Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC North Predictions

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AFC North Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

Heading toward 2022 faster than we all think, each team in the NFL has the chance to repeat greatness or correct disaster.  Whether you finished dead last or won the Lombardi Trophy, each team begins anew with an unscathed record.  As we look at the AFC North, it is a division ripe with rivalry and storylines.  Let’s attempt to figure out how each team will do for the upcoming season.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Last season the Baltimore Ravens were decimated with injuries.  Looking ahead, a healthy, albeit unhappy, Lamar Jackson is crucial to the team’s success.  Arguably the best tight end in the league on your team doesn’t hurt, and let’s not forget about promising JK Dobbins coming back from injury himself.  The worry is that even though there are high hopes for Rashod Bateman, the receiving group is among the least tested in the entire NFL.  

 

Situation to watch

All eyes are on Kyle Hamilton when it comes to draftees from the Ravens this off season, and why not?  He fell so far, the value was insane.  But I’m even more interested in fellow first round pick, Tyler Linderbaum.  With Bradley Bozeman leaving for Carolina, Eric DeCosta drafted just what the doctor ordered.  The only thing holding Linderbaum back is his size but thankfully, putting on weight is a lot easier than putting on talent.

 

Conclusion

If I’m being honest here, I don’t see how the Ravens only get 9 wins if the team stays healthy, but I have to stand by my assessment.  I see some key losses early on and a bad stretch to end the season.  Until they can do better against their own division, it’s not going to look pretty.  That being said, I can still see them in the playoffs.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Record in 2021: 10-7-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 12-5-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

I can still hear, “WHO DEY” in my sleep.  Talk about fans coming out of the woodwork.  When it comes to offenses, there aren’t many higher powered than the Bengals.  Once Burrow and Chase reunited, they didn’t look back.  But I can’t remember such a bad offensive line carrying their team so far as they did for the Bengals last season.  And even though it’s vastly improved, you wonder if it’s enough.

 

Situation to watch

As I mentioned before in the glaring weakness for the Bengals, the offensive line needs to improve drastically for further success.  While Joe Burrow is fantastic, he’s not a magician.  Getting sacked 70 times last season had to take a toll.  And while the Cinderella run was awe inspiring, if this situation is not corrected, there will be no ball next time; just disappointed mice and a smashed pumpkin.

 

Conclusion

My prediction for this team is quite believable considering what they accomplished last season.  The offensive talent is brimming over the edge, but let’s not forget about the unheralded defense, with the secondary in particular.  While fans are probably still jeering poor Eli Apple, players like Chidobie Awuzie and Mike Hilton are at the top of their game.  I have no doubt that the Bengals take the AFC North again, only this time it will be with more authority.

 

Cleveland Browns

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

When it comes to the Cleveland Browns, the running game led by Nick Chubb is among the best in the NFL.  Possibly the best pure runner in the league, when paired with a healthy Kareem Hunt, it can be mesmerizing.  The highly polarizing arrival of Deshaun Watson will bring a new era, but it comes with its own drama.  Changing the team’s identity is not a task easily performed.

 

Situation to watch

The first fully healthy season from Myles Garrett since 2018 did not disappoint.  While names like TJ Watt, Aaron Donald and Micah Parsons are spoken of so often as elite defenders, (and rightfully so), so many forget to mention Garrett.  He needs to receive more praise for what he does each season.  On a side note, I’d also love to see a full season from Denzel Ward and Jadeveon Clowney.

 

Conclusion

I can’t wait for the day when I don’t see a drama headline about either Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield when it comes to Cleveland.  I see this team underachieving, not due to a lack of talent, but due to the noise.  If they can settle down and just play football, they have the tools to contend for the division, but it doesn’t seem likely for 2022.  Another year, it seems, of middling progress before they find their footing awaits.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record in 2021: 9-7-1  

Predicted Record in 2022: 11-6-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

When it comes to the strengths of the Steelers, Najee Harris leads the charge and don’t forget about underrated Diontae Johnson at receiver.  But as we all know, the quarterback situation is quite uncertain.  It’s coming down to last chance Mitchell Trubisky or fresh from the draft Kenny Pickett.  While neither are expected to be Big Ben, it’s worrisome in these uncharted waters.

 

Situation to watch

Obviously, as we just discussed, the situation to watch is the quest to find the heir apparent for Roethlisberger.  And even if it is decided eventually, I can’t see it being right away.  Yinzers will have to hold their breath as they eagerly await the captain to steer this ship.  After all, the last time Big Ben wasn’t the starter it was Tommy Maddox leading the charge.  It just feels strange to see anyone else, but we must press on.

