Green Bay Packers

Dynasty Dilemmas: Allen Lazard

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Dynasty Dilemmas: Allen Lazard

By Tim Lazenby

 

The days of the Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams connection is a thing of the past and it leaves Packers and fantasy football fans scrambling to find the answer moving forward.  And while losing who some consider the best wide receiver in the league is a massive blow, the four time MVP is still there running the show.  So someone or a combination of players are sure to continue to feast in 2022 and beyond.  Predicting the WR1 in Green Bay is no easy task, but it’s our job as competent fantasy football managers to do just that.  In the beginning of the off season, it was Allen Lazard SZN, but now pundits are less than sure.  So, what do you do with Allen Lazard moving forward in dynasty?

 

The situation is eerie in many ways in Green Bay.  Losing Davante Adams was one of the single biggest losses to any team this offseason.  And while it’d be straight up assinine to suggest any one player could fill his shoes, the show must go on.  But even the most iron willed and uber Cheese Headed faithful have to admit there are massive question marks surrounding Allen Lazard.  It can be completely rational just to wash your hands of him as a fantasy manager, especially in dynasty.

 

His Value as the “WR1” When Being Sold

Even if you’re into Allen Lazard as the true top dog for A-Rod, you have to admit the value in offloading the WR1 in Green Bay.  For years, Aaron Rodgers has made the top receiving option for his team nearly matchup proof.  Week in and week out, you can depend on top numbers to lead your team to a victory.  Yes, I am fully aware that no one replaces Davante, but this is  Aaron freakin’ Rodgers we’re talkin’ ‘bout here!  The man makes magic happen; plain and simple.  The defense is still elite too, so you know that offense will continue to be on the field serving up points on a silver platter.  Someone is sure to pay up for it in one of your leagues.

Listen, I know not everyone is a believer in Allen Lazard as the answer moving forward, and if you feel that way, you’re not alone.  But make no mistake; there are others who feel differently.  It doesn’t matter who Aaron Rodgers has.  He will dominate and his WR1 will too.  Strike while the coals are hot and get value for Lazard while you can.  As the second option, Lazard did very well in 2021.  So you can only imagine how he’d be as the first option.  Just use your “used car salesman” vibes here.

New Dogs in the Fight and Devastating Backfield

Everyone loves shiny new toys.  And for the first time in his career that I can remember, it seems as though Aaron Rodgers does too.  I can’t recall a time where he was anything close to buddy-buddy with rookie receivers, but he seems to like Romeo Doubs.  Let’s also not forget the value of 34th overall pick, Christian Watson.  Watson is on the mend currently, but he won’t be forever.  In redraft the additions of these two is not as devastating to Lazard, but it dynasty this is quite troubling to the value of his stock.  New dogs are nipping at the heels and Lazard’s spot at the top is in jeopardy.

Let’s not forget that the Packers also have one of the best running back tandems in the entire league.  With no Davante Adams, the changing of the guard isn’t so simple.  It’s easy to assume that a receiver will just take the targets, but perhaps Rodgers will spread it around to two of the better receiving backs in the league.  Even with Davante, Jones still topped 60 receptions in each of the past three seasons.  And although he only amassed 37 targets in his first full season, AJ Dillon caught all but 3.  He certainly makes it harder for Rodgers to throw elsewhere when he’s on the field.

 

It’s completely normal to have doubts about Allen Lazard, but the flip side of the coin is equally as compelling.  For all the doubters and haters, this provides an excellent opportunity for the believers and the gamblers.  Aaron Rodgers’ top option has never been cheaper, so the appeal on Lazard is definitely there.  Right now in drafts, Allen Lazard is going at 118.8 in dynasty ADP on Sleeper.  As the 51st WR off the board, he’s going well behind injured teammate, Christian Watson, who hasn’t even played a snap.  And even if you are in a league that has already drafted, this should tell you all you need to know about his value in dynasty.  The price is worth the gamble.

