Marvin Jones Jr.

NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome back! We now head North as we finish our tour of the NFC! This division will revolve around one primary theme: QB quality. But before we travel North, below is the foundation of the team breakdown by division series.

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Green Bay Packers

I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB. Aaron Rodgers makes this offense a BUY. He is still among the league’s best and his presence can open up the running game which will open up throwing lanes which will open up the running game which will open up the throwing…Rodgers is good!

QB Aaron Rodgers: Low-QB1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Rodgers continues to be a QB1 IRL and for fantasy. Since I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB, I will be getting him a lot if his ADP stays where it is. I love him in the Key & Peele sketch but I love him more on the field and on my rosters.

RB Aaron Jones: RB2 14-15% auction, late round 2, Jones exploded with 19 TDs last year. I see that number going down enough to benefit Rodgers more but still not enough to have me shy away from drafting him. Lead back in a good offense, should have plenty of scoring upside, QB play open will open up running game.

RB AJ Dillon: RB 5, 3-4% auction, round 13, Packers drafted him in the 2nd, raised some eye brows at the time, but this thicc and highly productive college RB is a backup worth rostering. His thighs have been the highlight of GB training camp…can we please get to the games already?!

RB Jamaal Williams: RB 5-6, deep PPR target, $1, last round/priority FA, has been productive when given the chance, this now crowded backfield, mainly made up of Dillon’s thighs, now hurts Williams upside a bit. Worth keeping an eye on!

WR Davante Adams: WR1, 20-21% auction, late round 1-early round 2, this target machine will continue to have Rodgers’ eye. Easy to imagine that he can lead the NFL in targets.

WR Allen Lazard: WR 5, 1-2% auction, round 14, as of now I believe he is the clear WR2, and amazing upside can be had if he is the bottom of your bench. At that cost you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. WR-Marquez Valdes-Scantling, priority FA, has flashed but should only be rostered in the deepest of leagues right now.

TE Jace Sternberger: TE2, $1 deep auction, priority FA, this breakout candidate is now healthy and longer in Jimmy Graham’s shadow. Keep an eye out!

Detroit Lions

The QB theme is clear in this division: if the QB has (or doesn’t have) real life and fantasy upside then I am targeting (fading) those players. The Lions remain NEUTRAL with Stafford leading the way with a very nice duo of WRs, a TE on the rise, and a backfield with upside.

QB Matthew Stafford, QB1, 3% auction, round 10-11, huge arm and nice weapons is a nice cocktail for fantasy intrigue. Best ball target!

RB D’Andre Swift: RB 3, 7-8% auction, round 7 is ideal, at one point in time Swift could have been considered the top RB prospect of his class. If you are a believer, you will be happy to see the dynamic group he was drafted with push down his value. Questions of committee usage linger. Difference maker in college, he could really boom with Stafford

RB Kerryon Johnson: RB4, 5-6% auction, round 9, looking to be splitting duties with Swift; Kerryon limitations have nothing to do with his talent but everything with his game day availability. I’m excited to get one of the two on my rosters!

WRs Kenny Golladay: (WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3) and Marvin Jones (WR3, 5-6% auction, round 8) are an excellent duo! I’m happy to roster either one. Golladay looks to further excel his gameplay and Jones is always a deep ball and TD threat, I’d be aggressive with him in Best Ball. WR Amendola deep PPR league target.

TE TJ Hockenson: High-TE2 with TE1 upside, 2-3% auction, round 13, he would be a full on TE1 if his ankle concerns weren’t lingering, but they are. Tons of upside but I would look to draft or stream another TE if he isn’t 100% to start the year. He may be fine still but would exercise caution.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings continue to play as an “old school” team. Gary Kubiak is the new OC and with a young TE on the rise and adding a 1st round WR, the Vikings are a Neutral offensive core with players primarily draftable at ADP. 2 Ladder Picks incoming…

QB Kirk Cousins: QB2 priority FA, $1 deep auction, the QB position is so deep that Cousins is undraftable in 12 team standard rule leagues. Having nice weapons in a good offensive make him intriguing as a bye week/injury replacement.

RB Dalvin Cook: “Ladder Pick” RB1, 25-27% auction, round 1, Dalvin is my RB4 and 4th overall player. The Vikings offense will go through him as HC Mike Zimmer look to run the ball, play good defense and limit TOs with efficient passing (like with passes to Cook). Volume!

