Josh Allen

Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

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Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

By Tim Lazenby

 

The consensus among experts is that Josh Allen is the QB1 in dynasty.  This statement is definitely not unfounded, as we’ll discuss.  When looking at contenders for the crown of top quarterback in dynasty, there are a few.  Many would put Patrick Mahomes right at the top.  Other names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and even Joe Burrow have popped up.  But, I think the biggest contender is none other than Justin Herbert.

Since Justin Herbert only has two seasons in the National Football League, let’s take a moment to break down the first two seasons for Justin Herbert and his top competition, Josh Allen, as passers.  

 

Passing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

YearAgeGSW/L/TAttCompYrdsTDsIntTD%Comp%1DLongY/AY/CY/GRateSk
201822115-6-0320169207410123.152.889756.512.3172.867.928
2019231610-6-046127130892094.358.8146536.711.4193.185.338

 

 

Justin Herbert

YearAgeGSW/L/TAttCompYrdsTDsIntTD%Comp%1DLongY/AY/CY/GRateSk
202022156-9-0595396433631105.266.6216727.310.9289.198.332
202123179-8-0672443501438155.765.9256727.511.3294.997.731

 

When it comes to prowess in the passing game, although Allen has greatly improved, he wasn’t even close to the same level in his first two seasons as Justin Herbert was in his.  Even now, Allen’s passing game, whether it be from the system or his talent itself, doesn’t approach the numbers that Justin Herbert has put out.  I’d still take Josh Allen over the vast majority of the league as a passer, but he’s quite a distance away from Herbert, at least by the numbers.

Let’s not forget about the running game for both Allen and Herbert though.  We all know that a rushing quarterback is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.  It’s a talent that can’t be ignored when considering dynasty QB1 status.  Here are the stats for each as a rookie and sophomore.

 

Rushing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year

AgeGSRushYrdsTDs1DLongYrds/AYrds/GAvg/GYACFumb Lost
2018221189631841457.152.67.42806
20192316109510942364.73196.824310

Justin Herbert

YearAgeGSRushYrdsTDs1DLongYrds/AYrds/GAvg/GYACFumb Lost
2020221555234520314.315.63.7575
2021231763302328364.817.83.7481

 

 

When it comes to the running game, it’s not even close.  Josh Allen is far superior in this regard.  While he’s not at the level of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or even Jalen Hurts, he rules supreme among the duo we’re talking about and is still a top option in the entire NFL in this regard.  It is important to note, however, that the rushing game of Justin Herbert is underrated and respectable: quite in the realm of what you look for in that elite quarterback when paired with their passing game.

Conclusion

It’s a tale of two very different entrances into the NFL.  Josh Allen’s beginning was very difficult.  With Kelvin Benjamin, as a journeyman at that point, and an aging LeSean McCoy as the best options, you can see why he struggled out of the gate.  The defense also ranked in the middle of the pack, often leaving Allen without his best shot at success.  His continued improvement is fantastic, and even though I’m only highlighting his first two seasons, I don’t need to tell you how good he’s become.  The current team surrounding him is also very good.  The Buffalo Bills don’t have many holes and they should win their division; clearing the way for another year of fantasy success for Josh Allen.  I’m sure we can expect similar production from Allen, but that’s the problem.  I don’t see things getting any better.

For the first time in 16 years, someone other than Philip Rivers was QB for the Chargers and Herbert was better than most predicted, even behind the league’s worst offensive line.  In his first two seasons, Herbert was sensational and he’s only gotten better.  He didn’t need a couple years to develop.  He’s simply always been amazing and he’s only getting better.  Coupled with the unbelievable off season that Tom Telesco has given to the Chargers, I can’t see Herbert’s stock doing anything else but skyrocket.  The offensive weapons have quietly improved, but the defense is the most helpful part to aid in Herbert’s continued success.  If the Chargers don’t finish as the league’s best defense it’d be surprising, but even if they don’t, they are light years better.  This will keep Herbert on the field more, hence scoring more fantasy points than ever before.

In today’s NFL, dual threat quarterbacks are all the rage, but some are just so good that they don’t need to rely on it.  Take the discount now and bank on Justin Herbert as dynasty’s QB1 moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Post Draft Report: Bills

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Post Draft Report: Bills

By Zach Owen

Draft Picks

  • Round 1, Pick No. 30: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami (FL)
  • Round 2, Pick No. 61: Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE, Wake Forest
  • Round 3, Pick No. 93: Spencer Brown, OT, Northern Iowa
  • Round 5, Pick No. 161: Tommy Doyle, OT, Miami (Ohio)
  • Round 6, Pick No. 203: Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston
  • Round 6, Pick No. 212: Damar Hamlin, S, Pitt
  • Round 6, Pick No. 213: Rachad Wildgoose, CB, Wisconsin
  • Round 7, Pick No. 236: Jack Anderson, G, Texas Tech

Notable Free Agency Moves

  • Additions
    • Mitchell Trubisky, QB
    • Emmanuel Sanders, WR
    • Matt Brieda, RB
    • Jacob Hollister, TE
  • Losses
    • John Brown, WR
    • Tyler Kroft, TE
  • Re-Signed
    • Matt Milano, LB
    • Jon Feliciano, G
    • Daryl Williams, RT

As expected, the Bills did not invest very much in their skill positions during the draft. Marquez Stevenson in round 6 was the only skill position player they added and he looks to mostly serve as a depth piece behind their already strong receiving corps. There were discussions about drafting a RB but they seem happy with who they have, especially with Najee Harris and Travis Etienne coming off the board before their 1st round pick. With them also not making many big free agency signings on offense, it looks like the Bills are going to look pretty similar to last year. Can’t blame them though considering they were one game away from the Super Bowl.

Fantasy Highlights

The Bills have a solid RB group but the offense is going to run through Josh Allen, literally. For the RBs, it’s going to come down to who scores the TDs each game and your guess is as good as mine there. This is definitely going to be a RB by committee with four possible options so I wouldn’t be happy with any of them as my RB1 or even RB2. Any of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Antonio Williams, or Matt Breida could end up running the show each week and that’s just risky from a fantasy perspective, though probably pretty good for the Bills themselves. They all have decent flex or bye week value though so they might be worth rostering if they’re cheap enough. 

For the wide receivers, Stefon Diggs is definitely the one to own. He had 166 targets in his first year with the Bills which was 1st overall in the NFL last year. They made mostly lateral moves in their receiving corps so again, I would expect something similar from Diggs and Allen in 2021. While Diggs is basically a lock for Fantasy production, the #2 on the team is in flux. Obviously Cole Beasly and Emmanuel Sanders have shown they can be serviceable WRs and they should continue to be this year. They are both pretty old though (32 and 34 respectively) so I don’t expect much in terms of dynasty value. Gabriel Davis on the other hand is a player I’d be looking to buy in dynasty. He performed pretty well last year for a rookie (4 games with 15+ .5PPR points) and I could see him jumping into the #2 role pretty soon, which on a high powered offense like the Bills means a lot of fantasy points.

Now the core of the team: Josh Allen. Like I said, the offense is going to run through Allen. He’s a playmaker with his legs and his arms. He stretches opposing defenses by himself and he has very good weapons to work with. With some improvements on the offensive line, though no major changes, Josh Allen should continue to produce at a high level. There are some concerns out there about Allen’s 2020 season being a fluke and expecting him to regress but I don’t buy it. The Bills have a great coaching staff and, to me, it looks like 2020 Josh Allen is the real Josh Allen. He definitely needed time to develop out of college but he has shown his ability to learn and get better. Plus he’s going to be hungry after missing out on the Super Bowl so I don’t expect him to slow down anytime soon.

AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We begin our journey through the AFC with the AFC East. This is a very intriguing division for both real life and for fantasy football. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase’s mannerisms at his introduction press conference from a couple years ago still haunt me; this isn’t the reason why the Jets are a FADE. The reason is because he is the coach. Big Weirdo. Bad Coach. That press conference...I just can’t even...

QB Sam Darnold: QB2, priory FA for injury or matchup dependent bye week replacement, certainly has upside but it is a capped for the incompetence of the HC. He is a franchise QB to build around which I’m confident Joe Douglas will do. Dynasty buy!!

RB Le’Veon Bell: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 4, he’s not the Bell that we feel in love with in Pittsburgh but talent and high volume is rare, intriguing but with caution. Game scripts aren’t likely to be in Bell’s favor. Also the inconvenient truth is in town, the eternal Frank Gore.

WR Jamison Crowder: “Ladder Pick” WR3 (if robust RB with elite TE, ideal WR4, 4-5% auction, round 10, he will be a target monster on a team that is likely to be often playing from behind.

Crowder is one of my most drafted players so far this year. Jets WR1 that will get volume with (likely) game script help that is being drafted in the late rounds? YES PLEASE!

WR Breshad Perriman: WR5-6, 1-2% auction, round 14, as the end of your bench WR, Perriman’s late season breakout last year landed him a prime role in this offense. Plenty of upside, not much to lose at cost.

WR Denzel Mims: priority FA, this steal in the 2020 NFL draft could make a great pair with Darnold. He got banged up early in training camp...we apparently just can’t have nice things in 2020. Keep him on your radar!

TE Chris Herndon: TE2 with TE1 upside, $1, round 13. Can I call Chris Herndon the DeVante Parker of TEs? So much upside, so much promise, but little to show for outside of inconsistent flashes of greatness. I’m afraid we will forever say “this is the year” with him as with Parker.

Parker, of course finally broke out last year, same could happen with Herndon! We need him on field though! TE is very deep, so other options remain but certainly juicy upside. Not much to risk if he is your TE2 in a deep league. Could be delicious trade bait!

New England Patriots

The new look Patriots are a NEUTRAL offensive core, with looks of player worth targeting, none of them are worth reaching for. An intriguing offense year in and year out, that remains, but it isn’t business as usual this season. The GOAT is now in Tampa and in comes a former MVP, because of course.

QB Tom Br... Jarrett Sti...Cam Newton: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 12, Cam could be an absolute steal at his ADP. This feels a little bit like Lamar Jackson last year, hopefully Cam is actually healthy now. Plenty of upside, going late…

The NFL is more fun with Cam on the field. Inherent rushing upside could be exponential with some uncertainty in the RB group!

RB James White: RB3 6-7% auction, round 7-8, this zeroRB legend has more upside for PPR, and is seriously an ideal weapon for Cam. With concerns regarding Sony Michel and Lamar Miller, White could become a lot more than just a PPR floor play.

RB Damien Harris: RB4 (robust WR with elite TE), ideal RB5, 2-3% auction, round 12, opportunity in a good offense is a key to great fantasy late round value, you’ll have nothing to lose and everything to gain with Harris. Keep an eye out for Rex Burkehead if any RBs are to miss extended time.

WR Julian Edelman: Low-WR3 (robust RB), ideal WR4, 7-8% auction, round 8, Edelman is another ideal target for Cam. Edelman can help Cam’s passing efficiency. I’m going to target Edelman aggressively. PPR target.

WR N’Keal Harry: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, Harry disappointed as a rookie primarily due to struggling with injuries. He has nowhere to go but up! Could be a steal in the late rounds!

TEs Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene are interesting dynasty prospects. Would it be something if the Patriots trade for disgruntled Cleveland TE David Njoku mid-season…would love to see it!

Miami Dolphins

The ADP of the offensive core is a clear representation of why this offense is a FADE, BUT the Dolphins have interesting upside as they look to build off of the semi-surprising success they showed last season.

QBs - Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tua Tagovailoa - Miami landed Tua without the full blown “tank”, he is an incredibly intriguing prospect to me. He is the QB they will build around. *Russell Wilson vibes*

Fitzpatrick is still the lovable bearded gun-slinger, but undraftable in standard roster 12 team leagues. dId YoU kNoW hE wEnT tO hArVaRd?! *Yawn*

RBs Jordan Howard: Low-RB3, ideal RB4, 5-6%, round 10, he is Rodney Dangerfield, he gets no respect despite consistently producing 1000 yard rushing seasons. Power back who is able to catch, under-utilized in that regard.

RB Matt Breida: RB4, 4-5%, round 10-11, Brieda has the speed and pass catching upside but is a little frustrating to roster with injury concerns. Good player with good opportunity. Not going to reach for him, looking for value!

Howard and Breida compliment each other well and should work well together in the offense. Hard to predict week to week usage but I am targeting them as a value in drafts.

WR DeVante Parker: WR3, 6-7% auction, round 7, the Parker breakout *finally* happened and it was indeed glorious to see him ball out. I’ve been down the road of hoping for upside too many times so I will only be drafting him at a value this year.

WR Preston Williams: WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14, really exciting rookie season ended abruptly from injury breaking the hearts of the fantasy world. I’d expect a slow start but certainly targeting him as my end of bench WR!

TE Mike Gesicki: “Ladder Pick” Low-TE1, 2-3% auction, round 12, Gesicki was an athletic standout at the combine 2 years ago, the fruit of his athleticism translated on the field last year.

The pass catching TE who is practically a WR has lots of opportunity in an offense that will likely feature have favorable matchups and game scripts. I’m a Pavlovian dog and Gesicki is the bell!

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are known for their passionate fans, but fortunately for the Bills Mafia, the Bills are on the rise! This revamped offensive core is given the NEUTRAL label from me. I’m targeting, but not reaching for, this improved group!

QB Josh Allen: Low-QB1, 3% auction, round 10, massive arm and rushing upside makes him a very intriguing player. New weapon, Stefon Diggs should contribute to his passing efficiency increasing. Big upside!

RBs Devin Singletary: (low-RB2, ideal RB3, 11-12% auction, round 6) and Zack Moss (RB4, 4% auction, round 9) are a nice hound duo is an offense that is trending up. Good defensive play is typical so there should be plenty of opportunity for touches.

I see Singletary as more of the volume play, with Moss getting the pass catching and potentially the goal line role. Upside can be capped by Allen rushing ability. Both are very talented, it will be very interesting to see how this situation plays out.

WR Stefon Diggs: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), high WR3, 9-10% auction, round 7, Diggs finds a new home in Buffalo. I think Diggs is a tremendous addition to this offense, he could be an amazing value! Bills paid a big price for him as they build around their franchise QB.

WR John Brown: “Ladder Pick” WR5, 3-4% auction, round 12, the Diggs-Brown duo is an underrated one! Diggs will attract the tougher defensive matchup which will help make life easier on John Brown. Everything to gain and nothing with a player at his value! Perfect sleeper!

WR Cole Beasley: priority FA, PPR target, in the mood of Julian Edelman, this scrappy WR is incredibly underrated and often forgotten about. He should be rostered in all leagues if Diggs or Brown were to miss time!

TE Dawson Knox: Low-TE2, priority FA, TE is so deep this year that he undraftable in standard rule 12 team leagues. This breakout candidate could benefit from Stefon Diggs presence the most! Add him to your watch list!