Indianapolis Colts

AFC South Predictions

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AFC South Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

Now that the schedule for the 2022 NFL season is out, I thought it would be fun to predict how these teams would be for this upcoming season.  These predictions are based on previous results, byes and straight up gut feelings.  Although some results are not surprising, I was shocked at some of these predictions.

 

Houston Texans

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 3-13-1

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Texans have made improvements to be sure, especially on defense, but they still have work to do.  The offensive weapons aren’t completely lacking, but the explosion, particularly on the ground, is still missing.  Davis Mills still needs time to develop and until he is protected more, it’s going to be a while.  As much as I love Brandin Cooks, he can’t do everything for the Texans anymore.

 

Situation to watch

Like I mentioned before, I really need to see some explosion in the running game.  Highly anticipated draftee, Dameon Pierce will be one to watch and we’ll have to see if Marlon Mack still has gas left in the tank.  The Texans haven’t instilled fear into the opposition at running back for a while now and this needs to be happen soon.

 

Conclusion

I truly believed in my heart that the Texans were due for an improvement, albeit a slight one in 2022.  Upon looking at the schedule, I guess that isn’t the case.  I only see them winning one game in their division, making the mountain all the more higher to climb.  A prediction of basement dwelling is upon us.

 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Record in 2021: 9-8-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 12-5-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

It’s obvious that the biggest weapon is phenom Jonathan Taylor, but we can’t forget that this team is stacked from top to bottom.  Utilizing an underrated defense, and sneaky good receivers, they’ll improve greatly from 2022.  The only worry is that their fifth starting quarterback in as many years may not get up to speed right away, even though it is Matt Ryan.  Just remember the 37 year old isn’t the same guy who played in Super Bowl LI.

 

Situation to watch

Although many people have their focus on Matt Ryan, I am actually more excited to see how Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue do in Indianapolis.  They are two of the quieter acquisitions this offseason for players of their caliber.  I am also anxious to see what happens with Xavier Rhodes.  He may not be the same caliber as he was years ago in Minnesota, but he can’t still help if he stays.

 

Conclusion

It’s probably not shocking for most to see such an assessment.  While the Colts started strong in 2021, which should be repeated, I don’t see the rapid decline that happened at the end of last season.  There was a lot of hate coming Carson Wentz’s way, but now the Colts have no excuse.  Indianapolis is poised to lead the division in 2022.

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record in 2021: 3-14-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The defense for the Jaguars was appalling last season.  Management went and grabbed two studs in the draft to address this.  Shad Khan also opened the vault this offseason, signing many offensive pieces to help Lawrence.  Let’s not forget that Jacksonville will get a healthy Travis Etienne moving forward.  I do worry about the newest signings not being game breakers.  Depth is great, but monster starters are also needed.

 

Situation to watch

Above anything else, I'm sure I’m not alone in my curiosity toward Doug Pederson’s second stint at coaching.  With Urban Meyers setting a garbage fire last season, it will be interesting to see what the former Super Bowl winning coach does to address the situation in Jacksonville.  I always thought Pederson was unjustly let go, so we’ll see if he proves me right.

 

Conclusion

I am possibly the most bullish non Jaguars fan in the world with my prediction for 2022.  The four road wins I am seeing them accomplish next season certainly helps more than anything for Trevor Lawrence and company.  And although I said it before, A healthy Etienne should make a world of difference for the Jags in 2022.

 

 

Tennessee Titans

Record in 2021: 12-5-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Even at 28 years old, Derrick Henry continues to defy Father Time.  His impact as a true smasher can’t be understated and there is a threat at all times that he is on the field.  Boasting fantastic health before last season, there is a slight worry his body won’t be as resilient moving forward.  The team is going to have to adjust for the eventual transition that needs to take place.

 

Situation to watch

.The chalky answer is the one I’m going with here. WIth AJ Brown now playing for the Eagles, the Titans now focus on other faces.  Although the entire receiver room isn’t new, Robert Woods and Treylon Burks will be very interesting to watch.  Will Robert Woods be the same man after the injury?  And will Treylon Burks be able to fill Brown’s shoes moving forward?  Only time will tell and I’m excited to see the results.

 

Conclusion

It’s not that the Titans are worse than they were in 2021, it’s more that other teams have gotten better.  I see a few teams that they would have beaten in 2021 rising about them in 2022.  The departure of AJ Brown should also rock the boat a bit when it comes to their success.  That being said, I don’t see the Titans being down for long.

Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

By Bob Miller

 

As the NFL Draft approaches, dynasty owners wait with anticipation to see where these rookies end up. Where does Breece Hall end up.. how about Malik Willis? There are so many questions yet to be answered. One question that everyone seems to know the answer to is “Who is the overall RB1 in dynasty?” Jonathan Taylor seems to be the unanimous answer to that question, but I have my doubts. I know that may seem crazy, but here me out. It's obvious that buying Jonathan Taylor seems like a no-brainer. Not only am I going to give you some reasons to buy JT, but I'm going to give you some reasons to actually sell him as well.

 

 

Age

Taylor is entering his age 23 season and has his whole future ahead of him. Any educated Dynasty League owner knows that a running backs' dynasty value doesn't last very long. The younger the better. It seems that around that age 26-27 season is when we start seeing issues such as a declining skill set that results in the drafting of a younger, cheaper running back. The biggest issue as of late is their large cap number. Past stud running backs with these possible issues include Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. All of them could be traded or outright released this next offseason. With all that being said, it makes Jonathan Taylor worth that much more in dynasty.

 

Touches and Durability

Taylor is an unquestioned workhorse running back, which is rare these days. Some fantasy analysts had strong concerns that his usage in college would affect his performance/durability in the NFL. So far, those analysts have been wrong. In fact, last season Taylor had 372 total touches that included 332 carries and 40 receptions. His durability is not an issue as he has only missed one game in his two seasons so far. The sky could be the limit with Taylor running behind that elite offensive line in Indianapolis. You can plug him in as your RB1 for the next couple of seasons with very little concern. You can’t say that about many running backs these days.

 

 

 

Worst RB1 since 2015

This past season Taylor finished at 22.54 fantasy points per game.. the worst overall RB1 numbers since Devonta Freeman in 2015. Derrick Henry actually averaged 26.92 fantasy points per game last season before going down with his injury. In 2020 Taylor would have finished 4th behind McCaffrey, Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. Listen.. I’m not saying he stinks, but in PPR leagues, he just isn’t the unanimous RB1 to me. Although he should be a lock for 20 fantasy points a game, we could see Henry, McCaffrey, and Dalvin finishing ahead of him this coming season. Since this in dynasty, I still have JT ranked ahead of all three of those guys. With that being said, I can see a players like Najee Harris, Cam Akers, or Javonte Williams taking claim as the overall RB1 in PPR Dynasty this time next season.

 

Selling Price

With Taylor ranked as the dynasty RB1, it makes me wonder what I can get for him. That hype and dynasty ranking makes him more valuable than he may actually be. Why not dangle him out there and see if you can get a king’s ransom in exchange. I haven’t seen him move much in dynasty, however I have seen some incredible returns in the deals that I have seen. Just yesterday I saw Taylor traded for McCaffrey, Kelce, and Deebo Samuel. I’d take that all day. He was traded in another dynasty league I’m in for JK Dobbins, two mid 1sts, a 2nd, and a 2023 1st. Um.. yes please! After seeing these returns, I absolutely encourage you to see what kind of haul you can get for Taylor.

 

I’ve said this a million times.. I’m a businessman when it comes to dynasty. Not one player of mine is ever “off-limits”. I’m always in the business of making a profit when the opportunity presents itself. With that being said, don't trade Jonathan Taylor just for the sake of making a trade. We all have one of those guys in our leagues haha. Shop Taylor to see what you can get, and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. You’re not married to these guys, and everything can change with a snap of the finger, ask Christian McCaffrey owners. There is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping Taylor, as he should be a steady top 3-5 dynasty RB for the next few years. However if someone offers you the moon, smash the accept button.

 

 

You can follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBobFF

AFC South Best Values

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AFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Now that we’re knee deep into the off season, many of us are looking for any taste of fantasy football relevance whatsoever.  A wise dynasty manager, however, needs more than just a taste to satisfy their football hunger pains.  We, as managers, should always be looking to improve our ever evolving fantasy franchises.  Whether you are trying to get out of the basement, finally be a playoff contender or even repeat as champion, the common thread is that a winning manager doesn’t sit on his riches.  And in this crucial time before the NFL Entry Draft, you should be looking at value players to add to your team.  Today, let’s dive into the best values for each team in the AFC South.

