Tennessee Titans

AFC South Predictions

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AFC South Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

Now that the schedule for the 2022 NFL season is out, I thought it would be fun to predict how these teams would be for this upcoming season.  These predictions are based on previous results, byes and straight up gut feelings.  Although some results are not surprising, I was shocked at some of these predictions.

 

Houston Texans

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 3-13-1

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Texans have made improvements to be sure, especially on defense, but they still have work to do.  The offensive weapons aren’t completely lacking, but the explosion, particularly on the ground, is still missing.  Davis Mills still needs time to develop and until he is protected more, it’s going to be a while.  As much as I love Brandin Cooks, he can’t do everything for the Texans anymore.

 

Situation to watch

Like I mentioned before, I really need to see some explosion in the running game.  Highly anticipated draftee, Dameon Pierce will be one to watch and we’ll have to see if Marlon Mack still has gas left in the tank.  The Texans haven’t instilled fear into the opposition at running back for a while now and this needs to be happen soon.

 

Conclusion

I truly believed in my heart that the Texans were due for an improvement, albeit a slight one in 2022.  Upon looking at the schedule, I guess that isn’t the case.  I only see them winning one game in their division, making the mountain all the more higher to climb.  A prediction of basement dwelling is upon us.

 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Record in 2021: 9-8-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 12-5-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

It’s obvious that the biggest weapon is phenom Jonathan Taylor, but we can’t forget that this team is stacked from top to bottom.  Utilizing an underrated defense, and sneaky good receivers, they’ll improve greatly from 2022.  The only worry is that their fifth starting quarterback in as many years may not get up to speed right away, even though it is Matt Ryan.  Just remember the 37 year old isn’t the same guy who played in Super Bowl LI.

 

Situation to watch

Although many people have their focus on Matt Ryan, I am actually more excited to see how Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue do in Indianapolis.  They are two of the quieter acquisitions this offseason for players of their caliber.  I am also anxious to see what happens with Xavier Rhodes.  He may not be the same caliber as he was years ago in Minnesota, but he can’t still help if he stays.

 

Conclusion

It’s probably not shocking for most to see such an assessment.  While the Colts started strong in 2021, which should be repeated, I don’t see the rapid decline that happened at the end of last season.  There was a lot of hate coming Carson Wentz’s way, but now the Colts have no excuse.  Indianapolis is poised to lead the division in 2022.

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record in 2021: 3-14-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The defense for the Jaguars was appalling last season.  Management went and grabbed two studs in the draft to address this.  Shad Khan also opened the vault this offseason, signing many offensive pieces to help Lawrence.  Let’s not forget that Jacksonville will get a healthy Travis Etienne moving forward.  I do worry about the newest signings not being game breakers.  Depth is great, but monster starters are also needed.

 

Situation to watch

Above anything else, I'm sure I’m not alone in my curiosity toward Doug Pederson’s second stint at coaching.  With Urban Meyers setting a garbage fire last season, it will be interesting to see what the former Super Bowl winning coach does to address the situation in Jacksonville.  I always thought Pederson was unjustly let go, so we’ll see if he proves me right.

 

Conclusion

I am possibly the most bullish non Jaguars fan in the world with my prediction for 2022.  The four road wins I am seeing them accomplish next season certainly helps more than anything for Trevor Lawrence and company.  And although I said it before, A healthy Etienne should make a world of difference for the Jags in 2022.

 

 

Tennessee Titans

Record in 2021: 12-5-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Even at 28 years old, Derrick Henry continues to defy Father Time.  His impact as a true smasher can’t be understated and there is a threat at all times that he is on the field.  Boasting fantastic health before last season, there is a slight worry his body won’t be as resilient moving forward.  The team is going to have to adjust for the eventual transition that needs to take place.

 

Situation to watch

.The chalky answer is the one I’m going with here. WIth AJ Brown now playing for the Eagles, the Titans now focus on other faces.  Although the entire receiver room isn’t new, Robert Woods and Treylon Burks will be very interesting to watch.  Will Robert Woods be the same man after the injury?  And will Treylon Burks be able to fill Brown’s shoes moving forward?  Only time will tell and I’m excited to see the results.