 

Underrated in 2021

It’s easy to get lost with names like Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on offense if you play for the Packers.  But, in case you didn’t know, Allen Lazard performed quite admirably in many categories despite having to share the ball so much on this high powered offense.  And as a WR2, there aren’t many players who performed nearly as well while maintaining the lack of love from the dynasty community as Allen Lazard did in 2021.

Despite Davante Adams on the team, Allen Lazard finished 10th in the entire league in touchdowns inside the ten at wide receiver.  Aaron Rodgers also had a 132.8 passer rating when targeting Allen Lazard.  Lazard also cut his drops down by four from 2020 despite having his targets rise by over 30%.  With Devante Adams leaving, along with a couple others, there are over 240 targets up for grabs and Lazard is sure to get a ton of them coming his way.

 

The History of Aaron Rodgers’ Top Receivers

Since Aaron Rodgers took over the helm for the Packers in 2008, he has been a man possessed.  But it’s important to note that his four top receiver’s success was not instantaneous.  While it’s true he was a beast for years, it took until Jordy Nelson’s fourth season to break out as the alpha.  And although Randall Cobb’s second season was fantastic, he regressed quickly the next season.  In truth, it took until year four for Cobb to be fully trusted by A-Rod.  James Jones’ rookie season went very well, but he wasn’t an actual starter until season six.  And even though Davante Adams was dominant from day one, he wasn’t in the best of the league echelon discussions until arguably year three or more likely year four.

While it remains to be seen if Lazard, or anyone on the current roster will hit the numbers these men did, there will be fantasy success in 2022 and beyond for the Packers at wide receiver.  The good and bad news, depending on your perspective, is that in dynasty it sometimes takes time to reap the benefits of a blossoming talent.  If you’re going to gamble on a player, there are a few viable options, but the one to give the most instant success is statistically most likely to be Allen Lazard.  Aaron Rodgers is also not one to have a receiver flourish only to be replaced quickly.  So, once you’re at the top with A-Rod, you’ve got a good chance of staying there.

 

Let’s face it.  No receiver in that room is truly proven, but of the bunch, Lazard is the best bet.  It’s not the prettiest of choices, but the price you’ll have to pay alone makes this an easy one for me.  Pair to that his rapport that is already established, if you’re going for a piece of that receiving room, it makes the most sense to go for Allen Lazard.  While it’s true that I like the talent of Christian Watson more, he’s also very cheap right now due to the injury, so if I have room, why not get both on my squad?

Are you really going to be the guy who passed on Aaron Rodgers’ cheapest top receiver in dynasty?  Can you look yourself in the face every morning when you know that Billy, the guy you just can’t stand in your league, has Allen Lazard on his team at a cheaper than reasonable price.  Can you let Billy, with his smug little face, have that win in his back pocket while you cry into your cereal in 2022?  Don’t make that mistake.  Make Billy pay.  Get Allen Lazard on the right team: your team.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

NFC North Predictions for 2022

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NFC North Predictions for 2022

By Tim Lazenby

When it comes to the one division in the NFL with the most history, we look no further than the NFC North.  Featuring three of the oldest five franchises in the entire league, there’s always a story unfolding and a legend continuing.  Let’s take a look at the most storied franchise in the NFL and try to predict how they’ll do in 2022.

Chicago Bears

Record in 2021: 6-11-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 7-10-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

It’s hard to look at the Chicago Bears and not feel some sort of optimism.  Brimming with youth, players like Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are ready to take that next step.  I do worry about that defense, who was already near the bottom last season even before the departures of key cogs Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan and Khalil Mack.

Situation to Watch

Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus arrive in Chicago this off season with a big task ahead of them.  For way too long now, the Bears haven’t lived up to the name of “Da Bears” that fans know and love.  It will be curious to see how the wrongs will be righted by this duo moving forward with this squad.  One thing is for sure, the McCaskey’s have done what they can to ensure the success of the franchise moving forward.

Conclusion

While I see the light at the end of the tunnel, we’re certainly not there yet.  David Montgomery has been a largely unregarded hero of this squad but he needs help.  For the team to succeed, Justin Fields simply has to take charge.  With no first round pick this off season, we may just have to wait until next year for this team to bear fruit come playoff time.

