James Conner

Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

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Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

By Steve Uetz

 

James Conner may be one of the single easiest NFL players to root for. He is a truly inspiring individual who especially stands out due to his extraordinary personal journey fighting a cancer diagnosis through his college years while still being a very productive player in the NFL. James Conner is now the top RB in the fantasy-friendly Arizona Cardinals offense but does exhibit a unique Dynasty Dilemma despite churning out an impressive 2021 campaign.

 

In the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Amid this wave of positivity and stability surging through the Cardinals organization, Conner now stands alone at the top of the RB depth chart as he severely out-performed his initial 1-year “prove it” deal.

In the 2021 season Conner did play in a mostly part-time role but re-emerged as a fantasy football darling. Conner had a tremendous return on investment in single season leagues as he finished as an RB1 on the season, totaling 1,127 yards from scrimmage. Where he struggled in rushing efficiency, he made up for it with TDs and receiving work. He totaled 752 rushing yards on 202 rushing attempts with 15 TDs and caught 37 of 39 targets for 375 receiving yards and 3 TDs. He totaled a sub 50% snap share in 8 of his 15 games played. In the weeks that Chase Edmonds spent on IR (weeks 9-15), Conner averaged 78.5% snap share and averaged nearly 23 fantasy points per game.

Conner originally was slotted in to replace veteran RB Kenyan Drake as he was figured to serve a part-time role in the offense mixing in with Chase Edmonds. Now former teammate, Chase Edmonds hit the free agency market after the 2021 season and signed with the Miami Dolphins on a two-year deal. Conner, who was also set to hit the free agent market after the 2021 season returned to the Cardinals on a three-year deal! Sitting at the top of the depth chart with very little competition behind him (pre-2022 NFL draft), Conner enters the 2022 season as a high end RB2 option.

 

(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with James Conner boils down to two main factors for me. The primary hesitation I have with Conner from the dynasty perspective is his age which could create potential longevity concerns. The secondary hesitation is the reality of the Cardinals roster and lack of depth at the RB position.

Conner will enter the 2022 season at 27 years old, which doesn’t exactly worry me for the short-term and more specifically for this upcoming season. However, the worry comes from what his role in the NFL will look like 2-3 years from now. As I debate action regarding dynasty roster management, my decisions are ultimately made through the lens of a three-year time frame. It is important to weigh the cost-benefit of what is best for your roster over that time. This is especially important if you are rebuilding or are a middling team looking to gain an edge to compete.

Conner’s impressive 2021 season presents a great opportunity to sell high. Outside of the games where he “had the keys to the car” with Edmonds on IR, the swell of TDs made his weeks’, which was phenomenal but difficult to ultimately rely on. Congratulations if you rode the Conner TD wave, it certainly was gnarly.

Right now, a player like Conner is most appealing to a purely contending team. Not just because of his age, but also because of the reality of the Cardinals roster as they currently sit very thin at the running back position behind Conner. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals prioritize the RB position in the 2022 NFL draft (or especially in the 2023 draft). This of course is a big if but depending on which RB they draft and when said RB is drafted, Conner’s three-year window of success (for your dynasty roster) could diminish even sooner than I am already skeptical of. I hope I am wrong because as I stated before he is a guy I will perpetually be rooting for.

 

The potential acquisition of James Conner forces a fantasy GM to be self-aware and question the true quality of their roster. The original question to answer is “How to decipher the decision of prioritizing short-term vs long-term roster optimization?” Answer: James Conner is essentially an optimal short-term buy while being a risky long-term option.

Conner is absolutely a buy for strong contending rosters that are primarily aiming to win in the current season. The cost benefit could likely pay off for that solid contending team where it wouldn’t pay off for a middling team with potential to contend and especially not a rebuilding roster since I struggle to see legitimate long-term value.

Realistically across an average 12-team dynasty league, there may only be 3-4 legitimate strong contending teams which would leave 8-9 teams as middling contenders or rebuilding rosters. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the long-term risk is too great to acquire without the intention of winning it all in 2022.

