PPR

Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance

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Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance (Updated)

UPDATE: Per Adam Schefter, Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Schefter’s report was released at 4:22 pm on 8/25/2022, about 3 and a half hours before this article was posted. It is important to note that the trade does not change the following analysis. The only change is the potential for Lance to start if there is an injury to Dak Prescott. You may proceed as outlined.

The year is 2000. A young man walks into a fortune teller’s shop on his town’s main street. Not in the downtown area, but on the edge of town. The man sits down at the crystal ball and the fortune teller lays out the wildest tale. She tells the young man, an expectant father that he will have a son. That son will grow up to be a highly coveted quarterback. That quarterback will earn a starting position for his national champion college team as a sophomore, lead that team to a 16-0 record and another national championship, and throw 28 touchdowns that year without throwing an interception in 287 attempts. The boy would also rush for 1100 yards that season and add 14 more touchdowns. The young man is stunned.

The fortune teller goes on to tell the man that his son will enter the 2021 NFL Draft at the age of 20, and be picked by the San Francisco 49ers with the 3rd overall pick, after trading 2 first round picks and 2 other picks to move up and draft their guy. He will eventually grow into a man standing 6’4″, weighing 225 pounds, and running a 4.5 second 40-yard dash. Now the young father-to-be is bewildered. His son is going to be a superstar!

 

 

6 months earlier, a different expectant father goes into a different fortune teller’s shop. The fortune teller explains that HIS son is going to be 6’1″, run a 4.85 40, have an unheralded college career on a normal 4-year track, and be passed on in HIS draft 261 times, before the 49ers draft him to be a backup, maybe, and he’ll earn the nickname given the last pick, “Mr. Irrelevant.” This young father is also bewildered. He wanted a superstar. Now he’s convinced he’s got a palooka.

 

 

Neither fortune teller would see that 23 years later, the palooka would be announced as the starting QB for the 49ers, and the shine would be off of the superstar. The 49ers would be scrambling to figure out what to do with the product of their huge investment. YOU are also wondering what to do with that huge investment.

 

We have been in a Dynasty League holding pattern with Lance for, going on, 3 seasons. There is no new statistical analysis that can change that. Upside is the only argument to be made in Lance’s favor. It’s still a good one.

None of the events of the last three seasons have changed Lance’s POTENTIAL. He’s still the physical specimen that he was before, as noted above. He still has the same arm strength, the same foot speed and elusiveness, and the same brain that Kyle Shanahan dubbed highly intelligent.

He’s extremely intelligent. He knows how to handle situations. He knows how to carry himself. The guy that I see on tape that I tried to describe that I see such a natural quarterback, such a smart player.

Let’s look at Jordan Love, for an example. He is the same size as Lance, but as slow as Purdy. Love was drafted the year before Lance, and didn’t see the field as a rookie. He played sparingly in his next two seasons and has only seen regular season game action 10 times for the Packers. By every indication, however, he’s ready to start at age 24. He’ll turn 25 mid-season and Lance will be 25 just short of 2 years from now.

Lance has plenty of time to assume his final form. With his draft profile hampered by injury and team situation, he has an opportunity to add on to the improvements he’s made with his technique. He just needs reps. He’ll find them wherever he is because the NFL isn’t going to give up on him, and neither should you.

Buy low, sell high is the Dynasty mantra. This will be the lowest ever point for Lance’s value, until he retires.

 

 

Again, there is very little statistical basis to justify selling Lance. You could point to injury history or throwing interceptions against the Raiders in his first 2023 pre-season game. What it boils down to is that he doesn’t have a job, at the moment. He will be, for the time being, a roster suck. He won’t be startable in your lineup.

 

 

Rostered: depending on your league environment, Lance is a hold. If you have the roster depth to absorb a zero production wait-n’-see, wait it out. At this point, nobody wants him. Do not sell low.

Trades: Throw out offers, again if you can absorb the lack of production. If you can’t handle the roster spot, create a dynastyprosfootball.com Trey Lance alert and stay on top of the player news to scoop him off waivers as soon as he gets another opportunity.

Startup and Redraft: Avoid

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

By Bob Miller

 

As the NFL Draft approaches, dynasty owners wait with anticipation to see where these rookies end up. Where does Breece Hall end up.. how about Malik Willis? There are so many questions yet to be answered. One question that everyone seems to know the answer to is “Who is the overall RB1 in dynasty?” Jonathan Taylor seems to be the unanimous answer to that question, but I have my doubts. I know that may seem crazy, but here me out. It's obvious that buying Jonathan Taylor seems like a no-brainer. Not only am I going to give you some reasons to buy JT, but I'm going to give you some reasons to actually sell him as well.

 

 

Age

Taylor is entering his age 23 season and has his whole future ahead of him. Any educated Dynasty League owner knows that a running backs' dynasty value doesn't last very long. The younger the better. It seems that around that age 26-27 season is when we start seeing issues such as a declining skill set that results in the drafting of a younger, cheaper running back. The biggest issue as of late is their large cap number. Past stud running backs with these possible issues include Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. All of them could be traded or outright released this next offseason. With all that being said, it makes Jonathan Taylor worth that much more in dynasty.

 

Touches and Durability

Taylor is an unquestioned workhorse running back, which is rare these days. Some fantasy analysts had strong concerns that his usage in college would affect his performance/durability in the NFL. So far, those analysts have been wrong. In fact, last season Taylor had 372 total touches that included 332 carries and 40 receptions. His durability is not an issue as he has only missed one game in his two seasons so far. The sky could be the limit with Taylor running behind that elite offensive line in Indianapolis. You can plug him in as your RB1 for the next couple of seasons with very little concern. You can’t say that about many running backs these days.

 

 

 

Worst RB1 since 2015

This past season Taylor finished at 22.54 fantasy points per game.. the worst overall RB1 numbers since Devonta Freeman in 2015. Derrick Henry actually averaged 26.92 fantasy points per game last season before going down with his injury. In 2020 Taylor would have finished 4th behind McCaffrey, Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. Listen.. I’m not saying he stinks, but in PPR leagues, he just isn’t the unanimous RB1 to me. Although he should be a lock for 20 fantasy points a game, we could see Henry, McCaffrey, and Dalvin finishing ahead of him this coming season. Since this in dynasty, I still have JT ranked ahead of all three of those guys. With that being said, I can see a players like Najee Harris, Cam Akers, or Javonte Williams taking claim as the overall RB1 in PPR Dynasty this time next season.

 

Selling Price

With Taylor ranked as the dynasty RB1, it makes me wonder what I can get for him. That hype and dynasty ranking makes him more valuable than he may actually be. Why not dangle him out there and see if you can get a king’s ransom in exchange. I haven’t seen him move much in dynasty, however I have seen some incredible returns in the deals that I have seen. Just yesterday I saw Taylor traded for McCaffrey, Kelce, and Deebo Samuel. I’d take that all day. He was traded in another dynasty league I’m in for JK Dobbins, two mid 1sts, a 2nd, and a 2023 1st. Um.. yes please! After seeing these returns, I absolutely encourage you to see what kind of haul you can get for Taylor.

 

I’ve said this a million times.. I’m a businessman when it comes to dynasty. Not one player of mine is ever “off-limits”. I’m always in the business of making a profit when the opportunity presents itself. With that being said, don't trade Jonathan Taylor just for the sake of making a trade. We all have one of those guys in our leagues haha. Shop Taylor to see what you can get, and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. You’re not married to these guys, and everything can change with a snap of the finger, ask Christian McCaffrey owners. There is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping Taylor, as he should be a steady top 3-5 dynasty RB for the next few years. However if someone offers you the moon, smash the accept button.

