Miami Dolphins

Dynasty Debate:  AJ Brown vs Jaylen Waddle

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Dynasty Debate:  AJ Brown vs Jaylen Waddle

 

I’ve had people ask me…

 

“What kind of separation do you have between AJ Brown and Jaylen Waddle?”

“Who would you rather have?  AJ Brown or Jaylen Waddle?”

“I know they are different types of Wide Receivers, but would you trade Waddle for AJB or vice versa?”

 

Well…I have thoughts.

Dynasty Pros Wide Receiver Rankings

Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator

 

AJ Brown

 

Brown had an elite season in 2022, finishing as the overall WR6 with just over 17.5 PPG in PPR leagues.  He also had an elite target share, finishing 5th in the league with a 28.7% share on a Philadelphia Eagles team that led the NFL in WR target share at 69.5%.  Of his 145 targets, only 95 were considered “catchable”, meaning he caught 92.6% of “catchable” targets.  I believe Brown has even more upside, considering QB Jalen Hurts is emerging as one of the top Quarterbacks in the NFL, having cliimbed from 61.3 to 66.5 in completion percentage over the last two seasons.  At only 26 years old with a 25 year old QB, Brown still has several years left of high caliber football to play, as he should be entering his prime years.

With positives, there always comes negatives.  AJ Brown is not the only high-end WR in Philly.  DeVonta Smith will always eat into AJ Brown’s target share.  As awesome as Brown’s target share was last season, Smith also had a 26.9% share himself…good enough for 10th highest in the NFL.  Jalen Hurts is also a very effective runner, so he doesn’t have to remain in the pocket and look for downfield targets in order to move the offense down the field.  In 2022, Hurts ran the ball 165 times, which was most in the league for a QB.  Hurts also ran the ball nearly as many times in the Red Zone as he passed it (44 carries to 46 pass attempts), meaning AJ Brown’s RZ usage isn’t as high as what it potentially could be (7 receptions on 15 targets).  His 7 RZ receptions were 24th in the NFL and his 15 RZ targets were 17th in the league.  

 

 

Jaylen Waddle

 

Waddle has had consecutive superb seasons in Miami, even with some uncertainty at the Quarterback position.  Tua Tagovailoa has never played a full 17 game season, as he has dealt with a plethora of injuries (most notably concussions).  Despite the injury issues with Tua, Waddle has amassed 179 receptions, 2,371 yards, and 14 TDs in his two seasons with the Dolphins.  In 2022, Jaylen Waddle led the NFL with 18.1 yards per catch and was 8th in total air yards with 842 yards and 5th with 514 yards after catch.  In 2023, Miami’s QB position should be a bit more solidified, as they have signed Mike White to back-up Tagovailoa.  White was very solid in the back-up role while with the Jets and has shown he can put up big numbers (405 yards against Cincinnati in 2021, 315 yards against Chicago in 2022, and 369 yards against Minnesota in 2022).  In 2023, Waddle should remain highly productive.

Now the cons…Waddle is the WR2 in South Beach.  While Tyreek Hill is in town, Waddle will likely never surpass Hill’s production.  Waddle was 24th in the league in target share with a 24.8% share and saw his targets drop from 140 in 2021 to 117 in 2022.  His reception total also took a hit with Hill around, as he went from 104 catches in 2021 to 75 in 2022 and became much more of a field stretcher in 2022.  Waddle is also not a Red Zone threat.  He was only targeted 8 times in the RZ, finishing 58th in the league.  

 

Verdict

 

While both are highly elite Wide Receivers and I would be very happy with either guy on my roster, I lean towards AJ Brown when comparing Brown and Waddle.  Brown being paired with Jalen Hurts is much more attractive than Waddle being with Tua, who is often injured and has an uncertain future. Not to mention the fact that AJB is the WR1 in Philadelphia, while Waddle is the likely WR2 in Miami.  The age difference is a non-factor for me, as Brown is only 17 months older than Waddle.  

Recently, I have put my money where my mouth is regarding these two.  In a c2c league, I traded Penn State QB Drew Allar and Jaylen Waddle for Texas QB Quinn Ewers and AJ Brown.  I don’t necessarily have a lot of separation between Allar and Ewers of Brown and Waddle, but the allure of a better QB situation and better WR pecking order in Philly makes Brown a better fit for me.  

