Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!

What’s Next for Leonard Fournette?

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What's Next for Leonard Fournette?

By Tommy Harvey

Monday morning, it was reported Jacksonville is releasing former 4th overall pick RB Leonard Fournette.  After already declining his 5th year option and not able to work out a trade, the Jaguars have now decided to clear Fournette's $4 million off the books. It's not very often a RB coming off a season with 1,150+ yards rushing and 76 receptions gets released.  By releasing him, any team is now free to place a waiver claim.  Who are the teams best suited to take a chance on the former Pro Bowler?

Chicago Bears

The Bears drafted RB David Montgomery last season out of Iowa State with hopes he would become the workhorse.  After a somewhat disappointing season, Montgomery was looking to prove his worth in 2020.  However, he suffered a groin injury last week and is expected to miss several weeks.  Chicago could use a proven veteran RB like Leonard Fournette to provide Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky a backfield threat.  Fournette would help solidify an offense that has lacked productivity in recent years.

Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler is a fantasy stud, but has never had more than 132 carries in a season.  There are hopes he can be a 3-down back, but bringing in Leonard Fournette would allow the Chargers to utilize Ekeler in a way he can be most productive.  LA drafted RB Joshua Kelley and brings back RB Justin Jackson, but neither Leonard Fournette.  With the departure of Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles could use a proven RB to replace the new Bronco.

New York Jets

Le'Veon Bell...Frank Gore...Kalen Ballage...YIKES!  Bell seems unmotivated, Gore is 80 years old, and Ballage (who failed his physical and is not a Jet yet) has been below average during his career in Miami.  Will Adam Gase go get Leonard Fournette?  He should!  Pairing him with Sam Darnold may keep the young QB from seeing ghosts.

Washington (Insert Name Here)

Washington is pretty much in the same boat as the Jets.  Derrius Guice was released earlier this summer, leaving a RB room of Adrian Peterson (another 80 year old), Antonio Gibson (rookie RB who was a WR in college), Bryce Love (injured since his Heisman worthy junior season at Stanford), and Peyton Barber (meh...).  With a lack of offensive weapons, Washington should go after Fournette.

New England Patriots

The Patriots seem to be in rebuild mode, but in a very mediocre AFC East, they could still make the playoffs.  You would think QB Cam Newton would love to have a RB with Leonard Fournette's ability in the backfield with him.  Sony Michel is injured and has been unproductive, James White is a 3rd down receiving back, Rex Burkhead has had injury problems in the past, and Damien Harris is unproven.  Harris could open the season as the starter, but Fournette would be a definite upgrade.

Other potential landing spots: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Seattle Seahawks

10 Bold Predictions

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10 BOLD Predictions

by Bob Miller

10. Brandon Cooks will finish as a top-15 WR in PPR.

104 receptions. 150 targets. 1165 yds with 7 touchdowns. That’s what DeAndre Hopkins' numbers were last year. Now he’s gone, leaving all those targets behind. By now everyone knows that you can’t count on Will Fuller to play in more than a handful of games each year, which opens things up for Brandin Cooks. Don’t worry about Randall Cobb. Deshaun Watson doesn’t look at the slot. He looks down field, and that’s where Cooks will be. Watson averaged 36 passes a game last year and ranked 4th in deep ball attempts. With Watson’s ability to extend plays and Cooks’ route running, you can expect a very productive season from a WR going in the 9th round and outside the top 40 WRs.

 

9. Cam Akers will finish as an RB1 this season.

If you think that Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown will be a factor, stop kidding yourself. If the Rams thought that, they wouldn’t have drafted Cam Akers so high. The Rams ran the ball 25 times a game, and that shouldn’t change with them lining up more in the 12 personnel this season. Todd Gurley finished as a top 15 RB last year, and LA was conservative with him. Akers is explosive and has good hands. I predict him to finish with 1,027 yds, 8 TDs with 41 rec, 287 yds, 2 rec TDs. That’s RB1 numbers.

 

8. Austin Hooper will finish outside the top-15 TEs

69. That’s usually a good number, but not in this case. Unfortunately 69 is the total amount of passes thrown to Tight Ends last year in Cleveland. Hooper finished as a top 10 TE last year in Atlanta on 97 targets. He’s not getting those targets in Cleveland folks. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry get the targets. They had 271 between them, and no other pass catcher had even 30 targets. He’s going to be one of those very good NFL players but an average fantasy asset. With a top 10 TE ADP, I’m staying far far away. In fact, if you own him in dynasty I’d strongly recommend cashing out on him while you still can.

 

7. Daniel Jones will finish as a top-7 QB

Jones looked great as a rookie. He put up some strong numbers with a limited cast around him. This year will be different. A healthy Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram with the emergence of newcomer Darius Slayton will provide plenty of weapons for the 2nd year quarterback. Oh, and let’s not forget about that running back for the Giants. What’s his name again? Oh yeah. Saquon Barkley, who is as good of a running back as we’ve seen in years. Don’t listen to the Madden Rankings. Those rankings are an embarrassment. Don’t be afraid of taking a chance on Danny Dimes. The Giants will be involved in a lot of shootouts. It’s going to pay off.

 

6. Kenyan Drake will finish as a top-6 RB

Let’s hope you weren’t playing against Drake in the fantasy playoffs last year. If that’s the case, then you probably lost. Drake was a league winner last year posting 39.50 points in week 15 and 33.40 points in week 16. It took Drake a little while to adjust after being acquired by the Cardinals mid season last year. He had 151 touches in the final 8 games. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com believes that Drake could surpass 350 touches this season. The acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins is going to open things up even more for Drake. He is excellent in the open field. With all of the receiving threats the Cardinals have, he will see a lot of touches in the open field. He is in the perfect situation, and very well could be this year’s Aaron Jones and lead the league in touchdowns. If Drake is your RB2 consider yourself lucky. If you have an opportunity to get him in dynasty, I’d strongly advise it. 

 

5. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will be a WR1 this season

Here’s a popular name as of late. There are quite a lot of people on the Hollywood Brown hype train, and for good reason. I have been high on Hollywood all off-season. Brown played with a screw in his foot last season and caught 7 touchdowns. Things are different now. Hollywood is healthy and motivated. He’s in the best shape of his life after adding 23 pounds of muscle this offseason. He has spent quite a bit of time with Lamar Jackson working on routes and timing. I expect big things from Brown this year as the Ravens’ clear number one wide receiver. With Lamar’s ability to extend plays, you can expect Marquise Brown to break free for a lot of big plays. Brown should exceed 70 rec, 1,000 yds, and 9 TDs. With players like Julian Edelman and Keenan Allen falling out of the top 12 WRs, expect Hollywood to join the WR1 club this season.

 

4. Leonard Fournette finishes as a top-8 RB

Pretty bold. I know, but I’m sticking to it. Jacksonville shopped Fournette this offseason with no takers. That’s good news for you Fournette owners out there. Last season, Fournette had 265 carries for 1152 yds and only 3 TDs. He also added 76 rec for 522 yds. That was good for 6th overall in PPR leagues. Just like last season, he is going to see a lot of touches. Expect similar carries and yardage with positive TD progression. He won’t have as many receptions due to the addition of Chris Thompson, but with Thompson’s injury history I’d still expect 50+ receptions for Fournette. He is an RB1 that you can get in the 4th or 5th round. Draft Fournette with little concern. 

 

3. Mike Evans will not finish as a top-24 WR.

This could be the boldest prediction of them all. The truth is that the addition of Tom Brady is bad news for Mike Evans owners out there. Brady just doesn’t throw the ball to outside WRs. The last outside WR to have any fantasy relevance was Josh Gordon a few years ago. Before that it was Randy Moss way back in 2007. Brady just doesn’t go that direction. In fact, no outside WR saw more than 54 targets last season in New England. Brady only works the middle of the field due to his loss of arm strength. None of this is good for Evans. I predict 56 rec, 928 yds, and 5 TDs. Finishing outside the top 24 WRs.

 

2. Cooper Kupp finishes as a top-3 WR in PPR. 

Kupp finished as a top 6 WR in PPR last year, so is this considered bold to say he finishes top 3? I’d say yes, because finishing top 3 puts you into elite status. Kupp had 94 catches on 134 targets last season with 1162 yds and 10 touchdowns. With Brandin Cooks gone I fully expect Kupp to see over 150 targets. As Jared Goff’s top red zone target, Kupp should eclipse double digit touchdowns again. The Rams should use more two tight end formations, but that won’t affect Kupp at all. He is Goff’s favorite target and will be peppered with targets again. I expect Kupp to have over 150 targets resulting in 111 rec, 1257 yds, and 13 touchdowns. With a 4th round ADP, he is an absolute steal similar to Chris Godwin last season.

 

1. Chris Godwin finishes as the overall #1 WR in PPR.

Tom Brady in Tampa is bad news for Mike Evans owners but it’s fantastic news for Godwin owners. We all know that Brady loves his slot receivers. Julian Edelman has flourished in Tom Brady’s offense for years. Edelman had 100 rec on 153 targets last season with 1117 yds and 6 touchdowns in New England. Last season in Tampa Godwin had 86 rec on 119 targets with 1333 yds and 9 touchdowns. That was good enough to finish #2 in PPR leagues. With Godwin expected to see 150+ targets this season I have him finishing as the #1 overall WR with 125 rec, 1475 yds, and 11 touchdowns. He is currently going in the 2nd round in most drafts. Take advantage.

*All predictions are based on PPR scoring.

You can follow me on twitter @DynastyProBob

ADP Early Values: AFC South

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ADP Early Values: AFC South

by Matt Kelley

We are now in July and folks are starting to turn on their spidey senses for fantasy football. If you’re reading this, those senses have probably already been on. We’ve talked NFC South value picks for where we are in the calendar year; let's shift our focus to the AFC South to talk about who you can snag at a value. As always, this article assumes a 12-team league and PPR scoring.

 

Houston Texans: Brandin Cooks

Well, the Texans certainly made some off-season noise, and it probably wasn’t what Texans fans were hoping for, when they shipped perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Deandre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson (there were some picks too, but...Deandre freaking Hopkins). That left the Texans with a pretty big hole at the wide receiver position. Brandin Cooks enters a WR corps that features Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb.

