Start/Sit

Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

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Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

 

I'm going to begin by stating that I, Brendon Booth, H A T E the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, I don't say that because I've been a Raiders fan for over 40 years, although I do for that reason, as well. It's simply this: as a fantasy football analyst, I hate the fact that the Chiefs have rostered seven wide receivers and nobody knows what to do with them. I say this as an owner of Kadarius Toney. I say this as an owner of Justyn Ross. I say this as a 30% shareholder of Deneric Prince who was squeezed off of the 53-man roster to make room for KC's 7th WR. And I say this as an NON-owner of Rashee Rice, in spite of the fact that I would like to have him on one or more of my rosters.

Rice was a stud at pass-heavy SMU. He was drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round of the 2023 draft and you would think that draft capital would quickly earn him a heavy role in the Chiefs offense. There is just too much competition in that WR room to get a great feel of how he is going to be deployed. If he is an integral piece, earning a high enough target share from Patrick Mahomes to be relevant in fantasy, then he could be a nice waiver wire pick-up for you, if he's available. This is our dynasty dilemma. Let's dig a little deeper on this rookie, though, and see if we can figure something out together.

As I said, Rice holds 2nd round draft capital. While one of the prime indicators of fantasy success for wide receivers is being drafted in the first round, there are plenty of 2nd rounders that hold significant value. Christian Watson, George Pickens, and the Chiefs' own Skyy Moore were all 2nd rounders in 2022. 2021 saw Elijah and Rondale Moore both go early on Day 2. In 2020, the 2nd round WRs included Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Jr., and personal favorite Van Jefferson. While all of these guys vary in their potential offerings, you can see how 2nd rounders can be viable assets.

On the field, Rice presents some true upside. While his 4.51 combine 40-time isn't ideal, Rice offers elite level explosiveness with a 1.49 10-yard split placing him in the 92nd percentile, and a 41-inch vertical jump, good for a 96th percentile spot. In basketball, they call that "jumping out of the building." His 6'1", 204 lb frame makes him big enough to be a contested catch target and a red-zone threat as he plays even bigger than his stature. Rice is more than capable as a route-runner in short and intermediate situations but is even better on deep throws, and he is good at creating yards after the catch. He also shared college targets with fellow SMU teammates, now in the NFL, Danny Gray of the 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles TE Grant Calcaterra.

Rashee Rice offers the size, skillset, athletic profile, and college pedigree that you want, and the draft capital of at least 6 WRs in the top 48 of dynasty rankings. His current DynastyPros ranking of 53 just screams "SLEEPER."

Did I mention that I hate the Chiefs' WR situation? Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore are poised just under TE Travis Kelce as starting targets for Patrick Mahomes. Justin Watson, Justyn Ross, Richie James, and Rice round out the receiving corps, with Rice listed on the depth chart as the backup Z, or flanker, to Toney. Now, Toney has a pretty sketchy injury history which could lead to the perfect opportunity for Rice to slide into the starting mix, but the Chiefs have stated that Rice, along with Ross will "start out as 'package' players." So IF there's an injury to Toney and Rice graduates to the flanker role, there could be some value there.

Depth chart position isn't the only thing working against Rice. Let's take a second and look at his teammate Skyy Moore and HIS situation as a rookie in Andy Reid's offense. Moore, again, also a 2nd round pick was limited to the point of irrelevance as a rookie. Moore is slightly smaller and a little bit faster than Rice, and is more suited to the Y or slot role, and he earned lower than a 30% target share as a rookie, in 16 games. He had 22 catches for 250 yards, had an average target depth of 7.7 yards, and earned just 5.7% of team air yards. Contrast that with fellow rookie George Pickens who, albeit in a different role, had one-third the drop rate of Moore and almost four times the receptions on three times the targets, an aDOT of 14.7 yards, and 27.4% of team air yards. If the Chiefs believe the best thing for Rice is to slowly acclimate, his only spot in your roster is on the taxi squad.

The final drawback to Rice hasn't anything to do with situation or ability, it's in his attitude. He has been reported as "nonchalant" in his intent and "takes plays off." He also hasn't shown a desire to increase his commitment to detail as a route runner and chooses to "get by" on size and physical abilities rather than technique. Reports are that he ran a very limited route-tree in college and a poor attitude means that he could be in trouble if he is supposed to improve in the NFL. If all Rice wants to do is run downfield and catch jump balls for glory, there is a place for that, but it won't equate to much production.

After investigation, I might be better off, at this point, not owning any shares of Rashee Rice, and you may be, too. That means, however, that his value is at an all-time low. If his usage rate mirrors Skyy Moore's as a rookie, Rice will definitely be worth a stash if you have a taxi squad spot open. His value is that of a handcuff running back or a mid to late 2nd round rookie pick in 2024 or 2025. If you are trading with a Rice owner, don't be afraid to add him to the receiving side in exchange for a 3rd rounder or a Jordan Mason type. If waiting on his potential, which he has plenty of, is good enough for Andy Reid, it should be good enough for us.

 

Start/Sit Week 14

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Start/Sit Week 14

By Tommy Harvey

Early Sunday Afternoon 

Houston @ Dallas

Start: All Cowboys

Sit: All Texans

This should be pretty easy.  Dallas is rolling and Houston is terrible.  Fire up your Cowboys and fade your Texans

New York Jets @ Buffalo

Start: QB Mike White, RB Zonovan Knight, WR Garrett Wilson, TE Tyler Conklin, QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook, WR Stefon Diggs

Sit: RB Michael Carter, RB Devin Singletary, WR Gabriel Davis, TE Dawson Knox

Mike White has been really solid since taking over for Zack Wilson.  The Jets had issues finding the endzone last week against the Vikings, but I think they will have some things straightened out this week in a huge divisional matchup.  Zonovan Knight has taken over the backfield and is a good fantasy option.  Garrett Wilson is an every week start now.  Tyler Conklin only caught 2 passes last week, but saw 7 targets.  He is a viable fantasy TE with White at QB. Michael Carter returns after missing last week, but Knight has been too good for Carter to have a major role.

Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are obvious starts and this feels like the type of game where James Cook and Dawson Knox will be utilized as safety blankets.  With New York’s stout pass defense, I’m sitting Gabriel Davis this week if I can.  There probably won’t be much running room for Devin Singletary either.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Start: RB Nick Chubb, RB Kareem Hunt, TE David Njoku, QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd

Sits: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper (questionable), TE Hayden Hurst (out)

Cleveland is going to have to run the ball effectively to have a chance at winning this game.  Fire up Chubb and Hunt in anticipation of that.  David Njoku is back after missing last week’s game and he should provide Deshaun Watson with a big playmaker.  The obvious every week starts for the Bengals are all in place and Joe Mixon is back from the concussion.  Hayden Hurst is out this week, so I’m expecting an uptick for Tyler Boyd.

Minnesota @ Detroit

Start: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen, TE TJ Hockenson, QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DJ Chark

Sit: WR Jameson Williams

This is going to be a shootout.  The Lions are actually favored in this matchup and are in must-win mode.  The only player I sit here is Jameson Williams…let’s see a role for him before we throw him in the lineup

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Start: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, WR Christian Kirk, WR Marvin Jones Jr., TE Evan Engram, QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR Treylon Burks, TE Chig Okonkwo, TE Austin Hooper

Sit: WR Zay Jones (questionable), WR Robert Woods, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Both of these teams are BAD on offense, but both of their pass defenses are near non-existant.  Trevor Lawrence will rely on his playmakers in the passing game.  Expect for Etienne, Kirk, and Engram to have solid games. Marvin Jones Jr. could be in play this week too if Zay Jones is limited or misses.  

If there was ever a game to feel anywhere near comfortable in starting Ryan Tannehill, it’s this one.  Burks, Okonkwo, and Hooper have become somewhat reliable targets.  Derrick Henry is going to do Derrick Henry things.

Philadelphia @ New York Giants

Start: QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR Devonta Smith, RB Saquan Barkley

Sit: RB Miles Sanders, All Giants not named Saquan Barkley

Philly has been a machine all season long.  Hurts, Brown, and Smith are hitting on all cylinders right now and with New York’s secondary woes, that probably won’t stop this week.  Keep the Eagles’ RBs on your bench if you can afford to.  Their running game has mainly been Hurts.

Saquan Barkley is the only Giant worth a start this week.  He has been good, but the rest of the offense has struggled.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Start: TE Mark Andrews, RB Najee Harris, WR George Pickens, TE Pat Freiermuth

Sit: QB Lamar Jackson (doubtful), QB Tyler Huntley, Ravens RBs, QB Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson

Baltimore is really struggling on offense right now.  Teams are keying in on Mark Andrews because the Ravens have no real threat at WR right now.  Pittsburgh is a top-7 run defense, so Baltimore’s RBs will likely struggle to move the ball.  

Najee Harris has been pretty good lately, running for over 85 yards in 3 of his last 4 games.  George Pickens was vocal after last week about not getting the ball, so I expect him to get more targets this week.  That could cause Diontae Johnson’s target share to decrease as a result.  Pittsburgh will need to find a better balance.

Late Sunday Afternoon 

Kansas City @ Denver

Start: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Isiah Pacheco, RB Jerrick McKinnon, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, TE Travis Kelce, TE Greg Dulcich

Sit: QB Russell Wilson, RB Latavius Murray, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Courtland Sutton

Patrick Mahomes…DUH.  Pacheco and McKinnon have been playing well as of late and with this week’s byes, they should be looked at as startable.  JuJu, MVS, and Kelce are Mahomes’ playmakers and should be started.

Greg Dulcich is the only Bronco worth starting.  Denver’s offense is atrocious and isn’t getting any better any time soon.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Start: QB Tom Brady, RB Rashaad White, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle

Sit: RB Leonard Fournette, TE Cade Otton, TE Cameron Brate, QB Brock Purdy, WR Brandon Aiyuk

This is a tough game to forecast.  Both teams have the ability to score and play good defense.  Both teams also have the ability to completely not show up.  I’d say to go with the usual suspects in this one.  Rashaad White is the better of the RBs in Tampa Bay, so go with him over Fournette.  

Carolina @ Seattle

Start: RB D’Onte Foreman, WR DJ Moore, QB Geno Smith, WR Tyler Lockett, WR DK Metcalf

Sit: RB Kenneth Walker (questionable), RB DeeJay Dallas (questionable), RB Travis Homer

D’Onte Foreman and DJ Moore have been the only bright spots for Carolina this season.  Since trading Christian McCaffrey, they have been really good.  

Geno Smith has been very good in Seattle with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.  The Seahawks are having issues at RB right now, however.  Walker and Dallas are on the bad side of questionable, and with Rashaad Penny already gone, Travis Homer is the likely RB on Sunday.

Sunday Night

Miami @ Los Angeles Chargers

Start: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Jeff Wilson, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Mike Gesicki, QB Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, WR Josh Palmer, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett

Sit:  Nobody…Play them all

Dolphins and Chargers is likely the best game of the weekend.  Chalk full of studs, make sure you don’t overthink this.  Start whoever you have from this matchup.

Monday Night

New England @ Arizona

Start: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Kyler Murray, RB James Conner, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Marquise Brown

Sit: QB Mac Jones, WR Davante Parker, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry

This is going to be just the second time all season for the Cardinals to have Murray, Conner, Hopkins, and Brown together.  I’m thinking a laser show for Arizona at home on Monday.  Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers are the only consistent performers the Patriots have.

Starts and Sits: Week 13

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Starts and Sits: Week 13

By Joe Goodwin

 

 

In an effort to expedite this process for everyone, I will target a receiver, running back, tight end, and QB to start or sit from each team.

Sunday Early Afternoon

Cleveland at Houston

Start: Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Deshaun Watson, Dameon Pierce

Sit: David Njoku, Brandin Cooks, Kyle Allen

The Texans have looked very much like a team that wants the first overall pick in next year’s draft.  Although fantasy owners are growing a little impatient with Dameon Pierce, he’s still a start in this game.  For the Browns, they are a full go in this game.  The Texans give up points to every offense they play.

Denver at Baltimore

Start: Latavius Murray, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews

Sit: Russell Wilson, Cortland Sutton, Greg Dulchich, Kenyan Drake

This game appears to be a low scoring affair.  I don’t see the Broncos passing attack doing much against the Ravens since all three top receivers are trending to a DNP.  I like Latavius Murray as a volume player.  Lamar Jackson and Marc Andrews are elite players and should always be started.

Green Bay at Chicago

Start: Aaron Jones, Justin Fields, David Montgomery

Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney

Aaron Rodgers has not looked great with his thumb injury and also left last week’s game against the Eagles after a hard hit.  If Jaquan Brisker doesn’t play in this game, I ride Christian Watson breaking off another big play.  The Packers will lean on the run game; especially Aaron Jones.  Justin Fields returns to the field for the Bears and will look to get back to what he does best: run.  The Bears will use Montgomery and Fields to wear down the Packers.

Jacksonville at Detroit

Start: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Jamal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff

Sit: Travis Etienne

I love how this game sets up for the Lions.  That “GRIT” that coach Dan Campbell preached in this summer’s “Hard Knocks” has finally showed up.  The Lions are playing hard and with passion.  I am a full start on the Lions this week.  I also love the Jaguars against this Lions defense that has been inconsistent.  Trevor Lawrence looked like he had the breakthrough every quarterback needs to solidify their ability to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.  Doug Pederson is hoping that’s the case too.

NY Jets at Minnesota

Start: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Mike White, James Robinson

Sit: Kirk Cousins, Garrett Wilson

The Jets have been a solid defense all season.  I believe they will “slow down” the Vikings offense, but not completely stop it.  The STARS of the Vikings offense will look the part.  Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson will be factors in fantasy this week.  With a bunch of injuries, James Robinson appears to be lined up for a bunch of touches in the backfield.  Mike White looked awesome last week.  He may not be that effective this week, but he will be worth a superflex start.

Pittsburgh at Atlanta

Start: George Pickens, Najee Harris, Cordarelle Patterson

Sit: Kenny Pickett, Pat Friermuth, Marcus Mariota, Drake London

I see this game focusing on ball control and running the ball.  Harris and Patterson are both stars.  I don’t see the passing games getting too much going in this game, but George Pickens seems to make highlight catches and I anticipate a game-winning touchdown to secure it.

Tennessee at Philadelphia

Start: Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts

Sit: Ryan Tannehill, Robert Woods, Miles Sanders

The Titans always commit to Derrick Henry to win games, and this week is no different.  They will try to run down the Eagles defense similarly to the way the Commanders did.  It will be a close game, the passing game of the Eagles will be too dynamic to contain.  And, just when a defense thinks they have a team under control, Jalen Hurts breaks off a big run and changes the momentum.

Washington at NY Giants

Start: Brian Robinson, Chris Samuel, Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones

Sit: Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin, Darius Slayton

I see the running games having a lot of success in this game.  Brian Robinson always falls forward and he loves to wear a defense down.  Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will run around to soften the Commanders defense.  Those waiting for a big play in this game, may not see one and that’s why those players are a sit for me.

Late Afternoon

Miami at San Francisco

Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, CMC, Deebo Samuel

Sit: Raheem Mostert, Mike Gesicki

Fireworks appear in the night sky for this game.  Both offenses will break off big plays, as each defense will try to limit the run games from the other.  Start all the usual suspects in this game.  

Seattle at the LA Rams

Start: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Tyler Higbee

Sit: John Wolford, Cam Akers, Allen Robinson

Nothing has gone right for the LA Rams this year.  I believe the Seahawks are going to score early and often and all the key players are a start.  I just hope the Rams can score a little bit to keep the starters in the game long enough to pile up the stats.  With all the injuries to the Rams, the offense, under Wolford, will struggle mightily this week.  Higbee may accrue a few stats as he becomes the dump off option for Wolford.

Kansas City at Cincinnati

Start: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Sit: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Isiah Pacheco

It appears the Bengals are getting healthy and could be very dangerous moving forward.  I want to wait on Chase and Mixon to make sure they are ready to contribute.  Burrow will continue to feed Higgins the ball.  The Chiefs will continue to get creative as their offense looks to utilize players in space.  Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are automatic starters as they are both the best at their positions.

LA Chargers at Las Vegas

Start: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams

Sit: Derek Carr

I can see another high-scoring game this week in the Chargers v. Raiders game.  Josh Jacobs absolutely exploded last week.  And since the Chargers have had their issues with stopping the run, this should line up for another big week.  The Chargers, like the Bengals, are getting healthier and will be hard to stop.  

Sunday Night

Indianapolis at Dallas

Start: Jonathan Taylor, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliot, Dalton Schultz

Sit: Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman, Tony Pollard

I am not sure why, but the Cowboys seem focused on giving Elliot the ball; even though Pollard has looked more dynamic.  The passing game has looked very consistent, as Dak looks for CeeDee on most pass plays.  Indianapolis will look to establish Taylor early.  With the front line of the Dallas defense always aggressive, the runs up the middle by Taylor should be available.

Monday Night

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Start: Alvin Kamara, Raschaad White, Chris Godwin, Tom Brady, Mike Evans

Sit: Andy Dalton, Chris Olave

The Saints offense was shut out last week.  While I don’t see a repeat of that performance, I don’t see the Saints exploding either.  Kamara will get plenty of looks as I only see him being effective for the offense.  Tampa Bay will get it going again after a poor, overall effort by the offense last week.  I don’t know why or how, but Brady to Evans hasn’t looked right lately.  I see that getting fixed this week.  White continues to be the strongest play in the backfield for Tampa Bay.

 

Starts and Sits: Week 12

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Starts and Sits: Week 12

By Joe Goodwin

 

 

After 3 pretty entertaining games on Thursday, we have a full slate of games still come.
No teams are on bye, so let’s get to it.

 

 

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (1:00pm)

Start: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Cordarelle Patterson, Marcus Mariota, Drake London
Sit: Taylor Heinicke, Brian Robinson, Jahan Dotson, Tyler Allgeier

Atlanta’s offense is a conundrum. It is evident they want to run the ball. And somehow, in the most Atlanta way, they have a 3 way backfield with Allgeier, Patterson, and Mariota all getting double-digit rushing attempts.. Last week, London saw 3 targets, 1 catch for 2 yards; it just happened to be a touchdown. He has got to get more targets. I’m hoping Arthur Smith reads my column and takes my advice: GET DRAKE THE BALL!
At this moment, it appears that Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are in a timeshare; which is bad news for fantasy players everywhere. Since Gibson is also active in the pass game, I give the nod to him to produce for you this week. I love how Brian Robinson “falls forward,” but if he is only running the ball, he is touchdown dependent. I don’t love those odds. Washington’s pass game is nothing special. Each week, another player gets their ticket punched to be fantasy relevant. Atlanta’s pass defense is one of the worst in the league, so I will endorse the most talented receiver in McLaurin and be happy with WR3 numbers.

 

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00pm)

Start: Lamar Jackson, Marc Andrews, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk
Sit: Kenyan Drake, Gus Edwards, Isiah Likely, Trevor Lawrence

Baltimore is seemingly getting healthier in the backfield, while at the same time, getting more “banged up” with their receivers. Lamar Jackson should win this game with his legs. And with Andrews back in the fold, he returns as the #1, #2, and #3 options for Lamar. The Ravens want to run the ball, but will Drake or Edwards be fantasy relevant? I side with neither at this point. Once that backfield starts to reveal itself, we can make a more astute call on the guy to go with. If I was forced to pick one, I would go with Drake. The Jaguars are built similarly to the Ravens in that they want to run the ball first. I see Etienne getting a lot of work; both on the ground and with screens in the flat. I also envision Chrisitan Kirk catching a few on crossing routes and using those legs to make plays. At some point, Trevor Lawrence may be in Superflex play, but not right now. His propensity to throw interceptions in the red zone has to stop.

 

Chicago Bears at New York Jets (1:00pm)

Start: David Montgomery, Mike White, Michael Carter, Garrett Wilson
Sit: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, James Robinson

All week we have heard Justin Fields is nursing a shoulder injury. STAY AWAY! Most QB’s, as soon as you hear “shoulder”, you immediately search for the backup. The Bears hardly use Fields to throw the ball anyway (lol), but it's going to be one hard tackle, and they sit him. I just don’t like those odds. Instead, I will ride with David Montgomery as a workhorse this week. The Jets made a change at QB after Zach Wilson can’t look his teammates in the eyes and say, “Sorry.” Well, in the NFL, the guys in the locker room are all you have. I think Mike White is a SuperFlex play this week. He likes to be mobile and he may see $$ signs with this opportunity. I like the Jets rallying behind White this week and I see the offense humming. The Bears defense just doesn’t seem to have anything going since they traded away their best defensive players in Quinn and Smith.

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (1:00pm)

Start: Semaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Derrick Henry
Sit: Joe Mixon (injury), Hayden Hurst, Ryan Tannehill, Treylon Burks

Joe Mixon has been ruled out for this game. Last week, Perine took advantage of the opportunity and scored 3 touchdowns. I don’t expect that type of output, but he will have plenty of touches. With Tennessee, they have been susceptible to giving up a lot of yards in the air. That is music to Joe Burrow’s ears. He will throw a lot in this game. I don’t want to pick between receivers, so I am rolling with all three. With that many mouths to feed, I'm going to sit Hayden Hurst this week to see how the targets pan out. If Chase does not start this week, Hurst could be a deep start for those that need one.
I’ve seen a lot of hype for Treylon Burks this week. I am not buying it. The Titans only go when Derrick Henry goes. Right now, he is who you start with the Titans. And move on.

 

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (1:00pm)

Start: Latavius Murray, Cortland Sutton,
Sit: Chase Edmonds, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, DJ Moore, D’Onta Foreman

The Broncos offense has been slow and inconsistent. Latavius Murray is getting the touches in the backfield (bye, bye Melvin Gordon). I can see the Broncos trying to get Chase Edmonds more involved, but I would not start him till we know more. Courtland Sutton is the go-to guy in the air and will continue this week.
After looking over last week’s boxscore, it appears that ZERO players on the Carolina offense are worth starting in fantasy. And I don’t see any reason to think this offense will be able to correct that inefficiency. Stay away.

 

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (1:00pm)

Start: Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill
Sit: Kyle Allen, Brandin Cooks

After last week, I seriously considered Dameon Pierce as a sit. However, after Houston decided to sit Davis Mills, who else do they have??? They will lean on Pierce, so I love the volume. And for some reason, I got a feeling Nico Collins is going to get some chances this week. Game flow will not be in Pierce’s favor, but he is the safest play. Miami is a FULL SEND on all things offense. Let’s hope Houston can score enough to make the 2nd half fantasy viable for the Miami offense.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (1:00pm)

Start: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper
Sit: Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt

Think this backfield will get more interesting when Fournette is healthy. Until then, there is little drama about starting Rachaad White. The dude is talented. The passing game is getting better each week. Roll with both Evans and Godwin this week. I can see both getting TD’s this week. Somehow, Nick Chubb was bottled up last week. I don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. The passing game, at times, looks really good. I endorse Brissett and Cooper this week. I think this game goes for a lot of points.

 

LA Charges at Arizona Cardinals (4:05pm)

Start: Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins
Sit: Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Kyler Murray, Trey McBride,

There might not be a happier QB in the league right now than Justin Herbert. He is getting back his favorite targets. I can see Ekeler getting his normal touches and being effective in this game. The Cardinals defense isn’t scary and Ekeler is the perfect type of player to take advantage. Kyler Murray is rumored to be returning to the field this week. I hate to see mobile quarterbacks with hamstring problems. I would hold off starting Murray if you can. He is most effective when he is scrambling and with a sore hamstring, that takes away his best asset. James Conner continues to find ways into the endzone. Until he gets lost and can't’ find it, keep starting him and roll with those numbers.

 

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (4:05pm)

Start: DaVante Adams, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Sit: Josh Jacbos, Derek Carr, Mack Hollins

Seeing Josh Jacbos pop up on a late week injury report scares me away. I don’t want any running back starting if he’s not 100%. Avoid. The passing game looked better last week. However, I’m not sold. I believe Adams will get his opportunities, but I would stay away from Moreau, Hollins, and company.
Kenneth Walker has been as good as advertised. Walker was the clear #2 behind Breece Hall in rookie drafts, but at the end of the season, I don’t believe it's that clear. Both have been THAT good. The Geno Smith revival tour will continue this week. Roll with both DK and Tyler and enjoy this game. I see this game with a lot of points.

 

LA Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (4:25pm)

Start: Allen Robinson, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
Sit: Cam Akers, Van Jefferson, Isaiah Pacheco

Not sure how much worse it could get for the Rams. The Super Bowl champs have fallen as far as any previous winner can fall. Not a whole lot to get excited about their offense and would look elsewhere for fantasy production. Kansas City begins and ends with Mahomes to Kelce. JuJu is apparently returning this week. I can see starting him if you need him. Otherwise, let him get back into the groove and start him next week.

 

New Orleans at San Francisco (4:25pm)

Start: Alvin Kamara, CMC, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jimmy G
Sit: Andy Dalton, Elijah Mitchell

Andy Dalton looked inspired last week against the Rams. I don’t see that continuing against the 49ers. Alvin Kamara is the fantasy player to start this week. With his work on the ground and in the air, he’s worth the start. Chris Olave has been good. I’m not sure if he's a surefire start this week, he is a definitely a low floor/high ceiling start. San Francisco can be scary on offense. They have a lot of weapons. Does Jimmy G have what it takes to utilize all those weapons? New Orleans will give up yards this week and I see them mainly in the air. Elijah Mitchell is too TD dependent to start with confidence. However, he may benefit from game script if they get out to a big lead.

 

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (8:20pm)

Start: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Devonta Smith, Jalen Hurts
Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Christian Watson, Miles Sanders

Green Bay is going to have to control the ball this week to win. I see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Start both and hope for a slow, methodical game that uses the ground. I don’t like Rodgers and the passing game in this one. I told you here last week to stay away from the tight ends, and that was sound advice. The Eagles looked uninspired last week. I hope they get more dynamic this week and get those receivers open in space. As long as Jalen Hurts is running the ball, he deserves to start.

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (Monday Night Football)

Start: Najee Harris, Pat Friermuth, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan
Sit: Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson

This is a Pittsburgh offense that has not had a lot of bright spots. I am projecting a game flow that sees a lot of run plays; from both sides. Start the running backs. In the end, I see the Colts being able to throw a little and I will ride Pittman and Ryan. The Steelers have not gotten any consistency with the passing game. Does that change this week? I see no indications of that being the case. Pat Friermuth will get enough production to warrant a start, but the receivers have had a hard time getting going.

Turkey Day Start/Sit

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Turkey Day Start/Sit

By Joe Goodwin

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

Start: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Dawson Know, James Cook, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jamaal Williams

Sit: Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary, Jared Goff, DeAndre Swift, Justin Jackson

Generally, this matchup would have BLOWOUT written all over it.  And, it could very well be that.  However, having watched the Lions play on Thanksgiving for as long as I can remember, I find myself always saying, “...you have to be careful, the Lions always play tough on Thanksgiving…”  Stating that, I still believe the Bills will win easily, but I do believe it will be interesting.  When you think of the Bills, everything begins with Josh Allen.  He is the motor that makes this team go.  And he is a must start.  I also believe the auto-correct will be hit and Stefon Diggs will bounce back after last week’s mediocre performance.  The Lions pass defense has been improved lately, but has not been tested.  I just don't see the volume for Gabe Davis to warrant a must start.  Most will play him anyway, but don’t expect a huge game based on the game flow I expect.  I think the Bills will be on cruise control in the 2nd half and won’t need to expend a lot of energy to maintain their lead.  That is why I’m leaning toward James Cook over Devin Singletary..  I believe his increased usage over the last few weeks, coupled with a double-digit lead, will afford Cook a lot of work at the end of the game.  I also expect the emergence of Dawson Know to continue and is a viable TE starter.  For the Lions, I don’t see much good from the offense this week.  Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most talented weapon, and he hasn’t scored a TD since week 2.  He gets a nod to start since he will get volume. If St. Brown gets the nod for the most talented, Jamaal Williams gets the nod for most productive.  With 12 total touchdowns and 5 multi-touchdown games, Jamaal Williams has been an amazing find this year.  He must be started in all formats and hope he continues his productive ways.  DeAndre Swift and Justin Jackson are receiving similar reps at this point and will not be viable unless something happens to Williams.

NY Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Start: Saquon Barkley, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliot

Sit: Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, Michael Gallup

This game would have been interesting if the Giants were healthy.  WanDale Robinson’s injury gives the Giants pass game little else besides Darius Slayton.  The Giants will not be able to scheme around the lack of production in the passing game to trick Dallas and get Slayton open.  The only way the Giants keep this game close is with a strong running game.  Saquon Barkley needs to get a  minimum of 25 touches in this game in order for the Giants to play ball control and keep the Cowboys offense off the field.  Daniel Jones will not have time to exploit his legs and I can see the Cowboys employing a “spy” to keep Jones in the pocket.  The Dallas offense is certainly grateful for health.  Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have demonstrated how powerful the pass game can be with their obvious connection.  I also see Dalton Schultz being effective over the middle.  The two-headed run game of Elliot and Pollard will both be viable starts this week.  Roll out as many Cowboys you can this week, and hope for a close “enough” game in the 2nd half so the starters remain in the game and produce fantasy points.

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings

Start: Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, Justin Jefferson, Adam Theilen

Sit: Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Myers, Jonnu Smith, Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison

On paper, the Vikings give up a lot of fantasy points to opposing skill players.  However, those numbers can be deceiving since many of the Viking’s games are shootouts.  The Patriots are not an offense that can keep up with the Vikings.  New England averages 21 points per game with the 9th lowest touchdowns scored.  Their offense is not built to stay with the Vikings, but Bill Belicheck knows how to win games.  And he will try to do just that with ball control and a strong running game.  Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are viable starters. I don’t see the pass game in a positive way, so I’m a hold on all things passing for the Patriots.

The Vikings have a lot of anger to release after last week’s embarrassing loss to the Cowboys.  This offense just did not show up and it looked bad.  This will not be a game that would excise those demons, but they will do enough to win.  The Patriots will try to take away the Viking’s best weapon, but who is that?  Do they take away Justin Jefferson or Dalvin Cook?  In this game, I think New England is better equipped to stop Dalvin Cook. They will allow Kirk Cousins' attempt to beat them in the air.  Justin Jefferson was bottled up last week, but he is too talented to have that happen two weeks in a row.  New England hasn’t surrendered a single touchdown in 3 weeks.  I don’t see a lot of points in this one, but Justin Jefferson will have something to do with any touchdowns that are scored for the Vikings.  I can also see Adam Theilen hurting the Patriots with a thousand “little cuts.”  Low scoring game, keep your expectations in check.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all those readers out there and may you enjoy a gravy-filled plate of deliciousness both in food and football!

Starts and Sits: Week 11

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Start/Sit Week 11

By Joe Goodwin

 

Teams on Bye: Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay

 

 

 

Chicao Bears at Atlanta Falcons (1:00pm)

Start: Justin Fields, Cole Kmet, David Montgomery, Drake London, Cordarelle Patterson

Sit: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Allgeier, Kyle Pitts

As of now, Justin Fields has turned into Mike Vick/Lamar Jackson and fantasy owners are loving it!  The Bears made a wise decision on allowing Fields to do what he does best: REACT.  The downside to this new offensive philosophy is the pass catchers have not really benefited from this change in concept.  Cole Kmet continues to see red zone opportunities, so he is still worth a start; especially at a position that has few locks.  With Khalil Herbert on IR, David Montogmery should see a ton of work and I”m all in on Montgomery this week.  The Falcons offense has scored 15 and 17 points in the last two weeks.  This offense has been unreliable for fantasy.  Since Drake London seems to be the desired target in the end zone, I would continue to roll with him.  I do see Cordarelle Patterson getting more volume; especially in the pass game/trick play category. I would understand if you wanted to avoid the Falcons offense all together.  They have just not provided any comfort to fantasy managers this year.

 

 

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (1:00pm)

Start: D’Onta Foreman, DJ Moore, Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake, Marc Andrews

Sit: Baker Mayfield, Laviska Shenault, Terrace Marshall, Chubba Hubbard, Isiah Likely, James Proche, Devin Duvernay

With 4 field goals last week, it appears the Panther’s best offensive weapon may just be their kicker.  Jokes aside, if D’Onta Foreman gets consistent volume like he did last week, he is a must start.  However, there is just not any clarity to the passing game and that’s a shame since the Raven’s defense against quarterbacks and receivers can be exploited.  Did I also mention that Baker Mayfield is back under center?  I will ride with DJ Moore since he is the most dynamic and hope he gets enough targets to make that true.  For the Ravens, the run game is the key.  Kenyan Drake appears to be their best option, so he is a start.  Lamar Jackson will do a lot of damage on the ground, but the passing game has just not been effective.  Although I can see a porous Panthers defense allowing the Ravens to move the ball, I am just not confident on who sees the targets.  For that reason, we need to stay away from everyone except Marc Andrews.  Since Andrews is the top playmaker, he should receive a majority of Lamar’s attention on passing routes.

 

 

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (1:00pm)

Start: Nick Chubb, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Josh Allen

Sit: Amari Cooper, Kareem Hunt, Jacoby Brissett/Deshaun Watson, David Njoku, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, Isaiah McKenzie

The Browns may get Watson back this week, but I believe waiting a week on seeing exactly how the Browns offense will look with Deshaun under center is wise.  Nick Chubb has established himself as an elite running back and should always be started.  Kareem Hunt has assumed a secondary role and currently does not warrant a start with his limited touches.  DPJ has been the Browns most reliable pass catcher and should grab a few against a mediocre pass defense.  Even though Josh Allen has been injured, he is still a start as are his favorite targets of Diggs and Davis.  Stefon shined last week.  You also can’t forget, this is essentially a road game for both teams.  I’m not sure how that will impact either team, but needless to say, the Bills definitely DO NOT have the home field advantage they have in Orchard Parks, NY. 

 

 

Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (1:00pm)

Start: Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins

Sit: Taylor Heineicke, Jahan Dotson, Davis Mills, Brandin Cooks.

Although the Commanders had a solid win against the Eagles last week, other than parts of the running game, the offense was not a fantasy juggernaut other than Terry McLaurin.  Brian Robison and Antonio Gibson were used as battering rams against the middle of the Eagles defense.  It worked so well, I see the Commanders using it again.  The news surrounding Brandin Cooks makes me want to stay away.  He’s obviously not happy about his team and situation; those players tend to not do well.  I will continue to ride the Dameon Pierce this week.  He is getting enough volume in the run game and continues to nibble with receptions.  If the Texans decide to unleash Pierce, his ceiling is EXTREMELY HIGH.  I think Davis Mills will be up and down with the Commanders’ front four making things difficult.  Nico Collins continues to be the bright spot for the passing game; continue to ride that wave!

 

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (1:00pm)

Start: Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman

Sit: Miles Sanders, All Eagle TE’s, Alec Pierce, Matt Ryan, Parris Campbell

Last week, the Commanders rolled out a defensive game plan that will be emulated by other teams in hopes of slowing down this Eagles offense.  All things considered, the Eagles gave up 3 turnovers and still had chances to win.  With Dallas Goedert missing time to injury, a barrage of Jack Stoll and Grant Calceterra talk with bounce around as “sleepers.”  Avoid it!  Wait it out to see if one of them established a reliable role within the offense.  With that, ride AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith as the two most targeted pass catchers.  I don’t see Miles Sanders exploding this week.  His usage has been very inconsistent and other coin flips may be a better bet. The Colts will try their best to copy the Commanders running game focus and use JT early and often.  I don’t see Matt Ryan having a huge day in the air; which also means the pass catchers suffer.  Michael Pittman is the most talented and worth the start.

 

 

New York Jets at New England Patriots (1:00pm)

Start: Garrett Wilson, Michael Carter, James Robinson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Myers

Sit: Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne

The Jets are struggling to establish a passing game with Zach Wilson.  With that, Garrett Wilson seems to be the only reliable target.  The running game will be the focus this week.  With that, I would roll out Michael Carter and James Robinson.  If the Jets want to grab the “2nd Best in the Division” title, they need to knock off the Patriots.  The Patriots offense has been effective, to a point, but lacks splash plays.  It's hard to pinpoint any specific passing weapon as a sleeper.  Rhamondre Stevenson has elevated to a top tier running back and should be used in all formats.

 

 

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (1:00pm)

Start: Ben Skworonek, Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave

Sit: John Wolford, Cam Akers/Darrell Henderson/Kyren Williams, Van Jefferson, Andy Dalton

This is a game pitting two teams that are going in the same direction, and that’s not a good thing.  Both offenses have struggled this year.  The Rams are having a hard time to establish the run.  With Cooper Kupp out, that might be safe.  Sean McVay is NOT SAFE.  Ben Skworonek has been a favorite add this week off of waiver wires and received work last week after Kupp left the game.  Tyler Higbee also continues to get volume and is worth a start at tight end.  With all three running backs sharing reps, its impossible to predict which one will splash this weekend.  Avoid them and target other areas.  Alvin Kamara has looked less effective this year and it begs me to wonder if he will ever return to previous form.  I love the trajectory Chris Olave has taken this year and continue to watch his ascension to top tier receiver.

 

 

Detriot Lions at New York Giants (1:00pm)

Start: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jamal Williams, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkely, Darius Slayton

Sit: Jared Goff, DeAndre Swift, WanDale Robinson, Kenny Golladay

Going into this year, DeAndre Swift was a huge upside, late first round draft pick or a dynasty stash that was finally ready to pay off.  Instead, many managers have had to fight the urge to not drop him. He talent has been there, but his durability has not.  He has relinquished the role of top back to Jamal Williams.  The passing game relies on St. Brown to be dynamic and he will continue that trend this week.  The Giants will use thunder and lighting in their run game this week with Barkley and Jones.  Daniel Jones is a threat to run and can break things open with his legs.  I don’t normally like to predict splash plays (since they are very hard to predict), but I will go out on a limb and call one for Darius Slayton this week.  The Lions defense tends to be susceptible to big plays and that’s what Slayton specializes in.

 

 

Raiders at Broncos (4:05pm)

Start: Josh Jacobs, Foster Moreau, Courtland Sutton, Latavius Murray/Melvin Gordon

Sit: Davante Adams, Derek Carr, Mack Hollins, Russell Wilson, 

This is a clash of two offenses that have not looked as predicted at the start of the season.  Both quarterbacks have struggled to find consistency.  I believe both Derek Carr and Russell Wilson are sitting this week.  Instead, lean on the run games with Josh Jacobs and Latavius Murray/Melvin Gordon leading the way.  With Jeudy out again, Courtland Sutton has a chance to have a big game.  Davante Adams injury status makes me want to sit him.  Obviously, if he plays he is a tough sit…monitor carefully.

 

 

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (4:25pm)

Start: CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Dalton Schultz, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook

Sit: Ezekiel Elliot, Tony Pollard, Michael Gallup, Adam Theilen

The Cowboys offense gets back to full health with Zeke returning this week. I actually think this hurts both Zeke and Pollard.  For this week, wait to see how the reps pan out.  Pollard is obviously trending up, but the Cowboys seem fixed on riding with Elliot.  Dak to CeeDee will be stated often and start both if you can.  For the Vikings, I will eat the proverbial “pie” on last week’s call to sit JJ.  If you only watched the last quarter, you must have thought I was crazy to even suggest sitting him.  However, for those that watched all of it, you will notice my game script call was correct.  It was only in the 4th quarter, that Kirk Cousins only looked at JJ and seemed to throw it with abandon and Justin Jefferson delivered!  Ride the Cousins and JJ mixtape tour and reap the benefits.  Dalvin Cook seems to be a freight train that is hard to stop and he will continue running through an aggressive outside blitz scheme of the Cowboys.

 

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25pm)

Start: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Burrow, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Diontae Johnson

Sit: Hayden Hurst, Kenny Pickett, Pat Friermuth

I feel like this should be a low scoring game based on “old-school” results…but it could be a “new-school” shoot out is going to go down.  I am neutral on Joe Mixon this week.  If he gets volume and a little blocking, he could be huge.  However, i’m just not sold on the play calling.  Instead, Joe Burrow will continue to use Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to soften the defense.  For the Steelers, the running game looks better with Harris and Warren both in there.  Plus, Warren as a pass catcher makes defenses play neutral.

 

 

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (8:20pm)

Start: Patrick Mahomes, Kadarius Toney, Isaiah Pacheco, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett

Sit: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, JuJu Smith-Schuster,  Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Isaiah Spiller, Josh Palmer

It doesn’t seem to matter what players are out there with Mahomes, he starts.  The alphabet soup of “sits” speaks volumes to how much this team will be feared if they start to get healthy.  Kadarius Toney should be a fun start.  National TV and Reid loves to make things tricky for opposing defenses.  Pacheco seems to have taken over the reps in the backfield, and I love the matchup this week against the Chargers.  The Chargers are getting healthy with possibly both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen coming back from injury.  With so many players to throw to, I think Justin Herbert spreads the ball around to a lot of receivers.  I know I’ve seen a bunch of Spiller love lately.  I am not drinking that Kool-Aid yet.  Stick with Ekeler and Everett as the offense's two most reliable players this year.

 

 

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Monday Night Football)

Start: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McAffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Deandre Hopkins

Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo, Elijah MItchell, Colt McCoy, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Trey McBride

The 49ers have a ton of weapons are still trying to figure it how to best use them.  CMC and Elijah Mitchell (and sometimes Deebo) are still sharing the backfield.  CMC is the more dynamic player and I suggest riding with him.  Mitchell will be touchdown dependent for a while.  I love this matchup for Aiyuk.  I think he could have a very nice game with the volume he is getting lately.  Where has George Kittle gone?  He is just not seeing volume, but this is a matchup where he should feast on a poor Cardinals defense against tight ends.  With Kyler Murray still not certain to start, McCoy takes the lead again.  Last week, he targeted Moore and Hopkins 27 times, while the rest of the offense saw 8 targets.  And, we see Marquise Brown return this week.  While the passing targets will need to get sorted out, I trust Nuke the most.  Let’s wait to see how the distribution goes between the receivers.  With Zach Ertz out, Trey McBride is in line for more snaps.  I’m just not sure that means more targets.  Again, hold on this passing attack until we see how Kliff Kingsbury employs them.