this year, but it’s for good reason. He is the current #1 Wide Receiver in Baltimore’s offense. He showed what he was capable as a rookie with a bad foot hauling in 584 yds with 7 touchdowns on 46 receptions. Now imagine what he will do with a year’s experience under his belt, a healed and healthy foot, and a whole offseason working out with Lamar Jackson. He is primed to blow up this season. I have him projected to have 74 rec, 1,089 yds, and 9 TDs. That’s 239 PPR points, which would have been top 7 last season. Currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX, he could be a league winner this year.

 

Jarvis Landry: “Old Reliable” is what I refer to Landry as. Wait.. old? Nope. He’s only 27 years old. The same age as Michael Thomas and younger than DeAndre Hopkins, meaning Jarvis Landry has plenty of good years ahead of him. He may be coming off an injury, but he has never missed a game in his NFL career...Never. He averages 94 catches a year, so why is he being drafted outside the top 30 WRs? I have no idea, but I absolutely love it. He is a wonderful target in the mid-rounds, which gives you an opportunity to stock up on RB or QB (if you’re in a Superflex league). He is as close to a sure thing to have 80+ receptions this year as you can get. Like Hollywood Brown, Landry is currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX. He is a high end WR2 with WR1 upside in a Browns offense that should be improved.

 

Tight End

Blake Jarwin: Jarwin is finally free! Free from playing behind Jason Witten. He's in a great situation this season in a very dynamic and powerful offense. He’s very athletic and can stretch the field extremely well for a TE, which will result in some good chunk plays. He's going to see plenty of work and should be a back-end TE1 this season. Currently being drafted outside the top 20 TEs, Jarwin can pay off big time as a late round pick.

 

 

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is no sleeper by any means, and he is getting more hype as the season gets closer. This is a player with an ADP of the #21 TE a month ago. He has now creeped up into the Top 15. That’s still not bad, because he can still be the biggest surprise at TE this year. Hurst has a very good chance and path to finishing as a Top 5 option at the end of this season. Hurst is a tremendously talented tight end who is finally going to be given a full-time opportunity in Atlanta's dynamic offense. He will be a homerun pick in the later rounds of your draft. If you are in a dynasty league, go trade for him. You may have to pay more than you’d want, but it could still be a great bargain.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @DynastyProBob

The 5 Best Fantasy Destinations for Raheem Mostert After Trade Request

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The 5 Best Fantasy Destinations for Raheem Mostert After Trade Request

By Tommy Harvey

Wednesday afternoon, San Francisco 49ers RB Raheem Mostert requested a trade after contract negotiations were “unproductive.”  Mostert became the 49ers lead back last season after Matt Breida went down with an injury in week 10 against the Seahawks.  He led the team with 772 yards and 8 TDs on the way to a Super Bowl LIV loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  

Mostert was somewhat of a late bloomer.  As a rookie in 2015, he was seen on four rosters (Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, and Browns).  In 2016, he was on three more (Jets, Bears, and 49ers).  Now, the 28 year old veteren is seemingly on his way out of San Fran and there are a few options for him and the 49ers...but, where is he a more valuable fantasy asset? 

 

San Francisco 49ers

If it ain’t broke, why fix it?  Raheem Mostert and the 49ers have proven to be compatible while on the football field.  The last eight games of the 2019 season...including the playoffs...Mostert ran for 715 yards and 11 TDs on 117 carries (6.11 ypc).  That included a playoff outburst of 29 carries, 220 yards, and 4 TDs in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay.

Obviously, a return to San Francisco would mean a new contract would need to be in place to satisfy Mostert.  Maybe the publicness of his request could be a ploy to force the 49ers to step up and offer him what he deems as fair.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady will be 43 years old at the start of the season, and isn’t getting any younger.  His final season with the New England Patriots displayed his need for run support.  Enter Raheem Mostert.  Mostert would instantly be the best RB option for the Bucs as they look to make a run in the NFC South.  