Cooks has four seasons in which he has compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards. Fuller, Stills, and Cobb have combined for one (Cobb, 2014). There are various reasons why that hasn’t occurred for these guys, but nonetheless Cooks comes into a situation with all of Hopkins’ vacated targets, Deshaun Watson - a quarterback in his prime, and by far the most accomplished WR. The Texans mark Cooks’ fourth team since entering the league in 2014.

His current ADP sits at WR 35, overall pick 73, in the top half of the sixth round. Teammate Will Fuller is going about ten picks before Cooks. Fuller has an electric connection with Watson when on the field but hasn’t started more than 11 games in the last three seasons, largely due to hamstring injuries. Cooks isn’t without risk as he has five documented concussions. The NFL has put more emphasis on concussions over the last several seasons, so it is worrisome that Cooks could be a hit away from leaving the field for an extended time.

By all accounts, Cooks has noted his health is fine, and he seems to be ready to forge on. If he can stay on the field, he’ll likely be an absolute steal at this point in a draft as there aren’t too many guys going this late with a proven 1,000 yard upside.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Marlon Mack

I know...and Jonathan Taylor, right? I know. Marlon Mack is currently going as RB 42, overall pick 113, in the top half of round 9. What I’ve taken away from the Colts coaching staff so far this offseason is that they believe this will be a committee situation in the backfield.

It’s no secret that Indy has a great offensive line, which is welcoming news to any RB and most likely more so to new incoming QB, Philip Rivers. With the offseason shortened, the Colts could turn towards the running game as a whole a bit more often while Rivers starts to settle in and develop chemistry. That said, Taylor will need to do the same to some degree.

I fully expect Mack to garner at least 60% of the touches through the first half of the year. Mack will certainly concede the passing down work to Taylor or Nyheim Hines. However, Mack is going about 70 picks after Taylor. With Mack having the early work (and likely being the starter for a large portion of the season), he could easily surpass RB42 value. In 26 games over the last two seasons, Mack has put up more than 1,900 yards rushing.

This isn’t a Frank Gore/Devin Singletary scenario. Plus in the last two seasons he’shad eight and nine touchdowns, respectively. I think Mack is still the go-to back at the goal line. He can be seen as a RB2 in the early portion of the season and also sustain weekly flex appeal throughout.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew II

I mustache you...do you like rushing quarterbacks? I know I do. Gardner Minshew had 281 yards rushing in 12 games last season - that’s about 21 yards a game. To some it might not sound like a ton, but in four point passing touchdown leagues, that comes out to an extra eight touchdowns over the course of a season...or it erases his fumbles from last season...however you’d like to look at it.

Minshew took over for Nick Foles last season, who went down pretty much out of the gate. It was a little back and forth with Foles and Minshew once Foles was back, but the Jags liked what they saw in Gardner (he’s also getting paid considerably less) and sent Foles to Chicago to compete with Mitch Trubisky. It was anticipated that the Jags would sign a higher profile backup or perhaps someone to compete with Minshew, but they really haven’t done that. Minshew goes into the season as the starter with no competition for his spot, a hopefully motivated Leonard Fournette, and a pretty good surrounding cast.

In fantasy drafts, he’s almost undrafted. He’s currently slotted in as QB 23, pick 223 overall - basically undrafted unless you have very deep rosters. If things don’t work out for Minshew, you really haven’t lost much in redraft leagues. Obviously in dynasty, you’d likely have an option ahead of Minshew or as your QB2 in SuperFlex leagues. The first two games for the Jags are tougher with the Colts and then on the road in Tennessee. After that though, the Jags get the Bengals, Texans, and Lions - all beatable defenses. If Minshew can limit his fumbles and get into the endzone on the ground a couple of times, he could be a great play in plus matchups and easily come in ahead of QB23.

 

Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith

I’ve already planted my flag and told you why you should draft Ryan Tannehill (you can find that from my earlier article on why he’s the real deal), so now I’ll let you know one of biggest reasons why he’ll be successful: his TE, Jonnu Smith. Smith is currently being drafted as TE 16, pick 154, the back of round 12. Now, if you’re drafting with me, Jonnu isn’t making it to the back half of round 12. Smith is option number two in the passing game behind A.J. Brown in this offense. The Titans obviously had a tale of two seasons last year. One with Marcus Mariota, and the other with the aforementioned Tannehill. From week eight forward, Smith saw at least four targets in six games. Not a ton of volume I’ll give you, but the Titans leaned on the monster that was Derrick Henry down the stretch...and who can blame them?

While the Titans are likely to run Henry for everything he has left in him this year, Tannehill proved to be efficient in this system, and both he and Smith will have a full off-season knowing they’re locked into starting roles. I’m not telling you that Smith is the next Mark Andrews or George Kittle, but I am saying he’s in an offense that is efficient (as he was at 12.5 yards a grab last season), and will have plenty of scoring opportunities. I think Smith could provide weekly upside to finish within the top six at his position and within the top 10 TE’s for the season.

You can follow me @ThatMattKelley