PPR

Sleeper Files: Allen Lazard

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Sleeper Files: Allen Lazard

By Tommy Harvey

Have the Green Bay Packers finally found a WR2 to pair with Davante Adams?  The Packers have not had tandem WRs achieve 100+ targets apiece since 2016, when Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams both had over 100 targets.  Last season, 38 players in the NFL saw 100+ targets.

In 2019, Allen Lazard was targeted 52 times and caught 35 of those balls for 477 yards.  He played in all 16 games, but he only started 3 of those games.  Going into the 2020 season, Lazard projects as the WR2 for Green Bay.  If he is indeed the number two WR, he should become a target monster and a red zone threat for Aaron Rodgers.

With the departure of Geronimo Allison to the rival Detroit Lions, 55 targets from last season also left.  Combine that with the fact that Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s targets decreased from 73 two seasons ago to 56 last season, Allen Lazard could see 90-100 targets.  

Let’s look at some hypothetical stats here…

Assume his 67% target/catch ratio, around 14 yards per catch (he had 13.6 ypc last season), and about a 6% TD ratio.

80 targets, 54 receptions, 756 yards, 5 TDs----WR40

90 targets, 60 receptions, 840 yards, 6 TDs----WR31

100 targets, 67 receptions, 938 yards, 7 TDs----WR21

If....take that word for what it’s worth...IF Allen Lazard becomes that true 2nd receiver in Green Bay, he could be between a WR2 and WR3 in your fantasy league.   

2020 Prediction and Fantasy Outlook:

57 Receptions, 798 yards, 6 TDs WR34

Currently being drafted as the overall WR67 in the middle of the 15th round, Lazard could pay HUGE dividends at that draft position.  At 6’5” and 227lbs, he has similar size and speed to Tampa Bay star WR Mike Evans.  Imagine Aaron Rodgers having that type of target alongside Davante Adams...  

Follow me on Twitter @dynastyprostom

Bucc..Bucc…CHOOSE!

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Bucc..Bucc...CHOOSE!

By Matt Kelley 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made the most off-season noise in the NFL. They sent Jameis Winston packing, acquired the services of six time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady, and they brought Rob Gronkowski out of retirement - one of the most dominant tight ends of all time. As a Carolina Panthers fan, this is nightmare fuel. 

The two biggest constants for the Bucs last season, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are still in Tampa as one of the league's best wide receiver duos. They have been subject to many dynasty debates. 

What does all of this change mean for them? Who is the better option for your dynasty squad?  Let’s dive in. 

Mike Evans: 

Last season was a roller coaster ride for Evans. He finished with 67 catches, 1157 receiving yards, and eight TD’s. That’s a good line for a 16 game season, and Evans compiled those numbers into just 13 games. 

Like his counterpart Chris Godwin, Evans experienced the side effects of Jameis Winston’s erratic play. 42.7% of Evans' total points last season came in a three game stretch from weeks 6-9. While fantasy managers would probably prefer a more even distribution, Evans still showed that he could put up massive totals when he’s heavily involved with the game plan. 

Evans had nine games last season where he caught four or fewer passes. While the targets were there in some of those games, those targets were coming from Winston. Much has been made of Tom Brady’s lack of arm strength, but he actually had a more accurate deep ball completion percentage (41.7%) than Winston (36.3%), this bodes well for Evans. 

Evans will be 27 when the season begins, which leaves the possibility that Evans may still have his best football days in front of him. He is a big body WR that bullies his way to the football. 

The one knock on Evans is his ability to do more after the catch. Over the last two seasons Evans ranked 36th in 2019 and 33rd in 2018 in yards after catch. Still, he continues to put up monster yardage totals due to his average depth of target, and given that Brady has always been a QB to rely on timing and accuracy, Evans could absolutely be thrown open more by Brady this season. Some of that will depend on Evans creating separation, that hasn’t always been his strongest attribute. With Brady distributing the ball, fantasy managers will likely find a better, more equal distribution to Evans’ fantasy production. 

Evans has a floor of a high end WR2 and the ceiling of a top five fantasy WR in the league. 

Chris Godwin: 

He was everyone’s fantasy darling last year to break out, and everyone was correct...very, very correct. 86 catches, 1333 receiving yards, and nine scores. My goodness. These are lofty expectations for almost any WR in the league, and Godwin produced those marks in just 14 games. Equally as impressive, Godwin ranked first in yards after catch at 574 yards. 

