Leonard Fournette

Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

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Buccaneers Breakdown: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

By Darren Smith

Let’s be honest, the Buccaneers were not on everyone’s short list to win Super Bowl LV, yet Tom Brady still finds a way. The Bucs had an up and down offensive year, but ended up 7th in total offense in the NFL in 2020. Bruce Arians stayed true to his pass heavy attack posting the 2nd most total passing yards in the league with 4626, falling just short of Kansas City.  As usual, the run game struggled with only 1519 total rushing yards - 28th in the NFL. With free agency upon us, there are going to be a lot of moving parts on the Bucs offense which means big implications for Dynasty managers. Here’s a breakdown of each position to help you decide what Tampa Bay skill positions you should Buy, Sell, or Hold.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady - Buy/Hold

Tom Brady is coming back for his 22nd season in the NFL on the last year of his contract with Tampa Bay. The 43 year old finished as QB7 in 2020 and continued his elite numbers with over 4600 passing yards and 40 TDs. There’s not much talk in Dynasty leagues about Brady due to his age, but the value is still there. If you own Tom, you might as well keep him for the 2021 season as you will only return some scraps in a trade. If you are desperate for a QB and have a shot at the championship, go out and buy Tom for a small price as a nice filler for a future QB.

RUNNING BACKS

Leonard Fournette - Hold

Fournette finished as the RB 35 in the 2020 season - but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Leonard missed four games due to injury, and had a split role with Ronald Jones - playing about 50-60% of snaps in the majority of games. When he was active, Fournette still showed explosiveness and a continued ability to break tackles down the field. Even with his limited playing time, he still managed to catch 37 passes out of the backfield giving him some value in PPR leagues. Playoff Lenny made a big splash in the postseason this year showing that he deserved to be on a Super Bowl winning team, but is on the last year of his contract with the Bucs and is now a UFA. Expect him to move on from Tampa Bay and to sign to a new team by the beginning of next season. At 26 years old, he can still be a big fantasy impact on an RB needy organization. Fournette is a firm hold in Dynasty, or a buy if you’re feeling risky.

Ronald Jones - Sell

Let’s start by saying it’s hard to be a RoJo fan. He’s not much of a pass catcher, low utilization in the Red Zone, and has some fumbling issues making him a thorn in Bruce Arians' side. But Jones actually had a good 2020 season. Finishing as the RB20 in PPR leagues, Ronald posted nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 7 TDs. There were some moments however that left a sour taste in the mouths of the managers that started him in Weeks 8 & 9 for example. Rushing only 10 total times over 2 games, Jones scored an average of 3.5 points over these weeks. When RoJo makes a mistake, Arians pulls him and holds that grudge for the remainder of the game. This wild inconsistency makes managers lose confidence in starting him week to week, and don’t expect this to change in the near future. Capitalize on Ronald’s 2020 season and sell him in your Dynasty leagues.

Who would you rather own? Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones? Fantasy Twitter picks RoJo:

Ronald Jones: 65%

Leonard Fournette: 27%

Keyshawn Vaughn: 8%

Honorable Mentions: 

Keyshawn Vaughn - Hold

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Evans - Buy

Mike Evans came off of a stellar 2020 year grabbing the WR11 spot in PPR. Evans to me has always been an underrated elite WR. He averages as the WR12 in the 7 years he has completed in the NFL, and has never had a season below 1000 receiving yards. 2020 brought on one of his best seasons to date with 13 TDs and 1006 yards on 70 receptions. Evans has remained healthy throughout his career showing durability and consistency. Look for Evans to continue at this elite level for a minimum of 4-5 more years, no matter the next QB throwing to him. Signed up through 2023 with the Bucs, he remains in the pass heavy Arians offense. Trade that first round rookie pick and avoid the lottery pick by buying Mike Evans in Dynasty leagues. His current trade value is much lower than the value he brings to your team.

Chris Godwin - Sell

Chris Godwin finished as the WR31 PPR in 2020, but also dealt with injury early on in the season. Injury risk aside, he was consistent when he was on the field, posting an average of 15.6 fantasy points per game from Week 9 on. The Godwin vs Evans debate is an intriguing conversation: 68% of Twitter voters would rather have Chris Godwin on their dynasty teams, as Godwin is the younger player. Believe it or not, Godwin is only 2 years younger than Evans (25 vs 27), so there isn’t much of an age gap as people may think.Godwin is also a UFA this season. Chris has publicly addressed that he is willing to play on the franchise tag to stay in Tampa Bay, but this means only one guaranteed season on one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL. Pending on the organization's decision, Godwin could end up in a much less favorable situation than he’s in now. The Bucs clearly aren’t ready to blow the bag on a big time contract. The talent is there for Chris, but it’s not certain that his situation is going to get any better than staying in Tampa Bay. Sell Godwin at his peak value now - especially if you can acquire Evans plus some rookie draft picks.

Who would you rather own? Chris Godwin or Mike Evans? Fantasy Twitter picks Godwin:

Chris Godwin: 68%

Mike Evans: 31%

Antonio Brown: 1%

Honorable Mentions: 

Antonio Brown - Hold

Scott Miller - Buy 

Tyler Johnson - Buy

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski - Hold/Buy

Gronk was a pleasant surprise in the 2020 season. No one knew what to expect with Gronk returning to the NFL with the greatest QB of all time, but it went just about as well as it could. The 31 year old was TE10 on the year posting 623 yards and 7 TDs. Gronk is still thinking about his future in the NFL, but if he decides to return in 2021, it will be for the Buccaneers. If he’s on your Dynasty team, he’s worth a stash next year as a Red Zone threat, especially in 2 TE leagues. With the tight end market so scarce, Rob may even be worth sending out an offer, as you can get him for dirt cheap. Hold if you have him, and possibly send a late 3rd/early 4th round rookie pick to buy if you’re feeling a little adventurous. 

OJ Howard - Buy

 

In the event that Gronk doesn’t return, OJ Howard may be worth taking a look at in Dynasty leagues. At only 26 years old, Howard hits free agency with a comeback on his mind. Injured for the majority of 2020, OJ only played 4 games. However, he showed flashes of his true self early on in the season, scoring 2 touchdowns and averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game. Most managers forget about him in Dynasty, so throw out a cheap offer for him in deeper TE leagues and see what comes back. A fresh start for OJ Howard could mean big value to come if he lands a starting role, making him a buy.

Who would you rather own? Rob Gronkowski or OJ Howard? Fantasy Twitter picks Howard:

OJ Howard: 61%

Rob Gronkowski: 30%

Cameron Brate: 9%

Honorable Mentions: Cameron Brate - Hold

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang and comment your thoughts.

Ahoy, Lenny!

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Ahoy, Lenny!

By Tommy Harvey

Leonard Fournette is headed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers....arrrrgggghhhh!  I don't know if he could be going to a more confusing backfield right now.  The deal on the surface looks like it could mean he will be the lead back.  However, if you dive deeper and have paid attention to what has been said, Ronald Jones could be in line for a good bit of work as well.

A lot has been made of videos that surfaced of Ronald Jones dropping passes recently in camp.  If you have read what has been said, HC Bruce Arians has been very complimentary of Jones.  Was the praise just coach speak, while trying to bring in Fournette behind the scenes?  Probably...

Surely, Fournette could have signed elsewhere if he wasn't going to come in and be the RB1 from the get-go.  It had been reported New England was in negotiations with the former Jaguar RB.  Fournette, although a headache at times, has been a highly productive RB.  In 2019, he finished as the overall RB6 in PPR leagues, as he ran for over 1,150 yards with 76 receptions.

I would assume he will come in and be the Week 1 starter, as Tom Brady may have had some influence in the signing if he didn't like what he saw out of Jones.  In a season that was supposed to be the season Ronald Jones broke out, it looks like that plan has probably been shelved for now.  While I don't foresee Fournette having an 1,100 yard season...or even 70+ receptions...I do see him being the main RB in an offense that will put up MASSIVE numbers.  He should be a high to mid range RB2.  Target him as such.

What’s Next for Leonard Fournette?

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What's Next for Leonard Fournette?

By Tommy Harvey

Monday morning, it was reported Jacksonville is releasing former 4th overall pick RB Leonard Fournette.  After already declining his 5th year option and not able to work out a trade, the Jaguars have now decided to clear Fournette's $4 million off the books. It's not very often a RB coming off a season with 1,150+ yards rushing and 76 receptions gets released.  By releasing him, any team is now free to place a waiver claim.  Who are the teams best suited to take a chance on the former Pro Bowler?

Chicago Bears

The Bears drafted RB David Montgomery last season out of Iowa State with hopes he would become the workhorse.  After a somewhat disappointing season, Montgomery was looking to prove his worth in 2020.  However, he suffered a groin injury last week and is expected to miss several weeks.  Chicago could use a proven veteran RB like Leonard Fournette to provide Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky a backfield threat.  Fournette would help solidify an offense that has lacked productivity in recent years.

Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler is a fantasy stud, but has never had more than 132 carries in a season.  There are hopes he can be a 3-down back, but bringing in Leonard Fournette would allow the Chargers to utilize Ekeler in a way he can be most productive.  LA drafted RB Joshua Kelley and brings back RB Justin Jackson, but neither Leonard Fournette.  With the departure of Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles could use a proven RB to replace the new Bronco.

New York Jets

Le'Veon Bell...Frank Gore...Kalen Ballage...YIKES!  Bell seems unmotivated, Gore is 80 years old, and Ballage (who failed his physical and is not a Jet yet) has been below average during his career in Miami.  Will Adam Gase go get Leonard Fournette?  He should!  Pairing him with Sam Darnold may keep the young QB from seeing ghosts.

Washington (Insert Name Here)

Washington is pretty much in the same boat as the Jets.  Derrius Guice was released earlier this summer, leaving a RB room of Adrian Peterson (another 80 year old), Antonio Gibson (rookie RB who was a WR in college), Bryce Love (injured since his Heisman worthy junior season at Stanford), and Peyton Barber (meh...).  With a lack of offensive weapons, Washington should go after Fournette.

New England Patriots

The Patriots seem to be in rebuild mode, but in a very mediocre AFC East, they could still make the playoffs.  You would think QB Cam Newton would love to have a RB with Leonard Fournette's ability in the backfield with him.  Sony Michel is injured and has been unproductive, James White is a 3rd down receiving back, Rex Burkhead has had injury problems in the past, and Damien Harris is unproven.  Harris could open the season as the starter, but Fournette would be a definite upgrade.

Other potential landing spots: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Seattle Seahawks

10 Bold Predictions

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10 BOLD Predictions

by Bob Miller

10. Brandon Cooks will finish as a top-15 WR in PPR.

104 receptions. 150 targets. 1165 yds with 7 touchdowns. That’s what DeAndre Hopkins' numbers were last year. Now he’s gone, leaving all those targets behind. By now everyone knows that you can’t count on Will Fuller to play in more than a handful of games each year, which opens things up for Brandin Cooks. Don’t worry about Randall Cobb. Deshaun Watson doesn’t look at the slot. He looks down field, and that’s where Cooks will be. Watson averaged 36 passes a game last year and ranked 4th in deep ball attempts. With Watson’s ability to extend plays and Cooks’ route running, you can expect a very productive season from a WR going in the 9th round and outside the top 40 WRs.

 

9. Cam Akers will finish as an RB1 this season.

If you think that Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown will be a factor, stop kidding yourself. If the Rams thought that, they wouldn’t have drafted Cam Akers so high. The Rams ran the ball 25 times a game, and that shouldn’t change with them lining up more in the 12 personnel this season. Todd Gurley finished as a top 15 RB last year, and LA was conservative with him. Akers is explosive and has good hands. I predict him to finish with 1,027 yds, 8 TDs with 41 rec, 287 yds, 2 rec TDs. That’s RB1 numbers.

 

8. Austin Hooper will finish outside the top-15 TEs

69. That’s usually a good number, but not in this case. Unfortunately 69 is the total amount of passes thrown to Tight Ends last year in Cleveland. Hooper finished as a top 10 TE last year in Atlanta on 97 targets. He’s not getting those targets in Cleveland folks. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry get the targets. They had 271 between them, and no other pass catcher had even 30 targets. He’s going to be one of those very good NFL players but an average fantasy asset. With a top 10 TE ADP, I’m staying far far away. In fact, if you own him in dynasty I’d strongly recommend cashing out on him while you still can.

 

7. Daniel Jones will finish as a top-7 QB

Jones looked great as a rookie. He put up some strong numbers with a limited cast around him. This year will be different. A healthy Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram with the emergence of newcomer Darius Slayton will provide plenty of weapons for the 2nd year quarterback. Oh, and let’s not forget about that running back for the Giants. What’s his name again? Oh yeah. Saquon Barkley, who is as good of a running back as we’ve seen in years. Don’t listen to the Madden Rankings. Those rankings are an embarrassment. Don’t be afraid of taking a chance on Danny Dimes. The Giants will be involved in a lot of shootouts. It’s going to pay off.

 

6. Kenyan Drake will finish as a top-6 RB

Let’s hope you weren’t playing against Drake in the fantasy playoffs last year. If that’s the case, then you probably lost. Drake was a league winner last year posting 39.50 points in week 15 and 33.40 points in week 16. It took Drake a little while to adjust after being acquired by the Cardinals mid season last year. He had 151 touches in the final 8 games. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com believes that Drake could surpass 350 touches this season. The acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins is going to open things up even more for Drake. He is excellent in the open field. With all of the receiving threats the Cardinals have, he will see a lot of touches in the open field. He is in the perfect situation, and very well could be this year’s Aaron Jones and lead the league in touchdowns. If Drake is your RB2 consider yourself lucky. If you have an opportunity to get him in dynasty, I’d strongly advise it. 

 

5. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will be a WR1 this season

Here’s a popular name as of late. There are quite a lot of people on the Hollywood Brown hype train, and for good reason. I have been high on Hollywood all off-season. Brown played with a screw in his foot last season and caught 7 touchdowns. Things are different now. Hollywood is healthy and motivated. He’s in the best shape of his life after adding 23 pounds of muscle this offseason. He has spent quite a bit of time with Lamar Jackson working on routes and timing. I expect big things from Brown this year as the Ravens’ clear number one wide receiver. With Lamar’s ability to extend plays, you can expect Marquise Brown to break free for a lot of big plays. Brown should exceed 70 rec, 1,000 yds, and 9 TDs. With players like Julian Edelman and Keenan Allen falling out of the top 12 WRs, expect Hollywood to join the WR1 club this season.

 

4. Leonard Fournette finishes as a top-8 RB

Pretty bold. I know, but I’m sticking to it. Jacksonville shopped Fournette this offseason with no takers. That’s good news for you Fournette owners out there. Last season, Fournette had 265 carries for 1152 yds and only 3 TDs. He also added 76 rec for 522 yds. That was good for 6th overall in PPR leagues. Just like last season, he is going to see a lot of touches. Expect similar carries and yardage with positive TD progression. He won’t have as many receptions due to the addition of Chris Thompson, but with Thompson’s injury history I’d still expect 50+ receptions for Fournette. He is an RB1 that you can get in the 4th or 5th round. Draft Fournette with little concern. 

 

3. Mike Evans will not finish as a top-24 WR.

This could be the boldest prediction of them all. The truth is that the addition of Tom Brady is bad news for Mike Evans owners out there. Brady just doesn’t throw the ball to outside WRs. The last outside WR to have any fantasy relevance was Josh Gordon a few years ago. Before that it was Randy Moss way back in 2007. Brady just doesn’t go that direction. In fact, no outside WR saw more than 54 targets last season in New England. Brady only works the middle of the field due to his loss of arm strength. None of this is good for Evans. I predict 56 rec, 928 yds, and 5 TDs. Finishing outside the top 24 WRs.

 

2. Cooper Kupp finishes as a top-3 WR in PPR. 

Kupp finished as a top 6 WR in PPR last year, so is this considered bold to say he finishes top 3? I’d say yes, because finishing top 3 puts you into elite status. Kupp had 94 catches on 134 targets last season with 1162 yds and 10 touchdowns. With Brandin Cooks gone I fully expect Kupp to see over 150 targets. As Jared Goff’s top red zone target, Kupp should eclipse double digit touchdowns again. The Rams should use more two tight end formations, but that won’t affect Kupp at all. He is Goff’s favorite target and will be peppered with targets again. I expect Kupp to have over 150 targets resulting in 111 rec, 1257 yds, and 13 touchdowns. With a 4th round ADP, he is an absolute steal similar to Chris Godwin last season.

 

1. Chris Godwin finishes as the overall #1 WR in PPR.

Tom Brady in Tampa is bad news for Mike Evans owners but it’s fantastic news for Godwin owners. We all know that Brady loves his slot receivers. Julian Edelman has flourished in Tom Brady’s offense for years. Edelman had 100 rec on 153 targets last season with 1117 yds and 6 touchdowns in New England. Last season in Tampa Godwin had 86 rec on 119 targets with 1333 yds and 9 touchdowns. That was good enough to finish #2 in PPR leagues. With Godwin expected to see 150+ targets this season I have him finishing as the #1 overall WR with 125 rec, 1475 yds, and 11 touchdowns. He is currently going in the 2nd round in most drafts. Take advantage.

*All predictions are based on PPR scoring.

You can follow me on twitter @DynastyProBob

ADP Early Values: AFC South

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ADP Early Values: AFC South

by Matt Kelley

We are now in July and folks are starting to turn on their spidey senses for fantasy football. If you’re reading this, those senses have probably already been on. We’ve talked NFC South value picks for where we are in the calendar year; let's shift our focus to the AFC South to talk about who you can snag at a value. As always, this article assumes a 12-team league and PPR scoring.

 

Houston Texans: Brandin Cooks

Well, the Texans certainly made some off-season noise, and it probably wasn’t what Texans fans were hoping for, when they shipped perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Deandre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson (there were some picks too, but...Deandre freaking Hopkins). That left the Texans with a pretty big hole at the wide receiver position. Brandin Cooks enters a WR corps that features Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb.

Cooks has four seasons in which he has compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards. Fuller, Stills, and Cobb have combined for one (Cobb, 2014). There are various reasons why that hasn’t occurred for these guys, but nonetheless Cooks comes into a situation with all of Hopkins’ vacated targets, Deshaun Watson - a quarterback in his prime, and by far the most accomplished WR. The Texans mark Cooks’ fourth team since entering the league in 2014.

His current ADP sits at WR 35, overall pick 73, in the top half of the sixth round. Teammate Will Fuller is going about ten picks before Cooks. Fuller has an electric connection with Watson when on the field but hasn’t started more than 11 games in the last three seasons, largely due to hamstring injuries. Cooks isn’t without risk as he has five documented concussions. The NFL has put more emphasis on concussions over the last several seasons, so it is worrisome that Cooks could be a hit away from leaving the field for an extended time.

By all accounts, Cooks has noted his health is fine, and he seems to be ready to forge on. If he can stay on the field, he’ll likely be an absolute steal at this point in a draft as there aren’t too many guys going this late with a proven 1,000 yard upside.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Marlon Mack

I know...and Jonathan Taylor, right? I know. Marlon Mack is currently going as RB 42, overall pick 113, in the top half of round 9. What I’ve taken away from the Colts coaching staff so far this offseason is that they believe this will be a committee situation in the backfield.

It’s no secret that Indy has a great offensive line, which is welcoming news to any RB and most likely more so to new incoming QB, Philip Rivers. With the offseason shortened, the Colts could turn towards the running game as a whole a bit more often while Rivers starts to settle in and develop chemistry. That said, Taylor will need to do the same to some degree.

I fully expect Mack to garner at least 60% of the touches through the first half of the year. Mack will certainly concede the passing down work to Taylor or Nyheim Hines. However, Mack is going about 70 picks after Taylor. With Mack having the early work (and likely being the starter for a large portion of the season), he could easily surpass RB42 value. In 26 games over the last two seasons, Mack has put up more than 1,900 yards rushing.

This isn’t a Frank Gore/Devin Singletary scenario. Plus in the last two seasons he’shad eight and nine touchdowns, respectively. I think Mack is still the go-to back at the goal line. He can be seen as a RB2 in the early portion of the season and also sustain weekly flex appeal throughout.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew II

I mustache you...do you like rushing quarterbacks? I know I do. Gardner Minshew had 281 yards rushing in 12 games last season - that’s about 21 yards a game. To some it might not sound like a ton, but in four point passing touchdown leagues, that comes out to an extra eight touchdowns over the course of a season...or it erases his fumbles from last season...however you’d like to look at it.

Minshew took over for Nick Foles last season, who went down pretty much out of the gate. It was a little back and forth with Foles and Minshew once Foles was back, but the Jags liked what they saw in Gardner (he’s also getting paid considerably less) and sent Foles to Chicago to compete with Mitch Trubisky. It was anticipated that the Jags would sign a higher profile backup or perhaps someone to compete with Minshew, but they really haven’t done that. Minshew goes into the season as the starter with no competition for his spot, a hopefully motivated Leonard Fournette, and a pretty good surrounding cast.

In fantasy drafts, he’s almost undrafted. He’s currently slotted in as QB 23, pick 223 overall - basically undrafted unless you have very deep rosters. If things don’t work out for Minshew, you really haven’t lost much in redraft leagues. Obviously in dynasty, you’d likely have an option ahead of Minshew or as your QB2 in SuperFlex leagues. The first two games for the Jags are tougher with the Colts and then on the road in Tennessee. After that though, the Jags get the Bengals, Texans, and Lions - all beatable defenses. If Minshew can limit his fumbles and get into the endzone on the ground a couple of times, he could be a great play in plus matchups and easily come in ahead of QB23.

