Jack Doyle

AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC South 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Continuing our journey through the AFC we head south with the, wait for it, AFC South. Before we start, here is a reminder of what the team breakdowns are all about!

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a new QB, amazing O line, stout RB and WR groups, and HC Frank Reich. This offensive core is NEUTRAL, gladly targeting without reaching.

QB Phillip Rivers: QB2, priority FA, QB is too deep of a position to be drafting Rivers but always worth to keep a close eye on an established veteran with a strong supporting cast!

RB Jonathon Taylor: Low-RB2, ideal RB3, 10-12% auction, round 4, Jonathon Taylor feels a lot like Ezekiel Elliot’s rookie year. Great offensive live, in the mix with veteran RB prescence, drafted highly, studs in college, and could be a fantasy 1st rounder as a sophomore. Love him, think he will be special!

RBs Marlon Mack: (RB4, 3-4% auction, round 9) and Nyheim Hines (zeroRB and PPR target, RB5-6, 1-2% auction, round 13) are in the mix for splitting the workload. It would be wise to invest in this backfield!

WR TY Hilton: Low-WR2, ideal WR3, 6-7% auction, round 6, I think this best ball target is being a little undervalued with his cost, big upside! I think Rivers will look for him often!

WR Michael Pittman (priority FA, deep league end of bench WR) and Parris Campbell (WR5, 1-2% auction, round 14) are great complimentary pieces with TY Hilton. Both being big upside potential. The more I think about it the more I think this entire offense is undervalued!

TE Jack Doyle (TE2, borderline undraftable) and Trey Burton (priority FA, if Doyle misses time) will be more exciting options if a WR would miss time. Always best to keep an eye out for players in a good offense like this one!

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were certainly remembered for their playoff run last season. Nice bit of career redemption for Ryan Tannehill and monster efforts from Derrick Henry and AJ Brown were very exciting to see! The Titans are NEUTRAL with fair ADP all around.

QB Ryan Tannehill: QB2, priority FA, glad to see him do well on this team, struggling with injuries in Miami, it is always good to see a player full potential on display, I hope he can keep it up!

RB Derrick Henry: RB1, 20-22% auction, round 1, a big stock riser for me over the course of the summer, I now have him solidified as my RB6 and 6th overall player in all formats. This king of volume looks to repeat his success with little competition behind him.

RB Darryton Evans: RB6, $1 deep auction, intriguing prospect lands in a great situation. Pass-catching upside is there!

WR AJ Brown: Low-WR1 (robust RB with elite TR), ideal WR2, 12-13% auction, round 4, he had a truly amazing rookie season being a YAC monster, but questions of statistical sustainability linger. He is the top dog in town. Buy!

WR Corey Davis: (priority FA) has potential for opportunity, he just hasn’t done much with it so far. I’m fading until proven otherwise. Opportunity and talent remain bit I want to see it consistently come together before I get on my roster.

TE Jonnu Smith: TE2, $1 deep auction, round 14 if TE waiting has gone out of control. This TE on the rise certainly has plenty of opportunity with Delanie Walker out of town. Perhaps I’m too low on him but other TE options are more exciting to me. Worth drafting for sure! If he doesn’t pan out, TE is super deep.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a FADE, every player has value at a certain price, almost all of them I will be targeting only if at a bargain. Looming loses seems likely but week to week value can still be had.

QB Gardner Minshew: A national treasure, full of Chuck Norris energy! Or did Chuck Norris (RIP) have Gardner Minshew energy? Hmmm. Anyway, the only way I’m drafting him in standard rule leagues is with the Bud Light sweepstakes in mind. Have I mentioned that he is a national treasure?! Fun guy on a bad team, I’d rather not count on garbage time points.

RB Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, and Chris Thompson: After the release of Leonard Fournette, can one of these guys return fantasy value?  We always want to keep players on our radars, but in this case I’m gonna let the radar blip. If Chris Thompson can stay on the field he has legitimate pass catching upside. Deep PPR target.

WR DJ Chark: WR2, 6-7%, late-4th/early-5th, Nope, not going sing it, can’t do it, let’s not get that song stuck in your head, I won’t do that to you my valued reader. He had a glorious breakout season, and was garbage time proof! Focal point of the offense! Call Me Maybe...ha

WR Dede Westbrook (deep PPR target, priority FA) and WR Lavishka Shenault (priority FA, deep end of bench stash) are still intriguing in the way that fantasy points can still be had in this offense, especially with the passing game if they are trailing in games.

