Ronald Jones

Dynasty Dilemma: Ronald Jones 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Ronald Jones 

By Tim Lazenby

 

Let’s be honest with ourselves here.  This has been the most exciting and earth shattering off season ever.  I can’t recall when the National Football League has seen so many names shifting, let alone franchise faces up and leaving with almost no prediction.  The swirling tornado of trades and signings, while exciting, can be frustrating at the same time.  For some, it is joyous or depressing based on real life favoring a team or player, but for others in dynasty, it can be maddening to assess the value of players whom we either own or want to roster.  Since NFL inception, Ronald Jones has been perplexing, and more than ever, managers want to know what to do.

 

 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers truly believed in the greatness of Ronald Jones.  The running back out of the University of Southern California was simply brilliant.  And even though his receiving game wasn’t on top, his rushing was exceptional; crossing 1500 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground in his senior season.  It all came crashing down his rookie season in the NFL, where in nine games he rushed for a measly 44 yards.  He’s had his moments for sure, but overall, it hasn’t matched his college profile.

 

Lack of Trust

With Doug Martin slowing down, a replacement was inevitable.  In fact, since his rookie season, The Buccaneers hadn’t had much luck on the ground.  Enter the 2018 NFL Draft.  Like any season, with holes to fill, Tampa Bay elected to take the fifth running back off the board.  And while first round pick Vita Vea panned out quite nicely, the second round pick had one of the worst rookie seasons ever.  Since then, he has improved, but hasn’t become that starter they had hoped for.  After only one season as the starter, Tampa Bay brought in Leonard Fournette.  Can Jones ever be a true starter?

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Finally a free agent, and showing promise after sharing the backfield essentially his whole NFL career, the sky was the limit this off season for Ronald Jones.  Well, the sky indeed had a limit as he signed with a team that already had a starter.  While the Chiefs have one of the best running games in the league, so did the Buccaneers.  And while Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn’t have complete trust, he has to be more trusted than the newly signed Jones.  Some are pretty sure they’ve seen the ceiling on Jones, especially in a committee backfield, because after all, we’ve seen it before.

 

 

For some, it seems as though Ronald Jones has been in the NFL for a long time, but even though it will be his fifth season in 2022, he’s still only 24 at the time of my writing.  It is true that his rookie season was historically terrible, but he was so young at the time and has had time to learn and evolve.  It’s important to look at how he improved after the rookie season.  And in his only season as the starter, it was pretty good.

 

The 2020 NFL Season

To truly assess Ronald Jones, we need to look at the 2020 NFL season.  This was the only season, thus far in his professional career, that he was technically a starter.  Despite sharing the backfield with Leonard Fournette even then, his numbers were trustworthy.  In only 14 games, he was just shy of the 1000 yard mark in rushing and still managed to be involved in the passing game.  His eight total touchdowns and 5.1 yards per rush were even more astounding considering the number of weapons he needed to share with.  No disrespect to the Chiefs, but they don’t have the talent of the 2020 Bucs.

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

No, I haven’t gone crazy here.  One of the reasons to sell him is one of the reasons to buy him.  I may be one of the biggest Clyde Edwards-Helaire truthers out there, but even I need to acknowledge the shaky ground he treads on moving forward.  Even though the Chiefs invested a first round pick, the backfield has been given to the likes of Derrick Gore, Darrel Williams and even Jerrick McKinnon last season.  In fact, in the playoffs, Andy Reid trusted Jerrick McKinnon over CEH.  It’s also important to note that even if you don’t start as running back for the Chiefs, you have value.  I think the opportunity is better than ever for Ronald Jones to take the reins.

 

At the beginning of the off season, I was preaching to buy Ronald Jones.  Largely due to the fact that Leonard Fournette was a free agent and Ke’Shawn Vaughn is unproven.  So if Jones resigned and Fournette walked, it was worth the gamble.  There was also the opportunity to sign as a starter with another team.  Now that he has signed in Kansas City, does my opinion change?  I think not.

 

Although there is a crowded backfield, it’s clear, much to my dismay, that the team has no faith in Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the starter.  And, as I mentioned earlier, even if CEH is the starter, not only is he often injured, any running back has value in an Andy Reid system.  Most people also don’t have much faith in Ronald Jones, so the price is right for the taking.  Make the right decision and grab Jones while he’s affordable.

Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

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Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

By Darren Smith

Let’s be honest, the Buccaneers were not on everyone’s short list to win Super Bowl LV, yet Tom Brady still finds a way. The Bucs had an up and down offensive year, but ended up 7th in total offense in the NFL in 2020. Bruce Arians stayed true to his pass heavy attack posting the 2nd most total passing yards in the league with 4626, falling just short of Kansas City.  As usual, the run game struggled with only 1519 total rushing yards - 28th in the NFL. With free agency upon us, there are going to be a lot of moving parts on the Bucs offense which means big implications for Dynasty managers. Here’s a breakdown of each position to help you decide what Tampa Bay skill positions you should Buy, Sell, or Hold.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady - Buy/Hold

Tom Brady is coming back for his 22nd season in the NFL on the last year of his contract with Tampa Bay. The 43 year old finished as QB7 in 2020 and continued his elite numbers with over 4600 passing yards and 40 TDs. There’s not much talk in Dynasty leagues about Brady due to his age, but the value is still there. If you own Tom, you might as well keep him for the 2021 season as you will only return some scraps in a trade. If you are desperate for a QB and have a shot at the championship, go out and buy Tom for a small price as a nice filler for a future QB.

RUNNING BACKS

Leonard Fournette - Hold

Fournette finished as the RB 35 in the 2020 season - but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Leonard missed four games due to injury, and had a split role with Ronald Jones - playing about 50-60% of snaps in the majority of games. When he was active, Fournette still showed explosiveness and a continued ability to break tackles down the field. Even with his limited playing time, he still managed to catch 37 passes out of the backfield giving him some value in PPR leagues. Playoff Lenny made a big splash in the postseason this year showing that he deserved to be on a Super Bowl winning team, but is on the last year of his contract with the Bucs and is now a UFA. Expect him to move on from Tampa Bay and to sign to a new team by the beginning of next season. At 26 years old, he can still be a big fantasy impact on an RB needy organization. Fournette is a firm hold in Dynasty, or a buy if you’re feeling risky.

Ronald Jones - Sell

Let’s start by saying it’s hard to be a RoJo fan. He’s not much of a pass catcher, low utilization in the Red Zone, and has some fumbling issues making him a thorn in Bruce Arians' side. But Jones actually had a good 2020 season. Finishing as the RB20 in PPR leagues, Ronald posted nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 7 TDs. There were some moments however that left a sour taste in the mouths of the managers that started him in Weeks 8 & 9 for example. Rushing only 10 total times over 2 games, Jones scored an average of 3.5 points over these weeks. When RoJo makes a mistake, Arians pulls him and holds that grudge for the remainder of the game. This wild inconsistency makes managers lose confidence in starting him week to week, and don’t expect this to change in the near future. Capitalize on Ronald’s 2020 season and sell him in your Dynasty leagues.

Who would you rather own? Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones? Fantasy Twitter picks RoJo:

Ronald Jones: 65%

Leonard Fournette: 27%

Keyshawn Vaughn: 8%

Honorable Mentions: 

Keyshawn Vaughn - Hold

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Evans - Buy

Mike Evans came off of a stellar 2020 year grabbing the WR11 spot in PPR. Evans to me has always been an underrated elite WR. He averages as the WR12 in the 7 years he has completed in the NFL, and has never had a season below 1000 receiving yards. 2020 brought on one of his best seasons to date with 13 TDs and 1006 yards on 70 receptions. Evans has remained healthy throughout his career showing durability and consistency. Look for Evans to continue at this elite level for a minimum of 4-5 more years, no matter the next QB throwing to him. Signed up through 2023 with the Bucs, he remains in the pass heavy Arians offense. Trade that first round rookie pick and avoid the lottery pick by buying Mike Evans in Dynasty leagues. His current trade value is much lower than the value he brings to your team.

Chris Godwin - Sell

Chris Godwin finished as the WR31 PPR in 2020, but also dealt with injury early on in the season. Injury risk aside, he was consistent when he was on the field, posting an average of 15.6 fantasy points per game from Week 9 on. The Godwin vs Evans debate is an intriguing conversation: 68% of Twitter voters would rather have Chris Godwin on their dynasty teams, as Godwin is the younger player. Believe it or not, Godwin is only 2 years younger than Evans (25 vs 27), so there isn’t much of an age gap as people may think.Godwin is also a UFA this season. Chris has publicly addressed that he is willing to play on the franchise tag to stay in Tampa Bay, but this means only one guaranteed season on one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL. Pending on the organization's decision, Godwin could end up in a much less favorable situation than he’s in now. The Bucs clearly aren’t ready to blow the bag on a big time contract. The talent is there for Chris, but it’s not certain that his situation is going to get any better than staying in Tampa Bay. Sell Godwin at his peak value now - especially if you can acquire Evans plus some rookie draft picks.

Who would you rather own? Chris Godwin or Mike Evans? Fantasy Twitter picks Godwin:

Chris Godwin: 68%

Mike Evans: 31%

Antonio Brown: 1%

Honorable Mentions: 

Antonio Brown - Hold

Scott Miller - Buy 

Tyler Johnson - Buy

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski - Hold/Buy

Gronk was a pleasant surprise in the 2020 season. No one knew what to expect with Gronk returning to the NFL with the greatest QB of all time, but it went just about as well as it could. The 31 year old was TE10 on the year posting 623 yards and 7 TDs. Gronk is still thinking about his future in the NFL, but if he decides to return in 2021, it will be for the Buccaneers. If he’s on your Dynasty team, he’s worth a stash next year as a Red Zone threat, especially in 2 TE leagues. With the tight end market so scarce, Rob may even be worth sending out an offer, as you can get him for dirt cheap. Hold if you have him, and possibly send a late 3rd/early 4th round rookie pick to buy if you’re feeling a little adventurous. 

OJ Howard - Buy

 

In the event that Gronk doesn’t return, OJ Howard may be worth taking a look at in Dynasty leagues. At only 26 years old, Howard hits free agency with a comeback on his mind. Injured for the majority of 2020, OJ only played 4 games. However, he showed flashes of his true self early on in the season, scoring 2 touchdowns and averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game. Most managers forget about him in Dynasty, so throw out a cheap offer for him in deeper TE leagues and see what comes back. A fresh start for OJ Howard could mean big value to come if he lands a starting role, making him a buy.

Who would you rather own? Rob Gronkowski or OJ Howard? Fantasy Twitter picks Howard:

OJ Howard: 61%

Rob Gronkowski: 30%

Cameron Brate: 9%

Honorable Mentions: Cameron Brate - Hold

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang and comment your thoughts.

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

Ahoy, Lenny!

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Ahoy, Lenny!

By Tommy Harvey

Leonard Fournette is headed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers....arrrrgggghhhh!  I don't know if he could be going to a more confusing backfield right now.  The deal on the surface looks like it could mean he will be the lead back.  However, if you dive deeper and have paid attention to what has been said, Ronald Jones could be in line for a good bit of work as well.

A lot has been made of videos that surfaced of Ronald Jones dropping passes recently in camp.  If you have read what has been said, HC Bruce Arians has been very complimentary of Jones.  Was the praise just coach speak, while trying to bring in Fournette behind the scenes?  Probably...

Surely, Fournette could have signed elsewhere if he wasn't going to come in and be the RB1 from the get-go.  It had been reported New England was in negotiations with the former Jaguar RB.  Fournette, although a headache at times, has been a highly productive RB.  In 2019, he finished as the overall RB6 in PPR leagues, as he ran for over 1,150 yards with 76 receptions.

I would assume he will come in and be the Week 1 starter, as Tom Brady may have had some influence in the signing if he didn't like what he saw out of Jones.  In a season that was supposed to be the season Ronald Jones broke out, it looks like that plan has probably been shelved for now.  While I don't foresee Fournette having an 1,100 yard season...or even 70+ receptions...I do see him being the main RB in an offense that will put up MASSIVE numbers.  He should be a high to mid range RB2.  Target him as such.