Pittsburgh Steelers

Dynasty Dilemma: Pat Freiermuth

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Dynasty Dilemma: Pat Freiermuth

 

With the 55th pick in the 2021 draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Pat Freiermuth in the second round. The 6’5” 258-pounder out of Penn State had some excellent college tape. Over his 3 year career at Penn State, he had 92 receptions for 1185 yards and 16 touchdowns; that is even more impressive knowing the quarterback play at Penn St. was subpar. 

 

Pittsburgh selecting Freiermuth was the best fit for him. The organization has a strong history of identifying and developing talent that goes less regarded in the draft; examples includer, Heath Miller, Hines Ward, and Antonio Brown. Kyle Pitts was drafted 51 picks before Freiermuth by the Atlanta Falcons. Even though Freiermuth had similar stats in college, the Steelers were able to draft him in a position with less focus and scrutiny than Pitts. 

 

RESON TO BUY

     Freiermuth’s stats in his rookie season were 63 receptions for 732 yards and 2 touchdowns with Ben Roethlisberger. Although a Hall of Fame quarterback, Roethlisberger in his last year was a shell of himself. By the end of the season, Freiermuth found his legs as a rookie and started becoming Ben's security blanket. Roethlisberger would then retire, and in 2022, Freiermuth notched 60 receptions, 497 yards, and 7 touchdowns; catching passes from Mitchell Trubisky (5 games), and rookie Kenny Pickett (12 games).

 

Freiermuth is the clear #1 tight end on the Pittsburgh Steelers roster. The tight ends behind Freiermuth on the depth chart are Zach Gentry, Darnell Washington, Rodney Williams, and Connor Heyward. Heyward primarily plays fullback. Rodney WIlliams has 1 year of experience but has yet to enter a game and may land on the practice squad or be cut. Zach Gentry and Darnell Washington are the other players on the team that are vying for playing time. Washington had a lot of pre-draft hype and some draft experts thought he may be one of the first tight ends selected in the draft. However, he fell to the Steelers at the 93rd pick in the draft. Gentry is a better blocker at this point and is a seasoned veteran. 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

While Pat Freiermuth has missed only one game in his career, he has had three concussions in the NFL. The handling of Tua Tagavoila’s injuries last year highlighted how some head injuries are treated and has brought attention to when to allow players to return to the field. The NFL has made equipment changes to helmets that seem to be helping concussions happen less frequently.  The NFL has also changed many contact rules that help protect defenseless players. 

 

In addition, the NFL uses independent medical professionals to assess a player's readiness to return to the field. In all, the risk of head injuries is still there and with Friermuth having had 3 concussions, the likelihood of a recurrence is high.

 

In his first two seasons, Freiermuth has proven to be very consistent.  However, if Freiermuth wants to ascend from the Top 10 into the Top 5 of tight ends, he will have to gain more yards. He has great hands and is capable of getting open as he continues to perfect his craft with 2nd-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. 

 

VERDICT

As the DynastyProsFootball Superflex Dynasty Rankings say, Freiermuth is the 7th best tight end. In Sam Waldorf’s (DynastyProsFootball Contributor) rankings, he has Freiermuth at 9. I advise checking out both resources for all your ranking needs. 

 

Freiermuth’s current Average Draft Position (ADP) on Sleeper is 97. 

 

I am buying Freiermuth everywhere at his current ADP. If we look at the last two years of his fantasy production, his current ADP is undervaluing his impact. Comparing the tight ends being drafted ahead of Freiermuth, you are getting a discount for the number of fantasy points he produces. Freiermuth has 180 and 181 fantasy points averaging 180.5 points over the last two years. 

How are Tight Ends performing that are being drafted ahead of Pat Freiermuth?

 

Evan Engram, with an ADP of 90, is averaging 166.5 points per season. 

Darren Waller, with an ADP of 73, is averaging 130 points per season.

Dallas Goedert with an ADP of 63 is averaging 185.5 points per season.

Kyle Pitts with an ADP of 33 is averaging 152.5 fantasy points per season.

 

Based on this data, the only tight end performing better and being drafted ahead of Freiermuth is Dallas Goedert.  The other tight ends will cost more in draft capital but are not providing managers with the same point production.

 

Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller may possess the more big-play ability, but our current NFL landscape still cannot shake a security blanket that the tight-end position has provided over the years to quarterbacks. Pat Freiermuth is the security blanket for Kenny Pickett. 

 

In redraft formats, do not break the bank to draft George Kittle or Kyle Pitts in the 3rd round when you can get Freiermuth in the 10th. 

And, If you do not currently roster Freiermuth in dynasty formats, open up communication with that manager to make a deal.

If you can trade for Freiermuth by sending a 2nd-round and 3rd-round rookie picks, I advise smashing that deal. I would even go as far as increasing the offer to two 2nd-round rookie picks.

 

Pat Freiermuth is an undervalued commodity at the tight-end position. You should run, not walk, to acquire his fantasy production for your team right now!

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Diontae Johnson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Diontae Johnson

By Dylan Schroeder

Sometimes I feel like I’m doing my best impersonation of Adam Sandler’s character, Stanley Sugerman, from his movie Hustle. A passionate has-been that uses his knowledge of the game that he used to play to scout talent. As I’m no longer connected to the game of football as a player, it’s fair to say that I’m all sorts of washed up – certainly athletically – and now use dynasty to help keep me connected to the game. 

While Sugerman was routinely sitting courtside, slouched over the coffee cup wrapped tightly inside of his hand, I’m presently slouched over a keyboard with a Red Bull nearby, combing through the dynasty “Lost and Found” bin to find oversighted, forgotten, or even misguided talent. 

And, yes, I’ve done it. I’ve found my “Bo Cruz” – the player that I’m willing to attach my legacy to. For those who have followed me for even a sliver of time, it should be of no surprise who that player is. My guy, Diontae Johnson, is far from washed up and deserves much higher praise from the dynasty community than he has been receiving. Not even Buc Nasty could hate this much. Hate! Hate! Hate! Hate!

 

 

 

 

For years now, Diontae Johnson has been a polarizing guy to the masses, and I do not understand it. At nearly every single turn of his young career, he has grossly out-performed expectations, yet he is routinely mistreated by mainstream football fans. 

The former Toledo product was the 10th receiver taken in the 2019 NFL draft, and since then, he has recorded more receiving yards than everyone in his class not named for AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, or Terry McLaurin. He has also found a way to earn – yes, EARN –  more targets and receptions than anyone in the class over that same timespan. Regardless of how you want to split it, he has overachieved his career expectations by quite a bit.

In fact, since coming into the league, Diontae Johnson ranks in the top ten in receptions (8th) and targets (5th) for all NFL receivers. 

 

Diontae Johnson ADP vs. Fantasy Finish (PPR)

Year:

ADP:

Fantasy Finish: 

Difference:

2023

WR32

?

?

2022

WR16

WR28

-12

2021

WR21

WR8

+13

2020

WR39

WR21

+18

2019

WR156

WR39

+117

 

The 2022 season was the first time in Diontae’s career that he didn’t grossly out-perform his preseason ADP, and as a result, the dynasty community has completely lost their minds.

For those who aren’t watching games each Sunday with their eyeballs removed from their sockets, Diontae Johnson is easy to see as a hyper-talented player, and he passes the eye test with flying colors.

He’s nearly untouchable at the line of scrimmage because of his short area quickness, start-stop explosiveness, and a package of releases that leave cornerbacks grasping at thin air. There’s a level of versatility to his game that has rewarded opportunities within the offense to line up in different locations, show off a diverse route tree, and receive a nearly unprecedented amount of targets. 

But to put it simply, Diontae Johnson creates separation at each level of the field with a higher success rate than most, regardless of the coverage. 

If for some reason you’re struggling to see his talent, Diontae also smashes advanced statistics and analytical profiles like the great Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. His track record shows that he has emerged into someone who is on the edge of mastering the art of separation.

 

 

According to PlayerProfiler.com, even in an appalling down year, Diontae Johnson ranked top 20 in target share, target rate, snap share, air yards, deep targets, and expected fantasy points per game. He was simultaneously top 10 in metrics such as total routes, route participation, red zone targets (!!!), and unrealized air yards. 

While the entirety of the Pittsburgh offense struggled throughout the year, given the circumstances, the largest disappointment was the evaporation of Diontae Johnson’s touchdowns. For someone who has shown he kinda-sorta had a nose for the end zone, it was shocking that Johnson never ONCE found paydirt.

 

 

I get that you can’t just ignore what happened, but as the above tweet shows, this is a complete statistical anomaly. You can run the simulation on the 2022 NFL season 100 times, and this might be the only time Johnson comes up scoreless. As a result, Diontae’s dynasty value has completely shriveled up and has presented a tremendous opportunity to buy the stock of a great talent. 

I promise his value is going to spike next season when we look up after week 1 and he starts the year with 8-112-1. Collectively, those within the dynasty community that have tarnished Diontae’s reputation will be punching the air. 

If Diontae had just hit his average (6.7 touchdowns) from his previous three seasons – without even counting additional yardage from those plays –  he’s sitting as the WR16, which is ahead of players like DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, and Chris Godwin.

 

 

I’ll admit, I didn’t think moving from Ben Roethlisberger’s corpse to Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett was going to be as problematic for Diontae as it turned out to be. Initially, like many others, I figured either quarterback’s arm talent would be, at minimum, as strong and accurate as what we saw from Roethlisberger in his final season. While that point can be debated, the biggest difference I overlooked was the processing differences between the quarterbacks, and how that would disrupt the quality of Diontae’s targets and scoring opportunities. 

Roethlisberger, obviously, was elite at recognizing advantages pre-snap and adjusting in ways that helped extend drives, score more points, and most importantly for this argument, find Diontae in easy, meaningful ways. While Trubisky and Pickett still found Diontae at a wildly high rate, the quality of those targets weren’t the same. Both the pre and post-snap processing shrunk the reliability and electricity of the offense. 

It wasn’t just Diontae that struggled, either. The Pittsburgh wide receivers only had five total touchdowns on the year. Pat Freiermuth only had a couple. They were in-and-out of sync with the QB-carousel, but now will have some consistency there behind Pickett and an improved offensive line – spoiler, they’re drafting a tackle in round one. 

As we’re rolling closer and closer to the 2023 NFL Draft, it feels that Diontae is trapped inside of the “lost and found” bin that I alluded to earlier. While it doesn’t take much to pluck him off of an opposing roster, I question what you’re going to find that’s better than him with the assets you’re holding onto? 

 

 

The largest looming issue with Diontae Johnson is the fear that his teammate, George Pickens, has overtaken his position on the team as the undisputed, top wide receiver. 

While advanced statistics suggest that Diontae is still in fact the top dog, there’s belief that Pickens will surpass him in his second season. Second-year receivers make jumps to greatness pretty frequently, so it isn’t crazy to think that what we saw from Pickens last year is just a small taste of what the future holds.

As a rookie, George Pickens commanded 84 targets and found a way to get loose for just over 800 yards and 4 touchdowns. He dazzled us with incredible contested-catches and showed a routine ability to make big plays down the field. His 15.6 average depth of target ended up being the third best in the league, and was a role he dominated from the jump! 

 

 

However, Diontae has shown in the past that he can still be a high-end player while sharing the receiver room with another co-star. In 2020, JuJu Smith-Schuster saw 97 receptions on 128 targets and was still outdone by Diontae. In 2021, Diontae earned 107 catches on a whopping 169 targets alongside the much anticipated second-year-breakout of Chase Claypool. The Claypool project crashed and burned before being shipped off to Chicago, but once again, Diontae survived the allegations surrounding his ability. 

While George Pickens certainly looks to be on his way toward being a legitimate, contributing young star in the league, there are several examples throughout the NFL where duos co-exist and even help each other from a fantasy perspective. The only thing that could become worrisome for Diontae is if Pittsburgh for some reason reached on a round one or two wide receiver that could cut into his piece of the pie. While they have a need at the position, I think it'd be wiser to find a compliment to Johnson and Pickens later on in the draft, rather than ignoring some team needs for another young, exciting splash pick early on.

A different reason to consider moving Diontae is that his top 10 performance in 2021 might end up becoming an outlier in comparison to the rest of his career. When we're looking at his situation, there's obviously a scenario where the offense doesn't take the step forward that's projected and he sputters in his ADP for the second year in a row, which would make the WR1 season from 2021 feel like something way into the distant past. 

While it’s not impossible for Diontae Johnson to return to that top 15-ish status that we know he's capable of, there are many factors that could get in his way preventing him from returning to that ceiling. Maybe the best move for your dynasty roster is to find a manager or two that still believe in Diontae for the reasons described a hour ago into this reading, and you can flip him for some budding assets or combine him with a piece to level-up your receiver room. 

 

According to KeepTradeCut.com and FantasyPros consensus dynasty rankings, some of the following receivers each have a higher dynasty ranking than Diontae Johnson: Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Treylon Burks, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison. 

I have a huge issue with several of the names on the list being ahead of Johnson. Sure, you can talk me into a couple, but how many of these players have yet to step onto a NFL field, and project to be a player of Diontae's caliber? How many of these players just finished their first NFL season and weren’t able to compete in 10 or more games, let alone display the production profile that we’ve seen from Diontae? How many of these players are clinging to their first productive, relevant season and have used it to catapult up the rankings?

Few, if any, can be argued to that they are in a more secure role or are equally talented to Johnson. Even less on this list project to go to a realistic situation where they're going to have the opportunity to see 100+ targets per year, let alone 140. 

It’s unlikely you come across another 26-year-old receiver at this price, who over the last 3 years ranks 5th in targets, 7th in receptions, and 17th in yards. Diontae Johnson is currently outside of the consensus top THIRTY at the position. It’s criminally low. Some folks are going to lose their jobs when he receives positive-touchdown-regression and the Steelers’ offense improves from where it was last season. He's going to absolutely SMASH the current expectations because the talent of this player didn't disappear, just the touchdowns. 

I'm willing to trade the 1.08 or later for Diontae Johnson + X asset, and depending on my roster build and situation, I'd consider moving the 1.06 or 1.07 for Diontae + X and Y. I'm also willing to trade any player listed above (and more) for Diontae + X asset. He's potentially my number one buy this offseason, and I'm trying to get as much exposure as possible. 

 

Three’s Company? 

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Three's Company? 

By Joe Goodwin

At this point in the fantasy football cycle, you are probably being overloaded with the amount of information that is available to you.  One article claims a player is a “league winner,” while another puts that same players on the “Do Not Draft” list.

Needless to say, conflicting information can be troublesome for most fantasy managers.

A fantasy point that always gives me pause is the idea that an offense can have multiple high-end fantasy producers all on the same field.

I looked into that very premise to determine if that is true or not.

Last year, I found 2 examples of a fantasy explosion (3 receivers in the top 36 and a RB in the top 24) from one team:

Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR5, 305 pts), Tee Higgins (WR24, 219 pts), Tyler Boyd (WR31, 183 pts) and Joe Mixon (RB4, 288 pts).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR9, 262 pts), Chris Godwin (WR15, 242 pts), Rob Gronkowski (TE7, 171 pts) and Leonard Fournette (RB6, 343 pts).

I should also mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers were very close to qualifying for this study:

Diontae Johnson (WR8, 274 pts), Chase Claypool (WR37), Pat Friermuth (TE13) and Najee Harris (RB3, 300 points).

So, with these examples, can we predict whether these teams can produce in that same manner:

Las Vegas: DaVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Najee Harris

Philadelphia: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Know, Devin Singletary

Denver: Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Javonte Williams

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook

Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon

With the 2 teams that accomplished that feat last year, both were led by top tier quarterbacks Tom Brady (QB3) and Joe Burrow (QB8) with offenses that finished 2nd and 7th respectively in total points and 1st and 7th in passing yards.  And, each team had a run game that was overall in the bottom 10 of the league (Tampa Bay was 25th and Cincinnati was 22nd)

So, with all that being said, what key elements are we looking for in order for a team to support 3 top 36 receivers?

Key Point 1: A team with the requisite 3 receivers to achieve Top 36 WR or Top 12 TE

Key Point 2: Top Tier QB 

Key Point 3: Overall Offenses that finish in the top ten in total points and passing yards

Key Point 4: Run Offense is bottom 10 of the league

As we analyze each team and how they relate to each key point, let’s see where we stand:

Oakland: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{I’m sure some would argue that Carr is a top tier qb, but are you drafting him in your top 8 qb’s?}

Pittsburgh: Point 1, Point 4

{Pitt has the weakest qb and middle of the pack offense}

Philadelphia: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{Jalen Hurts will have to prove he can be top tier first}

Buffalo: Point 1, Point 2, Point 3

{Run game is strong on Buffalo}

Denver: Point 1, Point 2

{Hard to project with the massive upgrade in QB in the offseason on where the offense will finish; Seattle was middle tier in offense stats}

Minnesota: Point 1

{This is not a dart at Cousins, more like a “wait and see” approach with the new offense}

Cincinnati: Point 1, 2, 3, 4

{Let’s hope the improved offensive line helps continue to the trend}

Based on this data, the four teams most likely to support 3 top 36 receivers are: Cincinnati, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo.  

So, if you try to convince yourself to draft Jeudy from Denver or Claypool from Pittsburgh later in your draft in the hopes they can pay off….chances are more likely they will not.

And, if you want to wait a few rounds and grab a receiver like DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd after the 7th round, chances are good they may hit as a top 36 receiver.

Remember the numbers don’t lie!!  Only 2 NFL teams supported multiple fantasy starters in one lineup last year and most likely, that trend will continue again this year.

 

As always, “Come and knock on my door” if you need any fantasy help @JGoody77 on Twitter

 

Dynasty Dilemma: George Pickens

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Dynasty Dilemma: George Pickens

by Doug Harrelson

 

The preseason is finally here and in motion. For us in the dynasty community, this means our first chance to see the rookie prospects we have been talking about for the past six months. It gets hard to control our excitement whenever we get our first action with the shiny new toys from our rookie drafts. One of the players this season that has generated the most buzz this August is former Georgia Bulldog and current Pittsburgh Steeler WR George Pickens.

 

The upside of landing a young, high end WR, can put your dynasty team in a position to be a consistent contender. High end, young WRs like Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb are so expensive to acquire. The best time to get high potential WRs is now.. before they soar to an unattainable price. With that being said, this could be the last opportunity to buy Pickens with the price still reasonable.

Big Athlete with High Upside

Pickens athletic profile is that of a true alpha WR at the NFL level. The kind of prospect that normally goes early in your rookie drafts. When you watch his college tape you see a man amongst kids out there as he bullies DBs. His first preseason game gave us two highlights of him showing the same thing after a gorgeous toe tap in front of the back corner pylon and a block that sent the Seattle CB straight onto his back in a shameful manner.

Landing Spot and Draft Capital

There is a large correlation between draft capital and future fantasy success. Day two of the NFL Draft in particular, has always been a great source of fantasy production at the WR position. Selected with the 20th pick in the 2nd round as pick 52 overall to a team that has a proven track record of drafting the WR position is the kind of thing dynasty managers are looking for. A team that also has a history of handling players with more volatile personalities in the past. This landing spot might have been the best possible place for a personality like Pickens.

 

Selling during preseason hype is often a strong move made by savvy dynasty managers. The combination of basic defenses and backups makes success in the preseason easier to achieve compared to the regular season. With the amount of hype being generated, you can probably find a manager that will give you much more than you invested into acquiring Pickens. You can easily turn the 1.09 in 2022 into a 1st in 2023 plus another young player you are high on, maybe even one drafted ahead of Pickens in the same rookie draft. These kind of profitable moves over the long haul increase to total value of your team and help you build super teams.

Maturity

The expression “he got that dog in him” has been thrown around all over dynasty twitter for the past few days as a feature in Pickens’ game. This is not always a great thing. In Pickens freshman year at Georgia he was ejected from a game and then suspended for the 1st half of the next game. That next game ended up being in the SEC Championship Game against No. 2 LSU. There were also reports coming out before the draft that NFL teams questioned his maturity and did not love his combine interviews. Players can succeed in the league with big personalities and teams are more forgiving with big time talent but there does come some risk. A poorly timed suspension in your fantasy playoffs could be a disaster, not to mention the risk that he just gets cut one day because the league decides his talents aren’t worth the hassle.

Injury History

Pickens lost most of his Junior season at Georgia due to a torn ACL from the spring. He was able to make a recovery and play at the back end of the season but still a thing to keep in mind. Injuries are always a part of football and therefore always a part of fantasy. Any injuries before stepping into the NFL should always be noted, the human body can only take so much in a career.

 

There is a good case to buy him in your league if the price is not too much as well as a good case to sell if you can get a piece that fits your roster construction better. Holding seems like the strongest play at this point. You probably have to offer a 2023 1st and something to get the deal done at this point when in May you could have traded that same 1st for the late 2022 1st to draft George Pickens and probably get some extra for it. If the price is just a 2023 1st, pull the trigger but the price feels like it’s gonna be higher in most leagues.

Selling is an option if you need help in another position group, I recently sold him in a SuperFlex league for Kenny Pickett and a 2023 2nd in a league where I needed another QB quite badly. I’ll admit, not the best trade but I am loaded at WR while needing another arm at QB in that league. I also like maybe packing him up with some picks to go for one of the big name WRs if you have a pretty complete team already. Think Pickens and some draft picks for Jefferson or Chase. I’ve also seen him get sold for Elijah Moore and a 1st so don’t hesitate to see if you can get a big overpay. Anyone can truly be a sell if the buyer is desperate enough.

 

AFC North Predictions

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AFC North Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

Heading toward 2022 faster than we all think, each team in the NFL has the chance to repeat greatness or correct disaster.  Whether you finished dead last or won the Lombardi Trophy, each team begins anew with an unscathed record.  As we look at the AFC North, it is a division ripe with rivalry and storylines.  Let’s attempt to figure out how each team will do for the upcoming season.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Last season the Baltimore Ravens were decimated with injuries.  Looking ahead, a healthy, albeit unhappy, Lamar Jackson is crucial to the team’s success.  Arguably the best tight end in the league on your team doesn’t hurt, and let’s not forget about promising JK Dobbins coming back from injury himself.  The worry is that even though there are high hopes for Rashod Bateman, the receiving group is among the least tested in the entire NFL.  

 

Situation to watch

All eyes are on Kyle Hamilton when it comes to draftees from the Ravens this off season, and why not?  He fell so far, the value was insane.  But I’m even more interested in fellow first round pick, Tyler Linderbaum.  With Bradley Bozeman leaving for Carolina, Eric DeCosta drafted just what the doctor ordered.  The only thing holding Linderbaum back is his size but thankfully, putting on weight is a lot easier than putting on talent.

 

Conclusion

If I’m being honest here, I don’t see how the Ravens only get 9 wins if the team stays healthy, but I have to stand by my assessment.  I see some key losses early on and a bad stretch to end the season.  Until they can do better against their own division, it’s not going to look pretty.  That being said, I can still see them in the playoffs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Record in 2021: 10-7-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 12-5-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

I can still hear, “WHO DEY” in my sleep.  Talk about fans coming out of the woodwork.  When it comes to offenses, there aren’t many higher powered than the Bengals.  Once Burrow and Chase reunited, they didn’t look back.  But I can’t remember such a bad offensive line carrying their team so far as they did for the Bengals last season.  And even though it’s vastly improved, you wonder if it’s enough.

 

Situation to watch

As I mentioned before in the glaring weakness for the Bengals, the offensive line needs to improve drastically for further success.  While Joe Burrow is fantastic, he’s not a magician.  Getting sacked 70 times last season had to take a toll.  And while the Cinderella run was awe inspiring, if this situation is not corrected, there will be no ball next time; just disappointed mice and a smashed pumpkin.

 

Conclusion

My prediction for this team is quite believable considering what they accomplished last season.  The offensive talent is brimming over the edge, but let’s not forget about the unheralded defense, with the secondary in particular.  While fans are probably still jeering poor Eli Apple, players like Chidobie Awuzie and Mike Hilton are at the top of their game.  I have no doubt that the Bengals take the AFC North again, only this time it will be with more authority.

 

Cleveland Browns

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

When it comes to the Cleveland Browns, the running game led by Nick Chubb is among the best in the NFL.  Possibly the best pure runner in the league, when paired with a healthy Kareem Hunt, it can be mesmerizing.  The highly polarizing arrival of Deshaun Watson will bring a new era, but it comes with its own drama.  Changing the team’s identity is not a task easily performed.

 

Situation to watch

The first fully healthy season from Myles Garrett since 2018 did not disappoint.  While names like TJ Watt, Aaron Donald and Micah Parsons are spoken of so often as elite defenders, (and rightfully so), so many forget to mention Garrett.  He needs to receive more praise for what he does each season.  On a side note, I’d also love to see a full season from Denzel Ward and Jadeveon Clowney.

 

Conclusion

I can’t wait for the day when I don’t see a drama headline about either Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield when it comes to Cleveland.  I see this team underachieving, not due to a lack of talent, but due to the noise.  If they can settle down and just play football, they have the tools to contend for the division, but it doesn’t seem likely for 2022.  Another year, it seems, of middling progress before they find their footing awaits.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record in 2021: 9-7-1  

Predicted Record in 2022: 11-6-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

When it comes to the strengths of the Steelers, Najee Harris leads the charge and don’t forget about underrated Diontae Johnson at receiver.  But as we all know, the quarterback situation is quite uncertain.  It’s coming down to last chance Mitchell Trubisky or fresh from the draft Kenny Pickett.  While neither are expected to be Big Ben, it’s worrisome in these uncharted waters.

 

Situation to watch

Obviously, as we just discussed, the situation to watch is the quest to find the heir apparent for Roethlisberger.  And even if it is decided eventually, I can’t see it being right away.  Yinzers will have to hold their breath as they eagerly await the captain to steer this ship.  After all, the last time Big Ben wasn’t the starter it was Tommy Maddox leading the charge.  It just feels strange to see anyone else, but we must press on.

 

Conclusion

Much like the Ravens, my prediction for the Steelers surprises even me.  In my heart of hearts, there has to be regression, but based on my calculations, it’s actually looking upward for Steel Town.  In order for this to happen, there can’t be any wasted time.  The defense must carry the team until the starting quarterback emerges.

AFC North Best Values

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AFC North Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Isn’t dynasty the best format for fantasy football?  I don’t know why anyone plays any other version.  There’s just something about managing a team that will be with you for as long as you see fit.  And while some like the “reset” that each new year brings in redraft, I’ll never understand the appeal of losing what I worked so hard to get.  No matter what type of fantasy football you choose to play, finding values is essential.  For those of us who play dynasty, we can pretty much make moves whenever we want, so this is a big advantage over those who hibernate from fantasy football in the offseason.  Today, let’s delve deep into the caverns of the AFC North to look for the best value player each team has to offer.  This is my second favorite division, so I’m excited.

 

Baltimore Ravens:  Wide Receiver - Marquise Brown

If we’re being honest, the Baltimore Ravens overall are underrated.  Aside from Mark Andrews, many of their skilled players just aren’t given the respect they are due in drafts and trades.  So finding values is a lot easier on this team than others.  The only issue is picking the best value in Baltimore, and for me it has to be Marquise Brown.  While so many are flocking to Mark Andrews when it comes to seeing talent, don’t be foolish and overlook Hollywood.  In fact, among wide receivers, he’s one of the better values in the entire National Football League.

Marquise Brown, despite all his talent, will always be seen as that guy who is the team’s top wide receiver, but one that will always struggle for consistency.  Whether it is Mark Andrews taking so many of Lamar’s targets or the butter fingers that Brown showed last season, not many have the faith that they should in Baltimore’s top wide receiver.  If I’m being completely honest, will Marquise Brown be a top ten wide receiver next season?  The answer is not likely.  But that doesn’t mean that he won’t be a solid WR2 with upside for a WR1.  And if one more person tells me that Rashod Bateman is taking over, I might lose my marbles.  Make no mistake, not only will Marquise Brown be a steal for you, he’s the best steal on the Ravens roster.

 

Cincinnati Bengals: Tight End - Hayden Hurst

I can still hear “who dey” in my sleep after last season’s Super Bowl appearance for the Cincinnati Bengals.  I’m not sure where all these fans came from, but they sure did make an appearance.  I am a little biased here as the Bengals are my second favorite team, but if you don’t at least own a piece of this offense, you are doing yourself a great disservice.  It would make sense to put the likes of Tyler Boyd or even Tee Higgins here, as many seem to forget anyone other than superstar Ja’Marr Chase are in Cincinnati, but I’m going to suggest Hayden Hurst as the best value here.

I know it sounds crazy to say it.  After all, despite being a first round draft pick by the Ravens, he hasn’t had the success that Baltimore predicted when they took him before they even took Lamar Jackson.  And his time in Atlanta certainly didn’t bear fruit, so why believe in him now?  If you saw what Joe Burrow did with CJ Uzomah last season, you’ll see the logic.  Uzomah was always a good tight end, but his stats didn’t reflect it.  Last season, in his only full go with Burrow, we watched Uzomah crush career numbers and be leaned on in critical situations.  I think Hayden Hurst is headed for a resurgence in one of the league’s most high flying offenses and, at the hardest fantasy position, he’s probably gathering dust on the waiver wire as we speak.

 

Cleveland Browns: Wide Receiver - Donovan Peoples-Jones

We’re headed for a new era in Cleveland here, folks.  Although Baker Mayfield is still with the team, Deshaun Watson is now in town and they will revamp anything and everything for him to be successful.  If you’ve forgotten or didn’t know, the haul that the Browns gave up for a guy who hasn’t played in over a year, had massive legal issues and problems with his old front office is truly unprecedented.  I’m not going to comment on any of it, but I’m just saying, the Browns are completely invested in Watson.  Although the Browns will most likely bring in wide receiver talent through free agency, trading or the draft, I think we should be investing in what’s there now.

 

The days of OBJ and Jarvis Landry are history.  Until there is new movement, the top option for Deshaun Watson is none other than Donovan Peoples-Jones.  The statistics aren’t jaw dropping, but let’s consider he was playing behind one to three other players at times last year and was receiving from a quarterback who didn’t best utilize his talents.  Under this new offensive regime, I am completely certain that  Peoples-Jones will crush it.  Now's the time to pounce and grab a guy who did very well considering his circumstances last season.  I also believe, though it saddens me, that Nick Chubb will be a little less involved considering Watson’s style of play versus Mayfield’s.  The path is clear for Peoples-Jones to shine and shouldn’t it be for your team?

 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Wide Receiver - Chase Claypool

Up until two years ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers were my real life favorite team.  I have seen so many Big Ben to Antonio Brown touchdowns that I can’t even count.  Many fans haven’t even seen their team win a championship and I’ve seen a few, so they were good times.  Needless to say, I’ve moved on to another team we’ll discuss in the next article so I feel that, for the first time, I can be completely unbiased about Pittsburgh and what they have to offer for your fantasy team as far as values.

It is very tempting to put MItch Trubisky’s name here, but I just can’t until after the draft.  If I knew that Pittsburgh had not taken one in the draft, I’d be writing about Trubisky, but I can’t sell the farm on him just yet.  With that in mind, I turn to Chase Claypool.  I have the world of respect for Diontae Johnson, and although he is undervalued, the blindness toward Claypool’s talents is even greater.  Mad respect for Big Ben, but it wasn’t good these past couple years, so Claypool’s value will not go down in the receiving game.  It will go up substantially as JuJu is gone and Claypool is the true number two option.  I also love the fact that Chase is so involved in the rushing game.  While he’s not at Deebo Samuel level, Claypool’s no slouch in that regard.  With uncertainty at quarterback and an attempt to save Najee’s strength a bit, I think Claypool is more used as a rusher as well.  Make the move for Chase Claypool.

 

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