Josh Jacobs

Dynasty Weather Report: Kenyan Drake and the Raiders Backfield

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Dynasty Weather Report: Kenyan Drake and the Raiders Backfield

By Darren Smith

 

Welcome to the Dynasty Weather Report - a segment that provides you with reactions to breaking news and how players are affected in terms of Dynasty. Each player will be compared to a type of weather based on how they are affected by the news. For example, if a player has positive implications, they will be compared to sunny weather.

 

Today’s Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of Kenyan Drake being CUT.

News broke today that Kenyan Drake is expected to be cut from the Raiders. The 28 year old running back spent the 2021 season in Las Vegas backing up Josh Jacobs commanding some of the 3rd down and goal line work. Drake flashed at times and excelled in the passing game in the beginning of last season, but started to fall off in the second half and then fell victim to season ending injury. It seems like Josh McDaniels has seen enough, and the Raiders are ready to move on. What does this mean in terms of Dynasty?

 

Sunny Weather and Clear Skies

Josh Jacobs

The sun shines brightly for Josh Jacobs, who now has full reign of the backfield and could easily be an every down back. Jacobs' Dynasty value has been falling over the past few months with the news that Vegas would not be picking up his 5th year option. Jacobs could be elsewhere next season however he has every opportunity to boost his stock with a monster 2022 season. Without Drake, Jacobs should be more involved in the pass game, and also get some more work at the goal line. He’s a buy for contending teams at a cheap cost.

 

Thunder and Lighting

Zamir White

Lightning strikes fast and powerful, just like how Zamir White has an opportunity to have an immediate strong impact in the Raiders backfield. White was drafted 122nd overall in the 4th round out of Georgia. He impressed at the Combine with 4.40 speed and has a physical presence on the field, and the Raiders are excited to see what he can do as he scored the opening drive touchdown in the Preseason game against Miami. Expect White to fill in the “Kenyan Drake” role eventually - it’s Jacobs backfield now, but White could bring the thunder down the stretch of this season and is worth the stash in Dynasty Leagues.

 

Clouds and Heavy Rain

Kenyan Drake

Kenyan Drake feels the rain falling down today as he heard he was likely getting cut and even tweeted a goodbye to #RaiderNation. Drake could potentially get signed to a team sometime this season, but don’t expect the veteran to have much fantasy implications going forward. Kenyan will be added for depth and for a locker room presence and may see a few touches here and there, but will ultimately be a roster clogger. He can be dropped in all formats.

How do you feel about today’s Dynasty Weather Report? Let me know how you think the Raiders backfield is going to turn out this season by following @FFBirdGang and commenting on the linked tweet.

Dynasty Dilemma: Josh Jacobs 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Josh Jacobs 

by Tim Lazenby

 

In 2019, the then Oakland Raiders used their first round pick to select running back Josh Jacobs, out of Alabama.  When it comes to elite talent at the position in college, there aren’t too many programs better.  After pumping out names like Mark Ingram and King Derrick Henry, many had hoped Jacobs would follow their success.

 

The Reason to Sell

People seem torn on Josh Jacobs value.  In one sense, he’s been a pretty consistent running back.  In another, he’s yet to show that next level that fantasy owners are looking for.  The advanced metrics don’t show him to be a beast.  So are we getting someone we can trust on our squad or just a middling player at the coveted position?

 

Lack of Explosion

One could argue that Josh Jacobs is always one you can count on for something, but lacks the power or agility to blow up a game.  He never seems to be one to strap the team on his back and overpower the opposition.  At the position, consistency is nice, but we need someone who can be a true game changer.  In PPR settings, Jacobs only had two weeks in the top 10 at his position and he averaged out at the 18th best back in a weekly points finish metric.  These numbers aren’t eye popping to be certain.

 

Crowded Backfield

A total of six backs rushed for the Las Vegas Raiders last season.  Josh’s opportunities were stolen by highly paid, Kenyan Drake, and even the lowly fill in Peyton Barber at times.  Although Barber isn’t much of a threat next season, Drake carries a cap hit of over 8 million dollars next season, and most of it is guaranteed.  He’s certain to vulture a number of touches, including pass catches, where PPR gold is cherished.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

We have to understand the true value that Josh Jacobs brings to a team.  Not just in the points he will accrue, but in the job security, which is hard to come by as a running back.  There aren’t many cases of a first round running back not being featured.  Players like Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny are exceptions, but even they showed value long after dynasty owners had written them off.  Long term value is the name of the game.

