George Pickens

Dynasty Dilemma: George Pickens

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Dynasty Dilemma

 George Pickens 

 

George Pickens, a first-round talent, but then, questions about his character, and a season-ending ACL injury in his senior year, caused him to slip down the draft board.  Selected in the second round, 52nd overall in the 2022 NFL draft. George Pickens is a polarizing player known for his big-time plays and contested catches. It is rare for a  week to go by without seeing one of those highlight reel grabs. Pickens, is a real boom-or-bust player who has the fantasy community split over his future outlook. It is hard not to be captivated by the allure of these big-time plays. Coming off a nice rookie season, in which he hauled in 52 receptions for 801 yards, and 4 touchdowns on 85  targets. On the surface, these are impressive stats for a rookie, especially when you take into account that he finished ahead of fellow teammate, and target hog Diontae  Johnson in PPR scoring last year. A second-year wide receiver with his dynasty value climbing this offseason, is this rise in value merited? Let’s dive in.  

Reasons to Buy 

Going Balls Deep 

Pickens is your typical old-school traditional split-end X receiver, he’s big, strong,  fast, has great body control, and has a mammoth catch radius. I can see why people are so captivated by George Pickens. Pickens is a maestro of catching deep balls.  Ranked 7th in the NFL last year with 28 deep routes, one in every 3 balls thrown to  Pickens was considered a deep target. Pickens’ Average Depth of Target (aDOT) was a head-turning 15.6, ranking only behind two similar profiling receivers, Deebo  Samuel and A.J Brown. Not the worst company to be in. To add to this, Pickens was a  contested catch guru ranking 13th in contested catch rate (57.1%). You’d be hard-pressed to find a football enthusiast who hasn’t seen one of his weekly highlight reel catches on Sportscenter.    

Golden Opportunity 

Last year, only Garrett Wilson ran more routes as a rookie than George Pickens.  Pickens finished the year with 94% route participation, which was good for a top  16-finish league-wide. His 74% snap share was another great number for a rookie. If  Pickens can get himself open in the short and intermediate routes more often, the numbers would suggest a season 2 breakout. In addition, Kenny Pickett is heading into his 2nd year and will come into 2023 with more confidence, Hopefully, that can turn into improved chemistry between Pickens and Pickett. Pickett was his  most accurate when targeting Pickens with a QB rating of 109.3 vs. 54.8 when targeting  Diontae Johnson. Pickens consistently was the more efficient weapon in the Steeler’s 

offense last season. Additionally, Johnson is only under contract through 2024, so Pickens has a golden opportunity to seize the #1 role with Johnson’s window with the Steelers rapidly closing. Furthermore, the Steelers made some upgrades this offseason to their O line by drafting OT Broderick Jones and signing G Isaac Seumalo. These new pieces will hopefully give Pickett more time in the pocket to open things up to find Pickens more often. Finally, with all this said, word coming out of Steelers camp is that Pickens has been running a more complex route tree. We will most likely be seeing Pickens run routes other than his typical go routes, slants, and hitches. If Pickens can create better separation in the short and intermediate routes he should see an uptick in target share and production in 2023 and beyond. There is plenty of opportunity for Pickens to cement himself as the true Steeler alpha for many years to come.  

 

Reasons to Sell 

Lacks Consistency 

As previously noted, Kenny Pickett has been much more efficient as a passer when targeting Pickens, exemplified by his superior QB rating compared to when he is targeting the other Steeler wide receivers. This raises an intriguing question, Why was Picken’s target share of 15.6% so lackluster? Pickens played 12 games last year where he didn’t register more than 3 catches. Considering his 94% route participation, these are alarming numbers. In addition to this, his 1.38 yards per route run is horrendous when you consider his aDOT is sitting at 15.6. It is clear that Pickens isn’t the first read, or even the second, unless he is 40 yards downfield The ball simply isn’t going Pickens’s way often enough. What’s more, to me, the most concerning part of Pickens’s game, is his inability to get open and create separation.  His route tree has been very basic because of this. As Matt Harmon has illustrated in his Reception Perception, Pickens does poorly vs. zone coverage (68.3 success rate)  and even worse yet, vs. man coverage (64.9%).  These are very poor numbers,  especially when compared to the other rookies that were in this class. Lastly, it is rare (25%) for a wide receiver selected in round 2 or later to finish as a top 24 wide receiver, if they failed to do so in their rookie season. I’d be more optimistic of  Pickens becoming a consistent top-24 receiver had he been a first-round pick.   

