Quarterbacks

Dynasty League Deep Sleepers: Quarterback

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Dynasty League Deep Sleepers: Quarterback

By Joe Goodwin

 

 

Last week saw a number of backup quarterbacks at the beginning of the season start NFL games. Taylor Heinicke, Sam Ehlinger, PJ Walker, Malik Willis, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kenny Pickett all took the helm in week 8. That is an amazing number of players at THE key position in football getting the start under center The point is: QB depth in Dynasty leagues is essential to long term success. Your dynasty team should have plenty of bench spots to keep a long-term project. Will this project pay dividends? Maybe yes, Maybe no. However, a long time ago, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson would have been examples of a QB stash that now seems crazy to think otherwise. Even Justin Herbert out of college was not even considered a 1st round rookie pick in dynasty leagues. What’s the point? Any manager that looks to the future, will not be surprised by it.

 

Here is a list of players and my reasoning for QB stashes that could be worth the wait:

 

Gardner Minshew

The primary backup to Jalen Hurts has already seen some “mop-up” time in Eagles’ blowouts. Gardner Minshew has started 28 games at quarterback in his career and is regarded as a top tier back up. It's only a matter of time until a team is looking for a bridge quarterback and makes Howie Roseman an offer he can’t refuse; maybe a 6th round pick. With Gardner as your stash, you have a high ceiling bench player once the opportunity arises. He has a 63% completion rate with 41 career touchdown passes. Minshew may not be a long term solution for your fantasy team, but could provide solid depth during bye weeks or an emergency start due to injury if he has the chance to start. He is worth the roster spot.

 

 

Kyle Trask

It doesn’t take a fantasy football savant to notice this is not the year anyone expected to see from Tom Brady. Trask is NOT the primary backup to Tom Brady; that’s Blaine Gabbert. However, that makes Kyle Trask easier to get if he’s already rostered. Kyle has never taken a regular season snap as QB1 in Tampa, but that time may come quicker than one thinks. If, and when, the team is ready to move on from Brady, Trask will get the first chance to take the helm. Make the small investment now, and hope his team will shine sooner rather than later.

 

 

Bryce Perkins

Not familiar with the name? Good, either will many in your league. Perkins is a true dual-threat QB that is hiding on the Rams depth chart. He threw for over 6,000 yards in 2 years at UVA while amassing 47 passing touchdowns. He also ran for over 1,600 yards in that time with 20 rushing touchdowns. I will admit this is a deep cut, but he’s cut in a similar mold of Jalen Hurts and that’s a lottery ticket worth the risk.

 

 

Cooper Rush

Rostering Cooper Rush now is predicated on him finding a new home. He showed well in replacing Dak Prescott at the beginning of the season. However, he didn't overwhelm the league either. He is another example of a bridge QB; similar to Matt Schaub or Matt Flynn. In his stint replacing Prescott, Rush had over 1,000 yards passing with a QB rating over 80.0. Dallas will find it hard to find a better QB2, but if a team makes the right offer, Dallas will be hard-pressed to not trade him. He’s worth the stash now in the hopes he is traded to a team that needs a short-term starter. He’s another player, like Gardner Minshew, that can perform with the opportunity to play. Don’t be too late waiting for the role to already be established.

 

 

Desmond Ridder

I wrote an article on the Falcons during the preseason comparing Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder(https://dynastyprosfootball.com/game-of-thrones-atlanta-falcons/). And, at this point, that article has been right on the button. Mariota has played well enough to be the QB1 in Atlanta. And the Falcons are leading the NFC South. So, a QB change is not on the horizon. That bodes well for Ridder. If the Falcons continue to play just well enough to be in contention, Atlanta will not be in a position to draft one of the top tier QBs entering the draft in 2023. That’s where Ridder benefits. At some point, the Falcons will have to find a long term solution at QB and Ridder may (or may not) be that answer. Ridder showed glimpses during preseason that may warrant the Falcons giving him a true opportunity at the QB1 spot. If he is already on another roster, make a subtle trade offer to see how much the other manager wants to hold on to him. I would start with a 4th round rookie pick and go from there.