 

 

You can follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBobFF

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

By Bob Miller

 

This offseason, we here at Dynasty Pros have produced a new series of articles titled “Dynasty Dilemmas”. It has been our most popular series to date. We give you an outside perspective on different players and answer the question “What do I do with this guy in my dynasty league? Should I sell high, buy low, or hold?”. The first player that came to my mind is perhaps the most intriguing name out there: Christian McCaffrey. 

 

The Reason to Sell

Last year there would have been very little debate on Christian McCaffrey. He was a fantasy stud, and anyone who had him considered themselves extremely lucky. Boy, how things can change in just a year. I am here to give you my personal opinion on what I would do with the man known as “CMC”.

 

Injuries

Well this is a layup. McCaffrey only played in three games in 2020, and seven games last season. That means he missed 23 of 33 possible games over the last two seasons. What's concerning to me is that these injuries were more ligament and soft tissue injuries. That scares me moving forward. If his hamstrings can't hold up we are in for yet another disappointing season ahead. That's just not going to cut it for a player that you have to spend a first-round pick on. Frankly I'd be scared to spend a second-round pick on him. 

 

Coaching

Panthers hired former Giants head coach Bob MacAdoo for their offensive coordinator position. Not the best news considering what a fantasy flop Saquon Barkley has been over the last couple of seasons. Who knows what kind of game plan they will put together on a weekly basis. Will they feed McCaffrey, pepper him with targets, or take a more conservative approach to avoid possible injuries? No matter the case, this is a situation we should probably try to avoid as much as possible. You can't win your fantasy league with your first round pick, but you sure as heck can lose your league because of your first round pick. Most of the CMC owners I have seen over the last couple of years have finished with some of the worst records of the season.

 

(Photo by: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images)

 

The Reason to Buy

McCaffrey is truly a one-of-a-kind player. There's not a player that comes close to what kind of production McCaffrey can give you. He is only 25 years old which means he could have several productive seasons still ahead. We all know his potential, especially in PPR leagues. Why would we not try to get this guy if we have the opportunity?

 

He is a League Winner

McCaffrey is as elite of a fantasy player as you can get. He has won a lot of people fantasy championships and money. His production, especially in PPR leagues, is second to none. 2019 McCaffrey finished with 471 fantasy points. Who was 2nd you ask? Aaron Jones, with 314 fantasy points. That is a substantial gap between first and second. That's what you call a League winner. When McCaffrey is on the field he has averaged nearly 30 PPR points per game over the last three seasons. It doesn't get any better than that. 

 

His Price Tag

Someone in almost every dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Christian McCaffrey. That’s what you like to see. If you are a serious Dynasty League player, then you should know that every player has a value of some sort. Whether that value is high or low, you may be able to find a use for almost anyone. A major part of dynasty strategy is buying low and selling high. If you can get McCaffrey at a big discount, why not look into it? Right now the reward actually may outweigh the risk. Getting him at a good discount right now is not the worst idea. He can only help you. You won't have much of an investment in him, and that's a good thing. If you roster him as your second RB or Flex, you're less likely to lose your season if something bad happens.

 

Verdict

I am a McCaffrey owner in several Dynasty leagues, and I have wrestled with myself on what to do with him over the last several months. After much thought I just can't allow myself to get burned again. Listen, I have no problem in someone acquiring McCaffrey at a big discount, and if you are a McCaffrey owner I have no problem with you holding him as well. With all of that being said my decision is to sell McCaffrey, but I am waiting for him to show everyone that he's healthy. Once the season starts, I will strike to maximize my profit. McCaffrey has already burned me twice. I will not allow it to happen a third time.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

by Bob Miller

 

Wow! Can this offseason get any crazier? There seems to be a trade, signing, or crazy rumor at all times right now. If you blink, you may miss something. The Kansas City Chiefs are a team that hasn’t been left out. They seem to be tied to every big free agent or some kind of rumor. They recently signed JuJu Smith-Schuster which I thought could cut into Hill’s production slightly, but now comes the BIG NEWS: Tyreek has been traded to the Miami Dolphins for multiple draft picks.