TE Tyler Eifert: low TE2, priority FA, always has upside when he is healthy, his journey in the NFL has been rough, always flashed but has overcome some brutal injuries. Rooting for the guy, keep an eye out!

Houston Texans

HC (and GM?) Bill O’Brien has made some “interesting” off season decisions... new faces include David Johnson and Brandin cooks but franchise WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Deshaun Watson alone makes this team full of NEUTRAL targets.

QB Deshaun Watson: QB1, 5% auction, round 7, rushing upside while surrounded by nice weapons continues to make him an attractive QB! This fantasy friendly offense is likely to find themselves in shoot-outs with Watson being the prime beneficiary!

RB David Johnson: “Ladder Pick”, RB2 12-13% auction, round 4, I was very happy to see that I am higher on him than the market is. Could see a lot of touches, some worry remains about what he is able to do with them. I’m ok taking that risk with a player with his inherent upside.

RB Duke Johnson: Low-RB4, zeroRB and PPR target, I wish he would be implemented more because he is a unique talent with great pass-catching ability. Houston could find themselves in some shoot-outs. Best ball target!

WR Will Fuller: Low-WR3/high-WR4, 5-6% auction, round 7, only worry is health, but when healthy the Sky is the literal limit! QB-WR Continuity will be key is the season! I’d be aggressive targeting him in Best ball!

WR Brandin Cooks: Low-WR3 (robust EB with elite TE), ideal WR4, on his 4th team now starting his 7th season, he has proven to be new location proof. Houston can put up some serious offensive numbers. PPR target!

WR Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb: Priority FAs in a good offense. Should become wildly relevant if Fuller/Cooks were to miss time!

Do the Colts Have the Right QB for Fantasy…Or Reality? 

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Do the Colts Have the Right QB for Fantasy...Or Reality? 

By Matt Kelley

I was mid fantasy draft last year in my ‘home league’ that I play in every year, when I received the notification that Andrew Luck was calling it a career. I had just made a selection, somewhere in the eighth round or so, and I just stared at my phone in bewilderment. One of the NFL’s most revered QBs was walking away during what seemed to be the prime of his career. 

Luck was unable to continue on with the grueling reality for him that was: play football, rehab, train, play football, rehab….you get it. A vicious cycle. Quick side note-- if anything comes up during a draft about a player, I usually don’t bother to tell anyone I’m drafting with as you should always be paying attention to these things while drafting. However, I did make it known that Luck had retired, and even with advanced warning given, he was still selected about two picks later.

Whoops. 

Anyway, the Indianapolis Colts were left with no choice but to turn over the reins of the QB position to Jacoby Brissett. The Colts would go 7-9 in the year that Andrew Luck retired right before the beginning of the season.  This was Brissett’s first real shot at being a starter (aside from 2107, when Brissett was traded to the Colts in September to fill in for Luck who didn’t return). 

Fast forward to today, where the Colts have brought in veteran QB Philip Rivers on a one-year, $25 million deal. Mind you, the Colts gave Brissett a two-year extension at a total of $30 million before last season started.  So as we head into 2020, it seems the Colts feel they have an opportunity to win now by bringing in Philip Rivers. While I’m not a NFL GM, I’m not so sure this will pay off in reality, nor in fantasy. 

Let’s take a look at why... 

The Offensive Line: 

Regardless of who you believe should be starting, the Colts will have the benefit of going into 2020 with Pro Football Focus’ top rated offensive line. Every player on the offensive line played over 1,000 snaps last season. Continuity goes a long way for offensive lines. For Philip Rivers, this is a massive upgrade. However, being part of a new team for the first time since 2004 is still something he has to adjust to. 

Rivers is the definition of a pocket QB. Since he took over as the Chargers starting QB in 2006, he’s only rushed for over 100 yards in a single season once. Brissett rushed for 228 yards in 15 games in 2019, and he also added four scores on the ground last season... one more than Rivers has in his entire career. The running game for Indy will thrive with this line and Rivers will have time to throw, but likely won’t add any real production on the ground himself. 

The Surrounding Cast: 

As a whole, Philip Rivers actually walks into a surrounding cast that is a slight downgrade than the one he had previously in San Diego/Los Angeles. Both the Chargers and Colts have excellent run games. As for the pass catchers, Keenan Allen is a better wide receiver than T.Y. Hilton at this point in their careers. Chargers tight end Hunter Henry is a player that is on the rise, while Eric Ebron has departed Indy, leaving the Colts with Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox. 