 

 

Nick Mullens

(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Mullens is comparable to Rush and Minshew. They are career backups that had opportunities to play and had some positive results. Being the primary backup to Kirk Cousins, and access to weapons like Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson, Mullens will prove valuable if given the chance to start. The Vikings are a good team with deep playoff aspirations. As a former fill-in, Mullens has over 26 touchdown passes with over 4,800 passing yards. He has proven as a solid #2 and is a great “deep” insurance policy on dynasty teams that don’t have a lot of depth at QB. This is especially true for any manager that has Kirk Cousins as a primary QB player.

 

 

Mike White

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Mike White was pushed aside at the beginning of this year as the Jets added Joe Flacco to be the starter during Zach Wilson’s injury time. However, if you haven’t noticed (i will for you), Mike White is the primary backup now that Zach Wilson is back under center. In fill in time last year, White completed 67% of his passes for 953 yards. Although he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, he was working with a Jets team that was not very good. The team is better this year, and if the opportunity presents itself, White may prove to be a valuable low end starter in super flex leagues.

These takes are all predicated on something “not so good” happening to the starter or a change in team occurs. I am not advising to roster these players over players that currently start. Instead, in deep dynasty leagues with a plethora of bench spots, these players may prove useful if needed. Last year, I added PJ Walker and stashed him. Now, I have a low end starter on a team that didn’t require resources to get him. Dynasty football is a “long” game and the teams that focus on this year alone will be certain to struggle in the future.

Three’s Company? 

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Three's Company? 

By Joe Goodwin

At this point in the fantasy football cycle, you are probably being overloaded with the amount of information that is available to you.  One article claims a player is a “league winner,” while another puts that same players on the “Do Not Draft” list.

Needless to say, conflicting information can be troublesome for most fantasy managers.

A fantasy point that always gives me pause is the idea that an offense can have multiple high-end fantasy producers all on the same field.

I looked into that very premise to determine if that is true or not.

Last year, I found 2 examples of a fantasy explosion (3 receivers in the top 36 and a RB in the top 24) from one team:

Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR5, 305 pts), Tee Higgins (WR24, 219 pts), Tyler Boyd (WR31, 183 pts) and Joe Mixon (RB4, 288 pts).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR9, 262 pts), Chris Godwin (WR15, 242 pts), Rob Gronkowski (TE7, 171 pts) and Leonard Fournette (RB6, 343 pts).

I should also mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers were very close to qualifying for this study:

Diontae Johnson (WR8, 274 pts), Chase Claypool (WR37), Pat Friermuth (TE13) and Najee Harris (RB3, 300 points).

So, with these examples, can we predict whether these teams can produce in that same manner:

Las Vegas: DaVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Najee Harris

Philadelphia: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Know, Devin Singletary

Denver: Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Javonte Williams

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook

Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon

With the 2 teams that accomplished that feat last year, both were led by top tier quarterbacks Tom Brady (QB3) and Joe Burrow (QB8) with offenses that finished 2nd and 7th respectively in total points and 1st and 7th in passing yards.  And, each team had a run game that was overall in the bottom 10 of the league (Tampa Bay was 25th and Cincinnati was 22nd)

So, with all that being said, what key elements are we looking for in order for a team to support 3 top 36 receivers?

Key Point 1: A team with the requisite 3 receivers to achieve Top 36 WR or Top 12 TE

Key Point 2: Top Tier QB 

Key Point 3: Overall Offenses that finish in the top ten in total points and passing yards

Key Point 4: Run Offense is bottom 10 of the league

As we analyze each team and how they relate to each key point, let’s see where we stand:

Oakland: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{I’m sure some would argue that Carr is a top tier qb, but are you drafting him in your top 8 qb’s?}

Pittsburgh: Point 1, Point 4

{Pitt has the weakest qb and middle of the pack offense}

Philadelphia: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{Jalen Hurts will have to prove he can be top tier first}

Buffalo: Point 1, Point 2, Point 3

{Run game is strong on Buffalo}

Denver: Point 1, Point 2

{Hard to project with the massive upgrade in QB in the offseason on where the offense will finish; Seattle was middle tier in offense stats}

Minnesota: Point 1

{This is not a dart at Cousins, more like a “wait and see” approach with the new offense}

Cincinnati: Point 1, 2, 3, 4

{Let’s hope the improved offensive line helps continue to the trend}

Based on this data, the four teams most likely to support 3 top 36 receivers are: Cincinnati, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo.  

So, if you try to convince yourself to draft Jeudy from Denver or Claypool from Pittsburgh later in your draft in the hopes they can pay off….chances are more likely they will not.

