Quarterbacks

Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

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Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

By Tim Lazenby

 

The consensus among experts is that Josh Allen is the QB1 in dynasty.  This statement is definitely not unfounded, as we’ll discuss.  When looking at contenders for the crown of top quarterback in dynasty, there are a few.  Many would put Patrick Mahomes right at the top.  Other names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and even Joe Burrow have popped up.  But, I think the biggest contender is none other than Justin Herbert.

Since Justin Herbert only has two seasons in the National Football League, let’s take a moment to break down the first two seasons for Justin Herbert and his top competition, Josh Allen, as passers.  

 

Passing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2018 22 11 5-6-0 320 169 2074 10 12 3.1 52.8 89 75 6.5 12.3 172.8 67.9 28
2019 23 16 10-6-0 461 271 3089 20 9 4.3 58.8 146 53 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 38

 

 

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2020 22 15 6-9-0 595 396 4336 31 10 5.2 66.6 216 72 7.3 10.9 289.1 98.3 32
2021 23 17 9-8-0 672 443 5014 38 15 5.7 65.9 256 72 7.5 11.3 294.9 97.7 31

 

When it comes to prowess in the passing game, although Allen has greatly improved, he wasn’t even close to the same level in his first two seasons as Justin Herbert was in his.  Even now, Allen’s passing game, whether it be from the system or his talent itself, doesn’t approach the numbers that Justin Herbert has put out.  I’d still take Josh Allen over the vast majority of the league as a passer, but he’s quite a distance away from Herbert, at least by the numbers.

Let’s not forget about the running game for both Allen and Herbert though.  We all know that a rushing quarterback is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.  It’s a talent that can’t be ignored when considering dynasty QB1 status.  Here are the stats for each as a rookie and sophomore.

 

Rushing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year

 Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2018 22 11 89 631 8 41 45 7.1 52.6 7.4 280 6
2019 23 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 319 6.8 243 10

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2020 22 15 55 234 5 20 31 4.3 15.6 3.7 57 5
2021 23 17 63 302 3 28 36 4.8 17.8 3.7 48 1

 

 

When it comes to the running game, it’s not even close.  Josh Allen is far superior in this regard.  While he’s not at the level of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or even Jalen Hurts, he rules supreme among the duo we’re talking about and is still a top option in the entire NFL in this regard.  It is important to note, however, that the rushing game of Justin Herbert is underrated and respectable: quite in the realm of what you look for in that elite quarterback when paired with their passing game.

Conclusion

It’s a tale of two very different entrances into the NFL.  Josh Allen’s beginning was very difficult.  With Kelvin Benjamin, as a journeyman at that point, and an aging LeSean McCoy as the best options, you can see why he struggled out of the gate.  The defense also ranked in the middle of the pack, often leaving Allen without his best shot at success.  His continued improvement is fantastic, and even though I’m only highlighting his first two seasons, I don’t need to tell you how good he’s become.  The current team surrounding him is also very good.  The Buffalo Bills don’t have many holes and they should win their division; clearing the way for another year of fantasy success for Josh Allen.  I’m sure we can expect similar production from Allen, but that’s the problem.  I don’t see things getting any better.

For the first time in 16 years, someone other than Philip Rivers was QB for the Chargers and Herbert was better than most predicted, even behind the league’s worst offensive line.  In his first two seasons, Herbert was sensational and he’s only gotten better.  He didn’t need a couple years to develop.  He’s simply always been amazing and he’s only getting better.  Coupled with the unbelievable off season that Tom Telesco has given to the Chargers, I can’t see Herbert’s stock doing anything else but skyrocket.  The offensive weapons have quietly improved, but the defense is the most helpful part to aid in Herbert’s continued success.  If the Chargers don’t finish as the league’s best defense it’d be surprising, but even if they don’t, they are light years better.  This will keep Herbert on the field more, hence scoring more fantasy points than ever before.