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

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AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Our next stop is a division is full of intrigue in both real life as well as for fantasy purposes; The AFC North! Before we get into the team breakdowns, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is back! The Steelers are an absolute BUY, targeting these players and reaching to get a piece or two of this group. Last year was a lost season but upside remains as they look to return to being a fantasy friendly offense.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: “Ladder Pick”, low QB1, 1-2% auction, round 13, Big Ben returns from injury with an outstanding offensive core surrounding him. If he is able to stay healthy (like Cam Newton in NE) he could have the largest ROI in fantasy football.

RB James Conner: RB2, 14-15% auction, round 3, I believe the Steelers will return to be an elite offense if Big Ben can stay healthy. Conner can be a major beneficiary with top 10 RB upside! A big riser for me this summer!

RBs Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, and Jaylen Samuels: As of now I’m not drafting these guys unless it is a deep league. All priority FAs!

Snell seems to be the favorite for backup duties, McFarland is the rookie PPR target, and versatile Samuels has pass catching upside as well. Waiting to see how it plays out. Again we want players in offenses with upside.

WR Juju Smith-Schuster: WR1, 12-13% auction, round 3, I believe Juju is a major bounce back candidate and as a versatile WR in an elite offense, he is a player worth reaching for!

WR Diontae Johnson: Low-WR3, ideal WR4, 4% auction, late round 7/ideal round 8, Johnson showed flashes of greatness as rookie with poor QB play, he might be the best value of the skill position players on this team!

WR James Washington and Chase Claypool: Priority FAs, deep league end of bench stashes. These two 2nd round picks have immense upside in this offense, especially if Juju or Diontae were to miss time!

TE Eric Ebron: TE2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, he is one of the many good TE options late in drafts. Maybe the deepest the position has felt in years, I wouldn’t be disappointed if he ended up on a deep league roster. This athletic TD machine could be a wonderful late Best Ball pick

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson! Wow! An incredible and wildly satisfying fantasy performance! He does it all and executed the offense to absolute perfection! He alone makes the Ravens a Big Buy! I’m aggressively targeting players in this elite offense!

QB Lamar Jackson: QB1, 10% auction, round 4, I typically wait on QB but Jackson (as well as Mahomes) is extremely tempting to get early. He’s the GameShark because has the cheat code! (Remember GameShark?! How cool were those?!). Immense rushing and passing upside!

RB Mark Ingram: RB2, 8-9% auction, round 5, Ingram value has plummeted with the addition of JK Dobbins. I say “Good! More for me, please!” This is exciting because there is still plenty of opportunity for both of them to have fantasy success and Ingram is all the cheaper in drafts.

RB JK Dobbins: “Ladder Pick”, RB4 with RB2 upside, 6-7% auction, round 5-6, he was part of an epic RB class, It will be fascinating to see how their careers play out. He shares the backfield with Ingram for now. I’m targeting both in drafts, an easier feat to accomplish in auction

Dobbins like Jonathon Taylor have paths that are eerily similar to that of Ezekiel Elliott. Even with a crowded backfield, the Ravens selected Dobbins in the 2nd round! He checks all the boxes and lands in an elite offense! I am going to be aggressively targeting him in all formats!

WR Marquise Brown: WR3, 6% auction, round 6-7, this Best Ball target flashed as a rookie even while dealing with injuries. He is healthy, has added muscle to his undersized frame. He is a unique talent and a perfect weapon for the modern day NFL.

WRs Boykin and Devin Duvernay are both priority FAs. I would keep a close eye on any of the depth WRs in Baltimore. We want players in elite offenses!

TE Mark Andrews: TE1, 8-9% auction, round 5, nick-named MANDREW, which is awesome, he broke out along with Jackson last year, in glorious fashion. It is easy to forget how much he struggled with injuries last year, as he was essentially “questionable” to play for the majority of the contests last season.

However, he is a clear focal point of the passing game, and now has more target share potential with Hayden Hurst in Atlanta.

Cleveland Browns

A new HC is in town which will hopefully lead to some stability in the organization. It’s been a rocky road to say the least. For fantasy purposes, having big upside at every offense core position The Browns are a BUY!

QB Baker Mayfield: QB2, priority FA, $1 deep auction, this post-hype sleeper is surrounded by great pass-catchers and still has rushing upside. Since QB is so deep, I typically look elsewhere even when waiting on QB, but if he can limit turnovers he could be a real steal.

RB Nick Chubb: RB1, 17-18% auction, late round 1, early round 2, extremely talented in an offense that has scoring upside. Hunt can take away a little bit of his ceiling which is why I prefer Chubb in the 2nd round, but he is too good to pass up when he is available on the board.

RB Kareem Hunt: RB3, 5-6% auction, round 6, pass catching upside makes him an interesting FLEX, I typically like to grab WRs where Hunt’s ADP is but if I start robust WR with elite TE, he can be utilized as a RB2. He becomes an instant RB1 if Chubb were to miss time!

WR Odell Beckham Jr: WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4-5, the dynamic play maker looks to build off of a mostly down first year in Cleveland. He could be a major steal as WR2 on your roster. Beckham’s success does rely a bit of Baker. I hope he can return to his old form!

WR Jarvis Landry: WR3, 7-8% auction, round 6, PPR stud, one of my favorite players creates an excellent duo with his college teammate OBJ, it is a scary combination and should be fruitful if Baker’s play can be elevated from last year. He is one of the safest floor plays in the league! One of my first players I add to my queue!

TE Austin Hooper: TE2, with sneaky TE1 upside, it was a curious signing with Cleveland already having Njoku on their roster but more HC Kevin Stefanski loves to incorporate TEs into the offense.

Not the most “exciting” pick but should have a nice floor with room to grow! Keep an eye on David Njoku as well, Uber-athletic, priority FA, especially if Hooper were to miss time!

Cincinnati Bengals

Young HC Zac Taylor’s rough first year led the Bengals to a new franchise QB! The Bengals have nowhere to go but up as their offensive core falls into the NEUTRAL category. The QB play will determine how much juice is squeezed from the lemon. Hopefully Joe Burrow can make some tasty lemonade.

QB Joe Burrow: QB2, priority FA, Burrow broke college football last year with dominate play week in and week out, while seemingly played better as the competition grew. The Bengals get their new face of the organization. Very good weapons surround him, so I would not hesitate to add him if your starter misses time!

RB Joe Mixon: RB1, 22-23% auction, late round 1, Mixon is a really good player even with mediocre QB play. Burrow is an upgrade and provides new found upside to offensive core, most of which to Mixon. Should potentially see easier looks since defenses will have to respect the QB play even more.

RB Gio Bernard: RB5, 1-2% auction, round 13, Gio is old reliable, he can do it all, but he is behind Mixon, if Mixon were to miss time, Gio becomes FLEX option! One of best late round stashes (and moustaches) for your team!

WR Tyler Boyd: Low-WR2 (robust RB with elite TE), ideal WR3, 10% auction, round 6, PPR target, he will be a bit of a safety net for the young QB, I think his value is the least affected of the all the pass catchers! Very safe pick, nice weekly floor!

WR AJ Green: WR3, 8-9% auction, round 7, of AJ Green can do AJ Green things he will be the biggest steal of drafts. When he is healthy all he does is put up top 10 WR seasons! High risk high reward!

WR John Ross and Tee Higgins: Priority FAs, both should be rostered in all leagues if healthy when and if AJ Green were to miss time! Higgins is more of a dynasty buy compared to redraft! John Ross is best utilized as a Best Ball target!

Post-Hype Sleepers: Running Backs

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Running Backs

By Alex French

Welcome to the next in my post-hype sleepers series! Today, I’ve got some running backs to wet your appetite. Hear me out, as they may not be what you expect. First, let’s define what I mean by post-hype sleeper again. This is a player who received large amounts of hype prior to last season, but failed to reach those expectations. Lets jump right in!

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

It seems like a long time ago. But, at this time last year, Melvin Gordon was the consensus number 5 overall pick. He was coming off a 2018 season where he posted a true yards per carry of 4.8, which was a career high for him.  He led the league in catch rate at the running back position, and managed to score an average of 22.6 fantasy points per game. To put it simply, he dominated. 

Did someone say dominate? 

Speaking of dominating, his college dominator rating of 47.1 is 97th percentile. I believe that player is still there.  In 12 games with the Chargers last year, he had over 900 total yards. Gordon averaged 75.7 yards per game with 3.5 receptions per game. He showed flashes of the workhorse we all saw in 2019. 

This off-season he signed a two-year deal with the Broncos worth $16 million. That sort of financial investment leads me to believe he will serve as the primary back in what we believe to be an improved Broncos offense in 2020. I think Gordon is in line to finish as a top-end RB2 this year. He will also arguably have the best offensive line of his career with the Broncos also adding Graham Glasgow at Guard.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Like Gordon, last year Conner was a consensus first round pick.  If you owned Conner last year, you were severely disappointed.  However, the Steelers offense as a whole was a trainwreck without Big Ben under center. Roethlisberger is back at the helm and ready for week 1, which means this offense should be firing on all cylinders again. 

Conner struggled to stay healthy last season, and with Covid-19 this year, there’s always a risk. Conner has been hard at work to reshape his body this offseason, and now 4 years cancer-free, he should be poised to return to the 2018 form that helped people win fantasy championships. 

The Steelers have always been a team to feature one back, and that trend should continue. Look for Conner to provide potential RB1 upside in a much improved Steelers offense in 2020.

David Johnson, Houston Texans 

This pick may not be the most popular, but there are reasons for optimism here. Last season, Carlos Hyde received 245 carries in the Texans offense. Hyde is now in Seattle. 

Enter David Johnson. 

Johnson was the primary piece in the trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals, and he will be used as such. Many fantasy players may forget that before his injury, Johnson was performing as a top-10 fantasy option at the position. 

Johnson is in line for over 250 touches, there’s over 150 vacated targets from the Hopkins trade, and the offensive line in front of him will be better. All these things are a recipe for fantasy success for David Johnson in 2020. Research also shows a trend over the last few seasons, that more often than not, vacated targets tend to go towards running backs the following season. 

I understand that these names probably don’t give you the warm and tingly feeling, but all three have a great opportunity to return value in both dynasty and redraft formats. Particularly in dynasty formats, their value is trending the wrong direction. This means the opportunity cost to acquire them should be quite low. This screams value to me. In dynasty, it's important to play for 2-3 years at a time. Many players tend to look a little too far out, which can hurt them in the long run. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Mid/Late Round Players that will Finish Top-12

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Players Drafted Outside the Top-12 that will Finish Inside the Top-12

by Bob Miller

 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Before Stafford had to be sidelined for the last eight games in 2019 due to a back injury, he was on fire. He threw for almost 2,500 yards, 19 TDs and only five interceptions. He was on pace to have a career-year, similar to 2011 when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. He is currently being taken outside the top-12 and should finish as a QB1 if healthy, easily making him a fantastic value pick, especially in Superflex leagues.

 

Ryan Tannehill: All Tannehill did last year after taking over in Week 7 was rack up fantasy points. In fact, from Week 7 on, the only QB to outscore Tannehill was Lamar Jackson. So why is he being drafted so low this year? Sure, he probably won’t repeat the same performance as last year, but he should put together another fantastic season with his rushing ability and weapons around him. With an ADP of 130 (#20 QB), he should drastically outperform his current price. At only 31 years old, he could be a nice bargain in dynasty leagues.

 

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben should be considered a back-end QB1 if he's healthy and firing on all cylinders. He is fully expected to be 100% and ready to roll for Week 1 and he's my favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. JuJu Smith-Schuster should also experience a nice rebound season after a 2019 to forget without Roethlisberger slinging him the rock. Roethlisberger, with all his weapons around him, should be a fantastic pickup late in your draft that can payoff big time.

 

Running Back

Kenyan Drake: Drake is in a high-octane offense that’s trending upwards and should put up insane numbers this season. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com states that Drake could get over 350 touches. Wow! There are a lot of great options in the top 10 RBs right now, but you can wait. Drake has legit potential to explode this season and a top-6 finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Cam Akers: There is rumor that the Rams backfield could be a RBBC, but LA wouldn’t have spent a 2nd round pick on Akers if they believed in Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown. We all know what a running back is capable of in this offense after watching Todd Gurley for the last few seasons. Even though the Rams have lost some guys on the O-Line, Akers is primed to be the early down back to start the season and could take over full time very quickly. It will be hard to keep him off the field, making him a double digit touchdown threat. He can definitely finish as a top-12 back.

 

James Conner:  There is no doubt that Conner is a fantasy stud...when he’s on the field. That’s the question. Can he stay healthy? Regardless, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Conner has proven that he can shine behind them. He is a contract year player and extremely motivated to stay in Pittsburgh. If Conner can stay healthy, he will drastically outperform where he's being drafted right now. Take full advantage, as the risk is worth the reward.

 

Todd Gurley: Just like in 2017, Todd Gurley can be a league winner again. Gurley is going to be given all the touches he can handle in this Falcons offense, if he can stay healthy. If he shows that he can handle a significant workload, he'll easily outperform his ADP in 2020. Atlanta has the 3rd easiest schedule this season, which makes Gurley hands down one of my favorite values.

 

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp: Cooper Kupp may end up being one of the biggest steals in your draft this year. He was incredibly productive through the first half of 2019. In fact, from Weeks 1-8, Kupp was the WR2 in all of fantasy football. He finished as the #6 WR in PPR with 94 rec, 1,162 yds, 10 TDs on 134 targets. With Brandin Cooks gone, Kupp could see over 150+ targets this year. As Jared Goff’s security blanket, especially in the Red Zone, it’s very possible that Kupp could finish as a top 3 WR in PPR Leagues this year. With a current ADP of WR15 (35th overall), Kupp is a steal at this price.

 

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: I know there’s a ton of hype around Hollywood this year, but it’s for good reason. He is the current #1 Wide Receiver in Baltimore’s offense. He showed what he was capable as a rookie with a bad foot hauling in 584 yds with 7 touchdowns on 46 receptions. Now imagine what he will do with a year’s experience under his belt, a healed and healthy foot, and a whole offseason working out with Lamar Jackson. He is primed to blow up this season. I have him projected to have 74 rec, 1,089 yds, and 9 TDs. That’s 239 PPR points, which would have been top 7 last season. Currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX, he could be a league winner this year.

 

Jarvis Landry: “Old Reliable” is what I refer to Landry as. Wait.. old? Nope. He’s only 27 years old. The same age as Michael Thomas and younger than DeAndre Hopkins, meaning Jarvis Landry has plenty of good years ahead of him. He may be coming off an injury, but he has never missed a game in his NFL career...Never. He averages 94 catches a year, so why is he being drafted outside the top 30 WRs? I have no idea, but I absolutely love it. He is a wonderful target in the mid-rounds, which gives you an opportunity to stock up on RB or QB (if you’re in a Superflex league). He is as close to a sure thing to have 80+ receptions this year as you can get. Like Hollywood Brown, Landry is currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX. He is a high end WR2 with WR1 upside in a Browns offense that should be improved.

 

Tight End

Blake Jarwin: Jarwin is finally free! Free from playing behind Jason Witten. He's in a great situation this season in a very dynamic and powerful offense. He’s very athletic and can stretch the field extremely well for a TE, which will result in some good chunk plays. He's going to see plenty of work and should be a back-end TE1 this season. Currently being drafted outside the top 20 TEs, Jarwin can pay off big time as a late round pick.

 

 

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is no sleeper by any means, and he is getting more hype as the season gets closer. This is a player with an ADP of the #21 TE a month ago. He has now creeped up into the Top 15. That’s still not bad, because he can still be the biggest surprise at TE this year. Hurst has a very good chance and path to finishing as a Top 5 option at the end of this season. Hurst is a tremendously talented tight end who is finally going to be given a full-time opportunity in Atlanta's dynamic offense. He will be a homerun pick in the later rounds of your draft. If you are in a dynasty league, go trade for him. You may have to pay more than you’d want, but it could still be a great bargain.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @DynastyProBob