Tight Ends

2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 2 and Tight Ends

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2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 2 and Tight Ends

By Doug Harrelson

 

 

So after Part 1 focused on wide receivers that lined up primarily on the outside, for Part 2, we will be looking at players that attack the middle of the field. These are our slot receivers and our tight ends. This class got a nice boost with the rumors of Keenan Allen likely being a cap casualty for the Chargers. This free agent wide receiver class was underwhelming before that news but this alters things significantly. Not only adding a talent like Allen to the free agency pool but also opening up a nice landing spot with a young QB for any free agent or rookie wide receiver. 

 

Keenan Allen

Best Case: New York Giants

In my eyes, Keenan Allen instantly becomes the most coveted prize at wide receiver in the free agent market. A reliable and savvy veteran can instantly give any of these young quarterbacks a reliable target they can depend on during those difficult 3rd and 7 situations that you just gotta have in this league to be successful. Daniel Jones is a guy that could use something like that. Allen would instantly be the best receiver Jones has had to work with in his career up to this point. You give a quarterback with exceptional accuracy in the mid-range a receiver like Allen that is a master of those routes and it is a recipe for some quality offense. It may be tough to get any sort of discount on Allen given his track record of production but I think wherever he lands he will be able to keep that up.

 

Jakobi Meyers

Best Case: Chicago Bears

In the 2019 NFL Draft the Patriots selected N’Keal Harry in the 1st Round. So did many of us in our rookie drafts that year but we try to forget those things. That same season they signed an undrafted free agent by the name of Jakobi Meyers. Who would have thought in 2023 that Meyers would be one of the better prospects available in free agency this offseason and Harry would be just trying to make sure he has a job this coming season? All that being said, Meyers has been a reliable target since he entered the league and should get some attention this offseason. I think he could be an excellent addition to a lot of squads but I am gonna highlight the Bears here. Giving Justin Fields a pass catcher that can he can hit quickly could help out that offensive line quite a bit. I do expect some improvements to that line but being able to do more three-step drops and get the ball out will help a bunch as well. 

 

Parris Campbell

Best Case: Los Angeles Chargers

Another receiver from the 2019 rookie class that did not reach the same level as guys like DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Deebo Samuel. Parris Campbell has high expectations coming out of Ohio State but has constantly battled injuries and some amount of poor quarterback play. Campbell has shown some flashes as a PPR monster with an explosive upside. With a spot opening up on the west coast, this could be the best chance Campbell has to be a second contract breakout. His size and frame worry me as injuries may always be part of his game but there is some upside here and trading for him will likely cost you nothing. Love picking him up as an add-on to a much bigger trade or seeing if you can get him for a 3rd with rookie hype continuing to build. 

 

Dalton Schultz

Best Case: Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott has shown that he likes targeting Schultz and really any of the tight ends. He also gets the benefit of working on a field with a guy like CeeDee Lamb that attracts so much attention. After getting the franchise tag this past season, I am not sure how likely a deal is to get done. There are plenty of other teams that could happily use his service but I think the best case for him is to stay where he is and he is used. The only issue might be getting the dollars and cents to work out when the Cowboys have already seen flashes from the two young backups and have a need at wide receiver. Given all of that I might be trying to move off of Schultz before free agency or as soon as he lands somewhere. He could have his value take a big hit if he lands in an offense that doesn’t use him as much.

 

Evan Engram

Best Case: Jacksonville Jaguars

While I do not think a deal gets done for Schultz, I do think Engram remains in Jacksonville. He has come out and said he wants to come back. Engram elevated his play to a new level with Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. Both parties are likely to be motivated to get a deal done given the success of the one-year deal that he signed this past offseason. I actually think he is a hold or maybe even a buy. Engram was giving you a minor Kelce-like effect down the stretch last season with some monster games as well as a high floor. Having weeks where you can get 40-plus out of tight end is such a significant advantage in fantasy football. The problem is that nobody is looking to move off of their Evan Engram shares after years of frustration followed by this massive breakout. 

 

Mike Gesicki

Best Case: Cincinnati Bengals

A tight end in name only, Mike Gesicki is really just a big slot receiver. This one may be tough to make work with all the contracts coming up for the Bengals and the need to address the offensive line. If it were to happen though, the amount of space in the middle of the field that would open up with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (assuming he is not traded) working on the outside could be really scary. Plus a quarterback like Joe Burrow who makes great decisions with the football to put him in a position to succeed. Gesicki could be cheap unless the manager that has him currently has had him for a while. At this point, they may want his value to return to what it was before but I’m not sure if that will even happen with a good landing spot. The talent is there but he has to land somewhere where he can get some use.

2023 Superflex Rookie Mock Draft 1.0

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2023 Superflex Rookie Mock Draft 1.0

By Dynasty Pros Staff

 

Every fantasy football site/podcast/YouTube channel does a Rookie Mock Draft.  My advice when looking at all of the mocks… soak in the player info and then make a composite of all of the mocks you look at, then form your own plan based on how your team is already constructed.  Here at DynastyProsFootball, we had six of our writers do a four-round Rookie Mock Draft (SuperFlex, Full PPR) making two selections per round.  

 

 

1.01 RB Bijan Robinson, 6'0 215 lbs, Texas

This may be chalky, but it is for a reason.  Robinson is the best fantasy football prospect in this class. There is nothing I’m going to say here that you haven’t heard about Robinson, so I will answer the bigger question: what if I’m rebuilding and don’t want to take a running back yet? I would still take Robinson over the quarterbacks here even in a SuperFlex league, but more importantly, I would try to trade back. You can potentially get a massive haul for him right now. If you cannot make that happen I would just take Bijan. Hopefully, I can complete my rebuild in time for him to be of use to me or I can try to flip him in the season when he is starting to produce. 

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

1.02 QB Bryce Young, 6’0 194lbs, Alabama

Alabama has had success at quarterback lately and it continues with Young.  When it comes to the first quarterback off the board, there are two players who are battling.  And although I prefer CJ Stroud, it’s hard to ignore that Young has had more success when it mattered most.  Ultimately, you can’t go wrong with either pick, but for me, it comes down to Young’s Heisman, better rushing ability and doing more with less on his team.  Give me Young with the slightest of advantages over Stroud.

