Indianapolis Colts

Draft Day Drama: Indianapolis Colts

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Draft Day Drama: Indianapolis Colts

By Jonathan Walker

 

 

For several years now the Indianapolis Colts have been playing QB roulette, bringing in Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, and now Gardner Minshew. They released veteran QB Matt Ryan on Tuesday, March 10th, 2023, leaving a void at quarterback yet again. With the 4th overall pick in this year's draft, the Colts look to stop the bleeding by selecting a QB for a change. There are a ton of Mock Drafts that have them selecting Kentucky QB Will Levis. Will Levis is a pocket passer with a rocket for an arm. That’s not all as he has shown he can use his legs to gain yards, making him almost the perfect fit for new Head Coach Shane Steichen.

In his last season in Kentucky, Will Levis threw just over 2,400 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions with a completion of 65.4%. Levis however had -107 rushing yards for 2 TDs. His completion percentage was higher than fellow rookies Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young. Ohio State QB C.J Stroud had a 66.3% completion rating beating Levis by a slim 1.1%. That’s pretty impressive considering Levis lost all of his weapons the year before.

My favorite game from this season is when the Kentucky Wildcats played the Missouri Tigers. Levis threw for 170 yards, 3 touchdowns going 13-19 having a 68.4% completion rating. The Wildcats beat the Tigers 21-17, the reason this is my favorite game for Will Levis is he made several great passes. He was accurate in all zones of the field, did not force too many throws, and was able to read the opposing defense very well. Levis also led the Wildcats on a 4th quarter comeback with about 5:30 left in the game by making a fantastic bullet throw on a 3rd and 11 on his own 22-yard line.

Now for the DRAMA, if the Colts do draft Will Levis who will be their starter? Would they let the 4th overall pick in the NFL draft sit behind Nick Foles or Gardner Minshew? In most cases yes, but I remember the Cardinals trading up to draft QB Josh Rosen in 2018. They regretted that choice almost immediately. In fact, they gave up their 1st, 3rd, and 5th round picks just to move up five spots. Rosen then started 13 games and went 3-10 his rookie season having only 11 touchdowns but 14 interceptions.

On the other hand, drafting a QB in the top 5 can be positive for the team. Look back at 2012 when the Colts drafted Andrew Luck. He threw for 4,734 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions with a 54.1% completion rating. Luck also rushed for 255 yards and 5 touchdowns his rookie season, winning 11 games for the Colts which is the 3rd most wins by a rookie. Luck went 53-33 during his career before he unexpectedly retired at the age of 29. The Colts can only hope Will Levis can do the same thing for them, just not retire at a young age.

 

Fantasy Impact

With the Colts coming off a 4-12-1 season and bringing in a new Head Coach Shane Steichen, he will certainly look to make an immediate impact on the team. Bringing in a young talented player like Will Levis who could be that impact he’s looking for.

The way Levis can read defenses and make a pass in almost any tight window could be impressive to Steichen. The Head Coach-QB combo could quickly become one like the Eagles have. Last season Steichen lead the Eagles to have the #3 NFL offense in yards per game (389) and points per game (28). He was also able to lead them to be a top 5 rushing offense in the NFL, they were also able to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns all season (32).

If Shane Steichen can make Will Levis the Colt's new Franchise QB, then both of them should make that immediate impact on the offense. The Colts would have a chance to put up numbers mirroring that of the Eagles from this past season. The impact that would have for pass catchers Michael Pittman, Isaiah McKenzie, Kylen Granson, and Jelani Woods could be a huge boost for their fantasy owners. If the Levis pick is made I would certainly look to buy Michael Pittman if I could get him at a good deal. If you could get Granson, Jelani, and/or McKenzie for cheap right now, the reward could be well worth it.

AFC South Predictions

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AFC South Predictions for 2022

by Tim Lazenby

 

Now that the schedule for the 2022 NFL season is out, I thought it would be fun to predict how these teams would be for this upcoming season.  These predictions are based on previous results, byes and straight up gut feelings.  Although some results are not surprising, I was shocked at some of these predictions.

 

Houston Texans

Record in 2021: 4-13-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 3-13-1

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Texans have made improvements to be sure, especially on defense, but they still have work to do.  The offensive weapons aren’t completely lacking, but the explosion, particularly on the ground, is still missing.  Davis Mills still needs time to develop and until he is protected more, it’s going to be a while.  As much as I love Brandin Cooks, he can’t do everything for the Texans anymore.

