Teddy Bridgewater

Post Draft Report: Broncos

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Post Draft Report: Broncos

By Zach Owen

Draft Picks

  • Round 1, Pick 9: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
  • Round 2, Pick 35: Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
  • Round 3, Pick 98: Quinn Meinerz, OG, Wisconsin-Whitewater
  • Round 3, Pick 105, Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State
  • Round 5, Pick 152, Caden Sterns, S, Texas
  • Round 5, Pick 164, Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana
  • Round 6, Pick 219, Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
  • Round 7, Pick 237, Kary Vincent, CB , LSU
  • Round 7, Pick 239, Jonathon Cooper, LB, Ohio State
  • Round 7, Pick 253, Marquiss Spencer, DE, Mississippi State

Notable Free Agency Moves

  • Additions
    • Teddy Bridgewater, QB
    • Mike Boone, RB
    • Ronald Darby, CB
    • Kyle Fuller, CB
  • Losses
    • Phillip Linsay, RB
  • Re-Signed
    • Shelby Harris, DE
    • Justin Simmons, S
    • Von Miller, LB

One of the biggest concerns going into 2021 for the Broncos was QB and a lot of people were surprised when they didn’t draft one at #9, especially with Justin Fields (one of my favorites in this class) being available. They did pick up Teddy Bridgewater, who will compete but likely isn’t much of an upgrade over Drew Lock if at all. There’s also rumors about the Broncos picking up Aaron Rodgers, who would be a major upgrade and put this team in a position to compete right away. Right now though it is just a rumor so it’s best just to assume it’s going to be a QB competition between Lock and Bridgewater. Another offensive need of theirs was at RB so drafting Javonte Williams to pair with Melvin Gordon has given Denver a pretty solid RB duo. They should also be getting Courtland Sutton back from injury which coupled with their young receivers taking a step forward (TE Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler) will really help this offense. 

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos definitely did some work beefing up the defense this offseason. They added and re-signed multiple CBs in addition to bringing back big impact players like Von Miller and Shelby Harris. With all that, their defense is going to be pretty tough in all areas of the field. Will it be enough to overcome their shortfall at QB? I’m not convinced, though it has been done before.

Fantasy Highlights

The biggest question for the Broncos right now is clearly their QB. Drew Lock left a lot to be desired last year and many fans were ready for them to draft one with the 9th overall pick. The Broncos did not so we’re left with an awkward competition at QB. It seems like they want Lock to be their guy and Bridgewater is there to light a fire under Lock to get him to take a step forward. I think either of these guys could end up with the starting job though so neither will really be worth a whole lot until that is decided. I think Lock has the highest ceiling since he is younger and definitely could take a step forward while we pretty much know what Teddy can do. Regardless, either of them will be set up to succeed with all the weapons the Broncos have.

Now outside of QB, the Broncos have a lot to be hopeful for on offense. They have multiple very good receiving options that will help stretch the field. Cortland Sutton has been a star before getting injured last year and I expect him to get back to form in 2021. There is definitely some concern since ACL tears can sometimes cause lingering issues but I wouldn’t be concerned just yet. Sutton is actually probably a good value pick up in Fantasy due to his injury concerns. I also think Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant are pretty good buys in Dynasty since I expect both of them to take a big step forward this year. Coupled with the QB question marks, all three of these guys could be pretty good value pick ups.

Finally a look at the RB group for Denver. Again, they are set up pretty well with some good options to run out each week. Melvin Gordon was a pretty good value pickup before the draft but adding Javonte Williams (one of my favorite RBs in this class) will definitely cut into that. I don’t expect Williams to be a workhorse right off the bat but I could see him taking over a good chunk of the work as the season goes on. Gordon should still have some value though, especially at the beginning of the year. So if you’re competing and RB needy, now is probably a pretty good time to pick him up for cheap. Don’t expect to hold onto him all season though. See how things develop and if you do have him or end up buying him, I’d look to sell him towards the early-middle part of the season (think around week 6 or 7) when I expect Williams to get more heavily involved.

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome to 2020 NFL team breakdown!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically...each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this, but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from your's truly. Throughout the team breakdowns, be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with the coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better...always!

