Philadelphia Eagles

Dynasty Debate:  AJ Brown vs Jaylen Waddle

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Dynasty Debate:  AJ Brown vs Jaylen Waddle

 

I’ve had people ask me…

 

“What kind of separation do you have between AJ Brown and Jaylen Waddle?”

“Who would you rather have?  AJ Brown or Jaylen Waddle?”

“I know they are different types of Wide Receivers, but would you trade Waddle for AJB or vice versa?”

 

Well…I have thoughts.

Dynasty Pros Wide Receiver Rankings

Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator

 

AJ Brown

 

Brown had an elite season in 2022, finishing as the overall WR6 with just over 17.5 PPG in PPR leagues.  He also had an elite target share, finishing 5th in the league with a 28.7% share on a Philadelphia Eagles team that led the NFL in WR target share at 69.5%.  Of his 145 targets, only 95 were considered “catchable”, meaning he caught 92.6% of “catchable” targets.  I believe Brown has even more upside, considering QB Jalen Hurts is emerging as one of the top Quarterbacks in the NFL, having cliimbed from 61.3 to 66.5 in completion percentage over the last two seasons.  At only 26 years old with a 25 year old QB, Brown still has several years left of high caliber football to play, as he should be entering his prime years.

With positives, there always comes negatives.  AJ Brown is not the only high-end WR in Philly.  DeVonta Smith will always eat into AJ Brown’s target share.  As awesome as Brown’s target share was last season, Smith also had a 26.9% share himself…good enough for 10th highest in the NFL.  Jalen Hurts is also a very effective runner, so he doesn’t have to remain in the pocket and look for downfield targets in order to move the offense down the field.  In 2022, Hurts ran the ball 165 times, which was most in the league for a QB.  Hurts also ran the ball nearly as many times in the Red Zone as he passed it (44 carries to 46 pass attempts), meaning AJ Brown’s RZ usage isn’t as high as what it potentially could be (7 receptions on 15 targets).  His 7 RZ receptions were 24th in the NFL and his 15 RZ targets were 17th in the league.  

 

 

Jaylen Waddle

 

Waddle has had consecutive superb seasons in Miami, even with some uncertainty at the Quarterback position.  Tua Tagovailoa has never played a full 17 game season, as he has dealt with a plethora of injuries (most notably concussions).  Despite the injury issues with Tua, Waddle has amassed 179 receptions, 2,371 yards, and 14 TDs in his two seasons with the Dolphins.  In 2022, Jaylen Waddle led the NFL with 18.1 yards per catch and was 8th in total air yards with 842 yards and 5th with 514 yards after catch.  In 2023, Miami’s QB position should be a bit more solidified, as they have signed Mike White to back-up Tagovailoa.  White was very solid in the back-up role while with the Jets and has shown he can put up big numbers (405 yards against Cincinnati in 2021, 315 yards against Chicago in 2022, and 369 yards against Minnesota in 2022).  In 2023, Waddle should remain highly productive.

Now the cons…Waddle is the WR2 in South Beach.  While Tyreek Hill is in town, Waddle will likely never surpass Hill’s production.  Waddle was 24th in the league in target share with a 24.8% share and saw his targets drop from 140 in 2021 to 117 in 2022.  His reception total also took a hit with Hill around, as he went from 104 catches in 2021 to 75 in 2022 and became much more of a field stretcher in 2022.  Waddle is also not a Red Zone threat.  He was only targeted 8 times in the RZ, finishing 58th in the league.  

 

Verdict

 

While both are highly elite Wide Receivers and I would be very happy with either guy on my roster, I lean towards AJ Brown when comparing Brown and Waddle.  Brown being paired with Jalen Hurts is much more attractive than Waddle being with Tua, who is often injured and has an uncertain future. Not to mention the fact that AJB is the WR1 in Philadelphia, while Waddle is the likely WR2 in Miami.  The age difference is a non-factor for me, as Brown is only 17 months older than Waddle.  