 

Conclusion

It’s not that the Titans are worse than they were in 2021, it’s more that other teams have gotten better.  I see a few teams that they would have beaten in 2021 rising about them in 2022.  The departure of AJ Brown should also rock the boat a bit when it comes to their success.  That being said, I don’t see the Titans being down for long.

Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

By Alex French

 

The NFL draft is just a couple days away, which means your rookie drafts are quickly approaching. With this in mind, it's time to figure out if your team is ready to. Win now, or if you’re building for the future. So, it’s time to evaluate those veterans and roster spots to determine what lies in the future. Today, we take a look at what to do with former NFL rushing champion, Derrick Henry.

 

First and foremost, it’s important to self-evaluate. This can be difficult, but it's important to be as honest as possible with your team evaluation. Some NFL teams even struggle with this, however, if you’re able to do it correctly, success is in the future. So, are you in a position to make a run at the title in your league? Or are you in a position where you might make the playoffs? Alternatively, are you a team that would be competing for that first overall pick in the 2023 rookie draft? Once you’ve determined which category your team fits, the dilemma becomes much clearer. If your evaluation leads you to the ladder, and your poised for a title run now, maybe you want to consider acquiring Henry. Let’s evaluate further.

By far one of the best overall athletes in the entire league,Henry defied the odds last season. In 2020,Henry rushed for over 2000 yards with 17 touchdowns. Incredibly, in 2021, he was on pace to do it again before his season was cut short by a foot fracture.  In previous seasons, a foot fracture was more often than not a season ending injury, yet Henry refused to let that happen. He returned for the Tennessee Titans playoff game. He managed 62 yards and. A touchdown, but it wasn’t enough. The fact Henry returned at all is encouraging for fantasy managers looking at their title chances in 2022. If you have a later round rookie pick, it will likely help your team less than what Henry represents. This is where self evaluation becomes critical. If you’re looking at a youth filled roster, or maybe one where you don’t really have studs anywhere you may want to consider the opposite side and read the following paragraphs.  As a contender, you can be encouraged that Henry was off to an incredible start with 937 rushing yards in just eight games. He also chipped in 154 receiving yards. Despite playing in just eight games, he still finished at RB22 on the season. Interestingly enough, he was also on pace to have a career best 42.5 receptions. With newly acquired Robert Woods coming off a late season ACL tear, the Titans may need Henry to catch passes again. As a contender, make your move during the rookie draft to acquire Henry.

 

 

That all being said, there are still health concerns here. As good as Henry was for your fantasy team, he missed more than half the season with a foot fracture. As we;’ve seen in many cases before, this can be a lingering issue. Of course Henry came back for the Titans playoff game, but he clearly wasn’t himself with just 62 yards. Henry has seen an incredible workload over his career, and it's entirely possible it's catching up with him. In addition, Henry is already an outlier from a production standpoint. He continues to be a top fantasy running back despite his lackluster usage in the passing game. Running backs see their production fall off quite significantly after turning 26, and Henry just turned 28. With running backs, it's always better to get out a year too early than a year too late, think Todd Gurley. Gurley was risky due to a well documented knee issue, but let me ask you, is a foot injury all that different? I think now is the time to trade him away. It’s entirely possible to imagine Henry having a top 20 finish at the position, but that’s a risk I’m willing to accept. 

 

So if he’s a trade candidate, what do we do? Well, there’s a few ways to approach the situation. As mentioned previously, rookie draft season is right around the corner. It’s not unreasonable to ask for a first rounder for Henry. I would look to target your favorite back in this class. If that happens to be Breece Hall, you may have to add your own picks to swing a trade as Hall is currently the first pick of rookie drafts. If you’ve had Henry on your team though, chances are you have a later round pick. I’d be willing to offer a late first and Henry for the 1.01 if that may be enough. If not, Kenneth Walker has been receiving a lot of hype lately, and has an incredible athletic profile as well. His current ADP is pick 3. That may be much more attainable. 