 

Conclusion

Much like the Ravens, my prediction for the Steelers surprises even me.  In my heart of hearts, there has to be regression, but based on my calculations, it’s actually looking upward for Steel Town.  In order for this to happen, there can’t be any wasted time.  The defense must carry the team until the starting quarterback emerges.

AFC North Best Values

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AFC North Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Isn’t dynasty the best format for fantasy football?  I don’t know why anyone plays any other version.  There’s just something about managing a team that will be with you for as long as you see fit.  And while some like the “reset” that each new year brings in redraft, I’ll never understand the appeal of losing what I worked so hard to get.  No matter what type of fantasy football you choose to play, finding values is essential.  For those of us who play dynasty, we can pretty much make moves whenever we want, so this is a big advantage over those who hibernate from fantasy football in the offseason.  Today, let’s delve deep into the caverns of the AFC North to look for the best value player each team has to offer.  This is my second favorite division, so I’m excited.

 

Baltimore Ravens:  Wide Receiver - Marquise Brown

If we’re being honest, the Baltimore Ravens overall are underrated.  Aside from Mark Andrews, many of their skilled players just aren’t given the respect they are due in drafts and trades.  So finding values is a lot easier on this team than others.  The only issue is picking the best value in Baltimore, and for me it has to be Marquise Brown.  While so many are flocking to Mark Andrews when it comes to seeing talent, don’t be foolish and overlook Hollywood.  In fact, among wide receivers, he’s one of the better values in the entire National Football League.

Marquise Brown, despite all his talent, will always be seen as that guy who is the team’s top wide receiver, but one that will always struggle for consistency.  Whether it is Mark Andrews taking so many of Lamar’s targets or the butter fingers that Brown showed last season, not many have the faith that they should in Baltimore’s top wide receiver.  If I’m being completely honest, will Marquise Brown be a top ten wide receiver next season?  The answer is not likely.  But that doesn’t mean that he won’t be a solid WR2 with upside for a WR1.  And if one more person tells me that Rashod Bateman is taking over, I might lose my marbles.  Make no mistake, not only will Marquise Brown be a steal for you, he’s the best steal on the Ravens roster.

 

Cincinnati Bengals: Tight End - Hayden Hurst

I can still hear “who dey” in my sleep after last season’s Super Bowl appearance for the Cincinnati Bengals.  I’m not sure where all these fans came from, but they sure did make an appearance.  I am a little biased here as the Bengals are my second favorite team, but if you don’t at least own a piece of this offense, you are doing yourself a great disservice.  It would make sense to put the likes of Tyler Boyd or even Tee Higgins here, as many seem to forget anyone other than superstar Ja’Marr Chase are in Cincinnati, but I’m going to suggest Hayden Hurst as the best value here.

I know it sounds crazy to say it.  After all, despite being a first round draft pick by the Ravens, he hasn’t had the success that Baltimore predicted when they took him before they even took Lamar Jackson.  And his time in Atlanta certainly didn’t bear fruit, so why believe in him now?  If you saw what Joe Burrow did with CJ Uzomah last season, you’ll see the logic.  Uzomah was always a good tight end, but his stats didn’t reflect it.  Last season, in his only full go with Burrow, we watched Uzomah crush career numbers and be leaned on in critical situations.  I think Hayden Hurst is headed for a resurgence in one of the league’s most high flying offenses and, at the hardest fantasy position, he’s probably gathering dust on the waiver wire as we speak.

 

Cleveland Browns: Wide Receiver - Donovan Peoples-Jones

We’re headed for a new era in Cleveland here, folks.  Although Baker Mayfield is still with the team, Deshaun Watson is now in town and they will revamp anything and everything for him to be successful.  If you’ve forgotten or didn’t know, the haul that the Browns gave up for a guy who hasn’t played in over a year, had massive legal issues and problems with his old front office is truly unprecedented.  I’m not going to comment on any of it, but I’m just saying, the Browns are completely invested in Watson.  Although the Browns will most likely bring in wide receiver talent through free agency, trading or the draft, I think we should be investing in what’s there now.

 

The days of OBJ and Jarvis Landry are history.  Until there is new movement, the top option for Deshaun Watson is none other than Donovan Peoples-Jones.  The statistics aren’t jaw dropping, but let’s consider he was playing behind one to three other players at times last year and was receiving from a quarterback who didn’t best utilize his talents.  Under this new offensive regime, I am completely certain that  Peoples-Jones will crush it.  Now's the time to pounce and grab a guy who did very well considering his circumstances last season.  I also believe, though it saddens me, that Nick Chubb will be a little less involved considering Watson’s style of play versus Mayfield’s.  The path is clear for Peoples-Jones to shine and shouldn’t it be for your team?

 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Wide Receiver - Chase Claypool

Up until two years ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers were my real life favorite team.  I have seen so many Big Ben to Antonio Brown touchdowns that I can’t even count.  Many fans haven’t even seen their team win a championship and I’ve seen a few, so they were good times.  Needless to say, I’ve moved on to another team we’ll discuss in the next article so I feel that, for the first time, I can be completely unbiased about Pittsburgh and what they have to offer for your fantasy team as far as values.

It is very tempting to put MItch Trubisky’s name here, but I just can’t until after the draft.  If I knew that Pittsburgh had not taken one in the draft, I’d be writing about Trubisky, but I can’t sell the farm on him just yet.  With that in mind, I turn to Chase Claypool.  I have the world of respect for Diontae Johnson, and although he is undervalued, the blindness toward Claypool’s talents is even greater.  Mad respect for Big Ben, but it wasn’t good these past couple years, so Claypool’s value will not go down in the receiving game.  It will go up substantially as JuJu is gone and Claypool is the true number two option.  I also love the fact that Chase is so involved in the rushing game.  While he’s not at Deebo Samuel level, Claypool’s no slouch in that regard.  With uncertainty at quarterback and an attempt to save Najee’s strength a bit, I think Claypool is more used as a rusher as well.  Make the move for Chase Claypool.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our next stop is a division is full of intrigue in both real life as well as for fantasy purposes; The AFC North! Before we get into the team breakdowns, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is back! The Steelers are an absolute BUY, targeting these players and reaching to get a piece or two of this group. Last year was a lost season but upside remains as they look to return to being a fantasy friendly offense.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: “Ladder Pick”, low QB1, 1-2% auction, round 13, Big Ben returns from injury with an outstanding offensive core surrounding him. If he is able to stay healthy (like Cam Newton in NE) he could have the largest ROI in fantasy football.

RB James Conner: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 3, I believe the Steelers will return to be an elite offense if Big Ben can stay healthy. Conner can be a major beneficiary with top 10 RB upside! A big riser for me this summer!

RBs Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, and Jaylen Samuels: As of now I’m not drafting these guys unless it is a deep league. All priority FAs!

Snell seems to be the favorite for backup duties, McFarland is the rookie PPR target, and versatile Samuels has pass catching upside as well. Waiting to see how it plays out. Again we want players in offenses with upside.

WR Juju Smith-Schuster: WR1, 12-13% auction, round 3, I believe Juju is a major bounce back candidate and as a versatile WR in an elite offense, he is a player worth reaching for!

WR Diontae Johnson: Low-WR3, ideal WR4, 4% auction, late round 7/ideal round 8, Johnson showed flashes of greatness as rookie with poor QB play, he might be the best value of the skill position players on this team!

WR James Washington and Chase Claypool: Priority FAs, deep league end of bench stashes. These two 2nd round picks have immense upside in this offense, especially if Juju or Diontae were to miss time!

TE Eric Ebron: TE2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, he is one of the many good TE options late in drafts. Maybe the deepest the position has felt in years, I wouldn’t be disappointed if he ended up on a deep league roster. This athletic TD machine could be a wonderful late Best Ball pick

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson! Wow! An incredible and wildly satisfying fantasy performance! He does it all and executed the offense to absolute perfection! He alone makes the Ravens a Big Buy! I’m aggressively targeting players in this elite offense!

QB Lamar Jackson: QB1, 10% auction, round 4, I typically wait on QB but Jackson (as well as Mahomes) is extremely tempting to get early. He’s the GameShark because has the cheat code! (Remember GameShark?! How cool were those?!). Immense rushing and passing upside!

RB Mark Ingram: RB2, 8-9% auction, round 5, Ingram value has plummeted with the addition of JK Dobbins. I say “Good! More for me, please!” This is exciting because there is still plenty of opportunity for both of them to have fantasy success and Ingram is all the cheaper in drafts.

RB JK Dobbins: “Ladder Pick”, RB4 with RB2 upside, 6-7% auction, round 5-6, he was part of an epic RB class, It will be fascinating to see how their careers play out. He shares the backfield with Ingram for now. I’m targeting both in drafts, an easier feat to accomplish in auction

Dobbins like Jonathon Taylor have paths that are eerily similar to that of Ezekiel Elliott. Even with a crowded backfield, the Ravens selected Dobbins in the 2nd round! He checks all the boxes and lands in an elite offense! I am going to be aggressively targeting him in all formats!