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

1.03 C. J. Stroud, QB, 6’3” 215lbs, Ohio State

Arguably the best pure passer in this class, Stroud seemingly came from nowhere, going straight from Justin Fields’ backup to two-time Heisman Trophy contender. He has prototype size, can make all the throws, and can put the ball in almost unimaginably precise spots for his receivers. He’s proven he can perform on the biggest stages with spectacular bowl performances against the elite defenses of Utah and Georgia. The only question left to answer is whether he can be elite without an elite supporting cast.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

1.04 RB Jahmyr Gibbs, 5’11 200lbs, Alabama

Gibbs has been compared to Alvin Kamara, and that is a very fair comp.  Kamara is a little thicker, but they have very similar playing styles and skill sets.  I would give Gibbs the edge when it comes to breakaway speed, so give me that at 1.04 in any rookie draft.

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

1.05 WR Quentin Johnston, 6'4 215 lbs, TCU

Wow.. I did not expect to get Johnston here, but I’m glad I did. The first 3 picks were chalk, and I really expected Quentin Johnston to go at 1.04. With that being said I was really debating on whether I’d go Jahmyr Gibbs or Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the 1.05 spot. I see Johnston as the best WR in this class, and he should be drafted as a team’s go-to WR1. He’s my overall 1.04 in Superflex Rookie Drafts. 

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

1.06 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 6'0 193 lbs, Ohio St

Smith-Njigba follows the Ohio St. wide receiver pipeline to the NFL behind Garret Willson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba isn’t just “twitchy-fast,” he has long, breakaway speed. And, with him learning behind Olave and Wilson, Jaxon is a solid route runner who knows how to find open spaces in a defense.  If he was 2 inches taller, he may have garnered top 5 buzz in the 2023 NFL draft.  Wherever he is drafted, he is an immediate contributor with his ability to take the top off of defenses and his ability to create space over the middle. Yes, there may be some injury concern with Smith-Njigba missing most of the 2022 season, but all indications are his hamstring is not a long-term issue. There may be other receivers with more “singular” attributes that make them more appealing (Quentin Johnson? Or Jordan Addison?), but for the total package, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the #1 receiver on my rookie board and I’m happy to grab him at 1.05.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

1.07 TE Michael Mayer, 6'4 250 lbs, Notre Dame

When researching Michael Mayer, the following terms were used to describe Mayer: “well-rounded,” “polished,” “natural instincts,” and “physical.”  In short, Michael Mayer could very well enter the league and already be a top 5 tight end before the end of his first year.  Some analysts believe that a tight end this high is a waste.  However, the position is so thin of elite tight ends (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews) that the chance to draft a player and have that position covered for the next 10 years is too great to pass up.  Some may ask: Is this going to be another Kyle Pitts situation?  My answer is, “NO!” I believe the media hyped Pitts with his acrobatic catches too much and didn’t take account of all the other characteristics that make a great tight end.  Mayer does all the little things right and all the big things great.  I believe Mayer will be the benchmark that all tight ends will be compared to for the next decade.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

1.08 WR Jordan Addison, 6'0 180 lbs, USC

Another surprise for me here. Goody went with Michael Mayer at 1.07, and Addison fell right into my lap. With fantasy managers so desperate for a productive TE, I understand why some could pull the trigger early on Mayer. Not me.. Give me a potential stud WR every time. Addison is my WR3 in rookie drafts, so I’m super excited to grab him with the 8th pick.

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

1.09 WR Kayshon Boutte, 6’0 205 lbs, LSU

Boutte is possibly the most skilled WR in this draft class.  He is built like Ja’Marr Chase and runs with the same kind of grace and effortlessness.  I don’t believe he is quite as good as Chase, but he should be a quality WR in the NFL.  LSU has a good reputation for putting high caliber WRs in the league, and Boutte is the next in line.

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

1.10 QB Will Levis, 6’3” 232 lbs, Kentucky

The ultimate “profile over production” NFL prospect. Scouts have been drooling over Levis’ prototype QB body and arm for years. The problem is, he wasn’t a very good college quarterback. If you watch his highlights, you’ll walk away thinking he’s a superstar in the making. If you watch his tape, you’ll weep over his inconsistency and inability to transcend his situation. He makes everything look easy, from the sublime throws to the ridiculous interceptions. If (capital letters, bold type if) he can improve his mechanics and decision making, we’ll see that superstar come out and dominate for years to come. If he can’t, there will be a lot of damning comparisons to failed QB prospects of the past.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

1.11  RB Zach Evans, 6’0 215 lbs, Ole Miss

While Zach Evans lacks the pass catching prowess that many look for in a running back in the NFL, it’s hard to ignore his premier rushing ability.  Sure, the pass blocking needs work, but many running backs struggle with that straight out of the gate in the NFL.  His burst and fantastic 40 time show that he can be trusted with early downs to gain critical yards.  Lastly, it’s true that he’s not the best running back in the class, but he’s being overlooked.  

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

1.12 RB Tank Bigsby, 6'0 213 lbs, Auburn

Watching Bigsby tape is such a joy. The former track star shows off his ability to accelerate every time he sees an opening. The right landing spot could make the idea of landing him here at the back end of the first round purely a fantasy. While he was not used much in the passing game in college, his quickness and explosiveness tell me that given the right scheme, he could certainly be useful in the passing game at some point. Despite his quickness, breakaway speed is a small concern but there is a ton of upside with Bigsby. 

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

2.01 RB Zach Charbonnet, 6'1 222 lbs, UCLA

How I rank Bigsby and Charbonnet may flip-flop multiple times between now and when I am on the clock in my dynasty leagues. Charbonnet has a physicality to his game that is made for Sundays. He finishes runs strong and sheds arm tackles effortlessly. Charbonnet also has fantastic instincts and vision when he runs the ball. That part of the game will not be an adjustment for Charbonnet. Minor concerns about his pad level, I think he has gotten so used to effortlessly breaking tackles that it has caused him to run a little taller than he should. An issue very easily fixed by some coaching. He is also not likely to generate a ton of big plays at the next level but there have been many successful backs with that same issue.

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

2.02 QB Anthony Richardson, 6’4 232 lbs, Florida

I wanted Richardson at my earlier pick, but I was delighted to see he was still available.  It’s very true that Richardson is far from polished, but in fantasy football, he has the greatest ceiling of the class.  The raw talent can’t be drafted before Young, Stroud or even perhaps Levis, but there’s a chance he could rise above them in the right system.  Players like Fields and Hurts have shown that the best quarterback in the draft may not be the best in fantasy football.  I’m not saying he’s Josh Allen, but Allen’s cannon, combined with rushing ability made Cleveland look foolish for taking the safer pick in Baker Mayfield.

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

2.03 RB Sean Tucker, 5’10” 205 lbs, Syracuse

Sean Tucker is slightly smaller than the presumed ideal for an NFL running back. Outside of that, there’s not much to not like. He’s shown everything you want to see in a running back, vision, balance, acceleration, and long speed. He’s a good pass blocker, excellent receiver out of the backfield and is deadly in open space. He can run through you, he can run by you, and he can run away from you.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

2.04 WR Josh Downs, 5’10 175 lbs, North Carolina

Downs will be a highly productive slot receiver in the NFL.  He is on the small side, but his elite speed will be a difference maker.  He runs good, crisp routes and should get open downfield plenty.  He does need to improve on his drop rate from his final season at North Carolina, but I absolutely love getting him in the middle of the 2nd round.  

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

2.05 RB Kendre Miller, 6'0 220 lbs, TCU 

Miller is a bonafide top 5 RB in this class. At 6’0″ and nearly 220 pounds, he is an explosive runner with agility, finesse, and balance both through contact and cuts. He also has great vision and processing speed, as well as superb creative instincts. On top of that, he provides value as a receiver and a blocker on passing downs. I could see him as this year’s Kenneth Walker. However, unlike Walker, you may get to steal this RB in the 2nd round of your rookie draft.

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

2.06 WR Jalin Hyatt, 6'0 186 lbs, Tennessee

In short, Jalin had a DOMINANT senior season at Tennessee.  He hauled in 67 passes for over 1,200 yards and 15 touchdowns.  And those are not just “numbers,” as Hyatt picked up many awards in recognition of his amazing season.  Hyatt was named First Team All-America by essentially every publication that names a team and the Biletnikoff Award for college’s most outstanding receiver.  Did I also mention that Hyatt runs a 4.29 40-yard dash?  Yes, he has speed for days.  And with his size, Jalin’s catch radius is special and his route running is top notch. The one criticism of Hyatt’s is  his hands. He has had some drops in games, but it is not a problem that can’t be improved.   To grab a player in the 2nd round with this type of ability, may just win fantasy football leagues.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

2.07 TE Darnell Washington, 6'7 280 lbs, Georgia

If you looked at Washington’s stats from the 2022 college football season, you may wonder why he is even on draft radars, let alone fantasy football radars.  Well, the adage goes: You can’t teach height.  You also can’t teach size.  Washington is 6’7 and 280 lbs of human being.  With all that size, Darnell can also run.  His 4.63 40-yard dash puts him better than average for any tight end prospect; let alone one as big and as strong as him.

With his blocking ability, and short to intermediate pass catching ability, Washington will be a useful tool in fantasy football; especially at a position that lacks options.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

2.08 QB Hendon Hooker, 6'3 210 lbs, Tennessee 

This is a Superflex draft right? How in the heck did I luck out and get Hendon Hooker at 2.08? I actually have Hooker as my QB2 over the likes of Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis. He’s a better NFL talent than Bryce Young, a much better arm talent than Anthony Richardson, and more big-game proven than Will Levis. Hooker is projected as a late 2nd or 3rd round pick, however, with Hooker’s rehab going ahead of schedule, I can’t see that projection lasting long. He could be a fantastic replacement to Lamar Jackson in Baltimore (if traded). Detroit or Seattle would also be a great landing spot for the dual-threat QB.

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

2.09 WR Zay Flowers, 5’10 177 lbs, Boston College

Flowers is in the same mold as Josh Downs…whom I selected earlier in the 2nd round.  Playing at Boston College didn’t do him any favors.  If he had played in a higher profile program, I believe he would have been an ultra-producer in the slot.  His footwork and field vision have the potential to make him special.

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

2.10 RB Devon Achane, 5’9” 185 lbs, Texas A&M

Devon Achane’s size will likely prevent him from being a feature back in the NFL. Notice I said likely, not definitely. Achane has legit world class sprinter speed. When he destroys the combine, every offensive coordinator in the league is going to start licking their chops, imagining what he can do in their offense. It’s a cliche, but you can’t teach speed and Achane’s got four-leaf clover speed. He’ll be a weapon in the passing game, on jet sweeps, and could be a Pro Bowl kick returner, on top of being an elite, if carry-limited half back. You’ll see a lot of Darren Sproles comparisons for Devon Achane, I think it’s better to think of him as a smaller Chris Johnson.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

2.11 WR Marvin Mims, 5’11 184 lbs, Oklahoma

Marvin Mims is one of those receivers who had success straight out of the gate in college.  A blemish on his chances in the draft is his smaller stature, but he plays bigger than his frame suggests.  He will not blow defenders away off the block, but he is fantastic at gaining momentum as he runs.  I do worry that teams will want to utilize his ability as a returner and ignore him as a receiver on normal downs, but if they don’t make that mistake he’s sure to be an incredible value in the draft.  I’m banking on the right situation uncorking his full abilities.

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

2.12 RB Tyjae Spears, 5'10 195 lbs, Tulane

I had not planned to be four picks into this draft and still just taking running backs but here we are. The position is deep in this class. Spears profiles as a 3rd down back and does so well in space. The way he sets up angles for the moves that he has in his bag is a work of art. His size means he will likely never be a 20-plus touch guy but in a complimentary role, he could excel in the right offense. 

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

3.01 TE Dalton Kincaid, 6'4 242 lbs, Utah

Stop me if you have heard this before, a former basketball player is playing tight end. A bit of a raw prospect but has excellent ball skills and some scary upside. Dalton Kincaid would be best suited to a team where he does not have to block a ton and can be used in a “big-slot” role in the early stages of his career. He will obviously have plenty of usage in the red zone with his skill set. He still has a long way to go as a blocker and might be a little smaller than we like at tight end but to get this upside in the third round has me thrilled.

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

3.02 RB Kenny McIntosh, 6’1 210 lbs, Georgia

While McIntosh isn’t the best runner in the class, his ability in the passing game has been admirable in college and it’s sure to earn him work on third downs.  I don’t think he’ll be a starting running back, but he has the potential to turn into one.  He has a knock against him in not being able to shrink between the tackles, but he’s elusive enough to work on making defenders miss.  Bottom line, when it comes to Georgia, you give trust to the system.  With the amount of elite runners they have produced in the NFL, I gamble on McIntosh’s chances.

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

3.03 WR Rashee Rice, 6’3” 205 lbs, SMU

The Analytics Bros will look at Rashee Rice’s profile, see a four-year senior with a late breakout and move on. The Tape Bros, on the other hand, are going to love what they see. A true boundary X receiver with the speed to run by defenders and the size and strong hands to go up over the top and pluck the ball away from them. Rice is by no means a finished product. SMU’s offense was very right-handed and he ran almost exclusively from the strong side and didn’t have the most extensive route tree, but give him some NFL coaching and the tools are there to build the next stud wide receiver.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

3.04 WR Cedric Tillman, 6’3 216 lbs, Tennessee

Tillman has great 50/50 ball skills and is a very physical WR.  He is a very good blocker in the running game and in the screen game.  His ability to track the deep ball is borderline elite, but his lack of gamebreaking speed will cause issues in separation.  He sustained a serious ankle injury this past season and underwent surgery.  He will have to prove his durability at the next level.

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

3.05 RB Eric Gray, 5'10, 212 lbs, Oklahoma 

This is the point in the draft where I start grabbing RBs with the hopes of getting this year’s Dameon Pierce/Isiah Pecheco. I grabbed Gray here due to his tremendous potential. He is a violent runner with a rare blend of balance, agility, and instinct. He may be drafted as depth to start, but he could take over a backfield sooner than later. Dallas or Carolina would be a great spot for him to land. 

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

3.06 WR Parker Washington, 5'11 215 lbs, Penn St

Parker Washington doesn’t excite scouts with his physical attributes; too short to make contested catches, too heavy to be a downfield burner.  Yet, Washington thrives at running over the middle and being an openfield terror. In many ways, the similarities between Washington and Deebo Samuel are starting to materialize in my eyes.  The statistics don’t jump off the page from Washington’s 2022 season at Penn St.  He recorded 46 catches for 611 yards and 2 td’s.  However, what makes Washington an intriguing NFL prospect is his ability to go over the middle to make tough grabs and create havoc in the open field.  At this point in the draft, the risk/reward was worth it.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

3.07 RB Chase Brown, 5'11 205 lbs, Illinois

Chase Brown has the perfect combination of size and speed to be relevant in the NFL.  Each year in college, Brown showed improvement in both his running and receiving.  During his 5th year, he ran for 1,632 yards with 10 touchdowns.  A concern some may have for Brown is a propensity for fumbling; he had 5 fumbles this past year. He will need to rectify that in order for Offensive Coordinators to trust him early in his career. His pass catching abilities are what teams may fall in love with during the draft, but he will be a valuable commodity as a dual threat back with the ability to create chunk plays frequently.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

3.08 RB Israel Abanikanda, 5'11 215 lbs, Pittsburgh 

Izzy Abanikanda may not be the most talented RB in the class, however he is a smart, patient runner who always picks up positive yards. He’s a north/south grinder that could really help a team like the LA Chargers or Arizona Cardinals. Again, I’m grabbing RBs at this point with the hopes of hitting on one. 

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

3.09 RB Dwayne McBride, 5’11 215 lbs, Alabama-Birmingham

Super productive as a runner at UAB, McBride was not utilized in the passing game very often.  That is my main question with him.  He has good size and is very violent at the point of contact.  He also has decent, but not great speed.  I think the 3rd/4th round turn is a solid spot to draft him.  

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

3.10 QB Tanner McKee, 6’6”, 230 lbs, Stanford

For the past couple years, Stanford has, well, frankly, they’ve sucked. But if there was a reason to watch the Cardinal, it was Tanner McKee. At 6’6”, 230, you literally couldn’t miss him. If you watch him throw, you might think he has a literal whip for an arm, but it’s an actual human arm. An arm that can make throws all over the field. No one will confuse him for Lamar Jackson on the run, but he’s a good enough athlete to run when needed and can drop dimes on the move. He’ll need to tighten up his throwing motion, so he’s not going to be considered among the top tier of QBs in this draft, but for a team that needs a quarterback but doesn’t want to go the retread route and may not have the draft capital to take one of the elite, McKee is a worthy investment.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

3.11 RB Deuce Vaughn, 5’6 176 lbs, Kansas State

Vaughn profiles to be a fantastic third down back, but one who will not carry the load as a starter.  A prototypical pass catching running back is very appealing in fantasy football.  Although he’s not one to run through the tackles due to his small stature, players like Darren Sproles, for example, show that you don’t need to be big to succeed.  It’s hard not to hear the word dynamic when speaking of Deuce Vaughn and he’s sure to be a steal in the draft.

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

3.12 WR Rakim Jarrett, 6'0 190 lbs, Maryland 

We have reached the stage of the draft where I am now looking for unique traits. None of the players left on the board are perfect prospects or they would have been gone a long time ago. Rakim Jarrett has one of the traits that can make it easier for him to get on the field sooner and that is the ability to run after the catch. NFL offenses love simple plays to get the ball in space in the hands of guys who know how to move with it. He is a bit undersized and I am not sure about him making contested catches or being a threat downfield but if he can find the right spot, he can produce. 

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

4.01 WR Nathanial Dell, 5'9 165 lbs, Houston

This could be a pick that is ultimately being lit on fire but this is what I want to be doing in the later rounds of rookie drafts. High-ceiling guys that could pop. Nathaniel Dell may be small but he has obscene amounts of quickness in that little body. Even if he does not possess all the skills of an NFL wide receiver, I imagine he will land a roster spot as a return man somewhere if nothing else. Being on the roster is half the battle then if he can get some run at wide receiver, perhaps he can flash there. His draft capital may change my thoughts if he goes undrafted. 

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

4.02 TE Sam LaPorta, 6’4 249 lbs, Iowa

LaPorta has been tagged as a player with few red flags, but also few show stopping qualities.  But just because you don’t blow analysts away, it doesn’t mean LaPorta isn’t enticing.  He’s already shown he can be placed all over in formation and his soft hands should give him a decent floor in the receiving game.  I do worry about his pass blocking abilities, which are key at the position, but he’s not the only college tight end that will need to work on it at the NFL level.  I identify him as a top five option at the position and worthy of selection late in rookie drafts.

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

4.03 WR A.T. Perry, 6’5”, 205 lbs, Wake Forest

A.T. Perry is a player whose draft stock will be heavily dependent on his combine showing. The tape shows a receiver who’s fast and can get open on a variety of routes. Is he elite fast? Is he really 6’5”? Is he really 205? I have my doubts about the last one, but we’ll see. I’d like to have seen him go to the Senior Bowl, as Wake’s offense, while productive, could get a bit gimmicky. If he can answer his pre-draft questions positively, he may be another Jordan Addison, at a more palatable price.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

4.04 TE Zack Kuntz, 6’8 251 lbs, Old Dominion

Outside of Michael Mayer, Kuntz is probably my favorite TE.  He is definitely the most intriguing TE prospect IMO.  A massive target that also runs well, Kuntz has the potential to be a monster in the NFL.  He has great pass catching skills, but he will have to prove health and productivity at a much higher level than he competed in while at Old Dominion.  