RB Alexander Mattison: RB4-5, 2-3%, round 12, Dalvin Cook’s injury history made Mattison an extremely appealing asset in drafts last year. Cook kept him irrelevant. If Cook were to miss time he is the backup worth rostering.

WR Adam Thielen: “Ladder Pick”, WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3, one of my favorite players now stands alone as the top dog in this receiver corps. He will be an absolute target machine. OC Gary Kubiak has a stout history of feeding his WR1 targets. Volume!

WR Justin Jefferson: WR 4-5, 2-3% auction, the Vikings 1st round pick looks to fill big shoes with Stefon Diggs out of town. He comes into the season with a chip on his shoulder from the NFL draft being vocal about his displeasure becoming the 5th WR drafted. He will look to make the teams who passed on him sorry. Vikings got a steal and now have a highly motivated player. Buy!

TE Irv Smith Jr.: TE2, priority FA for starter injury/bye week replacement, Big buy for dynasty, TE Kyle Rudolph is still around, keep an eye out in deep leagues

Chicago Bears

In the NFL QB is king, so this offensive core will be a FADE for me this season. QB play limitations and a good defense could be a recipe for QB game managers and controlling the clock. Of course this is an over-generalization but Trusbisky under center doesn’t excite me.

QB Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles: We aren’t drafting these QBs, but I prefer Nick Foles to Trubisky at this point of their careers. I really like the idea of Mitch Trubisky but inconsistent execution has soured his outlook.

This is a shame because he has a nice duo of WRs in Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, and unique Swiss Army knife in Tarik Cohen that have their potential capped. These players are preferred with Foles under center.

RB David Montgomery: Low-RB2 (robust WR or elite TE), high-RB3, 10-12% auction, round 6, disappointing rookie campaign has lowered his cost, post-hype sleeper with upside. If he is your RB2, I would make RB a priority for the next 2-3 rounds after drafting him. Fingers crossed for a more efficient season.

RB Tarik Cohen: Low-RB3 while going robust WR, 5-6% auction, round 9, this zeroRB target is best utilized in PPR formats. A very unique player that has great pass catching upside.

WR Allen Robinson: Low-WR1, high-WR2, 13-14%, round 3, love the player, amazing talent, but has terrible QBs throwing him the ball for his entire career, including this year. Highly preferable to have Foles be the one throwing him the ball.

He is essentially QB proof but considering the other WRs that are drafted around him, I typically look elsewhere. He is exceptional but the offense is a FADE that is why I prefer to get him at a value rather than at ADP.

WR Anthony Miller: WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, an excellent complimentary receiver opposite Robinson, a great value late in drafts being an offenses’ 2nd WR. He is one of the first players I look to add into my draft queue.

The Bears are a team with 27 TEs (only 7, actually) and none of them draftable. Cole Kmet is an intriguing prospect for dynasty. Old TE favorite Jimmy Graham is worth keeping on your radar especially if Nick Foles is the QB.

It’s In The Cards

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It’s In The Cards

By Matt Kelley

The Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all had a  common thread when it came to fantasy WR production last season. Do you know what it was?  They all sustained two top 24 fantasy wide receivers. Five teams accomplished this in 2018 as well. So what leads to the ability for these teams to produce multiple top-end fantasy wide receivers, and what new team has the chance to provide this fantasy value this season? Let's take a look...

Pass Volume:

Of the four teams above, three of them were in the top-5 of pass attempts in the NFL last season. The lone team not in there was Detroit who finished with the 16th most pass attempts per game (35.7); 4 attempts less per game than Tampa Bay (39.4). Matthew Stafford only started eight games for the Lions before falling victim to a back injury. Through eight games, Stafford averaged about 36.4 pass attempts per game. While Stafford wasn’t throwing at a considerably higher pace, it’s likely the Lions would have thrown more in general if not for having to turn to David Blough and Jeff Driskel.  

