Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC South Predictions

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AFC South Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

Now that the schedule for the 2022 NFL season is out, I thought it would be fun to predict how these teams would be for this upcoming season.  These predictions are based on previous results, byes and straight up gut feelings.  Although some results are not surprising, I was shocked at some of these predictions.

 

Houston Texans

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 3-13-1

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Texans have made improvements to be sure, especially on defense, but they still have work to do.  The offensive weapons aren’t completely lacking, but the explosion, particularly on the ground, is still missing.  Davis Mills still needs time to develop and until he is protected more, it’s going to be a while.  As much as I love Brandin Cooks, he can’t do everything for the Texans anymore.

 

Situation to watch

Like I mentioned before, I really need to see some explosion in the running game.  Highly anticipated draftee, Dameon Pierce will be one to watch and we’ll have to see if Marlon Mack still has gas left in the tank.  The Texans haven’t instilled fear into the opposition at running back for a while now and this needs to be happen soon.

 

Conclusion

I truly believed in my heart that the Texans were due for an improvement, albeit a slight one in 2022.  Upon looking at the schedule, I guess that isn’t the case.  I only see them winning one game in their division, making the mountain all the more higher to climb.  A prediction of basement dwelling is upon us.

 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Record in 2021: 9-8-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 12-5-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

It’s obvious that the biggest weapon is phenom Jonathan Taylor, but we can’t forget that this team is stacked from top to bottom.  Utilizing an underrated defense, and sneaky good receivers, they’ll improve greatly from 2022.  The only worry is that their fifth starting quarterback in as many years may not get up to speed right away, even though it is Matt Ryan.  Just remember the 37 year old isn’t the same guy who played in Super Bowl LI.

 

Situation to watch

Although many people have their focus on Matt Ryan, I am actually more excited to see how Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue do in Indianapolis.  They are two of the quieter acquisitions this offseason for players of their caliber.  I am also anxious to see what happens with Xavier Rhodes.  He may not be the same caliber as he was years ago in Minnesota, but he can’t still help if he stays.

 

Conclusion

It’s probably not shocking for most to see such an assessment.  While the Colts started strong in 2021, which should be repeated, I don’t see the rapid decline that happened at the end of last season.  There was a lot of hate coming Carson Wentz’s way, but now the Colts have no excuse.  Indianapolis is poised to lead the division in 2022.

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record in 2021: 3-14-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The defense for the Jaguars was appalling last season.  Management went and grabbed two studs in the draft to address this.  Shad Khan also opened the vault this offseason, signing many offensive pieces to help Lawrence.  Let’s not forget that Jacksonville will get a healthy Travis Etienne moving forward.  I do worry about the newest signings not being game breakers.  Depth is great, but monster starters are also needed.

 

Situation to watch

Above anything else, I'm sure I’m not alone in my curiosity toward Doug Pederson’s second stint at coaching.  With Urban Meyers setting a garbage fire last season, it will be interesting to see what the former Super Bowl winning coach does to address the situation in Jacksonville.  I always thought Pederson was unjustly let go, so we’ll see if he proves me right.

 

Conclusion

I am possibly the most bullish non Jaguars fan in the world with my prediction for 2022.  The four road wins I am seeing them accomplish next season certainly helps more than anything for Trevor Lawrence and company.  And although I said it before, A healthy Etienne should make a world of difference for the Jags in 2022.

 

 

Tennessee Titans

Record in 2021: 12-5-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Even at 28 years old, Derrick Henry continues to defy Father Time.  His impact as a true smasher can’t be understated and there is a threat at all times that he is on the field.  Boasting fantastic health before last season, there is a slight worry his body won’t be as resilient moving forward.  The team is going to have to adjust for the eventual transition that needs to take place.

 

Situation to watch

.The chalky answer is the one I’m going with here. WIth AJ Brown now playing for the Eagles, the Titans now focus on other faces.  Although the entire receiver room isn’t new, Robert Woods and Treylon Burks will be very interesting to watch.  Will Robert Woods be the same man after the injury?  And will Treylon Burks be able to fill Brown’s shoes moving forward?  Only time will tell and I’m excited to see the results.

 

Conclusion

It’s not that the Titans are worse than they were in 2021, it’s more that other teams have gotten better.  I see a few teams that they would have beaten in 2021 rising about them in 2022.  The departure of AJ Brown should also rock the boat a bit when it comes to their success.  That being said, I don’t see the Titans being down for long.

Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

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Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

By Tim Lazenby

 

In fantasy football, tough choices are part of the job of an everyday manager.  Oftentimes, we struggle with whom to draft, trade or even drop completely.  This is magnified when two players are so close in value.  Choosing between two players like that can ravage the brain and perhaps make or break your season.  In dynasty, it’s even worse than standard because choosing the wrong guy means you are stuck with the mistake for years and potentially losing out on the talent of the better man to win you multiple championships.

Today, let’s dive into a discussion about two young running backs who missed the chance to play for your squad last season.  In a head to head matchup for dynasty glory, only one can survive.  Will it be Los Angeles running back, Cam Akers or Jacksonville Jaguars running back, Travis Etienne?  As they both missed time and Etienne hasn’t had the chance to show what he can do at the professional level, we’re going to look at the college numbers.

Rushing and Receiving Numbers Comparison

Cam Akers Rushing and Receiving

Year G Att Yrds Avg TDs FumL Rec Yrds Avg TDs
2017 13 194 1025 5.3 7 1 16 116 7.3 1
2018 12 161 706 4.4 6 3 23 145 6.3 2
2019 11 231 1144 5.0 14 3 30 225 75 4

Travis Etienne Rushing and Receiving

Year G Att Yrds Avg TDs FumL Rec Yrds Avg TDs
2017 13 107 766 7.2 13 1 5 57 11.4 0
2018 15 204 1658 8.1 24 1 12 78 6.5 2
2019 15 207 1614 7.8 19 2 37 432 11.7 4
2020 12 168 914 5.4 14 4 48 588 12.3 2

Now, we have to take these numbers with a grain of salt.  The statistics in college will not necessarily transition at the professional level, but they also can’t be ignored completely.  It’s important to note that Etienne had one extra year at the college level, so that could be an advantage or disadvantage according to how you view that.

We also have to take into account the programs they played for.  I think it’s obvious that Etienne has the greater numbers by some margin, but he also played for a much better team.  Even without Trevor Lawrence, Etienne still enjoyed success splitting the backfield in his rookie season, going 10-3.  But once Trevor Lawrence came to Clemson, in the three seasons they played together, their record was 39-3.  This level of success certainly helped Etienne’s game.

Cam Akers, on the other hand, was not so fortunate in the school that he played for.  His rookie season was spent with a rookie quarterback and over the three years at Florida State, their record was 18-20.  This meant that Akers would have a much harder time establishing the run or even getting optimal play time on offense.  While we can’t lean on this logic completely when comparing the two, it is still important to look at.

Now that college is out of the way, it’s important to look at the teams they will play for in the NFL.  While Akers is going to someone he is familiar with in Sean McVay, Etienne is making use of Doug Pedeson in his second swing at NFL coaching.  It’s important to see how these two coaches have used their running backs at the professional level.  After all, both Pederson and McVay have coached five seasons in the NFL and both have only coached for one team.  Let’s discuss what that looked like.

Sean McVay’s NFL running back history

McVay came into the NFL extremely blessed with Todd Gurley at his disposal.  In his first season especially, Sean McVay used every ounce that Gurley could give.  His 279 rush attempts were better than the next closest running back at 63; the definition of a workhorse back.  He wasn’t done in the receiving game either, with Gurley leading the team’s running back in targets at 87 and the closest competition had 11.  In fact, Gurley was second on the entire team in targets.

The next two seasons with Gurley leading the way were more of the same, but as time progressed the usage, while still dominant, went down.  You have to question if Sean McVay is leery of using his star running back so heavily moving forward.  The next two seasons were led by none other than Cam Akers and Sony Michel.  It seems likely that Akers would have led last season if not for the injury.  But, unlike Gurley, the usage was not nearly as dominant.  McVay’s lead back almost split the rush attempts and the targets were not even first on the team in the running back room.  Can we expect more of the same moving forward?  Is Cam Akers a workhorse back or a 1A from now on?