Recently, I have put my money where my mouth is regarding these two.  In a c2c league, I traded Penn State QB Drew Allar and Jaylen Waddle for Texas QB Quinn Ewers and AJ Brown.  I don’t necessarily have a lot of separation between Allar and Ewers of Brown and Waddle, but the allure of a better QB situation and better WR pecking order in Philly makes Brown a better fit for me.  

 

AJ Brown

Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Destinations: Derrick Henry

By John McGlynn

 

The Tennessee Titans are rumored to be shopping Derrick “King” Henry this off-season in what feels like a rebuilding move. That combined with other Titans players getting released/waived further shows this to be true. My focus in this article is King Henry, as I have a handful of destinations I see him fitting in quite nicely. Here are my top 5 destinations for the superstar running back.

 

 

Buffalo Bills

I start off with my #1 destination.. the Buffalo Bills. They should absolutely be on the phone kicking the wheels on the King Henry freight train while it's still in the station. Everyone knows that the Bills have one of the most powerful offenses in the league. Josh Allen has been playing hero ball since his slow start in year one and two. He's on fire now, but how long can that last? How long can Allen hang in the pocket and throw missiles to Diggs with defensive lineman and linebackers hanging all over him? How many times can he get his elbow yanked mid throw before his elbow injuries go from a weekly scare to a long term serious injury? What can the Bills do to fix this offense?

The answer to the question of how do we keep Josh Allen safe is just a phone call away for Bills General Manager Brandon Beane. That phone call should go as follows. “Ran, Brandon Beane here. I need to set up a play action offense to give Josh Allen time in the pocket and I need Derrick Henry in my backfield to do that?” And before you say anything about the salary cap and Derrick Henry’s $10mil and the Bills already negative cap number, just remember that the New Orleans Saints operate in the negative every off-season it seems. Heck.. they aren't even close to the powerhouse team that the Bills are. We all know the salary cap is a fake number that a savvy numbers guy can magically make work with a ballpoint pen.

 

 

Now imagine if the Bills do find a way to get the King, his 300 attempts, his 1500+ yards, his 15+ touchdowns, and his long speed. Not to mention the peace of mind it will give Josh Allen in the pocket. Now imagine they are ables to draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Quenton Johnston at pick 27. After that they complete their draft with a handful of offensive linemen. The Bills offensive depth chart just became more unstoppable than it seemingly was before. 

The Bills always seem to be rumored to be the market for a game changing running back. This is their chance in a Super Bowl-or-Bust type of move. I cannot think of a better way to improve this offense than to add the King of moving the football and then opting to just plug the need at wide receiver in the draft. The Bills can't be scared to go for broke as losing to the Bengals and the Chiefs in the playoffs is getting old. Bills Mafia would be jumping for joy if this were made into a reality. Heck.. I might join the Bills Mafia myself if King Henry is wearing a Buffalo jersey next season. 

 

 

Miami Dolphins

Miami is another team that could really use a running back like Henry. This is a powerful offense that funnels through Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Keeping Tua upright is obviously the priority of the Dolphins and stuffing three hundred plugs carried down the opponents interior defense would definitly achieve that goal. They have the money/cap space, and Henry can certainly help control the clock when Miami needs it most.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Moving on from Miles Sanders is something we can see the Eagles doing. Sanders did just fine behind one of the leagues best offensive lines however, he is no Derrick Henry. Sanders averaged about 30 receptions over the last four seasons, and even though Henry is not known to be a PPR machine, he has shown soft hands when he has been targeted. In this high-powered offense, and with a young and very mobile Jalen Hurts, keeping Henry bottled up in the backfield would be almost impossible. 

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon is rumored to be a cut candidate in Cincinnati. He did regress somewhat last season, but being part of this finely tuned, well oiled machine, there was no excuse why Mixon failed to gain a thousand yards. He had one historic game last year that accounted for a huge chunk of his stats. Samaje Perine could have a chance to prove himself if the Bengals move on from Mixon, but having a raging bull in the backfield all revved up and ready to go would be a welcome site for every Bengals fanatic.

