Jared Cook

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

Post-Hype Sleepers: Tight Ends

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Tight Ends

By Alex French

It’s Sunday evening, the weekend is winding down, and that means it's back to the grind in the morning. I’ve been putting this article off all weekend, as this has been the hardest of the series to write. What is the reason you ask? Well, some of the guys that were hyped lived up to it like Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. Others, like OJ Howard and Hunter Henry, have had their situations drastically change.  As a reminder, I consider a post-hype sleeper a player who received large amounts of hype, but failed to meet expectations.

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints 

This is a bit of a weird pick, but hear me out. Cook had 9 touchdowns last year on just 43 receptions. That’s good for an incredible TD rate of 20.9 percent. By no means do I think he will repeat that rate. However, even with regression baked in, I think he’s in line for a top 8 finish at the position. Cook  was learning a new offense last year and he also dealt with an injury early on.  Once Cook returned from his injury, Drew Brees left with one of his own. Towards the end of the season, Brees and Cook seemed to really hit a groove. With a full season to have learned the offense, and the chemistry Cook now has with his quarterback, it's quite easy to see a scenario where Cook finishes with over 700 yards and 8 touchdowns.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

It’s hard to put Hockenson in this category considering he was a rookie last year. Yet, if you remember the narrative last year, it was that Hockenson had too much talent. He was going to be the rookie tight end that finally put up good numbers and change the idea that rookie tight ends just don’t produce. Well, he did…. in week 1. Following his 100+ yard performance, he failed to even top 65 yards the remainder of the season. With Matthew Stafford healthy, I expect Hockenson to put it all together in year two. He’s supremely athletic and in a pass heavy offense. Look for him to prove why he was a top-10 pick in the NFL draft.

Evan Engram, New York Giants 

Injuries have plagued Engram since he entered the league in 2017. He has only played in 19 games the last 2 seasons combined. However, he has produced solid numbers when on the field. Entering his fourth year in the league, I could see him putting it all together. The Giants don’t have a true alpha receiver which also opens the door for Engram to see plenty of opportunity in the offense. It’s also reasonable to expect the Giants to see many negative game scripts this season. This should mean quite a few pass attempts as the Giants play catch up. At the tight end position, opportunity is sometimes all it takes. Add the athleticism Evan Engram brings, and you have the recipe for a reliable weekly starter in your lineup. 

I know these names may not be the most exciting at the position, but tight end saw quite a few breakouts last season. There are also many names that generate excitement in the later rounds, such as Blake Jarwin, Jonnu Smith, and another favorite of mine, Hayden Hurst. With all this in mind, I think 2020 is finally the year the tight end position actually has some depth. Let me know on Twitter who your favorite post-hype sleepers are this year @TheBlindGuyFF.

NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome to 2020 NFL team breakdown!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically...each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this, but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from your's truly. Throughout the team breakdowns, be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with the coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better...always!

Let’s reveal where the offensive cores fit, shall we?

BIG BUY:
Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BUY:

Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Denver Broncos

NEUTRAL:

Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings

FADE:

Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and The Washington Football Team.

We begin our team breakdown with the fantasy friendly NFC South…

Carolina Panthers

Overall this offense is an absolute BUY! The offense begins and ends with Christian McCaffrey, but there is a lot to like in the offensive skill position core.

QB ‪Teddy Bridgewater: high upside QB2, $1 in 14 team auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week. Teddy’s NFL journey has been a wild ride, he now finds himself on a Carolina Panthers team with a new head coach in defensive-minded Matt Rhule and a new offensive coordinator with aggressive and fast-pace play calling Joe Brady; formerly the OC of the 2019 National Champion LSU Tigers. Whoa baby!

‪RB Christian McCaffrey: THE RB1, 1.01, 35% auction budget. He is a cheat code and will remain at top of the draft board until proven otherwise.

WR DJ Moore: a PPR and YAC stud, WR1, 15-17% auction budget, Round 3 target, will be absolutely smashing his name if he falls to Round 4

‪WR Curtis Samuel: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB) upside depth stash, PPR league target, 1-2% auction budget, round 13

WR Robby Anderson: WR5, WR4 (if robust RB), unpredictable big play ability makes him most appealing in Best Ball leagues, 1-2% auction budget, round 14

TE Ian Thomas: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 in deep auction leagues, priority FA regarding starter injury/bye week

Atlanta Falcons

This year the Falcons continue to be a consistent and fantasy friendly offense. They are in my upper echelon of offenses to target for all draft types. The Falcons offensive core fits into my BIG BUY category!

QB Matt Ryan: “Ladder Pick” QB1 has the best WR duo in the league and a new RB and TE target. I expect a lot of high scoring contests out of this team with Matt Ryan being the ultimate beneficiary. 4-6% of auction budget, round 6-7 target, he is QB worth reaching for even when conventional wisdom says to wait on QB.

RB Todd Gurley: High risk/high reward - RB2 is preferable, but would be happy with him as my RB1 if I were to go robust at WR or grab an elite TE in round 2. With a crowded backfield behind him, I would hold any of backups in Brian Hill or Ito Smith as priority FA adds. If Gurley is drafted as your RB1, I would make RB a big priority for rounds 5-9. 14-18% auction budget. Round 4 would be desirable.

WR Julio Jones:  WR1, 20-22% auction budget, round 2. He is a GO is all league formats, although I would be a bit more aggressive in best ball formats. Incredibly solid option, also highly productive and I hope that production shows up a bit more in the TD column.

WR Calvin Ridley: “Ladder Pick” - WR2 with WR1 upside. The perfect compliment to Julio Jones has been a producer each year and now he enters his 3rd season destined to breakout. Give me ALL of the Calvin Ridley shares!! 13-14% auction budget, round 4. You know the GIF of Winnie the Pooh sitting at the table with the pot of honey in front of him, his napkin tied around his neck, utensils in hand, eyes closed, smiling and dancing back and forth. Well, I’m Winnie the Pooh and Calvin Ridley is the honey.

TE Hayden Hurst: This TE1 is in a tier with Evan Engram, he will finally get his chance to shine in this juggernaut offense.

New Orleans Saints

The Sean Payton-Drew Brees brain-trust continues to be an entertaining and fantasy friendly offense. The Saints offensive core will remain a BUY!

QB Drew Brees:  QB1, 4% of auction budget, round 7-8 target, consistently productive surrounded by some of the game best weapons!

RB Alvin Kamara:  RB1, 28-30% of auction budget, round 1, PPR dream, just flat out good at the game

RB Latavius Murray:  RB3, this zero-RB draft strategy target serves as a great compliment to Alvin Kamara, if Kamara misses time Murray enters low RB1/high-RB2 territory. 5-7% of auction budget, round 9-10 target

WR Michael Thomas: The WR1, this PPR machine broke the NFL catches record last season with 144 catches. This is an average of 9 per game. 9 catches PER GAME!! I’m honestly happy if a WR gets around 9 *targets* a game. I see no sign of him slowing down. 28-30% auction budget, round 1

WR Emmanuel Sanders: One of my favorite players is now playing along side of Michael Thomas with Drew Brees throwing to him...you love to see it! WR3, 7-8% auction budget, round 9-10

TE Jared Cook: Low end TE1, 2-3% auction budget, round 9, I think any smart fantasy player would want pieces of the New Orleans offense - he may not seem like a “sexy” pick but what I think is “sexy” is opportunity in an elite offense. Also, do yourself a favor and remind yourself of what he did in the second half of the season last year.

TE Adam Trautman: A dynasty favorite, this extremely athletic rookie will be learning from a big play veteran in Jared Cook and will have the pleasure of playing Drew Brees for what he has left and possibly Jameis Winston in the future. BUY!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn...BIG BUY!!

QB Tom Brady: QB1, 3-4% auction budget, round 10. Brady enters into a smorgasbord of offensive weapons that I argue boasts the 2nd best WR and TE groups in the league and with a decent stable of RBs this team will feast. Brady will be the prime beneficiary of this offense!

RBs Ronald Jones: (RB3, 7-8% auction budget, round 7 if robust WR with elite TE strategy) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB4, 4-5% auction budget, round 10) are the only draftable RBs for 12 team drafts. LeSean McCoy and Dare Ogunbowale should be priority FA if Jones or Vaughn miss time. I want players in this offense so keep a close eye.

WRs Chris Godwin (WR1, 16-18% auction budget, round 2) and Mike Evans (WR1, 14-15% auction budget, round 3) are the most important pieces of this offense, they will help open up the running game as well as help the TE create mismatches. I love them both in all formats, I’d be willing to be aggressive to draft Mike Evans in best ball formats.

TEs Rob Gronkowski (low end TE1, 1-2% auction budget, round 9), OJ Howard (TE2 with upside to be TE1 group if Gronk were to miss time, $1 deep auction league stash, priority FA) and Cameron Brate (very late round target for best ball formats, priority FA in all other formats if Gronk/Howard were to miss time or as a bye week replacement).

I will generally be fading Gronk this year. I think the best and smart play is to target him late or for cheap in an auction draft with the hopes that he produces well enough early on to be used as a sell high candidate. I hope I am wrong on that because he is an awesome and fun player who I fear will be mainly touchdown dependent.

 

 

 

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