D’oh Canada’s Offense 

One would think that having consistency in the coaching staff would be a good thing for a young wide receiver. I think, however, the worst thing the Steelers did this offseason was keep Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, I  think the Steelers would need to take a huge step back for them to move on from him. As I noted earlier, I think the Steelers will take a small step forward this year offensively saving Canada’s job once again. His heavy run, low passing volume offense simply can’t sustain two top 24 wide receivers. Last year the Steelers only 

passed the ball 569 times, This ranks well within the bottom half of the league, slim  Pickens if you ask me. Still, I expect Pickett to make another leap in his 2nd year,  however, I can’t see the Steelers passing more than 600 times this season, which doesn’t bode well for Pickett finishing as a top-15 quarterback that many expect.  This doesn’t leave many extra targets to go to Pickens when we consider the whooping  27% target Diontae Johnson commands. Even though Pickens finished ahead of  Diontae Johnson last year in PPR scoring, it is not a reflection of how the season played out. Diontae has been a target hog throughout his career. Johnson is constantly open and has proven to consistently create separation. Johnson is Pickett’s first read and undoubtedly the Steeler’s #1 receiver. Finally, the addition of  Allen Robinson is worth noting, adding this seasoned veteran adds a reliable outlet in the slot for this young quarterback. It’s also worth mentioning, that Pickens came off the field 50% of the time when the Steelers were running 11 personnel in their recent pre-season game vs. the Buccaneers. This is something worth keeping an eye on because if Pickens is being taken off the field more often this year it will be hard for him to return value on his ADP. 

 

Verdict

Flashy big plays are great, but it’s risky to solely rely on them on a weekly basis.   Unless Pickens can earn consistent targets on short and intermediate routes, it will not result in consistent fantasy production. The big play ability makes Pickens an attractive sell for me. There will surely be someone in your league who thinks he will break out and become a top 20-dynasty wide receiver. It would take a lot of things bouncing Pickens’s way to fulfill such lofty expectations. With all this said, in my opinion, unfortunately, the Steelers simply don’t pass enough for this to become a reality in the foreseeable future. Let one of your league mates buy into this over-hype. There is such a wide range of where people view and draft Pickens in dynasty startups. I’ve seen him go as high as the WR13 and as far down as the WR42. This large variance is intriguing to me, and one that I would be looking to take advantage of immediately. Pickens finished as the WR40 in 2022, but his dynasty value rose to around WR34 on many platforms. I think WR34 is right around his ceiling, and I’d be trying to sell him to a league mate who views him as a top 20 dynasty wide receiver asset. I’d wait for one of those highlight reel catches to pop up on Sportcenter, then put him on the trade block. As the trade offers come in surely one of them will be right for the Pickens. 

 

Sell 

8 Players to Buy Low & Sell High

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8 Players to Buy Low & Sell High

 

We're right in the middle of Dynasty Season, and a trade is happening every minute it seems. I'm here to give you 8 players I'm looking to Sell High and Buy Low.

 

 

BUY LOW

 

Alexander Mattison: RB, Minnesota Vikings

June 1st is behind us, and time is running out. Dalvin Cook’s days seem to be numbered in Minnesota, setting up Alexander Mattison to be the team's RB1 moving forward. Head Coach Kevin O'Connell recently said Mattison's demonstration of "that all-three-down kind of ownership that he's been capable of for a long time." ESPN's Kevin Seifert said "all indications" point to the team using Mattison the same way they have when Cook has been sidelined with injury. In 2022, Dalvin Cook saw 74% of Minnesota's carries. After signing a two-year, $7 million deal with the Vikings in March, Mattison, 24, could be the primary back in a highly-productive Vikings offense this season. Mattison would be a steal and a possible league winner if/when Dalvin Cook is released. I’d certainly send out a rookie 2nd to the Mattison owner in your league, and see if he/she bites.