Detroit Lions

Record in 2021: 3-13-1  

Predicted Record in 2022: 7-10-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Detroit Lions offense runs through the air.  D’Andre Swift is one of the best pass catching backs in the game today and TJ Hockenson is thrilling at tight end.  Adding DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams should make this team even better.  But with all these players struggling to stay on the field, the risk of injury is rampant.

There’s no chance of winning if your best players are in suits and ties.

Situation to Watch

Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson and Penei Sewell make up one of the best quartets in the league among offensive lines.  We, however, can’t overlook the season Halapoulivaati Vaitai had last year.  Switching from tackle to guard and struggling with injuries last year, he is the last piece of the puzzle on this offensive line that could be near the top of the league.  Goff’s success depends on it.

Conclusion

With only two double digit win seasons since 1995, the Lions haven't given their fans what they deserved.  GM Brad Holmes has wasted no time putting his stamp on this team.  Trading away franchise face Matthew Stafford was a necessary evil, but it stings nonetheless.  I see a big improvement from the Lions this year provided we see more of 2017/2018 Goff rather than 2021 Goff.

Green Bay Packers

Record in 2021: 13-4-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 10-7-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Although I disagree, some consider Aaron Rodgers the best to play the game.  You have to wonder though if he’ll remain just as magical without Devante Adams in the fold.  I know he’s played without him before, but going from Devante Adams to Allen Lazard is quite a steep dropoff.  We all have to hope that Christian Watson can replicate even a portion of the production lost from Adams in his reuniting with Derek Carr.

Situation to Watch

I am looking forward to watching Aaron Rodgers play football: plain and simple.  Whether it be his feud with general manager Brian Gutekunst that took headlines in 2020 or his retirement drama that overtook this entire offseason, I’ve had enough.  No more drama, no more storylines, just show us the magic on the field; however that may unfold.

Conclusion

Like I said before, the loss of Devante Adams can’t be understated.  Although the Packers should still win the division next season, it won’t be in the usual juggernaut style that they’ve become accustomed to.  Matt Lafleur will fall well short of his routine 13 win mark and questions will need to be addressed for 2023 and beyond.

Minnesota Vikings

Record in 2021: 8-9-0  

Predicted Record in 2022: 8-9-0

Strengths and Weaknesses

Minnesota features one of the best air/ground combo in the entire league.  Dalvin Cook is elite, and while Adam Thielen and KJ Osborne are fantastic, Justin Jefferson is out of this world.  But I can’t help but wonder what has happened to this elite defense last season.  The marque names are still there, but something isn’t gelling anymore.  For any chance in this division, newly anointed defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has his work cut out for him.

Situation to Watch

In a world of incentive based contracts, how was it that Kirk Cousins, of all people, landed a second consecutive fully guaranteed contract?  I’m not saying Cousins is bad, but he’s certainly not on a list of names you’d figure could accomplish the feat.  He has to show more to not be jeered by pundits and fans alike.  This time cannot afford to be a middle of the pack one anymore.

Conclusion

I see yet another 500-ish season for the Vikings.  The talent is there, but the application just isn’t happening.  I also fear that Minnesota just can’t get it done unless they have a different quarterback.  In a world where you have Justin Jefferson, you simply must do whatever you can to utilize his talents to their fullest potential.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

NFC North Best Values

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NFC North Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

One of the biggest issues plaguing fantasy football managers is a lack of knowledge on tough decisions to be made.  Sure, the experienced, knowledgeable and savvy of us out there know what to do or at least have an inkling of what to do moving forward into the off season, but there are many out there who struggle with what to do when the season is done.  This off season, instead of sitting idle or, even worse, making terrible decisions, look for the best possible values to seek out.  The elite options are too expensive and many flier options have too much uncertainty.  Here is a player from each team in the NFC North that should be drafted or traded for due to their substantial dynasty value.

 

Chicago Bears: Tight End – Cole Kmet

Much like Kenneth Gainwell, Cole Kmet is the other player I simply have to acquire everywhere if at all possible.  But even more than Gainwell, Cole Kmet is a must have prize piece as the tight end position is almost as maddening as the kicker, (if you’re crazy enough to play with them).  A great source of frustration for many managers, it’s feast or famine at tight end, save the elite few.  So, finding a tight end at a discount is essential to a fantasy championship caliber team, and I think this rings even truer in dynasty.

It’s glaringly apparent to me, but in case that isn’t ringing true for you, Cole Kmet is arguably the best value in the entire league.  I preached the absolute need to acquire him as the gospel truth in the dynasty dilemma I wrote, if you want more detail.  The situation is perfect, his age is divine and the skill set is incredible, so why isn’t everyone and their mom aching to acquire such a talent?  One main reason is that the average person doesn’t have the knowledge on how to find great tight ends.  The other is the fact that Cole Kmet scored exactly zero touchdowns last season.  Touchdowns are the most volatile statistic in the fantasy game, so take that with a grain of salt.  If you are ever going to listen to my ravings, this is the one you can take to the bank.

 

Detroit Lions: Quarterback – Jared Goff

I don’t believe there are many who are excited about the former first overall pick.  The name Jared Goff doesn’t bring inspiration and desire to most fans, regular and fantasy alike.  And looking at the team overall, it’s not one that most people have penciled in for success.  The problem is that the argument that Jared Goff is trash is simply not logical.  It’s a thought process based entirely on emotion.  Whether you just don’t get excited by the apparent lackluster play or there is some hateful notion from real life fanhood, we have to keep our heads about us as fantasy managers.

It’s quite irrational, because everyone knows just how good of a pass catcher D’Andre Swift is.  Many have him crowned as a top three option in dynasty among running backs.  It’s also no secret just how good TJ Hockenson is.  And many have high hopes for Amon-Ra St. Brown, albeit it’s a mixed jury.  If all are so good, how can the quarterback do so poorly?  Now, I’m not saying that Jared Goff will ever be a bonafide game breaker, but as most people are playing superflex, getting a quarterback, even a number two is not cheap.  There is a chance that Detroit goes after a quarterback in the draft, but even if Goff is only around one more season as a starter, at his price, he’ll do nicely as a temporary fix.  And if he does get traded, he can’t be dead at only 27 years old.

 

Green Bay Packers: Wide Receiver – Amari Rodgers

Since Matt Lafleur came to town, the Green Bay Packers have won 13 games each and every season.  It’s no small feat in today’s NFL to achieve such a standard with parity being what it is.  Moving forward into next season, I’m sure that trend will not continue.  Finding talent on the Packers’ squad in fantasy is not impossible, but most of the talent is priced too highly to get a good value.  Sure, you can go for Aaron Jones as he’s getting older and AJ Dillon is emerging, but in dynasty, we want more of a long term solution if we can help it.

As both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have moved on from the team, it begs the question as to whom Aaron Rodgers will be throwing to.  I think most have tagged Alan Lazard as the top bet for most targets, but I’m sure Rodgers will be throwing to more than he and Aaron Jones.  So, we have to turn to someone else.  I say, have a little faith in the other A. Rodgers.  Amari Rodgers has done admirably as a kick returner and although he hasn’t seen the opportunity really outside of special teams, he’s the one I’m most excited about.  Any receiver catching from A-Rod is worthy of a gamble.  And even though he’s unproven, this makes Amari Rodgers the best value on the Packers.

 

Minnesota Vikings: Running Back – Alexander Mattison

Much like Chuba Hubbard, Alexander Mattison is stuck behind one of the league’s most elite workhorses.  Dalvin Cook reigns supreme on the ground in Minnesota and I don’t believe he has plans of stopping that trend any time soon.  The Vikings also have who some consider the pass receiving tandem in the league in Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen.  The depth is also one of the best in the league at wide receiver.  So with so many hurdles to overcome for his success, Alexander Mattison will have a difficult time shining right now.  But in dynasty, however, this situation is ideal for grabbing him at his current value.

