James Robinson

Dynasty Dilemma: James Robinson

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Dynasty Dilemma: James Robinson

by Erik Wroblewski

 

As an undrafted free agent, James Robinson has faced long odds in his career. Making the roster as an undrafted free agent in and of itself is a great feat, but to make the roster and find yourself in a starting role does not happen much. James excelled in that starting role as a rookie gaining over a thousand yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry while gaining another 344 yards through the air on 49 receptions and scoring 10 TD’s. He did all this on a bad team that earned the number 1 pick. Those are lofty stats for a fantasy running back, stats usually reserved for a player on a good offense. Seems if you were an NFL general manager, RB would be one position on the roster you didn’t have to worry about. The Jags are one of the league's most poorly run franchises, so drafting a 1st round RB when you already had a good young one is a good example of why bad teams stay bad.  When Jacksonville took Travis Etienne, it became just another obstacle for Robinson to overcome but as it worked out Etienne missed the entire season leaving the backfield to Robinson to again show his skills. 

 

Reasons To Sell

There are multiple reasons to sell and Etienne coming back from injury probably isn’t the biggest reason, it is the Achilles tear. Cam Akers coming back from this injury in the period of time he did was able to show the advancements in the surgery and his hard work and will. Akers' post season also showed reason to be pessimistic about his return as well as Robinson’s. Historically RB’s do not make it back from this injury, although a lot of RB’s with the skill that Robinson displayed in his short period of time have not had to overcome this injury. 

 

The list of RB’s who have torn their Achilles is short and unimpressive. There was 1 exception in Arian Foster, the rest were fantasy irrelevant through the course of their careers. Foster happened to be 29 when his injury occurred which is already an age where RB’s historically are on the downside of their career already. 

 

The list I’m referring to…

LenDale White

Andrew Brown

Mikel Leshoure

Earnest Graham

Kendall Hunter

Beanie Wells

Vic Ballard

Joe McKnight

Arian Foster

Branden Oliver

D’Onta Foreman

Isaiah Crowell

Marlon Mack

 

Each one of the players listed above either never came back to the league or their stats severely declined. Not to say this will be the case with Robinson, but the history of this injury is unfavorable. It usually takes 18 months to see if a player fully regains their form and would that be too late? Will that give Etienne a chance to take control of the backfield? Also, new Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is working against him. During his time in Philly he never gave an RB more than 179 carries and had a committee approach to the position, which likely at best, would happen with a healthy Robinson and Etienne probably looking at a 50/50 split in a bad offense on a bad team.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Why buy Robinson? The price and the fact he should still be the goal line back. Coming off this injury and for all the reasons above, you can probably get Robinson on the cheap in your league. If you are looking for RB depth you could do a lot worse. Robinson has two important factors on his side in dealing with this injury; youth and sustained success over his first year and a half in the league. Compared to the guys listed above, they did not have either one, the other or both in their quest to overcome this injury. Robinson was on his way to having a better season in year two, improving his yards per carry and yards per reception prior to the injury. He will still have a role in what should be an improved offense in year 2 of Trevor Lawrence under the guidance of Pederson. 

 

Verdict

If you are a Robinson owner, you have no other choice but to hold, unless you can get a deal you feel is valuable.  I would recommend selling but there probably won’t be a lot of buyers due to the injury as well as a new incoming coach. Even the buyers that are out there now won’t pay a rate that makes a lot of sense. 

 

The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

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The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

By Alex French

It's finally here! The 2021 NFL season is officially underway. The draft is about a month away. Those not-so-free agents are able to sign with teams, and it's time to dig into our research to decide which players to target, as well as avoid during draft season. Considering the perceived scarcity at running back, I think it’s only appropriate  we discuss a few. With draft season in full swing, I’ll be focused on some rookies from the last draft class. More specifically, I want to focus on D’Andre Swift and  JK Dobbins. Just for good measure, I’m going to include another who has been quite polarizing of late, James Robinson.

D’Andre Swift; Detroit Lions 

Selected with the 3rd overall pick of the second round in the 2020 NFL draft, Swift perhaps didn’t have the most exciting landing spot. However, a case can be made that he made his presence known right away. In his first game, he was on the field for over 40% of the team’s plays. That number isn’t eye-popping, however, he saw immediate usage in the red zone with 2 opportunities. That is uncommon for rookies. Swift had only 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of the Lions offensive plays. Yet, in his limited work, he managed to get 26 red zone opportunities, converting on 10 of them. That’s good for a %38.5 conversion rate. Perhaps equally as important, Swift was heavily used in the passing game. Over the season, he was targeted 57 times, catching 46 of them.