Let’s reveal where the offensive cores fit, shall we?

BIG BUY:
Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BUY:

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos

NEUTRAL:

Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings

FADE:

Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and The Washington Football Team.

We begin our team breakdown with the fantasy friendly NFC South…

Carolina Panthers

Overall this offense is an absolute BUY! The offense begins and ends with Christian McCaffrey, but there is a lot to like in the offensive skill position core.

QB ‪Teddy Bridgewater: high upside QB2, $1 in 14 team auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week. Teddy’s NFL journey has been a wild ride, he now finds himself on a Carolina Panthers team with a new head coach in defensive-minded Matt Rhule and a new offensive coordinator with aggressive and fast-pace play calling Joe Brady; formerly the OC of the 2019 National Champion LSU Tigers. Whoa baby!

‪RB Christian McCaffrey: THE RB1, 1.01, 35% auction budget. He is a cheat code and will remain at top of the draft board until proven otherwise.

WR DJ Moore: a PPR and YAC stud, WR1, 15-17% auction budget, Round 3 target, will be absolutely smashing his name if he falls to Round 4

‪WR Curtis Samuel: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB) upside depth stash, PPR league target, 1-2% auction budget, round 13

WR Robby Anderson: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB), unpredictable big play ability makes him most appealing in Best Ball leagues, 1-2% auction budget, round 14

TE Ian Thomas: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 in deep auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week

Atlanta Falcons

This year the Falcons continue to be a consistent and fantasy friendly offense. They are in my upper echelon of offenses to target for all draft types. The Falcons offensive core fits into my BIG BUY category!

QB Matt Ryan: “Ladder Pick” QB1 has the best WR duo in the league and a new RB and TE target. I expect a lot of high scoring contests out of this team with Matt Ryan being the ultimate beneficiary. 4-6% of auction budget, round 6-7 target, he is QB worth reaching for even when conventional wisdom says to wait on QB.

RB Todd Gurley: High risk/high reward - RB2 is preferable, but would be happy with him as my RB1 if I were to go robust at WR or grab an elite TE in round 2. With a crowded backfield behind him, I would hold any of backups in Brian Hill or Ito Smith as priority FA adds. If Gurley is drafted as your RB1, I would make RB a big priority for rounds 5-9. 14-18% auction budget. Round 4 would be desirable.

WR Julio Jones:  WR1, 20-22% auction budget, round 2. He is a GO is all league formats, although I would be a bit more aggressive in best ball formats. Incredibly solid option, also highly productive and I hope that production shows up a bit more in the TD column.

WR Calvin Ridley: “Ladder Pick” - WR2 with WR1 upside. The perfect compliment to Julio Jones has been a producer each year and now he enters his 3rd season destined to breakout. Give me ALL of the Calvin Ridley shares!! 13-14% auction budget, round 4. You know the GIF of Winnie the Pooh sitting at the table with the pot of honey in front of him, his napkin tied around his neck, utensils in hand, eyes closed, smiling and dancing back and forth. Well, I’m Winnie the Pooh and Calvin Ridley is the honey.

TE Hayden Hurst: This TE1 is in a tier with Evan Engram, he will finally get his chance to shine in this juggernaut offense.

New Orleans Saints

The Sean Payton-Drew Brees brain-trust continues to be an entertaining and fantasy friendly offense. The Saints offensive core will remain a BUY!

QB Drew Brees:  QB1, 4% of auction budget, round 7-8 target, consistently productive surrounded by some of the game best weapons!

RB Alvin Kamara:  RB1, 28-30% of auction budget, round 1, PPR dream, just flat out good at the game

RB Latavius Murray:  RB3, this zero-RB draft strategy target serves as a great compliment to Alvin Kamara, if Kamara misses time Murray enters low RB1/high-RB2 territory. 5-7% of auction budget, round 9-10 target

WR Michael Thomas: The WR1, this PPR machine broke the NFL catches record last season with 144 catches. This is an average of 9 per game. 9 catches PER GAME!! I’m honestly happy if a WR gets around 9 *targets* a game. I see no sign of him slowing down. 28-30% auction budget, round 1

WR Emmanuel Sanders: One of my favorite players is now playing along side of Michael Thomas with Drew Brees throwing to him...you love to see it! WR3, 7-8% auction budget, round 9-10

TE Jared Cook: Low end TE1, 2-3% auction budget, round 9, I think any smart fantasy player would want pieces of the New Orleans offense - he may not seem like a “sexy” pick but what I think is “sexy” is opportunity in an elite offense. Also, do yourself a favor and remind yourself of what he did in the second half of the season last year.

TE Adam Trautman: A dynasty favorite, this extremely athletic rookie will be learning from a big play veteran in Jared Cook and will have the pleasure of playing Drew Brees for what he has left and possibly Jameis Winston in the future. BUY!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn...BIG BUY!!

QB Tom Brady: QB1, 3-4% auction budget, round 10. Brady enters into a smorgasbord of offensive weapons that I argue boasts the 2nd best WR and TE groups in the league and with a decent stable of RBs this team will feast. Brady will be the prime beneficiary of this offense!

RBs Ronald Jones: (RB3, 7-8% auction budget, round 7 if robust WR with elite TE strategy) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB4, 4-5% auction budget, round 10) are the only draftable RBs for 12 team drafts. LeSean McCoy and Dare Ogunbowale should be priority FA if Jones or Vaughn miss time. I want players in this offense so keep a close eye.

WRs Chris Godwin (WR1, 16-18% auction budget, round 2) and Mike Evans (WR1, 14-15% auction budget, round 3) are the most important pieces of this offense, they will help open up the running game as well as help the TE create mismatches. I love them both in all formats, I’d be willing to be aggressive to draft Mike Evans in best ball formats.

TEs Rob Gronkowski (low end TE1, 1-2% auction budget, round 9), OJ Howard (TE2 with upside to be TE1 group if Gronk were to miss time, $1 deep auction league stash, priority FA) and Cameron Brate (very late round target for best ball formats, priority FA in all other formats if Gronk/Howard were to miss time or as a bye week replacement).

I will generally be fading Gronk this year. I think the best and smart play is to target him late or for cheap in an auction draft with the hopes that he produces well enough early on to be used as a sell high candidate. I hope I am wrong on that because he is an awesome and fun player who I fear will be mainly touchdown dependent.

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder

Sleeper Files: Ian Thomas

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Sleeper Files: Ian Thomas

By Tommy Harvey

Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

In 2018, Ian Thomas filled in for injured Greg Olsen and looked like a potential future TE1 for fantasy football players.  The Carolina rookie finished that season with 36 receptions, 333 yards, and 2 TDs.  The majority of those numbers came during the final five games (25 receptions, 246 yards, and 2 TDs).

Fast-forward to 2019...Greg Olsen was back as the Panther’s starting TE, and Thomas was back to being a back-up.  His targets regressed from 49 in 2018 to 30 and he became a fantasy afterthought.  

Now, headed into the 2020 season, Ian Thomas is the starter and Carolina is ushering in a new head coach (Ron Rivera), new offensive coordinator (Joe Brady), and new offensive scheme.  Joe Brady comes in, fresh off a national championship at LSU and he brings his RPO philosophy with him.  That same philosophy rocketed QB Joe Burrow to the Heisman Trophy and the number 1 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft.

That’s not all that is new in Carolina, as QB Cam Newton has moved on to New England and Teddy Bridgewater was brought in from New Orleans.  Bridgewater has several dangerous weapons to be a highly effective QB, but you’ll have to read Matt Kelley’s article on him.  

Greg Olsen signed with the Seattle Seahawks as a free agent in the offseason, and took 82 targets from last season with him.  Not all 82 targets will go Ian Thomas’ way, but he should see a good chunk of them.  

2020 Prediction and Fantasy Outlook:

50 receptions, 490 yards, and 5 TDs 

Part of my prediction for Thomas is his targets will increase from 30 to the 75 range.  If you go back and watch how Thaddeus Moss was used at LSU in 2019, Joe Brady likes to get his TE involved.  That is nothing new in Carolina, as Greg Olsen had a possible Hall of Fame career for the Panthers.  

Ian Thomas is currently being drafted as the overall TE22 on average, which is backend TE2 territory.  I see him finishing as the overall TE12 and backend TE1. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @dynastyprostom

Post-Hype Sleepers: Wide Receivers

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Wide Receivers

By Alex French 

The title should give it away, right? Well, I’m going to start a series over the next couple weeks where I give you 3 players from each position as post-hype sleepers. First, let’s define what I mean by post-hype sleeper: this is a player who generated copious amounts of excitement, but failed to actually breakout or in some cases even meet expectations. With our definition in place, let’s jump right in. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers 

Rewind the calendar with me for a second. Let’s go back to before the Corona Virus to this time last year. The narrative was that JuJu was arguably the top WR in dynasty formats. He was coming off a season where he had 111 receptions over 1400 yards and 7 total touchdowns. He was outstanding in 2018. The real question was if he could produce without Antonio Brown on the other side, a question that is still unanswered. 

Last season, JuJu was meant to be the primary receiver for the Steelers. However, Pittsburgh lost their QB Ben Roethlisberger to an elbow injury 2 games into the season. Left to backup QB play, the entire offense struggled. The Steelers’ quarterbacks combined to be ranked at 32 in efficiency and QBR. 

Also working against JuJu was the injury bug. He played in just 12 games in 2019, and left 2 of those games early. This year, at just 23 years old, JuJu is fully healthy, and is entering a contract year. He will be motivated to show the league how talented he is. 

Another reason JuJu fits into this category for me is the return of his quarterback. All reports out of Pittsburgh indicate Roethlisberger is healthy and feeling better than ever. In spite of the disappointments last season, I think JuJu is primed to return to 2018 form. Did I mention the Steelers have vocalized the desire to move JuJu back to the slot position? That should really open things back up for JuJu, which spells success for him and the Steelers in 2020. 

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns 

Saying last season was a disappointment for Beckham is really an understatement. Posting just 74 receptions for 1035 yards and 4 touchdowns on 133 targets. He also saw just 4 red zone targets. Both back-up tight ends for the Browns saw more. 

If we also look at his success rate against man coverage last year, there is reason to believe he was injured. After the season, news broke that he had sports hernia surgery. It has since been reported that he is fully healthy and ready for the start of camp. 

There are concerns about the Browns being a run first offense, however the passing efficiency should greatly improve. Last season Beckham had the most deep ball incompletions that were deemed the quarterback’s fault with 16. Beckham was also primarily used as a deep receiving option, which I expect to change with the new offense. 

With the off-season additions of Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills, the offensive line should be much improved. The run game should also be better to help improve the efficiency of play action passing, where Baker Mayfield flourishes. 

I think Beckham is primed to return to form and improve on his numbers all around in 2020. Last season, provided us with a realistic view of his floor...which is still productive. 

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers 

If you follow me on Twitter (@TheBlindGuyFF), you may recognize this statistic. It’s a great stat that really shows the situation Samuel faced last season. Curtis Samuel is the only receiver to finish top 15 on the season in air yards who didn’t have at least 1000 receiving yards. I think that really emphasizes the struggles he saw from the quarterback position. 

Samuel is a superb athlete, which we’ve seen in flashes at the NFL level. He showed it consistently when involved in the offense at Ohio State. He just needs the ball in his hands, which Teddy Bridgewater will do. Bridgewater is supremely accurate in the short game and with new offensive coordinator in Joe Brady coming from LSU, Samuel should see plenty of opportunity to succeed. 

Understanding at Dynasty Pros we primarily focus on dynasty, I’m going to attempt to make this series apply to redraft as well as dynasty. I realize this group of players is likely owned in your leagues, but you may be able to acquire them from the owner who spent most of last season frustrated with the production these guys provided. On the other hand, if you happen to own these guys in your league, brighter days are ahead for you. Look for my next article of the series to follow soon. 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF, and make sure to listen and subscribe to our Dynasty Pros podcast! 

Are you Teddy for Some Football?!

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Are you Teddy for some football?!

by Matt Kelley

Quaterback Peyton Super Bowl

Gone are the days of ‘Superman’ Cam Newton. Gone are the days of ‘Riverboat Ron’. Insert Teddy Bridgewater at Quarterback and Matt Rhule as the Head Coach. With fantasy being a game where you want to rely on history, predictability and opportunity, what can we expect out of the Panthers and this new look offense? 

First off, Christian McCaffery. Good at football. I’m not going to tell you something you don’t already know about the league’s most dynamic running back, the top scoring fantasy running back, and in PPR the top scoring player. Nothing should change here, even with the new coaching regime. The Panthers went all defensive in this year’s NFL draft and have signed no one of note behind CMC. All systems are a go once again. Take him in redraft, take him in dynasty, take him everywhere. 

The real questions come in with the rest of pieces in this offense. The Panthers just never got off to a rhythm last season going from Cam Newton to Kyle Allen to Will Grier. There wasn’t much that was pretty about the QB play last year in Charlotte. Parting ways with Cam Newton, the Panthers turn to Teddy Bridgewater (originally with the Vikings, horrendous injury, backup to Drew Brees on the Saints). Teddy’s journey is quite the story and he now has a chance to prove himself as a full-time starter. He’ll also have the benefit of Joe Brady calling the plays whom he will be familiar with from his time in New Orleans. In a Covid shortened off season, that could prove to be very valuable. Bridgewater started six games last year in place of Brees while he was injured. In that span the Saints went 6-0 and Bridgewater threw nine touchdowns to only two interceptions. Ball security will be huge for Carolina staying on the field as they had 20 interceptions last season in their final 10 games. Teddy can be looked at as a steady QB2 in two quarterback or superflex leagues.  The longer the offense is on the field, the more opportunities for guys like…

…D.J. Moore. Moore racked up 135 targets, 87 catches for 1175 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games (he sat in a meaningless week 17 matchup). All of that with subpar QB play. Before  you read the next sentence please know, I’m not calling D.J. Moore the same player as Michael Thomas. However, Moore is the clear  wide receiver one in Carolina and the routes that he thrives on (slants, digs, outs) are similar routes that Michael Thomas thrives on. Short, quick routes that allow the receiver to get into space and do work after the catch. In six games with Bridgewater, Michael Thomas saw double digit targets in three of those games and in another he had nine targets. This should be a solid pairing. Much like CMC, he’s a viable fantasy player in any format. 

Now, who is the third option  in Carolina? Well, it seems the Panthers paid Robby Anderson to come in and take that role (follow the money). He definitely flashed in his time with the Jets and is a deep threat that the Panthers need. Much has been made about Bridgewater’s lack of throwing the ball deep. While his arm isn’t that of Pat Mahomes, I expect him to take his fair shots with Anderson. Robby is best suited as a WR4/5 on your team until we can see what his role is a bit more definitively. 

This leaves us with everyone’s fantasy darling of last season, Curtis Samuel and tight end Ian Thomas. Samuel is still only 23 years old and the Panthers did utilize a second round draft pick on Samuel however, that was an old regime and again, they paid Robby Anderson to come in to be a difference maker on the outside. Samuel may have some games or plays that pop but, my guess is he’ll be on the field more in three WR sets, not two, and could see his target share diminish. Ian Thomas on the other hand is taking over a role that is completely vacant as Greg Olsen is now a Seahawk. Thomas has largely played behind Olsen the last two seasons  and will now seize that role for himself. Olsen saw 82 targets over 14 games last season. That wouldn’t be an unreasonable number for Thomas to see if he stays consistent. Again, a player that can benefit from Bridgewater with the intermediate routes. He has potential to sneak into the back end of the TE1 category and can be streamed in plus matchups. 

Overall, the Panthers are trending up. Coach Rhule is likely to run a faster, college influenced offensive system  that will have the Panthers running more plays per game. The defense will need to mold with all of the new pieces (and the loss of Luke Kuechly) but will surely improve as the season trudges on. They’re in a division where shoot outs are a real possibility at any point. We all know CMC and D.J. Moore are fantasy assets but don’t sleep on the rest of those Panthers.

@ThatMattKelley