Lamar Jackson

Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

by Tim Lazenby

 

The National Football League is one filled with a rich history.  When a feat is accomplished it is unlikely that it hasn’t been done already.  The NFL is actually over 100 years old and the merger that caused the league as we know it today was over half a century ago.  Needless to say, and understating the obvious, records aren’t easily broken and true history isn’t likely to be carved anymore.  But, it does happen.  One of these trailblazers still here is none other than Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

 

The Reason to Sell

Before last season, I don’t think there was any reason to have such a debate.  Lamar Jackson showed nothing but improvement and prowess; exactly the type of player you want leading your dynasty to the ultimate fantasy prize.  Questions of looming health and long term value have begun creeping in and it’s time to address the question of Lamar Jackson’s value.  Just what do we do with the quarterback from Louisville?

 

Poor Protection

Despite having many talents, we all know the greatest strength to Lamar Jackson’s game is his ability to run the ball.  The opposing team needs to change it’s whole defensive scheme to account for that one unicorn in Baltimore.  The sad truth is that a runner can only be as effective as his protection.  Defenses have not only brought more pressure each and every year Lamar has played, he’s payed the price in a higher sack rate as well.  Last season he was sacked an extra 40% more than he was in his MVP season.  His ineffective offensive line also forces his hand more.  Decisions to throw or not turn into a hurried run play due to lack of time and blocking.  How much longer can Lamar Jackson take the pressure until it plummets his fantasy football value? 

 

Lack of Receivers

Not every team in the NFL has the same talents and depth at positions as others.  Each and every team, no matter how strong, has weaknesses and one of the glaring ones in Baltimore is its lack of receiving depth.  Without a plethora of hands to throw to, Lamar is forced to funnel too many targets at Andrews and rush the ball more than he should.  Even back to college, he was a monster running the ball, but he was a very underrated passer.  The depth at Louisville didn’t consist of one target hog, making Lamar much more of a swiss army knife, rather than a running back playing quarterback; as he’s been called.  Until the Ravens bring in more talent to catch, Lamar will be penned in.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Name another quarterback like Lamar Jackson.  I’d be reluctant to name one; that’s for sure.  Although there are others who share elements of his game, Lamar Jackson is truly one of a kind.  Players like Kyler Murray have had flashes, but not like Lamar Jackson.  And rushing aside, his arm, vision and leadership are greatly underestimated.  Freshly turned 25, the sky is truly the limit.  We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what he can really do.  And with so many elite options at the position being a limited number, shouldn’t we pounce while we can?  Many would say absolutely.

 

Dual Threat

I’ve alluded to it many times, but if you didn’t know or have never seen him play, Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest running quarterback of all time.  Michael Vick really broke the mold first in this style, and Cam Newton continued the legacy, but Lamar has virtually perfected it.  Lamar is one of two quarterbacks to run 1000 yards in a single season, and Lamar has done it twice.  In fact, had he played a full season, he averaged to do it for a third time in a row.  In fantasy, points are hard to come by as a quarterback, so if you add rushing, they pile up that much faster.  Throughout his career, he’s never averaged less than double digits per game in rush attempts.  And last season, with less games played, he broke more tackles and had a better yards after contact ratio.

 

Proven Winner

Lamar Jackson has a history of reigning.  Although he’s yet to claim the Superbowl, in fantasy, we only care about the regular season.  In college, he won the Heisman Trophy, for MVP at that level, in only his sophomore season.  And fantasy managers were rewarded in his first full season in the NFL.  Lamar was so insanely good that he won the NFL MVP at only 22.  In fact, he was only the second player in league history to win the award unanimously.  There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson is the type of player who is not content unless he’s getting better every year.  When you think about making a move for a cornerstone dynasty player, what more can you ask for?

 

Verdict

I’ll admit it, despite all his success in college, I agreed with the Ravens waiting so long to draft him. Due to his play style, there are more risks involved; not just with injury, but learning how to let the plays evolve and making the smarter decision for the long term.  Looking back now, it’s insane that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen went significantly higher.  Baltimore even took tight end Hayden Hurst before drafting Lamar.  It just goes to show that evaluating talent at the NFL level is not an exact science.

 

Lamar Jackson is one of the best players, not only at his position, but in the entirety of the National Football League.  A truly unique specimen, Jackson is one to be sought after and envied by anyone who doesn’t have him.  I face this dilemma though.  If it were redraft, there aren’t too many quarterbacks I’d like more, but in dynasty, long term value is a considerable factor.  Rush first quarterbacks simply do not last as long as ones that are not.  I would rather have a dual threat quarterback, but at an equivalent price, I lean toward one that will last.  At his current price point in dynasty, it gives me no option than to consider selling, but the deal has to be right.  There has to be an elite quarterback gained in return, however I’m sure I can get one back with draft capital too.

 

.. as long as the price is right.

5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

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5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

by Bob Miller

 

It’s officially the Fantasy Football offseason, but for those of us that play in Dynasty leagues, now is the time to start making deals to upgrade our teams. Today I’m going to give you five players I’m actively looking to acquire this offseason. 

 

 

JK Dobbins

When I think of JK Dobbins’ potential, I get excited. Dobbins showed everyone in 2020 that he was arguably the best RB in that draft. Obviously Jonathan Taylor would beg to differ. Anyhow, Dobbins was poised to take a big step forward last season, but he unfortunately tore his ACL in a preseason game. No worries, Dobbins is right on track to return to training camp. I expect big things from him and this Ravens rushing attack, but some fantasy owners are still worried about 3 things: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and the below average offensive line. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens are focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason, and they run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. Don’t forget, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry in 2020, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens were throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increased his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. Grab him now at an RB2 price, because he will be an RB1 for the next few years.

 

Cam Akers

This one is a little tricky. I don't believe you can get Akers at a big discount, but I believe you can get him now quite a bit cheaper than a year from now. Trading for Akers is going to take some skill, because those owners who have held onto him are now looking forward to using him this coming season. Don't let that discourage you from trying. When I picture Cam Akers potential all I see is Todd Gurley. Gurley was a touchdown machine and an absolute fantasy stud in Sean McVay’s offense. I see that same potential for Cam Akers over the next few seasons to come. Trade for him now if you still can.

 

Lamar Jackson

 Lamar Jackson is the perfect example, and I mean perfect example of a buy low candidate. Jackson was a mid QB1 at best last season. He also missed the last 4 games of the season. Keep in mind that Baltimore was missing their starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley, running backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and Nick Boyle, the best blocking TE in the league. Like I said previously, Baltimore is extremely focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason. Combine that with those players returning from injury, Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Rashad Bateman, and we may have another MVP performance from Lamar in 2022. Go get him.

 

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb finished as WR15 in PPR leagues last season. For a top 5 ranked WR in dynasty, that was quite a disappointment to say the least. He really faded down the stretch as well. That didn’t help either, but I have good news. Michael Gallup is expected to leave via free agency and Amari Cooper is rumored to be a cap casualty this offseason. That’s a lot of targets potentially leaving. If those things happen then Dallas has no choice but to throw it Lamb’s way often. Aside from injury, I see no way that CeeDee Lamb doesn’t finish as a top 10 WR this upcoming season. If you can get him at a discount, I say go for it.

 

Saquon Barkley

Someone in your dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Saquon Barkley. That’s what I like to see. I have been trading for Barkley at a discount wherever I can. We all know what he is capable of, and that Giants offense should be quite different with Brian Daboll coaching. I know Barkley has had some injuries, but personally I do not see Saquon as an injury prone player, just someone with a little bit of bad luck lately. I don’t have to sell you on Barkley, we all know what he’s capable of. I’m just here to tell you that I have no problem trading for him. Better days are ahead of Saquon. If you can get him at a discount, make it happen.

 

AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our next stop is a division is full of intrigue in both real life as well as for fantasy purposes; The AFC North! Before we get into the team breakdowns, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is back! The Steelers are an absolute BUY, targeting these players and reaching to get a piece or two of this group. Last year was a lost season but upside remains as they look to return to being a fantasy friendly offense.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: “Ladder Pick”, low QB1, 1-2% auction, round 13, Big Ben returns from injury with an outstanding offensive core surrounding him. If he is able to stay healthy (like Cam Newton in NE) he could have the largest ROI in fantasy football.

RB James Conner: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 3, I believe the Steelers will return to be an elite offense if Big Ben can stay healthy. Conner can be a major beneficiary with top 10 RB upside! A big riser for me this summer!

RBs Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, and Jaylen Samuels: As of now I’m not drafting these guys unless it is a deep league. All priority FAs!

Snell seems to be the favorite for backup duties, McFarland is the rookie PPR target, and versatile Samuels has pass catching upside as well. Waiting to see how it plays out. Again we want players in offenses with upside.

WR Juju Smith-Schuster: WR1, 12-13% auction, round 3, I believe Juju is a major bounce back candidate and as a versatile WR in an elite offense, he is a player worth reaching for!

WR Diontae Johnson: Low-WR3, ideal WR4, 4% auction, late round 7/ideal round 8, Johnson showed flashes of greatness as rookie with poor QB play, he might be the best value of the skill position players on this team!

WR James Washington and Chase Claypool: Priority FAs, deep league end of bench stashes. These two 2nd round picks have immense upside in this offense, especially if Juju or Diontae were to miss time!

TE Eric Ebron: TE2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, he is one of the many good TE options late in drafts. Maybe the deepest the position has felt in years, I wouldn’t be disappointed if he ended up on a deep league roster. This athletic TD machine could be a wonderful late Best Ball pick

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson! Wow! An incredible and wildly satisfying fantasy performance! He does it all and executed the offense to absolute perfection! He alone makes the Ravens a Big Buy! I’m aggressively targeting players in this elite offense!

QB Lamar Jackson: QB1, 10% auction, round 4, I typically wait on QB but Jackson (as well as Mahomes) is extremely tempting to get early. He’s the GameShark because has the cheat code! (Remember GameShark?! How cool were those?!). Immense rushing and passing upside!

