Kyle Pitts

ADP INs and Outs- Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

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As we get closer to your redraft leagues starting I want to continue to give you players that I am In and Out on based on their current ADP. (Average Draft Price). This is not to say that these players shouldn’t be taken or are not good. It’s nearly saying that at the cost of acquiring them, I either would go for it or avoid it. Here are the two quarterbacks and three tight ends I’m IN and OUT on for the 2023 NFL season

 

In 

Jared Goff- Detroit Lions

 

Last season Jared Goff led the Lions to a 9-8 record and just missed out on the Lions’ first playoff appearance since 2016. All on the way to a QB10 finish for fantasy. Goff is now being drafted as the QB17. He is an instant IN for me. He did well last season and adds in Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam Laporta as well as another year of development for Amon-Ra St.Brown and Jameson Williams. He should easily outproduce his draft price. He could end up winning fantasy manager’s leagues as they wait on a quarterback and stock up on high draft picks at running back and wide receiver. 

 

Out

Justin Fields- Chicago Bears

 

Don’t hear what I’m not saying. Justin Fields is a good quarterback but this is about draft cost and if they will match or exceed that. I don’t see it for Justin Fields. He finished as the QB7 last season and is now being drafted as the QB6. Yes, they added DJ Moore to the mix and Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet should be healthy all year. These are exactly why I think Fields is being drafted too high. Over half of his fantasy points, last season came from his rushing numbers. If the passing game is better he should have to run less. He will progress now in his third season and they added weapons to help him. The Bears also added two solid rushers to their team in D’Onte Foreman and Roschon Johnson to go along with Khalil Herbert. All to help take the rushing load off of Fields. I think QB6 might be his ceiling. 

 

In

C.J. Stroud- Houston Texans

 

I’ve said all along that C.J. Stroud is the best quarterback in this year’s NFL draft and I still believe that. The question and concern for fantasy managers is what kind of upside does he posses. This is reflected in his draft cost as he is coming off the board as QB25. I believe that Stroud is the next interaction of the mold that Kirk Cousins has set. Cousins has never finished lower than the QB20 in a season where he was the starter. Stroud may not have the high rushing upside of Anthony Richardson but he is a very skilled quarterback on a team with young talented pass catchers. He should do well this season and be a stud for years to come

 

Out

Anthony Richardson- Indianapolis Colts

 

I love the buzz around Anthony Richardson. He is big. He is athletic. He is a sight to be seen. Unfortunately, we haven’t SEEN him as a starting quarterback in the NFL yet he is being drafted as the QB16 ahead of proven producers. We also only saw him play limited time in college. It’s a high price to pay for an unproven at any level passer. He would have to have a very high rushing floor and not turn the ball over to produce at or above his current draft cost. 

 

In 

Michael Mayer- Las Vegas Raiders

 

Michael Mayer was arguably one of the best tight-end talents in the draft. He was poised to be a fantasy impact player wherever he landed. He then landed in a great situation. He was drafted by the Raiders who brought in Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders’ offensive system last season threw 91 targets to the starting combination of Darrin Waller and Foster Moreau. Jimmy Garoppolo fed George Kittle enough to make him a top 5 TE in the three years he got the majority of the starting time. Mayer is being drafted as the TE18. He is basically free in non-tight-end premium leagues. He will quickly make owners regret not taking him and be a high waiver pickup early in the season.

Out

Kyle Pitts- Atlanta Falcons

 

I’ve been off Kyle Pitts for a while. Yes, he is extremely athletic but I’m not sure if that always translates to being a good NFL player. My issue is he is being drafted as a great NFL player and we just haven’t seen it. Currently the TE5 off the board. If everyone believes that Drake London is a superstar and that running back Bijan Robinson should be the focal point of the offense and can get a ton of targets out of the backfield then what does that leave for Kyle Pitts? I’m a believer in the talent of Desmond Ridder under center but I don’t believe that one of the worst offenses last season turned into the high-octane scoring offense that we all want pieces of. Pitts should be good but I doubt his ability to get to his draft price

 

In

Tyler Higbee- Los Angeles Rams

 

Do you know what we want from our tight ends? At least 80 targets. A number that Tyler Higbee has seen three of the past four years. The Rams’ offense was not great last year due to injuries to quarterback Matthew Stafford and wideout Cooper Kupp. This year they both should be healthy and be poised to make one more Super Bowl run. Higbee is a crucial part of the offensive scheme. He is being drafted as the TE16. He was TE6 last season. If the offense can be better Higbee should be better. Even if his total targets come down his scoring opportunities should go up.

