Stock Watch

Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 10

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Dynasty Stock Watch Week 10

by Doug Harrelson

 

We have reached the midway point of yet another wild NFL season. We spend all offseason getting excited about the season just for it to fly by in a matter of a few months. The fantasy season is coming near to a close as the playoff picture in all of our leagues becomes more and more clear with each passing week. Teams battling for position for those last few spots in the playoffs and first round byes or just attempting to move assets that won’t help next year as this year seems to have gotten away from them. As sad as it is to finish the season, this part is also the most exciting part of the fantasy season. It’s when all the hard work of scouting, drafting, trading, making waiver claims and setting lineups all comes to the payoff. At this stage of the season, players who are scoring fantasy points reach their peak value during the year. If your season is indeed over, it is a good chance to move some assets for their maximum return. If you are a contender, do not let this scare you. Sometimes an overpay will win you a championship. The expression has always been, win titles, not trades. Let’s dig in and see how these player values have changed.

 

 

Quarterback: Zach Wilson

Chuckin’ bombs and well…. You know the rest. My editors would prefer I don’t finish that statement. This past week was a huge step for Zach Wilson. Against a tough Bills defense he showed some poise, good decision making, and the ability to make plays when he needs to. Sometimes to learn how to be a winner, you have to learn how to not lose first. Seeing him throw the ball away a couple times or create with his legs was such an encouraging sign for a guy that has been overly prone to hero ball leading to turnovers. If the Jets continue winning, he will remain under center. He still has a lot of work to do but this week he looked more like a professional NFL Quarterback than he has at any point of his young career.

 

 

Running Back: Kenneth Walker III

One of the biggest surprises this season has to be the Seattle Seahawks. One of the major concerns for Kenneth Walker III was that game script might end up being an issue for his work load. Not known for pass catching prowess, we expected that his fantasy production may be limited if the Seahawks were not competitive. Not only are they competitive, they are just straight up good. Now he is playing with a lead and being used to put games away and picking up massive fantasy points in the process. He has now moved to around even money to win offensive rookie of the year on most sports books. If you drafted Kenneth Walker in the spring you are feeling great about it now. If you are trying to trade for him right now, get ready to pay an absolute haul.

 

 

Wide Receiver: Terrace Marshall Jr.

After a slow start to the season that had many worried he was a bust, Marshall has been much more involved since the trade of Robbie Anderson. The efficiency hasn’t been great with only 7 catches on 15 targets but the yards per catch have been as those 7 catches have resulted in 140 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers are definitely a team in line for a change in quarterback over the offseason and whether it’s a veteran placeholder or a rookie, it is tough to imagine it not being an improvement for all of the Panthers pass catchers. 

 

 

Tight End: Isaiah Likely

Not the sharpest spike in value but the tight end position is by far the hardest one to do these stock watches for since tight ends not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, tend to be touchdown dependent at best. Isaiah Likely had received a ton of hype this preseason as many thought the Ravens could do like the Patriots did with Hernadez and Gronk and maintain two TE1s on the same team. While that has not come to pass, when Andrews has missed time, the offense still relies on the tight end and he has performed the job well. With Bateman out for the season there is a decent chance he does continue to get targets even after Mark Andrews returns but I think for the most part this is a long term play. 

 

 

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers

Surely this week against the Lions defense that has been ripped up by every offense this season would be the “get right” game the Packers needed for their offense. Unfortunately for Packers fans that would not be the case. The Packers offense has been hard to watch this season. The lack of weapons certainly hasn’t helped but Rodgers has also been playing poorly himself. This year is starting to feel like the passing of the torch from the Rodgers, Brady and Wilson era to the Mahomes, Allen and Burrow era. If you are stuck rolling out Rodgers in your Super Flex leagues, I’m not sure what the answer is at this point. If it didn’t happen this week I’m not sure it is gonna get right this season. I imagine we will have another awkward offseason on what the Packers and Rodgers will do this offseason. Is the Jordan Love era coming soon to a 2023 near you? Could be. We will have to monitor this going forward.

 

Running Back: The Chiefs RBs

The Chiefs offense is one of the best in football and right now the only two players I am starting confidently are Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Any one of these backs are capable of a big game on any week because being on the field in this offense gives you an insane level of touchdown opportunity but trying to guess which one it will be on any given week feels like a fool's errand. They have three guys that are all used in doses and in different roles but the volume is not large enough for any of them to warrant playing them on a weekly basis. They fill the role of desperation flex then crossing your fingers they get the call on whatever clever play design Andy Reid has for the redzone this week. Ranking them at this stage I’m going CEH, Pacheco, then McKinnon but I would move off of any of them pretty easily.

 

Wide Receiver: Devin Duvernay

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

After an explosive start to the season with some big plays and then the injury to Bateman, the thought was that Duvernay would become the next in line. Monday Night Football showed us otherwise however, as even with target hog Mark Andrews out of the lineup, he had only one target in the game. He will have a couple games where he makes big plays because of his speed but it does not look like he is going to be a featured part of the offense at this stage. I might wait and see if I can get one big game with two long touchdowns from him and then flip him for the best offer I can get. 

 

Tight End: Mike Gesicki

After back to back games with 7 targets it appeared that Gesicki was finally going to become a big part in the offense for the Miami Dolphins. In the past two games where the Dolphins offense has been rolling though, he has seen his role become reduced again. The talent is there but this is an offense that does more blocking with tight ends than Gesicki is accustomed to and on the outside he is competing with a track team for targets. The good news is that he will be a free agent in the offseason and has shown some flashes. At this point of the season though he has become difficult to trust.

 

The NFL season continues to chug along and player values continue to bounce up and down. As we reach the playoffs and trade deadlines for fantasy leagues we start to reach a point of tight tension as values will immediately and rapidly change once the battle to win right now goes away. This should be one of the most active periods of trading in your dynasty league. Good luck to all and happy trading!

Dynasty Stock Watch Week 8

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Dynasty Stock Watch Week 8

By Doug Harrelson

Through the first six weeks of the season we did not have a ton of major changes in value to many players. This past week was much different. Three different QBs lost their starting job, we lost a tier 1 RB for the season, had two RBs get traded, two big WRs get injured in the same game and a fantasy relevant TE injured as well. There is a ton to unpack here so let’s dig in!

Stock Up

Quarterback: Sam Ehlinger

The former All-Big 12 quarterback has now been thrust into a starting role with the benching of Matt Ryan. The last drops of Matt Ryan’s are essentially transferred to Sam Ehlinger. He is not a high priority and really this only applies to SuperFlex leagues but he is gonna be given a chance. The Colts offense does have some nice pieces around it in Jonathon Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. that could help him be successful. In general 6th round picks do not end up succeeding long term in the NFL at quarterback. Cases like Tom Brady are rare and very hard to predict. I would likely try to move if he has even one good game for a 2nd and I might even use him to fill a hole on a contender like a D’Onta Foreman for example. 

Running Back: Travis Etienne Jr.

This is the opportunity that Etienne managers were wanting. He was already beginning to get rushing attempts and targets but now with James Robinson heading to the Jets, he could have a massive jump in volume. I do think the Jaguars will use JaMycal Hasty more or maybe even the rookie Snoop Conner, NFL teams do not like giving one guy too much volume knowing what we know about injury risk. That being said, it would not be shocking for him to be getting 20 to 25 touches a game including quality passing down work. If you were in on Etienne to begin with then you are super excited. If you wanted to buy, you likely waited too long and will have to give a haul to acquire. 

Wide Receiver: Parris Campbell

This one makes me extremely nervous because I’ve been burned before after a couple of promising performances by Campbell. The talent has always been there. It has just been staying on the field. Back to back games with double digit targets and touchdowns in each of them certainly raises an eyebrow. There is also the previously mentioned situation with a change at QB but do we even know if it is a downgrade? Matt Ryan hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire this season. The upside here is so high and he may just be available on waivers. Worth a roster spot but I have been burned a few times to many to feel safe buying in now. 

Tight End: Harrison Bryant

After taking the backup role away from Njoku in his rookie season, Harrison Bryant was unable to hold off the athletic tight end from getting the starting job after the departure of Austin Hooper from Cleveland. This week however, Njoku suffered a high ankle sprain that will have him sidelined for a couple of weeks. With the tight end landscape in fantasy what it currently is, he needs to be rostered in 100% of leagues with this news. I unfortunately recently cut him from a team or two as roster spots got tight and it became clear that Njoku was the tight end to roster in Cleveland. I must now awkwardly use FAAB on a guy I cut from my roster about a week ago. 

Stock Down

Quarterback: Mac Jones

The whole situation in New England is starting to look like a mess. Belichick is slowly going from highly regarded genius to old man that is out of touch with modern offense. The benching of Mac Jones and then doubling down stating that was the plan from the beginning is one of the strangest things I’ve witnessed as a fan of the NFL. Whatever is happening, it does not give me encouragement for the future of Mac Jones at this stage. If you roster Mac Jones you are likely stuck in a wait and see mode and not enjoying it at all. Even if he is supposed to be the starter, you likely do not feel comfortable starting him this coming week if being benched after three series is an outcome that could be on the table. 

Running Back: AJ Dillon

This is perhaps more of an issue with the Packers then Dillon at this point but running backs cannot have wasted years with shelf life limited as is. The Packers kinda suck right now. With them playing from behind more it seems to make more sense to have the better pass catcher playing more of the snaps and handling the ball more. The eye test will also tell you that Aaron Jones has looked like the more explosive back. If the Packers had more positive game scripts then perhaps we could see them lean on Dillon more but for now, Aaron Jones is the only Packers RB I can start with reasonable confidence right now. 

Wide Receiver: Rashod Bateman

This season had all the makings for the Rashod Bateman breakout season but we just cannot seem to get there with him. The volume has a clear ceiling on it as the only pass catcher that seems viable right now in Baltimore is Mark Andrews. The talent is there but this offense just operates on a different axis than the rest of the NFL. He does provide this offense with some big play ability and a guy that can be targeted down the field so I see no reason why the Ravens would be willing to make a change in his volume. You can play him as a high upside flex but expect some weeks to be looking at 4 for 42 stat lines.

Tight End: Zach Ertz

First game back with Nuk Hopkins back and Ertz gets his lowest target share since Week 1 of the season. Ertz had been hovering around that TE3 spot as a weekly starter with 51 targets over the first six weeks of the season. The Cardinals will also be getting Robbie Anderson more involved as he gets up to speed on the offense and Hollywood Brown will be coming back at some point. You may still have to start him because of how void the position is for fantasy production but I think my expectations may be taking a bit of a dip. 

Everytime there is a major shake up week like this, it is very important to take a look at your team and decide what the course of action is. Sometimes the correct move is to double down and trade to replace an injured or benched player, sometimes it is best to move off of the pieces only helping us this season and start preparing for 2023. This kind of week can completely alter where you fell on that spectrum so be sure to reevaluate the players on your roster every week to make sure you know if you are a contender or if this isn’t your year. Good luck this week and happy trading!

Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 4

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Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 4

By Doug Harrelson

The NFL season is always such a shock after a long offseason of discussion and analysis. If you told me going into the season that the Jaguars and Eagles would be one of the premier matchups this weekend going into the season I would have laughed at you. Yet here we are with three weeks of the NFL season wrapped up and in the books. The honest self reflection of our dynasty teams happens here. Trading has picked up across leagues as teams try to position themselves for a push at the championship or begin looking at trying again next season. Player values begin to shuffle madly as fewer and fewer weeks are left to try and take home the championship. Let’s dive into what these dynasty player values are looking like.

Stock Down

Justin Fields

This Bears offense is truly hard to watch. This is the type of NFL that your grandparents grew up watching before the passing game explosion of the past 10 years. It feels like the entire developmental cycle for Justin Fields could be jeopardized by this coaching staff. At first we thought the Week 1 game in the weather could have been an outlier but this seems to just be the game plan the Bears want to implement. Even in a negative game script against the Packers the Bears continued to just run the football. I assume at some point the Bears will be playing from behind and Fields will have to throw the ball, hopefully then we get some brighter days.

All of them

The running back position is a tragedy right now in fantasy football. Nobody has been consistent, there is a ton of injury risk at the position, NFL teams continue to use committee approaches. If you are a serious contender, hold your RBs and by all means buy them now while they are cheap. Winning championships is the name of the game. Just understand when you make that move that you may never get any return for this investment when you make this trade. If you do not think you can win a championship now I would advocate selling any RB on your roster. I’ll explain more later on. 

Elijah Moore

This one hurts me on a personal level. I am heavily invested in Elijah Moore in every format of fantasy from best ball to redraft to dynasty. PPR, ½ PPR, non-PPR, you name it. Right now Garrett Wilson is the alpha WR on this Jets offense, Corey Davis is still getting targets, Conklin is off to a good start and they have two different pass catching RBs. I feel like a broken record from what I said a couple weeks ago talking about Wilson but the Jets offense now has a reasonable amount of mouths to feed. Elijah Moore may take the hit because of it. 

Noah Fant

Very easily could have said Cole Kmet here but it would be very similar to the paragraph on Fields. Instead I want to talk about former 1st round pick Noah Fant. The once promising prospect now competes for targets with the likes of Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. He may be the head of the committee but I don’t ever want to be using the word “committee” when I am referencing my tight end I drafted in the late 1st round of rookie drafts in 2019. I would not be surprised if he is on your waiver wire by the offseason if things do not improve for Fant.

Stock Up

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has come out hotter than bacon grease to start the season. The only thing suppressing his value was the potential of the Eagles drafting a QB in 2023. Well if they continue to pile up wins then that will not be part of the conversation and you may have acquired a poor man’s Josh Allen. This Eagles offense has become electric this season but I do want to give a little caution. They have beaten the Lions, Kirk Cousins in primetime, and the Carson Wentz led Commanders. If you roster Hurts you have plenty to be optimistic about, he could be going in the top 5 of Super Flex startups by next spring. 

2023 1sts

I want to turn all my RBs into 2023 picks at this stage unless I am a legitimate contender. As a contender, always be willing to make the move to win a championship. However, the RB market could undergo a massive turnover during this upcoming offseason. Obviously the new blood coming in will have to fit into rankings somewhere but the other thing to consider is that in a deep RB class, a team that already has a talented RB may just draft one to complement the current back. After the NFL draft there will be some good RBs that take massive hits to their value because they are now splitting a backfield. If you are not contending then turning these RBs into capital now can let you buy back into an RB market where many veterans have a suppressed value due to new competition. Either that or you can just draft the backs then. This is a market value move even if you believe many of these guys will actually be fine. 

Chris Olave

13 targets in Week 2 had our curiosity, 9 catches on 13 targets for 147 now has our attention. The top end of this year’s rookie WR class has given us plenty of excitement to start the season. His long term situation at QB may be in flux going forward but that feels like the case for most of these young WRs at this point. A lot of NFL teams cannot say for certain they have their QB in 2023 on their roster. Those teams have their 1sts though so they can go get a QB if they don’t have the answer, the Saints do not. I still love the talent that Olave brings to the table though. 

Jelani Woods

Not somebody you are rolling out to start yet but if you got him with a late dart throw in your rookie draft then you are pleasantly surprised at this stage. With his unbelievable size and athleticism, the red zone should be an area of the field he succeeds at. He had only 16 snaps in the first two games combined and then logged 16 in week 3 and snagged two touchdowns. That should only help his case to get a larger workload on a Colts team desperate for some offensive weapons outside of Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. 

Stock Watch: Devy – Week 2

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Stock Watch: Devy - Week 2

By Tommy Harvey

Stock Up

Raheim Sanders

I have been reserving my opinion about Raheim Sanders until I was able to see him in a full time role. My gosh, he is impressive! I really like what I have seen from him and I can't wait to see more. There is very little doubt in my mind that he will be a top RB in the '24 NFL Draft.

Mohamed Ibrahim

After tearing his achilles last season, Mohamed Ibrahim decided to return to Minnesota for his 6th year of eligibility. Before last season, Ibrahim would have probably been one of the highest drafted RBs if he had entered the NFL Draft. Now. He is trying to prove he still has NFL ability. At 24 years old, Ibrahim is already approaching old age. So now is the time for him to prove he can still play, and so far he is.

Jordan Addison

WR1? Jordan Addison is definitely making his case for it. He was already a great WR, but he seems to be getting better. Addison is explosive and electric with the ball in his hands. He could be on his way to his 2nd consecutive Biletnikoff Award.

Jalen McMillan

Kalen DeBoer has taken his high power offense to Washington this season, and Jalen McMillan is reaping the benefits! QB Michael Penix is living up to what he was expected to do while at Indiana, and McMillan is his numero uno. I expect him to climb up draft boards, whenever he decides to enter his name.

Others on the Rise

Will Levis

Jase McClellan

EJ Smith

Rashee Rice

Dane Key

Stock Down

Anthony Richardson

Poor vision. Poor decision making. Poor Execution. A week after looking like a potential franchise QB, Anthony Richardson fell back to Earth. He looked confused and mostly incapable against Kentucky on Saturday. That type of inconsistency doesn't warrant 1st round hype.

Phil Jurkovec

Not a fan. Never been a fan. He doesn't do anything special and seems like more of a liability to me than anything.

Lew Nichols

I have always been a little torn on Lew Nichols. He gets the ball a ton and has been a very good producer. However, he has not been very good so far to start the season. Is this a case of defenses keying in on him after last season's monster year? If so, how will he be able to respond? That's worth monitoring.

Jermaine Burton

If he can't produce at Alabama, where can he produce? Jermaine Burton was supposed to be the next great WR after transferring in from Georgia, but he has yet to live up to any of the hype. The measurables may be there, but I haven't seen that translate to production on the field.

Others on the Decline

Tyler Buchner

Brennan Armstrong

Tanner McKee

Stock Watch: Devy Week 1

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Stock Watch: Devy Week 1

By Tommy Harvey

Stock Up

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Maye won the QB job during fall camp and has come out ON FIRE! Through two games so far, he has lit up Florida A&M and Appalachian St for 646 yards and 9 TDs. The former 4* prospect has shown elite ability to open the season and his stock is pointed straight up.  After putting eyes on him over the past two weeks, Maye will be moving up in my rankings.  Drake Maye TO THE MOON!!!

Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn

Admittedly, I have never been very high on Tank as an upper echelon draft prospect, but I am beginning to come around on him.  He looks like a completely different RB to me this season.  He has good burst and agility for his size and exhibited very good vision…albeit against inferior competition.  He is still my RB5 in the ‘23 draft class, but he is much closer to RB4 than he is RB6.

Omarrion Hampton/George Pettaway, RB, North Carolina

The two true freshmen at North Carolina have taken over the UNC backfield since British Brooks was lost for the season.  They were both highly recruited, but neither was expected to have an overly-huge role this season.  That all changed in fall camp and they both look like the real deal.

Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona

For those of you who have been slow to jump on the Jacob Cowing hype train…there is still time.  He was great while at UTEP, and he is showing how great he is going to be at Arizona.  The Wildcats are going to be a surprise team in the PAC12, and Cowing is a big reason why.

Dane Key, WR, Kentucky

The true freshman that was supposed to be the guy at UK was Barion Brown.  While Brown is impressive, I’m more keyed in on Dane Key.  Key started alongside Brown and Tayvion Robinson this week and looks like the future in Lexington to me.  Will Levis has tons of weapons to work with.  If he doesn’t succeed, that’s on him.  

George Takacs, TE, Boston College

I’ll tell you…George Takacs snuck up on me a little bit.  I was aware of him while he was at Notre Dame and his subsequent transfer to Boston College.  However, I was not fully aware of his talent.  Obviously, any TE at Notre Dame should be taken seriously (watch out for Eli Raridon and Holden Staes), but Takacs got lost in the shuffle a little bit.  

Others on the Rise

Hunter Dekkers, QB, Iowa St

Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami

Raheim Sanders, RB, Arkansas

Kenny McIntosh, RB, Georgia

Chase Brown, RB, Illinois

Quinshon Judkins, RB, Mississippi

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio St

Kobe Prentice, WR, Alabama

Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

Stock Down

Devin Leary, QB, North Carolina St

Potentially a 1st round draft pick in the ‘23 NFL Draft, Leary was very…meh…this week against East Carolina.  I’ve never been sold on him as a high end prospect, and week 1 did nothing to change my mind.  If anything, he moved down my board.

Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi

After transferring from USC to Ole Miss, Dart was expected to be the next big thing under Lane Kiffin.  However, during camp, he barely held off Luke Altmyer for the QB1 job and did not look good in week 1.  He still has plenty of time, but he has a lot to prove.

Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

Already fairly low on my board (RB30), Devon Achane did nothing against Sam Houston St  to improve his stock in my opinion.  Being a small-ish RB does not bode well for Achane when it comes to being an NFL RB…no matter how fast he is.  Putting mediocre play on film doesn’t do him any favors either.

Ja'Corey Brooks, WR, Alabama

Many speculated Ja’Corey Brooks would take over the WR room in Tuscaloosa this season.  Even with the arrivals of Jermaine Burton and Tyler Harrell, Brooks was expected to take the next step and become the next dominant WR for the Crimson Tide.  That seems to have been overstated, as Brooks was overtaken by Traeshon Holden on the depth chart.  With an overload of talent at Alabama, Brooks may get lost in the crowd.

Julian Fleming, WR, Ohio St

Listed as a starter heading into the season, Fleming did not play against Notre Dame due to injury.  In the meantime…he may have lost his spot to emerging superstar Emeka Egbuka.  Without the opportunity to be on the field, Fleming won’t have much on tape to have substantial enough draft capital to be relevant.  

Others on the Decline

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Cade McNamara, QB, Michigan

Harrison Bailey, QB, UNLV

Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

Logan Diggs, RB, Notre Dame

Gary Bryant Jr., WR, USC

Christian Leary, WR, Alabama