Throughout 16 weeks, Godwin was still the fantasy WR2 overall in points per game and total points at the position. All of this with the double edged sword that was Jameis Winston playing QB. 

Roughly half of Godwin’s snap share last season came from the slot. Brady loves to target his slot WR’s, and Godwin could be his best option to date. In early June, Bruce Arians was quoted as saying the Bucs base offense would be in 12 personnel. This is important to monitor as it could cause Godwin to play on the outside more if the Bucs often have two tight ends on the field. Even if 12 personnel is utilized more, Godwin will still be a target hog as I don’t foresee this as a move to feed more targets to O.J. Howard. Godwin is capable of still producing great numbers from the outside, and the Bucs should still run plenty of three WR sets, giving Godwin his due in the slot. 

The sky's the limit for Godwin, and he’s only 24 years old. You can expect he and Evans will continue to co-exist within this offense. It’ll be difficult for him to crack the top two spots at the WR position with Michael Thomas and Devante Adams respectively getting the massive target shares on their own teams. It’s hard to imagine a world where Chris Godwin doesn’t finish as a top 12 WR with his ceiling being in the top three at the position. 

The Choice: 

Regardless of format, both Godwin and Evans are stellar options for your fantasy squad. Almost every metric, however, says Chris Godwin is the better of the duo. I concur. On average, Godwin is going about half of a round in front of Evans in single QB leagues and he’s shown to be worth the premium pick. 

Don’t get me wrong, if someone selects Godwin, I’m not going to ignore Evans as he’ll still be great, and I’d be happy to draft him. With all things considered though, Chris Godwin is going to be a fantasy stud for years to come and a player I want on all of my fantasy football rosters. 

Sleeper Files: Ian Thomas

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Sleeper Files: Ian Thomas

By Tommy Harvey

Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

In 2018, Ian Thomas filled in for injured Greg Olsen and looked like a potential future TE1 for fantasy football players.  The Carolina rookie finished that season with 36 receptions, 333 yards, and 2 TDs.  The majority of those numbers came during the final five games (25 receptions, 246 yards, and 2 TDs).

Fast-forward to 2019...Greg Olsen was back as the Panther’s starting TE, and Thomas was back to being a back-up.  His targets regressed from 49 in 2018 to 30 and he became a fantasy afterthought.  

Now, headed into the 2020 season, Ian Thomas is the starter and Carolina is ushering in a new head coach (Ron Rivera), new offensive coordinator (Joe Brady), and new offensive scheme.  Joe Brady comes in, fresh off a national championship at LSU and he brings his RPO philosophy with him.  That same philosophy rocketed QB Joe Burrow to the Heisman Trophy and the number 1 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft.

That’s not all that is new in Carolina, as QB Cam Newton has moved on to New England and Teddy Bridgewater was brought in from New Orleans.  Bridgewater has several dangerous weapons to be a highly effective QB, but you’ll have to read Matt Kelley’s article on him.  

Greg Olsen signed with the Seattle Seahawks as a free agent in the offseason, and took 82 targets from last season with him.  Not all 82 targets will go Ian Thomas’ way, but he should see a good chunk of them.  

2020 Prediction and Fantasy Outlook:

50 receptions, 490 yards, and 5 TDs 

Part of my prediction for Thomas is his targets will increase from 30 to the 75 range.  If you go back and watch how Thaddeus Moss was used at LSU in 2019, Joe Brady likes to get his TE involved.  That is nothing new in Carolina, as Greg Olsen had a possible Hall of Fame career for the Panthers.  

Ian Thomas is currently being drafted as the overall TE22 on average, which is backend TE2 territory.  I see him finishing as the overall TE12 and backend TE1. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @dynastyprostom

Mid/Late Round Players that will Finish Top-12

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Players Drafted Outside the Top-12 that will Finish Inside the Top-12

by Bob Miller

 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Before Stafford had to be sidelined for the last eight games in 2019 due to a back injury, he was on fire. He threw for almost 2,500 yards, 19 TDs and only five interceptions. He was on pace to have a career-year, similar to 2011 when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. He is currently being taken outside the top-12 and should finish as a QB1 if healthy, easily making him a fantastic value pick, especially in Superflex leagues.

 

Ryan Tannehill: All Tannehill did last year after taking over in Week 7 was rack up fantasy points. In fact, from Week 7 on, the only QB to outscore Tannehill was Lamar Jackson. So why is he being drafted so low this year? Sure, he probably won’t repeat the same performance as last year, but he should put together another fantastic season with his rushing ability and weapons around him. With an ADP of 130 (#20 QB), he should drastically outperform his current price. At only 31 years old, he could be a nice bargain in dynasty leagues.