 

Out

Darren Waller- New York Giants

 

I don’t love drafting players who are older and have two seasons in a row of missing time with injury. I especially don’t like drafting them as the TE6. Yes,  Darren Waller is on a new team but I think that might actually hurt him. Tight ends last year for the Giants only saw a combined 73 targets. That’s just shy of the 80 target number I like to see for my tight ends and Waller isn’t going to get all of them. With Isaiah Hodgins having a full offseason, Wan’dale Robinson being healthy and Saquon Barkley back in the fold I’m not buying Waller as the TE6 this year. Too much risk for me

In

Mike Gesicki- New England Patriots

If you watched Mike Gesicki play at all from 2019 to 2021 then you know that he is a great pass-catching tight end. In those years he always had over 80 targets and never finished outside of TE12. In 2022 with new Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, Gesicki wasn’t used the same way and finished as TE23 with only 52 targets. Now Gesicki signs with the New England Patriots and should see his targets and overall finish go back to what we have come to expect. He is being drafted as the TE23. So worst case you are drafting him at his finish last year. It’s a massive IN for me.

Out

Dalton Kincaid- Buffalo Bills

 

I’ve written a whole piece on Dalton Kincaid which you can find here. The basics of my thoughts are that rookie tight ends don’t develop and produce as fast as other positions. Being drafted as the highest rookie tightened at TE12 you are almost expecting close to historic numbers from him. Yes, he is on the Bills who have a high-powered offense but they don’t historically use the tight end or the slot position well so I don’t see a ton of opportunities for Kincaid this season.

Dynasty Dilemma: Kyle Pitts

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Dynasty Dilemma: Kyle Pitts

By Doug Harrelson

 

The highly anticipated second season of Kyle Pitts has left many fantasy players in disbelief at the lack of production this far into the season. With only one touchdown to his name this season, we have all been sorely disappointed. The phrase “positive touchdown regression” was thrown around in any and every conversation involving the freakishly talented tight end from the University of Florida. Dynasty managers have no idea what to do with this start to the season. Should we be trying to buy low or is this the time to get out now before it is too late? Time to tackle this Dynasty Dilemma.

 

Coming out of Florida, draft scouts simply referred to Kyle Pitts as a unicorn. Comparisons of the great Calvin Johnson were made. The unique combination of size and athleticism creates mismatches everywhere on the field. What makes this even better is getting at a position like tight end where the best ones are so much better than the tier below them. Anyone rostering Kelce or Mark Andrews right now can tell you what it is like to have legitimate 40 point upside from a position where your opponent is just crossing their fingers that whatever mediocre tight end they are starting this week happens to catch one in the endzone to get to 10 points. 

This start is not ideal but there are a couple of factors we can consider that could cause a better 2023 campaign for Kyle Pitts. The first being the quarterback situation is likely to change in the following season. Either Ridder will be the guy or they will draft someone. Mariota has been serviceable and overperformed expectations for some at this point but the offense is still 30th in the league in pass yards. With a better signal caller one could expect the Falcons to pass more in future seasons then they currently do as well as more efficiently. 

 

Normally draft capital is a big predictor of fantasy success, this does not necessarily hold true for the tight end position. Let’s look at the last tight ends selected in the first round before Kyle Pitts. We have Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, Hayden Hurst, David Njoku, Evan Engram, O.J. Howard, Eric Ebron, Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, and Brandon Pettigrew. Sure there are some reasonable starters in there but none of these guys were ever at a Kelce or Andrews level of dominance for any extended time. 

Another big factor is the fact that Drake London is not going anywhere and will demand his share of targets. Drake London has immediately become the alpha in this offense that will even get back Calvin Ridley next season. Kyle Pitts can only manage 5 targets a game while just competing with Drake London mostly for targets. The Falcons should be one of the teams targeting more pass catchers this offense whether through the draft of free agency so more competition is likely coming and perhaps with a rookie QB or a 2nd year Desmond Ridder under center. Right now you can still get a reasonable return for Kyle Pitts from a rebuilding team but if you wait he will become harder to get a good return for if this continues. 

 

The discount has likely not gone down enough for you to be able to buy from someone that likely spent a decent pick or had to trade a lot to get Pitts but I am not selling Pitts at a discount. This is a textbook hold situation for me. It wouldn’t hurt to send some offers on some rebuilding teams to see what it would take to acquire him but I would not be interested in buying at the cost of multiple 1sts or value equivalent. It is highly disappointing if you are a contender that has Kyle Pitts right now but you are likely just gonna have to ride through it.

 

Dynasty League’s Closing Windows

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Dynasty League's Closing Windows

By Joel Wirth

Dynasty players are all about the long view, but player values are fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a divisive back-end WR2 (although, I seem to recall someone extolling his virtues a while back on this very site https://dynastyprosfootball.com/objects-in-the-rear-view-mirroramon-ra-st-brown/), now he’s trading for no less than a 2023 1st plus a productive player. Paying market rate for a player today can be a clear win next week if that player’s value takes off in-between. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few players who you may want to look into trading for now before their value goes up and their trade window closes.