 

Denver Broncos

The Broncos had some high hopes for Javonte Williams last season, but he suffered a terrible injury that tore multiple ligaments in his knee. As we saw with JK Dobbins, this injury might take time to heal. A new ground and pound offense, under new Coach Sean Payton could be the buffer the Broncos need until Javonte is ready to return. Russell Wilson is use to playing with a workhorse back like Marshawn Lynch, and having the pressure lifted off Wilson as the centerpiece of the offense might right the ship for the whole franchise. Let Russ cook and let Broncos Country ride on the back of King Henry.       

 

Three’s Company? 

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Three's Company? 

By Joe Goodwin

At this point in the fantasy football cycle, you are probably being overloaded with the amount of information that is available to you.  One article claims a player is a “league winner,” while another puts that same players on the “Do Not Draft” list.

Needless to say, conflicting information can be troublesome for most fantasy managers.

A fantasy point that always gives me pause is the idea that an offense can have multiple high-end fantasy producers all on the same field.

I looked into that very premise to determine if that is true or not.

Last year, I found 2 examples of a fantasy explosion (3 receivers in the top 36 and a RB in the top 24) from one team:

Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR5, 305 pts), Tee Higgins (WR24, 219 pts), Tyler Boyd (WR31, 183 pts) and Joe Mixon (RB4, 288 pts).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR9, 262 pts), Chris Godwin (WR15, 242 pts), Rob Gronkowski (TE7, 171 pts) and Leonard Fournette (RB6, 343 pts).

I should also mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers were very close to qualifying for this study:

Diontae Johnson (WR8, 274 pts), Chase Claypool (WR37), Pat Friermuth (TE13) and Najee Harris (RB3, 300 points).

So, with these examples, can we predict whether these teams can produce in that same manner:

Las Vegas: DaVante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, Najee Harris

Philadelphia: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Know, Devin Singletary

Denver: Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Javonte Williams

Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook

Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon

With the 2 teams that accomplished that feat last year, both were led by top tier quarterbacks Tom Brady (QB3) and Joe Burrow (QB8) with offenses that finished 2nd and 7th respectively in total points and 1st and 7th in passing yards.  And, each team had a run game that was overall in the bottom 10 of the league (Tampa Bay was 25th and Cincinnati was 22nd)

So, with all that being said, what key elements are we looking for in order for a team to support 3 top 36 receivers?

Key Point 1: A team with the requisite 3 receivers to achieve Top 36 WR or Top 12 TE

Key Point 2: Top Tier QB 

Key Point 3: Overall Offenses that finish in the top ten in total points and passing yards

Key Point 4: Run Offense is bottom 10 of the league

As we analyze each team and how they relate to each key point, let’s see where we stand:

Oakland: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{I’m sure some would argue that Carr is a top tier qb, but are you drafting him in your top 8 qb’s?}

Pittsburgh: Point 1, Point 4

{Pitt has the weakest qb and middle of the pack offense}

Philadelphia: Point 1, Point 3, Point 4 

{Jalen Hurts will have to prove he can be top tier first}

Buffalo: Point 1, Point 2, Point 3

{Run game is strong on Buffalo}

Denver: Point 1, Point 2

{Hard to project with the massive upgrade in QB in the offseason on where the offense will finish; Seattle was middle tier in offense stats}

Minnesota: Point 1

{This is not a dart at Cousins, more like a “wait and see” approach with the new offense}

Cincinnati: Point 1, 2, 3, 4

{Let’s hope the improved offensive line helps continue to the trend}

Based on this data, the four teams most likely to support 3 top 36 receivers are: Cincinnati, Oakland, Philadelphia and Buffalo.  

So, if you try to convince yourself to draft Jeudy from Denver or Claypool from Pittsburgh later in your draft in the hopes they can pay off….chances are more likely they will not.

