JK Dobbins

Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

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Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

By Darren Smith

 

The 2020 and 2021 draft classes were loaded with some promising young Running Backs. Unfortunately, the injury bug waits for no man. Three big names drafted in the early rounds the last two years had their seasons cut short and had Dynasty Managers asking questions on what to do with their high 1st round picks. Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, and Cam Akers all missed almost the entirety of last season with serious injuries, but their outlook on the 2022 season is in question. I’m here to put your mind at ease, and these injuries have created huge BUY opportunities with these talented backs.

 

Cam Akers

Cam Akers was the first domino to fall in the laundry list of injuries that happened in the 2021 Preseason. Akers tore his Achilles during the Rams training camp, leaving his sophomore season in jeopardy. Cam was drafted 52nd overall in the 2020 draft and had a promising rookie season leaving managers hungry for more as his fantasy capital rose. When news was announced that Akers tore his Achilles, it broke the hearts of many managers as this injury has one of the highest impacts on future NFL careers based on history.

However, modern medicine has progressed, and Akers had a successful surgery and rehab as he was able to return in Week 18, and the Rams postseason. While his box score didn’t turn many heads, the truth was in the film. Akers looked explosive in the minimal carries he was given, and his speed remained the same. Most managers were pleasantly surprised as he didn’t regress as much as initially thought as it was pretty much a miracle he came back this season at all.

The Rams went on to win the Super Bowl as they went “All In” this season. The RB position will have vacancy after free agency with Sony Michel likely to part ways, and Darrell Henderson being on the last year of his contract. This paves a direct path to a bell-cow role for Akers as he has all off season to continue recovery. There aren't too many players that I am more excited to see come back to NFL action than Cam Akers. With managers panicked about the stigma of an Achilles injury, Akers is being shopped around in most leagues for a discount. While there is some doubt he will ever return to true form, the sheer volume and workload that he will carry into 2022 will be enough. Akers is a strong buy and should exceed all expectations when he fully recovers.

 

Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie campaign with a Lisfranc injury in his left foot. Drafted 25th overall in 2021 by Jacksonville and coming off a stellar season at Clemson, Etienne had huge buzz coming into last season. Dynasty managers had to spend high draft picks on Etienne in hopes of becoming a bell-cow right out the gate. Etienne was only in the 2nd week of Preseason when it was declared he would miss the year, so managers didn’t get any chance to get a gauge on his production, and ultimately his fantasy value.

To me, this injury can be spun in a positive way. The Jacksonville Jaguars were a complete mess the entire season with new head coach Urban Meyer, who thankfully was fired before the season ended. There were obvious growing pains with the rookie Quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, leaving the offense stagnant and in the bottom tier of the league. Etienne may have dodged a bullet in 2021 as things are looking positive for the upcoming season. He has progressed significantly since the initial injury, publicly stating “I definitely feel like as of now I'll be ready to go for training camp.” While injured, Travis has been studying the game and learning a new offense with his former Clemson teammate Lawrence. This dynamic duo should make some noise this year with some experience under their belts. Not to mention change in the staff, with the Jags hiring Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson. 

Travis was a top pick in rookie drafts across the board, and obviously his value declined after the injury. If you haven’t already, Etienne is a perfect buy candidate for the upcoming season. Although he is progressing well, season ending injuries are never taken lightly by managers and leave doubt as to whether they will ever return to true form. Based on his young age, modern medicine and training, and recovery of Lisfranc injuries, I have strong confidence that Etienne will come back just as explosive as his record-breaking days in Clemson. Go after some worried owners with late 1st round pick offers. If you currently own Etienne, don’t take any low ball offers - holding is the right move as his value will shoot up when Travis retakes the field.

 

JK Dobbins

The NFL and fantasy managers didn’t even get a chance to breathe before the next devastating injury to a young RB in Baltimore. Dobbins tore his ACL during the final Preseason game of the 2021 season and ruined some Redraft leagues seconds after the news broke. Poised for an excellent sophomore year, managers were devastated being so close to the start of the regular season. Dobbins finished as the RB 23 in PPR leagues during his rookie campaign, finishing the final game with 160 rushing yards and two touchdowns. 