TB12 has a plethora of options already in Tampa Bay.  WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and newly drafted Tyler Johnson are enough to make any defense extremely uncomfortable.  Then add in the three headed TE monster of Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, and Cameron Brate.  Raheem Mostert would bring an intriguing presence to an already potentially dangerous offense.

New York Jets

The J-E-T-S Jets are an interesting pairing.  They signed Le’Veon Bell last season and are trying to become relevant in the AFC East, that has recently lost the aforementioned Tom Brady.  The preseason favorite to win the division are the Buffalo Bills, but a big offensive season by New York could put them in the thick of it.  Acquiring Raheem Mostert could go a long way in that pursuit.  

Also, it could make it easier for the Jets to eventually part with Bell, who is owed $13.5 million in 2021 if carried on the roster.  New York has an out after the 2020 season, with only having to deal with a $4 million cap hit.  Could a reunion with Raheem Mostert be in the cards?

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are only a few years removed from an appearance in the Super Bowl.  Their potent offense could make them a contender sooner rather than later.  Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have been an elite QB/WR combo over their careers together.  With WR Calvin Ridley and newly acquired TE Hayden Hurst (former 1st round pick), Atlanta has the weapons in the passing game.  Pairing Todd Gurley, who is only on a 1-year deal, with Raheem Mostert could be lethal.

Todd Gurley has documented knee issues, so a safety valve like Raheem Mostert would be significant.  The Falcons have shown the ability to run two RBs with efficiency.  Remember Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (Mostert’s teammate in SF)?

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are going to need to rely on their running game this season...poor offensive line and all.  LA is going into the season with veteran QBs Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert, but neither should inspire much confidence, at least early on in the season.

RB Austin Ekeler proved to be a fantasy stud last season, but many people doubt his ability to hold up as a bell cow back.  The Chargers already have Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley, but Raheem Mostert would be an upgrade.  Mostert would provide Los Angeles with a viable option at RB to pair with Ekeler.

You can follow me on Twitter @dynastyprostom

Todd Gurley: 2020 and Beyond

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Todd Gurley: 2020 and Beyond

by Matt Kelley

Death, taxes, and Todd Gurley is the league's best running back. This was pretty much everyone’s sentiment in 2017 and 2018...at least right until the Rams appearance in the Super Bowl. The Rams were concerned enough about Gurley’s health in the latter
portion of the regular 2018 season that they signed C.J. Anderson off the couch, and carried him into the playoffs (Anderson won some folks fantasy titles in this stretch).

Gurley stated that he was ‘healthy’ in his post game interview after only accounting for 10 carries and 35 yards in the biggest game of his career. Leading into the 2019 season, Gurley’s trainer said there was ‘an arthritic component’ to Gurley’s knee. The fantasy football community stood still, eyes wide, and by-in-large pressed the panic button. Oh dear. Those are certainly words you don’t want to hear for a guy whoseproduction depends on said knee. From here, let’s go into a deeper dive of just where we are with TGII and what that means for your fantasy squad.

Gurley’s 2019 season: Woof. Not the same Todd Gurley fantasy managers had depended on in years past. His average draft position was all over the place, depending on what you believed about his health and how the Rams conveyed he would be utilized in games. Since most fantasy leagues play their championship game in week 16, we’ll examine his season in that time frame.

Gurley only missed one game...that’s not bad. Gurley didn’t rush for 100 yards in a single game. Uh oh. That’s a feat he accomplished six times in both 2017 and 2018, respectively. Gurley did go over 90 yards rushing three times, but he also rushed for under 50 yards seven times. Gurley had double digit rushing attempts in five of those seven games that he was under the 50 yards rushing mark. So, what happened? Well, a number of things. First, the Rams offensive line was dreadful. Pro Football Focus ranked the Rams line at 31 of 32 teams, only better than the Miami Dolphins. While that doesn’t account for everything, it did force the Rams to change their game plan and often play from behind.