 

Continued Improvement

Although this statement sounds like a straight up lie, hear me out.  I can’t argue with the fact that his rushing numbers have gone down each year in the NFL.  What I can say is that his targets have gone up substantially each season, from 27 to 45 to 64 last season.  Also noteworthy is that his touchdown efficiency has also improved yearly.

 

Strong Finish

It may be surprising to know that in a twelve team league, Josh Jacobs finished as an RB1 last year.  Even more shocking is how successful he was despite such a slow start.  Through week 11, he only averaged 9.8 rushes per game, but from week 12 on through the playoffs, the numbers went up to 17.6.  In the playoffs, it was even higher; at a whopping 19.5 per game.  Past week 11, he also averaged over 4.5 targets a game.  

 

Verdict

Josh Jacobs get a lot of hate.  He’s rarely seen as an RB1, let alone a top end RB2.  He’s also seen as a committee back, but is that really true?  Barber only had one game as starter and one sharing, never to go above 6 rushes otherwise.  And Drake only had one game over 8 rushes.  It’s fact that despite the slow start, he still finished 10th in opportunity share, 11th in carries and 9th in targets among running backs.

 

Throughout his career, although it doesn’t seem like it, his numbers show him to be an RB1.  The strong finish to the season, combined with better coaching and a playoff entry make this team, Jacobs included, hungrier than ever.  It’s time to see Jacobs for what he really is:  just what you want to lead your team to a fantasy championship.

 

OMG!!! Week 1 Overreactions

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OMG!!! Week 1 Overreactions

By Ryan Wiebe

Week one has come and gone, with a lot of interesting results and leaving some fantasy managers who felt incredible after their draft in an absolute frenzy. Fantasy football remains a game forever dictated by our emotions. We pick players that we want to cheer for, who play for our favorite teams, and we’ll pass on players that we simply don’t like. After one week, we have an absolutely microscopic sample size, and I’m hear to tell you how and what you should, or should not overreact to.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt

Thankfully for owners of one of these two, you didn’t have to pay too heavily to get him. Chubb owners left Week 1 frazzled after Chubb was out-touched by Hunt, and saw almost all of the passing game work. Now is definitely the time to be concerned for the Chubb owners out there. Both of these guys, if we assume that the Browns don’t continue to resemble a freshly laid turd for the remainder of the season, are probably low end RB2’s, or high end flex plays. For Hunt, and what you paid for him, that’s just fine, and you should be thrilled, because his upside I think at this point is higher. If the Browns are terrible, and they appear to be terrible in perpetuity, the upside for Hunt remains much higher than for Chubb.

Overreaction Grade: Chicken Little-Chubb’s sky is falling at a tepid pace.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley’s absolute dud of 6 rushing yards against the Steelers no doubt sent several managers into panic mode, and if you play in a league with smart people, resulted in at least a couple lowball offers with the consensus top 2 pick in almost everyone’s drafts. Saquon, unlike Chubb however, has no significant backfield competition, and also has a QB under center that has shown that he at the very least has a chance to not be a complete bust (sorry Baker Mayfield). The Steelers defence looked tough, and a couple more weeks will show us if their performance was just a one-of, or if that defence is for real. Saquon owners though, don’t worry. The offence will continue to improve, and Saquon should see more use in the passing game as well, which just further bumps the upside. Don’t panic trade him for spare parts. He’s going to be just fine.

Overreaction Grade: Cool the jets, he’s going to be just fine.

Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas was a guy that I was thrilled to get at 10 overall in the main league that I play in, and as I watched a big chunk of the Saints on Sunday, I was less than thrilled with what I saw. There was always going to be a level of regression coming for MT- he caught 115 balls last year(!!!). Though he’s no doubt elite, that level of production was bound for a step or two back. The Saints heavily targeted and used Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook in the passing game and Thomas received a measly 5 targets for just 3 receptions. Not to mention, Thomas through the course of this game suffered a high ankle sprain, and then it was announced this evening that he was going to be out for several weeks, as the sprain was worse than initially thought. (Thankfully for me, I was able to unload him earlier today and am now feeling better and better with every passing moment). Even if Thomas re-captures 80% of what he was able to do last year, the Saints seem content not to force-feed him the ball, which is going to cap his ceiling even when he does get back from injury.

Overreaction Grade: Man, I’m happy that I don’t have to deal with this

Josh Jacobs

It’s always more fun to rag on the guys who suck. Managers and owners of teams love to kick the guys who are down...usually on other teams, but let’s take some positives from Week 1 too. Jacobs was a monster against the Panthers D, shredding them for 139 total yards and 3 TD’s. Not every game is going to be this massive, particularly in the TD department for Jacobs. But the Raiders are definitely going to continue to make a workhorse out of Jacobs, and he should continue to be a solid RB1 all season, even if he doesn’t score 3 TD’s every week.

Overreaction Grade: No overreaction needed.  This should be the norm.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

 CEH proved the hype was real, playing a big role in the Chiefs destruction of my lowly Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. It didn’t even feel like THAT spectacular of a game, and CEH was far and away the only Chiefs RB who played meaningful snaps, and we can expect that to continue.

Overreaction Grade: Not an overreaction

AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC West 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our FINAL stop in the team breakdown by divison is a division that has one of each draft target category. The AFC West has 1 FADE, 1 NEUTRAL, 1 BUY, and 1 BIG BUY. Before we get into the division featuring the reigning Super Bowl Champs, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Los Angeles Chargers

With significant offensive changes, the LA Chargers come into this season as a FADE. Having some very weapons questions of QB play and quality linger, which as an overarching theme matters the most in real and fantasy football.

QB Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert: Deep league priority FAs for matchup streaming. Taylor has shown to be a useful fantasy option in years past but the young gun 1st round rookie, Herbert, is waiting wings for his opportunity to shine.

RB Austin Ekeler: “Ladder Pick”, low RB1, High RB2, 18-20% auction, early round 2, Ekeler remains a PPR monster and without Melvin Gordon in front of him he has tremendous upside. QB Taylor will look to be an efficient passer looking early and often for Ekeler! I’m smashing his name if he is available in the 2nd round!

RB Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley: Both late round pick or $1 deep auction, both are end of bench RB options with Melvin Gordon gone, opportunity knocks, both are talented and present plenty of upside. Even in a lesser offense, opportunity is appealing for fantasy. I prefer Kelley to Jackson but I’m going to keep a close eye on both!

WR Keenan Allen: Low-WR2 to high-WR3, 8-9% Auction, round 5, Tyrod isn’t known for his deep passing game, so that already will limit Allen’s upside. BUT Keenan Allen is an amazing talent and defensive separator that he could make Tyrod life very easy with his silky smooth route running!

Love the player and targeting him despite non-ideal QB situation.

WR Mike Williams: WR5, round 13, 1-2% auction, big play threat may be the latest unappealing piece of this offense with Tyrod under center. Not to mention his shoulder injury may keep him out for the month or so of the season.

(Keenan Allen may be a nice sell high candidate after the first couple weeks)

I like the idea of Mike Williams and the potential of what he can bring to the field but am worried how the QB play may limit his upside and general draft/weekly stock.

TE Hunter Henry: TE1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Henry is a great player when he is healthy! I believe Henry and Ekeler will benefit the most from Tyrod’s style of play. Having said that, I will be drafting a lot of Henry since I value him above his ADP.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders complete their move from the bay to the desert. The Raiders will be NEUTRAL for fantasy purposes for the inaugural Las Vegas season! Young promising talent is there which makes fantasy feasting a possibility.

QB Derek Carr: QB2, deep league priority FA, in the past Carr has been able to be useful for fantasy but the QB position is so deep that it’s likely he won’t be needed outside of a total catastrophe. Good and young weapons surround him, so matchup specific upside is there.

RB Josh Jacobs: RB1, 20-21% auction, round 2, an impressive rookie campaign was capped due to a shoulder injury. He remains the top rusher in this offense, but lacks pass-catching upside with the depth behind him on the roster. He will show why he was a 1st round talent!

RB Jalen Richard:  Late round selection in deep leagues or priority FA. Raiders have potential to be playing from behind, so rostering pass catching options like this may be valuable, especially for PPR.

WR Henry Ruggs: “Ladder Pick”, WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, Las Vegas selected Ruggs as the top WR in the draft. This is quite significant since they passed on Jeudy and Lamb to do so. Ruggs has unique speed and think the team will find creative ways of getting the ball in his hands.

He is a player I will be aggressively targeting in all draft formats. In the back half of drafts if I am able to get someone who I believe can be the next Tyreek Hill, I think it would be foolish to pass up on that kind of opportunity. Best ball target!

WRs Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfroe are both deep league late round stashes. Also worth an end of bench pick in 12 team leagues! Both can be a nice way to round out your bench. Edwards fits perfectly as the X receiver, I am very excited for his potential! Renfroe has PPR upside!

TE Darren Waller: TE1, 4-5% auction, round 8, Waller is somebody that everyone is rooting for. His personal story is a wonderful reminder that football is more than a game but also an opportunity to display personal redemption in magnificent fashion. He could be the focal point of this passing game and be a matchup nightmare for defenses!

Denver Broncos

The Broncos made one thing very clear over the last year: Drew Lock is their man! The Denver offense has some new upgrades which makes their squad a Buy!

QB Drew Lock: QB2, priority FA, because QB is so deep we can look to add Lock for bye week/injury replacement! With a full arsenal around him he is being set up to succeed, let’s hope he is up to the task!

RB Melvin Gordon: RB2, 9-10% auction, round 5, Gordon finds a new home in the same division. Narrative street truthers are salivating at the Broncos-Chargers matchups this season! Gordon is an upgrade to the RB group, but his value will be correlated to Lock’s success!

RB Phillip Lindsay: RB4, 4% auction, round 9-10, Lindsay can still be utilized as a FLEX in a deep league but is a nice bench stash being part of what should be a good offense. He will enter RB2 territory if Gordon were to miss time!

WR Courtland Sutton: WR2, 13-14% auction, round 3, Sutton had a breakout season and became one of the highest ranks risers from 2019 to 2020. Surrounded by good complimentary pieces, some drafters have shied away but I think it will only help him as he should still dominate targets in this offense.

WR Jerry Jeudy: WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, Jeudy somehow lasted to Denver at 15th overall. This was an easy selection for the Broncos as he was arguably the most pro-ready WR prospect in the draft! A great compliment to Sutton, Drew Lock is a lucky man!

WR KJ Hamler: Priority FA, Hamler is a unique talent with amazing speed, another piece of this offense that has cemented Denver’s trust in Drew Lock! Denver got him in the 2nd even after landing Jeudy! Best ball stash, I’m very exciting to see what he is able to do in the NFL!

TE Noah Fant: Low-TE1, 2% auction, round 12, impressive rookie campaigns are rare for TEs but he is very athletic and really adds to the versatility of Denver’s offensive core. I’ll look for him to improve on a successful year 1.

It’s all on Drew Lock, Denver believes that he is their guy. I will not hesitate to pounce on Lock this year, it could payoff in a big way! Not much to lose taking a chance on him as your QB2.

Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning super bowl champs are a BIG BUY! Patrick Mahomes alone gives each piece of the core upside, but upside exists already with high caliber talent surrounding the big-armed Mahomes!

QB Patrick Mahomes: The QB1, my QB1, 10% Auction, round 4, I typically like to wait on QB but Mahomes (like Lamar Jackson) are very tempting if you absolutely love your first 3 picks. A full aresenal surrounds this dynamic thrower. I don’t see any SB hangover in KC!

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: RB1, 24-26% auction, late round 1, CEH was part of the monster LSU national champion team, KC thought so too by selecting him as the 1st RB in the draft! This is significant because of the RB class that he was a part of.

Andy Reid’s RB history speaks for itself! CEH is a pass catching back in an elite offense where he scoring upside for himself as well as rushing upside at the end of games when KC has a big league. He is no-brainer top 10 RB worthy of 1st round selection!

RB Darrel Williams: late round-$1 Auction stash.  We want players in elite offenses such as this! If CEH busts as a rookie or misses time, both become potential FLEX options or more!

WR Tyreek Hill: WR1 (my WR3), 21-22% auction, round 2, Hill is simultaneously a floor and ceiling play each week. He can bust a matchup wide open with his big play and YAC ability! I hope to see a lot of peace signs from him this season!

WRs Mecole Hardman (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 13) and Sammy Watkins (WR5, $1-2 auction, end of bench WR stash) present massive boom bust potential, both are Best Ball targets and will big trade prices throughout the season! Health is Watkins main concern as targets is Hardman’s.