And, if you want to wait a few rounds and grab a receiver like DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd after the 7th round, chances are good they may hit as a top 36 receiver.

Remember the numbers don’t lie!!  Only 2 NFL teams supported multiple fantasy starters in one lineup last year and most likely, that trend will continue again this year.

 

As always, “Come and knock on my door” if you need any fantasy help @JGoody77 on Twitter

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Jalen Hurts

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jalen Hurts

By Steve Uetz

Seeking out the Konami Code is a game-winning recipe but when will it be game over?

Welcome to the Jalen Hurts Dynasty Dilemma!

In the video game world, the Konami Code is a well-known series of button combinations that when pressed correctly will bring the player certain cheat codes to help them succeed in their game of choice. In the fantasy football world, a popular moniker involving the Konami Code idea applies to certain quarterbacks who separate themselves apart due to their rushing ability. It is a cheat code because all the quarterbacks hold a standard floor of passing statistics but the mobile QBs hold higher ceiling potential due to their rushing ability. The next great Konami Code QB is Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles. If you had the foresight to hedge on this being a possibility going into last season as I did, then you are sitting pretty in your dynasty leagues.

In the short term, Hurts is a phenomenal fantasy asset. However since dynasty is a unique balance of weighing short-term value with long-term value; will Hurts remain a strong option for the long haul? Before we dig into the 2022 season and expectations, let us first be reminded of how Jalen Hurts arrived at this moment in time.

Jalen Hurts’ career has been truly fascinating to this point. In college he was a dynamic QB for the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide: the physical traits were often on display, but decision-making was a noticeable flaw. A turning point in his college career was his benching in the National Championship game in which Tua Tagovailoa replaced him and eventually led the team to win the title.

The following season Hurts transferred to the University of Oklahoma and became the next great QB under Lincoln Riley’s supervision. He became the Heisman Trophy runner-up (to LSU’s Joe Burrow) as he achieved the Oklahoma single-season record for rushing yards and points scored by a QB.

In the 2020 NFL draft, he was drafted in the 2nd round (53rd overall) to back up and eventually replace the Philadelphia Eagles’ franchise quarterback, Carson Wentz. I voiced confusion and displeasure with the selection because I was a true Carson Wentz apologist at the time. I ultimately realized that with Wentz’s injury history becoming extensive, it was wise to have a dynamic QB waiting in the wings if anything were to happen to Wentz.

Hurts ended up replacing Wentz in the back end of the season and by season’s end their Head Coach, Doug Pederson was fired. Hurts would enter his second season as the starter with rookie Head Coach Nick Sirianni. Hurts finished the 2021 season with an 8-7 record; a team total of 9-8, while just barely making the playoffs.

Jalen Hurts demonstrated tremendous leadership and was statistically sound; he took positive steps in becoming the Eagles hopeful franchise quarterback. Despite an overall successful sophomore season campaign, he still struggled with deep passing accuracy. The question of if Hurts can become an improved deep ball passer will be a major factor for his further development as a professional and could certainly determine his prowess as a long-term dynasty asset.

Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability provided not only a tremendous ceiling for fantasy output but also a reliable floor week to week. In his 2nd season, Hurts finished first in the NFL for QBs in rushing attempts (139), yards (784), and TDs (10). He appeared in15 games and finished as the QB9 overall while ranking 6th in points per game.

Quick context check; before Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson went on IR to close out the season he was on pace to league the rushing attempts and yards. In 12 games; one of which he left early after only 2 rushing attempts for 5 yards, Jackson totaled 134 attempts for 767 yards.

The primary point remains that Hurts demonstrated that he was an elite rushing QB in 2021 and in the 4 games he started and one half of a game he started the 2nd half taking over for a struggling Carson Wentz. In 2020, once he took over the job; Hurts totaled 51 rushing attempts for 301 yards and 3 TDs.