Targets: 

The breakdown of targets for the players inside the top-24 WRs on these teams is as follows:

Atlanta Falcons: 

Calvin Ridley: 93 targets, 17.7% target share, 63 receptions

Julio Jones: 157 targets, 25.7% target share,99 receptions

Detroit Lions: 

Kenny Golladay: 116 targets, 21.1% target share, 65 receptions

Marvin Jones: 91 targets, 20.2% target share, 62 receptions

Los Angeles Rams: 

Cooper Kupp: 135 targets, 21.8% target share, 94 receptions

Robert Woods: 139 targets, 23.4% target share, 90 receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

Chris Godwin: 121 targets, 22.2% target share, 86 receptions

Mike Evans: 118 targets, 23.8% target share, 67 receptions

The team most unlikely to repeat in this group based on targets is Detroit. While both players are seeing a great target %, the low receptions mean they’ll need to make up for reception totals in half and full PPR settings in an effort to repeat. Additionally, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyreek Hill all finished outside of the top-24 last season, largely due to injury. There’s a strong chance those WRs find their way back inside the top-24, provided they have healthy seasons. Second year WRs D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin are all also threats to bolster their way into the conversation. 

Defense:

The more points a defense allows, the more an offense has to go back onto the field. Pretty simple. So for fantasy purposes, give us some bad defenses, some negative game scripts, and let those passes fly. All four teams mentioned above were in the bottom half of the league in points given up. While Tampa’s defense could improve as it’s unlikely Tom Brady throws for 30 interceptions...a la Jameis Winston, the efficiency should skyrocket and there will be enough NFC South shootouts to keep both Evans and Godwin well fed. 

What team can find their way into this list for 2020?

Arizona Cardinals: 

                   

The Arizona Cardinals acquired Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. Hopkins has seen 150 targets in each of the last five seasons. Yes, this is a different offense, however Arizona let up the 28th most points in the league, and they’ll need to throw to get back into games. While the Cardinals only threw the 18th most pass attempts in the league last season, 2nd year QB Kyler Murray should take a step forward in terms of taking less sacks, being more efficient, and seeing offensive drives continue, thus pass attempts will go up. 3rd year WR Christian Kirk fits the bill to join Hopkins as a top-24 WR. Kirk saw 108 targets for a 24.5% target share last season. With the addition of Hopkins, he’ll no longer need to operate as the team's WR1. While he may lose part of that target share % with Hopkins being a target hog, there will be plenty of volume and more quality targets for Kirk as Hopkins will likely draw top coverage. Kirk had 11 redzone receptions last season, 9th most in the NFL. He’s already a trusted target for Murray in the most important part of the field and is a great candidate to see a positive bump in touchdowns. Kirk is a steal right now in drafts going as WR38 and pick 95 overall in PPR leagues. Look for the Cardinals duo to join the ranks of the best fantasy WR tandems in the league.

Sleeper Files: Matthew Stafford

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Sleeper Files: Matthew Stafford

By Tommy Harvey 

(Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

In 2019, Matthew Stafford was well on his way to a career type year. Through eight games, Stafford had 2,499 yards passing, 19 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. His 312.4 yards per game were the second best in his career only to his 314.9 yards per game in 2011. He had a great chance to reach 5,000 passing yards for the second time with the Lions. Then, things took a bad turn for the Detroit quarterback. He fractured bones in his back against the Oakland Raiders and was eventually placed on season ending Injured Reserve. 

Now, headed into the 2020 season, Matthew Stafford is back and the Lions should be counting their blessings. In the eight games Stafford played in 2019, Detroit was 3-4-1. In the eight games after his injury, the Lions were a putrid 0-8 and averaged an underwhelming 192.3 yards per game through the air. Can you see his value??? 

Stafford has an exceptional wide receiver in Kenny Golladay, who is coming off consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola also return to go along with up-and-coming second year TE TJ Hockenson. In April, the Lions drafted RB DeAndre Swift out of the University of Georgia to pair with Kerryon Johnson in the backfield. The weapons are there for Matt Stafford to continue to put up monster numbers, and I don’t think he will disappoint. 

2020 Prediction and Fantasy Outlook: 

4,605 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 76 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 2 fumbles lost 

Matthew Stafford is being drafted on average as the QB13 in early 2020 fantasy drafts. If you can get him in that range, I’d consider him a draft day steal. I think his value is more in the QB8 range and could reach QB6 by the end of the season. His overall ADP is around 96th, which is the beginning of the 8th round in 12 team leagues. With my QB8 prediction, he should be going in the middle of the 6th round. 

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