This may be an unpopular opinion, and it's certainly risky, but a 28 year old running back coming off a foot fracture, with the workload of Derrick Henry, is more risk than I’m willing to take. In order for Henry to hit value going as the fourth overall pick, you need an outlier season of close to league lead in rushing yards and likely 12 or more touchdowns. Pair that with how little passing game work Henry gets, and you’re already asking for a lot. Add in returning from a foot fracture, and you’re approaching something close to hitting on a 5 tier parlay. That’s not a gamble I’m willing to take. 

 

Check out all our other great content on the website, and you can find me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

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AFC South Best Values

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AFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Now that we’re knee deep into the off season, many of us are looking for any taste of fantasy football relevance whatsoever.  A wise dynasty manager, however, needs more than just a taste to satisfy their football hunger pains.  We, as managers, should always be looking to improve our ever evolving fantasy franchises.  Whether you are trying to get out of the basement, finally be a playoff contender or even repeat as champion, the common thread is that a winning manager doesn’t sit on his riches.  And in this crucial time before the NFL Entry Draft, you should be looking at value players to add to your team.  Today, let’s dive into the best values for each team in the AFC South.

 

Houston Texans: Quarterback – Davis Mills

What a whirlwind it’s been for the Houston Texans.  The drama of Deshaun Watson seemed to have overtaken every aspect of the team’s story, but now that Watson has moved on with the Cleveland Browns, we can finally think about anything else in Houston.  The situation is quite dire on the outside, but if we dig a little deeper, there are diamonds covered in coal dust.  There weren’t many players last season as unrecognized for their efforts as Davis Mills.  Even with all the drama, haters, and lack of weapons, Davis Mills quietly put together a nice rookie season.

It must have been crazy for Mills.  Here you are, drafted to a team with seemingly no chance to play, and suddenly, you are thrust into the limelight with fantasy and real life fans alike demanding greatness.  Anyone who says the Houston Texans skilled players are near the bottom of the league aren’t wrong, but even with them, Davis Mills actually performed better than most think.  There are obvious differences, but under a more stringent microscope, Mills compares closer to fellow rookie, Mac Jones.  You also have to discount Mills’ first six games where he got booed by his own fans for not being named Deshaun Watson.  As the season grew, Mills did more with so little than most other quarterbacks.  Moving forward, he’s not a top tier QB1, but he’s surely got a shot at being a decent, dependable QB2.  The price is right for picking.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Wide Receiver – Parris Campbell

There was a time when the name Parris Campbell brought nothing but excitement.  In 2019, the Indianapolis Colts took Campbell as the seventh wide receiver off the board and for many, he was a total steal.  In his senior year, he absolutely exploded from his norm and this was what many thought was just things to come.  At the NFL level, however, he’s yet to show anything close to those “true colors”.  He’s also been injured each and every year.  Most critics have already written him off, but I think there’s a world in which Parris Campbell still holds value.

Admittedly, the exodus of Carson Wentz was somewhat shocking to me.  I knew that there was a chance, but with what the Colts invested to get him, I was sure it was too soon to cut him loose.  Once I saw the Matt Ryan move, it all made sense.  And, this is the same reason why moving for Parris Campbell makes sense.  Matt Ryan ain’t no spring chicken, as they say, but he’s far from done.  Now in a strong system, with tons of support, we’ll see something closer to the Matt Ryan of old.  While everyone feigns for Michael Pittman like they always should have, everyone will forget about the forgettable Parris Campbell.  After Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan will turn to someone and I believe it will be Campbell; who’s essentially free in most leagues.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Tight End – Evan Engram

I have to confess something.  I’ve been an Evan Engram truther since I rostered him in his historic rookie season.  He was nothing short of amazing and when I say, “historic”, I’m not exaggerating.  In his rookie season, not only did he score six times, which is incredible as a rookie tight end, but he also had the 7th most receiving yards of all time.  And while I still love to watch him, I had to come to the realization that his rookie season was a fluke and he’ll always be injured or underutilized or both.  That was, until he came to Jacksonville.

While I still have faith in Daniel Jones, I have even more faith in Trevor Lawrence.  The Clemson product is elite, despite what people are saying because of his rookie season.  Jacksonville is doing what they can to build around him and Evan Engram will suit him nicely.  The receiving core isn’t among the league’s best and Etienne hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, so Lawrence will need a good safety valve to rely on.  Many managers will be coveting Dan Arnold, so there will be many opportunities to trade for Engram for next to nothing.  There’s a chance that Engram’s elite days are over, but I’m willing to try one last time in this better situation and price.

Tennessee Titans: Wide Receiver – Robert Woods

The Tennessee Titans featured one of the best receiving corps in football last season.  AJ Brown is a top three dynasty wideout for many and Julio Jones is absolutely legendary.  The depth is also fantastic with so many young options to choose from.  But, it’s almost criminal how that team couldn’t make Julio Jones shine in his only season away from the Atlanta Falcons.  I know there were injuries, but it was just insane how strongly the regression took place.  Now that he’s gone, the Titans turn to former Rams stud, Robert Woods.

While Robert Woods is no Julio Jones in his prime, he is a fantastic number two under AJ Brown.  He’s a perfect example of how to succeed in a shared receiver offense as he did it with Cooper Kupp for many years.  And while he’s not young, at 29, Woods still has lots of time to prove he’s still got it after last year’s injury.  Derrick Henry can’t be the entire offense anymore and this will force the ball to others, like Robert Woods.  We also can’t forget that Robert Woods looked so good catching balls from the likes of Jared Goff.  No disrespect to Goff, but Tannehill has to be considered an upgrade by many.  Acquire him at a WR4 cost and watch him blossom as a low end WR2 with upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Tennessee Titans 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

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Tennessee Titans 2021 Post NFL Draft Fantasy Outlook

By Tommy Harvey

Fresh off their 1st division title since 2008, the Tennessee Titans will attempt to take the next step up to Super Bowl contenders in 2021.  Their 11 wins are also the 1st double digit wins season since 2008, when they went 13-3 and lost in the AFC Divisional round.  Head Coach Mike Vrabel is the most successful HC since Jeff Fisher, going 29-19 in three seasons.  However, he is replacing Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith, who left to take the HC job in Atlanta.  Todd Downing was promoted from TE Coach to OC this offseason, and he will continue to run the same system that was in place under Smith.  Downing had previous OC experience with the Raiders in 2017, so the promotion should not be too much of an adjustment for him.

The Titans are replacing a few key contributors from last season’s team, as they lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries, TE Jonnu Smith, and OT Dennis Kelly.  Replacing them are WR Josh Reynolds, WR Dez Fitzpatrick, and OT Dillon Radunz.  Davis, Humphries, and Smith left behind 192 targets from 2020, so their replacements will have big shoes to fill if Tennessee wants to become an elite team in 2021.

2021 Draft Review

Tennessee didn’t have a ton of draft picks this year, but they did a good job of balancing offense and defense with their 8 picks.  The headliner was the 22nd overall pick CB Caleb Farley out of Virginia Tech.  A lot has been said of his back issues (two surgeries, the most recent in March) leading up to the draft, which caused him to fall to 22 for the Titans.  If healthy, Farley could be a lockdown CB1, in a division that includes QBs Deshaun Watson (for now anyways), Trevor Lawrence, and Carson Wentz.  

OT Dillon Radunz was one of the top linemen available this year, and Tennessee was able to snag him with the 53rd overall pick in the 2nd round.  That could be looked at as a steal in a few years.  He will take over for the departed Dennis Kelly and should help protect Ryan Tannehill and pave the way for Derrick Henry.  Radunz is not unfamiliar with blocking for high-caliber QBs, as Trey Lance was his teammate at North Dakota State.

My favorite pick of the Titans came in the 4th round, when they scooped up WR Dez Fitzpatrick out of Louisville with the 109th overall pick.  Fitzpatrick, 6’2 209lbs, ran in the 4.4’s during his pro day and should have a decent upside for the Titans in 2021.  In 2020 at Louisville, he had 43 catches for 833 yards and 3 TDs, in a somewhat underutilized role. Already 23 years old, Tennessee shouldn’t have to wait long for him to physically mature enough to contribute.  

