Melvin Gordon

Post Draft Report: Broncos

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Post Draft Report: Broncos

By Zach Owen

Draft Picks

  • Round 1, Pick 9: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
  • Round 2, Pick 35: Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
  • Round 3, Pick 98: Quinn Meinerz, OG, Wisconsin-Whitewater
  • Round 3, Pick 105, Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State
  • Round 5, Pick 152, Caden Sterns, S, Texas
  • Round 5, Pick 164, Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana
  • Round 6, Pick 219, Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
  • Round 7, Pick 237, Kary Vincent, CB , LSU
  • Round 7, Pick 239, Jonathon Cooper, LB, Ohio State
  • Round 7, Pick 253, Marquiss Spencer, DE, Mississippi State

Notable Free Agency Moves

  • Additions
    • Teddy Bridgewater, QB
    • Mike Boone, RB
    • Ronald Darby, CB
    • Kyle Fuller, CB
  • Losses
    • Phillip Linsay, RB
  • Re-Signed
    • Shelby Harris, DE
    • Justin Simmons, S
    • Von Miller, LB

One of the biggest concerns going into 2021 for the Broncos was QB and a lot of people were surprised when they didn’t draft one at #9, especially with Justin Fields (one of my favorites in this class) being available. They did pick up Teddy Bridgewater, who will compete but likely isn’t much of an upgrade over Drew Lock if at all. There’s also rumors about the Broncos picking up Aaron Rodgers, who would be a major upgrade and put this team in a position to compete right away. Right now though it is just a rumor so it’s best just to assume it’s going to be a QB competition between Lock and Bridgewater. Another offensive need of theirs was at RB so drafting Javonte Williams to pair with Melvin Gordon has given Denver a pretty solid RB duo. They should also be getting Courtland Sutton back from injury which coupled with their young receivers taking a step forward (TE Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler) will really help this offense. 

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos definitely did some work beefing up the defense this offseason. They added and re-signed multiple CBs in addition to bringing back big impact players like Von Miller and Shelby Harris. With all that, their defense is going to be pretty tough in all areas of the field. Will it be enough to overcome their shortfall at QB? I’m not convinced, though it has been done before.

Fantasy Highlights

The biggest question for the Broncos right now is clearly their QB. Drew Lock left a lot to be desired last year and many fans were ready for them to draft one with the 9th overall pick. The Broncos did not so we’re left with an awkward competition at QB. It seems like they want Lock to be their guy and Bridgewater is there to light a fire under Lock to get him to take a step forward. I think either of these guys could end up with the starting job though so neither will really be worth a whole lot until that is decided. I think Lock has the highest ceiling since he is younger and definitely could take a step forward while we pretty much know what Teddy can do. Regardless, either of them will be set up to succeed with all the weapons the Broncos have.

Now outside of QB, the Broncos have a lot to be hopeful for on offense. They have multiple very good receiving options that will help stretch the field. Cortland Sutton has been a star before getting injured last year and I expect him to get back to form in 2021. There is definitely some concern since ACL tears can sometimes cause lingering issues but I wouldn’t be concerned just yet. Sutton is actually probably a good value pick up in Fantasy due to his injury concerns. I also think Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant are pretty good buys in Dynasty since I expect both of them to take a big step forward this year. Coupled with the QB question marks, all three of these guys could be pretty good value pick ups.

Finally a look at the RB group for Denver. Again, they are set up pretty well with some good options to run out each week. Melvin Gordon was a pretty good value pickup before the draft but adding Javonte Williams (one of my favorite RBs in this class) will definitely cut into that. I don’t expect Williams to be a workhorse right off the bat but I could see him taking over a good chunk of the work as the season goes on. Gordon should still have some value though, especially at the beginning of the year. So if you’re competing and RB needy, now is probably a pretty good time to pick him up for cheap. Don’t expect to hold onto him all season though. See how things develop and if you do have him or end up buying him, I’d look to sell him towards the early-middle part of the season (think around week 6 or 7) when I expect Williams to get more heavily involved.