I know a lot of people are beating the drum for Jack Doyle now that he has a clear path to workload and because Rivers likes to throw to the TE, but Doyle has only one season over 59 catches in seven seasons. Perhaps I’ll be wrong about Doyle and his value for fantasy, but if a player is going to break out it’s likely not in their eighth season. 

While Mike Williams has been hit and miss throughout his time with Rivers on the Chargers, he is a veteran that provided a solid deep ball connection. Indy has the hyped rookie Michael Pittman Jr. as well as the relative unknown of Parris Campbell, as he only played seven games last season. 

More than any other player, Rivers has to adjust to his surroundings here in a shortened offseason. Timing goes a long way, and there’s a strong possibility of some bumps in the road to get things going in 2020 for Rivers and company. 

The Case For and Against Philip Rivers: 

Yards, yards, and more yards. 

There’s no denying that Rivers moves the ball through the air as he has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 11 of his last 12 seasons. He has also accounted for 30 or more passing touchdowns in six of those 12 seasons. Since 2011, Rivers has thrown 18 or more interceptions four times, including last season when he threw 20. Not ideal. In four point per passing TD leagues, Rivers scored 15 or more fantasy points in seven games. Pretty serviceable games. He scored less than 13 fantasy points in eight games. A bit less serviceable. Overall, last season was Rivers’ lowest fantasy output since 2012. 

The Chargers were a team in disarray for much of last season, as running back Melvin Gordon held out for training camp and the first three weeks of the regular season. The incredibly poor offensive line play for the Chargers gave Rivers almost no time to make quality decisions. Rivers had his lowest TD% of his career and tied his second highest mark for INT%. 

Rivers is currently going as QB22 in drafts, so the risk is pretty well in tune with his ADP at pick 148 overall. He provides upside in yardage and touchdowns, but he’s also not likely to give you anything in the rushing department and could possibly throw his way out of a good game with interceptions. 

The Case For and Against Jacoby Brissett: 

Brissett started last season pretty hot, earning more than 16 fantasy points in five of his first six games (three of those with 20+). Unfortunately, over the last nine games he would turn in four performances in which he produced single digit fantasy points. Not great. 

Brissett adds the threat of at least escaping the pocket to make something happen. His rushing wasn’t consistent game to game, but he did end the season with 228 rushing yards over 15 games and four scores on the ground. Brissett accounted for 22 total TD’s to only 6 INT’s. Efficient. That’s pretty good both for fantasy and for reality, especially when you consider Brissett’s top target for a number of weeks was Zach Pascal. 

For as much as Brissett’s average depth of target is talked about, T.Y. Hilton still had five receiving TD’s in the first five games of the season that he played... just one shy of Hilton’s TD total for all of 2018. 

The Colts could easily mirror last year’s Tennessee Titans by running the ball, playing defense, and just being efficient through the air. This fits with what Brissett does pretty well. 

The Colts did take Jacob Eason (QB out of Washington) in the fourth round of the NFL draft. That’s not huge draft capital, but it is worth noting. Eason can be viewed as a project QB and third on the QB depth chart. 

Where We Are: 

As mentioned in other pieces I’ve written, let’s follow the money. 

There was a ton of positive coach-speak last season popping up after the decision to pay Jacoby Brissett. However, the money in the one year deal for Rivers says the Colts look at him as the starter and that they believe he gives the Colts a better chance to win this season. The Colts wouldn’t be the first team to bring in a veteran QB only to have him get beat out in camp, but given the investment, I’d be surprised if Brissett is the opening day QB in Indy. 

No one could have predicted the shortened off-season that the NFL now has however, that’s the reality of 2020. No matter how you cut it, Brissett will go into camp with a better feel for this offense.  However, unless something comes out of camp that the tides have turned and Brissett is anointed the starter, you can’t really depend on him for redraft. You can’t depend on him for dynasty either, but I’d certainly be stashing him. Rivers will be 39 years old in December, and while he’s been an ironman of sorts, Father Time could catch up to him and provide an opportunity for Brissett to get another shot under center. 

If I knew going into the season that Brissett would be under center, I’d feel better about the Colts as well as the surrounding cast. 

Yes...I’m advocating that Brissett is the better option for the Colts. 

He’d need to prove himself more this season to be a long term dynasty investment, but if  T.Y. Hilton remained healthy, the offensive line stayed steady, and Jonothan Taylor added to the ground game, Brissett could remain efficient enough to sneak the Colts into the playoffs and be the better option for your fantasy squad. 

 

Follow me on Twitter @ThatMattKelley

ADP Early Values: AFC South

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ADP Early Values: AFC South

by Matt Kelley

We are now in July and folks are starting to turn on their spidey senses for fantasy football. If you’re reading this, those senses have probably already been on. We’ve talked NFC South value picks for where we are in the calendar year; let's shift our focus to the AFC South to talk about who you can snag at a value. As always, this article assumes a 12-team league and PPR scoring.

 

Houston Texans: Brandin Cooks

Well, the Texans certainly made some off-season noise, and it probably wasn’t what Texans fans were hoping for, when they shipped perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Deandre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson (there were some picks too, but...Deandre freaking Hopkins). That left the Texans with a pretty big hole at the wide receiver position. Brandin Cooks enters a WR corps that features Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb.

Cooks has four seasons in which he has compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards. Fuller, Stills, and Cobb have combined for one (Cobb, 2014). There are various reasons why that hasn’t occurred for these guys, but nonetheless Cooks comes into a situation with all of Hopkins’ vacated targets, Deshaun Watson - a quarterback in his prime, and by far the most accomplished WR. The Texans mark Cooks’ fourth team since entering the league in 2014.

His current ADP sits at WR 35, overall pick 73, in the top half of the sixth round. Teammate Will Fuller is going about ten picks before Cooks. Fuller has an electric connection with Watson when on the field but hasn’t started more than 11 games in the last three seasons, largely due to hamstring injuries. Cooks isn’t without risk as he has five documented concussions. The NFL has put more emphasis on concussions over the last several seasons, so it is worrisome that Cooks could be a hit away from leaving the field for an extended time.

By all accounts, Cooks has noted his health is fine, and he seems to be ready to forge on. If he can stay on the field, he’ll likely be an absolute steal at this point in a draft as there aren’t too many guys going this late with a proven 1,000 yard upside.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Marlon Mack

I know...and Jonathan Taylor, right? I know. Marlon Mack is currently going as RB 42, overall pick 113, in the top half of round 9. What I’ve taken away from the Colts coaching staff so far this offseason is that they believe this will be a committee situation in the backfield.

It’s no secret that Indy has a great offensive line, which is welcoming news to any RB and most likely more so to new incoming QB, Philip Rivers. With the offseason shortened, the Colts could turn towards the running game as a whole a bit more often while Rivers starts to settle in and develop chemistry. That said, Taylor will need to do the same to some degree.

I fully expect Mack to garner at least 60% of the touches through the first half of the year. Mack will certainly concede the passing down work to Taylor or Nyheim Hines. However, Mack is going about 70 picks after Taylor. With Mack having the early work (and likely being the starter for a large portion of the season), he could easily surpass RB42 value. In 26 games over the last two seasons, Mack has put up more than 1,900 yards rushing.

This isn’t a Frank Gore/Devin Singletary scenario. Plus in the last two seasons he’shad eight and nine touchdowns, respectively. I think Mack is still the go-to back at the goal line. He can be seen as a RB2 in the early portion of the season and also sustain weekly flex appeal throughout.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew II

I mustache you...do you like rushing quarterbacks? I know I do. Gardner Minshew had 281 yards rushing in 12 games last season - that’s about 21 yards a game. To some it might not sound like a ton, but in four point passing touchdown leagues, that comes out to an extra eight touchdowns over the course of a season...or it erases his fumbles from last season...however you’d like to look at it.

Minshew took over for Nick Foles last season, who went down pretty much out of the gate. It was a little back and forth with Foles and Minshew once Foles was back, but the Jags liked what they saw in Gardner (he’s also getting paid considerably less) and sent Foles to Chicago to compete with Mitch Trubisky. It was anticipated that the Jags would sign a higher profile backup or perhaps someone to compete with Minshew, but they really haven’t done that. Minshew goes into the season as the starter with no competition for his spot, a hopefully motivated Leonard Fournette, and a pretty good surrounding cast.

In fantasy drafts, he’s almost undrafted. He’s currently slotted in as QB 23, pick 223 overall - basically undrafted unless you have very deep rosters. If things don’t work out for Minshew, you really haven’t lost much in redraft leagues. Obviously in dynasty, you’d likely have an option ahead of Minshew or as your QB2 in SuperFlex leagues. The first two games for the Jags are tougher with the Colts and then on the road in Tennessee. After that though, the Jags get the Bengals, Texans, and Lions - all beatable defenses. If Minshew can limit his fumbles and get into the endzone on the ground a couple of times, he could be a great play in plus matchups and easily come in ahead of QB23.

 

Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith

I’ve already planted my flag and told you why you should draft Ryan Tannehill (you can find that from my earlier article on why he’s the real deal), so now I’ll let you know one of biggest reasons why he’ll be successful: his TE, Jonnu Smith. Smith is currently being drafted as TE 16, pick 154, the back of round 12. Now, if you’re drafting with me, Jonnu isn’t making it to the back half of round 12. Smith is option number two in the passing game behind A.J. Brown in this offense. The Titans obviously had a tale of two seasons last year. One with Marcus Mariota, and the other with the aforementioned Tannehill. From week eight forward, Smith saw at least four targets in six games. Not a ton of volume I’ll give you, but the Titans leaned on the monster that was Derrick Henry down the stretch...and who can blame them?

While the Titans are likely to run Henry for everything he has left in him this year, Tannehill proved to be efficient in this system, and both he and Smith will have a full off-season knowing they’re locked into starting roles. I’m not telling you that Smith is the next Mark Andrews or George Kittle, but I am saying he’s in an offense that is efficient (as he was at 12.5 yards a grab last season), and will have plenty of scoring opportunities. I think Smith could provide weekly upside to finish within the top six at his position and within the top 10 TE’s for the season.

You can follow me @ThatMattKelley

ADP Early Values: NFC South

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ADP Early Values- NFC South

by Matt Kelley

 

ADP. Average. Draft. Position. There’s almost nothing you’ll hear more about in terms of a
fantasy football draft between now and the kickoff of the NFL season. ADP can fluctuate
depending on your league type, scoring and league size. For the sake of this article, we’re going
to assume that the league is a 12 team, PPR, single QB, and a total of 16 roster spots (all ADP
in this article is based on Bestball 10’s 12 player leagues). Pretty standard league, a format
you’ll most likely play in if you’re reading this

.
As always, the goal in a draft is to take someone at an Average Draft Position that is most
beneficial. Let’s say you want Drew Brees as your QB. Nothing wrong with that, but you don’t
need to take him with your first pick. In fact, you probably don’t need to take him with your first
eight picks. If you wait eight picks and miss out on him, good news for you, someone has let
value at another position fall and you’ll still get a good QB. ADP should be used as a guide
throughout your draft to understand where players are typically going, not as a strict source to
say you need to take this player. Depending on what position you draft from you may be able to
wait on a certain player, you may need to reach to get your guy and both of those are okay.
Know your leaguemates if you can. Where they’re from, tendencies, and experience. All of this
can influence ADP.
Now that we’ve breezed by what ADP is, what it means, and how it’s used, let's look at some
fellas in the NFC South that should outperform their ADP.

Atlanta Falcons:

Russell Gage-- I know, how many fantasy relevant wide receivers can the Falcons have? Well,
I’m borderline saying three. We all know about Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley but if you didn’t
watch a lot of Falcons football last year, you may have missed out on Gage. Then again, if you
did, he may have won you a week here and there from the waiver wire. Gage is currently going
at pick 232-- 19th round-- i.e. free unless you’re in a really, really deep league. So while
technically you don’t need to draft Gage by ADP, he might be worth that late round flyer pick.
Mohammud Sanu was dealt to the Patriots and that role has been filled by Gage. From week
eight on, Gage saw at least four targets in every game. In games without Jones or Ridley, Gage
saw double digit targets in two games. In two other games with Jones and Ridley, Gage saw
nine targets. Gage totaled 70 targets from week seven forward. Austin Hooper vacates 97
targets (over 13 games) and I don’t think all of those are going right back to Hurst. If you haven’t
caught on by now, the Falcons throw the ball a lot. Normally you’d hear there’s too many
mouths to feed between Jones, Ridley, Hurst and Todd Gurley but, I think the volume is there
for Gage to have flex appeal on most any given week. He’ll be on the field in three wide receiver
sets so his snap share is capped but, should Julio or Ridley miss time, he’s an easy plug and
play. If you draft him, you can save your FAAB and not worry about fighting for him on the
waiver wire.

Carolina Panthers:

Christian McCaffrey-- ok just kidding. Actual Player: Ian Thomas. As mentioned in my Panthers
preview, Ian Thomas is now the TE in Carolina, no longer behind Greg Olsen. Ian Thomas is
currently going as the 18th TE off the board, pick 143 overall, top of the 12th round. He’s going
nearly 30 picks after Dallas Goedert who is the second TE on his own team. The top three TE in
fantasy seem to be pretty clear cut with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. There’s
some positions where I deviate from top players, TE isn’t one of them, these guys are to me, in
their own class. So if you miss out on these three guys, WAIT. There’s a ton of TE’s left after
those three and it's one of the most difficult positions to lockdown in fantasy, I know. Here’s the
thing though, Thomas walks into a role where the TE saw 82 targets last season in 14 games.
Nearly six targets a game. Carolina is in an entirely new regime with Matt Rhule and company
but, the offense should see an uptick in pace, which should mean more plays, which should
mean more opportunity. 80+ targets is well within the range of outcomes for Thomas. Thomas is
also going after guys like Hayden Hurst (whew, that hype train is starting to go off the rails),
Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, and T.J. Hockenson. Not to get too deep into the woods here
because we could be here all day but Thomas has a very real possibility to outperform all of
these players. Is there risk involved? Yea, we’re talking about a player in the 12th round. I think
Thomas will be worth your pick and worth the wait at the position and finish around TE 14, with
an outside shot to break into the top 12.

New Orleans Saints:

Emmanuel Sanders. I’m going to be real honest... I have buyers remorse from buying into a role
that has been unpredictable for fantasy managers over the years. Teddy Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith
(shudders), and Brandon Coleman. It’s been since 2016 since the WR2 on the Saints had
meaningful value and wasn’t just a shot in the dark (technically Michael Thomas was the two
that year with Brandin Cooks being the one, remember that?). So why is this year different?
Well, few things. The NFC South is absolutely loaded. Every one of those matchups has the
ability to turn into a shootout. Oh by the way, the Saints also face the Raiders, Lions, and the
Chiefs (good luck keeping up). Michael Thomas is largely, and rightfully so, considered the best
WR in the league. Attention will surely be devoted his way giving Sanders both the second best
defender on a team and often, in plus matchups. Emmanuel Sanders walked right into San
Francisco last season and got 97 targets on a team that threw the ball 476 times. The Saints
have been lower passing volume the last couple of years but the Saints should surpass the 500
attempt mark in what could be QB Drew Brees last season. If the Saints throw 530 times,
Emmanuel Sanders would need an 18% target share to see 95 targets. Both seem like fairly
reasonable numbers. Plus, Drew Brees is still hyper efficient. Manny Sanders has an ADP of
113, the middle of ninth round and the 47th WR off the board. While his upside is capped
because, well, Michael Thomas, Sanders can provide you with weekly flex value with occasional
WR2 upside. I’m going back to the well here, give me Manny Sanders!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady. It’s still weird that he isn’t a Patriot right? Gronk too. At this moment, you could say
both guys are a value but, let’s focus on Brady. Brady currently has an ADP of 122, the first pick
of round 10, and the 13th QB off the board. He’s teetering on QB1 territory here, so he’s a value
for now, we’ll have to see what this looks like in August. The Patriots have largely won off of
defense, short passes, featuring random running backs, and ‘Beli-checking’ everyone. At least
we think, right? Brady has actually thrown the ball at least 570 times the last three seasons. In
4pt per passing touchdown leagues, Brady hasn’t hit the 300 fantasy point mark since 2015.
He’s been a steady option, he just hasn’t necessarily provided league winning upside. Grant you
in 2016 he scored 258 points after his "Deflategate" suspension and he could have won folks a
league that year. This year though, Brady departs everything he’s ever known to a team that
has arguably the league's best wide receiver corps. He’s reunited with his buddy Rob
Gronkowski so there’s a familiar safety blanket for Brady assuming Gronk can stay on the field.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are absolute monsters and Brady’s best collective options in
years. Brady has quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last three seasons. As talked
about with the Saints, the Bucs are in this loaded NFC South and are going to have to put up a
lot of points. I expect Brady is currently being drafted at his floor with a ceiling of being in the top
8 fantasy quarterbacks. Think Jameis Winston numbers with a *few* less interceptions.

@ThatMattKelley