Parris Campbell

AFC South Best Values

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AFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Now that we’re knee deep into the off season, many of us are looking for any taste of fantasy football relevance whatsoever.  A wise dynasty manager, however, needs more than just a taste to satisfy their football hunger pains.  We, as managers, should always be looking to improve our ever evolving fantasy franchises.  Whether you are trying to get out of the basement, finally be a playoff contender or even repeat as champion, the common thread is that a winning manager doesn’t sit on his riches.  And in this crucial time before the NFL Entry Draft, you should be looking at value players to add to your team.  Today, let’s dive into the best values for each team in the AFC South.

 

Houston Texans: Quarterback – Davis Mills

What a whirlwind it’s been for the Houston Texans.  The drama of Deshaun Watson seemed to have overtaken every aspect of the team’s story, but now that Watson has moved on with the Cleveland Browns, we can finally think about anything else in Houston.  The situation is quite dire on the outside, but if we dig a little deeper, there are diamonds covered in coal dust.  There weren’t many players last season as unrecognized for their efforts as Davis Mills.  Even with all the drama, haters, and lack of weapons, Davis Mills quietly put together a nice rookie season.

It must have been crazy for Mills.  Here you are, drafted to a team with seemingly no chance to play, and suddenly, you are thrust into the limelight with fantasy and real life fans alike demanding greatness.  Anyone who says the Houston Texans skilled players are near the bottom of the league aren’t wrong, but even with them, Davis Mills actually performed better than most think.  There are obvious differences, but under a more stringent microscope, Mills compares closer to fellow rookie, Mac Jones.  You also have to discount Mills’ first six games where he got booed by his own fans for not being named Deshaun Watson.  As the season grew, Mills did more with so little than most other quarterbacks.  Moving forward, he’s not a top tier QB1, but he’s surely got a shot at being a decent, dependable QB2.  The price is right for picking.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Wide Receiver – Parris Campbell

There was a time when the name Parris Campbell brought nothing but excitement.  In 2019, the Indianapolis Colts took Campbell as the seventh wide receiver off the board and for many, he was a total steal.  In his senior year, he absolutely exploded from his norm and this was what many thought was just things to come.  At the NFL level, however, he’s yet to show anything close to those “true colors”.  He’s also been injured each and every year.  Most critics have already written him off, but I think there’s a world in which Parris Campbell still holds value.

Admittedly, the exodus of Carson Wentz was somewhat shocking to me.  I knew that there was a chance, but with what the Colts invested to get him, I was sure it was too soon to cut him loose.  Once I saw the Matt Ryan move, it all made sense.  And, this is the same reason why moving for Parris Campbell makes sense.  Matt Ryan ain’t no spring chicken, as they say, but he’s far from done.  Now in a strong system, with tons of support, we’ll see something closer to the Matt Ryan of old.  While everyone feigns for Michael Pittman like they always should have, everyone will forget about the forgettable Parris Campbell.  After Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan will turn to someone and I believe it will be Campbell; who’s essentially free in most leagues.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Tight End – Evan Engram

I have to confess something.  I’ve been an Evan Engram truther since I rostered him in his historic rookie season.  He was nothing short of amazing and when I say, “historic”, I’m not exaggerating.  In his rookie season, not only did he score six times, which is incredible as a rookie tight end, but he also had the 7th most receiving yards of all time.  And while I still love to watch him, I had to come to the realization that his rookie season was a fluke and he’ll always be injured or underutilized or both.  That was, until he came to Jacksonville.

While I still have faith in Daniel Jones, I have even more faith in Trevor Lawrence.  The Clemson product is elite, despite what people are saying because of his rookie season.  Jacksonville is doing what they can to build around him and Evan Engram will suit him nicely.  The receiving core isn’t among the league’s best and Etienne hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, so Lawrence will need a good safety valve to rely on.  Many managers will be coveting Dan Arnold, so there will be many opportunities to trade for Engram for next to nothing.  There’s a chance that Engram’s elite days are over, but I’m willing to try one last time in this better situation and price.

Tennessee Titans: Wide Receiver – Robert Woods

The Tennessee Titans featured one of the best receiving corps in football last season.  AJ Brown is a top three dynasty wideout for many and Julio Jones is absolutely legendary.  The depth is also fantastic with so many young options to choose from.  But, it’s almost criminal how that team couldn’t make Julio Jones shine in his only season away from the Atlanta Falcons.  I know there were injuries, but it was just insane how strongly the regression took place.  Now that he’s gone, the Titans turn to former Rams stud, Robert Woods.

While Robert Woods is no Julio Jones in his prime, he is a fantastic number two under AJ Brown.  He’s a perfect example of how to succeed in a shared receiver offense as he did it with Cooper Kupp for many years.  And while he’s not young, at 29, Woods still has lots of time to prove he’s still got it after last year’s injury.  Derrick Henry can’t be the entire offense anymore and this will force the ball to others, like Robert Woods.  We also can’t forget that Robert Woods looked so good catching balls from the likes of Jared Goff.  No disrespect to Goff, but Tannehill has to be considered an upgrade by many.  Acquire him at a WR4 cost and watch him blossom as a low end WR2 with upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Top Dynasty Values/Buys

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Top Dynasty Values/Buys

 

We consider “Dynasty Buys” players who some would argue are being undervalued in dynasty leagues. These can be players who had their 2020 season cut short due to injury. They can also be rookies, 2020 disappointments, or undrafted players who are now in better situations. This could be players who are in better schemes that could give them more opportunity as well. Don’t underestimate this list of players, as they could be potential league winners. Read below to check out who the writers here at Dynasty Pros plan on selecting in all their drafts after the first three rounds.

 

Question: Who’s that one player currently outside the top 36 in the PPR Dynasty Leagues that you are drafting everywhere and why?

 

Javonte Williams (RB - DEN) Consensus Rank: 50th Overall | RB20

“Williams is a player I’m targeting on all my dynasty drafts in 2021. The Denver Broncos traded up in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft to grab the electric running back out of North Carolina. That type of investment tells me that Williams should be heavily involved in the Broncos offense immediately. Veteran running back Melvin Gordon no-showing at voluntary OTAs could really help Williams separate himself and win the starting job this summer. Williams has the tools to be a top tier running back, as he led the FBS last season in missed/broken tackles with 75 on just 157 rushing attempts. Don’t be worried about his toughness either, as he was a linebacker-turned-running back in college. I consider him a phenomenal value, since he is currently being drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds. This is a steal for a running back that could be starter come Week 1”

- Bob Miller (@DynastyProBob)

 

 

Zach Ertz (TE - PHI) Consensus Rank: 163 Overall | TE20

“It may seem strange to find a guy like Zach Ertz in a “Dynasty Buy” article with him being 30 years old and approaching 31 but this is exactly where Ertz should be.  In any dynasty buy article you are looking for two things, to buy at a value and a player who has more than one year of productivity left.  Ertz fits both of those categories but the value may not last much longer if he is traded in the coming days or weeks.  Tight ends typically play into their mid 30’s and Ertz has been a phenomenal player with the exception of last year.  Ertz dealt with some injuries last year but more importantly Philly was just a mess and you must take that into consideration when evaluating Ertz.  I believe it’s safe to assume that Ertz is in for a bounce back season especially with a zip code change coming anytime.  Ertz had five straight seasons with at least 74 catches and over 800 yards until last season.  He’s still athletic and he’s likely to be the tight end #1 on any team he plays for.  The time to buy is now before a trade happens because if Ertz is traded to a team like the Indianapolis Colts or Buffalo Bills his value will immediately spike.  Go get this guy in your dynasty leagues where you are a contender this year and next.”

- Levi Ellis (@FFStock_Man37)

 

 

Darnell Mooney (WR - CHI) Consensus Rank: 129 Overall | WR55

“Darnell Mooney had a solid rookie season for the Bears in 2020. After somewhat coming out of nowhere, the former 5th round pick finished 2nd on the team in targets (98), receptions (61), and yards (631). The inconsistent QB play of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles hampered Chicago's passing game, affecting Mooney's...and Allen Robinson's...production. Mooney' speed makes him a serious downfield threat for a QB who can get him the ball.  Andy Dalton and/or rookie Justin Fields should be a definite upgrade for the Bears pass catchers. I am buying Darnell Mooney in every league I can get him in. I predict him to put up 77 Receptions, 986 Yards, and 7 TDs. That’s 217 PPR points, which are solid WR2 numbers. That’s fantastic value for a guy going in the mid-to-later rounds of dynasty drafts.”

- Tommy Harvey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

 

Parris Campbell (WR - IND) Consensus Rank: 143 Overall | WR59

The biggest thing Parris Campbell has going for him right now is his price tag. In most leagues, you can pretty regularly get him for a late 2nd which is getting into the “dart throw” range of picks. All players around there are going to have their question marks. For Campbell that is clearly his injury history, though reports say he’s fully healthy. Now, while there is some amount of injury risk, if he stays healthy he’s in a good position to exceed his current price. It’s a very, very small sample size but in the one full game he did play last year, he had 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 71 yards. For 16 games, he would be on pace for 140+ targets, 90+ catches, and 1100+ yards. That’s WR1 level usage and people are selling him for almost nothing. Again, that was a very small sample size and 2022 will not be the same as 2021 (Carson Wentz as the new QB, Michael Pittman also taking a step up, etc.). Still, there is a pretty high ceiling there for Campbell and, outside of injuries, he’s shown that he can be a starter in the NFL. Even if he doesn’t live up to his ceiling, I fully expect him to outperform his current price tag.

- Zach Owen (@NuetralZoneFF)

 

 

Gabriel Davis (WR - BUF) Consensus Rank: 148 Overall | WR61

“The Buffalo Bills were good. Really good in 2020. Part of their success came from improved QB play from Josh Allen, and the ability for his WR to step up. Josh Allen threw the ball 572 times in 2020. My 2021 projections don't have him falling flat of that and I believe Gabriel Davis, not Emmanuel Sanders benefits from this. Davis was a fourth round pick by the Bills in 2020 and took full advantage when Brown got hurt. He ended his rookie campaign with 35 rec/599 yards/7TDs. He was extremely effective in the endzone and while some say his high TD rate isn't sustainable, I believe he’s got the ability to end with double digit TDs in 2021. Let me explain. 

Gabriel Davis comes in at 6’2, and was learning to utilize his size last year. He became the deep ball target that Allen could lean on, with four of his seven TDs coming from 20 or more yards. Davis ended the year with an NFL 7th best reception average of 17.1! Davis comes in as the tallest WR on the Buffalo roster (Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders all 6’ or shorter) so should become one of Allen’s best red zone targets. Buffalo did not go out and get some TE help (at least not yet) and let go of John Brown this offseason, which also is a positive impact for Davis. I’m predicting 67 receptions, 991 receiving yards, 10TDs (226 PPR pts). With a year under his belt and some offseason noise of the continued chemistry with Josh Allen, I’m fully invested in Gabriel Davis. So should you.”

- Ralph Martinez (@LobosFFDen)

 

 

Michael Gallup (WR - DAL) Consensus Rank: 100 Overall | WR44

“The general consensus on Michael Gallup is that he is the WR3 for the Cowboys behind Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. Some how Gallup still managed to receive over 100 targets last year in that same role. Also, there were only two guys who had more targets in the NFL who were a WR3 for their respective team. Those two players were Chase Claypool (the Steelers were #1 in pass attempts) and Russell Gage (the Falcons were #4 in pass attempts). Russell Gage also benefited from Julio Jones missing 7 games. Many assume Lamb will take a larger chunk of that share this year but it is also easy to forget that the QB situation also improves a lot. In 2019 Gallup put up over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in a full season with Dak Prescott. Gallup is also in his final year of his contract and there could be a few things that raise his stock. Gallup could hit free agency and find himself on a team to be at worst the WR2. The Cowboys also have an out on Amari Cooper which would increase the chances Gallup is resigned by the Cowboys to pair up with Lamb. The third option is Gallup could be traded. If he is traded, the team acquiring him is likely a WR needy team that will force him the ball. Gallup has showed he is talented enough to get a large target share even in a crowded WR room, and his situation can only improve.”

- Collin Kral (@CollinKral)

 

 

Noah Fant (TE - DEN) Consensus Rank: 69 Overall | TE7

I have always loved Noah Fant as I am a lifelong Iowa Hawkeyes fan and that is where he caught my eye. Fant came into the NFL with every indication he was going to be elite. He is a 95+ percentile athlete in every category! He hasn’t become any less elite during his two years in the NFL. 

Fant’s stats in the NFL are matching up with his elite profile. Fant put up the 6th most receiving yards by a rookie TE since 2000– with 562 yards. That yardage came from 8 games of Joe Flacco, 3 games of Brandon Allen, & 5 games of a rookie Drew Lock at QB. Yeah, not a great list.

What about year two? Let’s dive in! In year two Fant put up 673 yards in 15 games. As we dive deeper we see that in one of those games there was one pass completed by Kendall Hinton, and another game he left after 5 snaps. I know it isn’t always fun to play the “what if” game because it's hypothetical, but if you extrapolate and do some math he was on pace for 812 yards in 16 games, while also dealing with a high ankle sprain. 

If you take Fant’s total yardage from his first two seasons, he’s in good company in total receiving yards among TE’s since 2000. He’s 10th on the list, behind Antonio Gates, Gronk, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham and Jason Witten. His 10 spot also ranks ahead of the likes of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed and Dallas Clark. Not bad company. 

Can he keep it going? Sutton is healthy and Jeudy is a mad man when it comes to route running. How does he get the ball? With Lock, Bridgewater, Driskel, Rypien, and Hinton at QB. Stats can’t go down from last year. I project the Broncos to have 4000+ passing yards no matter who is at QB. I mean look at the Steelers and the Cowboys and the Panthers, they supported 3-4 really solid receiving options. Speaking of the Panthers QB that supported those several good fantasy options, Teddy Bridgewater is now in town, which may allow for some consistency at the QB position. Although they have yet to name a starter, I believe that Teddy could Keep all 3 of the big weapons in Denver pretty pleased!

Noah Fant is absolutely elite and he may not break out this year folks. However, this is dynasty; you want to buy before the breakout. Noah Fant is 23 years old, an absolute stud and a QB away from being one of the next GREAT TE’s! He is a bargain at his current Dynasty ADP and I suggest you buy him before it is too late.

- Zach Kurt (@zachattacknfl)

 

 

Jerry Jeudy (WR - DEN) Consensus Rank: 51 Overall | WR24

Let’s rewind the clock to 2019. It’s just before draft time, and Jerry Jeudy is being touted as the best WR prospect since Julio Jones. Considered among many to be the best route runner to come out of Alabama. Fast forward to now. Rookie season complete and where do we stand? 

Jerry Jeudy finished his rookie year with an underwhelming performance. Or did he? Jeudy received 113 targets last year. Of those, only 58% were considered catchable. He caught 52 of those 113 targets. That’s a 46% catch rate. He also had 8 drops. If you add those drops to his reception total, his catch rate jumps to 53%. I realize it’s a little off the cuff math, yet Jeudy never had drop issues in his career at Alabama, so I don’t expect a repeat of this number. 

Looking deeper into his stats, Jeudy finished with 1,536 air yards, good enough for 6th most in the NFL.  Jeudy is the only player to finish top-10 in air yards who didn’t finish with at least 1,000 receiving yards. He should reach that mark in year 2. He also averaged over 1.5 yards of separation per target, which means he was open frequently. 

I think Jeudy's primary issue was quarterback play. In the offseason, the Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater from the Panthers. Last season, Bridgewater managed to propel wide receivers to top-36 fantasy finishes. As odd as it may sound, Bridgewater should be an upgrade at quarterback for Jeudy in 2021. Look for Jeudy to finish as a reliable WR2 this season. Maybe the most appealing is the cost to acquire him. In redraft and best ball, I've seen him go as late as the 9th round. In dynasty, I recently sent a 2nd round pick for him. Jerry Judy is a great buy right now, before he breaks out in 2021.

- Alex French (@TheBlindGuyFF)

 

 

Sam Darnold (QB - CAR) Consensus Rank: 172 Overall | QB27

“One player that I am currently buying in dynasty is QB Sam Darnold for 3 primary reasons:

  • At only 24 years old, Sam Darnold is entering his 4th NFL season and no longer trapped underneath the perpetual storm cloud of a head coach named Adam Gase. The grass is always greener when players are beyond the grasp of Gase. QB Ryan Tannehill is the most notable example of a player who’s talent and potential was capped but then resurged for an epic career redemption once they were set free from the clutches of the horrific incompetence of Adam Gase. Besides the addition by subtraction with Adam Gase, Darnold has been given the metaphorical keys to the car which bring me to reason 2...
  • Job security. Carolina has demonstrated full confidence to Darnold as they traded away their incumbent starter, Teddy Bridgewater, to the Denver Broncos in the weeks leading up to the 2021 NFL draft. Carolina then traded for Darnold and then passed on drafting a QB despite sitting in a prime spot for a QB in the first round. Carolina further displayed their commitment as they picked up Darnold’s 5th year option the day following the 1st round of the NFL draft. Darnold will now have at least two years to show what he is capable of with what is easily the best offensive arsenal he has ever played with in the NFL which is a segue to Reason 3...
  • Darnold’s vastly improved arsenal will include the following: Darnold will be under the wing of the young and intriguing Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady (former LSU OC who played a massive role in Joe Burrow’s record breaking and national championship winning season!), versatile RB stud Christian McCaffrey, rising WR stud DJ Moore, intriguing rookie WR prospect Terrace Marshall, and finally, Darnold will be reunited with his favorite target during his best statistical season; the spry veteran WR Robby Anderson!

He is one of my favorite QB2 options in Super Flex dynasty startups and at the current moment his cost is extremely reasonable for drafts and trades. I firmly believe his career trajectory has nowhere to go but up!”

- Steve Uetz (@FantasyLadder)

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!

Do the Colts Have the Right QB for Fantasy…Or Reality? 

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Do the Colts Have the Right QB for Fantasy...Or Reality? 

By Matt Kelley

I was mid fantasy draft last year in my ‘home league’ that I play in every year, when I received the notification that Andrew Luck was calling it a career. I had just made a selection, somewhere in the eighth round or so, and I just stared at my phone in bewilderment. One of the NFL’s most revered QBs was walking away during what seemed to be the prime of his career. 

Luck was unable to continue on with the grueling reality for him that was: play football, rehab, train, play football, rehab….you get it. A vicious cycle. Quick side note-- if anything comes up during a draft about a player, I usually don’t bother to tell anyone I’m drafting with as you should always be paying attention to these things while drafting. However, I did make it known that Luck had retired, and even with advanced warning given, he was still selected about two picks later.

Whoops. 

Anyway, the Indianapolis Colts were left with no choice but to turn over the reins of the QB position to Jacoby Brissett. The Colts would go 7-9 in the year that Andrew Luck retired right before the beginning of the season.  This was Brissett’s first real shot at being a starter (aside from 2107, when Brissett was traded to the Colts in September to fill in for Luck who didn’t return). 

Fast forward to today, where the Colts have brought in veteran QB Philip Rivers on a one-year, $25 million deal. Mind you, the Colts gave Brissett a two-year extension at a total of $30 million before last season started.  So as we head into 2020, it seems the Colts feel they have an opportunity to win now by bringing in Philip Rivers. While I’m not a NFL GM, I’m not so sure this will pay off in reality, nor in fantasy. 

Let’s take a look at why... 

The Offensive Line: 

Regardless of who you believe should be starting, the Colts will have the benefit of going into 2020 with Pro Football Focus’ top rated offensive line. Every player on the offensive line played over 1,000 snaps last season. Continuity goes a long way for offensive lines. For Philip Rivers, this is a massive upgrade. However, being part of a new team for the first time since 2004 is still something he has to adjust to. 

Rivers is the definition of a pocket QB. Since he took over as the Chargers starting QB in 2006, he’s only rushed for over 100 yards in a single season once. Brissett rushed for 228 yards in 15 games in 2019, and he also added four scores on the ground last season... one more than Rivers has in his entire career. The running game for Indy will thrive with this line and Rivers will have time to throw, but likely won’t add any real production on the ground himself. 

The Surrounding Cast: 

As a whole, Philip Rivers actually walks into a surrounding cast that is a slight downgrade than the one he had previously in San Diego/Los Angeles. Both the Chargers and Colts have excellent run games. As for the pass catchers, Keenan Allen is a better wide receiver than T.Y. Hilton at this point in their careers. Chargers tight end Hunter Henry is a player that is on the rise, while Eric Ebron has departed Indy, leaving the Colts with Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox. 

I know a lot of people are beating the drum for Jack Doyle now that he has a clear path to workload and because Rivers likes to throw to the TE, but Doyle has only one season over 59 catches in seven seasons. Perhaps I’ll be wrong about Doyle and his value for fantasy, but if a player is going to break out it’s likely not in their eighth season. 

While Mike Williams has been hit and miss throughout his time with Rivers on the Chargers, he is a veteran that provided a solid deep ball connection. Indy has the hyped rookie Michael Pittman Jr. as well as the relative unknown of Parris Campbell, as he only played seven games last season. 

More than any other player, Rivers has to adjust to his surroundings here in a shortened offseason. Timing goes a long way, and there’s a strong possibility of some bumps in the road to get things going in 2020 for Rivers and company. 

The Case For and Against Philip Rivers: 

Yards, yards, and more yards. 

There’s no denying that Rivers moves the ball through the air as he has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 11 of his last 12 seasons. He has also accounted for 30 or more passing touchdowns in six of those 12 seasons. Since 2011, Rivers has thrown 18 or more interceptions four times, including last season when he threw 20. Not ideal. In four point per passing TD leagues, Rivers scored 15 or more fantasy points in seven games. Pretty serviceable games. He scored less than 13 fantasy points in eight games. A bit less serviceable. Overall, last season was Rivers’ lowest fantasy output since 2012. 

The Chargers were a team in disarray for much of last season, as running back Melvin Gordon held out for training camp and the first three weeks of the regular season. The incredibly poor offensive line play for the Chargers gave Rivers almost no time to make quality decisions. Rivers had his lowest TD% of his career and tied his second highest mark for INT%. 

Rivers is currently going as QB22 in drafts, so the risk is pretty well in tune with his ADP at pick 148 overall. He provides upside in yardage and touchdowns, but he’s also not likely to give you anything in the rushing department and could possibly throw his way out of a good game with interceptions. 

The Case For and Against Jacoby Brissett: 

Brissett started last season pretty hot, earning more than 16 fantasy points in five of his first six games (three of those with 20+). Unfortunately, over the last nine games he would turn in four performances in which he produced single digit fantasy points. Not great. 

Brissett adds the threat of at least escaping the pocket to make something happen. His rushing wasn’t consistent game to game, but he did end the season with 228 rushing yards over 15 games and four scores on the ground. Brissett accounted for 22 total TD’s to only 6 INT’s. Efficient. That’s pretty good both for fantasy and for reality, especially when you consider Brissett’s top target for a number of weeks was Zach Pascal. 

For as much as Brissett’s average depth of target is talked about, T.Y. Hilton still had five receiving TD’s in the first five games of the season that he played... just one shy of Hilton’s TD total for all of 2018. 

The Colts could easily mirror last year’s Tennessee Titans by running the ball, playing defense, and just being efficient through the air. This fits with what Brissett does pretty well. 

The Colts did take Jacob Eason (QB out of Washington) in the fourth round of the NFL draft. That’s not huge draft capital, but it is worth noting. Eason can be viewed as a project QB and third on the QB depth chart. 

Where We Are: 

As mentioned in other pieces I’ve written, let’s follow the money. 

There was a ton of positive coach-speak last season popping up after the decision to pay Jacoby Brissett. However, the money in the one year deal for Rivers says the Colts look at him as the starter and that they believe he gives the Colts a better chance to win this season. The Colts wouldn’t be the first team to bring in a veteran QB only to have him get beat out in camp, but given the investment, I’d be surprised if Brissett is the opening day QB in Indy. 

No one could have predicted the shortened off-season that the NFL now has however, that’s the reality of 2020. No matter how you cut it, Brissett will go into camp with a better feel for this offense.  However, unless something comes out of camp that the tides have turned and Brissett is anointed the starter, you can’t really depend on him for redraft. You can’t depend on him for dynasty either, but I’d certainly be stashing him. Rivers will be 39 years old in December, and while he’s been an ironman of sorts, Father Time could catch up to him and provide an opportunity for Brissett to get another shot under center. 

If I knew going into the season that Brissett would be under center, I’d feel better about the Colts as well as the surrounding cast. 

Yes...I’m advocating that Brissett is the better option for the Colts. 

He’d need to prove himself more this season to be a long term dynasty investment, but if  T.Y. Hilton remained healthy, the offensive line stayed steady, and Jonothan Taylor added to the ground game, Brissett could remain efficient enough to sneak the Colts into the playoffs and be the better option for your fantasy squad. 

 

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