In today’s NFL, dual threat quarterbacks are all the rage, but some are just so good that they don’t need to rely on it.  Take the discount now and bank on Justin Herbert as dynasty’s QB1 moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

by Tim Lazenby

 

The National Football League is one filled with a rich history.  When a feat is accomplished it is unlikely that it hasn’t been done already.  The NFL is actually over 100 years old and the merger that caused the league as we know it today was over half a century ago.  Needless to say, and understating the obvious, records aren’t easily broken and true history isn’t likely to be carved anymore.  But, it does happen.  One of these trailblazers still here is none other than Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

 

The Reason to Sell

Before last season, I don’t think there was any reason to have such a debate.  Lamar Jackson showed nothing but improvement and prowess; exactly the type of player you want leading your dynasty to the ultimate fantasy prize.  Questions of looming health and long term value have begun creeping in and it’s time to address the question of Lamar Jackson’s value.  Just what do we do with the quarterback from Louisville?

 

Poor Protection

Despite having many talents, we all know the greatest strength to Lamar Jackson’s game is his ability to run the ball.  The opposing team needs to change it’s whole defensive scheme to account for that one unicorn in Baltimore.  The sad truth is that a runner can only be as effective as his protection.  Defenses have not only brought more pressure each and every year Lamar has played, he’s payed the price in a higher sack rate as well.  Last season he was sacked an extra 40% more than he was in his MVP season.  His ineffective offensive line also forces his hand more.  Decisions to throw or not turn into a hurried run play due to lack of time and blocking.  How much longer can Lamar Jackson take the pressure until it plummets his fantasy football value? 

 

Lack of Receivers

Not every team in the NFL has the same talents and depth at positions as others.  Each and every team, no matter how strong, has weaknesses and one of the glaring ones in Baltimore is its lack of receiving depth.  Without a plethora of hands to throw to, Lamar is forced to funnel too many targets at Andrews and rush the ball more than he should.  Even back to college, he was a monster running the ball, but he was a very underrated passer.  The depth at Louisville didn’t consist of one target hog, making Lamar much more of a swiss army knife, rather than a running back playing quarterback; as he’s been called.  Until the Ravens bring in more talent to catch, Lamar will be penned in.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Name another quarterback like Lamar Jackson.  I’d be reluctant to name one; that’s for sure.  Although there are others who share elements of his game, Lamar Jackson is truly one of a kind.  Players like Kyler Murray have had flashes, but not like Lamar Jackson.  And rushing aside, his arm, vision and leadership are greatly underestimated.  Freshly turned 25, the sky is truly the limit.  We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what he can really do.  And with so many elite options at the position being a limited number, shouldn’t we pounce while we can?  Many would say absolutely.

 

Dual Threat

I’ve alluded to it many times, but if you didn’t know or have never seen him play, Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest running quarterback of all time.  Michael Vick really broke the mold first in this style, and Cam Newton continued the legacy, but Lamar has virtually perfected it.  Lamar is one of two quarterbacks to run 1000 yards in a single season, and Lamar has done it twice.  In fact, had he played a full season, he averaged to do it for a third time in a row.  In fantasy, points are hard to come by as a quarterback, so if you add rushing, they pile up that much faster.  Throughout his career, he’s never averaged less than double digits per game in rush attempts.  And last season, with less games played, he broke more tackles and had a better yards after contact ratio.

 

Proven Winner

Lamar Jackson has a history of reigning.  Although he’s yet to claim the Superbowl, in fantasy, we only care about the regular season.  In college, he won the Heisman Trophy, for MVP at that level, in only his sophomore season.  And fantasy managers were rewarded in his first full season in the NFL.  Lamar was so insanely good that he won the NFL MVP at only 22.  In fact, he was only the second player in league history to win the award unanimously.  There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson is the type of player who is not content unless he’s getting better every year.  When you think about making a move for a cornerstone dynasty player, what more can you ask for?

 

Verdict

I’ll admit it, despite all his success in college, I agreed with the Ravens waiting so long to draft him. Due to his play style, there are more risks involved; not just with injury, but learning how to let the plays evolve and making the smarter decision for the long term.  Looking back now, it’s insane that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen went significantly higher.  Baltimore even took tight end Hayden Hurst before drafting Lamar.  It just goes to show that evaluating talent at the NFL level is not an exact science.

 

Lamar Jackson is one of the best players, not only at his position, but in the entirety of the National Football League.  A truly unique specimen, Jackson is one to be sought after and envied by anyone who doesn’t have him.  I face this dilemma though.  If it were redraft, there aren’t too many quarterbacks I’d like more, but in dynasty, long term value is a considerable factor.  Rush first quarterbacks simply do not last as long as ones that are not.  I would rather have a dual threat quarterback, but at an equivalent price, I lean toward one that will last.  At his current price point in dynasty, it gives me no option than to consider selling, but the deal has to be right.  There has to be an elite quarterback gained in return, however I’m sure I can get one back with draft capital too.