 

Houston Texans: Quarterback – Davis Mills

What a whirlwind it’s been for the Houston Texans.  The drama of Deshaun Watson seemed to have overtaken every aspect of the team’s story, but now that Watson has moved on with the Cleveland Browns, we can finally think about anything else in Houston.  The situation is quite dire on the outside, but if we dig a little deeper, there are diamonds covered in coal dust.  There weren’t many players last season as unrecognized for their efforts as Davis Mills.  Even with all the drama, haters, and lack of weapons, Davis Mills quietly put together a nice rookie season.

It must have been crazy for Mills.  Here you are, drafted to a team with seemingly no chance to play, and suddenly, you are thrust into the limelight with fantasy and real life fans alike demanding greatness.  Anyone who says the Houston Texans skilled players are near the bottom of the league aren’t wrong, but even with them, Davis Mills actually performed better than most think.  There are obvious differences, but under a more stringent microscope, Mills compares closer to fellow rookie, Mac Jones.  You also have to discount Mills’ first six games where he got booed by his own fans for not being named Deshaun Watson.  As the season grew, Mills did more with so little than most other quarterbacks.  Moving forward, he’s not a top tier QB1, but he’s surely got a shot at being a decent, dependable QB2.  The price is right for picking.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Wide Receiver – Parris Campbell

There was a time when the name Parris Campbell brought nothing but excitement.  In 2019, the Indianapolis Colts took Campbell as the seventh wide receiver off the board and for many, he was a total steal.  In his senior year, he absolutely exploded from his norm and this was what many thought was just things to come.  At the NFL level, however, he’s yet to show anything close to those “true colors”.  He’s also been injured each and every year.  Most critics have already written him off, but I think there’s a world in which Parris Campbell still holds value.

Admittedly, the exodus of Carson Wentz was somewhat shocking to me.  I knew that there was a chance, but with what the Colts invested to get him, I was sure it was too soon to cut him loose.  Once I saw the Matt Ryan move, it all made sense.  And, this is the same reason why moving for Parris Campbell makes sense.  Matt Ryan ain’t no spring chicken, as they say, but he’s far from done.  Now in a strong system, with tons of support, we’ll see something closer to the Matt Ryan of old.  While everyone feigns for Michael Pittman like they always should have, everyone will forget about the forgettable Parris Campbell.  After Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan will turn to someone and I believe it will be Campbell; who’s essentially free in most leagues.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Tight End – Evan Engram

I have to confess something.  I’ve been an Evan Engram truther since I rostered him in his historic rookie season.  He was nothing short of amazing and when I say, “historic”, I’m not exaggerating.  In his rookie season, not only did he score six times, which is incredible as a rookie tight end, but he also had the 7th most receiving yards of all time.  And while I still love to watch him, I had to come to the realization that his rookie season was a fluke and he’ll always be injured or underutilized or both.  That was, until he came to Jacksonville.

While I still have faith in Daniel Jones, I have even more faith in Trevor Lawrence.  The Clemson product is elite, despite what people are saying because of his rookie season.  Jacksonville is doing what they can to build around him and Evan Engram will suit him nicely.  The receiving core isn’t among the league’s best and Etienne hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, so Lawrence will need a good safety valve to rely on.  Many managers will be coveting Dan Arnold, so there will be many opportunities to trade for Engram for next to nothing.  There’s a chance that Engram’s elite days are over, but I’m willing to try one last time in this better situation and price.

Tennessee Titans: Wide Receiver – Robert Woods

The Tennessee Titans featured one of the best receiving corps in football last season.  AJ Brown is a top three dynasty wideout for many and Julio Jones is absolutely legendary.  The depth is also fantastic with so many young options to choose from.  But, it’s almost criminal how that team couldn’t make Julio Jones shine in his only season away from the Atlanta Falcons.  I know there were injuries, but it was just insane how strongly the regression took place.  Now that he’s gone, the Titans turn to former Rams stud, Robert Woods.