As a team, the Lions scored 45 touchdowns last season, which was 16th best in the league. In the offseason, they traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff. The Lions also let Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones sign with other teams. With this in mind, it's reasonable to project less touchdown opportunities for the Lions. The change to Goff should still mean targets for Swift though. In 2019, Todd Gurley had 49 targets from Goff, showing his willingness to check it down to his running back. With the losses at receiver, Swift also may be asked to move into the slot on occasion. Should that happen, his 1.11 fantasy points per touch should rise even higher in 2021. That mark was the highest of the players I looked at for this exercise.

Projection

160 carries, 804 rush yards, 55 receptions, 253 rec yards, and 9 total touchdowns

JK Dobbins; Baltimore Ravens 

Like Swift, Dobbins was selected in the second round of the NFL draft. Also like Swift, Dobbins had just 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of plays. Unlike Swift though, Dobbins was hardly used in the passing game, seeing just 24 targets. However, Dobbins managed to make the most of his opportunities. Dobbins  averaged 6 yards per touch and evaded 47 tackles. He led the league in percentage of runs over 10 yards, as well as true yards per carry, which factors in the offensive line. Dobbins accounted for 9 total touchdowns last season on 28 red zone opportunities.

Looking at opportunity and production, Swift outperformed Dobbins in the touchdown efficiency department. A case can be made that Swift’s use in the passing game is the reason. However, to illustrate the efficiency Dobbins had running the ball, he averaged just .07 points per touch less than Swift with 1.04 on the season. Yet, it cannot go without saying that Dobbins has a quarterback who also takes away red zone touches. Lamar Jackson ran the ball 159 times last season adding 7 touchdowns. The Ravens also decided to let Mark Ingram leave for Houston, which could mean slightly more carries for Dobbins. However, a lack of targets means he will have to have Derrick Henry type usage, which is unlike the Ravens. That being said, Dobbins should still provide value due to his efficiency.

Projection

155 carries, 965 rush yards, 20 receptions, 130 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns

James Robinson; Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike Swift and Dobbins, Robinson had quite a different path to the NFL. As an undrafted free agent, Robinson forced his way onto the field and ran away with the job. Commanding 85% of the team’s opportunities, he made his presence felt. Out of this list, Robinson is the only player with more than 200 touches. He had 289. Robinson averaged 0.83 points per touch, which is impressive considering most of it came as rushing attempts. He accounted for 10 total touchdowns last season, more than a third of the team total.

With the Jaguars expected to improve in all phases of the game this year, they should see a touchdown increase, as well as increase the number of rush attempts from the 5th fewest in the NFL.  In free agency, the Jaguars added Carlos Hyde as a veteran presence. If Healthy, he should help make Robinson even more efficient. Robinson managed to evade  79 tackles, which was 5th best in the league. The offensive line should improve with another year together to provide more optimism heading into 2021 for Robinson. Given the current situation in Jacksonville, I like Robinson heading into next year.

Projection

255 carries, 1163 rush yards, 50 receptions, 239 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns 

Looking at these numbers and projections, it appears James Robinson is my favorite of the three. I am actually surprised at this myself. With Jamaal Williams joining Swift in the Detroit backfield, Swift could lose some of the passing game work that provides such upside. As an example of the value of receptions, here’s two players. Player 1 had 264 total touches for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns. Player 2 had 152 touches for 862 yards and 7 touchdowns. Player 1 is Kenyon Drake. In general, most would say he underwhelmed last season. Player 2 was Nyheim Hines. In PPR leagues, Hines outscored Drake by 1 point. 193.2-192.2. With this in mind, Dobbins would need 13 to 18 carries with nearly all the goal line work to offer similar upside to Swift and Robinson. With how the Ravens have played since Lamar Jackson became the starter, no single running back has had more than 230 touches in a season (Mark Ingram 2019). Swift will now likely share passing down work with Jamaal Williams, hurting his value. Of course the Jaguars can still add competition for Robinson in the draft, but as things currently lie, I’ll take Robinson followed by Swift then Dobbins.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Thrive Five: Week 5

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Thrive Five: Week 5

By Matt Kelley

Here we are, heading into week 5 after quite a tumultuous week 4 of injuries, blown leads and COVID-19. Nonetheless, we’re here to crush some props over at Thrive Fantasy and hopefully rake in some cash. Here’s my Thrive Five of the week: 

George Kittle v MIA O/U 4.5 receptions: O= 70 pts. , U= 130 pts.

Man oh man...George Kittle. Coming back from injury last week, Kittle gave us a strong reminder why he should be considered TE1 after racking up 15 catches for more than 180 yards and a score. This week the 49ers are at home against the struggling Miami Dolphins. Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Nick Mullens at QB, Kittle is going to be the go to target as well as the player this offense flows through. The Dolphins are giving up just south of 300 yards per game through the air. This pick doesn’t net you a ton of points, but I’ll be smashing the over. 

Baker Mayfield v IND O/U 241.5 pass yards: O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

With the over/under representing even odds here and 100 points at stake, I’m going back to the Baker Mayfield well (after he didn’t throw an INT last week). The Colts have allowed a paltry 159.3 passing yards per game through the first month of the season. Grant you, they haven’t exactly faced murderer’s row in the first month (Minshew, Cousins, Darnold, and Foles). While the Browns are exciting to watch right now, it isn’t because of Mayfield (except for his commercials). Baker has cracked 200 yards passing once this season. Part of that is because Baker has been kinda ‘meh,’ and part of that is because the Browns are currently rushing for more than 200 yards per game. If Baker couldn’t have a great day against the Cowboys secondary, I don’t think he’ll be breaking out here against the Colts. I expect another heavy dose of the Browns run game. Give me that under. 

DK Metcalf v MIN O/U 77.5 rec yards: O= 110 pts. , U= 90 pts. 

Very few players have been more exciting to watch this season than DK Metcalf. A big reason for that is because the Seattle Seahawks are finally letting Russell Wilson sling the ball. Oh...and because DK Metcalf is a beast of a human and really good at football. Metcalf's lowest receiving total in a game this season so far is 92 yards, which came against the Patriots Stephon Gilmore. This week the Seahawks play the Minnesota Vikings at home, who are giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air. Metcalf will likely see Mike Hughes or Holton Hill, and frankly I don’t care which one it is. It’s going to be a long day for this Vikings’ secondary. I like DK to roll and make it five straight games over 90 yards. 

James Robinson @ HOU O/U 96.5 total yards (rush+rec): O= 100 pts , U = 100 pts. 

Another even odds prop here, this time for the Jacksonville Jaguars RB James Robinson who has been an absolute baller for both for actual football and for fantasy this season. Robinson has crossed the century mark in total yards in three of four games to date. Before writing this I knew that the Jags' opponent, the Houston Texans, had been bad against the run this season, but I didn’t realize it’s been 180 yards per game bad. Woof. The Texans are a bit of a wild card right now after firing HC/GM Bill O’Brien this past week, but I don’t think there’s enough Flex Seal in the world to fix the holes in this Texans defense. Somehow the Texans are currently six point favorites, so if the Jags do get down, Robinson has shown his pass catching skills over the weeks as well, racking up 161 yards in four games. I like Robinson to continue his hot start, give me the over. 

Dak Prescott v NYG O/U 25.5 total completions O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

I guess it’s ‘Even Steven’ week here with the ‘Thrive Five’ as the over/under are each worth 100 points on Dallas Cowboys QB throwing more than 25.5 completions. Shockingly, the New York Giants are giving up the 5th fewest total yards and the 6th fewest passing yards in the league. Oh wait… the Giants are currently 29th in pace of play. Basically, the Giants offense is running so slow teams don’t have time to rack up yards. Dak Prescott hasn’t completed less than 25 passes all season. That’s in large part due to  the Cowboys defense (I use defense loosely) not stopping anyone and creating the need for Dak to throw. So the question is, can the Giants do enough on offense to keep Dak throwing? The Cowboys will probably feel they need to score 30 points, regardless of how close the Giants keep it, and Prescott will continue to throw just enough to carry into the over. 

 

Be sure to check out my interview with Scott Pesick of Thrive Fantasy on The Pick Is In Fantasy Football Podcast which you can find on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Stitcher and Google! 

 

Enter our code DYNASTYPROS when you sign-up and receive an instant deposit match up to $50! (min $20 deposit) #PropUp

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.