Again, similar to Hubbard, Mattison is in a situation where he is behind an oft injured running back.  And Mattison shares another similarity to Hubbard, as Mattison performed well in his time as the temporary starter.  I do see less of a chance of Dalvin Cook’s workload going down, but I also see more of a chance of long term value in such a good system.  While Mattison’s value may not ring true immediately save a Cook injury, the long term potential is too good at his current discounted value.  If you’re looking for value on the Minnesota Vikings, look no further than running back, Alexander Mattison.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC North 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

Welcome back! We now head North as we finish our tour of the NFC! This division will revolve around one primary theme: QB quality. But before we travel North, below is the foundation of the team breakdown by division series.

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Green Bay Packers

I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB. Aaron Rodgers makes this offense a BUY. He is still among the league’s best and his presence can open up the running game which will open up throwing lanes which will open up the running game which will open up the throwing…Rodgers is good!

QB Aaron Rodgers: Low-QB1, 3-4% auction, round 10, Rodgers continues to be a QB1 IRL and for fantasy. Since I believe a team’s overall fantasy outlook begins with the QB, I will be getting him a lot if his ADP stays where it is. I love him in the Key & Peele sketch but I love him more on the field and on my rosters.

RB Aaron Jones: RB2 14-15% auction, late round 2, Jones exploded with 19 TDs last year. I see that number going down enough to benefit Rodgers more but still not enough to have me shy away from drafting him. Lead back in a good offense, should have plenty of scoring upside, QB play open will open up running game.

RB AJ Dillon: RB 5, 3-4% auction, round 13, Packers drafted him in the 2nd, raised some eye brows at the time, but this thicc and highly productive college RB is a backup worth rostering. His thighs have been the highlight of GB training camp…can we please get to the games already?!

RB Jamaal Williams: RB 5-6, deep PPR target, $1, last round/priority FA, has been productive when given the chance, this now crowded backfield, mainly made up of Dillon’s thighs, now hurts Williams upside a bit. Worth keeping an eye on!

WR Davante Adams: WR1, 20-21% auction, late round 1-early round 2, this target machine will continue to have Rodgers’ eye. Easy to imagine that he can lead the NFL in targets.

WR Allen Lazard: WR 5, 1-2% auction, round 14, as of now I believe he is the clear WR2, and amazing upside can be had if he is the bottom of your bench. At that cost you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. WR-Marquez Valdes-Scantling, priority FA, has flashed but should only be rostered in the deepest of leagues right now.

TE Jace Sternberger: TE2, $1 deep auction, priority FA, this breakout candidate is now healthy and longer in Jimmy Graham’s shadow. Keep an eye out!

Detroit Lions

The QB theme is clear in this division: if the QB has (or doesn’t have) real life and fantasy upside then I am targeting (fading) those players. The Lions remain NEUTRAL with Stafford leading the way with a very nice duo of WRs, a TE on the rise, and a backfield with upside.

QB Matthew Stafford, QB1, 3% auction, round 10-11, huge arm and nice weapons is a nice cocktail for fantasy intrigue. Best ball target!

RB D’Andre Swift: RB 3, 7-8% auction, round 7 is ideal, at one point in time Swift could have been considered the top RB prospect of his class. If you are a believer, you will be happy to see the dynamic group he was drafted with push down his value. Questions of committee usage linger. Difference maker in college, he could really boom with Stafford

RB Kerryon Johnson: RB4, 5-6% auction, round 9, looking to be splitting duties with Swift; Kerryon limitations have nothing to do with his talent but everything with his game day availability. I’m excited to get one of the two on my rosters!

WRs Kenny Golladay: (WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3) and Marvin Jones (WR3, 5-6% auction, round 8) are an excellent duo! I’m happy to roster either one. Golladay looks to further excel his gameplay and Jones is always a deep ball and TD threat, I’d be aggressive with him in Best Ball. WR Amendola deep PPR league target.

TE TJ Hockenson: High-TE2 with TE1 upside, 2-3% auction, round 13, he would be a full on TE1 if his ankle concerns weren’t lingering, but they are. Tons of upside but I would look to draft or stream another TE if he isn’t 100% to start the year. He may be fine still but would exercise caution.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings continue to play as an “old school” team. Gary Kubiak is the new OC and with a young TE on the rise and adding a 1st round WR, the Vikings are a Neutral offensive core with players primarily draftable at ADP. 2 Ladder Picks incoming…

QB Kirk Cousins: QB2 priority FA, $1 deep auction, the QB position is so deep that Cousins is undraftable in 12 team standard rule leagues. Having nice weapons in a good offensive make him intriguing as a bye week/injury replacement.

RB Dalvin Cook: “Ladder Pick” RB1, 25-27% auction, round 1, Dalvin is my RB4 and 4th overall player. The Vikings offense will go through him as HC Mike Zimmer look to run the ball, play good defense and limit TOs with efficient passing (like with passes to Cook). Volume!

RB Alexander Mattison: RB4-5, 2-3%, round 12, Dalvin Cook’s injury history made Mattison an extremely appealing asset in drafts last year. Cook kept him irrelevant. If Cook were to miss time he is the backup worth rostering.

WR Adam Thielen: “Ladder Pick”, WR1, 16-17% auction, round 3, one of my favorite players now stands alone as the top dog in this receiver corps. He will be an absolute target machine. OC Gary Kubiak has a stout history of feeding his WR1 targets. Volume!

WR Justin Jefferson: WR 4-5, 2-3% auction, the Vikings 1st round pick looks to fill big shoes with Stefon Diggs out of town. He comes into the season with a chip on his shoulder from the NFL draft being vocal about his displeasure becoming the 5th WR drafted. He will look to make the teams who passed on him sorry. Vikings got a steal and now have a highly motivated player. Buy!

TE Irv Smith Jr.: TE2, priority FA for starter injury/bye week replacement, Big buy for dynasty, TE Kyle Rudolph is still around, keep an eye out in deep leagues

Chicago Bears

In the NFL QB is king, so this offensive core will be a FADE for me this season. QB play limitations and a good defense could be a recipe for QB game managers and controlling the clock. Of course this is an over-generalization but Trusbisky under center doesn’t excite me.

QB Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles: We aren’t drafting these QBs, but I prefer Nick Foles to Trubisky at this point of their careers. I really like the idea of Mitch Trubisky but inconsistent execution has soured his outlook.

This is a shame because he has a nice duo of WRs in Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, and unique Swiss Army knife in Tarik Cohen that have their potential capped. These players are preferred with Foles under center.

RB David Montgomery: Low-RB2 (robust WR or elite TE), high-RB3, 10-12% auction, round 6, disappointing rookie campaign has lowered his cost, post-hype sleeper with upside. If he is your RB2, I would make RB a priority for the next 2-3 rounds after drafting him. Fingers crossed for a more efficient season.

RB Tarik Cohen: Low-RB3 while going robust WR, 5-6% auction, round 9, this zeroRB target is best utilized in PPR formats. A very unique player that has great pass catching upside.

WR Allen Robinson: Low-WR1, high-WR2, 13-14%, round 3, love the player, amazing talent, but has terrible QBs throwing him the ball for his entire career, including this year. Highly preferable to have Foles be the one throwing him the ball.

He is essentially QB proof but considering the other WRs that are drafted around him, I typically look elsewhere. He is exceptional but the offense is a FADE that is why I prefer to get him at a value rather than at ADP.

WR Anthony Miller: WR4-5, 3-4% auction, round 12, an excellent complimentary receiver opposite Robinson, a great value late in drafts being an offenses’ 2nd WR. He is one of the first players I look to add into my draft queue.

The Bears are a team with 27 TEs (only 7, actually) and none of them draftable. Cole Kmet is an intriguing prospect for dynasty. Old TE favorite Jimmy Graham is worth keeping on your radar especially if Nick Foles is the QB.