While Robert Woods is no Julio Jones in his prime, he is a fantastic number two under AJ Brown.  He’s a perfect example of how to succeed in a shared receiver offense as he did it with Cooper Kupp for many years.  And while he’s not young, at 29, Woods still has lots of time to prove he’s still got it after last year’s injury.  Derrick Henry can’t be the entire offense anymore and this will force the ball to others, like Robert Woods.  We also can’t forget that Robert Woods looked so good catching balls from the likes of Jared Goff.  No disrespect to Goff, but Tannehill has to be considered an upgrade by many.  Acquire him at a WR4 cost and watch him blossom as a low end WR2 with upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Top Dynasty Values/Buys

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Top Dynasty Values/Buys

 

We consider “Dynasty Buys” players who some would argue are being undervalued in dynasty leagues. These can be players who had their 2020 season cut short due to injury. They can also be rookies, 2020 disappointments, or undrafted players who are now in better situations. This could be players who are in better schemes that could give them more opportunity as well. Don’t underestimate this list of players, as they could be potential league winners. Read below to check out who the writers here at Dynasty Pros plan on selecting in all their drafts after the first three rounds.

 

Question: Who’s that one player currently outside the top 36 in the PPR Dynasty Leagues that you are drafting everywhere and why?

 

Javonte Williams (RB - DEN) Consensus Rank: 50th Overall | RB20

“Williams is a player I’m targeting on all my dynasty drafts in 2021. The Denver Broncos traded up in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft to grab the electric running back out of North Carolina. That type of investment tells me that Williams should be heavily involved in the Broncos offense immediately. Veteran running back Melvin Gordon no-showing at voluntary OTAs could really help Williams separate himself and win the starting job this summer. Williams has the tools to be a top tier running back, as he led the FBS last season in missed/broken tackles with 75 on just 157 rushing attempts. Don’t be worried about his toughness either, as he was a linebacker-turned-running back in college. I consider him a phenomenal value, since he is currently being drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds. This is a steal for a running back that could be starter come Week 1”

- Bob Miller (@DynastyProBob)

 

 

Zach Ertz (TE - PHI) Consensus Rank: 163 Overall | TE20

“It may seem strange to find a guy like Zach Ertz in a “Dynasty Buy” article with him being 30 years old and approaching 31 but this is exactly where Ertz should be.  In any dynasty buy article you are looking for two things, to buy at a value and a player who has more than one year of productivity left.  Ertz fits both of those categories but the value may not last much longer if he is traded in the coming days or weeks.  Tight ends typically play into their mid 30’s and Ertz has been a phenomenal player with the exception of last year.  Ertz dealt with some injuries last year but more importantly Philly was just a mess and you must take that into consideration when evaluating Ertz.  I believe it’s safe to assume that Ertz is in for a bounce back season especially with a zip code change coming anytime.  Ertz had five straight seasons with at least 74 catches and over 800 yards until last season.  He’s still athletic and he’s likely to be the tight end #1 on any team he plays for.  The time to buy is now before a trade happens because if Ertz is traded to a team like the Indianapolis Colts or Buffalo Bills his value will immediately spike.  Go get this guy in your dynasty leagues where you are a contender this year and next.”

- Levi Ellis (@FFStock_Man37)

 

 

Darnell Mooney (WR - CHI) Consensus Rank: 129 Overall | WR55

“Darnell Mooney had a solid rookie season for the Bears in 2020. After somewhat coming out of nowhere, the former 5th round pick finished 2nd on the team in targets (98), receptions (61), and yards (631). The inconsistent QB play of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles hampered Chicago's passing game, affecting Mooney's...and Allen Robinson's...production. Mooney' speed makes him a serious downfield threat for a QB who can get him the ball.  Andy Dalton and/or rookie Justin Fields should be a definite upgrade for the Bears pass catchers. I am buying Darnell Mooney in every league I can get him in. I predict him to put up 77 Receptions, 986 Yards, and 7 TDs. That’s 217 PPR points, which are solid WR2 numbers. That’s fantastic value for a guy going in the mid-to-later rounds of dynasty drafts.”

- Tommy Harvey (@DynastyProsTom)

 

 

Parris Campbell (WR - IND) Consensus Rank: 143 Overall | WR59

The biggest thing Parris Campbell has going for him right now is his price tag. In most leagues, you can pretty regularly get him for a late 2nd which is getting into the “dart throw” range of picks. All players around there are going to have their question marks. For Campbell that is clearly his injury history, though reports say he’s fully healthy. Now, while there is some amount of injury risk, if he stays healthy he’s in a good position to exceed his current price. It’s a very, very small sample size but in the one full game he did play last year, he had 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 71 yards. For 16 games, he would be on pace for 140+ targets, 90+ catches, and 1100+ yards. That’s WR1 level usage and people are selling him for almost nothing. Again, that was a very small sample size and 2022 will not be the same as 2021 (Carson Wentz as the new QB, Michael Pittman also taking a step up, etc.). Still, there is a pretty high ceiling there for Campbell and, outside of injuries, he’s shown that he can be a starter in the NFL. Even if he doesn’t live up to his ceiling, I fully expect him to outperform his current price tag.

- Zach Owen (@NuetralZoneFF)

 

 

Gabriel Davis (WR - BUF) Consensus Rank: 148 Overall | WR61

“The Buffalo Bills were good. Really good in 2020. Part of their success came from improved QB play from Josh Allen, and the ability for his WR to step up. Josh Allen threw the ball 572 times in 2020. My 2021 projections don't have him falling flat of that and I believe Gabriel Davis, not Emmanuel Sanders benefits from this. Davis was a fourth round pick by the Bills in 2020 and took full advantage when Brown got hurt. He ended his rookie campaign with 35 rec/599 yards/7TDs. He was extremely effective in the endzone and while some say his high TD rate isn't sustainable, I believe he’s got the ability to end with double digit TDs in 2021. Let me explain. 

Gabriel Davis comes in at 6’2, and was learning to utilize his size last year. He became the deep ball target that Allen could lean on, with four of his seven TDs coming from 20 or more yards. Davis ended the year with an NFL 7th best reception average of 17.1! Davis comes in as the tallest WR on the Buffalo roster (Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders all 6’ or shorter) so should become one of Allen’s best red zone targets. Buffalo did not go out and get some TE help (at least not yet) and let go of John Brown this offseason, which also is a positive impact for Davis. I’m predicting 67 receptions, 991 receiving yards, 10TDs (226 PPR pts). With a year under his belt and some offseason noise of the continued chemistry with Josh Allen, I’m fully invested in Gabriel Davis. So should you.”

- Ralph Martinez (@LobosFFDen)

 

 

Michael Gallup (WR - DAL) Consensus Rank: 100 Overall | WR44

“The general consensus on Michael Gallup is that he is the WR3 for the Cowboys behind Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. Some how Gallup still managed to receive over 100 targets last year in that same role. Also, there were only two guys who had more targets in the NFL who were a WR3 for their respective team. Those two players were Chase Claypool (the Steelers were #1 in pass attempts) and Russell Gage (the Falcons were #4 in pass attempts). Russell Gage also benefited from Julio Jones missing 7 games. Many assume Lamb will take a larger chunk of that share this year but it is also easy to forget that the QB situation also improves a lot. In 2019 Gallup put up over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs in a full season with Dak Prescott. Gallup is also in his final year of his contract and there could be a few things that raise his stock. Gallup could hit free agency and find himself on a team to be at worst the WR2. The Cowboys also have an out on Amari Cooper which would increase the chances Gallup is resigned by the Cowboys to pair up with Lamb. The third option is Gallup could be traded. If he is traded, the team acquiring him is likely a WR needy team that will force him the ball. Gallup has showed he is talented enough to get a large target share even in a crowded WR room, and his situation can only improve.”

- Collin Kral (@CollinKral)

 

 

Noah Fant (TE - DEN) Consensus Rank: 69 Overall | TE7

I have always loved Noah Fant as I am a lifelong Iowa Hawkeyes fan and that is where he caught my eye. Fant came into the NFL with every indication he was going to be elite. He is a 95+ percentile athlete in every category! He hasn’t become any less elite during his two years in the NFL. 

Fant’s stats in the NFL are matching up with his elite profile. Fant put up the 6th most receiving yards by a rookie TE since 2000– with 562 yards. That yardage came from 8 games of Joe Flacco, 3 games of Brandon Allen, & 5 games of a rookie Drew Lock at QB. Yeah, not a great list.

What about year two? Let’s dive in! In year two Fant put up 673 yards in 15 games. As we dive deeper we see that in one of those games there was one pass completed by Kendall Hinton, and another game he left after 5 snaps. I know it isn’t always fun to play the “what if” game because it's hypothetical, but if you extrapolate and do some math he was on pace for 812 yards in 16 games, while also dealing with a high ankle sprain. 

If you take Fant’s total yardage from his first two seasons, he’s in good company in total receiving yards among TE’s since 2000. He’s 10th on the list, behind Antonio Gates, Gronk, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham and Jason Witten. His 10 spot also ranks ahead of the likes of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed and Dallas Clark. Not bad company. 

Can he keep it going? Sutton is healthy and Jeudy is a mad man when it comes to route running. How does he get the ball? With Lock, Bridgewater, Driskel, Rypien, and Hinton at QB. Stats can’t go down from last year. I project the Broncos to have 4000+ passing yards no matter who is at QB. I mean look at the Steelers and the Cowboys and the Panthers, they supported 3-4 really solid receiving options. Speaking of the Panthers QB that supported those several good fantasy options, Teddy Bridgewater is now in town, which may allow for some consistency at the QB position. Although they have yet to name a starter, I believe that Teddy could Keep all 3 of the big weapons in Denver pretty pleased!

Noah Fant is absolutely elite and he may not break out this year folks. However, this is dynasty; you want to buy before the breakout. Noah Fant is 23 years old, an absolute stud and a QB away from being one of the next GREAT TE’s! He is a bargain at his current Dynasty ADP and I suggest you buy him before it is too late.

- Zach Kurt (@zachattacknfl)

 

 

Jerry Jeudy (WR - DEN) Consensus Rank: 51 Overall | WR24

Let’s rewind the clock to 2019. It’s just before draft time, and Jerry Jeudy is being touted as the best WR prospect since Julio Jones. Considered among many to be the best route runner to come out of Alabama. Fast forward to now. Rookie season complete and where do we stand? 

Jerry Jeudy finished his rookie year with an underwhelming performance. Or did he? Jeudy received 113 targets last year. Of those, only 58% were considered catchable. He caught 52 of those 113 targets. That’s a 46% catch rate. He also had 8 drops. If you add those drops to his reception total, his catch rate jumps to 53%. I realize it’s a little off the cuff math, yet Jeudy never had drop issues in his career at Alabama, so I don’t expect a repeat of this number. 

Looking deeper into his stats, Jeudy finished with 1,536 air yards, good enough for 6th most in the NFL.  Jeudy is the only player to finish top-10 in air yards who didn’t finish with at least 1,000 receiving yards. He should reach that mark in year 2. He also averaged over 1.5 yards of separation per target, which means he was open frequently. 

I think Jeudy's primary issue was quarterback play. In the offseason, the Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater from the Panthers. Last season, Bridgewater managed to propel wide receivers to top-36 fantasy finishes. As odd as it may sound, Bridgewater should be an upgrade at quarterback for Jeudy in 2021. Look for Jeudy to finish as a reliable WR2 this season. Maybe the most appealing is the cost to acquire him. In redraft and best ball, I've seen him go as late as the 9th round. In dynasty, I recently sent a 2nd round pick for him. Jerry Judy is a great buy right now, before he breaks out in 2021.

- Alex French (@TheBlindGuyFF)

 

 

Sam Darnold (QB - CAR) Consensus Rank: 172 Overall | QB27

“One player that I am currently buying in dynasty is QB Sam Darnold for 3 primary reasons:

  • At only 24 years old, Sam Darnold is entering his 4th NFL season and no longer trapped underneath the perpetual storm cloud of a head coach named Adam Gase. The grass is always greener when players are beyond the grasp of Gase. QB Ryan Tannehill is the most notable example of a player who’s talent and potential was capped but then resurged for an epic career redemption once they were set free from the clutches of the horrific incompetence of Adam Gase. Besides the addition by subtraction with Adam Gase, Darnold has been given the metaphorical keys to the car which bring me to reason 2...
  • Job security. Carolina has demonstrated full confidence to Darnold as they traded away their incumbent starter, Teddy Bridgewater, to the Denver Broncos in the weeks leading up to the 2021 NFL draft. Carolina then traded for Darnold and then passed on drafting a QB despite sitting in a prime spot for a QB in the first round. Carolina further displayed their commitment as they picked up Darnold’s 5th year option the day following the 1st round of the NFL draft. Darnold will now have at least two years to show what he is capable of with what is easily the best offensive arsenal he has ever played with in the NFL which is a segue to Reason 3...
  • Darnold’s vastly improved arsenal will include the following: Darnold will be under the wing of the young and intriguing Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady (former LSU OC who played a massive role in Joe Burrow’s record breaking and national championship winning season!), versatile RB stud Christian McCaffrey, rising WR stud DJ Moore, intriguing rookie WR prospect Terrace Marshall, and finally, Darnold will be reunited with his favorite target during his best statistical season; the spry veteran WR Robby Anderson!

He is one of my favorite QB2 options in Super Flex dynasty startups and at the current moment his cost is extremely reasonable for drafts and trades. I firmly believe his career trajectory has nowhere to go but up!”

- Steve Uetz (@FantasyLadder)

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

The Winners and Losers of the Carson Wentz Trade 

by

The Winners and Losers of the Carson Wentz Trade 

By Charlie Friar and Ralph Martinez

It happened, it finally happened. Carson Wentz is out of Philly. No need to get into ‘who won/lost’ this trade when it comes to real-life because the reality is both teams did what needed to be done to better their respective organizations. It was well-known that Carson Wentz wanted out of Philly and Indy needed a QB with Phillip Rivers’s retirement. The bigger shock in all of this; is what the Eagles got in return (2021 3rd round pick & a 2022 2nd round conditional pick). It would’ve been nice for Philly to get another 2nd rounder or something of equal value for the former MVP runner-up.

If you’re a Colts fan, you have some high hopes in 2021. First you didn’t have to give up a 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick this year. Well done Chris Ballard. Secondly, Carson Wentz’s best season came under the guidance of Frank Reich (more on that below). Since Reich’s departure from Philly, Wentz hasn’t been able to recapture his ‘glory days’ of 2017 and ultimately hit rock-bottom in 2020. If Wentz can get back just half of his potential the Colts are and should be in the Super Bowl conversation. 

This trade is historic too! With the deal the Eagles now take on the largest dead money cap hit in the history of the NFL at $33.8 million. So, congrats Eagles fans! History made in Philadelphia once again! #America 

Let’s look at the ‘Post-Wentz Eagles’ and the ‘Wentz Era in Indy’ and see who the winners/losers are in this trade when it comes to the fantasy football world. 

Eagles Winners

 Jalen Hurts

Of course Hurts is a winner in this one. He’s now QB1. But that doesn’t necessarily mean everything is good and well with his fantasy value... just yet. The Eagles offensive line was decimated by injuries in 2021. PFF reports that eleven different offensive linemen played at least 50 snaps for Philly in 2020, but they were still, somehow, able to be good enough to be ranked the 19th best offensive line at the end of the year. 

So what does all that mean for Hurts in fantasy? It means he should have more time in the pocket and improve his 64.9% clean-pocket completion rate. The throwing concern for Hurts though comes from Hurts himself. In his 3 full games in 2020 he threw for 330+ yards twice. But he needed a lot of attempts to get there (44, 39), because his completion percentage was under 55% in both games.  However, Hurts' running ability makes him a BUY in fantasy. In his 4 starts in 2020 he was able to finish the year 8th in carries and rush yards, and he scored 3 rushing touchdowns. 

Be ready to draft Hurts, but have a backup plan. 

Miles Sanders

Sanders is a winner for now because I’m just not ready to put him in the ‘loser’ category. So back off! Overall, Sanders had a disappointing fantasy season in 2020. There was hope he would be a PPR hero and he wasn’t. But don’t think Jalen ‘Hurts’ Sanders fantasy value (sorry, had to do it).

Let’s look at what Sanders was able to do while on the field with Hurts in Weeks 14-16. 

The good

Sanders scored 3 touchdowns in those 3 weeks, matching his total touchdowns in his previous 9 weeks. Also, Sanders recorded 4 receptions twice - a number he hadn’t hit since week 3.

The bad

His rushing attempts and targets weren’t too different from when Wentz was in the game. Both numbers aren’t anything to get excited about as a fantasy owner either. Sanders’ season-high in carries was 20 and that came in Week 2. His season high in targets was 8 and that came in Week 3. 

The ugly

 Sanders’ yards per attempt were low in his final two games of the year after his outstanding performance in Week 14 against the Saints. He recorded his 4th and 5th worst Y/A in Weeks 15 and 16 which were against the Cardinals and Cowboys (3.76 & 3.80). Those two teams allowed, respectively, 4.6 and 5.0 Y/A.

Ultimately, we have no clue what Nick Sirianni will do with Sanders, but it can’t be worse than how Pederson handled the RB. 

Eagles Losers

ALL EAGLES RECEIVERS

As previously mentioned, Hurts’ completion percentage is ugly. From every angle. His Red Zone Completion rate and Deep Ball Completion rate are both under 42% and his pressured completion rate was 29.6%. Another unfortunate aspect for his receivers is Hurts didn’t show any favorites through his three full games. Here’s a recap of the fantasy-relevant WR’s in Hurts’ games:

Jalen Reagor - 2/46, 5/49, 3/20

Greg Ward - 2/20, 4/15/2, 2/27

Travis Fulgham - 0/0, 2/30, 2/27

Dallas Goedert - 4/43, 4/39, 3/38

No part of me can sit here and tell you to even consider drafting an Eagles receiver. So proceed with A LOT of caution. Hurts has to improve his accuracy; he’s also a threat to run immediately. Both of those factors don’t bode well for fantasy managers when looking to draft a wide receiver. We can only hope one of these receivers will put up Hollywood Brown-type numbers.   

Colts Winners 

Frank Reich 

There’s no denying the winning culture that Frank Reich has established in Indy since his arrival from Philly. In his first 3 seasons with the Colts, he’s had a 28-20 record, with 2 playoff appearances. Despite Luck’s unexpected retirement, he was forced to go with Jacoby Brissett in 2019, and a 38 year old Phillip Rivers in 2020. In 2021, Reich is now reunited with Wentz, whom he coached to his best statistical season in 2017. Wentz put up MVP-like numbers (3296 yds/33 TD/7 INTS) through 12 games before tearing his ACL. Reich has done a phenomenal job in building a top ranked defense in Indy, and will now attempt to build a top ranked offense. Acquiring Carson Wentz was part one. Can Reich bring him back to his MVP-like form in Indy? I believe so. 

Carson Wentz 

We mentioned Frank Reich as a winner from this trade, but can we take a step back and acknowledge that Wentz is now going to be behind one of the best offensive lines in the game? In 2020, Philip Rivers was sacked 19 times (tied for 28th fewest in the NFL) and hit 32 times (21st fewest) through the 16 regular season games. This offensive line is the anchor of that offense, and will give Wentz time to throw the ball. Not to mention, Wentz will have something he didn't have much of in Philly and that's a run game. Jonathan Taylor ended the year as a strong RB1 and showed defenses they have plenty to be afraid of. Nyhiem Hines is an electrifying change of pace back that can add a lot of complexity to that offense. Lastly, Wentz has been given an opportunity to work with a coach who he has worked with, and seen success. Something tells me Indy may be in for a nice 2021. 

Michael Pittman 

One of the first tweets out of Indy this morning was from Pittman where he stated “Congrats to my new teammate, @cj_wentz cant wait to get to work.'' This should excite all Colts fans. The 2020 2nd Round pick saw limited time on the field, but like other rookies saw his snap% increase as the season went on. Pittman ended his rookie campaign with a 40/503/1TD statline, but with a year under his belt and a new quarterback, I anticipate those numbers increase significantly. Additionally, with the potential departure of Ty Hilton, the WR1 position is up for the taking in Indy, and Pittman is the man to take it. 

Colts Losers  

Jacob Eason 

Jacob Eason drew some early attention in the 2020 draft, and was eventually taken in the 4th round by the Colts. Eason was with Georgia in his first two years of college and eventually transferred to Washington where he put up a respectable 3132 yds/23 TDs/ 8 INTs, before declaring for the draft. There was little preseason chatter around Eason after the draft, which unfortunately carried over to the regular season. Eason was not activated during the regular season, and sat as the Colts QB3 behind Brissett the entire year. There were rumors that he would take over once Rivers retired, however that seems to be a thing of the past. Eason will be at best, Wentz’s backup. If you have room for a stash in your dynasty roster, he may be worth rostering just in case Wentz gets hurt (or gets benched again) but other than that… Dont get your hopes up. 

Nyhiem Hines 

We all know Phillip Rivers loved his check downs and screens! From 2018 - 2020, Phillip Rivers completed 10.8% of checkdowns (2nd to Derek Carr at 11.1%) and Nyhiem Hines was able to benefit from that last year. Hines tied a career high in receptions (63) and had the most receiving TDs (4) in his career with Rivers under center. From 2018-2020, Wentz was on the different end of the spectrum, completing a stunted 4.2% of checkdowns. Throw in the 380 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns that Hines contributed to the Indy rushing attack, and he was able to finish his 2020 campaign as RB#15. With Taylor in complete control of that backfield, and Wentz under center, we may see Hines’s production diminish in 2021.