In theory, Gurley should have been very involved in passing game work. Through 16 weeks (14 appearances) Gurley saw 47 targets and 29 catches. Gurley collected 59 and 64 catches in the two seasons prior, respectively. Gurley still managed to find the endzone on 14 occasions, and that was largely what salvaged his games from a fantasy perspective. As mentioned, touchdowns are often the most difficult projection from year to year, though Gurley does seem to have a nose for the endzone.

The Knee: Let me express...I am the furthest possible thing from being a doctor. So here is the analysis from Dr. David Chao, who was the Chargers team doctor for 17 years.

Per Dr. Chao: “Gurley passed the team doctor exam but this does not mean he is over his chronic knee issue. The former Rams workhorse still has an arthritic left knee that will limit him going forward. Passing the physical does not mean the knee is normal, just that the Falcons accept the condition as is. Our thoughts on Gurley’s usage haven’t changed since our 2019 preseason report in which we postulated that Gurley is no longer a volume running back” (profootballdoc.com).

Before we continue, let me express that Dr. Chao is a must follow on the Twitter machine - @ProFootballDoc. If you’re ever wondering what to do in regards to a player’s injury, Dr. Chao’s injury analysis is second to none in my (very non-doctoral) opinion. So with that said, the health of Gurley’s knee is something you’ll have to bake into your risk tolerance when you draft him this season. The Rams usage of Gurley from a week to week perspective does seem to lend credence to the thought that Gurley’s knee may allow for more activity some weeks than others.

The Cut: The Rams cut ties with Gurley this offseason, despite giving him the contract that made him the league’s highest paid running back in 2018. The Rams ate $20 million in dead cap space to move on from him. That’s pretty staggering. If you’re looking for a tie breaker scenario in redraft, or certainly in dynasty formats as Gurely approaches his age 26 season, you should consider the investment in his situation. A team willing to move on from a player at that price says two things: First, Gurley wasn’t going to take a pay cut (why would he?). And second, the Rams didn’t believe his production would ever reflect their investment again.

Gurley’s New Team:  Gurley signed a one year, $5 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons. Anytime a player signs a one year deal, it’s usually because they’re either nearing the end of their career or they’re in a ‘prove it’ type of scenario. For Gurley, it’s assumed to be the latter given his knee and production from 2019. Pro Football Focus graded the Falcons’ offensive line at 24 out of 32 teams last season. Better than the Rams but certainly not without issues. As of this writing, Ito Smith and Brian Hill are the only backs in Atlanta that really pose any challenge to Gurley’s role as the RB1 in this backfield. Neither Smith nor Hill inspired much confidence last season. The Falcons only rushed for 85.1 yards a game last season - 30th in the NFL. The defense did improve over the second half of the season, however they gave up nearly 25 points per game. The Falcons played from behind a lot. So Gurley is now on a team that plays from behind often and has a bad offensive line... Sound familiar?

What To Do: We’ve all seen the Gurley hype video on Twitter, in which he appears to be leg pressing a million pounds. For a second, it does make you think the knee is okay, but then you remember the aforementioned injury and investment in his talents (both from the Rams and Falcons). In PPR leagues, Gurely is currently going as RB15. Sounds good. His ADP, however, is 27th overall, which is early third round in 12 team leagues. In redraft, you only need him for this season, so really it’s dependent on your risk tolerance. But if you do this, you’re also passing on guys like Leonard Fournette, Allen Robinson, and D.J. Moore. Obviously, it depends on your team build, but in a vacuum, I’d take all three of those players before Gurely.

In regards to dynasty format, I’d still draft Gurley but he’d need to go considerably later. I’m talking about the fifth round in single QB leagues. That’s just where my comfort level meets my personal risk tolerance. He’ll most likely land on a new team next season, and it’s hard to project what that will mean for his outlook until we know exactly where. If you’re established in a dynasty league and you’re in ‘win now’ mode, you may be able to trade for Gurley as that piece to get you to the Promised Land.

The hype for his 2019 season is growing and is higher than what it was prior to his signing with Atlanta. With no true competition in the backfield, the Falcons could just give Gurley all he can handle as they have no commitment to him beyond the 2020 season. The question being, what exactly can Gurley handle? My gut says, with all the information we have available, you can probably account for a missed game or two. There could be some weeks of frustration in Gurley’s usage within a game plan. Gurley was just north of 250 total touches last season, which is still a great number. I just wouldn’t expect him to return to near the 300 touch realm of seasons past. In an effort to see his production match or exceed his ADP, Gurley’s season depends on him seeing and uptick in receiving volume and maintaining his touchdown totals. I don’t like to bet against guys that have shown other worldly talents, but Gurley is in a new offense, and the health of his knee isn’t going to progress in a positive direction. If his body holds up, he has the opportunity to ‘prove it’ for 2020. Just know that if his touchdown numbers fall and his production remains at the level it was last season, Gurley could disappoint for fantasy.

You can follow me on Twitter @ThatMattKelley

ADP Early Values: NFC South

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ADP Early Values- NFC South

by Matt Kelley

 

ADP. Average. Draft. Position. There’s almost nothing you’ll hear more about in terms of a
fantasy football draft between now and the kickoff of the NFL season. ADP can fluctuate
depending on your league type, scoring and league size. For the sake of this article, we’re going
to assume that the league is a 12 team, PPR, single QB, and a total of 16 roster spots (all ADP
in this article is based on Bestball 10’s 12 player leagues). Pretty standard league, a format
you’ll most likely play in if you’re reading this

.
As always, the goal in a draft is to take someone at an Average Draft Position that is most
beneficial. Let’s say you want Drew Brees as your QB. Nothing wrong with that, but you don’t
need to take him with your first pick. In fact, you probably don’t need to take him with your first
eight picks. If you wait eight picks and miss out on him, good news for you, someone has let
value at another position fall and you’ll still get a good QB. ADP should be used as a guide
throughout your draft to understand where players are typically going, not as a strict source to
say you need to take this player. Depending on what position you draft from you may be able to
wait on a certain player, you may need to reach to get your guy and both of those are okay.
Know your leaguemates if you can. Where they’re from, tendencies, and experience. All of this
can influence ADP.
Now that we’ve breezed by what ADP is, what it means, and how it’s used, let's look at some
fellas in the NFC South that should outperform their ADP.

Atlanta Falcons:

Russell Gage-- I know, how many fantasy relevant wide receivers can the Falcons have? Well,
I’m borderline saying three. We all know about Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley but if you didn’t
watch a lot of Falcons football last year, you may have missed out on Gage. Then again, if you
did, he may have won you a week here and there from the waiver wire. Gage is currently going
at pick 232-- 19th round-- i.e. free unless you’re in a really, really deep league. So while
technically you don’t need to draft Gage by ADP, he might be worth that late round flyer pick.
Mohammud Sanu was dealt to the Patriots and that role has been filled by Gage. From week
eight on, Gage saw at least four targets in every game. In games without Jones or Ridley, Gage
saw double digit targets in two games. In two other games with Jones and Ridley, Gage saw
nine targets. Gage totaled 70 targets from week seven forward. Austin Hooper vacates 97
targets (over 13 games) and I don’t think all of those are going right back to Hurst. If you haven’t
caught on by now, the Falcons throw the ball a lot. Normally you’d hear there’s too many
mouths to feed between Jones, Ridley, Hurst and Todd Gurley but, I think the volume is there
for Gage to have flex appeal on most any given week. He’ll be on the field in three wide receiver
sets so his snap share is capped but, should Julio or Ridley miss time, he’s an easy plug and
play. If you draft him, you can save your FAAB and not worry about fighting for him on the
waiver wire.

Carolina Panthers:

Christian McCaffrey-- ok just kidding. Actual Player: Ian Thomas. As mentioned in my Panthers
preview, Ian Thomas is now the TE in Carolina, no longer behind Greg Olsen. Ian Thomas is
currently going as the 18th TE off the board, pick 143 overall, top of the 12th round. He’s going
nearly 30 picks after Dallas Goedert who is the second TE on his own team. The top three TE in
fantasy seem to be pretty clear cut with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. There’s
some positions where I deviate from top players, TE isn’t one of them, these guys are to me, in
their own class. So if you miss out on these three guys, WAIT. There’s a ton of TE’s left after
those three and it's one of the most difficult positions to lockdown in fantasy, I know. Here’s the
thing though, Thomas walks into a role where the TE saw 82 targets last season in 14 games.
Nearly six targets a game. Carolina is in an entirely new regime with Matt Rhule and company
but, the offense should see an uptick in pace, which should mean more plays, which should
mean more opportunity. 80+ targets is well within the range of outcomes for Thomas. Thomas is
also going after guys like Hayden Hurst (whew, that hype train is starting to go off the rails),
Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, and T.J. Hockenson. Not to get too deep into the woods here
because we could be here all day but Thomas has a very real possibility to outperform all of
these players. Is there risk involved? Yea, we’re talking about a player in the 12th round. I think
Thomas will be worth your pick and worth the wait at the position and finish around TE 14, with
an outside shot to break into the top 12.

New Orleans Saints:

Emmanuel Sanders. I’m going to be real honest... I have buyers remorse from buying into a role
that has been unpredictable for fantasy managers over the years. Teddy Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith
(shudders), and Brandon Coleman. It’s been since 2016 since the WR2 on the Saints had
meaningful value and wasn’t just a shot in the dark (technically Michael Thomas was the two
that year with Brandin Cooks being the one, remember that?). So why is this year different?
Well, few things. The NFC South is absolutely loaded. Every one of those matchups has the
ability to turn into a shootout. Oh by the way, the Saints also face the Raiders, Lions, and the
Chiefs (good luck keeping up). Michael Thomas is largely, and rightfully so, considered the best
WR in the league. Attention will surely be devoted his way giving Sanders both the second best
defender on a team and often, in plus matchups. Emmanuel Sanders walked right into San
Francisco last season and got 97 targets on a team that threw the ball 476 times. The Saints
have been lower passing volume the last couple of years but the Saints should surpass the 500
attempt mark in what could be QB Drew Brees last season. If the Saints throw 530 times,
Emmanuel Sanders would need an 18% target share to see 95 targets. Both seem like fairly
reasonable numbers. Plus, Drew Brees is still hyper efficient. Manny Sanders has an ADP of
113, the middle of ninth round and the 47th WR off the board. While his upside is capped
because, well, Michael Thomas, Sanders can provide you with weekly flex value with occasional
WR2 upside. I’m going back to the well here, give me Manny Sanders!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady. It’s still weird that he isn’t a Patriot right? Gronk too. At this moment, you could say
both guys are a value but, let’s focus on Brady. Brady currently has an ADP of 122, the first pick
of round 10, and the 13th QB off the board. He’s teetering on QB1 territory here, so he’s a value
for now, we’ll have to see what this looks like in August. The Patriots have largely won off of
defense, short passes, featuring random running backs, and ‘Beli-checking’ everyone. At least
we think, right? Brady has actually thrown the ball at least 570 times the last three seasons. In
4pt per passing touchdown leagues, Brady hasn’t hit the 300 fantasy point mark since 2015.
He’s been a steady option, he just hasn’t necessarily provided league winning upside. Grant you
in 2016 he scored 258 points after his "Deflategate" suspension and he could have won folks a
league that year. This year though, Brady departs everything he’s ever known to a team that
has arguably the league's best wide receiver corps. He’s reunited with his buddy Rob
Gronkowski so there’s a familiar safety blanket for Brady assuming Gronk can stay on the field.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are absolute monsters and Brady’s best collective options in
years. Brady has quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last three seasons. As talked
about with the Saints, the Bucs are in this loaded NFC South and are going to have to put up a
lot of points. I expect Brady is currently being drafted at his floor with a ceiling of being in the top
8 fantasy quarterbacks. Think Jameis Winston numbers with a *few* less interceptions.

@ThatMattKelley