RB Mark Ingram: RB2, 8-9% auction, round 5, Ingram value has plummeted with the addition of JK Dobbins. I say “Good! More for me, please!” This is exciting because there is still plenty of opportunity for both of them to have fantasy success and Ingram is all the cheaper in drafts.

RB JK Dobbins: “Ladder Pick”, RB4 with RB2 upside, 6-7% auction, round 5-6, he was part of an epic RB class, It will be fascinating to see how their careers play out. He shares the backfield with Ingram for now. I’m targeting both in drafts, an easier feat to accomplish in auction

Dobbins like Jonathon Taylor have paths that are eerily similar to that of Ezekiel Elliott. Even with a crowded backfield, the Ravens selected Dobbins in the 2nd round! He checks all the boxes and lands in an elite offense! I am going to be aggressively targeting him in all formats!

WR Marquise Brown: WR3, 6% auction, round 6-7, this Best Ball target flashed as a rookie even while dealing with injuries. He is healthy, has added muscle to his undersized frame. He is a unique talent and a perfect weapon for the modern day NFL.

WRs Boykin and Devin Duvernay are both priority FAs. I would keep a close eye on any of the depth WRs in Baltimore. We want players in elite offenses!

TE Mark Andrews: TE1, 8-9% auction, round 5, nick-named MANDREW, which is awesome, he broke out along with Jackson last year, in glorious fashion. It is easy to forget how much he struggled with injuries last year, as he was essentially “questionable” to play for the majority of the contests last season.

However, he is a clear focal point of the passing game, and now has more target share potential with Hayden Hurst in Atlanta.

Cleveland Browns

A new HC is in town which will hopefully lead to some stability in the organization. It’s been a rocky road to say the least. For fantasy purposes, having big upside at every offense core position The Browns are a BUY!

QB Baker Mayfield: QB2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, this post-hype sleeper is surrounded by great pass-catchers and still has rushing upside. Since QB is so deep, I typically look elsewhere even when waiting on QB, but if he can limit turnovers he could be a real steal.

RB Nick Chubb: RB1, 17-18% auction, late round 1, early round 2, extremely talented in an offense that has scoring upside. Hunt can take away a little bit of his ceiling which is why I prefer Chubb in the 2nd round, but he is too good to pass up when he is available on the board.

RB Kareem Hunt: RB3, 5-6% auction, round 6, pass catching upside makes him an interesting FLEX, I typically like to grab WRs where Hunt’s ADP is but if I start robust WR with elite TE, he can be utilized as a RB2. He becomes an instant RB1 if Chubb were to miss time!

WR Odell Beckham Jr: WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4-5, the dynamic play maker looks to build off of a mostly down first year in Cleveland. He could be a major steal as WR2 on your roster. Beckham’s success does rely a bit of Baker. I hope he can return to his old form!

WR Jarvis Landry: WR3, 7-8% auction, round 6, PPR stud, one of my favorite players creates an excellent duo with his college teammate OBJ, it is a scary combination and should be fruitful if Baker’s play can be elevated from last year. He is one of the safest floor plays in the league! One of my first players I add to my queue!

TE Austin Hooper: TE2, with sneaky TE1 upside, it was a curious signing with Cleveland already having Njoku on their roster but more HC Kevin Stefanski loves to incorporate TEs into the offense.

Not the most “exciting” pick but should have a nice floor with room to grow! Keep an eye on David Njoku as well, Uber-athletic, priority FA, especially if Hooper were to miss time!

Cincinnati Bengals

Young HC Zac Taylor’s rough first year led the Bengals to a new franchise QB! The Bengals have nowhere to go but up as their offensive core falls into the NEUTRAL category. The QB play will determine how much juice is squeezed from the lemon. Hopefully Joe Burrow can make some tasty lemonade.

QB Joe Burrow: QB2, priority FA, Burrow broke college football last year with dominate play week in and week out, while seemingly played better as the competition grew. The Bengals get their new face of the organization. Very good weapons surround him, so I would not hesitate to add him if your starter misses time!

RB Joe Mixon: RB1, 22-23% auction, late round 1, Mixon is a really good player even with mediocre QB play. Burrow is an upgrade and provides new found upside to offensive core, most of which to Mixon. Should potentially see easier looks since defenses will have to respect the QB play even more.

RB Gio Bernard: RB5, 1-2% auction, round 13, Gio is old reliable, he can do it all, but he is behind Mixon, if Mixon were to miss time, Gio becomes FLEX option! One of best late round stashes (and moustaches) for your team!

WR Tyler Boyd: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), ideal WR3, 10% auction, round 6, PPR target, he will be a bit of a safety net for the young QB, I think his value is the least affected of the all the pass catchers! Very safe pick, nice weekly floor!

WR AJ Green: WR3, 8-9% auction, round 7, of AJ Green can do AJ Green things he will be the biggest steal of drafts. When he is healthy all he does is put up top 10 WR seasons! High risk high reward!

WR John Ross and Tee Higgins: Priority FAs, both should be rostered in all leagues if healthy when and if AJ Green were to miss time! Higgins is more of a dynasty buy compared to redraft! John Ross is best utilized as a Best Ball target!