The Youngsters

Treylon Burks/Chris Olave

Dynasty veterans know the rule of thumb with rookie receivers is let them struggle early, then trade for them right before they learn the speed of the game, get in sync with their QB, and they start producing fantasy points. Garrett Wilson has shown us that sometimes happens sooner than we expect, even if they’re not Ja’Marr Chase-level talents. Burks and Olave could be the next two in line for feature roles. Tennessee looks like a flat out bad team and Derrick Henry looking like he’s running through molasses should lead to more passing volume and more garbage time than we’re used to with this team. Olave’s advanced metrics show a star in the making. Jameis Winston’s hideous early season inefficiency is the only thing holding him back right now. Neither of these two are exactly cheap, they still have most of their rookie draft shine, but like Wilson, they’re one elite game away from being highly coveted assets.

CeeDee Lamb/Kyle Pitts

Going into the season, Lamb and Pitts were two of the most valuable dynasty properties you could have; young, supremely talented, in great situations, and in Pitts’ case, playing an exceptionally scarce position. Real or perceived, their early season struggles have made them available for costs that would have been unthinkable on Labor Day. In one of my leagues, Pitts was traded for Darren Waller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. That offer would have been laughed at and insta-rejected not that long ago. At this point, it really can’t hurt to ask and see if they’re available at all. These two are Burks & Olave on steroids. One good game and they go back to being nigh-untouchable.

Travis Etienne

During best ball draft season, Etienne was the RB hotness. Two weeks into the season, James Robinson is unexpectedly back and Etienne is being benched in fantasy. That sound you hear is BUY LOW sirens going off. Much like Cam Akers, Robinson coming back from an Achilles injury so soon is a great story, but he’s been very inefficient, averaging less than 4 YPC. His value is being entirely propped up by touchdowns and Etienne’s high profile sure-touchdown drop on 4th down in the opener. Once those normalize, Etienne will go back to being the RB to own in Jacksonville, which will be a good thing, because…

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is like Old Faithful right now. You can feel the rumbling under your feet, you know the explosion is coming, you just don’t know when. Once the geyser blows, TLaw will jump up to and potentially surpass Joe Burrow status in superflex. He’s still the elite, generational prospect we saw in college and expected on Draft Day ‘21. Urban Meyer wrecked his rookie season, but even through that haze you can still see the Andrew Luck upside. If there are still doubters, relieve them of their burden.

Elijah Moore

Yes, Garrett Wilson is this week’s WR hotness, but don’t forget about Moore. He’s no less talented because he has another talented teammate in the WR room. Zach Wilson is due back imminently and we know he has more time together with Moore than Wilson. Plus, if (Zach) Wilson can live up to his draft pedigree, there will be plenty of room at the table in this offense for both to eat.

The Seasoned Vets

De’Andre Hopkins

This is simple math. After Week 3, he’ll be half way through his suspension and his managers will take an “I’ve held this long, why should I sell now” attitude, and deservedly so. If the DHop manager in your league is off to a slow start, now is the perfect time to go after him.

Travis Kelce

A 5/50/0 line in a prime time game is as bad as Kelce’s ever going to look, and for a Tight End, it’s still really not bad at all. You probably have until exactly 1:00 PM EDT Sunday to get him at the most modest of discounts. Be sure to mention how positively elderly Kelce is looking in your proposal.

Chris Godwin

The hamstring injury is legitimately the best thing that could have happened to him, forcing the Bucs to give his reconstructed knee additional time to heal. Like DHop, if his manager is off to a slow start and you can afford the downtime, see what it would take to get Godwin onto your roster.

D.J. Moore

He’s the same guy he’s always been. Carolina’s offense has unsurprisingly struggled coming together early, despite the expectations of default QB improvement. If Moore is the victim of over-inflated pre-season expectations, get him now before the Panthers pull it together.

Diontae Johnson

Speaking of guys who are what they’ve always been… You’ll likely have to wait until next week to make this deal go down since he played Thursday, but he has double digit targets in every game so far. The Steelers now have a “mini-bye” to self-scout and figure out how to start scoring touchdowns. Coming back against the Jets won’t hurt that effort, but it may tank your chances of trading for Diontae at value once he goes off.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

We end with a low cost/no cost long term stash. The window isn’t closing on this one so much as slowly shimmying down the sill. DPJ’s deep threat talents are a terrible match for Jacoby Brissett’s game-manager arm. Once Deshaun Watson’s suspension is over, look for him to get DPJ involved in the offense in ways he currently cannot be.