So this poses the question: What do we do with Tyreek Hill in Dynasty? Do we buy, sell, or hold?

 

Tyreek has dominated for several years now with Mahomes slinging him the rock, but he has a new quarterback and a new system to learn. Will he be used the same way he was in Kansas City? That’s a big question.

 

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa can’t sneeze without someone judging him, and for good reason. Miami has invested a lot into Tua as their Franchise Quarterback. Tua has to feel the heat. Miami was trying to land Deshaun Watson for a long time with no success. That can’t be sitting well with Tua.. just ask Baker Mayfield. Miami has given Tua everything he needs to be successful. They’ve given him an elite Left Tackle and a Superstar Wide Receiver. Tua has been wildly inconsistent so far, and that scares me if I’m a Tyreek Hill owner.

 

Production

One of my major concerns is that Tua Tagovailoa just does not have the arm strength to get the ball downfield to Tyreek. He will try, but I feel he will underthrow Tyreek too much. Let’s face it.. Most of Tyreek’s production came from chunk plays. Patrick Mahomes threw a lot of homeruns to the man. Mahomes would make amazing plays on a weekly basis by escaping a blitz or pass rush, scramble for a few seconds, and chuck the ball downfield to Tyreek for a huge play. This seemed to happen every single week. Tua Tagovailoa is no Patrick Mahomes, so I just can’t see Tyreek putting up those kinds of numbers again.

 

 

 

Tyreek Hill owners are in a panic right now. They have no idea what to do with him. I’m seeing a flurry of activity with Tyreek in my Dynasty Leagues already. These are my thoughts on why you should look into buying Tyreek right now.

 

You can get him at a discount

I’ve already seen a dynasty trade today that sent Tyreek to the other team for two 2nd round rookie picks. I’d take Tyreek all day at that price, maybe even a late 1st if I had a need at WR. Whatever the price for Tyreek is, it’s definitely a lot lower than it was this time yesterday. Tyreek’s production takes a hit no doubt, but he will still put up some numbers that could help your fantasy team. You shouldn’t be eliminating him altogether. 

 

Production

Listen.. Tyreek is still going to produce. He most likely will not produce the same numbers as he did in Kansas City, but produce nonetheless. With the money he’s making, Miami is going to target him often. I see a lot of screen plays for him which are easy PPR points. I could see him getting between 7-10 targets a game which could lead to around 5 rec per game. You multiply 5 x 17 games, and that’s 85 receptions. If this happens, how could he not flirt with 1,000 yards? Heck, Jaylen Waddle had 104 recs and 1015 yards in this offense last season. I’d take that any day.

 

As much as I like to buy players at a discount, I’m just too concerned on what to expect from Tyreek. The combination of Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Cedrick Wilson makes me doubt that Tyreek will be a WR1 ever again. You combine that with his poor character, and I could see Tyreek blowing up and becoming a problem for Miami down the road. In the end, there's just way too many questions and concerns to rely on Tyreek Hill being a weekly start in fantasy. 

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

by Tim Lazenby

 

The National Football League is one filled with a rich history.  When a feat is accomplished it is unlikely that it hasn’t been done already.  The NFL is actually over 100 years old and the merger that caused the league as we know it today was over half a century ago.  Needless to say, and understating the obvious, records aren’t easily broken and true history isn’t likely to be carved anymore.  But, it does happen.  One of these trailblazers still here is none other than Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

 

The Reason to Sell

Before last season, I don’t think there was any reason to have such a debate.  Lamar Jackson showed nothing but improvement and prowess; exactly the type of player you want leading your dynasty to the ultimate fantasy prize.  Questions of looming health and long term value have begun creeping in and it’s time to address the question of Lamar Jackson’s value.  Just what do we do with the quarterback from Louisville?

 

Poor Protection

Despite having many talents, we all know the greatest strength to Lamar Jackson’s game is his ability to run the ball.  The opposing team needs to change it’s whole defensive scheme to account for that one unicorn in Baltimore.  The sad truth is that a runner can only be as effective as his protection.  Defenses have not only brought more pressure each and every year Lamar has played, he’s payed the price in a higher sack rate as well.  Last season he was sacked an extra 40% more than he was in his MVP season.  His ineffective offensive line also forces his hand more.  Decisions to throw or not turn into a hurried run play due to lack of time and blocking.  How much longer can Lamar Jackson take the pressure until it plummets his fantasy football value? 

 

Lack of Receivers

Not every team in the NFL has the same talents and depth at positions as others.  Each and every team, no matter how strong, has weaknesses and one of the glaring ones in Baltimore is its lack of receiving depth.  Without a plethora of hands to throw to, Lamar is forced to funnel too many targets at Andrews and rush the ball more than he should.  Even back to college, he was a monster running the ball, but he was a very underrated passer.  The depth at Louisville didn’t consist of one target hog, making Lamar much more of a swiss army knife, rather than a running back playing quarterback; as he’s been called.  Until the Ravens bring in more talent to catch, Lamar will be penned in.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Name another quarterback like Lamar Jackson.  I’d be reluctant to name one; that’s for sure.  Although there are others who share elements of his game, Lamar Jackson is truly one of a kind.  Players like Kyler Murray have had flashes, but not like Lamar Jackson.  And rushing aside, his arm, vision and leadership are greatly underestimated.  Freshly turned 25, the sky is truly the limit.  We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what he can really do.  And with so many elite options at the position being a limited number, shouldn’t we pounce while we can?  Many would say absolutely.

 

Dual Threat

I’ve alluded to it many times, but if you didn’t know or have never seen him play, Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest running quarterback of all time.  Michael Vick really broke the mold first in this style, and Cam Newton continued the legacy, but Lamar has virtually perfected it.  Lamar is one of two quarterbacks to run 1000 yards in a single season, and Lamar has done it twice.  In fact, had he played a full season, he averaged to do it for a third time in a row.  In fantasy, points are hard to come by as a quarterback, so if you add rushing, they pile up that much faster.  Throughout his career, he’s never averaged less than double digits per game in rush attempts.  And last season, with less games played, he broke more tackles and had a better yards after contact ratio.

 

Proven Winner

Lamar Jackson has a history of reigning.  Although he’s yet to claim the Superbowl, in fantasy, we only care about the regular season.  In college, he won the Heisman Trophy, for MVP at that level, in only his sophomore season.  And fantasy managers were rewarded in his first full season in the NFL.  Lamar was so insanely good that he won the NFL MVP at only 22.  In fact, he was only the second player in league history to win the award unanimously.  There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson is the type of player who is not content unless he’s getting better every year.  When you think about making a move for a cornerstone dynasty player, what more can you ask for?

 

Verdict

I’ll admit it, despite all his success in college, I agreed with the Ravens waiting so long to draft him. Due to his play style, there are more risks involved; not just with injury, but learning how to let the plays evolve and making the smarter decision for the long term.  Looking back now, it’s insane that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen went significantly higher.  Baltimore even took tight end Hayden Hurst before drafting Lamar.  It just goes to show that evaluating talent at the NFL level is not an exact science.

 

Lamar Jackson is one of the best players, not only at his position, but in the entirety of the National Football League.  A truly unique specimen, Jackson is one to be sought after and envied by anyone who doesn’t have him.  I face this dilemma though.  If it were redraft, there aren’t too many quarterbacks I’d like more, but in dynasty, long term value is a considerable factor.  Rush first quarterbacks simply do not last as long as ones that are not.  I would rather have a dual threat quarterback, but at an equivalent price, I lean toward one that will last.  At his current price point in dynasty, it gives me no option than to consider selling, but the deal has to be right.  There has to be an elite quarterback gained in return, however I’m sure I can get one back with draft capital too.