Doug Pederson’s NFL running back history

Unlike McVay, Pederson has never shown faith in a typical workhorse back.  Although there is always a starting running back with him, he tends to use a split backfield.  It’s actually amazing that over his NFL tenure, he’s only had one running back as the starter in more than one season in Miles Sanders.  But, when your best option is Ryan Matthews, LaGarrett Blount and Josh Adams, you make do with what you have; no disrespect intended.

Now, can we blame Doug Pederson’s running back choices on his coaching alone or is it partial to the talent available?  Truthfully, moving forward, it will be interesting to see what he does in his fresh start with Jacksonville.  Unlike McVay also, even with a “starter” the rushing share was not great; and with the targets, it’s even worse.  It seemed as though he really liked the idea of a smasher and a receiving threat not being one and the same.

Conclusion

Lastly, we have to talk about the opportunity for each running back on the team for whom they are employed.  I don’t see much in the way of competition for Cam Akers, and now that James Robinson is on the shelf, Travis Etienne’s path to dominance is all but assured.  The teams they play for are also vastly different.  The Rams just won a Super Bowl and have no signs of giving up their championship moving forward.  The Jaguars, on the other hand, finished dead last yet again.  Will McVay ease Cam Akers because the team doesn’t need him as badly?  Will Pederson finally make use of a workhorse back because of the state of his team?

When considering the talent, it is too close to call.  With all the data and arguments, it comes down to the overall team value.  With Akers as a second round pick and the plethora of talent around him, the likelihood of usage is not as high as Etienne.  The Jaguars invested a first round pick in Etienne, making it harder not to showcase him.  Add to that the connection between him and Trevor Lawrence, the choice is easier.  While it has been documented that Trevor Lawrence wasn’t instrumental in bringing Travis Etienne to the Jaguars, now that he’s there I see the cornerstone quarterback wanting to make use of his college teammate as much as possible.

If you are drafting or trading for either, both are good choices.  But in the deathmatch, there is only one winner:

Travis Etienne

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

AFC South Best Values

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AFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Now that we’re knee deep into the off season, many of us are looking for any taste of fantasy football relevance whatsoever.  A wise dynasty manager, however, needs more than just a taste to satisfy their football hunger pains.  We, as managers, should always be looking to improve our ever evolving fantasy franchises.  Whether you are trying to get out of the basement, finally be a playoff contender or even repeat as champion, the common thread is that a winning manager doesn’t sit on his riches.  And in this crucial time before the NFL Entry Draft, you should be looking at value players to add to your team.  Today, let’s dive into the best values for each team in the AFC South.

 

Houston Texans: Quarterback – Davis Mills

What a whirlwind it’s been for the Houston Texans.  The drama of Deshaun Watson seemed to have overtaken every aspect of the team’s story, but now that Watson has moved on with the Cleveland Browns, we can finally think about anything else in Houston.  The situation is quite dire on the outside, but if we dig a little deeper, there are diamonds covered in coal dust.  There weren’t many players last season as unrecognized for their efforts as Davis Mills.  Even with all the drama, haters, and lack of weapons, Davis Mills quietly put together a nice rookie season.

It must have been crazy for Mills.  Here you are, drafted to a team with seemingly no chance to play, and suddenly, you are thrust into the limelight with fantasy and real life fans alike demanding greatness.  Anyone who says the Houston Texans skilled players are near the bottom of the league aren’t wrong, but even with them, Davis Mills actually performed better than most think.  There are obvious differences, but under a more stringent microscope, Mills compares closer to fellow rookie, Mac Jones.  You also have to discount Mills’ first six games where he got booed by his own fans for not being named Deshaun Watson.  As the season grew, Mills did more with so little than most other quarterbacks.  Moving forward, he’s not a top tier QB1, but he’s surely got a shot at being a decent, dependable QB2.  The price is right for picking.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Wide Receiver – Parris Campbell

There was a time when the name Parris Campbell brought nothing but excitement.  In 2019, the Indianapolis Colts took Campbell as the seventh wide receiver off the board and for many, he was a total steal.  In his senior year, he absolutely exploded from his norm and this was what many thought was just things to come.  At the NFL level, however, he’s yet to show anything close to those “true colors”.  He’s also been injured each and every year.  Most critics have already written him off, but I think there’s a world in which Parris Campbell still holds value.

Admittedly, the exodus of Carson Wentz was somewhat shocking to me.  I knew that there was a chance, but with what the Colts invested to get him, I was sure it was too soon to cut him loose.  Once I saw the Matt Ryan move, it all made sense.  And, this is the same reason why moving for Parris Campbell makes sense.  Matt Ryan ain’t no spring chicken, as they say, but he’s far from done.  Now in a strong system, with tons of support, we’ll see something closer to the Matt Ryan of old.  While everyone feigns for Michael Pittman like they always should have, everyone will forget about the forgettable Parris Campbell.  After Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan will turn to someone and I believe it will be Campbell; who’s essentially free in most leagues.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Tight End – Evan Engram

I have to confess something.  I’ve been an Evan Engram truther since I rostered him in his historic rookie season.  He was nothing short of amazing and when I say, “historic”, I’m not exaggerating.  In his rookie season, not only did he score six times, which is incredible as a rookie tight end, but he also had the 7th most receiving yards of all time.  And while I still love to watch him, I had to come to the realization that his rookie season was a fluke and he’ll always be injured or underutilized or both.  That was, until he came to Jacksonville.

While I still have faith in Daniel Jones, I have even more faith in Trevor Lawrence.  The Clemson product is elite, despite what people are saying because of his rookie season.  Jacksonville is doing what they can to build around him and Evan Engram will suit him nicely.  The receiving core isn’t among the league’s best and Etienne hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, so Lawrence will need a good safety valve to rely on.  Many managers will be coveting Dan Arnold, so there will be many opportunities to trade for Engram for next to nothing.  There’s a chance that Engram’s elite days are over, but I’m willing to try one last time in this better situation and price.

Tennessee Titans: Wide Receiver – Robert Woods

The Tennessee Titans featured one of the best receiving corps in football last season.  AJ Brown is a top three dynasty wideout for many and Julio Jones is absolutely legendary.  The depth is also fantastic with so many young options to choose from.  But, it’s almost criminal how that team couldn’t make Julio Jones shine in his only season away from the Atlanta Falcons.  I know there were injuries, but it was just insane how strongly the regression took place.  Now that he’s gone, the Titans turn to former Rams stud, Robert Woods.

While Robert Woods is no Julio Jones in his prime, he is a fantastic number two under AJ Brown.  He’s a perfect example of how to succeed in a shared receiver offense as he did it with Cooper Kupp for many years.  And while he’s not young, at 29, Woods still has lots of time to prove he’s still got it after last year’s injury.  Derrick Henry can’t be the entire offense anymore and this will force the ball to others, like Robert Woods.  We also can’t forget that Robert Woods looked so good catching balls from the likes of Jared Goff.  No disrespect to Goff, but Tannehill has to be considered an upgrade by many.  Acquire him at a WR4 cost and watch him blossom as a low end WR2 with upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

By Steve Uetz

 

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Welcome to Christian Kirk’s Dynasty Dilemma

Christian Kirk made a splash in free agency as he was signed to the Jacksonville Jaguars; the first of many eyebrow raising signings made by the Jaguars new General Manager Trent Baalke. Kirk was gifted with a four-year $72 million contract, with $37 million guaranteed. Kirk at 25 years old, is entering his 5th season after spending the first leg of his career with the Arizona Cardinals in a mostly ancillary role.

As a college prospect he profiled to be an NFL star but failed to live up to the expectations that his college career and 2nd round draft capitol suggested. The Cardinals mightily struggled in Kirk’s rookie season under short-tenured head coach Steve Wilks and QB bust Josh Rosen. His ability remained untapped as he never led the Cardinals in receptions, always playing in a supporting role to elite veteran teammates like Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins. It wasn’t until the 2021 season where his potential was finally consistently on display as the season came to its conclusion.

Christian Kirk’s dynasty dilemma is centered around the potential offensive role in his new environment. He was paid like a superstar as he is currently earning top-10 WR money, but for fantasy what should concern us the most is opportunities through touches/targets, and the quality of such opportunities. Big money does not always equal big opportunity; see Kenny Golladay from 2021. Will Trevor Lawrence and new head coach Doug Pederson bring out the best in Kirk? Or will Kirk continue to be the bridesmaid and never the bride.

 

 

National disgrace Urban Meyer was unceremoniously fired in the middle of the 2021 season, wasting Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year development. The Jaguars are at the start of a new and improved era already as they recently hired Super Bowl winning Head Coach Doug Pederson; a coach who I believe was the perfect hire to jumpstart the development of the young franchise QB.

Among the obvious offensive struggles in 2021 seasons, the Jaguars finished 12th in pass attempts. Being in a top half passing offense across the league is a positive feature for any pass-catching weapon such as Christian Kirk. The Jaguars will most likely once again be a defensively struggling team in 2022, giving the potential of inflated pass attempts and opportunities to Kirk and fellow pass-catchers.

With the departure of D.J. Chark, Kirk is expected to occupy at least the WR2 role for the projected pass-heavy offense. The quality of those opportunities for the pass-catchers are trending up as Doug Pederson has been mostly successful in getting the most of his quarterbacks throughout his coaching career. Bottomline, opportunity and quality of opportunities are on the rise.

 

 

 

With all the recent positive momentum channeling through the Jaguars organization, Kirk is holding unique cautious optimism for seasons to come. Considering the hopefulness of an improved Jaguars offense and how strongly Kirk ended the 2021 season, this presents an advantageous moment to sell.

Kirk finished his 2021 season with career bests in receptions (77), receiving yards (982), yards per target (9.53), and WR fantasy ranking (28th Standard and 26th PPR). Kirk took advantage of his opportunity down the stretch as veteran WR stud DeAndre Hopkins missed 7 total games, including the final four weeks when Kirk had his best four-game stretch. In the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17) Kirk was a viable flex play as he had three consecutive games with 9 or more targets. Despite the success, I think the biggest factor in this triumph was DeAndre Hopkins’ absence.

The 2021 season was a career first that Kirk finished as a WR3 and played a full season. Over his first three seasons his final WR rank was as a WR5 in 2018 (STD 57, PPR 58), WR4 in 2019 (STD 45, PPR 38), and WR5 in 2020 (STD 51, PPR 52) while never playing a full season; he averaged missing 3 games per season over that stretch.

 

Verdict

Ultimately, the solution of how to handle the dynasty dilemma of Christian Kirk would be to either sell or hold, with a preference to sell.

I do think holding is reasonable for all roster types since there is enough optimism to remain patient in anticipation of how the Doug Pederson era kicks off. Kirk, at 25 years old is in his prime and holds Flex appeal but would be best implemented as an injury or bye week replacement which is universally needed.

Rebuilding Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a rebuilding team, I would be looking to sell with the allure of the unknowns of an Urban Meyer-less Jaguars offense. I would suggest offering Kirk to a WR needy contending team for future draft capitol.

Contending Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a contending team, I would be primarily looking to sell to upgrade at the WR position. In an attempt to flip Kirk, I would suggest offering Christian Kirk with a 2nd round rookie pick for a WR like Chase Claypool or Allen Robinson with a 3rd round rookie pick.

My assessment of Kirk is that he holds WR4 value, has a WR3 ceiling, and with only an outlier’s narrow path could he leapfrog into WR2 territory. Overall, I consider Kirk to be an expendable asset among the excess of viable WRs options who hold and have demonstrated higher upside across the fantasy football landscape. Kirk remains the bridesmaid.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

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The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

By Alex French

It's finally here! The 2021 NFL season is officially underway. The draft is about a month away. Those not-so-free agents are able to sign with teams, and it's time to dig into our research to decide which players to target, as well as avoid during draft season. Considering the perceived scarcity at running back, I think it’s only appropriate  we discuss a few. With draft season in full swing, I’ll be focused on some rookies from the last draft class. More specifically, I want to focus on D’Andre Swift and  JK Dobbins. Just for good measure, I’m going to include another who has been quite polarizing of late, James Robinson.

D’Andre Swift; Detroit Lions 

Selected with the 3rd overall pick of the second round in the 2020 NFL draft, Swift perhaps didn’t have the most exciting landing spot. However, a case can be made that he made his presence known right away. In his first game, he was on the field for over 40% of the team’s plays. That number isn’t eye-popping, however, he saw immediate usage in the red zone with 2 opportunities. That is uncommon for rookies. Swift had only 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of the Lions offensive plays. Yet, in his limited work, he managed to get 26 red zone opportunities, converting on 10 of them. That’s good for a %38.5 conversion rate. Perhaps equally as important, Swift was heavily used in the passing game. Over the season, he was targeted 57 times, catching 46 of them.

As a team, the Lions scored 45 touchdowns last season, which was 16th best in the league. In the offseason, they traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff. The Lions also let Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones sign with other teams. With this in mind, it's reasonable to project less touchdown opportunities for the Lions. The change to Goff should still mean targets for Swift though. In 2019, Todd Gurley had 49 targets from Goff, showing his willingness to check it down to his running back. With the losses at receiver, Swift also may be asked to move into the slot on occasion. Should that happen, his 1.11 fantasy points per touch should rise even higher in 2021. That mark was the highest of the players I looked at for this exercise.

Projection

160 carries, 804 rush yards, 55 receptions, 253 rec yards, and 9 total touchdowns

JK Dobbins; Baltimore Ravens 

Like Swift, Dobbins was selected in the second round of the NFL draft. Also like Swift, Dobbins had just 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of plays. Unlike Swift though, Dobbins was hardly used in the passing game, seeing just 24 targets. However, Dobbins managed to make the most of his opportunities. Dobbins  averaged 6 yards per touch and evaded 47 tackles. He led the league in percentage of runs over 10 yards, as well as true yards per carry, which factors in the offensive line. Dobbins accounted for 9 total touchdowns last season on 28 red zone opportunities.

Looking at opportunity and production, Swift outperformed Dobbins in the touchdown efficiency department. A case can be made that Swift’s use in the passing game is the reason. However, to illustrate the efficiency Dobbins had running the ball, he averaged just .07 points per touch less than Swift with 1.04 on the season. Yet, it cannot go without saying that Dobbins has a quarterback who also takes away red zone touches. Lamar Jackson ran the ball 159 times last season adding 7 touchdowns. The Ravens also decided to let Mark Ingram leave for Houston, which could mean slightly more carries for Dobbins. However, a lack of targets means he will have to have Derrick Henry type usage, which is unlike the Ravens. That being said, Dobbins should still provide value due to his efficiency.

Projection

155 carries, 965 rush yards, 20 receptions, 130 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns

James Robinson; Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike Swift and Dobbins, Robinson had quite a different path to the NFL. As an undrafted free agent, Robinson forced his way onto the field and ran away with the job. Commanding 85% of the team’s opportunities, he made his presence felt. Out of this list, Robinson is the only player with more than 200 touches. He had 289. Robinson averaged 0.83 points per touch, which is impressive considering most of it came as rushing attempts. He accounted for 10 total touchdowns last season, more than a third of the team total.

With the Jaguars expected to improve in all phases of the game this year, they should see a touchdown increase, as well as increase the number of rush attempts from the 5th fewest in the NFL.  In free agency, the Jaguars added Carlos Hyde as a veteran presence. If Healthy, he should help make Robinson even more efficient. Robinson managed to evade  79 tackles, which was 5th best in the league. The offensive line should improve with another year together to provide more optimism heading into 2021 for Robinson. Given the current situation in Jacksonville, I like Robinson heading into next year.

Projection

255 carries, 1163 rush yards, 50 receptions, 239 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns 

Looking at these numbers and projections, it appears James Robinson is my favorite of the three. I am actually surprised at this myself. With Jamaal Williams joining Swift in the Detroit backfield, Swift could lose some of the passing game work that provides such upside. As an example of the value of receptions, here’s two players. Player 1 had 264 total touches for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns. Player 2 had 152 touches for 862 yards and 7 touchdowns. Player 1 is Kenyon Drake. In general, most would say he underwhelmed last season. Player 2 was Nyheim Hines. In PPR leagues, Hines outscored Drake by 1 point. 193.2-192.2. With this in mind, Dobbins would need 13 to 18 carries with nearly all the goal line work to offer similar upside to Swift and Robinson. With how the Ravens have played since Lamar Jackson became the starter, no single running back has had more than 230 touches in a season (Mark Ingram 2019). Swift will now likely share passing down work with Jamaal Williams, hurting his value. Of course the Jaguars can still add competition for Robinson in the draft, but as things currently lie, I’ll take Robinson followed by Swift then Dobbins.

 

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