Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucc..Bucc…CHOOSE!

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Bucc..Bucc...CHOOSE!

By Matt Kelley 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made the most off-season noise in the NFL. They sent Jameis Winston packing, acquired the services of six time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady, and they brought Rob Gronkowski out of retirement - one of the most dominant tight ends of all time. As a Carolina Panthers fan, this is nightmare fuel. 

The two biggest constants for the Bucs last season, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are still in Tampa as one of the league's best wide receiver duos. They have been subject to many dynasty debates. 

What does all of this change mean for them? Who is the better option for your dynasty squad?  Let’s dive in. 

Mike Evans: 

Last season was a roller coaster ride for Evans. He finished with 67 catches, 1157 receiving yards, and eight TD’s. That’s a good line for a 16 game season, and Evans compiled those numbers into just 13 games. 

Like his counterpart Chris Godwin, Evans experienced the side effects of Jameis Winston’s erratic play. 42.7% of Evans' total points last season came in a three game stretch from weeks 6-9. While fantasy managers would probably prefer a more even distribution, Evans still showed that he could put up massive totals when he’s heavily involved with the game plan. 

Evans had nine games last season where he caught four or fewer passes. While the targets were there in some of those games, those targets were coming from Winston. Much has been made of Tom Brady’s lack of arm strength, but he actually had a more accurate deep ball completion percentage (41.7%) than Winston (36.3%), this bodes well for Evans. 

Evans will be 27 when the season begins, which leaves the possibility that Evans may still have his best football days in front of him. He is a big body WR that bullies his way to the football. 

The one knock on Evans is his ability to do more after the catch. Over the last two seasons Evans ranked 36th in 2019 and 33rd in 2018 in yards after catch. Still, he continues to put up monster yardage totals due to his average depth of target, and given that Brady has always been a QB to rely on timing and accuracy, Evans could absolutely be thrown open more by Brady this season. Some of that will depend on Evans creating separation, that hasn’t always been his strongest attribute. With Brady distributing the ball, fantasy managers will likely find a better, more equal distribution to Evans’ fantasy production. 

Evans has a floor of a high end WR2 and the ceiling of a top five fantasy WR in the league. 

Chris Godwin: 

He was everyone’s fantasy darling last year to break out, and everyone was correct...very, very correct. 86 catches, 1333 receiving yards, and nine scores. My goodness. These are lofty expectations for almost any WR in the league, and Godwin produced those marks in just 14 games. Equally as impressive, Godwin ranked first in yards after catch at 574 yards. 

Throughout 16 weeks, Godwin was still the fantasy WR2 overall in points per game and total points at the position. All of this with the double edged sword that was Jameis Winston playing QB. 

Roughly half of Godwin’s snap share last season came from the slot. Brady loves to target his slot WR’s, and Godwin could be his best option to date. In early June, Bruce Arians was quoted as saying the Bucs base offense would be in 12 personnel. This is important to monitor as it could cause Godwin to play on the outside more if the Bucs often have two tight ends on the field. Even if 12 personnel is utilized more, Godwin will still be a target hog as I don’t foresee this as a move to feed more targets to O.J. Howard. Godwin is capable of still producing great numbers from the outside, and the Bucs should still run plenty of three WR sets, giving Godwin his due in the slot. 

The sky's the limit for Godwin, and he’s only 24 years old. You can expect he and Evans will continue to co-exist within this offense. It’ll be difficult for him to crack the top two spots at the WR position with Michael Thomas and Devante Adams respectively getting the massive target shares on their own teams. It’s hard to imagine a world where Chris Godwin doesn’t finish as a top 12 WR with his ceiling being in the top three at the position. 

The Choice: 

Regardless of format, both Godwin and Evans are stellar options for your fantasy squad. Almost every metric, however, says Chris Godwin is the better of the duo. I concur. On average, Godwin is going about half of a round in front of Evans in single QB leagues and he’s shown to be worth the premium pick. 

Don’t get me wrong, if someone selects Godwin, I’m not going to ignore Evans as he’ll still be great, and I’d be happy to draft him. With all things considered though, Chris Godwin is going to be a fantasy stud for years to come and a player I want on all of my fantasy football rosters. 

The 5 Best Fantasy Destinations for Raheem Mostert After Trade Request

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The 5 Best Fantasy Destinations for Raheem Mostert After Trade Request

By Tommy Harvey

Wednesday afternoon, San Francisco 49ers RB Raheem Mostert requested a trade after contract negotiations were “unproductive.”  Mostert became the 49ers lead back last season after Matt Breida went down with an injury in week 10 against the Seahawks.  He led the team with 772 yards and 8 TDs on the way to a Super Bowl LIV loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  

Mostert was somewhat of a late bloomer.  As a rookie in 2015, he was seen on four rosters (Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, and Browns).  In 2016, he was on three more (Jets, Bears, and 49ers).  Now, the 28 year old veteren is seemingly on his way out of San Fran and there are a few options for him and the 49ers...but, where is he a more valuable fantasy asset? 