 

.. as long as the price is right.

Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

by Ryan Ramsarran

 

Antonio Gibson was a very interesting prospect coming into the NFL. Believe it or not, he actually started his college career off as a wide receiver! He played a lot of special teams snaps, and ran many routes as a receiver before eventually starting to get some rushing attempts as well. Gibson has shown that he can be great both as a receiver and a rusher, giving him a very enticing draft profile. Teams are finding an increasing use for hybrid RB/WR type players in today’s NFL. Players like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler are some of the players that are used heavily in both the passing game AND the running game. Players like these are especially valuable in PPR leagues.

 

How has he fared in the NFL so far:

In Gibson’s first season, he ran for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns, and added 247 yards through the air. Gibson was a bit inconsistent in his rookie year-finishing 18th in total rushing yards among running backs. In his second year, he improved on the ground and rushed for 1037 yards and 7 touchdowns, and added 294 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. He capped the season off with a stellar performance where he rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Giants in Week 18. Gibson is in an interesting position fantasy wise as there are a lot of reasons to both BUY and SELL him. I’m going to go through both sides of the argument and then the final verdict.

 

Gibson has proven that he can be a three-down back and saw a big increase in rushing attempts from 12.1 attempts per game in 2020 to 16.1 attempts per game in 2021. A big part of Gibson’s struggles were a product of terrible QB play. Washington’s struggles on offense as a whole had them playing in a negative game script a lot of the time. Last week the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, and at this point, looks to be the starter come Week 1 of 2022. Although Wentz is not the greatest quarterback choice, he is definitely one of the best ones they’ve had in years. Wentz led the Eagles to a 11–2 record (before injury) back in 2017 and the Commanders are hoping for a fresh start that will help get him back to being the star that he once was. Gibson will have a lot more red zone opportunities- and rushing opportunities in general-if the offense as a whole is improved. The Commanders offense was 24th in the league in points per game (19.7) and in red zone attempts (50). Wentz led the Colts to being 10th in points per game (26.5) and 9th in red zone attempts (64) last year. Hopefully Wentz can revamp the offense which will greatly benefit Antonio Gibson. Gibson finished as the RB13 (PPR) in his rookie year and RB12 in 2021 and could very well make his way into the top-10 in 2022.

 

 

 

Gibson is a great player but he doesn’t get enough opportunities to shine. J.D. McKissic is used on a lot of the 3rd downs/passing downs and gets a lot of the receiving work. McKissic had 589 receiving yards in 2020, and was on pace for 614 receiving yards last year before missing the final 6 games of the season due to injury. In fantasy, PPR leagues especially, Gibson’s lack of opportunities in the receiving game is what is keeping him from being a true RB1. Last year, McKissic was second among running backs in fantasy points per opportunity at 1.27, whereas Gibson was 40th at 0.74. Gibson also has a problem with ball security. He had 5 dropped passes (tied for 6th among RB’s) and led all non-quarterbacks in total fumbles (6) and fumbles lost (4) last year.

 

 

2 weeks ago, J.D. McKissic agreed to a 2 year deal with the Buffalo Bills and Antonio Gibson RB1 season began! The fantasy football community was ecstatic thinking about Gibson getting a workhorse role. — Within 24 hours J.D. McKissic had a change of heart and took the exact same contract to return to the Commanders. Believe me, if McKissic did commit and sign with the Bills then this entire piece would have been about why Gibson is an absolute HUGE buy. However, I now think Antonio Gibson is a HOLD/possible sell (only for the right price) at this time. Holding him is my recommendation as he is a young and talented player and is clearly the lead back for the Commanders. With McKissic being back with the team for at least 2 more years, Gibson’s fantasy ceiling will be capped and hover around the high-end RB2/low end RB1 range. If you could sell him to someone who is willing to pay mid level RB1 value for him — do it, otherwise he is a firm HOLD.