Being the 55th pick in the 2020 draft, Dobbins was another asset with high rookie draft capital in dynasty leagues. Luckily, an ACL tear may take time to heal, but in recent years it has had little effect on the remainder of NFL players careers. The Ravens had incredibly bad luck in 2021 with significant injuries to most of their skill players, including QB Lamar Jackson. With all players returning after recovery this offseason, Dobbins comes back to the Number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. With promising pass catching abilities, Dobbins has all the potential in the world to be a top back.

Dobbins had successful surgery six months ago, and every piece of news since has said rehab is going as well as it could be. GM Eric Decosta publicly stated “we are very, very confident that he will come back and be the type of player that he was two years ago. This should give you no doubt that the 23 year old coming into this 3rd season will be heavily utilized to his potential. JK Dobbins is a buy at the right price. Given the lack of RB talent in the 2022 class, high draft picks can be traded to acquire Dobbins. He should be a strong hold if you already have him on your rosters.

 

Conclusion

While all three Running Backs have had devastating injuries that caused them to miss the majority of the 2021 season, all signs point to full recovery and full workloads in 2022. Don’t let injury news scare you into avoiding these backs. They are all buy candidates, and should be targeted in the early rounds of startups as I have seen them fall over some guys that just won’t have the same production. Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins will be an integral part in the future of NFL Running Backs. What do you think? Are you concerned about reinjury, volume, or something else? 

 

Let me know your thoughts on Twitter, @FFBirdGang.

5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

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5 Players to Buy in Dynasty

by Bob Miller

 

It’s officially the Fantasy Football offseason, but for those of us that play in Dynasty leagues, now is the time to start making deals to upgrade our teams. Today I’m going to give you five players I’m actively looking to acquire this offseason. 

 

 

JK Dobbins

When I think of JK Dobbins’ potential, I get excited. Dobbins showed everyone in 2020 that he was arguably the best RB in that draft. Obviously Jonathan Taylor would beg to differ. Anyhow, Dobbins was poised to take a big step forward last season, but he unfortunately tore his ACL in a preseason game. No worries, Dobbins is right on track to return to training camp. I expect big things from him and this Ravens rushing attack, but some fantasy owners are still worried about 3 things: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and the below average offensive line. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens are focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason, and they run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. Don’t forget, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry in 2020, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens were throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increased his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. Grab him now at an RB2 price, because he will be an RB1 for the next few years.

 

Cam Akers

This one is a little tricky. I don't believe you can get Akers at a big discount, but I believe you can get him now quite a bit cheaper than a year from now. Trading for Akers is going to take some skill, because those owners who have held onto him are now looking forward to using him this coming season. Don't let that discourage you from trying. When I picture Cam Akers potential all I see is Todd Gurley. Gurley was a touchdown machine and an absolute fantasy stud in Sean McVay’s offense. I see that same potential for Cam Akers over the next few seasons to come. Trade for him now if you still can.

 

Lamar Jackson

 Lamar Jackson is the perfect example, and I mean perfect example of a buy low candidate. Jackson was a mid QB1 at best last season. He also missed the last 4 games of the season. Keep in mind that Baltimore was missing their starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley, running backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and Nick Boyle, the best blocking TE in the league. Like I said previously, Baltimore is extremely focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason. Combine that with those players returning from injury, Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown, Rashad Bateman, and we may have another MVP performance from Lamar in 2022. Go get him.

 

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb finished as WR15 in PPR leagues last season. For a top 5 ranked WR in dynasty, that was quite a disappointment to say the least. He really faded down the stretch as well. That didn’t help either, but I have good news. Michael Gallup is expected to leave via free agency and Amari Cooper is rumored to be a cap casualty this offseason. That’s a lot of targets potentially leaving. If those things happen then Dallas has no choice but to throw it Lamb’s way often. Aside from injury, I see no way that CeeDee Lamb doesn’t finish as a top 10 WR this upcoming season. If you can get him at a discount, I say go for it.

 

Saquon Barkley

Someone in your dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Saquon Barkley. That’s what I like to see. I have been trading for Barkley at a discount wherever I can. We all know what he is capable of, and that Giants offense should be quite different with Brian Daboll coaching. I know Barkley has had some injuries, but personally I do not see Saquon as an injury prone player, just someone with a little bit of bad luck lately. I don’t have to sell you on Barkley, we all know what he’s capable of. I’m just here to tell you that I have no problem trading for him. Better days are ahead of Saquon. If you can get him at a discount, make it happen.

 

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

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The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

By Alex French

It's finally here! The 2021 NFL season is officially underway. The draft is about a month away. Those not-so-free agents are able to sign with teams, and it's time to dig into our research to decide which players to target, as well as avoid during draft season. Considering the perceived scarcity at running back, I think it’s only appropriate  we discuss a few. With draft season in full swing, I’ll be focused on some rookies from the last draft class. More specifically, I want to focus on D’Andre Swift and  JK Dobbins. Just for good measure, I’m going to include another who has been quite polarizing of late, James Robinson.

D’Andre Swift; Detroit Lions 

Selected with the 3rd overall pick of the second round in the 2020 NFL draft, Swift perhaps didn’t have the most exciting landing spot. However, a case can be made that he made his presence known right away. In his first game, he was on the field for over 40% of the team’s plays. That number isn’t eye-popping, however, he saw immediate usage in the red zone with 2 opportunities. That is uncommon for rookies. Swift had only 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of the Lions offensive plays. Yet, in his limited work, he managed to get 26 red zone opportunities, converting on 10 of them. That’s good for a %38.5 conversion rate. Perhaps equally as important, Swift was heavily used in the passing game. Over the season, he was targeted 57 times, catching 46 of them.

As a team, the Lions scored 45 touchdowns last season, which was 16th best in the league. In the offseason, they traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff. The Lions also let Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones sign with other teams. With this in mind, it's reasonable to project less touchdown opportunities for the Lions. The change to Goff should still mean targets for Swift though. In 2019, Todd Gurley had 49 targets from Goff, showing his willingness to check it down to his running back. With the losses at receiver, Swift also may be asked to move into the slot on occasion. Should that happen, his 1.11 fantasy points per touch should rise even higher in 2021. That mark was the highest of the players I looked at for this exercise.

Projection

160 carries, 804 rush yards, 55 receptions, 253 rec yards, and 9 total touchdowns

JK Dobbins; Baltimore Ravens 

Like Swift, Dobbins was selected in the second round of the NFL draft. Also like Swift, Dobbins had just 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of plays. Unlike Swift though, Dobbins was hardly used in the passing game, seeing just 24 targets. However, Dobbins managed to make the most of his opportunities. Dobbins  averaged 6 yards per touch and evaded 47 tackles. He led the league in percentage of runs over 10 yards, as well as true yards per carry, which factors in the offensive line. Dobbins accounted for 9 total touchdowns last season on 28 red zone opportunities.

Looking at opportunity and production, Swift outperformed Dobbins in the touchdown efficiency department. A case can be made that Swift’s use in the passing game is the reason. However, to illustrate the efficiency Dobbins had running the ball, he averaged just .07 points per touch less than Swift with 1.04 on the season. Yet, it cannot go without saying that Dobbins has a quarterback who also takes away red zone touches. Lamar Jackson ran the ball 159 times last season adding 7 touchdowns. The Ravens also decided to let Mark Ingram leave for Houston, which could mean slightly more carries for Dobbins. However, a lack of targets means he will have to have Derrick Henry type usage, which is unlike the Ravens. That being said, Dobbins should still provide value due to his efficiency.

Projection

155 carries, 965 rush yards, 20 receptions, 130 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns

James Robinson; Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike Swift and Dobbins, Robinson had quite a different path to the NFL. As an undrafted free agent, Robinson forced his way onto the field and ran away with the job. Commanding 85% of the team’s opportunities, he made his presence felt. Out of this list, Robinson is the only player with more than 200 touches. He had 289. Robinson averaged 0.83 points per touch, which is impressive considering most of it came as rushing attempts. He accounted for 10 total touchdowns last season, more than a third of the team total.

With the Jaguars expected to improve in all phases of the game this year, they should see a touchdown increase, as well as increase the number of rush attempts from the 5th fewest in the NFL.  In free agency, the Jaguars added Carlos Hyde as a veteran presence. If Healthy, he should help make Robinson even more efficient. Robinson managed to evade  79 tackles, which was 5th best in the league. The offensive line should improve with another year together to provide more optimism heading into 2021 for Robinson. Given the current situation in Jacksonville, I like Robinson heading into next year.

Projection

255 carries, 1163 rush yards, 50 receptions, 239 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns 

Looking at these numbers and projections, it appears James Robinson is my favorite of the three. I am actually surprised at this myself. With Jamaal Williams joining Swift in the Detroit backfield, Swift could lose some of the passing game work that provides such upside. As an example of the value of receptions, here’s two players. Player 1 had 264 total touches for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns. Player 2 had 152 touches for 862 yards and 7 touchdowns. Player 1 is Kenyon Drake. In general, most would say he underwhelmed last season. Player 2 was Nyheim Hines. In PPR leagues, Hines outscored Drake by 1 point. 193.2-192.2. With this in mind, Dobbins would need 13 to 18 carries with nearly all the goal line work to offer similar upside to Swift and Robinson. With how the Ravens have played since Lamar Jackson became the starter, no single running back has had more than 230 touches in a season (Mark Ingram 2019). Swift will now likely share passing down work with Jamaal Williams, hurting his value. Of course the Jaguars can still add competition for Robinson in the draft, but as things currently lie, I’ll take Robinson followed by Swift then Dobbins.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Contender & Pretender Trade Targets: 

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Contender & Pretender Trade Targets: 

By Matt Kelley

We’re headed into the thick of week 7 this fantasy season, so you have a pretty good idea if you’re trending towards competing for a dynasty title or if you should be planning more for 2021. Here, I’ll look at four players you can target as either a contender, pretender, or possibly both. 

LA Chargers, TE, Hunter Henry:  One of the most difficult positions to lock down in fantasy, generally speaking, is TE. In finding success at the TE position, I look for a few key things: Are they on the field? Are they running routes? Are they connected to a good QB? Is their team utilizing them correctly? 

Hunter Henry is currently on the field for nearly 86% of snaps for the Chargers, ran 148 routes (good for 10th most), averaging nearly seven targets per game, and he’s tied to Justin Herbert who has looked incredible in his limited time taking over at the QB helm. As a nice added bonus, the Chargers are deploying Henry from the slot creating quite the mismatch on almost 29% of Henry’s snaps. Henry has only caught one TD thus far this season, but the arrow is pointing up for Henry in most every category. Henry does need to curtail his drops a bit, but that hasn’t stopped Herbert from targeting him or resulted in him coming off the field. Henry is approaching top 5 territory at the TE position, and you should snag him now before there’s a death grip on him from those that have him rostered already. Henry’s value is at a low enough point that you can target him as both a pretender or contender. 

Baltimore Ravens, RB, J.K. Dobbins: I wrote about Dobbins extensively leading up to the season and how I thought he would usurp Gus Edwards with relative ease and eventually Mark Ingram as well. Well, this taking a bit longer than I expected, and the Ravens are content with dividing up this backfield with all three of these backs. That being said, I lean towards trading Dobbins if you’re a pretender and building towards 2021. As much as we all want to see Dobbins get the bulk of opportunities, it may be later than we all want and if you’re a contender, I’m not sure you can afford to wait unless you can get by with him on your bench. That said, Mark Ingram looks like he’s hit a downturn and maybe a step behind his career pace. Ingram has been on the field 30% of the Ravens snaps, had 36% of the Ravens rush share, and is 32nd in rush yards with 225. He’s had two runs over 15 yards and evaded only 8 tackles. Dobbins has actually been on the field more than Ingram but has had less of the rush opportunities (25.8%). Despite that, Dobbins has three runs over 15 yards, has evaded nine tackles, and is the clearly superior pass catcher. I still believe #DobbinsSZN is a matter of when and not if. If you have the resources as someone shooting for 2021, this may be the best opportunity to trade for Dobbins. Should Ingram be out extended time or reinjure his ankle, the door may well slam shut on the opportunity to trade for J.K. Dobbins at his current value. 

Miami Dolphins, RB, Myles Gaskin: Nope, not Jordan Howard. Nope, not Matt Brieda. Myles Gaskin is the Miami Dolphins running back to roster and the running back to trade for as a contender. Does Gaskin have value past 2020? I’m...not entirely sure. Which is why I’m suggesting him for a win now type team and why you may not have to give up all that much to get him on your roster. Gaskin has been on the field for the Dolphins for 65% of their snaps and had 63% of their carries even after having single digit carries over the first two weeks. Gaskin has seen 29 targets for 27 total catches and 182 receiving yards. Gaskin has a workhorse share of the rushes and targets. The only downside (potentially) is the Dolphins making the shift to rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa this week, and we just don’t know what this offense will look like in terms of Tua running, dumping off passes, and being challenged by defenses. This is definitely a point to consider when trading for Gaskin and possibly creating a bit of value. I still like the potential for Gaskin to provide depth and help nudge a contender to a dynasty title. 

N.Y. Jets, WR, Jamison Crowder: Am I following up with recommending you trade for a Jet right after a Miami Dolphin? Yes, yes I am. It’s 2020, just embrace it. Crowder is an absolute PPR machine though, and much like Robert Woods of the L.A. Rams, he is a constant overlooked value. Even with Adam Gase as the coach, and even with Joe Flacco occasionally throwing him passes, Crowder excels. The Jets have actually used Crowder in the best possible role, the slot. Crowder has seen 73% of his snaps come from the slot this season. Albeit in this offense, his target share is a whopping 31.5% (21.4% in the red zone). This is elite. He has 190 yards after the catch. This is also elite territory.  Crowder probably has the most value not only this season but also going forward from anyone on this list, but he’s worth it. His floor is incredibly safe every week and he finds the endzone, you're golden for the week. If you’re in contention for a dynasty title, go after Crowder. He won’t cost you as much as the Deandre Hopkins or Michael Thomas’ of the world, but he’ll give you a (nearly) bust proof option in your lineup week in and week out. 

AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our next stop is a division is full of intrigue in both real life as well as for fantasy purposes; The AFC North! Before we get into the team breakdowns, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is back! The Steelers are an absolute BUY, targeting these players and reaching to get a piece or two of this group. Last year was a lost season but upside remains as they look to return to being a fantasy friendly offense.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: “Ladder Pick”, low QB1, 1-2% auction, round 13, Big Ben returns from injury with an outstanding offensive core surrounding him. If he is able to stay healthy (like Cam Newton in NE) he could have the largest ROI in fantasy football.

RB James Conner: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 3, I believe the Steelers will return to be an elite offense if Big Ben can stay healthy. Conner can be a major beneficiary with top 10 RB upside! A big riser for me this summer!

RBs Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, and Jaylen Samuels: As of now I’m not drafting these guys unless it is a deep league. All priority FAs!

Snell seems to be the favorite for backup duties, McFarland is the rookie PPR target, and versatile Samuels has pass catching upside as well. Waiting to see how it plays out. Again we want players in offenses with upside.

WR Juju Smith-Schuster: WR1, 12-13% auction, round 3, I believe Juju is a major bounce back candidate and as a versatile WR in an elite offense, he is a player worth reaching for!

WR Diontae Johnson: Low-WR3, ideal WR4, 4% auction, late round 7/ideal round 8, Johnson showed flashes of greatness as rookie with poor QB play, he might be the best value of the skill position players on this team!

WR James Washington and Chase Claypool: Priority FAs, deep league end of bench stashes. These two 2nd round picks have immense upside in this offense, especially if Juju or Diontae were to miss time!

TE Eric Ebron: TE2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, he is one of the many good TE options late in drafts. Maybe the deepest the position has felt in years, I wouldn’t be disappointed if he ended up on a deep league roster. This athletic TD machine could be a wonderful late Best Ball pick

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson! Wow! An incredible and wildly satisfying fantasy performance! He does it all and executed the offense to absolute perfection! He alone makes the Ravens a Big Buy! I’m aggressively targeting players in this elite offense!

QB Lamar Jackson: QB1, 10% auction, round 4, I typically wait on QB but Jackson (as well as Mahomes) is extremely tempting to get early. He’s the GameShark because has the cheat code! (Remember GameShark?! How cool were those?!). Immense rushing and passing upside!

RB Mark Ingram: RB2, 8-9% auction, round 5, Ingram value has plummeted with the addition of JK Dobbins. I say “Good! More for me, please!” This is exciting because there is still plenty of opportunity for both of them to have fantasy success and Ingram is all the cheaper in drafts.

RB JK Dobbins: “Ladder Pick”, RB4 with RB2 upside, 6-7% auction, round 5-6, he was part of an epic RB class, It will be fascinating to see how their careers play out. He shares the backfield with Ingram for now. I’m targeting both in drafts, an easier feat to accomplish in auction

Dobbins like Jonathon Taylor have paths that are eerily similar to that of Ezekiel Elliott. Even with a crowded backfield, the Ravens selected Dobbins in the 2nd round! He checks all the boxes and lands in an elite offense! I am going to be aggressively targeting him in all formats!

WR Marquise Brown: WR3, 6% auction, round 6-7, this Best Ball target flashed as a rookie even while dealing with injuries. He is healthy, has added muscle to his undersized frame. He is a unique talent and a perfect weapon for the modern day NFL.

WRs Boykin and Devin Duvernay are both priority FAs. I would keep a close eye on any of the depth WRs in Baltimore. We want players in elite offenses!

TE Mark Andrews: TE1, 8-9% auction, round 5, nick-named MANDREW, which is awesome, he broke out along with Jackson last year, in glorious fashion. It is easy to forget how much he struggled with injuries last year, as he was essentially “questionable” to play for the majority of the contests last season.

However, he is a clear focal point of the passing game, and now has more target share potential with Hayden Hurst in Atlanta.

Cleveland Browns

A new HC is in town which will hopefully lead to some stability in the organization. It’s been a rocky road to say the least. For fantasy purposes, having big upside at every offense core position The Browns are a BUY!

QB Baker Mayfield: QB2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, this post-hype sleeper is surrounded by great pass-catchers and still has rushing upside. Since QB is so deep, I typically look elsewhere even when waiting on QB, but if he can limit turnovers he could be a real steal.

RB Nick Chubb: RB1, 17-18% auction, late round 1, early round 2, extremely talented in an offense that has scoring upside. Hunt can take away a little bit of his ceiling which is why I prefer Chubb in the 2nd round, but he is too good to pass up when he is available on the board.

RB Kareem Hunt: RB3, 5-6% auction, round 6, pass catching upside makes him an interesting FLEX, I typically like to grab WRs where Hunt’s ADP is but if I start robust WR with elite TE, he can be utilized as a RB2. He becomes an instant RB1 if Chubb were to miss time!

WR Odell Beckham Jr: WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4-5, the dynamic play maker looks to build off of a mostly down first year in Cleveland. He could be a major steal as WR2 on your roster. Beckham’s success does rely a bit of Baker. I hope he can return to his old form!

WR Jarvis Landry: WR3, 7-8% auction, round 6, PPR stud, one of my favorite players creates an excellent duo with his college teammate OBJ, it is a scary combination and should be fruitful if Baker’s play can be elevated from last year. He is one of the safest floor plays in the league! One of my first players I add to my queue!

TE Austin Hooper: TE2, with sneaky TE1 upside, it was a curious signing with Cleveland already having Njoku on their roster but more HC Kevin Stefanski loves to incorporate TEs into the offense.

Not the most “exciting” pick but should have a nice floor with room to grow! Keep an eye on David Njoku as well, Uber-athletic, priority FA, especially if Hooper were to miss time!

Cincinnati Bengals

Young HC Zac Taylor’s rough first year led the Bengals to a new franchise QB! The Bengals have nowhere to go but up as their offensive core falls into the NEUTRAL category. The QB play will determine how much juice is squeezed from the lemon. Hopefully Joe Burrow can make some tasty lemonade.

QB Joe Burrow: QB2, priority FA, Burrow broke college football last year with dominate play week in and week out, while seemingly played better as the competition grew. The Bengals get their new face of the organization. Very good weapons surround him, so I would not hesitate to add him if your starter misses time!

RB Joe Mixon: RB1, 22-23% auction, late round 1, Mixon is a really good player even with mediocre QB play. Burrow is an upgrade and provides new found upside to offensive core, most of which to Mixon. Should potentially see easier looks since defenses will have to respect the QB play even more.

RB Gio Bernard: RB5, 1-2% auction, round 13, Gio is old reliable, he can do it all, but he is behind Mixon, if Mixon were to miss time, Gio becomes FLEX option! One of best late round stashes (and moustaches) for your team!

WR Tyler Boyd: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), ideal WR3, 10% auction, round 6, PPR target, he will be a bit of a safety net for the young QB, I think his value is the least affected of the all the pass catchers! Very safe pick, nice weekly floor!

WR AJ Green: WR3, 8-9% auction, round 7, of AJ Green can do AJ Green things he will be the biggest steal of drafts. When he is healthy all he does is put up top 10 WR seasons! High risk high reward!

WR John Ross and Tee Higgins: Priority FAs, both should be rostered in all leagues if healthy when and if AJ Green were to miss time! Higgins is more of a dynasty buy compared to redraft! John Ross is best utilized as a Best Ball target!