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our FINAL stop in the team breakdown by divison is a division that has one of each draft target category. The AFC West has 1 FADE, 1 NEUTRAL, 1 BUY, and 1 BIG BUY. Before we get into the division featuring the reigning Super Bowl Champs, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Los Angeles Chargers

With significant offensive changes, the LA Chargers come into this season as a FADE. Having some very weapons questions of QB play and quality linger, which as an overarching theme matters the most in real and fantasy football.

QB Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert: Deep league priority FAs for matchup streaming. Taylor has shown to be a useful fantasy option in years past but the young gun 1st round rookie, Herbert, is waiting wings for his opportunity to shine.

RB Austin Ekeler: “Ladder Pick”, low RB1, High RB2, 18-20% auction, early round 2, Ekeler remains a PPR monster and without Melvin Gordon in front of him he has tremendous upside. QB Taylor will look to be an efficient passer looking early and often for Ekeler! I’m smashing his name if he is available in the 2nd round!

RB Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley: Both late round pick or $1 deep auction, both are end of bench RB options with Melvin Gordon gone, opportunity knocks, both are talented and present plenty of upside. Even in a lesser offense, opportunity is appealing for fantasy. I prefer Kelley to Jackson but I’m going to keep a close eye on both!

WR Keenan Allen: Low-WR2 to high-WR3, 8-9% Auction, round 5, Tyrod isn’t known for his deep passing game, so that already will limit Allen’s upside. BUT Keenan Allen is an amazing talent and defensive separator that he could make Tyrod life very easy with his silky smooth route running!

Love the player and targeting him despite non-ideal QB situation.

WR Mike Williams: WR5, round 13, 1-2% auction, big play threat may be the latest unappealing piece of this offense with Tyrod under center. Not to mention his shoulder injury may keep him out for the month or so of the season.

(Keenan Allen may be a nice sell high candidate after the first couple weeks)

I like the idea of Mike Williams and the potential of what he can bring to the field but am worried how the QB play may limit his upside and general draft/weekly stock.

TE Hunter Henry: TE1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Henry is a great player when he is healthy! I believe Henry and Ekeler will benefit the most from Tyrod’s style of play. Having said that, I will be drafting a lot of Henry since I value him above his ADP.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders complete their move from the bay to the desert. The Raiders will be NEUTRAL for fantasy purposes for the inaugural Las Vegas season! Young promising talent is there which makes fantasy feasting a possibility.

QB Derek Carr: QB2, deep league priority FA, in the past Carr has been able to be useful for fantasy but the QB position is so deep that it’s likely he won’t be needed outside of a total catastrophe. Good and young weapons surround him, so matchup specific upside is there.

RB Josh Jacobs: RB1, 20-21% auction, round 2, an impressive rookie campaign was capped due to a shoulder injury. He remains the top rusher in this offense, but lacks pass-catching upside with the depth behind him on the roster. He will show why he was a 1st round talent!

RB Jalen Richard:  Late round selection in deep leagues or priority FA. Raiders have potential to be playing from behind, so rostering pass catching options like this may be valuable, especially for PPR.

WR Henry Ruggs: “Ladder Pick”, WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, Las Vegas selected Ruggs as the top WR in the draft. This is quite significant since they passed on Jeudy and Lamb to do so. Ruggs has unique speed and think the team will find creative ways of getting the ball in his hands.

He is a player I will be aggressively targeting in all draft formats. In the back half of drafts if I am able to get someone who I believe can be the next Tyreek Hill, I think it would be foolish to pass up on that kind of opportunity. Best ball target!

WRs Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfroe are both deep league late round stashes. Also worth an end of bench pick in 12 team leagues! Both can be a nice way to round out your bench. Edwards fits perfectly as the X receiver, I am very excited for his potential! Renfroe has PPR upside!

TE Darren Waller: TE1, 4-5% auction, round 8, Waller is somebody that everyone is rooting for. His personal story is a wonderful reminder that football is more than a game but also an opportunity to display personal redemption in magnificent fashion. He could be the focal point of this passing game and be a matchup nightmare for defenses!

Denver Broncos

The Broncos made one thing very clear over the last year: Drew Lock is their man! The Denver offense has some new upgrades which makes their squad a Buy!

QB Drew Lock: QB2, priority FA, because QB is so deep we can look to add Lock for bye week/injury replacement! With a full arsenal around him he is being set up to succeed, let’s hope he is up to the task!

RB Melvin Gordon: RB2, 9-10% auction, round 5, Gordon finds a new home in the same division. Narrative street truthers are salivating at the Broncos-Chargers matchups this season! Gordon is an upgrade to the RB group, but his value will be correlated to Lock’s success!

RB Phillip Lindsay: RB4, 4% auction, round 9-10, Lindsay can still be utilized as a FLEX in a deep league but is a nice bench stash being part of what should be a good offense. He will enter RB2 territory if Gordon were to miss time!

WR Courtland Sutton: WR2, 13-14% auction, round 3, Sutton had a breakout season and became one of the highest ranks risers from 2019 to 2020. Surrounded by good complimentary pieces, some drafters have shied away but I think it will only help him as he should still dominate targets in this offense.

WR Jerry Jeudy: WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, Jeudy somehow lasted to Denver at 15th overall. This was an easy selection for the Broncos as he was arguably the most pro-ready WR prospect in the draft! A great compliment to Sutton, Drew Lock is a lucky man!

WR KJ Hamler: Priority FA, Hamler is a unique talent with amazing speed, another piece of this offense that has cemented Denver’s trust in Drew Lock! Denver got him in the 2nd even after landing Jeudy! Best ball stash, I’m very exciting to see what he is able to do in the NFL!

TE Noah Fant: Low-TE1, 2% auction, round 12, impressive rookie campaigns are rare for TEs but he is very athletic and really adds to the versatility of Denver’s offensive core. I’ll look for him to improve on a successful year 1.

It’s all on Drew Lock, Denver believes that he is their guy. I will not hesitate to pounce on Lock this year, it could payoff in a big way! Not much to lose taking a chance on him as your QB2.

Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning super bowl champs are a BIG BUY! Patrick Mahomes alone gives each piece of the core upside, but upside exists already with high caliber talent surrounding the big-armed Mahomes!

QB Patrick Mahomes: The QB1, my QB1, 10% Auction, round 4, I typically like to wait on QB but Mahomes (like Lamar Jackson) are very tempting if you absolutely love your first 3 picks. A full aresenal surrounds this dynamic thrower. I don’t see any SB hangover in KC!

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: RB1, 24-26% auction, late round 1, CEH was part of the monster LSU national champion team, KC thought so too by selecting him as the 1st RB in the draft! This is significant because of the RB class that he was a part of.

Andy Reid’s RB history speaks for itself! CEH is a pass catching back in an elite offense where he scoring upside for himself as well as rushing upside at the end of games when KC has a big league. He is no-brainer top 10 RB worthy of 1st round selection!

RB Darrel Williams: late round-$1 Auction stash.  We want players in elite offenses such as this! If CEH busts as a rookie or misses time, both become potential FLEX options or more!

WR Tyreek Hill: WR1 (my WR3), 21-22% auction, round 2, Hill is simultaneously a floor and ceiling play each week. He can bust a matchup wide open with his big play and YAC ability! I hope to see a lot of peace signs from him this season!

WRs Mecole Hardman (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 13) and Sammy Watkins (WR5, $1-2 auction, end of bench WR stash) present massive boom bust potential, both are Best Ball targets and will big trade prices throughout the season! Health is Watkins main concern as targets is Hardman’s.

TE Travis Kelce: The TE1, 15-16% auction, round 2, Kelce like Kittle is worth the 2nd round selection, TE is deep but these 2 are in a tier of their own as they can be true difference makers week to week! How is a defense supposed to stop this team?!