 

.. as long as the price is right.

JC Johnson’s 2022 NFL Mock Draft

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JC Johnson's 2022 NFL Mock Draft

by JC Johnson

 

I’m going to preface this by saying I didn’t add any potential trades into the mix because it would become far too chaotic.

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

When Jacksonville tagged Cam Robinson this week I was perplexed to say the least. I think Evan Neal is probably the safest prospect in this class in that we know he’s going to be a 10 year starter and play at a high level. Just take a look at his combine photo. With them tagging Robinson, I believe that means they want to beef up their DL and this class is loaded with those prospects. Hence selecting Hutchinson at #1. After a highly productive senior season that saw coach Harbaugh get over that hump, Hutchinson has done plenty to warrant #1 overall pick discussion.

2. Detroit Lions: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

This is where the mock gets spicier than usual. The Goff experiment in Detroit has run its course. He won’t be the guy to make them competitive, to be fair neither did Matthew Stafford outside of one playoff appearance. I think Holmes and Dan Campbell have a vision for this team. They’ve built the OL to be a top 10 unit in football, they’ve got good backs in Swift and Jamaal Williams, they’ve got playmakers in TJ Hockenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. They need a QB that can pull it all together. Willis has a very unique skill set and he can come into this season and not have to worry about playing. Let him sit for a year. Add another weapon in a deep WR class in this draft and another in 2023 and that offense is completely revamped, retooled, and ready to compete just as the Rodgers era in Green Bay is coming to an end.

3. Houston Texans: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans dealt Laremy Tunsil before the draft. The LT has expressed his displeasure with the organization and very well could be on the move. That would set up the Texans to not only accrue more draft capital to rebuild a depleted roster, but also adequately replace him with Evan Neal. The 6’7 337lb behemoth was carved out of marble. He’s as can’t miss as they come. An easy pick to make.

4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon 

The popular pick is Ikem Ekwonu here but Robert Saleh comes from an organization that loves DL from Oregon. I wouldn’t be surprised if he watches thibodeaux’s tape and all of those warm fuzzy feelings come rushing back to him. KT also fills a hole in the jets defensive scheme and with him on one side and a healthy Lawson on the other, the AFC East would be on notice.

5. New York Giants: Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

Bradberry will be out of town soon. Sauce Gardner is the hot name now at the corner position but before Gardner received national acclaim, stingley was the 18 year old wunderkind starting in the SEC locking up Ceedee Lamb in the 2019 CFP for the eventual National Champion LSU Tigers. I think people are getting ahead of themselves. It happens every year that a prospect is so good that people suffer from prospect fatigue and want to talk about a new player. Stingley is just that guy though. Don’t think too much.

6. Carolina Panthers: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

This is one of the easier picks to make thus far. Want to help out the passing game? Establish a good run game. This guy is a road grader. He throws bodies around and will immediately impact the Carolina offense.

7. New York Giants: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

Cross is an extremely polished, and smooth prospect, he perfectly fills in for a giants OL that can use help keeping the edge. He probably slots in as their RT but with most premier pass rushers moving over to that side of the ball, he’s a guy ready made for battle.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Hamilton is the #2 prospect on my board. He’s a complete unicorn at the position and when you have as many holes as Atlanta does you take the best player. People want to give them a WR here and there’s a lot of good ones. When you have the chance to draft a unicorn you take it though. Just like they did with another Kyle last season. These are building block players for a franchise.

9. Seattle Seahawks: Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

The first player of the vaunted Georgia defense comes off the board. Seattle is looking to add speed, athleticism, youth and impact to their defense and they can do all of that in one selection with Travon Walker, 6’4 270 and he ran 4.51. That is a big big man moving.

10. New York Jets: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

Penning is the fourth OT off the board, the Jets were in a similar situation when they selected Mekhi Becton. Penning is a far superior athlete that plays with a mean streak. He may not be ready made like Cross, Ekky, or Neal, but he’s a good player at a position they need help at. Douglas builds through the trenches and they continue to do so with this pick.