 

Situation to watch

Like I mentioned before, I really need to see some explosion in the running game.  Highly anticipated draftee, Dameon Pierce will be one to watch and we’ll have to see if Marlon Mack still has gas left in the tank.  The Texans haven’t instilled fear into the opposition at running back for a while now and this needs to be happen soon.

 

Conclusion

I truly believed in my heart that the Texans were due for an improvement, albeit a slight one in 2022.  Upon looking at the schedule, I guess that isn’t the case.  I only see them winning one game in their division, making the mountain all the more higher to climb.  A prediction of basement dwelling is upon us.

 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Record in 2021: 9-8-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 12-5-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

It’s obvious that the biggest weapon is phenom Jonathan Taylor, but we can’t forget that this team is stacked from top to bottom.  Utilizing an underrated defense, and sneaky good receivers, they’ll improve greatly from 2022.  The only worry is that their fifth starting quarterback in as many years may not get up to speed right away, even though it is Matt Ryan.  Just remember the 37 year old isn’t the same guy who played in Super Bowl LI.

 

Situation to watch

Although many people have their focus on Matt Ryan, I am actually more excited to see how Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue do in Indianapolis.  They are two of the quieter acquisitions this offseason for players of their caliber.  I am also anxious to see what happens with Xavier Rhodes.  He may not be the same caliber as he was years ago in Minnesota, but he can’t still help if he stays.

 

Conclusion

It’s probably not shocking for most to see such an assessment.  While the Colts started strong in 2021, which should be repeated, I don’t see the rapid decline that happened at the end of last season.  There was a lot of hate coming Carson Wentz’s way, but now the Colts have no excuse.  Indianapolis is poised to lead the division in 2022.

 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record in 2021: 3-14-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The defense for the Jaguars was appalling last season.  Management went and grabbed two studs in the draft to address this.  Shad Khan also opened the vault this offseason, signing many offensive pieces to help Lawrence.  Let’s not forget that Jacksonville will get a healthy Travis Etienne moving forward.  I do worry about the newest signings not being game breakers.  Depth is great, but monster starters are also needed.

 

Situation to watch

Above anything else, I'm sure I’m not alone in my curiosity toward Doug Pederson’s second stint at coaching.  With Urban Meyers setting a garbage fire last season, it will be interesting to see what the former Super Bowl winning coach does to address the situation in Jacksonville.  I always thought Pederson was unjustly let go, so we’ll see if he proves me right.

 

Conclusion

I am possibly the most bullish non Jaguars fan in the world with my prediction for 2022.  The four road wins I am seeing them accomplish next season certainly helps more than anything for Trevor Lawrence and company.  And although I said it before, A healthy Etienne should make a world of difference for the Jags in 2022.

 

 

Tennessee Titans

Record in 2021: 12-5-0

Predicted Record in 2022: 9-8-0

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Even at 28 years old, Derrick Henry continues to defy Father Time.  His impact as a true smasher can’t be understated and there is a threat at all times that he is on the field.  Boasting fantastic health before last season, there is a slight worry his body won’t be as resilient moving forward.  The team is going to have to adjust for the eventual transition that needs to take place.

 

Situation to watch

.The chalky answer is the one I’m going with here. WIth AJ Brown now playing for the Eagles, the Titans now focus on other faces.  Although the entire receiver room isn’t new, Robert Woods and Treylon Burks will be very interesting to watch.  Will Robert Woods be the same man after the injury?  And will Treylon Burks be able to fill Brown’s shoes moving forward?  Only time will tell and I’m excited to see the results.

 

Conclusion

It’s not that the Titans are worse than they were in 2021, it’s more that other teams have gotten better.  I see a few teams that they would have beaten in 2021 rising about them in 2022.  The departure of AJ Brown should also rock the boat a bit when it comes to their success.  That being said, I don’t see the Titans being down for long.

Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

By Bob Miller

 

As the NFL Draft approaches, dynasty owners wait with anticipation to see where these rookies end up. Where does Breece Hall end up.. how about Malik Willis? There are so many questions yet to be answered. One question that everyone seems to know the answer to is “Who is the overall RB1 in dynasty?” Jonathan Taylor seems to be the unanimous answer to that question, but I have my doubts. I know that may seem crazy, but here me out. It's obvious that buying Jonathan Taylor seems like a no-brainer. Not only am I going to give you some reasons to buy JT, but I'm going to give you some reasons to actually sell him as well.

 

 

Age

Taylor is entering his age 23 season and has his whole future ahead of him. Any educated Dynasty League owner knows that a running backs' dynasty value doesn't last very long. The younger the better. It seems that around that age 26-27 season is when we start seeing issues such as a declining skill set that results in the drafting of a younger, cheaper running back. The biggest issue as of late is their large cap number. Past stud running backs with these possible issues include Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. All of them could be traded or outright released this next offseason. With all that being said, it makes Jonathan Taylor worth that much more in dynasty.

 

Touches and Durability

Taylor is an unquestioned workhorse running back, which is rare these days. Some fantasy analysts had strong concerns that his usage in college would affect his performance/durability in the NFL. So far, those analysts have been wrong. In fact, last season Taylor had 372 total touches that included 332 carries and 40 receptions. His durability is not an issue as he has only missed one game in his two seasons so far. The sky could be the limit with Taylor running behind that elite offensive line in Indianapolis. You can plug him in as your RB1 for the next couple of seasons with very little concern. You can’t say that about many running backs these days.

 

 

 

Worst RB1 since 2015

This past season Taylor finished at 22.54 fantasy points per game.. the worst overall RB1 numbers since Devonta Freeman in 2015. Derrick Henry actually averaged 26.92 fantasy points per game last season before going down with his injury. In 2020 Taylor would have finished 4th behind McCaffrey, Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. Listen.. I’m not saying he stinks, but in PPR leagues, he just isn’t the unanimous RB1 to me. Although he should be a lock for 20 fantasy points a game, we could see Henry, McCaffrey, and Dalvin finishing ahead of him this coming season. Since this in dynasty, I still have JT ranked ahead of all three of those guys. With that being said, I can see a players like Najee Harris, Cam Akers, or Javonte Williams taking claim as the overall RB1 in PPR Dynasty this time next season.

 

Selling Price

With Taylor ranked as the dynasty RB1, it makes me wonder what I can get for him. That hype and dynasty ranking makes him more valuable than he may actually be. Why not dangle him out there and see if you can get a king’s ransom in exchange. I haven’t seen him move much in dynasty, however I have seen some incredible returns in the deals that I have seen. Just yesterday I saw Taylor traded for McCaffrey, Kelce, and Deebo Samuel. I’d take that all day. He was traded in another dynasty league I’m in for JK Dobbins, two mid 1sts, a 2nd, and a 2023 1st. Um.. yes please! After seeing these returns, I absolutely encourage you to see what kind of haul you can get for Taylor.

 

I’ve said this a million times.. I’m a businessman when it comes to dynasty. Not one player of mine is ever “off-limits”. I’m always in the business of making a profit when the opportunity presents itself. With that being said, don't trade Jonathan Taylor just for the sake of making a trade. We all have one of those guys in our leagues haha. Shop Taylor to see what you can get, and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. You’re not married to these guys, and everything can change with a snap of the finger, ask Christian McCaffrey owners. There is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping Taylor, as he should be a steady top 3-5 dynasty RB for the next few years. However if someone offers you the moon, smash the accept button.

 

 

You can follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBobFF

AFC South Best Values

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AFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Now that we’re knee deep into the off season, many of us are looking for any taste of fantasy football relevance whatsoever.  A wise dynasty manager, however, needs more than just a taste to satisfy their football hunger pains.  We, as managers, should always be looking to improve our ever evolving fantasy franchises.  Whether you are trying to get out of the basement, finally be a playoff contender or even repeat as champion, the common thread is that a winning manager doesn’t sit on his riches.  And in this crucial time before the NFL Entry Draft, you should be looking at value players to add to your team.  Today, let’s dive into the best values for each team in the AFC South.

 

Houston Texans: Quarterback – Davis Mills

What a whirlwind it’s been for the Houston Texans.  The drama of Deshaun Watson seemed to have overtaken every aspect of the team’s story, but now that Watson has moved on with the Cleveland Browns, we can finally think about anything else in Houston.  The situation is quite dire on the outside, but if we dig a little deeper, there are diamonds covered in coal dust.  There weren’t many players last season as unrecognized for their efforts as Davis Mills.  Even with all the drama, haters, and lack of weapons, Davis Mills quietly put together a nice rookie season.