 

San Francisco 49ers

If it ain’t broke, why fix it?  Raheem Mostert and the 49ers have proven to be compatible while on the football field.  The last eight games of the 2019 season...including the playoffs...Mostert ran for 715 yards and 11 TDs on 117 carries (6.11 ypc).  That included a playoff outburst of 29 carries, 220 yards, and 4 TDs in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay.

Obviously, a return to San Francisco would mean a new contract would need to be in place to satisfy Mostert.  Maybe the publicness of his request could be a ploy to force the 49ers to step up and offer him what he deems as fair.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady will be 43 years old at the start of the season, and isn’t getting any younger.  His final season with the New England Patriots displayed his need for run support.  Enter Raheem Mostert.  Mostert would instantly be the best RB option for the Bucs as they look to make a run in the NFC South.  

TB12 has a plethora of options already in Tampa Bay.  WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and newly drafted Tyler Johnson are enough to make any defense extremely uncomfortable.  Then add in the three headed TE monster of Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, and Cameron Brate.  Raheem Mostert would bring an intriguing presence to an already potentially dangerous offense.

New York Jets

The J-E-T-S Jets are an interesting pairing.  They signed Le’Veon Bell last season and are trying to become relevant in the AFC East, that has recently lost the aforementioned Tom Brady.  The preseason favorite to win the division are the Buffalo Bills, but a big offensive season by New York could put them in the thick of it.  Acquiring Raheem Mostert could go a long way in that pursuit.  

Also, it could make it easier for the Jets to eventually part with Bell, who is owed $13.5 million in 2021 if carried on the roster.  New York has an out after the 2020 season, with only having to deal with a $4 million cap hit.  Could a reunion with Raheem Mostert be in the cards?

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are only a few years removed from an appearance in the Super Bowl.  Their potent offense could make them a contender sooner rather than later.  Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have been an elite QB/WR combo over their careers together.  With WR Calvin Ridley and newly acquired TE Hayden Hurst (former 1st round pick), Atlanta has the weapons in the passing game.  Pairing Todd Gurley, who is only on a 1-year deal, with Raheem Mostert could be lethal.

Todd Gurley has documented knee issues, so a safety valve like Raheem Mostert would be significant.  The Falcons have shown the ability to run two RBs with efficiency.  Remember Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (Mostert’s teammate in SF)?

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are going to need to rely on their running game this season...poor offensive line and all.  LA is going into the season with veteran QBs Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert, but neither should inspire much confidence, at least early on in the season.

RB Austin Ekeler proved to be a fantasy stud last season, but many people doubt his ability to hold up as a bell cow back.  The Chargers already have Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley, but Raheem Mostert would be an upgrade.  Mostert would provide Los Angeles with a viable option at RB to pair with Ekeler.

You can follow me on Twitter @dynastyprostom

ADP Early Values: NFC South

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ADP Early Values- NFC South

by Matt Kelley

 

ADP. Average. Draft. Position. There’s almost nothing you’ll hear more about in terms of a
fantasy football draft between now and the kickoff of the NFL season. ADP can fluctuate
depending on your league type, scoring and league size. For the sake of this article, we’re going
to assume that the league is a 12 team, PPR, single QB, and a total of 16 roster spots (all ADP
in this article is based on Bestball 10’s 12 player leagues). Pretty standard league, a format
you’ll most likely play in if you’re reading this

.
As always, the goal in a draft is to take someone at an Average Draft Position that is most
beneficial. Let’s say you want Drew Brees as your QB. Nothing wrong with that, but you don’t
need to take him with your first pick. In fact, you probably don’t need to take him with your first
eight picks. If you wait eight picks and miss out on him, good news for you, someone has let
value at another position fall and you’ll still get a good QB. ADP should be used as a guide
throughout your draft to understand where players are typically going, not as a strict source to
say you need to take this player. Depending on what position you draft from you may be able to
wait on a certain player, you may need to reach to get your guy and both of those are okay.
Know your leaguemates if you can. Where they’re from, tendencies, and experience. All of this
can influence ADP.
Now that we’ve breezed by what ADP is, what it means, and how it’s used, let's look at some
fellas in the NFC South that should outperform their ADP.

Atlanta Falcons:

Russell Gage-- I know, how many fantasy relevant wide receivers can the Falcons have? Well,
I’m borderline saying three. We all know about Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley but if you didn’t
watch a lot of Falcons football last year, you may have missed out on Gage. Then again, if you
did, he may have won you a week here and there from the waiver wire. Gage is currently going
at pick 232-- 19th round-- i.e. free unless you’re in a really, really deep league. So while
technically you don’t need to draft Gage by ADP, he might be worth that late round flyer pick.
Mohammud Sanu was dealt to the Patriots and that role has been filled by Gage. From week
eight on, Gage saw at least four targets in every game. In games without Jones or Ridley, Gage
saw double digit targets in two games. In two other games with Jones and Ridley, Gage saw
nine targets. Gage totaled 70 targets from week seven forward. Austin Hooper vacates 97
targets (over 13 games) and I don’t think all of those are going right back to Hurst. If you haven’t
caught on by now, the Falcons throw the ball a lot. Normally you’d hear there’s too many
mouths to feed between Jones, Ridley, Hurst and Todd Gurley but, I think the volume is there
for Gage to have flex appeal on most any given week. He’ll be on the field in three wide receiver
sets so his snap share is capped but, should Julio or Ridley miss time, he’s an easy plug and
play. If you draft him, you can save your FAAB and not worry about fighting for him on the
waiver wire.

Carolina Panthers:

Christian McCaffrey-- ok just kidding. Actual Player: Ian Thomas. As mentioned in my Panthers
preview, Ian Thomas is now the TE in Carolina, no longer behind Greg Olsen. Ian Thomas is
currently going as the 18th TE off the board, pick 143 overall, top of the 12th round. He’s going
nearly 30 picks after Dallas Goedert who is the second TE on his own team. The top three TE in
fantasy seem to be pretty clear cut with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. There’s
some positions where I deviate from top players, TE isn’t one of them, these guys are to me, in
their own class. So if you miss out on these three guys, WAIT. There’s a ton of TE’s left after
those three and it's one of the most difficult positions to lockdown in fantasy, I know. Here’s the
thing though, Thomas walks into a role where the TE saw 82 targets last season in 14 games.
Nearly six targets a game. Carolina is in an entirely new regime with Matt Rhule and company
but, the offense should see an uptick in pace, which should mean more plays, which should
mean more opportunity. 80+ targets is well within the range of outcomes for Thomas. Thomas is
also going after guys like Hayden Hurst (whew, that hype train is starting to go off the rails),
Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, and T.J. Hockenson. Not to get too deep into the woods here
because we could be here all day but Thomas has a very real possibility to outperform all of
these players. Is there risk involved? Yea, we’re talking about a player in the 12th round. I think
Thomas will be worth your pick and worth the wait at the position and finish around TE 14, with
an outside shot to break into the top 12.

New Orleans Saints:

Emmanuel Sanders. I’m going to be real honest... I have buyers remorse from buying into a role
that has been unpredictable for fantasy managers over the years. Teddy Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith
(shudders), and Brandon Coleman. It’s been since 2016 since the WR2 on the Saints had
meaningful value and wasn’t just a shot in the dark (technically Michael Thomas was the two
that year with Brandin Cooks being the one, remember that?). So why is this year different?
Well, few things. The NFC South is absolutely loaded. Every one of those matchups has the
ability to turn into a shootout. Oh by the way, the Saints also face the Raiders, Lions, and the
Chiefs (good luck keeping up). Michael Thomas is largely, and rightfully so, considered the best
WR in the league. Attention will surely be devoted his way giving Sanders both the second best
defender on a team and often, in plus matchups. Emmanuel Sanders walked right into San
Francisco last season and got 97 targets on a team that threw the ball 476 times. The Saints
have been lower passing volume the last couple of years but the Saints should surpass the 500
attempt mark in what could be QB Drew Brees last season. If the Saints throw 530 times,
Emmanuel Sanders would need an 18% target share to see 95 targets. Both seem like fairly
reasonable numbers. Plus, Drew Brees is still hyper efficient. Manny Sanders has an ADP of
113, the middle of ninth round and the 47th WR off the board. While his upside is capped
because, well, Michael Thomas, Sanders can provide you with weekly flex value with occasional
WR2 upside. I’m going back to the well here, give me Manny Sanders!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady. It’s still weird that he isn’t a Patriot right? Gronk too. At this moment, you could say
both guys are a value but, let’s focus on Brady. Brady currently has an ADP of 122, the first pick
of round 10, and the 13th QB off the board. He’s teetering on QB1 territory here, so he’s a value
for now, we’ll have to see what this looks like in August. The Patriots have largely won off of
defense, short passes, featuring random running backs, and ‘Beli-checking’ everyone. At least
we think, right? Brady has actually thrown the ball at least 570 times the last three seasons. In
4pt per passing touchdown leagues, Brady hasn’t hit the 300 fantasy point mark since 2015.
He’s been a steady option, he just hasn’t necessarily provided league winning upside. Grant you
in 2016 he scored 258 points after his "Deflategate" suspension and he could have won folks a
league that year. This year though, Brady departs everything he’s ever known to a team that
has arguably the league's best wide receiver corps. He’s reunited with his buddy Rob
Gronkowski so there’s a familiar safety blanket for Brady assuming Gronk can stay on the field.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are absolute monsters and Brady’s best collective options in
years. Brady has quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last three seasons. As talked
about with the Saints, the Bucs are in this loaded NFC South and are going to have to put up a
lot of points. I expect Brady is currently being drafted at his floor with a ceiling of being in the top
8 fantasy quarterbacks. Think Jameis Winston numbers with a *few* less interceptions.

@ThatMattKelley