11. Washington Commanders: Drake London, WR, USC

When you go out and Carson Wentz you are essentially making the bet that if he fails, you’re out of a job. Ron Rivera and company need to do whatever it takes to make Wentz successful. That means giving him weapons to work with. We saw him have pretty good rapport with Michael Pittman and that is a very similar player to Drake London. London profiles as the big body contested catch receiver to let Terry Mclaurin take the top off and Curtis Samuel to be worked in as the gadget player they want to use him as in Scott Turner’s offense.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati 

With Peterson probably not returning to the fold, the best corner on the roster is Kris Boyd. This is an easy pick for a new front office that is going to look to acquire the best talent available. Sauce is just that. Don’t think just pick.

13. Cleveland Browns: Jermaine Johnson Jr, EDGE, Florida State

For a team that just acquired Amari Cooper, WR isn’t going to be the pick here. Instead, with Clowney’s return uncertain, they go with the best player on their board and allow Johnson to pin his ears back on the opposite side of Garrett and get to the QB.

14. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

I know the Ravens fans will freak out when this pick isn’t one of Sauce or Stingley but they’re both too good to be here at 14. Honestly, Linderbaum is my #3 overall player on my board. He’s too good to be here too. The Ravens have a need at center with Bozeman hitting free agency and Linderbaum is just an unbelievable player. He gets out in front and pulls from the center position and will only add depth to an already potent rushing attack when Dobbins and Edwards return.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Andrew Booth Jr, CB, Clemson

This corner class is stacked and adding Booth to pair with Slay is too enticing to pass up on. He’s an instant playmaker at the NFL level.

16. Philadelphia Eagles: David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan

An incredible value on an edge rusher the Eagles are getting Ojabo here. Speed off the edge is how I would describe him. He may need to work on run defense but this guy can get to the QB.

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

This is the easiest pick in the entire draft so far. Simply put Davis is an absolute freak. At 6’6 341 and a 4.78 40 time, I’m not sure the NFL has ever seen someone this big with that athleticism since probably Larry Allen. He immediately fixes the run defense and will clog up the middle for Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

18. New Orleans Saints: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

What do you do for a QB with small hands? Put him in a dome and let him play in a division with another dome and warm weather. Pickett can operate fairly well in this timing offense of that NOLA operates and will be able to step in day 1 and play. 

19. Philadelphia Eagles: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

The Eagles need to give Hurts more playmakers if they want to truly see what he is. Devonta Smith is great and Dallas Goedert is no slouch, but their next best option is Quez Watkins. Burks is lightning in the bottle and can do a lot with very little if you get him the ball. He’s the perfect asset for a QB that struggles to push the ball to intermediate and deep routes.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College

The Steelers need offensive line help. I think Johnson’s skillset will entice them as a guy who can play multiple positions and allow them to move Kendrick Green over to RG where he was more successful during the latter part of 2021.

21. New England Patriots: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

Lloyd is a Belichick kind of player. He’s smart, big at 6’3 225 in the make of a Donta Hightower and he's an instinctive player who can read underneath passing lanes as well as zone scheme run assignments.

22. Las Vegas Raiders: Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma

The popular pick here is a WR to replace Henry Ruggs but the best DT on the roster is Kendal Vickers at the present moment. This WR class is deep, but Perrion Winfrey has repeatedly stolen the show in the pre draft process from the senior bowl to the combine interviews. He’s got the charisma of a leader and the play on the field to back up a 1st round selection. He hasn’t been a 1st in a lot of mocks, I expect that to change as the draft gets closer.

23. Arizona Cardinals: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

I think Garrett Wilson is the best WR in this class. He’s fast, runs every route in the tree and can jump out of the gym. He’s such an upgrade over Christian Kirk it’s almost laughable.

24. Dallas Cowboys: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

The rich get richer. The 3rd member of the Georgia defense goes in round 1. This isn’t the sexiest name of the first round but he’s a good football player. The Cowboys can use him to beef up the interior.

25. Buffalo Bills: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

The idea of giving the Bills another WR is enticing but they need to play better defense if they want to advance in the playoffs. McDuffie can lock down the other side of Tre'davious White when he returns from injury.