And, if you want to wait a few rounds and grab a receiver like DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd after the 7th round, chances are good they may hit as a top 36 receiver.

Remember the numbers don’t lie!!  Only 2 NFL teams supported multiple fantasy starters in one lineup last year and most likely, that trend will continue again this year.

 

As always, “Come and knock on my door” if you need any fantasy help @JGoody77 on Twitter

 

Veterans and Dynasty Value

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Veterans and Dynasty Value

By Tim Lazenby

It’s impossible to overlook the effect of Father Time in fantasy football when it comes to dynasty format.  But just because a player isn’t as young as he once was, it doesn’t mean his value is nil.  I’m going to give you three players at each skilled position to target knowing full well my projected shelf life of elite play.  Let’s begin with the tight ends.

Tight Ends

The fall off age for a player depends on position and at tight end, the magical age is 28.  Although there are rarities, statistics show that after the age of 27, you see less tight ends dominating and the drop off in contribution beginning.  Let me give you one veteran to target for this year, one who will be good for a couple seasons and one who will be good for three or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Gerald Everett (28) is a good target for this category.  While he’s not in the upper echelon of tight ends, his value should go way up now that he’s with Justin Herbert and Co.  I do fear that he’s a temporary fix, but when he is priced at TE21 (166 overall), the price doesn’t get much better.  If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they love to throw.  And this should be exploited even more as this will be the best offensive tight end he’s played with.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Zach Ertz (31) is a great target if you’re looking for a guy with a couple years of solid fantasy play.  It may surprise some to know that after the trade to Arizona, Zach Ertz was the TE6 on the season.  And while Marquise Brown hurts his value, I don’t think Ertz will subside greatly.  It’s also going to take a couple seasons for Trey McBride to claw his way to the top of the depth chart, but even when he does, Ertz has shown he can share a field with a partner.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Call me crazy, but I think we still have tons of time left to appreciate the legend of Travis Kelce (32).  A unicorn in his own rite, Kelce has been nothing but dominant since day one.  With the receiving room having been overhauled in Kansas City, there is no doubt in my mind that Kelce will be targeted more now than ever.  Lastly, for those scared off by his age, legends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have both played over twice the amount of career games as Kelce.  While that may not be a guarantee of how long Kelce will play, he’s certainly got lots of time left.

Wide Receiver

For me, the magical age for fall off when it comes to wide receiver is 29.  There is a rapid decline once you cross over into the 30s, but that doesn’t mean that all players are dead in the water after their twenties.  Let’s throw three wide receivers, at least 29 years old, at you who are still elite in dynasty.

Very Relevant For Next Year

There’s a lot that makes fantasy managers nervous about Robert Woods (30) moving forward.  Just coming off injury and moving to a new system can be nerve wracking, but the price is right.  Despite competition in Treylon Burks, that’s where the list ends.  It also helps Woods’ case that stud Derrick Henry is coming off an injury himself, so they can’t pound the rock as hard as they want.  At WR38 (101 overall), his price has never been this good since his days in Buffalo.  Treylon will take over, make no mistake, but this season Robert Woods has a real shot at WR2 status.

He’s Got a Couple Years

With my second Charger in this article, we can’t overlook the glaring value of Keenan Allen (30).  Since 2018, Keenan Allen is the only wide receiver to get over 130 targets every season.  The early years with injuries haven’t been forgotten for some, so take advantage.  And make no mistake, this receiver room belongs to Keenan Allen, not Mike Williams.  He’s also being drafted in the 30s in some circumstances.  Go after a manager who only sees him as a one year player and take Allen all the way to the championship.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Davante Adams (29) is the only 99 wide receiver on Madden.  And even though many people disagree with many ratings, most agree on this one.  That being said, some are concerned now that Davante is going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.  I’m going to go on record and state that talent is talent.  Adams is special and he’ll shine no matter where he goes.  It also doesn’t hurt that I think Carr is underrated.  I can’t see a world in which Davante Adams isn’t elite for at least another 3-5 years and hopefully you can’t either.

Running Backs

Everyone knows that the shelf life is the shortest with the running back.  Being the most physical position in the league, it makes complete sense.  It’s also the hardest to find true value.  Once a running back hits 26 years old, I begin to get nervous.  Here is a list of three running backs, 27 or older, to consider under the previous noted criteria.

Very Relevant for Next Year

The list of running backs is more sparse than other positions.  Ezekiel Elliott (27) is a name this season, in dynasty, that many managers are treating like a ghost.  It makes sense as 2021 was his worst year to date, but let’s not forget the situation the man is in.  It is true that Tony Pollard is chomping at the bit, but the reality is that the Cowboys are far too financially invested in Zeke to not showcase him.  He still also plays behind arguably the best O-line in the league and the passing options have decreased from last year.  Zeke has never been cheaper.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Going back to back and featuring Titans, I’m going with Derrick Henry (28) here.  I can’t recall a more dominant runner in recent history than Henry.  A giant among mortals, Henry broke many hearts as he went down with injury last season.  And while I don’t think he’ll be up to speed immediately, it won’t take forever.  The cupboards are also not overflowing with running backs to take a stab at his crown.  In redraft, he’s still quite expensive, but in dynasty he’s ripe for the picking.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

I’d be lying if I thought any running back over 26 could be a surefire bet to fit this category, but if you’re forcing my hand, I’m going right back to the Chargers in Austin Ekeler (27).  I know I’m super pro-Chargers here, but there is good reason to be.  If the Chargers hadn’t drafted Isaiah Spiller, I’d be more nervous, but this gives shelf life to Ekeler.  Now he doesn’t have to be on the field all the time and he can be used in far less physical situations.  Much like Henry, in redraft the value is high, but in dynasty, you can still make a profit.

Quarterbacks

Lastly, we move on to the most critical role in all of sports.  In fantasy, especially if you are playing 2 QB or superflex, hitting the right value on quarterbacks is essential.  The longevity of a quarterback is the best of the bunch, but that also makes it harder to take advantage of a good value.  Once a quarterback hits 33 years old, I get leery.  But, have no fear, as I am going to give you three quarterbacks to go for in dynasty who are 34 year old or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Well, this category was much easier than the others as there are only four starting quarterbacks that are 34 or older.  The answer to this first one is quite simple.  Although Tom Brady is one I’d take for sure for next year’s value, I’m going Aaron Rodgers (38) because I want a chance at more years.  Though Rodgers is signed for multiple years, I never quite trust him.  And for that reason, if you’re only focused on winning the championship, he’s a great target.   With many worried managers just wanting him off their plate and willing to sacrifice the value, the time is now to go for A-Rod in dynasty.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Although for many young fans, Matt Ryan (37) is all they’ve ever known of Atlanta, he’s getting a fresh start in Indianapolis.  And while he isn’t the MVP he once was, there’s still plenty left in the tank.  With no ready option for the Colts under center, Matt Ryan will have a few years to show off his skills.  And as the QB21 (151 overall) in drafts, there are plenty of managers not seeing his full value.  He’s one of the few late quarterbacks with the upside of a QB1.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

It should come to no surprise that Matthew Stafford (34) will be the winner of this category.  Even if he wasn’t elite, which he is, his Super Bowl win will give him ample time to stick around in one of the league’s best offenses for years to come.  Like previous entries in this article, the value may not be there in redraft, but in dynasty, Matthew Stafford may have the biggest value and upside of any quarterback in the league.

Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

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Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

By Tim Lazenby

 

The consensus among experts is that Josh Allen is the QB1 in dynasty.  This statement is definitely not unfounded, as we’ll discuss.  When looking at contenders for the crown of top quarterback in dynasty, there are a few.  Many would put Patrick Mahomes right at the top.  Other names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and even Joe Burrow have popped up.  But, I think the biggest contender is none other than Justin Herbert.

Since Justin Herbert only has two seasons in the National Football League, let’s take a moment to break down the first two seasons for Justin Herbert and his top competition, Josh Allen, as passers.  

 

Passing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2018 22 11 5-6-0 320 169 2074 10 12 3.1 52.8 89 75 6.5 12.3 172.8 67.9 28
2019 23 16 10-6-0 461 271 3089 20 9 4.3 58.8 146 53 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 38

 

 

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2020 22 15 6-9-0 595 396 4336 31 10 5.2 66.6 216 72 7.3 10.9 289.1 98.3 32
2021 23 17 9-8-0 672 443 5014 38 15 5.7 65.9 256 72 7.5 11.3 294.9 97.7 31

 

When it comes to prowess in the passing game, although Allen has greatly improved, he wasn’t even close to the same level in his first two seasons as Justin Herbert was in his.  Even now, Allen’s passing game, whether it be from the system or his talent itself, doesn’t approach the numbers that Justin Herbert has put out.  I’d still take Josh Allen over the vast majority of the league as a passer, but he’s quite a distance away from Herbert, at least by the numbers.

Let’s not forget about the running game for both Allen and Herbert though.  We all know that a rushing quarterback is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.  It’s a talent that can’t be ignored when considering dynasty QB1 status.  Here are the stats for each as a rookie and sophomore.

 

Rushing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year

 Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2018 22 11 89 631 8 41 45 7.1 52.6 7.4 280 6
2019 23 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 319 6.8 243 10

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2020 22 15 55 234 5 20 31 4.3 15.6 3.7 57 5
2021 23 17 63 302 3 28 36 4.8 17.8 3.7 48 1

 

 

When it comes to the running game, it’s not even close.  Josh Allen is far superior in this regard.  While he’s not at the level of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or even Jalen Hurts, he rules supreme among the duo we’re talking about and is still a top option in the entire NFL in this regard.  It is important to note, however, that the rushing game of Justin Herbert is underrated and respectable: quite in the realm of what you look for in that elite quarterback when paired with their passing game.

Conclusion

It’s a tale of two very different entrances into the NFL.  Josh Allen’s beginning was very difficult.  With Kelvin Benjamin, as a journeyman at that point, and an aging LeSean McCoy as the best options, you can see why he struggled out of the gate.  The defense also ranked in the middle of the pack, often leaving Allen without his best shot at success.  His continued improvement is fantastic, and even though I’m only highlighting his first two seasons, I don’t need to tell you how good he’s become.  The current team surrounding him is also very good.  The Buffalo Bills don’t have many holes and they should win their division; clearing the way for another year of fantasy success for Josh Allen.  I’m sure we can expect similar production from Allen, but that’s the problem.  I don’t see things getting any better.

For the first time in 16 years, someone other than Philip Rivers was QB for the Chargers and Herbert was better than most predicted, even behind the league’s worst offensive line.  In his first two seasons, Herbert was sensational and he’s only gotten better.  He didn’t need a couple years to develop.  He’s simply always been amazing and he’s only getting better.  Coupled with the unbelievable off season that Tom Telesco has given to the Chargers, I can’t see Herbert’s stock doing anything else but skyrocket.  The offensive weapons have quietly improved, but the defense is the most helpful part to aid in Herbert’s continued success.  If the Chargers don’t finish as the league’s best defense it’d be surprising, but even if they don’t, they are light years better.  This will keep Herbert on the field more, hence scoring more fantasy points than ever before.

In today’s NFL, dual threat quarterbacks are all the rage, but some are just so good that they don’t need to rely on it.  Take the discount now and bank on Justin Herbert as dynasty’s QB1 moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

by Tim Lazenby

 

The National Football League is one filled with a rich history.  When a feat is accomplished it is unlikely that it hasn’t been done already.  The NFL is actually over 100 years old and the merger that caused the league as we know it today was over half a century ago.  Needless to say, and understating the obvious, records aren’t easily broken and true history isn’t likely to be carved anymore.  But, it does happen.  One of these trailblazers still here is none other than Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

 

The Reason to Sell

Before last season, I don’t think there was any reason to have such a debate.  Lamar Jackson showed nothing but improvement and prowess; exactly the type of player you want leading your dynasty to the ultimate fantasy prize.  Questions of looming health and long term value have begun creeping in and it’s time to address the question of Lamar Jackson’s value.  Just what do we do with the quarterback from Louisville?

 

Poor Protection

Despite having many talents, we all know the greatest strength to Lamar Jackson’s game is his ability to run the ball.  The opposing team needs to change it’s whole defensive scheme to account for that one unicorn in Baltimore.  The sad truth is that a runner can only be as effective as his protection.  Defenses have not only brought more pressure each and every year Lamar has played, he’s payed the price in a higher sack rate as well.  Last season he was sacked an extra 40% more than he was in his MVP season.  His ineffective offensive line also forces his hand more.  Decisions to throw or not turn into a hurried run play due to lack of time and blocking.  How much longer can Lamar Jackson take the pressure until it plummets his fantasy football value? 

 

Lack of Receivers

Not every team in the NFL has the same talents and depth at positions as others.  Each and every team, no matter how strong, has weaknesses and one of the glaring ones in Baltimore is its lack of receiving depth.  Without a plethora of hands to throw to, Lamar is forced to funnel too many targets at Andrews and rush the ball more than he should.  Even back to college, he was a monster running the ball, but he was a very underrated passer.  The depth at Louisville didn’t consist of one target hog, making Lamar much more of a swiss army knife, rather than a running back playing quarterback; as he’s been called.  Until the Ravens bring in more talent to catch, Lamar will be penned in.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Name another quarterback like Lamar Jackson.  I’d be reluctant to name one; that’s for sure.  Although there are others who share elements of his game, Lamar Jackson is truly one of a kind.  Players like Kyler Murray have had flashes, but not like Lamar Jackson.  And rushing aside, his arm, vision and leadership are greatly underestimated.  Freshly turned 25, the sky is truly the limit.  We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what he can really do.  And with so many elite options at the position being a limited number, shouldn’t we pounce while we can?  Many would say absolutely.

 

Dual Threat

I’ve alluded to it many times, but if you didn’t know or have never seen him play, Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest running quarterback of all time.  Michael Vick really broke the mold first in this style, and Cam Newton continued the legacy, but Lamar has virtually perfected it.  Lamar is one of two quarterbacks to run 1000 yards in a single season, and Lamar has done it twice.  In fact, had he played a full season, he averaged to do it for a third time in a row.  In fantasy, points are hard to come by as a quarterback, so if you add rushing, they pile up that much faster.  Throughout his career, he’s never averaged less than double digits per game in rush attempts.  And last season, with less games played, he broke more tackles and had a better yards after contact ratio.

 

Proven Winner

Lamar Jackson has a history of reigning.  Although he’s yet to claim the Superbowl, in fantasy, we only care about the regular season.  In college, he won the Heisman Trophy, for MVP at that level, in only his sophomore season.  And fantasy managers were rewarded in his first full season in the NFL.  Lamar was so insanely good that he won the NFL MVP at only 22.  In fact, he was only the second player in league history to win the award unanimously.  There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson is the type of player who is not content unless he’s getting better every year.  When you think about making a move for a cornerstone dynasty player, what more can you ask for?

 

Verdict

I’ll admit it, despite all his success in college, I agreed with the Ravens waiting so long to draft him. Due to his play style, there are more risks involved; not just with injury, but learning how to let the plays evolve and making the smarter decision for the long term.  Looking back now, it’s insane that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen went significantly higher.  Baltimore even took tight end Hayden Hurst before drafting Lamar.  It just goes to show that evaluating talent at the NFL level is not an exact science.

 

Lamar Jackson is one of the best players, not only at his position, but in the entirety of the National Football League.  A truly unique specimen, Jackson is one to be sought after and envied by anyone who doesn’t have him.  I face this dilemma though.  If it were redraft, there aren’t too many quarterbacks I’d like more, but in dynasty, long term value is a considerable factor.  Rush first quarterbacks simply do not last as long as ones that are not.  I would rather have a dual threat quarterback, but at an equivalent price, I lean toward one that will last.  At his current price point in dynasty, it gives me no option than to consider selling, but the deal has to be right.  There has to be an elite quarterback gained in return, however I’m sure I can get one back with draft capital too.

 

.. as long as the price is right.

JC Johnson’s 2022 NFL Mock Draft

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JC Johnson's 2022 NFL Mock Draft

by JC Johnson

 

I’m going to preface this by saying I didn’t add any potential trades into the mix because it would become far too chaotic.

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

When Jacksonville tagged Cam Robinson this week I was perplexed to say the least. I think Evan Neal is probably the safest prospect in this class in that we know he’s going to be a 10 year starter and play at a high level. Just take a look at his combine photo. With them tagging Robinson, I believe that means they want to beef up their DL and this class is loaded with those prospects. Hence selecting Hutchinson at #1. After a highly productive senior season that saw coach Harbaugh get over that hump, Hutchinson has done plenty to warrant #1 overall pick discussion.

2. Detroit Lions: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

This is where the mock gets spicier than usual. The Goff experiment in Detroit has run its course. He won’t be the guy to make them competitive, to be fair neither did Matthew Stafford outside of one playoff appearance. I think Holmes and Dan Campbell have a vision for this team. They’ve built the OL to be a top 10 unit in football, they’ve got good backs in Swift and Jamaal Williams, they’ve got playmakers in TJ Hockenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. They need a QB that can pull it all together. Willis has a very unique skill set and he can come into this season and not have to worry about playing. Let him sit for a year. Add another weapon in a deep WR class in this draft and another in 2023 and that offense is completely revamped, retooled, and ready to compete just as the Rodgers era in Green Bay is coming to an end.

3. Houston Texans: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans dealt Laremy Tunsil before the draft. The LT has expressed his displeasure with the organization and very well could be on the move. That would set up the Texans to not only accrue more draft capital to rebuild a depleted roster, but also adequately replace him with Evan Neal. The 6’7 337lb behemoth was carved out of marble. He’s as can’t miss as they come. An easy pick to make.

4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon 

The popular pick is Ikem Ekwonu here but Robert Saleh comes from an organization that loves DL from Oregon. I wouldn’t be surprised if he watches thibodeaux’s tape and all of those warm fuzzy feelings come rushing back to him. KT also fills a hole in the jets defensive scheme and with him on one side and a healthy Lawson on the other, the AFC East would be on notice.

5. New York Giants: Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

Bradberry will be out of town soon. Sauce Gardner is the hot name now at the corner position but before Gardner received national acclaim, stingley was the 18 year old wunderkind starting in the SEC locking up Ceedee Lamb in the 2019 CFP for the eventual National Champion LSU Tigers. I think people are getting ahead of themselves. It happens every year that a prospect is so good that people suffer from prospect fatigue and want to talk about a new player. Stingley is just that guy though. Don’t think too much.

6. Carolina Panthers: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

This is one of the easier picks to make thus far. Want to help out the passing game? Establish a good run game. This guy is a road grader. He throws bodies around and will immediately impact the Carolina offense.

7. New York Giants: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

Cross is an extremely polished, and smooth prospect, he perfectly fills in for a giants OL that can use help keeping the edge. He probably slots in as their RT but with most premier pass rushers moving over to that side of the ball, he’s a guy ready made for battle.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Hamilton is the #2 prospect on my board. He’s a complete unicorn at the position and when you have as many holes as Atlanta does you take the best player. People want to give them a WR here and there’s a lot of good ones. When you have the chance to draft a unicorn you take it though. Just like they did with another Kyle last season. These are building block players for a franchise.

9. Seattle Seahawks: Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

The first player of the vaunted Georgia defense comes off the board. Seattle is looking to add speed, athleticism, youth and impact to their defense and they can do all of that in one selection with Travon Walker, 6’4 270 and he ran 4.51. That is a big big man moving.

10. New York Jets: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

Penning is the fourth OT off the board, the Jets were in a similar situation when they selected Mekhi Becton. Penning is a far superior athlete that plays with a mean streak. He may not be ready made like Cross, Ekky, or Neal, but he’s a good player at a position they need help at. Douglas builds through the trenches and they continue to do so with this pick.

11. Washington Commanders: Drake London, WR, USC

When you go out and Carson Wentz you are essentially making the bet that if he fails, you’re out of a job. Ron Rivera and company need to do whatever it takes to make Wentz successful. That means giving him weapons to work with. We saw him have pretty good rapport with Michael Pittman and that is a very similar player to Drake London. London profiles as the big body contested catch receiver to let Terry Mclaurin take the top off and Curtis Samuel to be worked in as the gadget player they want to use him as in Scott Turner’s offense.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati 

With Peterson probably not returning to the fold, the best corner on the roster is Kris Boyd. This is an easy pick for a new front office that is going to look to acquire the best talent available. Sauce is just that. Don’t think just pick.

13. Cleveland Browns: Jermaine Johnson Jr, EDGE, Florida State

For a team that just acquired Amari Cooper, WR isn’t going to be the pick here. Instead, with Clowney’s return uncertain, they go with the best player on their board and allow Johnson to pin his ears back on the opposite side of Garrett and get to the QB.

14. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

I know the Ravens fans will freak out when this pick isn’t one of Sauce or Stingley but they’re both too good to be here at 14. Honestly, Linderbaum is my #3 overall player on my board. He’s too good to be here too. The Ravens have a need at center with Bozeman hitting free agency and Linderbaum is just an unbelievable player. He gets out in front and pulls from the center position and will only add depth to an already potent rushing attack when Dobbins and Edwards return.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Andrew Booth Jr, CB, Clemson

This corner class is stacked and adding Booth to pair with Slay is too enticing to pass up on. He’s an instant playmaker at the NFL level.

16. Philadelphia Eagles: David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan

An incredible value on an edge rusher the Eagles are getting Ojabo here. Speed off the edge is how I would describe him. He may need to work on run defense but this guy can get to the QB.

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

This is the easiest pick in the entire draft so far. Simply put Davis is an absolute freak. At 6’6 341 and a 4.78 40 time, I’m not sure the NFL has ever seen someone this big with that athleticism since probably Larry Allen. He immediately fixes the run defense and will clog up the middle for Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

18. New Orleans Saints: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

What do you do for a QB with small hands? Put him in a dome and let him play in a division with another dome and warm weather. Pickett can operate fairly well in this timing offense of that NOLA operates and will be able to step in day 1 and play. 

19. Philadelphia Eagles: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

The Eagles need to give Hurts more playmakers if they want to truly see what he is. Devonta Smith is great and Dallas Goedert is no slouch, but their next best option is Quez Watkins. Burks is lightning in the bottle and can do a lot with very little if you get him the ball. He’s the perfect asset for a QB that struggles to push the ball to intermediate and deep routes.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College

The Steelers need offensive line help. I think Johnson’s skillset will entice them as a guy who can play multiple positions and allow them to move Kendrick Green over to RG where he was more successful during the latter part of 2021.

21. New England Patriots: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

Lloyd is a Belichick kind of player. He’s smart, big at 6’3 225 in the make of a Donta Hightower and he's an instinctive player who can read underneath passing lanes as well as zone scheme run assignments.

22. Las Vegas Raiders: Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma

The popular pick here is a WR to replace Henry Ruggs but the best DT on the roster is Kendal Vickers at the present moment. This WR class is deep, but Perrion Winfrey has repeatedly stolen the show in the pre draft process from the senior bowl to the combine interviews. He’s got the charisma of a leader and the play on the field to back up a 1st round selection. He hasn’t been a 1st in a lot of mocks, I expect that to change as the draft gets closer.

23. Arizona Cardinals: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

I think Garrett Wilson is the best WR in this class. He’s fast, runs every route in the tree and can jump out of the gym. He’s such an upgrade over Christian Kirk it’s almost laughable.

24. Dallas Cowboys: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

The rich get richer. The 3rd member of the Georgia defense goes in round 1. This isn’t the sexiest name of the first round but he’s a good football player. The Cowboys can use him to beef up the interior.

25. Buffalo Bills: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

The idea of giving the Bills another WR is enticing but they need to play better defense if they want to advance in the playoffs. McDuffie can lock down the other side of Tre'davious White when he returns from injury.

26. Tennessee Titans: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

With Caleb Farley already injured and having suffered multiple injuries before reaching the NFL, the Titans need to double down at the position. Elam is great in press, physical and has incredible tape against Jameson Williams in this class.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

I love Corral’s moxie. In a mock where there aren’t any trades this is the best landing spot I could pick for him. He’s got weapons galore on the perimeter and has the arm to air it out in Bruce Arians system. He’s also athletic enough to run the ball when he gets in some sticky situations which he most likely will with Ali Marpet unexpectedly retiring this off-season.

28. Green Bay Packers: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio Sate

I’m doing it, I’m giving Rodgers his first 1st round WR. My head and history says give them Nakobe Dean but my heart tells me that if the Packers are going to shell out 50 mill a season for a guy, they should probably do whatever they have to do to make him happy and successful.

29. Miami Dolphins: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

Dean plays with incredible instinct and speed. People are a little concerned about his size but in today’s NFL you need a MLB that can cover the TE and slot if called upon. Gone are the days where these guys weigh 240 and are slamming into fullbacks in the hole. I think he’s an incredible value at 29.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Sometimes, people just want to watch the world burn. What do you give to the guy who has everything? Speed. More speed. This would make the chiefs offense go nuclear. I think it’s possible he slips with the ACL injury and to team philosophy with other WRs going before him that have demonstrated an ability to do different things. 

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

We know what the Bengals need to do. Every single pick of theirs should go into keeping Joe Burrow alive.

32. Detroit Lions: George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he went higher than this. People are concerned about his athleticism and the rumor mill is saying he didn’t interview well. I believe he’s too talented to be here at 32 but sometimes, good people get nice things.