Furthermore, the Eagles have an enormously improved offensive core. Hurts enters another season with Head Coach Sirianni who took several to get a substantial grip on the Eagles offense and what it is capable of. Another year with the athletic Tight End Dallas Goedert, sophomore weapons DeVonta Smith and Kenneth Gainwell, and now the cherry on top; wide receiver superstar A.J. Brown! A.J. Brown was acquired and immediately given a contract extension during the 2022 NFL draft in a trade with the Tennessee Titans for the 18th overall pick.

The importance of Brown’s presence in the Philadelphia offense simply cannot be understated. We know what Brown is and what he will bring; Brown will bring a big body that can be utilized in short, mid, deep, and red zone passing attempts. He will also make better defensive back matchups available for WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. The improved passing attack trio of Brown, Smith, and Goedert will do wonders for a passing attack that recently relied on Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor in a variety of ways. Brown will not only help Hurts passing efficiency but will give better quality deep ball passing attempts to Watkins and Reagor; who will be best utilized as ancillary weapons.

I can visualize a wide path in which Hurts is able to improve both as a passer but also as a decision maker beyond the typical ‘one read and run’ type of offense. Brown unlocks many possibilities for the Eagles and potential game plans. Hurts has now been officially surrounded by fantastic options; it is now all on him to take the Eagles offense to the next level.

If you are skeptical about Hurts' ability to be a franchise quarterback, improve in his passing ability or decision-making like some members of the fan base and Philadelphia sports media have been then right now in this moment is the ultimate sell-high opportunity. The allure of a young, rushing specialist QB, with wildly improved offensive weapons, will never be higher. Hurts is a hot commodity, right now at least.

I do find the skepticism to be fair to a certain degree. NFL teams should hold high standards to their franchise QBs and if substantial results don’t come quickly, then teams can move on. One of those teams could be the Philadelphia Eagles. For his career Hurts has a completion percentage of 59% with a 9-10 overall W/L record as a starter. His 61% completion percentage in 2021 was ranked 28th among qualifying QBs.

With or without Hurts, General Manager Howie Roseman has done a beautiful job adding draft capital, quality free agents, and draft selections on both sides of the ball in the last two seasons. The Eagles currently hold strong capital in the next two drafts; two first-round picks in 2023 and in 2024 in addition to the first-round pick they also hold two second-round picks.  Howie Roseman has shown to be one of the most aggressive draft day traders in the league; with the strong QB class in 2023, nothing would surprise me if the Eagles looked to make a splash if Hurts doesn’t play to expectation.

If Hurts struggles to develop as a well-rounded quarterback not only could the Eagles go in a different direction at the position but other potential suitors around the league could as well. This would be the total pessimistic perspective but would be a literal nightmare for your dynasty rosters.

There is no doubt about the fact that Hurts has enormous upside with his rushing ability and improved offensive arsenal. However, legitimate questions remain about his professional development and potential career longevity.

Overall, I find that I’m optimistic that the pros outweigh the cons as he has steadily improved with each phase of his ever-adjusting career, including leading the Eagles to the post-season in 2021. Furthermore, I think it is clear the Eagles have put a lot of trust into Hurts as they have put him in the best position to succeed as possible with the A.J. Brown acquisition; it gives me an astounding vote of confidence that the team has with him.

I believe Hurts takes another step forward in his development as he will soon seek a 2nd contract with the Eagles; which of course will give the Eagles tremendous flexibility and outstanding possibilities to build around Hurts using their upcoming draft capital. Jalen Hurts remains a premier Konami Code QB to buy or hold in your dynasty leagues! Get the cheat code and win!

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

NFC East Predictions for 2022

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NFC East Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

In 2020, we saw for only the third time in NFL history where a team with a losing record won the division.  The Washington Football Team represented the NFC then, sporting a 7-9 record.  Moving into 2022, spoiler alert, I see the NFC struggling compared to the rest of the league and promoting a losing team to the playoffs.  Without further ado, here we go.

Dallas Cowboys

Record in 2021: 12-5-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

It seems like forever since the Dallas Cowboys haven’t had the best offensive line in football.  Zack Martin and crew give Dak Prescott his best shot each and every game.  The defense is also among the best in the league.  The biggest problem I see is Mike McCarthy’s late gate decision making.  Boasting the best of both worlds, he has to be wiser when the game matters the most.

Situation to Watch

Personally I’m watching to see the continued growth of CeeDee Lamb.  With Amari Cooper now calling Cleveland home, I can only imagine what CeeDee is truly capable of.  There are only seven receivers in the great history of the Cowboys who bested Lamb’s 79 receptions last season.  It’s not out of the question to think he can top the century mark for receptions; which only one Dallas wide receiver has accomplished.

Conclusion

A big part of the Cowboys not doing as well in 2022 as they did last season is the improvement of another team in this division.  I also see the Cowboys losing two key games to bottom feeders will sink their chances at a winning record.  Although they will be under 500, it doesn’t mean they’re done after 17 games though.

New York Giants

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 6-11-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

I’m sure everyone is aware of how well the Giants did in this year’s draft.  It helps, mind you, when you have two picks in the top ten.  And it’s even more helpful when, at one point, both Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal were in contention to be drafted first overall.  That being said, so many question marks surround the team’s future.  The biggest two are Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.

Situation to Watch

Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley may be the two biggest question marks moving forward, but there are many more.  All in all, the Giants had 16 players miss half the games or more last season and many were starters.  It’s hard to evaluate what kind of team you have if so many are missing in action.  If the Giants are to make some noise this season, they’ve got to stay on the field.

Conclusion

I see positive strides coming the way of new coach Brian Daboll as he should instill a work ethic that has been missing for quite some time.  I also think that Daniel Jones proves management right with his play this year.  Though they won’t make the playoffs, it won’t be a laughing stock situation like it has been for so long.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record in 2021: 9-8-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Philadelphia Eagles shocked the world during the draft when they traded for superstar wide receiver, AJ Brown.  In Brown the Eagles finally have an alpha, but we can’t forget the makeup of this team.  They roster a quarterback who loves to run and the best ground game in the league.  A new identity has to be coming, but I wonder how long that will take to arrive fully.

Situation to Watch

With the addition of AJ Brown, changes are coming.  I worry for the long term security of Miles Sanders.  Last year he scored zero touchdowns and players like Kenneth Gainwell cannot be held off forever.  I don’t think the Eagles can justify another poor season of play from Miles Sanders now that they’re all in with their receiving game.

Conclusion

It’s easy to get excited about AJ Brown, but AJ Brown will not instantly make this team a contender.  If I were looking at the keys to success, I remember that they drafted living bulldozer Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean; maybe the best value in the draft.  The defense was good before, but now they can contend with the big boys.  That being said, I can’t see the offense magically changing overnight.  I’m certain it’s a year of growing pains before the Eagles really fly.

Washington Commanders

Record in 2021: 7-10-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 4-12-1

Strengths and Weaknesses

The biggest strength of this team is their schedule.  Ranking at sixth best, the cards are in their favor, but I’ll be real with you when I say that this team worries me.  Since they improbably limped into their division win two years ago, not much has gone right for this team.  A once rock solid defense has become a sieve and Carson Wentz is not the solution at quarterback.

Situation to Watch

For me, I’m watching to see how first round pick Jahan Dotson does out of the gate.  In my humble opinion, there were other areas they should have addressed in the draft instead of taking a receiver.  In fact, from my estimations, there was a better option even at the position available.  I’m hoping Jahan Dotson proves me wrong though.

Conclusion

There aren’t many teams that I think will finish lower than the Commanders in 2022.  While on paper, the defense should be way better and they are more improved than last year, it won’t be enough.  I predict a six game losing streak out of the gate and it’s a hurdle that wouldn’t likely be overcome by a favorite, let alone the lowly Commanders.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby