Jonathan Taylor

Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

By Bob Miller

 

As the NFL Draft approaches, dynasty owners wait with anticipation to see where these rookies end up. Where does Breece Hall end up.. how about Malik Willis? There are so many questions yet to be answered. One question that everyone seems to know the answer to is “Who is the overall RB1 in dynasty?” Jonathan Taylor seems to be the unanimous answer to that question, but I have my doubts. I know that may seem crazy, but here me out. It's obvious that buying Jonathan Taylor seems like a no-brainer. Not only am I going to give you some reasons to buy JT, but I'm going to give you some reasons to actually sell him as well.

 

 

Age

Taylor is entering his age 23 season and has his whole future ahead of him. Any educated Dynasty League owner knows that a running backs' dynasty value doesn't last very long. The younger the better. It seems that around that age 26-27 season is when we start seeing issues such as a declining skill set that results in the drafting of a younger, cheaper running back. The biggest issue as of late is their large cap number. Past stud running backs with these possible issues include Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. All of them could be traded or outright released this next offseason. With all that being said, it makes Jonathan Taylor worth that much more in dynasty.

 

Touches and Durability

Taylor is an unquestioned workhorse running back, which is rare these days. Some fantasy analysts had strong concerns that his usage in college would affect his performance/durability in the NFL. So far, those analysts have been wrong. In fact, last season Taylor had 372 total touches that included 332 carries and 40 receptions. His durability is not an issue as he has only missed one game in his two seasons so far. The sky could be the limit with Taylor running behind that elite offensive line in Indianapolis. You can plug him in as your RB1 for the next couple of seasons with very little concern. You can’t say that about many running backs these days.

 

 

 

Worst RB1 since 2015

This past season Taylor finished at 22.54 fantasy points per game.. the worst overall RB1 numbers since Devonta Freeman in 2015. Derrick Henry actually averaged 26.92 fantasy points per game last season before going down with his injury. In 2020 Taylor would have finished 4th behind McCaffrey, Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. Listen.. I’m not saying he stinks, but in PPR leagues, he just isn’t the unanimous RB1 to me. Although he should be a lock for 20 fantasy points a game, we could see Henry, McCaffrey, and Dalvin finishing ahead of him this coming season. Since this in dynasty, I still have JT ranked ahead of all three of those guys. With that being said, I can see a players like Najee Harris, Cam Akers, or Javonte Williams taking claim as the overall RB1 in PPR Dynasty this time next season.

 

Selling Price

With Taylor ranked as the dynasty RB1, it makes me wonder what I can get for him. That hype and dynasty ranking makes him more valuable than he may actually be. Why not dangle him out there and see if you can get a king’s ransom in exchange. I haven’t seen him move much in dynasty, however I have seen some incredible returns in the deals that I have seen. Just yesterday I saw Taylor traded for McCaffrey, Kelce, and Deebo Samuel. I’d take that all day. He was traded in another dynasty league I’m in for JK Dobbins, two mid 1sts, a 2nd, and a 2023 1st. Um.. yes please! After seeing these returns, I absolutely encourage you to see what kind of haul you can get for Taylor.

 

I’ve said this a million times.. I’m a businessman when it comes to dynasty. Not one player of mine is ever “off-limits”. I’m always in the business of making a profit when the opportunity presents itself. With that being said, don't trade Jonathan Taylor just for the sake of making a trade. We all have one of those guys in our leagues haha. Shop Taylor to see what you can get, and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. You’re not married to these guys, and everything can change with a snap of the finger, ask Christian McCaffrey owners. There is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping Taylor, as he should be a steady top 3-5 dynasty RB for the next few years. However if someone offers you the moon, smash the accept button.

 

 

You can follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBobFF

Trade Explorer Week 4

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Trade Explorer: Week 4

by Zach Owen

Trying to trade a player by itself can be a grind sometimes. Even worse are trades involving multiple players/picks on both sides with varying values. Trade calculators can be helpful for these types of trades but you become dependent on the calculator’s rankings/values of players. What if you’re much higher or lower on a player but still aren’t sure how they compare to the other pieces of the trade? I’ve got a couple of those kinds of trades that I wanted to take a look at today and I’ll show you an easy trick I use to help me out.

 

Trade #1 - Stefon Diggs, Odell Beckham Jr., & 22 1st for DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, 22 2nd

The first trade we have involves a lot of mid-to-high valued WRs. The only thing we know about the league is that it’s SuperFlex. Since all the players are WRs, the scoring and league construction shouldn’t really affect the player values (unless there is some sort of weird rule but we’ll assume there’s not). 

 

So how do you approach a trade like this? We’ve got a 2 WR for 2 WR swap with some picks to try to even it out. Diggs is the most valuable player here but it obviously isn’t a clear cut 2-for-1 trade. Does the 1st round pick for 2nd round pick fill in the value difference between the WR swaps? I’m sure some people see a trade like this and can take it all in but looking at these trades as a whole for me just doesn’t work. My simple trick to handling bigger trades is just breaking them down into smaller pieces. I find pieces on one side that add up to one (or more) on the other side and keep doing that until I have my answer. It’s a pretty simple idea but I’ll show my thought process with this trade. 

 

Note: These are my player evaluations and your opinions on players might affect how you feel about this trade. The process itself will work for you but just switch the pieces around as needed.

 

  • First I would say that Beckham + a 22 1st is worth slightly less than Moore. Moore is a young player and finally seems to be hitting his stride with Sam Darnold in town. Beckham also seems to be on track to do well the rest of the year. They both have questions and I’d still favor Moore in this piece of the trade but it’s fairly close.
  • Now that leaves us with Diggs for Robinson and a 2nd which is where the trade breaks down. I value Diggs much more than Robinson and a 2nd fills the gap a bit but not enough. So for this piece I would take Diggs no question.

 

So given those two smaller trades within the bigger trade, I would take the Diggs/Beckham/1st side. I gave Moore the edge in the first piece, but Diggs had a much bigger edge in the second piece. Really it’s the extra picks that are swaying it towards the Diggs side for me. Ignore the picks and it’s a pretty fair trade.

 

Trade #2 - Jonathan Taylor and 22 1st for Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, & Kareem Hunt

Here’s another trade where using my trick helps me out. Again, the only thing we know about this league is that it’s SuperFlex. It’d be nice to know if it’s a point per reception (PPR) league or not but I generally assume at least .5 PPR if I don’t know. 

 

  • So to start, I think Diggs is about equal to Taylor. I’m sure this is where some amount of people will differ from me but my dislike of Taylor is a topic for another article. If you like Taylor a lot, this trade might look different for you but you can still use my trick. Maybe you’d need Diggs + Hunt to move Taylor and that’s okay. For me in this example though, I’m going to say Diggs and Taylor are the same.
  • With that, we’re left with Robinson and Hunt for a 22 1st. I’m definitely taking the Robinson/Hunt side of this. Robinson by himself is worth a 1st and Hunt is almost close to being a 1st. 
    • If you think Taylor is the same as Diggs + Hunt from the first piece, that leaves Robinson vs a 1st which is much closer. The different player evaluations obviously change whether you like a trade or not but the process is still the same.

 

Summary

 

Like I said, looking at large trades as a whole just doesn’t work for me. Something just doesn’t click when comparing so many pieces and that’s just with these easy 3 for 3 trades. I’ve seen, and been involved in, trades with 5 or more pieces on each side which I don’t even think about evaluating without breaking it down. 

 

So hopefully this helps with any trades like this you come across but you can use this advice in other places you might struggle in. Got a big work or school project that just seems like too much? Break it down into bite size chunks and take it a step at a time. You don’t get bonus points in life for stressing yourself out. 

 

Thanks for reading and I hope this helped. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @NeutralZoneFF if you have any Fantasy related questions.

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!

Do the Colts Have the Right QB for Fantasy…Or Reality? 

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Do the Colts Have the Right QB for Fantasy...Or Reality? 

By Matt Kelley

I was mid fantasy draft last year in my ‘home league’ that I play in every year, when I received the notification that Andrew Luck was calling it a career. I had just made a selection, somewhere in the eighth round or so, and I just stared at my phone in bewilderment. One of the NFL’s most revered QBs was walking away during what seemed to be the prime of his career. 

Luck was unable to continue on with the grueling reality for him that was: play football, rehab, train, play football, rehab….you get it. A vicious cycle. Quick side note-- if anything comes up during a draft about a player, I usually don’t bother to tell anyone I’m drafting with as you should always be paying attention to these things while drafting. However, I did make it known that Luck had retired, and even with advanced warning given, he was still selected about two picks later.

Whoops. 

Anyway, the Indianapolis Colts were left with no choice but to turn over the reins of the QB position to Jacoby Brissett. The Colts would go 7-9 in the year that Andrew Luck retired right before the beginning of the season.  This was Brissett’s first real shot at being a starter (aside from 2107, when Brissett was traded to the Colts in September to fill in for Luck who didn’t return). 

Fast forward to today, where the Colts have brought in veteran QB Philip Rivers on a one-year, $25 million deal. Mind you, the Colts gave Brissett a two-year extension at a total of $30 million before last season started.  So as we head into 2020, it seems the Colts feel they have an opportunity to win now by bringing in Philip Rivers. While I’m not a NFL GM, I’m not so sure this will pay off in reality, nor in fantasy. 

Let’s take a look at why... 

The Offensive Line: 

Regardless of who you believe should be starting, the Colts will have the benefit of going into 2020 with Pro Football Focus’ top rated offensive line. Every player on the offensive line played over 1,000 snaps last season. Continuity goes a long way for offensive lines. For Philip Rivers, this is a massive upgrade. However, being part of a new team for the first time since 2004 is still something he has to adjust to. 

Rivers is the definition of a pocket QB. Since he took over as the Chargers starting QB in 2006, he’s only rushed for over 100 yards in a single season once. Brissett rushed for 228 yards in 15 games in 2019, and he also added four scores on the ground last season... one more than Rivers has in his entire career. The running game for Indy will thrive with this line and Rivers will have time to throw, but likely won’t add any real production on the ground himself. 

The Surrounding Cast: 

As a whole, Philip Rivers actually walks into a surrounding cast that is a slight downgrade than the one he had previously in San Diego/Los Angeles. Both the Chargers and Colts have excellent run games. As for the pass catchers, Keenan Allen is a better wide receiver than T.Y. Hilton at this point in their careers. Chargers tight end Hunter Henry is a player that is on the rise, while Eric Ebron has departed Indy, leaving the Colts with Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox. 

I know a lot of people are beating the drum for Jack Doyle now that he has a clear path to workload and because Rivers likes to throw to the TE, but Doyle has only one season over 59 catches in seven seasons. Perhaps I’ll be wrong about Doyle and his value for fantasy, but if a player is going to break out it’s likely not in their eighth season. 

While Mike Williams has been hit and miss throughout his time with Rivers on the Chargers, he is a veteran that provided a solid deep ball connection. Indy has the hyped rookie Michael Pittman Jr. as well as the relative unknown of Parris Campbell, as he only played seven games last season. 

More than any other player, Rivers has to adjust to his surroundings here in a shortened offseason. Timing goes a long way, and there’s a strong possibility of some bumps in the road to get things going in 2020 for Rivers and company. 

The Case For and Against Philip Rivers: 

Yards, yards, and more yards. 

There’s no denying that Rivers moves the ball through the air as he has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 11 of his last 12 seasons. He has also accounted for 30 or more passing touchdowns in six of those 12 seasons. Since 2011, Rivers has thrown 18 or more interceptions four times, including last season when he threw 20. Not ideal. In four point per passing TD leagues, Rivers scored 15 or more fantasy points in seven games. Pretty serviceable games. He scored less than 13 fantasy points in eight games. A bit less serviceable. Overall, last season was Rivers’ lowest fantasy output since 2012. 

The Chargers were a team in disarray for much of last season, as running back Melvin Gordon held out for training camp and the first three weeks of the regular season. The incredibly poor offensive line play for the Chargers gave Rivers almost no time to make quality decisions. Rivers had his lowest TD% of his career and tied his second highest mark for INT%. 

Rivers is currently going as QB22 in drafts, so the risk is pretty well in tune with his ADP at pick 148 overall. He provides upside in yardage and touchdowns, but he’s also not likely to give you anything in the rushing department and could possibly throw his way out of a good game with interceptions. 

The Case For and Against Jacoby Brissett: 

Brissett started last season pretty hot, earning more than 16 fantasy points in five of his first six games (three of those with 20+). Unfortunately, over the last nine games he would turn in four performances in which he produced single digit fantasy points. Not great. 

Brissett adds the threat of at least escaping the pocket to make something happen. His rushing wasn’t consistent game to game, but he did end the season with 228 rushing yards over 15 games and four scores on the ground. Brissett accounted for 22 total TD’s to only 6 INT’s. Efficient. That’s pretty good both for fantasy and for reality, especially when you consider Brissett’s top target for a number of weeks was Zach Pascal. 

For as much as Brissett’s average depth of target is talked about, T.Y. Hilton still had five receiving TD’s in the first five games of the season that he played... just one shy of Hilton’s TD total for all of 2018. 

The Colts could easily mirror last year’s Tennessee Titans by running the ball, playing defense, and just being efficient through the air. This fits with what Brissett does pretty well. 

The Colts did take Jacob Eason (QB out of Washington) in the fourth round of the NFL draft. That’s not huge draft capital, but it is worth noting. Eason can be viewed as a project QB and third on the QB depth chart. 

Where We Are: 

As mentioned in other pieces I’ve written, let’s follow the money. 

There was a ton of positive coach-speak last season popping up after the decision to pay Jacoby Brissett. However, the money in the one year deal for Rivers says the Colts look at him as the starter and that they believe he gives the Colts a better chance to win this season. The Colts wouldn’t be the first team to bring in a veteran QB only to have him get beat out in camp, but given the investment, I’d be surprised if Brissett is the opening day QB in Indy. 

No one could have predicted the shortened off-season that the NFL now has however, that’s the reality of 2020. No matter how you cut it, Brissett will go into camp with a better feel for this offense.  However, unless something comes out of camp that the tides have turned and Brissett is anointed the starter, you can’t really depend on him for redraft. You can’t depend on him for dynasty either, but I’d certainly be stashing him. Rivers will be 39 years old in December, and while he’s been an ironman of sorts, Father Time could catch up to him and provide an opportunity for Brissett to get another shot under center. 

If I knew going into the season that Brissett would be under center, I’d feel better about the Colts as well as the surrounding cast. 

Yes...I’m advocating that Brissett is the better option for the Colts. 

He’d need to prove himself more this season to be a long term dynasty investment, but if  T.Y. Hilton remained healthy, the offensive line stayed steady, and Jonothan Taylor added to the ground game, Brissett could remain efficient enough to sneak the Colts into the playoffs and be the better option for your fantasy squad. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @ThatMattKelley