WR Marquise Brown: WR3, 6% auction, round 6-7, this Best Ball target flashed as a rookie even while dealing with injuries. He is healthy, has added muscle to his undersized frame. He is a unique talent and a perfect weapon for the modern day NFL.

WRs Boykin and Devin Duvernay are both priority FAs. I would keep a close eye on any of the depth WRs in Baltimore. We want players in elite offenses!

TE Mark Andrews: TE1, 8-9% auction, round 5, nick-named MANDREW, which is awesome, he broke out along with Jackson last year, in glorious fashion. It is easy to forget how much he struggled with injuries last year, as he was essentially “questionable” to play for the majority of the contests last season.

However, he is a clear focal point of the passing game, and now has more target share potential with Hayden Hurst in Atlanta.

Cleveland Browns

A new HC is in town which will hopefully lead to some stability in the organization. It’s been a rocky road to say the least. For fantasy purposes, having big upside at every offense core position The Browns are a BUY!

QB Baker Mayfield: QB2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, this post-hype sleeper is surrounded by great pass-catchers and still has rushing upside. Since QB is so deep, I typically look elsewhere even when waiting on QB, but if he can limit turnovers he could be a real steal.

RB Nick Chubb: RB1, 17-18% auction, late round 1, early round 2, extremely talented in an offense that has scoring upside. Hunt can take away a little bit of his ceiling which is why I prefer Chubb in the 2nd round, but he is too good to pass up when he is available on the board.

RB Kareem Hunt: RB3, 5-6% auction, round 6, pass catching upside makes him an interesting FLEX, I typically like to grab WRs where Hunt’s ADP is but if I start robust WR with elite TE, he can be utilized as a RB2. He becomes an instant RB1 if Chubb were to miss time!

WR Odell Beckham Jr: WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4-5, the dynamic play maker looks to build off of a mostly down first year in Cleveland. He could be a major steal as WR2 on your roster. Beckham’s success does rely a bit of Baker. I hope he can return to his old form!

WR Jarvis Landry: WR3, 7-8% auction, round 6, PPR stud, one of my favorite players creates an excellent duo with his college teammate OBJ, it is a scary combination and should be fruitful if Baker’s play can be elevated from last year. He is one of the safest floor plays in the league! One of my first players I add to my queue!

TE Austin Hooper: TE2, with sneaky TE1 upside, it was a curious signing with Cleveland already having Njoku on their roster but more HC Kevin Stefanski loves to incorporate TEs into the offense.

Not the most “exciting” pick but should have a nice floor with room to grow! Keep an eye on David Njoku as well, Uber-athletic, priority FA, especially if Hooper were to miss time!

Cincinnati Bengals

Young HC Zac Taylor’s rough first year led the Bengals to a new franchise QB! The Bengals have nowhere to go but up as their offensive core falls into the NEUTRAL category. The QB play will determine how much juice is squeezed from the lemon. Hopefully Joe Burrow can make some tasty lemonade.

QB Joe Burrow: QB2, priority FA, Burrow broke college football last year with dominate play week in and week out, while seemingly played better as the competition grew. The Bengals get their new face of the organization. Very good weapons surround him, so I would not hesitate to add him if your starter misses time!

RB Joe Mixon: RB1, 22-23% auction, late round 1, Mixon is a really good player even with mediocre QB play. Burrow is an upgrade and provides new found upside to offensive core, most of which to Mixon. Should potentially see easier looks since defenses will have to respect the QB play even more.

RB Gio Bernard: RB5, 1-2% auction, round 13, Gio is old reliable, he can do it all, but he is behind Mixon, if Mixon were to miss time, Gio becomes FLEX option! One of best late round stashes (and moustaches) for your team!

WR Tyler Boyd: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), ideal WR3, 10% auction, round 6, PPR target, he will be a bit of a safety net for the young QB, I think his value is the least affected of the all the pass catchers! Very safe pick, nice weekly floor!

WR AJ Green: WR3, 8-9% auction, round 7, of AJ Green can do AJ Green things he will be the biggest steal of drafts. When he is healthy all he does is put up top 10 WR seasons! High risk high reward!

WR John Ross and Tee Higgins: Priority FAs, both should be rostered in all leagues if healthy when and if AJ Green were to miss time! Higgins is more of a dynasty buy compared to redraft! John Ross is best utilized as a Best Ball target!