26. Tennessee Titans: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

With Caleb Farley already injured and having suffered multiple injuries before reaching the NFL, the Titans need to double down at the position. Elam is great in press, physical and has incredible tape against Jameson Williams in this class.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

I love Corral’s moxie. In a mock where there aren’t any trades this is the best landing spot I could pick for him. He’s got weapons galore on the perimeter and has the arm to air it out in Bruce Arians system. He’s also athletic enough to run the ball when he gets in some sticky situations which he most likely will with Ali Marpet unexpectedly retiring this off-season.

28. Green Bay Packers: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio Sate

I’m doing it, I’m giving Rodgers his first 1st round WR. My head and history says give them Nakobe Dean but my heart tells me that if the Packers are going to shell out 50 mill a season for a guy, they should probably do whatever they have to do to make him happy and successful.

29. Miami Dolphins: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

Dean plays with incredible instinct and speed. People are a little concerned about his size but in today’s NFL you need a MLB that can cover the TE and slot if called upon. Gone are the days where these guys weigh 240 and are slamming into fullbacks in the hole. I think he’s an incredible value at 29.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Sometimes, people just want to watch the world burn. What do you give to the guy who has everything? Speed. More speed. This would make the chiefs offense go nuclear. I think it’s possible he slips with the ACL injury and to team philosophy with other WRs going before him that have demonstrated an ability to do different things. 

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

We know what the Bengals need to do. Every single pick of theirs should go into keeping Joe Burrow alive.

32. Detroit Lions: George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he went higher than this. People are concerned about his athleticism and the rumor mill is saying he didn’t interview well. I believe he’s too talented to be here at 32 but sometimes, good people get nice things.

Secret Leaders

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Hidden Gems

By Tim Lazenby

In the National Football League, greatness is often measured by the obvious statistics.  Players like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase were heralded for historic seasons among wide receivers.  Looking at the numbers, like touchdowns and receiving yards, it is quite apparent.  The same can be true of any position.  At quarterback, players like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are recognized due to their touchdowns and interception ratio.  Among running backs, Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler dominated with their yardage and touchdowns.  And at tight end, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce reigned supreme.

But, there are many statistics that are not so easily discovered.  In dynasty fantasy football, we need to look for the hidden numbers and potential, as these players will be on our teams for years to come.  Drafting or trading by looking at obvious stats can be expensive, but if we look a little deeper, there are players in the league who were the best at what they did going largely unnoticed in 2021.  Below I’ve listed three players at each skilled position who lead the league in something most managers will find surprising.

Wide Receivers

Contested Catches

Although there are many wide receivers who caught more and scored more touchdowns, among contested catches, Terry McLaurin led the league with 25.  It’s even more impressive when you consider he caught 77 total in 2021, meaning he fought for every inch.  This can be looked at negatively as some would say there is a lack of separation, but I choose to look at the bright side.  I want a receiver who can catch those 50/50 balls.  And although he’s not looked fondly among many, Carson Wentz is an improvement over Taylor Heinicke.  So McLaurin should do even better next year catching from, arguably, his best NFL quarterback yet.

Catch Percentage

Target share is a big proponent when looking at wide receivers.  The chance at more targets means the chance at more fantasy points.  But, it is also more important to catch the balls that come your way.  A target not caught nets you nothing.  Many rookies gained acclaim last year, but Rondale Moore was seen as a disappointment by many.  Despite the haters, you should know that he led all wide receivers in 2021 in catch percentage with 84.4%.  Finding a cheap option that catches better than four out of five should be one readily sought after.

Red Zone Target Share

Not too many elite dynasty wide receivers are taking more of a hit to their value than DK Metcalf.  Aside from what can be looked at as a down season, he now loses his NFL lifelong option at Russell Wilson.  Although the number might go down, Metcalf led the league last season with a 36.5% red zone target share.  One could even argue that with a lesser option at quarterback, they will need to lean on Metcalf more than ever for success in 2022.

Running Backs

Least Drops Among Eligible Players

In fantasy each year, the running back position is more and more valuable when catches are made.  While only a handful are elite at the position, there are even fewer who have sticky gloves.  Of all the running backs in the NFL, only 25 of them had at least 50 targets thrown their way.  And of those 25, only one player did not have one single drop.  Although he’s a free agent, JD McKissic will certainly garner interest as an excellent pass catching running back.  And if he returns, much like Terry McLaurin, his play should improve with an upgrade to quarterback.

Average Yards After Contact

A team’s ability to establish the running game is well known to be important, and there are a limited number of rushers who are pure power runners.  Hindered mostly by injuries, not only last season but his entire career, Rashaad Penny truly soared at the end of the 2021 season.  While his first place average yards after contact isn’t likely to remain at a whopping 4.2, it is a good sign that the former first round pick has plenty left in the tank.  Whether he stays in Seattle or signs elsewhere, he’s surely shown enough to get the ball often to start next season.

Red Zone Attempts

Among running backs, it is truly difficult to find many categories that Jonathan Taylor did not lead.  Arguably the most elite option at running back, Jonathan Taylor is insanely expensive in dynasty and redraft formats alike.  There are others, however, who also did well last season.  In 2021, the running back with the most red zone attempts may shock you.  Damien Harris, after Taylor, had the most red zone attempts with 30.  His touchdowns in the red zone were also impressive, ranking him third in the league.  Despite the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson and the carousel of other backs that Bill Belichick loves to use, Damien Harris is leaned on more than almost any other running back when it matters the most.

Tight Ends

Average Yards after the Catch

Tight end is a finicky position to be sure.  Finding massive fantasy relevance at the position is a tall task and finding one at a discount is an even bigger mountain.  Although there are many with more yards after the catch, when you consider per reception, Jonnu Smith led all tight ends last year with 8.3.  As Mac Jones grows, Jonnu Smith is certainly to be rewarded.  And if Hunter Henry misses any time, Jonnu Smith is sure to shine.

Snap Count

Take a guess which tight end ran the most snaps in 2021.  Mark Andrews?  Kyle Pitts?  Travis Kelce?  What if I told you it was Dalton Schultz with 993?  In fact, only three other non-quarterbacks ran more than Schultz; with first place Cooper Kupp leading Schultz by only 31.  It’s truly insane to consider that Dalton Schultz ran more snaps than the likes of Aaron Rodgers and among tight ends, it wasn’t even close.  As well as he did last season, Dalton Schultz can certainly only do better with how much he is on offense with the Cowboys.

Red Zone Targets

As tight ends are usually the most touchdown dependent position in fantasy football, finding one who is used inside the 20 yard line is a must.  With a higher probability of getting that six points plus yards, you should know that Dawson Knox led all tight ends last year in targets and receptions inside the 20; equalling 8 of his total 14 touchdowns.  And while his touchdown ratio should fall next season due to its lack of stability, his usage in the red zone should continue moving forward as no one attempted more red zone passes last season than Josh Allen.

Quarterbacks

Time in the Pocket

Pocket passers are usually less than desired when it comes to fantasy.  A quarterback without rushing upside is completely dependent on what his receivers can do.  Time in the pocket is often associated with more opportunities to make the perfect pass, but it also allows the quarterback time to make his own play.  Among all starting quarterbacks, surprisingly, Jalen Hurts led the way in time between the snap and either throwing the ball or pressure.  With so much time on his hands, Hurts ran more than any other quarterback last year, while generating more yards than anyone else at the position and scoring double digit rushing touchdowns.

Average Net Yards Gained

One of the signs of a good quarterback is net yards gained per pass.  Short catches are great, but longer stretch plays can allow more probability of a touchdown.  True pocket passes are becoming more rare in the league and it may surprise you to know that Jimmy Garoppolo led the National Football League in average net yards gained in 2021 with 7.68.  While much of this can be attributed to weapons such as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, Jimmy G’s talent certainly can’t be overlooked completely.  Although Garoppolo is moving on from San Francisco, he’ll find a home and have success and a price fantasy managers can get on board with.

Red Zone Completion Percentage

There’s not a lot more satisfying than a receiver catching that perfect ball for a touchdown.  The quarterback has to remain calm and collected in general, but in the red zone, it takes even more prowess to succeed.  In 2021, none other than Jameis Winston led the league inside the ten yard line with a completion percentage of 77.78%.  That’s right.  Over three quarters of all balls he threw in the red zone were caught and of all his touchdowns, only three were caught beyond the twenty yard line.  While it’s only a sample size, as he was hurt for a portion of last season, he’s shown the capability before and at his price point, it’s an obvious choice.

Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

By Alex French

 

What a rush?!?! Within 3 hours 2 potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks announce their 2022 teams. Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay, and perhaps more influential to our fantasy teams, Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have been in search of a quarterback since Peyton Manning retired. Broncos fans, rejoice! The search is over. Let’s dig into what this means for your fantasy team.

 

Reason to Sell

Injury

The 2021 season was one to forget for Wilson. Surgery on his throwing hand forced him to miss 3 games. Returning to the field sooner than many expected, Wilson’s play wasn’t quite what we’ve come to expect from the 9-time pro-bowler. However, He finished strong with 655 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and just 1 interception over his last 3 games. He even chipped in with his legs with over 40 rushing yards. 

 

Age/Size

Russ isn't getting any younger.  At 33 years old (will be 34 midway through the season), Wilson's style of play doesn't lend to a overly long career.  He will eventually have to evolve the way he plays in order to increase his potential of longevity.  Also, as a smaller QB, he will have to limit the amount of hits he takes in the future.

 

 

Reason to Buy

Improved Talent

In 2022, he gets a much improved offensive line in Denver that allowed just 40 sacks last season, which would be the fewest number since 2012 for Wilson. With time to throw, look for Wilson to maintain the elite efficiency he’s exhibited throughout his career. Beyond just the offensive line, Wilson gets an excellent defense and plenty of offensive weapons to play with. 

Russell Wilson arrives in Denver with a head coach who just helped lead Aaron Rodgers to back to back MVP awards. If the Packers offense of the last 2 years provides a template, we should be able to project a potent offense with plenty of fantasy points to go around. We have seen Wilson thrive with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle. Now, he gets to see what he can do with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and a red zone target in Albert Okwuegbunm. Not to mention rising star Javonta Williams out of the backfield. 

Russell Wilson gets a fresh start, surrounded by young talent with a strong offensive line. Expect to see great things from Wilson in Denver. Perhaps the highest fantasy finish of his career. With at least 3+ years left in the tank, look to acquire Wilson in your dynasty leagues.

 

Question the Rankings

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Question the Rankings

by Kevyn Godwin

 

Every season we start the same cycle. We look at rankings, read a few articles, then draft our teams. Often ending that cycle by blaming the rankings guy for your performance. Better yet, we bully the rankings before we do any research ourselves as if we need to be spoon-fed the key to a championship but hate everything that’s put on our plate. I simply ask why.

 

Question The Rankings

First, you should question the rankings. How are they put together? Does it only show the top 10? Is there a statistical trend?

When looking for positional rankings, you always want to look for a list based on your league size. For example, in a 12 team league, the top 12 WR become WR1. Then 13-24 are WR2.  You use this method to know where a player should be drafted and how strong your roster is.

The next part is stats. Do the rankings look at how the player actually finished last year vs this year’s projection? Take Stefan Diggs. Statistically finished In the top three for 2020 and  9th best WR in 2021. If a rankings list has him outside of the top 12 for 2022, do they explain the reason for projecting a continued drop vs a bounce back?

 

Question The Source

Everyone can write, and we all have opinions we want heard. But is the source of your rankings giving you unbiased information or just another way to package his agenda?

We as the reader and fantasy player have to take into consideration that the person making the rankings also have fantasy teams. They probably have favorite teams and players too. In the rankings, does it pass the eye test? Is there an out-of-place player because that’s the writer's hometown hero? On the opposite end, is a player left off the rankings because he busted the writer's championship hopes.

They could also be downplaying a player as a strategy for trade. Rank a player low just so they can trade less to get them on their own team.

 

Question Yourself

Just as we know a writer can have bias, so do we as a reader looking at the rankings. We need to ask ourselves the same questions. Do you disagree with a ranking just because your favorite player is too low? Did you take CMC two years in a row just to be disappointed? So now you have the 10th RB overall. Who is on your trade list that you wanna get cheap this year? I bet you told your buddy that he stinks and is a bust at some point to drop his value.

 

The Answer

It's simple but overlooked. Question everything! Ask yourself, is this source reputable? Do I see an agenda within their work? Are there others that use this source for rankings?

Am I reviewing the rankings with an open mind? Do I check my own rankings against stats before judging others? Is the way I rank players line up with proper tiers?

Finally, the best advice I can give is to do the work! Look at multiple rankings. Review multiple sources. Make sure the historical stats meet your upcoming seasons' expectations. Know ahead of time that not all rankings are created equal, so you need to do the research to level the playing field.