 

Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith

I’ve already planted my flag and told you why you should draft Ryan Tannehill (you can find that from my earlier article on why he’s the real deal), so now I’ll let you know one of biggest reasons why he’ll be successful: his TE, Jonnu Smith. Smith is currently being drafted as TE 16, pick 154, the back of round 12. Now, if you’re drafting with me, Jonnu isn’t making it to the back half of round 12. Smith is option number two in the passing game behind A.J. Brown in this offense. The Titans obviously had a tale of two seasons last year. One with Marcus Mariota, and the other with the aforementioned Tannehill. From week eight forward, Smith saw at least four targets in six games. Not a ton of volume I’ll give you, but the Titans leaned on the monster that was Derrick Henry down the stretch...and who can blame them?

While the Titans are likely to run Henry for everything he has left in him this year, Tannehill proved to be efficient in this system, and both he and Smith will have a full off-season knowing they’re locked into starting roles. I’m not telling you that Smith is the next Mark Andrews or George Kittle, but I am saying he’s in an offense that is efficient (as he was at 12.5 yards a grab last season), and will have plenty of scoring opportunities. I think Smith could provide weekly upside to finish within the top six at his position and within the top 10 TE’s for the season.

You can follow me @ThatMattKelley

Why Leonard Fournette can win you a Dynasty title: 

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Why Leonard Fournette can win you a dynasty title

by Matt Kelley

When you’re on the clock in a dynasty start-up or redraft and you’re staring down at a Jaguar, it’s usually not a great feeling. The Jags have been tricky to peg for a consistent fantasy producer. There was the Blake Bortles period. The Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns year. T.J. Yeldon had his moments, but he was never really ‘the guy’. All of that brings us to Leonard Fournette who has been, without question, the most desired player on the Jags when it comes to fantasy in recent memory (perhaps Chark makes us rethink that this year). 

Leonard Fournette burst onto the NFL scene his rookie season in 2017 with 10 total touchdowns, over 1000 yards rushing and added another 300 yards through the air. He was a frustrating player in 2018 as he battled multiple lower body injuries and  missed one game in week 13 due to suspension. In 2019 he went over 1100 yards on the ground, got 100 targets (wait, really?, yes), which tallied 76 catches for 522 yards in 15 games. Fournette was 8th in rush attempts, on pace for roughly that in 2018 and 7th in rush attempts his rookie season. Fournette has played 75% of his available NFL games to date .

Of RB1’s last season, all but 1 (Austin Ekeler) had over 200 carries. Nine of them had 230+ carries , and Saquon Barkley racked up 217 carries in just 13 games. Only 20 RB’s in the league had 200+ carries.  Opportunity is key. 

What’s the pause for fantasy managers in wanting to roster Fournette for dynasty? Let’s take a look. 

The obvious reason is that we have no clue what team Fournette will be on after 2019 as the Jags have declined his 5th year option, so it’s reasonable to assume he won’t be back. That said, the Jags have zero reason to hold back on Fournette’s volume (not that they were anyway). ‘But now, Chris Thompson is taking all the passing down work’.  Thompson will likely vulture a good portion of those targets Fournette received last year, but Thompson has also missed at least 5 games in each of the last 3 seasons. If Thompson were to miss time, it’s likely the scenario reverts back to last season and Fournette starts seeing additional targets. 

‘Fournette doesn’t get into the end zone’. 

Well, I can’t fight you on that in regards to last season. Fournette had 23 carries inside the 10 zone last season and the fewest touchdowns (3) of anyone with at least 20 carries in that part of the field. While touchdown’s are one of  the most difficult stats to predict and shouldn’t be considered a sticky stat from year to year, it’s hard to imagine that number not going up for Fournette. There’s really no one to challenge him for work in the 10 zone and the Jags should see an uptick on offense with Gardner Minshew under center all year. 

If you’re in a team that’s in contention for a fantasy championship this year, look to the team with Fournette in your league and see what kind of deal you can strike. If the past has taught us anything, it’s that Fournette is going to get opportunity, and in fantasy, opportunity is hard to come by at the running back spot. 

@ThatMattKelley