 

AJ Brown

Backfield Breakdown: Miami Dolphins

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Backfield Breakdown: Miami Dolphins

 

Miami is famous for its sultry weather, pristine beaches, non-stop nightlife, and Art Deco architecture. Miami is also known for its incredible skyline, diverse culinary scene and its ever burgeoning sports culture. So it's no surprise that the city has a raging love affair with the Dolphins.

The Dolphins project to have one of the toughest schedules this upcoming season as they look to produce the first back-to-back playoff berths since Lamar Smith led the team in rushing. That was 22 years ago for those scoring at home. The 2023-24 Dolphins won't have Lamar Smith but it could be argued that they will go as far as their backfield can carry them. Satisfied their pursuit of RB Dalvin Cook will ultimately prove fruitless, we fantasy managers must now focus on the current depth chart and how best to extract what we're all searching for... fantasy success!
We'll start with the old man of the group, Raheem Mostert. At age 31, Mostert is ancient in running back years. Undrafted out of Purdue the diminutive running back found a home in San Francisco and used his tremendous speed to carve out a role in Kyle Shanahan's diverse scheme. When the 49ers allowed him to reach free agency, he followed Mike McDaniel to South Beach and trumped the higher priced Chase Edmunds for the lead in Miami's backfield where he posted career highs in attempts and rushing yards. Mostert also posted career highs in games played and led all Dolphins running backs in snap percentage. And while he should continue to be a factor the heavy workload took a toll, limiting him to 27 total carries over the season's final four weeks which culminated in an inactive designation during Miami's 34-31 playoff loss to division rival Buffalo.
Leading the team in said playoff loss was veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. Acquired ahead of last year's trade deadline. Wilson is a solid but unspectacular runner who understands McDaniels system. He performed well in eight games totaling 486 yards and four touchdowns. He also scored at least 10 PPR points five times making him a flex-worthy spot starter for fantasy purposes, and the Dolphins saw enough from Wilson to ink him to a two-year contract extension this March.
Speaking of former 49ers. Salvon Ahmed is yet another 49er refugee who Miami relied on during their playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills. Ahmed turned his 8 touches into 48 total yards and made it painfully easy to see why he touched the ball just 13 times all season. If the Dolphins are forced to rely on Ahmed for any amount of time they're going to be in trouble. Which leads us to the longest tenured Dolphins running back, Myles Gaskin. Gaskin found some success in Miami catching 90 passes from 2020-2021 but barring injuries fantasy managers shouldn't plan on Gaskin getting a ton of work. At best Gaskin could be a waiver-wire option.
That leaves just rookie Devon Achane. And like Vanessa Williams, we've saved the best for last. Small by NFL Standards, Achane is a fearless inside runner who possesses blazing speed. He has the creativity and burst to create chunk plays and is simply too talented to be confined to gadget duty. Achane is a mismatch out of the backfield and should factor into the passing game right away. Speed has been synonymous with South Beach since Sonny Crockett sped around hunting crooks in his white Ferrari. Now it seems the Ferrari will be the hunted.
Ideally the Dolphins would like for Mostert and Wilson Jr. to continue splitting early down work in much the same way they did last season. In the eight games in which they played together the split was nearly dead even. Wilson totaled 96 touches for 486 yards, while Mostert  had 98 touches for 544 yards. But these two have struggled to stay out of the trainers room their entire careers and that cannot be ignored. And while Achane will never be a workhorse type running back it's just a matter of time before his playbook expands. The rookie possesses serious upside and the fearlessness needed to make plays in the middle of the field.
Bottom line, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are simply place holders. Devon Achane is the horse to back in this race.

Dynasty Dilemma: Devon Achane

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Picking the right piece of ambiguous backfields can be one of the biggest advantages in fantasy football. People who sided with Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, and Jerick McKinnon last year know exactly what I mean, as those three were probably on a lot of championship teams. People who sided with Damien Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire also know what I mean, for the exact opposite reason. This year, is there a tougher backfield to figure out than the one in Miami? Raheem Mostert was the lead guy last year, with Jeff Wilson providing a handful of useful fantasy weeks. Now, third round pick Devon Achane joins the party. Here are my thoughts on whether you should hang on to Achane and hope he beats out those above him, or if you should move him in hopes of getting more immediate production.

 

REASON TO BUY

 

McDaniel’s Preferred Archetype

Devon Achane’s success up to this point and moving forward will come largely from one thing. Speed. He was the fastest running back at this year’s combine and finished behind just two players in the entire class. You know who else had elite 40-yard dash times? Raheem Mostert and Elijah Mitchell, who were the leading rushers of the last two Mike McDaniel offenses. McDaniel has nearly mastered the wide zone run scheme, which best accentuates the speed rushers he has had. This bodes well for Achane’s outlook in the Miami offense.

 

Draft Capital

A third round pick isn’t necessarily “elite” draft capital, but it is certainly nothing to scoff at in the running back world. In each of the past three drafts, only three running backs have been selected prior to the third round, with seven others (Achane not included) going in the third round. Of the seven third round picks, and of the four that have played snaps in the NFL, two of them have already seen a significant role in their team’s offense. Typically, a team won’t use a day two pick on a running back unless they plan on giving them at least a chance to have a worthwhile role on the team. What also helps Achane’s outlook is the fact that both Mostert and Wilson have potential outs in their contracts after this season, which could open the door for Achane to become the feature back in as little as a year.

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Competition

Remember when I talked about the four third round running backs who have played NFL snaps from the past three draft classes? Well, one of the two that hasn’t been successful is Trey Sermon. Drafted by San Francisco (whose offensive coordinator at the time was McDaniel), Sermon was cut from the team in his first season after being surpassed by fellow rookie and sixth round pick Elijah Mitchell. This shows that McDaniel is more than willing to move on from higher draft capital in favor of better players. If Mostert and Wilson control a significant amount of the workload this season, the Dolphins could easily move on from Achane like San Francisco did with Sermon.

 

Slight Frame’s Lack of Proven Success

I want you to listen to this next stat closely, because it is very important. Since 2013, not a single running back under 200 pounds has had multiple top-25 fantasy seasons. That means, in the past 10 seasons, no sub-200 pound running back has had more than one RB2 or better season. That is NOT a good sign for Achane. What makes matters even worse is that he isn’t even close to the 200 pound threshold. He weighed in at the NFL combine at 188 pounds. There are only 15 running backs in that time frame to weigh in at less than 188 pounds, and the only somewhat relevant name of those is Tarik Cohen. History is meant to be broken, but it is also a very good baseline for what to expect.

 

VERDICT

If you were a bottom tier team who was able to get Achane in the early second round, I would consider holding onto him in hopes that he is able to overtake Mostert and Wilson in the next year or two. Your team is likely not close to competing anyway, so you can afford to wait on him. 

If you were a top tier team and grabbed him at the end of the first round, I would be looking to move him for someone who can help you immediately. If you could trade him for someone like Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, or even a lower upside but immediate producer like Isiah Pacheco, I would make the move and try to go all in on a championship run while your team is at its peak. Achane is a tough call, but I would base your decision more on how your team is sitting instead of him and his situation.

 

HOLD

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

 

Tyreek Hill is one of the most popular wide receivers in the NFL and in fantasy football. His popularity is partly thanks to his flashy playstyle and cheeky attitude in the game. Hill is now going into his eighth year in the league. We all know his name, and we all know his game. Speed. Speed is Hill's game, and boy, does he do it well. 

 

With a career total of 598 receptions, 8,340 receiving yards, and 63 touchdowns, Hill has quite the NFL career totals. He is still in his prime at 29 years old, and I don't see him slowing down anytime soon.

 

 

REASONS TO BUY

 

CONSISTENCY

Tyreek Hill has been at the pinnacle of fantasy wide receivers for over half a decade and has a great outlook going into the 2023 season. Hill's consistency comes in more than just a fantasy point aspect, too. Hill has played in all 17 games of the last two seasons. He has missed a mere six games in a seven year career so far. Unheard of in today's NFL.

As great as health is, let's look at some of Hill's best years with the overall fantasy finish:

2017 (WR4 STD WR8 PPR) -   105 targets, 75 receptions, 1,183 yards, and 7 touchdowns

2018 (WR1 overall) – 137 targets, 87 receptions, 1,479 yards, and 12 touchdowns

2020 (WR2 overall) – 135 targets, 87 receptions, 1,276 yards, and 15 touchdowns

2021 (WR7 STD WR6 PPR) - 159 targets, 111 receptions, 1,239 yards, and 9 touchdowns

2022 (WR3 STD WR2 PPR) – 170 targets, 119 receptions, 1,710 yards, and 7 touchdowns

 

It simply doesn't get more consistent than this. In 2022, Hill hit career highs in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. Last year, while ranking 29th among WRs in snaps played, Tyreek led the league in yards per route run (YPRR) with an incredible 3.20. The next closest receiver was Justin Jefferson, with 2.62 YPRR. He also finished 3rd in the NFL in target share with 30.1% of his team's targets. This was only behind Adams at 32.3% and Kupp, who only played nine games, at 30.9%. With another year for Tua to improve and McDaniel to get more comfortable, I don't see Hill's stats going any lower this upcoming season. Also, look for that seven touchdown mark to get closer to or even go over double digits.

 

COACHING

Mike McDaniel had an up-and-down first year with the Miami Dolphins in 2022, finishing 9-8. Say what you will about Mike McDaniel and his professionalism. Two things are clear; his players love playing for him, and he knows the game of football very well. McDaniel calls his own plays, coming from an Offensive Coordinator job in San Francisco before going to Miami. The Dolphins finished sixth in total yards and yards per game last year. For Hill's side of it, they finished fourth in passing yards per game, so even better for him. With just one year under his belt as a Head Coach, I'm excited to see what McDaniel can get going in his second year in 2023.

 

WEEK-WINNING ABILITY

There are very few players across all of fantasy football that can get you a win on any given week by themselves. Hill is undoubtedly one of those players. Hill has scored 20+ points in over thirty games, 30+ points in eight games, 40+ in two games, and 50+ points in one game in his career. For fantasy purposes, these numbers can barely be matched by anyone to ever play in the NFL. When Hill scores 20+ points, you are in a great position to win your fantasy week against your opponent.

 

 

 

REASONS TO SELL

 

OFF-THE-FIELD ISSUES

Issues for players off of the field can be many things. However, Hill's issues have all had a common denominator from him. Violence. From a domestic violence arrest in 2014 in college, to a child abuse investigation in 2019 during his time with the Chiefs, and most recently, an assault and battery allegation in 2023 while with the Dolphins. The NFL did not suspend Hill on either occasion.

 

AGE

We must discuss age if we are really trying to poke holes at Hill. At nearly 29.5 years old as a wide receiver, he is in an age bracket that doesn't typically see a ton of production value in fantasy football. There is always a year for wide receivers where they take a big step back in productivity right before their falling off. The question is, is this Hill's year to take a step back?

 

POSSIBLE RETIREMENT

Hill has told reporters that he will finish his current contract with the Dolphins and then retire following the 2025 season. He isn't the first player to give a retirement announcement early, and he won't be the last. But will he really stay true to his word? He also wouldn't be the first player to say he would retire and then either not retire or retire for a short period. However, Hill does have a plan that he talked about when he initially mentioned retirement. He wants to get deep into the competitive video game scene. If you have yet to watch him stream on Twitch, you should. He is already using his popularity and platform to create a following and hopes to build a team of content creators and athletes alike. In the same interview, Hill also mentioned getting into the business side of football and coaching. It seems as if only time will tell.

 

 

VERDICT

There have been very few wide receivers to give us a run of fantasy dominance like Tyreek Hill has given us over the last seven years. Hill holds the record for the most receiving yards through the first nine games of an NFL season with a whopping 1,104 yards. The stats are there, and when you watch him live or on tv, you are always watching and waiting to see him torch the defense and throw up his classic peace sign. 

 

So, what is the right move to make with Tyreek Hill in fantasy football?

 

It is rare to see a 29-year-old wide receiver in people's top 10 dynasty list for WRs, yet Hill is in most of them. So, for dynasty purposes, you have two options. First, you can keep him and ride out the rest of his years, however long that may be. Second, you can trade him away for younger assets that you hope can develop into stars. It very well may take something like retiring for the gaming scene to end such a fantastic career like Tyreek's, so we can see what the right choice is.  Personally, I think I am riding out the rest of Hill's career alongside him and hoping the ship doesn't go down sinking. Hill has been far too dominant to let slip away. Also, the agony of playing against him after trading him away seems too great. That being said, if you are a rebuilding team or know someone in the middle of a championship window that needs WR, you may be able to get great value and move on from him. For me, it would take one of the young and proven studs like Wilson, Olave, London, plus more for me to part ways with Hill.

Here at Dynasty Pros, we mainly focus on Dynasty Leagues. However, for redraft leagues, you should be taking Hill in the first round with no questions asked. Chase, Jefferson, and Kupp are the other receivers in the tier with Hill, and all four have a legit argument for the WR1 spot. Hill is a top 6/7 pick and can be argued as a clear top 3 choice. His price is high, but so is his consistent output. You can feel very confident with Hill as your WR1 for your team. Starting your draft with Hill, your team is now very flexible for your next pick. You can grab a top-tier RB and have balance. You could also afford to go early QB/TE in Round two or three, with Hill making up for lost points elsewhere. 

 

HOLD

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Tua Tagovailoa

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tua Tagovailoa

 

Tua Tagovailoa is another divisive player in the fantasy space right now. Some feel he should never play again because of his concussions sustained last year. Others say he is obligated to fulfill the contract he signed. Tua said he plays because he loves football, his locker room, and cares about his legacy. You can't fault him for that. 

 

His career stats are quite impressive for three years in the league with 34 starts, and  a 65.7% completion percentage, 8015 yards, 52 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, in real life football and fantasy he is a top 15 asset when healthy. Let’s dive into why you should buy Tua Tagovailoa first. 

 

REASON TO BUY

 

COACHING

Undoubtedly, having a coaching staff that believes in you makes a difference. Unlike the Trey Lance situation, the Dolphins have a plan and are backing the drafted player, and willing to adapt with Tagovailoa. Mike McDaniel, though unorthodox, knows how to use his 25-year-old quarterback. Besides the previous coaching staff in 2020 and 2021, McDaniel and upper management finally got the weapons the team needed. 

 

WEAPONS

The weapons that are moving the needle are Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua has had his production increase every year and it helps when you get Waddle in the 2021 draft and then get Hill from a trade in 2022. They have dramatically helped Tua grow each year and their stats prove it. Tyreek Hill one year with the Dolphins: 119 receptions, 1710 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Jaylen Waddels two years: (2021) 104 receptions, 1015 yards, and 6 touchdowns, (2022) 75 receptions, 1356 yards, and 8 touchdowns. These two alone have shown Tagovailoa’s growth. 

 

CONSISTENCY

The stats for Tua Tagovailoa year after year is significant because of the constant progression we have seen from him. Just off yards alone he goes from:

 

2020 - 1814 yards, 9 games started, 10 games played. 181.4 yards per game.

2021 - 2653 yards, 12 games started, 13 games played. 204.1 yards per game.

2022 - 3548 yards, 13 games started and played averaging out to 272.9 yards per game. 

 

It looks the same for touchdowns and interceptions per season:

 

2020 - 11 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, making a 2.2 touchdown to interception ratio in 10 games.

2021 - 16 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, making a 1.6 touchdown to interception ratio in 13 games.

2022 - 25 touchdowns with 8 interceptions, making a 3.1 touchdown to interception ration in 13 games. 

 

Along with all of this, Tua is doing everything right this offseason. Gaining muscle, learning and improving his craft, and is saying all the right things. He is making some of his doubters into believers. The big outlier is injury.

 

 

 

RESON TO SELL

 

INJURIES

Tagovailoa has had a slew of injuries dating back to his college days and you can't deny that his size may be part of the issue. At 6-1, 217 pounds (before this offseason) in this modern NFL that is very hard to be playing any position, let alone the quarterback position under 230 pounds. In comparison to the other quarterbacks in the 2020 draft. He is the smallest. Joe Burrow, 6-4 220 pounds , Herbert 6-6, 236 pounds, Hurts 6-1, 231 pounds. Though not a significant increase in pounds, the height was the biggest concern. Hurts is the outlier with how much muscle mass he has but he is also the next injury prone one. 

 

His injuries include a dislocated hip that sidelined him for the rest of the season in 2019 at Alabama, A few finger fractures, one in 2018 and 2021, a rib fracture, sprains, and strains to the ankle, hands, and feet. All amounting in college to just knocking him out the rest of the game but back the next. In the NFL, he has had multiple week injuries far more often. (Dynasty Sharks) 

 

The most problematic ones though are the back-to-back concussions in 2022. We all saw the gruesome concussion in week 4 when his fingers curled up and he was stretchered off. It made the NFL look into the concussion protocol a little more and everyone thought his season was done until he came back, where he got another concussion. Diagnosed on Christmas, and during the Packers game, he got another one and remained out for the remainder of the season. Tagovailoa has never played a full season yet in his career and this is the ultimate concern for the young quarterback.

 

 

VERDICT

 

Tua Tagovailoa has the “it” factor to his game. What does “it” mean to me? It means he will do anything to will his team to a victory. In college, he comes in for Jalen Hurts at halftime of the national championship game to comeback and win against Georgia. 2 weeks after tightrope ankle surgery, charges an, albeit unsuccessful, but valiant comeback to LSU, the eventual national champions. He was finally showing it in the NFL last year, 8-3 going into week 13 and the Dolphins started to implode. Hard to tell if it was the rookie coaching staff, or players not executing but Tua didnt lose a game he played in last year until week 13. 

 

Unfortunately, his body just hasn’t held up for him so far. I do believe in his coaching staff and a healthy offseason that the Dolphins can be a decent team with Tua at the helm. As long as he stays healthy real life football will be happy. His completion percentage is what sticks out to me, as a rookie(2020) he had 9 starts with a completion percentage of 64.1. 2021 had 67.8, and 2022 64.8. He knows where he needs to put the ball but also needs to improve his pocket awareness to help with the injuries, but in due time, we will get to that.

 

In fantasy I come up with the same outcome. With the constant rise in production he is projecting to be a top 10 with top 5 fantasy stat potential. In redraft 1 QB leagues I will be targeting Tua often, because of what happened last year everyone will be worried and he will slip a little in rounds drafted. Take the second flex option first and then take Tua as your QB and have a stacked team in other positions.

 

Superflex leagues you can never have too many quarterbacks. They get the most points if you have 2 top 15 quarterbacks and if you have one and need another, find the Tua owner and use the Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator, this is a trade that I proposed that should put some perspective on how quarterbacks should be treated.

Screenshot_20230703_104831_Docs

Dallas Goedert’s year produced 168.7 in 12 games last year and 192 the year before where he played 15 games. Like Tua he cant stay healthy, but in fantasy, we all know tight end is a barren wasteland. If someone is willing to give up Tua, throw this trade in your league and see how it works out. For comparison, Tua’s best year of fantasy points (21.6 pts per game) was 280.92 in 13 games. Which was 15th in standard and PPR leagues for quarterbacks. So even when Goedert is healthy, the most average quarterback is still more valuable.

 

Use Goedert as a good trade piece to try to get your other QB you need for superflex leagues. With his top 10 upside he is a buy. If you are the Tua owner, I would consider this trade but possibly counter to something they wouldn't want to do to see how much they want him. In the end, they won't bite. If you own, hold on to him for at least another year and hope the injury bug has left him.

 

BUY (if you own HOLD)

AFC East Predictions

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AFC East Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

 

As we continue our experiment trying to predict the finishes for each team in the NFL, we turn our sights to the AFC East.  Boasting one of the youngest quarterback groups in the entire league, you have to wonder how long it will take a couple of them to truly succeed.  But with all the growing pains, there is also much excitement brimming for these young gunslingers.  Here are my thoughts on the AFC East in 2022.

 

Buffalo Bills

Record in 2021: 11-6-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 13-4-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Boasting who many consider the best quarterback in the game today, Josh Allen sure has a slew of weapons at his disposal.  Not only that, but the defense is arguably the best in the league.  And with the recent addition of Von Miller, we can only imagine what that defense is capable of.  The biggest worry for many is the backfield situation.  Devin Singletary was fantastic to close the season, but he hasn’t shown the consistency that instills trust.  Adding James Cook to the mix muddles the situation to be sure.

 

Situation to watch

If you didn’t watch the insane playoff showdown between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes last year, please go and view it.  Some are calling it the most exciting playoff game ever.  I am super curious to see how Josh Allen rebounds from losing to the Chiefs in back to back seasons.  Will they be able to take that next step past seventeen games or will they be plagued with another early exit?  Of all the situations to watch in this series of articles, this one will take the longest to unfold.

 

Conclusion

The Buffalo Bills are rock solid from top to bottom.  The list of holes on this squad is extremely minimal, and with Josh Allen leading the way, there’s always a dog in the fight.  There is only one team in the league that I have predicted to have a better record than the Bills in this upcoming season.  It’s almost a certainty that they take the division yet again and be a front runner for Super Bowl contention.

 

New England Patriots

Record in 2021: 10-7-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The strength of the Patriots is the same as it’s always been.  Even though Tom Brady is arguably the best to play the game, the Patriots were and still are the epitome of a team.  Bill Belichick continues to show that if you want to play for his team, you’d better fall in line.  That being said, Stephon Gilmore leaving didn’t help last season and JC Jackson departing this offseason hurts their playoff chances even more.

 

Situation to watch

Although most people are watching for Mac Jones’s continued growth, I’m extremely curious as to what the future holds now that Josh McDaniels is gone.  His 18 year career with the Patriots leaves a sizable hole.  Both Matt Patricia and Joe Judge return to the organization with new jobs; tag teaming the void left by McDaniels at offensive coordinator.  You have to wonder what that change will bring about.

 

Conclusion

There’s something both comforting and maddening when it comes to the New England Patriots.  Bill Belichick is just on another level, so you can’t question how he runs the ship; but I’d be remiss if I wasn’t worried.  Not only have the Patriots regressed, both the Dolphins and Jets have improved substantially.  And the Bills are, of course, the Bills.  It’s going to be an uphill battle to make the playoffs in 2022.

 

New York Jets

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

In case you missed my recent article on the Jets, they’re one of the most improved teams in the league.  In this year’s draft, they addressed many issues.  Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will inject thunder and lightning into this offense moving forward.  It’s a catch 22, however, as last season they were already the third youngest team in the league.  It’s going to take time to get this train to full speed.

 

Situation to watch

Elijah Moore was one of the most exciting players to watch last season.  On one of the league’s worst offenses, featuring an inexperienced and ineffective quarterback, he still shone brightly.  Battling injuries off and on, he finally succumbed to a season ending injury.  I want to know how he not only rebounds, but fits in with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall coming to town.  Will he take a back seat or take the spotlight?

 

Conclusion

Like I said in my article, I may be the most bullish non Jets fan in the community in how I see the Gang Green for 2022.  While I don’t see them winning the division or even close to it, I can see them battling hard and making lives difficult for other teams in a way we haven’t seen in over a decade.  While a wild card will still be a journey to get to, the basement dwelling is no more.  A new era is beginning, I’m sure of it.

 

Miami Dolphins

Record in 2021: 9-8-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 10-7-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

You have to have some grey in the beard to remember the last time the Dolphins had an elite tandem at wide receiver.  With the addition of Tyreek Hill, we’re going to see things through the air that we haven’t seen since Dan Marino was throwing to the “Marks Brothers”.  Obviously, the biggest question mark is the ground game.  Miami hasn’t had a consistent starter in almost around a decade and it’s more convoluted now than ever.

 

Situation to watch

Tua Tagovailoa is the situation that nearly everyone following this team is watching closely.  It’s not his fault that the Dolphins chose him instead of Justin Herbert, but ownership, management and fans alike blame him nonetheless.  They are slow to shy away from the success Herbert is having elsewhere and the rocky path Tua has given them.  The time must be now for any faith to remain in Tua leading this squad.

 

Conclusion

I can’t be alone in my optimism for the Miami Dolphins moving forward.  Last season, the Dolphins were inches away from the wild card as they sported a seven game winning streak right after suffering a seven game losing streak just before.  With Connor Williams, Terron Armstead and Tyreek Hill being brought in for support, there are no more excuses.  And I, for one, have the Dolphins as a pretty good bet to be one of the teams to represent the AFC come January.