High scoring contests seem likely, should be enough feasting to go around but any opposing teams offensive weapons in general have inherent upside against the Chiefs since teams will have to be aggressive if they want to have a shot against KC! Fun will be had if your roster some Chiefs!

Post-Hype Sleepers: Running Backs

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Running Backs

By Alex French

Welcome to the next in my post-hype sleepers series! Today, I’ve got some running backs to wet your appetite. Hear me out, as they may not be what you expect. First, let’s define what I mean by post-hype sleeper again. This is a player who received large amounts of hype prior to last season, but failed to reach those expectations. Lets jump right in!

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

It seems like a long time ago. But, at this time last year, Melvin Gordon was the consensus number 5 overall pick. He was coming off a 2018 season where he posted a true yards per carry of 4.8, which was a career high for him.  He led the league in catch rate at the running back position, and managed to score an average of 22.6 fantasy points per game. To put it simply, he dominated. 

Did someone say dominate? 

Speaking of dominating, his college dominator rating of 47.1 is 97th percentile. I believe that player is still there.  In 12 games with the Chargers last year, he had over 900 total yards. Gordon averaged 75.7 yards per game with 3.5 receptions per game. He showed flashes of the workhorse we all saw in 2019. 

This off-season he signed a two-year deal with the Broncos worth $16 million. That sort of financial investment leads me to believe he will serve as the primary back in what we believe to be an improved Broncos offense in 2020. I think Gordon is in line to finish as a top-end RB2 this year. He will also arguably have the best offensive line of his career with the Broncos also adding Graham Glasgow at Guard.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Like Gordon, last year Conner was a consensus first round pick.  If you owned Conner last year, you were severely disappointed.  However, the Steelers offense as a whole was a trainwreck without Big Ben under center. Roethlisberger is back at the helm and ready for week 1, which means this offense should be firing on all cylinders again. 

Conner struggled to stay healthy last season, and with Covid-19 this year, there’s always a risk. Conner has been hard at work to reshape his body this offseason, and now 4 years cancer-free, he should be poised to return to the 2018 form that helped people win fantasy championships. 

The Steelers have always been a team to feature one back, and that trend should continue. Look for Conner to provide potential RB1 upside in a much improved Steelers offense in 2020.

David Johnson, Houston Texans 

This pick may not be the most popular, but there are reasons for optimism here. Last season, Carlos Hyde received 245 carries in the Texans offense. Hyde is now in Seattle. 

Enter David Johnson. 

Johnson was the primary piece in the trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals, and he will be used as such. Many fantasy players may forget that before his injury, Johnson was performing as a top-10 fantasy option at the position. 

Johnson is in line for over 250 touches, there’s over 150 vacated targets from the Hopkins trade, and the offensive line in front of him will be better. All these things are a recipe for fantasy success for David Johnson in 2020. Research also shows a trend over the last few seasons, that more often than not, vacated targets tend to go towards running backs the following season. 

I understand that these names probably don’t give you the warm and tingly feeling, but all three have a great opportunity to return value in both dynasty and redraft formats. Particularly in dynasty formats, their value is trending the wrong direction. This means the opportunity cost to acquire them should be quite low. This screams value to me. In dynasty, it's important to play for 2-3 years at a time. Many players tend to look a little too far out, which can hurt them in the long run. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Questioning Courtland Sutton

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Questioning Courtland Sutton

By Isuf Gega

The questions for the Denver Broncos are endless. After signing stud running back Melvin Gordon to a two-year deal, Denver proceeded in drafting arguably the best wide receiver to come out of college in the last half decade, Jerry Jeudy. They followed that up with drafting wide receiver KJ Hamler with their very next pick in the second round. Furthermore, tight end Noah Fant is only going to improve in his second year in the league. This surrounds Sutton with a plethora of questions. How will the signing of superior pass catching back Melvin Gordon affect Sutton? Will Jerry Jeudy and the emergence of Noah Fant cut into Sutton’s target share? Can Sutton consistently finish top 20 with Drew Lock as his quarterback?

How will the signing of superior pass catching back Melvin Gordon affect Sutton?

Vic Fangio has not had any prior experience being a head coach, but in 2019 the Denver Broncos gave him an opportunity. Even though there is not a lot of head coaching history, Fangio’s 2019 season says a lot about how his running backs will be used. In Fangio’s first year, Denver’s rushing attempts per game were in the top half of the league and running backs saw a 23% target share, good enough to finish 9th on the season. While the running backs were made a priority, the receivers were not. The Broncos finished in the bottom 5 in passing yards per game. It’s clear that Fangio wants his offense to flow through the running backs and the offseason addition of Melvin Gordon only solidifies that statement.

Since 2017, Gordon has consistently finished top-12 in average targets per game with 5.2 targets in 2017, followed by 5.5 targets in 2018, and 4.6 targets in 2019. He demands targets and in Fangio’s offense he will certainly get that. Not only is Gordon an improvement as the pass catching running back, he is also dominant as a goal line back. In 2019, Gordon was top-10 in the league with 8 touchdowns inside the red zone. Gordon’s success rate of 27% was good enough to be top-5 amongst running backs that had at least 30 red zone attempts. Keep in mind, Gordon only played weeks 5-17 due to a contract hold out and still finished inside the top-10 for red zone touchdowns. Phillip Lindsay only had 5 touchdowns with an 18% success rate and Royce Freeman only had 3 touchdowns with a 12% success rate. Denver was unable to run the ball into the end zone, which is why Sutton received so many targets. That is all going to change with the addition of Melvin Gordon.

 Will Jerry Jeudy and the emergence of Noah Fant cut into Sutton’s target share?

Sutton had a target share of 26%, which is amongst the highest in the league. Melvin Gordon will do a good job in lowering that and so will Jerry Jeudy.  Jeudy was selected 15th overall by the Broncos, even though Sutton just had a breakout year. Jeudy’s route running ability allows him to be phenomenal after the catch -- and his tempo, speed, and quickness are going to give any defense a difficult time. Jeudy will without question be the primary slot receiver on day 1 and will end up being a safety valve for Drew Lock along with Noah Fant.

Fant finished the season as the TE16 with 562 yard and 3 touchdowns from 40 receptions. Fant had two excellent games with over 100 receiving yards and one came with Drew Lock as his quarterback. He is a true receiving tight end. Fant’s speed and size allow him to blow by defensive backs or make the contested catch over them. Fant led all tight ends in 2019 with 8.3 yards after the catch per reception. The only reason his number do not look better is simply because the opportunity was not there for him. Fant and Jeudy are both Fangio’s first round picks while Sutton was actually never drafted by the head coach and was part of the old regime. That does not mean that Sutton is going to be traded, it just means that Fangio might have different plans after drafting two rookie wide receivers in the top-2 rounds of the 2020 draft.

 Can Sutton consistently finish top 20 with Drew Lock?

Courtland Sutton was selected in the second round of the 2018 NFL draft and was expected to be the Demaryius Thomas replacement. After a decent rookie year, 704 yards and 4 touchdowns from 42 receptions, Sutton tore it up his second year. In 2019, Sutton finished with over 1,100 yards and 6 touchdowns on 72 receptions...good enough to make him the WR19 on the season. Sutton finished off the year as a top-5 wide receiver in endzone targets with 14.

However, that dominant 2019 season came with 3 different quarterbacks and Sutton was awful...yes awful...with Drew Lock. In the 5 games they played together, Sutton finished outside of the WR36 four out of five games. The Broncos played some horrible defenses during that stretch too that included the Chargers, Texans, Lions, and Raiders. The Chargers defense finished 27th in fantasy points, Texans finished 22nd, Lions finished 30th, and the Raiders defense finished 28th in fantasy points. These defenses were horrible and Sutton and Lock had very little to no connection. The worst part of it all is that the Broncos actually won 4 out of those 5 games, only losing to the Chiefs. The Broncos were winning without much involvement from their stud wide receiver. It does not mean the chemistry cannot grow between them, but it does raise a lot of questions.

 

 

 

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