 

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben should be considered a back-end QB1 if he's healthy and firing on all cylinders. He is fully expected to be 100% and ready to roll for Week 1 and he's my favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. JuJu Smith-Schuster should also experience a nice rebound season after a 2019 to forget without Roethlisberger slinging him the rock. Roethlisberger, with all his weapons around him, should be a fantastic pickup late in your draft that can payoff big time.

 

Running Back

Kenyan Drake: Drake is in a high-octane offense that’s trending upwards and should put up insane numbers this season. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com states that Drake could get over 350 touches. Wow! There are a lot of great options in the top 10 RBs right now, but you can wait. Drake has legit potential to explode this season and a top-6 finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Cam Akers: There is rumor that the Rams backfield could be a RBBC, but LA wouldn’t have spent a 2nd round pick on Akers if they believed in Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown. We all know what a running back is capable of in this offense after watching Todd Gurley for the last few seasons. Even though the Rams have lost some guys on the O-Line, Akers is primed to be the early down back to start the season and could take over full time very quickly. It will be hard to keep him off the field, making him a double digit touchdown threat. He can definitely finish as a top-12 back.

 

James Conner:  There is no doubt that Conner is a fantasy stud...when he’s on the field. That’s the question. Can he stay healthy? Regardless, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Conner has proven that he can shine behind them. He is a contract year player and extremely motivated to stay in Pittsburgh. If Conner can stay healthy, he will drastically outperform where he's being drafted right now. Take full advantage, as the risk is worth the reward.

 

Todd Gurley: Just like in 2017, Todd Gurley can be a league winner again. Gurley is going to be given all the touches he can handle in this Falcons offense, if he can stay healthy. If he shows that he can handle a significant workload, he'll easily outperform his ADP in 2020. Atlanta has the 3rd easiest schedule this season, which makes Gurley hands down one of my favorite values.

 

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp: Cooper Kupp may end up being one of the biggest steals in your draft this year. He was incredibly productive through the first half of 2019. In fact, from Weeks 1-8, Kupp was the WR2 in all of fantasy football. He finished as the #6 WR in PPR with 94 rec, 1,162 yds, 10 TDs on 134 targets. With Brandin Cooks gone, Kupp could see over 150+ targets this year. As Jared Goff’s security blanket, especially in the Red Zone, it’s very possible that Kupp could finish as a top 3 WR in PPR Leagues this year. With a current ADP of WR15 (35th overall), Kupp is a steal at this price.

 

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: I know there’s a ton of hype around Hollywood this year, but it’s for good reason. He is the current #1 Wide Receiver in Baltimore’s offense. He showed what he was capable as a rookie with a bad foot hauling in 584 yds with 7 touchdowns on 46 receptions. Now imagine what he will do with a year’s experience under his belt, a healed and healthy foot, and a whole offseason working out with Lamar Jackson. He is primed to blow up this season. I have him projected to have 74 rec, 1,089 yds, and 9 TDs. That’s 239 PPR points, which would have been top 7 last season. Currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX, he could be a league winner this year.

 

Jarvis Landry: “Old Reliable” is what I refer to Landry as. Wait.. old? Nope. He’s only 27 years old. The same age as Michael Thomas and younger than DeAndre Hopkins, meaning Jarvis Landry has plenty of good years ahead of him. He may be coming off an injury, but he has never missed a game in his NFL career...Never. He averages 94 catches a year, so why is he being drafted outside the top 30 WRs? I have no idea, but I absolutely love it. He is a wonderful target in the mid-rounds, which gives you an opportunity to stock up on RB or QB (if you’re in a Superflex league). He is as close to a sure thing to have 80+ receptions this year as you can get. Like Hollywood Brown, Landry is currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX. He is a high end WR2 with WR1 upside in a Browns offense that should be improved.

 

Tight End

Blake Jarwin: Jarwin is finally free! Free from playing behind Jason Witten. He's in a great situation this season in a very dynamic and powerful offense. He’s very athletic and can stretch the field extremely well for a TE, which will result in some good chunk plays. He's going to see plenty of work and should be a back-end TE1 this season. Currently being drafted outside the top 20 TEs, Jarwin can pay off big time as a late round pick.

 

 

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is no sleeper by any means, and he is getting more hype as the season gets closer. This is a player with an ADP of the #21 TE a month ago. He has now creeped up into the Top 15. That’s still not bad, because he can still be the biggest surprise at TE this year. Hurst has a very good chance and path to finishing as a Top 5 option at the end of this season. Hurst is a tremendously talented tight end who is finally going to be given a full-time opportunity in Atlanta's dynamic offense. He will be a homerun pick in the later rounds of your draft. If you are in a dynasty league, go trade for him. You may have to pay more than you’d want, but it could still be a great bargain.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @DynastyProBob

ADP Early Values: AFC South

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ADP Early Values: AFC South

by Matt Kelley

We are now in July and folks are starting to turn on their spidey senses for fantasy football. If you’re reading this, those senses have probably already been on. We’ve talked NFC South value picks for where we are in the calendar year; let's shift our focus to the AFC South to talk about who you can snag at a value. As always, this article assumes a 12-team league and PPR scoring.

 

Houston Texans: Brandin Cooks

Well, the Texans certainly made some off-season noise, and it probably wasn’t what Texans fans were hoping for, when they shipped perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Deandre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson (there were some picks too, but...Deandre freaking Hopkins). That left the Texans with a pretty big hole at the wide receiver position. Brandin Cooks enters a WR corps that features Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb.

Cooks has four seasons in which he has compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards. Fuller, Stills, and Cobb have combined for one (Cobb, 2014). There are various reasons why that hasn’t occurred for these guys, but nonetheless Cooks comes into a situation with all of Hopkins’ vacated targets, Deshaun Watson - a quarterback in his prime, and by far the most accomplished WR. The Texans mark Cooks’ fourth team since entering the league in 2014.

His current ADP sits at WR 35, overall pick 73, in the top half of the sixth round. Teammate Will Fuller is going about ten picks before Cooks. Fuller has an electric connection with Watson when on the field but hasn’t started more than 11 games in the last three seasons, largely due to hamstring injuries. Cooks isn’t without risk as he has five documented concussions. The NFL has put more emphasis on concussions over the last several seasons, so it is worrisome that Cooks could be a hit away from leaving the field for an extended time.

By all accounts, Cooks has noted his health is fine, and he seems to be ready to forge on. If he can stay on the field, he’ll likely be an absolute steal at this point in a draft as there aren’t too many guys going this late with a proven 1,000 yard upside.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Marlon Mack

I know...and Jonathan Taylor, right? I know. Marlon Mack is currently going as RB 42, overall pick 113, in the top half of round 9. What I’ve taken away from the Colts coaching staff so far this offseason is that they believe this will be a committee situation in the backfield.

It’s no secret that Indy has a great offensive line, which is welcoming news to any RB and most likely more so to new incoming QB, Philip Rivers. With the offseason shortened, the Colts could turn towards the running game as a whole a bit more often while Rivers starts to settle in and develop chemistry. That said, Taylor will need to do the same to some degree.

I fully expect Mack to garner at least 60% of the touches through the first half of the year. Mack will certainly concede the passing down work to Taylor or Nyheim Hines. However, Mack is going about 70 picks after Taylor. With Mack having the early work (and likely being the starter for a large portion of the season), he could easily surpass RB42 value. In 26 games over the last two seasons, Mack has put up more than 1,900 yards rushing.

This isn’t a Frank Gore/Devin Singletary scenario. Plus in the last two seasons he’shad eight and nine touchdowns, respectively. I think Mack is still the go-to back at the goal line. He can be seen as a RB2 in the early portion of the season and also sustain weekly flex appeal throughout.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew II

I mustache you...do you like rushing quarterbacks? I know I do. Gardner Minshew had 281 yards rushing in 12 games last season - that’s about 21 yards a game. To some it might not sound like a ton, but in four point passing touchdown leagues, that comes out to an extra eight touchdowns over the course of a season...or it erases his fumbles from last season...however you’d like to look at it.

Minshew took over for Nick Foles last season, who went down pretty much out of the gate. It was a little back and forth with Foles and Minshew once Foles was back, but the Jags liked what they saw in Gardner (he’s also getting paid considerably less) and sent Foles to Chicago to compete with Mitch Trubisky. It was anticipated that the Jags would sign a higher profile backup or perhaps someone to compete with Minshew, but they really haven’t done that. Minshew goes into the season as the starter with no competition for his spot, a hopefully motivated Leonard Fournette, and a pretty good surrounding cast.

In fantasy drafts, he’s almost undrafted. He’s currently slotted in as QB 23, pick 223 overall - basically undrafted unless you have very deep rosters. If things don’t work out for Minshew, you really haven’t lost much in redraft leagues. Obviously in dynasty, you’d likely have an option ahead of Minshew or as your QB2 in SuperFlex leagues. The first two games for the Jags are tougher with the Colts and then on the road in Tennessee. After that though, the Jags get the Bengals, Texans, and Lions - all beatable defenses. If Minshew can limit his fumbles and get into the endzone on the ground a couple of times, he could be a great play in plus matchups and easily come in ahead of QB23.

 

Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith

I’ve already planted my flag and told you why you should draft Ryan Tannehill (you can find that from my earlier article on why he’s the real deal), so now I’ll let you know one of biggest reasons why he’ll be successful: his TE, Jonnu Smith. Smith is currently being drafted as TE 16, pick 154, the back of round 12. Now, if you’re drafting with me, Jonnu isn’t making it to the back half of round 12. Smith is option number two in the passing game behind A.J. Brown in this offense. The Titans obviously had a tale of two seasons last year. One with Marcus Mariota, and the other with the aforementioned Tannehill. From week eight forward, Smith saw at least four targets in six games. Not a ton of volume I’ll give you, but the Titans leaned on the monster that was Derrick Henry down the stretch...and who can blame them?

While the Titans are likely to run Henry for everything he has left in him this year, Tannehill proved to be efficient in this system, and both he and Smith will have a full off-season knowing they’re locked into starting roles. I’m not telling you that Smith is the next Mark Andrews or George Kittle, but I am saying he’s in an offense that is efficient (as he was at 12.5 yards a grab last season), and will have plenty of scoring opportunities. I think Smith could provide weekly upside to finish within the top six at his position and within the top 10 TE’s for the season.

You can follow me @ThatMattKelley

ADP Early Values: NFC South

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ADP Early Values- NFC South

by Matt Kelley

 

ADP. Average. Draft. Position. There’s almost nothing you’ll hear more about in terms of a
fantasy football draft between now and the kickoff of the NFL season. ADP can fluctuate
depending on your league type, scoring and league size. For the sake of this article, we’re going
to assume that the league is a 12 team, PPR, single QB, and a total of 16 roster spots (all ADP
in this article is based on Bestball 10’s 12 player leagues). Pretty standard league, a format
you’ll most likely play in if you’re reading this

.
As always, the goal in a draft is to take someone at an Average Draft Position that is most
beneficial. Let’s say you want Drew Brees as your QB. Nothing wrong with that, but you don’t
need to take him with your first pick. In fact, you probably don’t need to take him with your first
eight picks. If you wait eight picks and miss out on him, good news for you, someone has let
value at another position fall and you’ll still get a good QB. ADP should be used as a guide
throughout your draft to understand where players are typically going, not as a strict source to
say you need to take this player. Depending on what position you draft from you may be able to
wait on a certain player, you may need to reach to get your guy and both of those are okay.
Know your leaguemates if you can. Where they’re from, tendencies, and experience. All of this
can influence ADP.
Now that we’ve breezed by what ADP is, what it means, and how it’s used, let's look at some
fellas in the NFC South that should outperform their ADP.

Atlanta Falcons:

Russell Gage-- I know, how many fantasy relevant wide receivers can the Falcons have? Well,
I’m borderline saying three. We all know about Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley but if you didn’t
watch a lot of Falcons football last year, you may have missed out on Gage. Then again, if you
did, he may have won you a week here and there from the waiver wire. Gage is currently going
at pick 232-- 19th round-- i.e. free unless you’re in a really, really deep league. So while
technically you don’t need to draft Gage by ADP, he might be worth that late round flyer pick.
Mohammud Sanu was dealt to the Patriots and that role has been filled by Gage. From week
eight on, Gage saw at least four targets in every game. In games without Jones or Ridley, Gage
saw double digit targets in two games. In two other games with Jones and Ridley, Gage saw
nine targets. Gage totaled 70 targets from week seven forward. Austin Hooper vacates 97
targets (over 13 games) and I don’t think all of those are going right back to Hurst. If you haven’t
caught on by now, the Falcons throw the ball a lot. Normally you’d hear there’s too many
mouths to feed between Jones, Ridley, Hurst and Todd Gurley but, I think the volume is there
for Gage to have flex appeal on most any given week. He’ll be on the field in three wide receiver
sets so his snap share is capped but, should Julio or Ridley miss time, he’s an easy plug and
play. If you draft him, you can save your FAAB and not worry about fighting for him on the
waiver wire.

Carolina Panthers:

Christian McCaffrey-- ok just kidding. Actual Player: Ian Thomas. As mentioned in my Panthers
preview, Ian Thomas is now the TE in Carolina, no longer behind Greg Olsen. Ian Thomas is
currently going as the 18th TE off the board, pick 143 overall, top of the 12th round. He’s going
nearly 30 picks after Dallas Goedert who is the second TE on his own team. The top three TE in
fantasy seem to be pretty clear cut with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. There’s
some positions where I deviate from top players, TE isn’t one of them, these guys are to me, in
their own class. So if you miss out on these three guys, WAIT. There’s a ton of TE’s left after
those three and it's one of the most difficult positions to lockdown in fantasy, I know. Here’s the
thing though, Thomas walks into a role where the TE saw 82 targets last season in 14 games.
Nearly six targets a game. Carolina is in an entirely new regime with Matt Rhule and company
but, the offense should see an uptick in pace, which should mean more plays, which should
mean more opportunity. 80+ targets is well within the range of outcomes for Thomas. Thomas is
also going after guys like Hayden Hurst (whew, that hype train is starting to go off the rails),
Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, and T.J. Hockenson. Not to get too deep into the woods here
because we could be here all day but Thomas has a very real possibility to outperform all of
these players. Is there risk involved? Yea, we’re talking about a player in the 12th round. I think
Thomas will be worth your pick and worth the wait at the position and finish around TE 14, with
an outside shot to break into the top 12.

New Orleans Saints:

Emmanuel Sanders. I’m going to be real honest... I have buyers remorse from buying into a role
that has been unpredictable for fantasy managers over the years. Teddy Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith
(shudders), and Brandon Coleman. It’s been since 2016 since the WR2 on the Saints had
meaningful value and wasn’t just a shot in the dark (technically Michael Thomas was the two
that year with Brandin Cooks being the one, remember that?). So why is this year different?
Well, few things. The NFC South is absolutely loaded. Every one of those matchups has the
ability to turn into a shootout. Oh by the way, the Saints also face the Raiders, Lions, and the
Chiefs (good luck keeping up). Michael Thomas is largely, and rightfully so, considered the best
WR in the league. Attention will surely be devoted his way giving Sanders both the second best
defender on a team and often, in plus matchups. Emmanuel Sanders walked right into San
Francisco last season and got 97 targets on a team that threw the ball 476 times. The Saints
have been lower passing volume the last couple of years but the Saints should surpass the 500
attempt mark in what could be QB Drew Brees last season. If the Saints throw 530 times,
Emmanuel Sanders would need an 18% target share to see 95 targets. Both seem like fairly
reasonable numbers. Plus, Drew Brees is still hyper efficient. Manny Sanders has an ADP of
113, the middle of ninth round and the 47th WR off the board. While his upside is capped
because, well, Michael Thomas, Sanders can provide you with weekly flex value with occasional
WR2 upside. I’m going back to the well here, give me Manny Sanders!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady. It’s still weird that he isn’t a Patriot right? Gronk too. At this moment, you could say
both guys are a value but, let’s focus on Brady. Brady currently has an ADP of 122, the first pick
of round 10, and the 13th QB off the board. He’s teetering on QB1 territory here, so he’s a value
for now, we’ll have to see what this looks like in August. The Patriots have largely won off of
defense, short passes, featuring random running backs, and ‘Beli-checking’ everyone. At least
we think, right? Brady has actually thrown the ball at least 570 times the last three seasons. In
4pt per passing touchdown leagues, Brady hasn’t hit the 300 fantasy point mark since 2015.
He’s been a steady option, he just hasn’t necessarily provided league winning upside. Grant you
in 2016 he scored 258 points after his "Deflategate" suspension and he could have won folks a
league that year. This year though, Brady departs everything he’s ever known to a team that
has arguably the league's best wide receiver corps. He’s reunited with his buddy Rob
Gronkowski so there’s a familiar safety blanket for Brady assuming Gronk can stay on the field.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are absolute monsters and Brady’s best collective options in
years. Brady has quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last three seasons. As talked
about with the Saints, the Bucs are in this loaded NFC South and are going to have to put up a
lot of points. I expect Brady is currently being drafted at his floor with a ceiling of being in the top
8 fantasy quarterbacks. Think Jameis Winston numbers with a *few* less interceptions.

@ThatMattKelley