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

4.05 RB Chris Rodriguez, 5'11 224 lbs, Kentucky 

Rodriguez is not an explosive runner, however he is a decisive runner with good feet and vision. He will be a backup for whoever drafts him, but he’s still worth grabbing due to potential injuries. He’s a dart throw here in the 4th round. 

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

4.06 WR Puka Nacua, 6'2 205 lbs, BYU

Puka has all the physical traits to be a useful piece in NFL offenses.  Nacua has a history of making the most out of his limited touches in games.  In 2021, he averaged 18.3 yards per reception; in 2022, he averaged 13 yards per catch.  Nacua runs a limited route tree (as of now), but should progress as he develops as a receiver.  Puka, at times, can get too comfortable with using his body to make catches rather than his hands.  He will need to improve on that in order to be a weekly starter in fantasy football.  However, with his ability to track the deep pass, I see a lot of Gabe Davis in his game.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

4.07 QB Jaren Hall, 6'1 205 lbs, BYU

Hall lacks the ideal size that other recent QBs have had that have succeeded early in the NFL; Joe Burrow (6’4, 215), Justin Herbert (6’6, 236), and Josh Allen (6’5, 237).  There will be questions about his overall size and whether he can handle the rigors of the physical nature of the  NFL.  However, Hall can sling the ball around.  He can make all the necessary throws expected of an NFL quarterback and has demonstrated composure in the pocket. Hall could be a quarterback prospect that is disregarded due to size that may end up being a top notch starter for years; in some ways like Russell Wilson (both also played baseball).  For a late, rookie draft flier, I love Jaren Hall’s potential.

- Goody (@JGoody77)

 

4.08 QB Stetson Bennett, 5'11 190 lbs, Georgia 

This 25 year old QB is big game tested. He has the arm strength to make most NFL throws. He’s a confident player who sees the field very well. He especially stands out if a play breaks down with his high football IQ and quick-thinking. With as many injuries at the quarterback position as we’ve seen in the NFL, Bennett could very well be a starting QB by mid-season. To grab him in the 4th round of a Superflex draft could be highway robbery. 

- Bob Miller (@DynastyBobFF)

 

4.09 RB Roschon Johnson, 6’2 223 lbs, Texas

If not for fellow Longhorn Bijan Robinson, Johnson would have been a very productive starter at Texas…or anywhere else in the country for that matter.  In my opinion, Johnson is the most underrated RB in this draft class and is a steal in the 4th round.  

- Tommy Havey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

4.10 RB Mohamed Ibrahim, 5’10”, 210 lbs, Minnesota

Mohamed Ibrahim looked like a star in the making, until opening week of the 2021 season when he tore his achilles tendon in a game against Ohio State. Then, in a near Cam Akers level comeback, he was back and ready to play for the Gophers to open 2022. He doesn’t offer much in the passing game, but to paraphrase Judge Smails in Caddyshack, the world needs two down pounders, too.

- Joel Wirth (@TheJoelWirth)

 

4.11 WR Xavier Hutchinson, 6’3 205 lbs, Iowa State

I was shocked to see Hutchinson was still available this late in our mock draft.  He gives a combination of size and speed that are sure to be coveted.  The knock against him is that he looks like a player who struggles with versatility.  A one trick pony, Hutchinson hasn’t shown he can run a multitude of routes.  That being said, he’s near the top of the class in mid field running, stretching a play and outreaching defenders.  I’m more than happy to select him this late in the draft and the burner potential leaves me more than happy to draft him.

- Tim Lazenby (@mrLazenby_)

 

4.12 WR Andrei Iosivas, 6'3 212 lbs, Princeton

The honor of Mr. Irrelevant for this mock draft goes to Andrei Iosivas out of Princeton. We are once again swinging for the fences in the last round. I am extremely curious to see how he performs at the combine when lined up next to all these other prospects from the big schools. The obvious concern here is his lack of competition at the collegiate level but the athletic profile raises an eyebrow. This is another prospect where perhaps the NFL will shed some light based on how highly he is drafted. Definitely a player I will be paying a lot of attention to during the pre-draft process.

- Doug Harrelson (@DougHarrelson)

 

Three’s Company? 

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Three's Company? 

By Joe Goodwin

At this point in the fantasy football cycle, you are probably being overloaded with the amount of information that is available to you.  One article claims a player is a “league winner,” while another puts that same players on the “Do Not Draft” list.

Needless to say, conflicting information can be troublesome for most fantasy managers.

A fantasy point that always gives me pause is the idea that an offense can have multiple high-end fantasy producers all on the same field.

I looked into that very premise to determine if that is true or not.

Last year, I found 2 examples of a fantasy explosion (3 receivers in the top 36 and a RB in the top 24) from one team:

Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR5, 305 pts), Tee Higgins (WR24, 219 pts), Tyler Boyd (WR31, 183 pts) and Joe Mixon (RB4, 288 pts).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR9, 262 pts), Chris Godwin (WR15, 242 pts), Rob Gronkowski (TE7, 171 pts) and Leonard Fournette (RB6, 343 pts).

I should also mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers were very close to qualifying for this study:

Diontae Johnson (WR8, 274 pts), Chase Claypool (WR37), Pat Friermuth (TE13) and Najee Harris (RB3, 300 points).

So, with these examples, can we predict whether these teams can produce in that same manner:

Las Vegas: DaVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Najee Harris

Philadelphia: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Know, Devin Singletary

Denver: Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Javonte Williams

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook

Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon

With the 2 teams that accomplished that feat last year, both were led by top tier quarterbacks Tom Brady (QB3) and Joe Burrow (QB8) with offenses that finished 2nd and 7th respectively in total points and 1st and 7th in passing yards.  And, each team had a run game that was overall in the bottom 10 of the league (Tampa Bay was 25th and Cincinnati was 22nd)

So, with all that being said, what key elements are we looking for in order for a team to support 3 top 36 receivers?

Key Point 1: A team with the requisite 3 receivers to achieve Top 36 WR or Top 12 TE

Key Point 2: Top Tier QB 

Key Point 3: Overall Offenses that finish in the top ten in total points and passing yards

Key Point 4: Run Offense is bottom 10 of the league

As we analyze each team and how they relate to each key point, let’s see where we stand:

Oakland: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{I’m sure some would argue that Carr is a top tier qb, but are you drafting him in your top 8 qb’s?}

Pittsburgh: Point 1, Point 4

{Pitt has the weakest qb and middle of the pack offense}

Philadelphia: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{Jalen Hurts will have to prove he can be top tier first}

Buffalo: Point 1, Point 2, Point 3

{Run game is strong on Buffalo}

Denver: Point 1, Point 2

{Hard to project with the massive upgrade in QB in the offseason on where the offense will finish; Seattle was middle tier in offense stats}

Minnesota: Point 1

{This is not a dart at Cousins, more like a “wait and see” approach with the new offense}

Cincinnati: Point 1, 2, 3, 4

{Let’s hope the improved offensive line helps continue to the trend}

Based on this data, the four teams most likely to support 3 top 36 receivers are: Cincinnati, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo.  

So, if you try to convince yourself to draft Jeudy from Denver or Claypool from Pittsburgh later in your draft in the hopes they can pay off….chances are more likely they will not.

And, if you want to wait a few rounds and grab a receiver like DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd after the 7th round, chances are good they may hit as a top 36 receiver.

Remember the numbers don’t lie!!  Only 2 NFL teams supported multiple fantasy starters in one lineup last year and most likely, that trend will continue again this year.

 

As always, “Come and knock on my door” if you need any fantasy help @JGoody77 on Twitter

 

Veterans and Dynasty Value

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Veterans and Dynasty Value

By Tim Lazenby

It’s impossible to overlook the effect of Father Time in fantasy football when it comes to dynasty format.  But just because a player isn’t as young as he once was, it doesn’t mean his value is nil.  I’m going to give you three players at each skilled position to target knowing full well my projected shelf life of elite play.  Let’s begin with the tight ends.

Tight Ends

The fall off age for a player depends on position and at tight end, the magical age is 28.  Although there are rarities, statistics show that after the age of 27, you see less tight ends dominating and the drop off in contribution beginning.  Let me give you one veteran to target for this year, one who will be good for a couple seasons and one who will be good for three or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Gerald Everett (28) is a good target for this category.  While he’s not in the upper echelon of tight ends, his value should go way up now that he’s with Justin Herbert and Co.  I do fear that he’s a temporary fix, but when he is priced at TE21 (166 overall), the price doesn’t get much better.  If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they love to throw.  And this should be exploited even more as this will be the best offensive tight end he’s played with.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Zach Ertz (31) is a great target if you’re looking for a guy with a couple years of solid fantasy play.  It may surprise some to know that after the trade to Arizona, Zach Ertz was the TE6 on the season.  And while Marquise Brown hurts his value, I don’t think Ertz will subside greatly.  It’s also going to take a couple seasons for Trey McBride to claw his way to the top of the depth chart, but even when he does, Ertz has shown he can share a field with a partner.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Call me crazy, but I think we still have tons of time left to appreciate the legend of Travis Kelce (32).  A unicorn in his own rite, Kelce has been nothing but dominant since day one.  With the receiving room having been overhauled in Kansas City, there is no doubt in my mind that Kelce will be targeted more now than ever.  Lastly, for those scared off by his age, legends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have both played over twice the amount of career games as Kelce.  While that may not be a guarantee of how long Kelce will play, he’s certainly got lots of time left.

Wide Receiver

For me, the magical age for fall off when it comes to wide receiver is 29.  There is a rapid decline once you cross over into the 30s, but that doesn’t mean that all players are dead in the water after their twenties.  Let’s throw three wide receivers, at least 29 years old, at you who are still elite in dynasty.

Very Relevant For Next Year

There’s a lot that makes fantasy managers nervous about Robert Woods (30) moving forward.  Just coming off injury and moving to a new system can be nerve wracking, but the price is right.  Despite competition in Treylon Burks, that’s where the list ends.  It also helps Woods’ case that stud Derrick Henry is coming off an injury himself, so they can’t pound the rock as hard as they want.  At WR38 (101 overall), his price has never been this good since his days in Buffalo.  Treylon will take over, make no mistake, but this season Robert Woods has a real shot at WR2 status.

He’s Got a Couple Years

With my second Charger in this article, we can’t overlook the glaring value of Keenan Allen (30).  Since 2018, Keenan Allen is the only wide receiver to get over 130 targets every season.  The early years with injuries haven’t been forgotten for some, so take advantage.  And make no mistake, this receiver room belongs to Keenan Allen, not Mike Williams.  He’s also being drafted in the 30s in some circumstances.  Go after a manager who only sees him as a one year player and take Allen all the way to the championship.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Davante Adams (29) is the only 99 wide receiver on Madden.  And even though many people disagree with many ratings, most agree on this one.  That being said, some are concerned now that Davante is going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.  I’m going to go on record and state that talent is talent.  Adams is special and he’ll shine no matter where he goes.  It also doesn’t hurt that I think Carr is underrated.  I can’t see a world in which Davante Adams isn’t elite for at least another 3-5 years and hopefully you can’t either.

Running Backs

Everyone knows that the shelf life is the shortest with the running back.  Being the most physical position in the league, it makes complete sense.  It’s also the hardest to find true value.  Once a running back hits 26 years old, I begin to get nervous.  Here is a list of three running backs, 27 or older, to consider under the previous noted criteria.

Very Relevant for Next Year

The list of running backs is more sparse than other positions.  Ezekiel Elliott (27) is a name this season, in dynasty, that many managers are treating like a ghost.  It makes sense as 2021 was his worst year to date, but let’s not forget the situation the man is in.  It is true that Tony Pollard is chomping at the bit, but the reality is that the Cowboys are far too financially invested in Zeke to not showcase him.  He still also plays behind arguably the best O-line in the league and the passing options have decreased from last year.  Zeke has never been cheaper.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Going back to back and featuring Titans, I’m going with Derrick Henry (28) here.  I can’t recall a more dominant runner in recent history than Henry.  A giant among mortals, Henry broke many hearts as he went down with injury last season.  And while I don’t think he’ll be up to speed immediately, it won’t take forever.  The cupboards are also not overflowing with running backs to take a stab at his crown.  In redraft, he’s still quite expensive, but in dynasty he’s ripe for the picking.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

I’d be lying if I thought any running back over 26 could be a surefire bet to fit this category, but if you’re forcing my hand, I’m going right back to the Chargers in Austin Ekeler (27).  I know I’m super pro-Chargers here, but there is good reason to be.  If the Chargers hadn’t drafted Isaiah Spiller, I’d be more nervous, but this gives shelf life to Ekeler.  Now he doesn’t have to be on the field all the time and he can be used in far less physical situations.  Much like Henry, in redraft the value is high, but in dynasty, you can still make a profit.

Quarterbacks

Lastly, we move on to the most critical role in all of sports.  In fantasy, especially if you are playing 2 QB or superflex, hitting the right value on quarterbacks is essential.  The longevity of a quarterback is the best of the bunch, but that also makes it harder to take advantage of a good value.  Once a quarterback hits 33 years old, I get leery.  But, have no fear, as I am going to give you three quarterbacks to go for in dynasty who are 34 year old or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Well, this category was much easier than the others as there are only four starting quarterbacks that are 34 or older.  The answer to this first one is quite simple.  Although Tom Brady is one I’d take for sure for next year’s value, I’m going Aaron Rodgers (38) because I want a chance at more years.  Though Rodgers is signed for multiple years, I never quite trust him.  And for that reason, if you’re only focused on winning the championship, he’s a great target.   With many worried managers just wanting him off their plate and willing to sacrifice the value, the time is now to go for A-Rod in dynasty.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Although for many young fans, Matt Ryan (37) is all they’ve ever known of Atlanta, he’s getting a fresh start in Indianapolis.  And while he isn’t the MVP he once was, there’s still plenty left in the tank.  With no ready option for the Colts under center, Matt Ryan will have a few years to show off his skills.  And as the QB21 (151 overall) in drafts, there are plenty of managers not seeing his full value.  He’s one of the few late quarterbacks with the upside of a QB1.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

It should come to no surprise that Matthew Stafford (34) will be the winner of this category.  Even if he wasn’t elite, which he is, his Super Bowl win will give him ample time to stick around in one of the league’s best offenses for years to come.  Like previous entries in this article, the value may not be there in redraft, but in dynasty, Matthew Stafford may have the biggest value and upside of any quarterback in the league.

Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

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Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

By Steve Uetz

 

As you seek a Championship in your dynasty league, a question to ask is this:

Is the short-term success with an aging asset worth the potential temporary sacrifice of future talent?

Welcome to the Dynasty Dilemma of Zach Ertz

I find Tight Ends to be a notoriously scarce position group for fantasy football. Since talented youth is often the priority in dynasty leagues, I find myself questioning the proper course of action with 31-year-old TE Zach Ertz. With Ertz’s resurgence in Arizona, I have been asking myself these questions: Is Zach Ertz an exception to the rule of prioritizing youth? Is taking the chance on an older asset worth the potential price of acquisition?

Zach Ertz’s dynasty dilemma began in his final games as a Philadelphia Eagle. Leading into the 2021 season it was clear that he and Eagles were not on the same page regarding a potential contract extension. Philadelphia had expressed their appreciation of Ertz but continued to seek a team-friendly deal for his services.

After a very up and down first six games of the 2021 season, Ertz was surprisingly traded to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals were seeking to fill the void left by TE Maxx Williams after he unfortunately suffered a season-ending knee injury. Ertz suddenly became fantasy relevant again. In the 11 games he played with the Cardinals, he averaged nearly 7.5 targets and 5 receptions per game totaling 56 catches for 574 yards and 3 TDs.

What is the proper course of action with Zach Ertz? Is he an asset to BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

 

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with Zach Ertz is very similar to that of RB James Conner due to the current state of the Arizona Cardinals organization. As stated in Conner’s dynasty dilemma: in the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Ertz currently finds himself with a projected increased opportunity for targets.

RB Chase Edmonds and WR Christian Kirk are now out of town and AJ Green remains unsigned. The pass catching core of the Arizona Cardinals currently looks like this: DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and Antoine Wesley.

Ertz’s revival in the desert earned him the type of contract that he was seeking in Philadelphia. Ertz was given a 3 year - $31 million deal with $14 million guaranteed. Ertz holds legitimate appeal for the 2022 season being a part of Arizona’s fantasy-friendly offense. He quickly became a reliable target for Kyler Murray on a team that hasn’t had a dependable TE option in a very long time. For the 2022 season he should be considered a back end TE1 due to the unique blend of increased projected opportunity and scarcity at the TE position.

 

 

It is true that fantasy value can be had with aging veterans like Ertz, but the priority in dynasty leagues should be youth. I believe there was a fair reason the Eagles were unwilling to pay Ertz anything more than a team-friendly contract. He simply did not look like the same player in his final season and a half in Philadelphia. While he still contributed to the offense, albeit inconsistently; he didn’t look near as quick or as explosive as he did in his early seasons and Pro Bowl awarded seasons (2017-2019), especially compared to fellow TE Dallas Goedert.

At this point of his career Ertz is most appealing to a very specific type of dynasty team. Strong TE-needy contending teams is where he needs to be rostered. There is appeal to sell since he is most useful to a smaller percentage of teams across your dynasty league. If you are a current Ertz holder and that above criteria doesn’t apply to you; then you should absolutely be willing and looking to sell him to a team that does fit that criteria. It is perfect; even if that strong contending team already has a decent TE, Ertz can still be dangled out for bait as a solid depth piece.

 

There is a case to be made where he is still a valuable hold initially for middling to borderline contending teams where TE depth is needed. This is a temporary hold situation to see where you stand across your league after the first few weeks. In this specific instance, let’s say your team is struggling to earn wins, Ertz should be moved to a contending hopeful. However, if your team is earning wins and you are appearing to be an outside contender after all; I’d find holding to be appropriate.

Ultimately, it would be optimal to trade Ertz away for whatever draft capital you can prior to your dynasty leagues’ rookie draft due to the reasons I laid out above. Or if you start the season with Ertz, it would be opportunistic to move him immediately if and after he pumps out a big game early in the season.

I think a reasonable return for Ertz would be a 3rd round rookie pick plus a young depth piece at a position of need. A strong contending team seeking a championship would benefit from Ertz’s opportunity in the fantasy-friendly Cardinals offense; giving up a 3rd round rookie and a young player would be worth it for both sides.

I do believe there is legitimate reason to be optimistic with Ertz in 2022, however I fear the optimism will be through a shorter-term lens rather than a longer-term lens. Looking through the longer-term lens is where I prefer to consider roster management action. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the short-term value is more palpable compared to the long-term.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

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Secret Leaders

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Hidden Gems

By Tim Lazenby

In the National Football League, greatness is often measured by the obvious statistics.  Players like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase were heralded for historic seasons among wide receivers.  Looking at the numbers, like touchdowns and receiving yards, it is quite apparent.  The same can be true of any position.  At quarterback, players like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are recognized due to their touchdowns and interception ratio.  Among running backs, Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler dominated with their yardage and touchdowns.  And at tight end, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce reigned supreme.

But, there are many statistics that are not so easily discovered.  In dynasty fantasy football, we need to look for the hidden numbers and potential, as these players will be on our teams for years to come.  Drafting or trading by looking at obvious stats can be expensive, but if we look a little deeper, there are players in the league who were the best at what they did going largely unnoticed in 2021.  Below I’ve listed three players at each skilled position who lead the league in something most managers will find surprising.

Wide Receivers

Contested Catches

Although there are many wide receivers who caught more and scored more touchdowns, among contested catches, Terry McLaurin led the league with 25.  It’s even more impressive when you consider he caught 77 total in 2021, meaning he fought for every inch.  This can be looked at negatively as some would say there is a lack of separation, but I choose to look at the bright side.  I want a receiver who can catch those 50/50 balls.  And although he’s not looked fondly among many, Carson Wentz is an improvement over Taylor Heinicke.  So McLaurin should do even better next year catching from, arguably, his best NFL quarterback yet.

Catch Percentage

Target share is a big proponent when looking at wide receivers.  The chance at more targets means the chance at more fantasy points.  But, it is also more important to catch the balls that come your way.  A target not caught nets you nothing.  Many rookies gained acclaim last year, but Rondale Moore was seen as a disappointment by many.  Despite the haters, you should know that he led all wide receivers in 2021 in catch percentage with 84.4%.  Finding a cheap option that catches better than four out of five should be one readily sought after.

Red Zone Target Share

Not too many elite dynasty wide receivers are taking more of a hit to their value than DK Metcalf.  Aside from what can be looked at as a down season, he now loses his NFL lifelong option at Russell Wilson.  Although the number might go down, Metcalf led the league last season with a 36.5% red zone target share.  One could even argue that with a lesser option at quarterback, they will need to lean on Metcalf more than ever for success in 2022.

Running Backs

Least Drops Among Eligible Players

In fantasy each year, the running back position is more and more valuable when catches are made.  While only a handful are elite at the position, there are even fewer who have sticky gloves.  Of all the running backs in the NFL, only 25 of them had at least 50 targets thrown their way.  And of those 25, only one player did not have one single drop.  Although he’s a free agent, JD McKissic will certainly garner interest as an excellent pass catching running back.  And if he returns, much like Terry McLaurin, his play should improve with an upgrade to quarterback.

Average Yards After Contact

A team’s ability to establish the running game is well known to be important, and there are a limited number of rushers who are pure power runners.  Hindered mostly by injuries, not only last season but his entire career, Rashaad Penny truly soared at the end of the 2021 season.  While his first place average yards after contact isn’t likely to remain at a whopping 4.2, it is a good sign that the former first round pick has plenty left in the tank.  Whether he stays in Seattle or signs elsewhere, he’s surely shown enough to get the ball often to start next season.

Red Zone Attempts

Among running backs, it is truly difficult to find many categories that Jonathan Taylor did not lead.  Arguably the most elite option at running back, Jonathan Taylor is insanely expensive in dynasty and redraft formats alike.  There are others, however, who also did well last season.  In 2021, the running back with the most red zone attempts may shock you.  Damien Harris, after Taylor, had the most red zone attempts with 30.  His touchdowns in the red zone were also impressive, ranking him third in the league.  Despite the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson and the carousel of other backs that Bill Belichick loves to use, Damien Harris is leaned on more than almost any other running back when it matters the most.

Tight Ends

Average Yards after the Catch

Tight end is a finicky position to be sure.  Finding massive fantasy relevance at the position is a tall task and finding one at a discount is an even bigger mountain.  Although there are many with more yards after the catch, when you consider per reception, Jonnu Smith led all tight ends last year with 8.3.  As Mac Jones grows, Jonnu Smith is certainly to be rewarded.  And if Hunter Henry misses any time, Jonnu Smith is sure to shine.

Snap Count

Take a guess which tight end ran the most snaps in 2021.  Mark Andrews?  Kyle Pitts?  Travis Kelce?  What if I told you it was Dalton Schultz with 993?  In fact, only three other non-quarterbacks ran more than Schultz; with first place Cooper Kupp leading Schultz by only 31.  It’s truly insane to consider that Dalton Schultz ran more snaps than the likes of Aaron Rodgers and among tight ends, it wasn’t even close.  As well as he did last season, Dalton Schultz can certainly only do better with how much he is on offense with the Cowboys.

Red Zone Targets

As tight ends are usually the most touchdown dependent position in fantasy football, finding one who is used inside the 20 yard line is a must.  With a higher probability of getting that six points plus yards, you should know that Dawson Knox led all tight ends last year in targets and receptions inside the 20; equalling 8 of his total 14 touchdowns.  And while his touchdown ratio should fall next season due to its lack of stability, his usage in the red zone should continue moving forward as no one attempted more red zone passes last season than Josh Allen.

Quarterbacks

Time in the Pocket

Pocket passers are usually less than desired when it comes to fantasy.  A quarterback without rushing upside is completely dependent on what his receivers can do.  Time in the pocket is often associated with more opportunities to make the perfect pass, but it also allows the quarterback time to make his own play.  Among all starting quarterbacks, surprisingly, Jalen Hurts led the way in time between the snap and either throwing the ball or pressure.  With so much time on his hands, Hurts ran more than any other quarterback last year, while generating more yards than anyone else at the position and scoring double digit rushing touchdowns.

Average Net Yards Gained

One of the signs of a good quarterback is net yards gained per pass.  Short catches are great, but longer stretch plays can allow more probability of a touchdown.  True pocket passes are becoming more rare in the league and it may surprise you to know that Jimmy Garoppolo led the National Football League in average net yards gained in 2021 with 7.68.  While much of this can be attributed to weapons such as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, Jimmy G’s talent certainly can’t be overlooked completely.  Although Garoppolo is moving on from San Francisco, he’ll find a home and have success and a price fantasy managers can get on board with.

Red Zone Completion Percentage

There’s not a lot more satisfying than a receiver catching that perfect ball for a touchdown.  The quarterback has to remain calm and collected in general, but in the red zone, it takes even more prowess to succeed.  In 2021, none other than Jameis Winston led the league inside the ten yard line with a completion percentage of 77.78%.  That’s right.  Over three quarters of all balls he threw in the red zone were caught and of all his touchdowns, only three were caught beyond the twenty yard line.  While it’s only a sample size, as he was hurt for a portion of last season, he’s shown the capability before and at his price point, it’s an obvious choice.