TE Travis Kelce: The TE1, 15-16% auction, round 2, Kelce like Kittle is worth the 2nd round selection, TE is deep but these 2 are in a tier of their own as they can be true difference makers week to week! How is a defense supposed to stop this team?!

High scoring contests seem likely, should be enough feasting to go around but any opposing teams offensive weapons in general have inherent upside against the Chiefs since teams will have to be aggressive if they want to have a shot against KC! Fun will be had if your roster some Chiefs!

Josh Jacobs: A Top Five Dynasty Back

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Josh Jacobs: A Top Five Dynasty Back

By Matt Kelley

Viva Las Vegas, draft Josh Jacobs.

I know, that’s as cheesy as anything you’ll hear in Vegas, but the Las Vegas Raiders have something special with Josh Jacobs. 

Jacobs is currently going as RB9 in PPR setups, usually early-to-mid second round. Being drafted around him at the RB spot are the likes of Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Nick Chubb, Miles Sanders, and Austin Ekeler. Jacobs is the main reason why I love being slotted into the last couple of spots in a draft right now, and is a player that I’d push all my chips in on (ok...last Vegas reference). 

While Jacobs isn’t wildly far away from the top five RB’s already in ADP, let’s get into why I have him as a top-5 dynasty back. 

Raiders Backfield: 

What Jacobs already has in common with players like Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara is he has virtually no one challenging him for touches. 

The current running backs behind Jacobs include: Lynn Bowden Jr.(R), Devontae Booker, and Jalen Richard. Bowden is a third round rookie, likely to be used in multiple spots including special teams and not a real threat to steal carries. Booker hasn’t carved out a significant role in an offense since his rookie season in Denver in 2016. Richard is ultimately the biggest threat to Jacobs...not in terms of carries...but rather as a pass catcher out of the backfield. 

Jacobs is the clear lead back. 

Every Number Says ‘Give This Man The Ball’: 

Let’s just lay out the metrics for Josh Jacobs in his rookie season: 

  • 1150 rushing yards, seven rushing TD’s
  • 27 targets, 20 receptions, 166 receiving yards
  • 78 broken tackles (2nd most)
  • 16 Runs over 15 yards (3rd most) 
  • 3.48 Yards after contact per attempt (8th most)
  • 2nd highest graded RB per Pro Football Focus

In 13 games last season, Jacobs saw 242 carries, which was the 13th most in the NFL. That averages out to 18.6 attempts per game which is the same as Nick Chubb, 0.2 behind Ezekiel Elliott, and 1.6 behind Derrick Henry. 

Vegas is committed to getting Jacobs the rock. 

Jacobs did finish behind Richard and Deandre Washington last season in targets, both of whom had over 40 targets. With Washington out of the mix, that frees up 41 targets. The assumption is that Richard will largely assume these targets. If Richard took 25 of the vacated targets, that would leave 16 on the table. Bowden might get a couple of plays drawn up for him as he is pretty electric in open space. Let’s assume Bowden gets eight and leaves the latter eight to Jacobs. Jacobs would see 35 targets...not bad. While that’s the mathematical route to the targets for Jacobs, the coaching staff is well aware that he’s their best offensive player. They’re going to find ways to get Jacobs involved as much as possible. 

Per GM Mike Mayock, "I couldn't have been happier with Josh. Josh can catch a football, and I think challenge No. 1 for him in Year Two is developing those talents,” (Eddie Paskal-- raiders.com). 

Coach John Gruden and GM Mike Mayock tend to do things to the beat of their own drum. Last season, the Raiders committed to Jacobs, and often you have to read between the lines with coach and staff speak, but here...the numbers back up the ‘speak’. 

Teams require backfield depth and that’s what the other RB’s on the depth chart are. The Raiders aren’t scheming up big things for Booker nor Bowden that are going to ultimately take away from Jacobs.  

Dynasty Stock: 

I get that everyone would love to have CMC, Zeke, or Saquon to start their dynasty team, but Jacobs is younger than all of these players, as well as all of the players I mentioned at the top of the article. 

Age isn’t everything in dynasty, but when a player already has the production Jacobs had in his first campaign, his stock is only going to continue to trend up. He’s the clear number one back for his team.  The team is feeding him, he has virtually no competition for carries, and his pass work should increase. Everything is in line for Jacobs to be a star. 

If you’re in the back of the draft order, do yourself a favor and make Jacobs a cornerstone of your squad.