 

George Pickens: WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m really surprised at how undervalued George Pickens is in Dynasty. I’ve been able to get him for a 2nd round rookie pick in a lot of leagues. I’ll take him over any wide receiver available in the 2nd. Picken has the potential to be the top receiving option in Pittsburgh’s offense, if he isn’t already. His big play ability and likely increased volume makes him a great candidate for a breakout player. If healthy, he should finish as a top 24 wide receiver this coming season. At age 22, I’ll take that all day.

 

Miles Sanders: RB, Carolina Panthers

Miles Sanders was recently named Carolina's RB1 by Head Coach Frank Reich. This is good news for Sanders’ owners everywhere. If you don’t own him in your Dynasty League, then you need to look at acquiring him ASAP. He is an excellent candidate to finish as a top 15-20 RB this coming season. If D’Onta Foreman can prove to be a fantasy asset in Carolina’s offense, imagine what Sanders will do.

 

Najee Harris: RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Another target of mine is Najee Harris. His fantasy owners expected big things from him last season, and he came up short of those expectations. That means there’s a good possibility that Najee owners in your league could be frustrated with him. Keep in mind that he did finish as the RB14 and averaged over 15.00 fantasy points per game. I fully expect him to finish as a mid-to-back-end RB1 this coming season. I’m seeing him traded for a late 1st in rookie drafts. With that being the case, I’d much rather have Najee over the likes of Zach Charbonnet, Zay Flowers, or Kendre Miller in Dynasty Leagues. I’d easily trade Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams, or Derrick Henry, and a 3rd round rookie pick straight up for him. He’s an RB1 that you can get for an RB2 price. Take advantage. 

 

 

SELL HIGH

 

Kenneth Walker III: RB, Seattle Seahawks

The running back situation in Seattle concerns me. I’m not so sure that the Seahawks are very confident in Kenneth Walker III. If they were, why would they spend a 2nd round pick on another running back in Zach Charbonnet? In fact, we have covered this very topic in several shows and articles. Randal Kennedy wrote about this backfield situation recently as well. Check it out here:

https://dynastyprosfootball.com/backfield-breakdown-seattle-seahawks/

I’m shopping Kenneth Walker if I own him. This situation reminds me too much of the Rashaad Penny/Chris Carson headache. Head Coach Pete Carroll is so unpredictable, and that is why I’m trying to get top dollar for Kenneth Walker while I can.

 

Deebo Samuel: WR, San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel is a player I am definitely selling high while I can. Everyone knows his potential, and that’s what I’m pushing when I shop him. Here’s the reality: He averaged a career-low 48.6 receiving yards per game last season. He doesn’t get heavy target volume either (7.2 targets per game last year), and his average depth of target in 2022 was just 4.4 yards. His value always had been impacted due to his rushing numbers. I just don’t see that having much of an impact moving forward. That has everything to do with Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. The rushing volume just isn’t going to be there for Deebo to be the “Deebo” that we’re a custom to. For that reason I’d trade him straight up for a younger wide receiver like DeVonta Smith, Jordan Addison, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

 

Dalvin Cook: RB, Minnesota Vikings

This is a no-brainer. Dalvin Cook’s days in Minnesota are numbered, and he could be released at any time. You’re not going to get top dollar for Dalvin any longer, but time is running out to get anything of value. I’m shopping him for another running back. I recommend packaging him with a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick to get a player like JK Dobbins, David Montgomery, or Rhamondre Stevenson. If he is released before you can move him, be patient. He is rumored to be on the Dolphin’s wish list. So if/when he signs with another club, his value should spike some. Strike up a deal at that time while he is trending.

 

Rookie Pick 1.01

If your Rookie Draft is coming up, and you earned the 1.01 the old fashioned way, then you should be shopping the pick. I know that Bijan Robinson has all the hype in the world, however you can get a haul for him right now. Keep in mind that if you earned the 1.01 pick because of record, then you’re probably not a “Bijan Robinson” away from competing for your league’s championship. Our own Darren Smith wrote about this situation recently. It’s a great read. You can check it out here:

https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-rookie-pick-1-01/

So, if you have that 1.01 you should be considering all options to set your team up for years to come.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: George Pickens

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Dynasty Dilemma: George Pickens

by Doug Harrelson

 

The preseason is finally here and in motion. For us in the dynasty community, this means our first chance to see the rookie prospects we have been talking about for the past six months. It gets hard to control our excitement whenever we get our first action with the shiny new toys from our rookie drafts. One of the players this season that has generated the most buzz this August is former Georgia Bulldog and current Pittsburgh Steeler WR George Pickens.

 

The upside of landing a young, high end WR, can put your dynasty team in a position to be a consistent contender. High end, young WRs like Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb are so expensive to acquire. The best time to get high potential WRs is now.. before they soar to an unattainable price. With that being said, this could be the last opportunity to buy Pickens with the price still reasonable.

Big Athlete with High Upside

Pickens athletic profile is that of a true alpha WR at the NFL level. The kind of prospect that normally goes early in your rookie drafts. When you watch his college tape you see a man amongst kids out there as he bullies DBs. His first preseason game gave us two highlights of him showing the same thing after a gorgeous toe tap in front of the back corner pylon and a block that sent the Seattle CB straight onto his back in a shameful manner.

Landing Spot and Draft Capital

There is a large correlation between draft capital and future fantasy success. Day two of the NFL Draft in particular, has always been a great source of fantasy production at the WR position. Selected with the 20th pick in the 2nd round as pick 52 overall to a team that has a proven track record of drafting the WR position is the kind of thing dynasty managers are looking for. A team that also has a history of handling players with more volatile personalities in the past. This landing spot might have been the best possible place for a personality like Pickens.

 

Selling during preseason hype is often a strong move made by savvy dynasty managers. The combination of basic defenses and backups makes success in the preseason easier to achieve compared to the regular season. With the amount of hype being generated, you can probably find a manager that will give you much more than you invested into acquiring Pickens. You can easily turn the 1.09 in 2022 into a 1st in 2023 plus another young player you are high on, maybe even one drafted ahead of Pickens in the same rookie draft. These kind of profitable moves over the long haul increase to total value of your team and help you build super teams.

Maturity

The expression “he got that dog in him” has been thrown around all over dynasty twitter for the past few days as a feature in Pickens’ game. This is not always a great thing. In Pickens freshman year at Georgia he was ejected from a game and then suspended for the 1st half of the next game. That next game ended up being in the SEC Championship Game against No. 2 LSU. There were also reports coming out before the draft that NFL teams questioned his maturity and did not love his combine interviews. Players can succeed in the league with big personalities and teams are more forgiving with big time talent but there does come some risk. A poorly timed suspension in your fantasy playoffs could be a disaster, not to mention the risk that he just gets cut one day because the league decides his talents aren’t worth the hassle.

Injury History

Pickens lost most of his Junior season at Georgia due to a torn ACL from the spring. He was able to make a recovery and play at the back end of the season but still a thing to keep in mind. Injuries are always a part of football and therefore always a part of fantasy. Any injuries before stepping into the NFL should always be noted, the human body can only take so much in a career.

 

There is a good case to buy him in your league if the price is not too much as well as a good case to sell if you can get a piece that fits your roster construction better. Holding seems like the strongest play at this point. You probably have to offer a 2023 1st and something to get the deal done at this point when in May you could have traded that same 1st for the late 2022 1st to draft George Pickens and probably get some extra for it. If the price is just a 2023 1st, pull the trigger but the price feels like it’s gonna be higher in most leagues.

Selling is an option if you need help in another position group, I recently sold him in a SuperFlex league for Kenny Pickett and a 2023 2nd in a league where I needed another QB quite badly. I’ll admit, not the best trade but I am loaded at WR while needing another arm at QB in that league. I also like maybe packing him up with some picks to go for one of the big name WRs if you have a pretty complete team already. Think Pickens and some draft picks for Jefferson or Chase. I’ve also seen him get sold for Elijah Moore and a 1st so don’t hesitate to see if you can get a big overpay. Anyone can truly be a sell if the buyer is desperate enough.