It must have been crazy for Mills.  Here you are, drafted to a team with seemingly no chance to play, and suddenly, you are thrust into the limelight with fantasy and real life fans alike demanding greatness.  Anyone who says the Houston Texans skilled players are near the bottom of the league aren’t wrong, but even with them, Davis Mills actually performed better than most think.  There are obvious differences, but under a more stringent microscope, Mills compares closer to fellow rookie, Mac Jones.  You also have to discount Mills’ first six games where he got booed by his own fans for not being named Deshaun Watson.  As the season grew, Mills did more with so little than most other quarterbacks.  Moving forward, he’s not a top tier QB1, but he’s surely got a shot at being a decent, dependable QB2.  The price is right for picking.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Wide Receiver – Parris Campbell

There was a time when the name Parris Campbell brought nothing but excitement.  In 2019, the Indianapolis Colts took Campbell as the seventh wide receiver off the board and for many, he was a total steal.  In his senior year, he absolutely exploded from his norm and this was what many thought was just things to come.  At the NFL level, however, he’s yet to show anything close to those “true colors”.  He’s also been injured each and every year.  Most critics have already written him off, but I think there’s a world in which Parris Campbell still holds value.

Admittedly, the exodus of Carson Wentz was somewhat shocking to me.  I knew that there was a chance, but with what the Colts invested to get him, I was sure it was too soon to cut him loose.  Once I saw the Matt Ryan move, it all made sense.  And, this is the same reason why moving for Parris Campbell makes sense.  Matt Ryan ain’t no spring chicken, as they say, but he’s far from done.  Now in a strong system, with tons of support, we’ll see something closer to the Matt Ryan of old.  While everyone feigns for Michael Pittman like they always should have, everyone will forget about the forgettable Parris Campbell.  After Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan will turn to someone and I believe it will be Campbell; who’s essentially free in most leagues.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Tight End – Evan Engram

I have to confess something.  I’ve been an Evan Engram truther since I rostered him in his historic rookie season.  He was nothing short of amazing and when I say, “historic”, I’m not exaggerating.  In his rookie season, not only did he score six times, which is incredible as a rookie tight end, but he also had the 7th most receiving yards of all time.  And while I still love to watch him, I had to come to the realization that his rookie season was a fluke and he’ll always be injured or underutilized or both.  That was, until he came to Jacksonville.

While I still have faith in Daniel Jones, I have even more faith in Trevor Lawrence.  The Clemson product is elite, despite what people are saying because of his rookie season.  Jacksonville is doing what they can to build around him and Evan Engram will suit him nicely.  The receiving core isn’t among the league’s best and Etienne hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, so Lawrence will need a good safety valve to rely on.  Many managers will be coveting Dan Arnold, so there will be many opportunities to trade for Engram for next to nothing.  There’s a chance that Engram’s elite days are over, but I’m willing to try one last time in this better situation and price.

Tennessee Titans: Wide Receiver – Robert Woods

The Tennessee Titans featured one of the best receiving corps in football last season.  AJ Brown is a top three dynasty wideout for many and Julio Jones is absolutely legendary.  The depth is also fantastic with so many young options to choose from.  But, it’s almost criminal how that team couldn’t make Julio Jones shine in his only season away from the Atlanta Falcons.  I know there were injuries, but it was just insane how strongly the regression took place.  Now that he’s gone, the Titans turn to former Rams stud, Robert Woods.

While Robert Woods is no Julio Jones in his prime, he is a fantastic number two under AJ Brown.  He’s a perfect example of how to succeed in a shared receiver offense as he did it with Cooper Kupp for many years.  And while he’s not young, at 29, Woods still has lots of time to prove he’s still got it after last year’s injury.  Derrick Henry can’t be the entire offense anymore and this will force the ball to others, like Robert Woods.  We also can’t forget that Robert Woods looked so good catching balls from the likes of Jared Goff.  No disrespect to Goff, but Tannehill has to be considered an upgrade by many.  Acquire him at a WR4 cost and watch him blossom as a low end WR2 with upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby