Sony Michel

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We begin our journey through the AFC with the AFC East. This is a very intriguing division for both real life and for fantasy football. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase’s mannerisms at his introduction press conference from a couple years ago still haunt me; this isn’t the reason why the Jets are a FADE. The reason is because he is the coach. Big Weirdo. Bad Coach. That press conference...I just can’t even...

QB Sam Darnold: QB2, priory FA for injury or matchup dependent bye week replacement, certainly has upside but it is a capped for the incompetence of the HC. He is a franchise QB to build around which I’m confident Joe Douglas will do. Dynasty buy!!

RB Le’Veon Bell: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 4, he’s not the Bell that we feel in love with in Pittsburgh but talent and high volume is rare, intriguing but with caution. Game scripts aren’t likely to be in Bell’s favor. Also the inconvenient truth is in town, the eternal Frank Gore.

WR Jamison Crowder: “Ladder Pick” WR3 (if robust RB with elite TE, ideal WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, he will be a target monster on a team that is likely to be often playing from behind.

Crowder is one of my most drafted players so far this year. Jets WR1 that will get volume with (likely) game script help that is being drafted in the late rounds? YES PLEASE!

WR Breshad Perriman: WR5-6, 1-2% auction, round 14, as the end of your bench WR, Perriman’s late season breakout last year landed him a prime role in this offense. Plenty of upside, not much to lose at cost.

WR Denzel Mims: priority FA, this steal in the 2020 NFL draft could make a great pair with Darnold. He got banged up early in training camp...we apparently just can’t have nice things in 2020. Keep him on your radar!

TE Chris Herndon: TE2 with TE1 upside, $1, round 13. Can I call Chris Herndon the DeVante Parker of TEs? So much upside, so much promise, but little to show for outside of inconsistent flashes of greatness. I’m afraid we will forever say “this is the year” with him as with Parker.

Parker, of course finally broke out last year, same could happen with Herndon! We need him on field though! TE is very deep, so other options remain but certainly juicy upside. Not much to risk if he is your TE2 in a deep league. Could be delicious trade bait!

New England Patriots

The new look Patriots are a NEUTRAL offensive core, with looks of player worth targeting, none of them are worth reaching for. An intriguing offense year in and year out, that remains, but it isn’t business as usual this season. The GOAT is now in Tampa and in comes a former MVP, because of course.

QB Tom Br... Jarrett Sti...Cam Newton: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 12, Cam could be an absolute steal at his ADP. This feels a little bit like Lamar Jackson last year, hopefully Cam is actually healthy now. Plenty of upside, going late…

The NFL is more fun with Cam on the field. Inherent rushing upside could be exponential with some uncertainty in the RB group!

RB James White: RB3 6-7% auction, round 7-8, this zeroRB legend has more upside for PPR, and is seriously an ideal weapon for Cam. With concerns regarding Sony Michel and Lamar Miller, White could become a lot more than just a PPR floor play.

RB Damien Harris: RB4 (robust WR with elite TE), ideal RB5, 2-3% auction, round 12, opportunity in a good offense is a key to great fantasy late round value, you’ll have nothing to lose and everything to gain with Harris. Keep an eye out for Rex Burkehead if any RBs are to miss extended time.

WR Julian Edelman: Low-WR3 (robust RB), ideal WR4, 7-8% auction, round 8, Edelman is another ideal target for Cam. Edelman can help Cam’s passing efficiency. I’m going to target Edelman aggressively. PPR target.

WR N’Keal Harry: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, Harry disappointed as a rookie primarily due to struggling with injuries. He has nowhere to go but up! Could be a steal in the late rounds!

TEs Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene are interesting dynasty prospects. Would it be something if the Patriots trade for disgruntled Cleveland TE David Njoku mid-season…would love to see it!

Miami Dolphins

The ADP of the offensive core is a clear representation of why this offense is a FADE, BUT the Dolphins have interesting upside as they look to build off of the semi-surprising success they showed last season.

QBs - Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tua Tagovailoa - Miami landed Tua without the full blown “tank”, he is an incredibly intriguing prospect to me. He is the QB they will build around. *Russell Wilson vibes*

Fitzpatrick is still the lovable bearded gun-slinger, but undraftable in standard roster 12 team leagues. dId YoU kNoW hE wEnT tO hArVaRd?! *Yawn*

RBs Jordan Howard: Low-RB3, ideal RB4, 5-6%, round 10, he is Rodney Dangerfield, he gets no respect despite consistently producing 1000 yard rushing seasons. Power back who is able to catch, under-utilized in that regard.

RB Matt Breida: RB4, 4-5%, round 10-11, Brieda has the speed and pass catching upside but is a little frustrating to roster with injury concerns. Good player with good opportunity. Not going to reach for him, looking for value!

Howard and Breida compliment each other well and should work well together in the offense. Hard to predict week to week usage but I am targeting them as a value in drafts.

WR DeVante Parker: WR3, 6-7% auction, round 7, the Parker breakout *finally* happened and it was indeed glorious to see him ball out. I’ve been down the road of hoping for upside too many times so I will only be drafting him at a value this year.

WR Preston Williams: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, really exciting rookie season ended abruptly from injury breaking the hearts of the fantasy world. I’d expect a slow start but certainly targeting him as my end of bench WR!

TE Mike Gesicki: “Ladder Pick” Low-TE1, 2-3% auction, round 12, Gesicki was an athletic standout at the combine 2 years ago, the fruit of his athleticism translated on the field last year.

The pass catching TE who is practically a WR has lots of opportunity in an offense that will likely feature have favorable matchups and game scripts. I’m a Pavlovian dog and Gesicki is the bell!

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are known for their passionate fans, but fortunately for the Bills Mafia, the Bills are on the rise! This revamped offensive core is given the NEUTRAL label from me. I’m targeting, but not reaching for, this improved group!

QB Josh Allen: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 10, massive arm and rushing upside makes him a very intriguing player. New weapon, Stefon Diggs should contribute to his passing efficiency increasing. Big upside!

RBs Devin Singletary: (low-RB2, ideal RB3, 11-12% auction, round 6) and Zack Moss (RB4, 4% auction, round 9) are a nice hound duo is an offense that is trending up. Good defensive play is typical so there should be plenty of opportunity for touches.

I see Singletary as more of the volume play, with Moss getting the pass catching and potentially the goal line role. Upside can be capped by Allen rushing ability. Both are very talented, it will be very interesting to see how this situation plays out.

WR Stefon Diggs: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), high WR3, 9-10% auction, round 7, Diggs finds a new home in Buffalo. I think Diggs is a tremendous addition to this offense, he could be an amazing value! Bills paid a big price for him as they build around their franchise QB.

WR John Brown: “Ladder Pick” WR5, 3-4% auction, round 12, the Diggs-Brown duo is an underrated one! Diggs will attract the tougher defensive matchup which will help make life easier on John Brown. Everything to gain and nothing with a player at his value! Perfect sleeper!

WR Cole Beasley: priority FA, PPR target, in the mood of Julian Edelman, this scrappy WR is incredibly underrated and often forgotten about. He should be rostered in all leagues if Diggs or Brown were to miss time!

TE Dawson Knox: Low-TE2, priority FA, TE is so deep this year that he undraftable in standard rule 12 team leagues. This breakout candidate could benefit from Stefon Diggs presence the most! Add him to your watch list!