Quarterback

QB Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill is entrenched as the Tennessee Titans franchise QB now, after signing a massive deal which included $62 million guaranteed before last season.  Tannehill didn’t disappoint, as he threw for over 3,800 yards and 33 TDs...and ran for another 7 TDs...in 2020.  The former 1st round pick of the Miami Dolphins originally arrived in Tennessee as the presumed backup to then QB Marcus Mariota.  However, inconsistent play by Mariota mixed with Tannehill’s ability to win games put him in the QB1 position for good in Nashville.  

The Titans need Tannehill to be a Pro Bowl caliber QB again in order for them to reach the Promised Land.  He has definitely seemed to figure out how to play in the NFL since leaving behind the Dolphins and Adam Gase.  He should be targeted as a back-end QB1 or high-end QB2 in all fantasy formats.  

2021 Early Projections:

337-510 66% 4,078 yards 36 TDs 9INTs; 51 carries, 306 yards, 4 TDs

Running Back

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry became the 2nd Titan (Chris Johnson) the 8th RB in NFL history to run for over 2,000 yards in a season in 2020. Can he do it again with an extra game on the schedule? It's a possibility, but I'd say not likely. The wear and tear on a RBs body eventually takes its toll, but Henry is a very rare breed. He has proven to be a durable thoroughbred for Tennessee, and they will continue to ride him for as long as they possibly can. 

Henry is a bonafide stud that should be considered a top-5 RB in all formats, despite not being a prime target in the passing game. In 2020, he finished as the RB3 in full PPR leagues, even with only 19 catches. In .5 PPR and standard leagues, he was the RB2 and RB1 respectively.

2021 Early Projections:

361 carries, 1,841 yards, 5.1ypc 14TDs; 34 targets, 21 receptions, 134 yards 1 TD

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

WR AJ Brown

In 14 games last season, AJ Brown saw 106 targets.  Let’s assume he plays all 17 games in 2021.  How many targets could/should he get with Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith out of the picture?  I don’t foresee another pass catcher getting 100+ targets in this offense (Corey Davis was 2nd on the team with 92 looks in 2020).  

Brown may very well be the overall WR1 in dynasty leagues, so envisioning him with close to 150 targets is not unreasonable.  With the lack of a true WR2 on the roster, Brown will be leaned on heavily in the pass game and should be a perennial Pro Bowler and potential All-Pro moving forward.  

2021 Early Projections:

145 Targets, 96 receptions, 1,430 yards 14.9ypc 14 TDs

WR Josh Reynolds

A new addition to the Titans, Josh Reynolds displayed plenty of ability while with the Rams.  He was just below some big time WRs on their depth chart.  Now in Tennessee, Reynolds should be considered their WR2. Last season in Los Angeles, Reynolds caught 52 balls on 81 targets for 618 yards.  That type of production should translate well as a possession receiver in Nashville.

2021 Early Projections:

96 targets, 64 receptions, 794 yards, 12.4ypc, 6 TDs

WR Dez Fitzpatrick 6’2 209 lbs

Another newcomer to the Tennessee roster is rookie WR Dez Fitzpatrick.  The former Louisville Cardinal was drafted in the 4th round and was a very good prospect early on in college with QB Lamar Jackson throwing him the ball.  Fitzpatrick has good size and speed, but will need to sure up his hands in order to make an impact in the NFL.  I think with a good NFL QB and coaching staff, he will do just that.

2021 Early Projections:

66 targets, 48 receptions, 706 yards, 14.7ypc, 6TDs

TE Anthony Firkser/Geoff Swaim

Jonnu Smith left Tennessee to join the New England Patriots, leaving behind a void at the Tight End position for the Titans.  Anthony Firkser performed well as a backup pass catching TE last season, but his ability...or lack thereof...to block has many wondering if he will see enough snaps.  Geoff Swaim is much less of a receiving threat, but a solid enough blocker to get on the field in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense.  

2021 Early Projections:

Firkser: 65 targets, 48 receptions, 480 yards, 10.0 ypc, 4TDs

Swaim: 28 Targets, 19 receptions, 177 yards, 9.3ypc, 1TDs

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!