Featured QB

Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

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Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

By Tim Lazenby

 

The consensus among experts is that Josh Allen is the QB1 in dynasty.  This statement is definitely not unfounded, as we’ll discuss.  When looking at contenders for the crown of top quarterback in dynasty, there are a few.  Many would put Patrick Mahomes right at the top.  Other names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and even Joe Burrow have popped up.  But, I think the biggest contender is none other than Justin Herbert.

Since Justin Herbert only has two seasons in the National Football League, let’s take a moment to break down the first two seasons for Justin Herbert and his top competition, Josh Allen, as passers.  

 

Passing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2018 22 11 5-6-0 320 169 2074 10 12 3.1 52.8 89 75 6.5 12.3 172.8 67.9 28
2019 23 16 10-6-0 461 271 3089 20 9 4.3 58.8 146 53 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 38

 

 

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2020 22 15 6-9-0 595 396 4336 31 10 5.2 66.6 216 72 7.3 10.9 289.1 98.3 32
2021 23 17 9-8-0 672 443 5014 38 15 5.7 65.9 256 72 7.5 11.3 294.9 97.7 31

 

When it comes to prowess in the passing game, although Allen has greatly improved, he wasn’t even close to the same level in his first two seasons as Justin Herbert was in his.  Even now, Allen’s passing game, whether it be from the system or his talent itself, doesn’t approach the numbers that Justin Herbert has put out.  I’d still take Josh Allen over the vast majority of the league as a passer, but he’s quite a distance away from Herbert, at least by the numbers.

Let’s not forget about the running game for both Allen and Herbert though.  We all know that a rushing quarterback is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.  It’s a talent that can’t be ignored when considering dynasty QB1 status.  Here are the stats for each as a rookie and sophomore.

 

Rushing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year

 Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2018 22 11 89 631 8 41 45 7.1 52.6 7.4 280 6
2019 23 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 319 6.8 243 10

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2020 22 15 55 234 5 20 31 4.3 15.6 3.7 57 5
2021 23 17 63 302 3 28 36 4.8 17.8 3.7 48 1

 

 

When it comes to the running game, it’s not even close.  Josh Allen is far superior in this regard.  While he’s not at the level of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or even Jalen Hurts, he rules supreme among the duo we’re talking about and is still a top option in the entire NFL in this regard.  It is important to note, however, that the rushing game of Justin Herbert is underrated and respectable: quite in the realm of what you look for in that elite quarterback when paired with their passing game.

Conclusion

It’s a tale of two very different entrances into the NFL.  Josh Allen’s beginning was very difficult.  With Kelvin Benjamin, as a journeyman at that point, and an aging LeSean McCoy as the best options, you can see why he struggled out of the gate.  The defense also ranked in the middle of the pack, often leaving Allen without his best shot at success.  His continued improvement is fantastic, and even though I’m only highlighting his first two seasons, I don’t need to tell you how good he’s become.  The current team surrounding him is also very good.  The Buffalo Bills don’t have many holes and they should win their division; clearing the way for another year of fantasy success for Josh Allen.  I’m sure we can expect similar production from Allen, but that’s the problem.  I don’t see things getting any better.

For the first time in 16 years, someone other than Philip Rivers was QB for the Chargers and Herbert was better than most predicted, even behind the league’s worst offensive line.  In his first two seasons, Herbert was sensational and he’s only gotten better.  He didn’t need a couple years to develop.  He’s simply always been amazing and he’s only getting better.  Coupled with the unbelievable off season that Tom Telesco has given to the Chargers, I can’t see Herbert’s stock doing anything else but skyrocket.  The offensive weapons have quietly improved, but the defense is the most helpful part to aid in Herbert’s continued success.  If the Chargers don’t finish as the league’s best defense it’d be surprising, but even if they don’t, they are light years better.  This will keep Herbert on the field more, hence scoring more fantasy points than ever before.

In today’s NFL, dual threat quarterbacks are all the rage, but some are just so good that they don’t need to rely on it.  Take the discount now and bank on Justin Herbert as dynasty’s QB1 moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Mid/Late Round Players that will Finish Top-12

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Players Drafted Outside the Top-12 that will Finish Inside the Top-12

by Bob Miller

 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Before Stafford had to be sidelined for the last eight games in 2019 due to a back injury, he was on fire. He threw for almost 2,500 yards, 19 TDs and only five interceptions. He was on pace to have a career-year, similar to 2011 when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. He is currently being taken outside the top-12 and should finish as a QB1 if healthy, easily making him a fantastic value pick, especially in Superflex leagues.

 

Ryan Tannehill: All Tannehill did last year after taking over in Week 7 was rack up fantasy points. In fact, from Week 7 on, the only QB to outscore Tannehill was Lamar Jackson. So why is he being drafted so low this year? Sure, he probably won’t repeat the same performance as last year, but he should put together another fantastic season with his rushing ability and weapons around him. With an ADP of 130 (#20 QB), he should drastically outperform his current price. At only 31 years old, he could be a nice bargain in dynasty leagues.

 

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben should be considered a back-end QB1 if he's healthy and firing on all cylinders. He is fully expected to be 100% and ready to roll for Week 1 and he's my favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. JuJu Smith-Schuster should also experience a nice rebound season after a 2019 to forget without Roethlisberger slinging him the rock. Roethlisberger, with all his weapons around him, should be a fantastic pickup late in your draft that can payoff big time.

 

Running Back

Kenyan Drake: Drake is in a high-octane offense that’s trending upwards and should put up insane numbers this season. Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com states that Drake could get over 350 touches. Wow! There are a lot of great options in the top 10 RBs right now, but you can wait. Drake has legit potential to explode this season and a top-6 finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Cam Akers: There is rumor that the Rams backfield could be a RBBC, but LA wouldn’t have spent a 2nd round pick on Akers if they believed in Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown. We all know what a running back is capable of in this offense after watching Todd Gurley for the last few seasons. Even though the Rams have lost some guys on the O-Line, Akers is primed to be the early down back to start the season and could take over full time very quickly. It will be hard to keep him off the field, making him a double digit touchdown threat. He can definitely finish as a top-12 back.

 

James Conner:  There is no doubt that Conner is a fantasy stud...when he’s on the field. That’s the question. Can he stay healthy? Regardless, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Conner has proven that he can shine behind them. He is a contract year player and extremely motivated to stay in Pittsburgh. If Conner can stay healthy, he will drastically outperform where he's being drafted right now. Take full advantage, as the risk is worth the reward.

 

Todd Gurley: Just like in 2017, Todd Gurley can be a league winner again. Gurley is going to be given all the touches he can handle in this Falcons offense, if he can stay healthy. If he shows that he can handle a significant workload, he'll easily outperform his ADP in 2020. Atlanta has the 3rd easiest schedule this season, which makes Gurley hands down one of my favorite values.

 

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp: Cooper Kupp may end up being one of the biggest steals in your draft this year. He was incredibly productive through the first half of 2019. In fact, from Weeks 1-8, Kupp was the WR2 in all of fantasy football. He finished as the #6 WR in PPR with 94 rec, 1,162 yds, 10 TDs on 134 targets. With Brandin Cooks gone, Kupp could see over 150+ targets this year. As Jared Goff’s security blanket, especially in the Red Zone, it’s very possible that Kupp could finish as a top 3 WR in PPR Leagues this year. With a current ADP of WR15 (35th overall), Kupp is a steal at this price.

 

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: I know there’s a ton of hype around Hollywood this year, but it’s for good reason. He is the current #1 Wide Receiver in Baltimore’s offense. He showed what he was capable as a rookie with a bad foot hauling in 584 yds with 7 touchdowns on 46 receptions. Now imagine what he will do with a year’s experience under his belt, a healed and healthy foot, and a whole offseason working out with Lamar Jackson. He is primed to blow up this season. I have him projected to have 74 rec, 1,089 yds, and 9 TDs. That’s 239 PPR points, which would have been top 7 last season. Currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX, he could be a league winner this year.

 

Jarvis Landry: “Old Reliable” is what I refer to Landry as. Wait.. old? Nope. He’s only 27 years old. The same age as Michael Thomas and younger than DeAndre Hopkins, meaning Jarvis Landry has plenty of good years ahead of him. He may be coming off an injury, but he has never missed a game in his NFL career...Never. He averages 94 catches a year, so why is he being drafted outside the top 30 WRs? I have no idea, but I absolutely love it. He is a wonderful target in the mid-rounds, which gives you an opportunity to stock up on RB or QB (if you’re in a Superflex league). He is as close to a sure thing to have 80+ receptions this year as you can get. Like Hollywood Brown, Landry is currently being drafted as a WR3/FLEX. He is a high end WR2 with WR1 upside in a Browns offense that should be improved.

 

Tight End

Blake Jarwin: Jarwin is finally free! Free from playing behind Jason Witten. He's in a great situation this season in a very dynamic and powerful offense. He’s very athletic and can stretch the field extremely well for a TE, which will result in some good chunk plays. He's going to see plenty of work and should be a back-end TE1 this season. Currently being drafted outside the top 20 TEs, Jarwin can pay off big time as a late round pick.

 

 

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is no sleeper by any means, and he is getting more hype as the season gets closer. This is a player with an ADP of the #21 TE a month ago. He has now creeped up into the Top 15. That’s still not bad, because he can still be the biggest surprise at TE this year. Hurst has a very good chance and path to finishing as a Top 5 option at the end of this season. Hurst is a tremendously talented tight end who is finally going to be given a full-time opportunity in Atlanta's dynamic offense. He will be a homerun pick in the later rounds of your draft. If you are in a dynasty league, go trade for him. You may have to pay more than you’d want, but it could still be a great bargain.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @DynastyProBob

Are you Teddy for Some Football?!

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Are you Teddy for some football?!

by Matt Kelley

Quaterback Peyton Super Bowl

Gone are the days of ‘Superman’ Cam Newton. Gone are the days of ‘Riverboat Ron’. Insert Teddy Bridgewater at Quarterback and Matt Rhule as the Head Coach. With fantasy being a game where you want to rely on history, predictability and opportunity, what can we expect out of the Panthers and this new look offense? 

First off, Christian McCaffery. Good at football. I’m not going to tell you something you don’t already know about the league’s most dynamic running back, the top scoring fantasy running back, and in PPR the top scoring player. Nothing should change here, even with the new coaching regime. The Panthers went all defensive in this year’s NFL draft and have signed no one of note behind CMC. All systems are a go once again. Take him in redraft, take him in dynasty, take him everywhere. 

The real questions come in with the rest of pieces in this offense. The Panthers just never got off to a rhythm last season going from Cam Newton to Kyle Allen to Will Grier. There wasn’t much that was pretty about the QB play last year in Charlotte. Parting ways with Cam Newton, the Panthers turn to Teddy Bridgewater (originally with the Vikings, horrendous injury, backup to Drew Brees on the Saints). Teddy’s journey is quite the story and he now has a chance to prove himself as a full-time starter. He’ll also have the benefit of Joe Brady calling the plays whom he will be familiar with from his time in New Orleans. In a Covid shortened off season, that could prove to be very valuable. Bridgewater started six games last year in place of Brees while he was injured. In that span the Saints went 6-0 and Bridgewater threw nine touchdowns to only two interceptions. Ball security will be huge for Carolina staying on the field as they had 20 interceptions last season in their final 10 games. Teddy can be looked at as a steady QB2 in two quarterback or superflex leagues.  The longer the offense is on the field, the more opportunities for guys like…

…D.J. Moore. Moore racked up 135 targets, 87 catches for 1175 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games (he sat in a meaningless week 17 matchup). All of that with subpar QB play. Before  you read the next sentence please know, I’m not calling D.J. Moore the same player as Michael Thomas. However, Moore is the clear  wide receiver one in Carolina and the routes that he thrives on (slants, digs, outs) are similar routes that Michael Thomas thrives on. Short, quick routes that allow the receiver to get into space and do work after the catch. In six games with Bridgewater, Michael Thomas saw double digit targets in three of those games and in another he had nine targets. This should be a solid pairing. Much like CMC, he’s a viable fantasy player in any format. 

Now, who is the third option  in Carolina? Well, it seems the Panthers paid Robby Anderson to come in and take that role (follow the money). He definitely flashed in his time with the Jets and is a deep threat that the Panthers need. Much has been made about Bridgewater’s lack of throwing the ball deep. While his arm isn’t that of Pat Mahomes, I expect him to take his fair shots with Anderson. Robby is best suited as a WR4/5 on your team until we can see what his role is a bit more definitively. 

This leaves us with everyone’s fantasy darling of last season, Curtis Samuel and tight end Ian Thomas. Samuel is still only 23 years old and the Panthers did utilize a second round draft pick on Samuel however, that was an old regime and again, they paid Robby Anderson to come in to be a difference maker on the outside. Samuel may have some games or plays that pop but, my guess is he’ll be on the field more in three WR sets, not two, and could see his target share diminish. Ian Thomas on the other hand is taking over a role that is completely vacant as Greg Olsen is now a Seahawk. Thomas has largely played behind Olsen the last two seasons  and will now seize that role for himself. Olsen saw 82 targets over 14 games last season. That wouldn’t be an unreasonable number for Thomas to see if he stays consistent. Again, a player that can benefit from Bridgewater with the intermediate routes. He has potential to sneak into the back end of the TE1 category and can be streamed in plus matchups. 

Overall, the Panthers are trending up. Coach Rhule is likely to run a faster, college influenced offensive system  that will have the Panthers running more plays per game. The defense will need to mold with all of the new pieces (and the loss of Luke Kuechly) but will surely improve as the season trudges on. They’re in a division where shoot outs are a real possibility at any point. We all know CMC and D.J. Moore are fantasy assets but don’t sleep on the rest of those Panthers.

@ThatMattKelley

ADP Early Values: AFC South

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ADP Early Values: AFC South

by Matt Kelley

We are now in July and folks are starting to turn on their spidey senses for fantasy football. If you’re reading this, those senses have probably already been on. We’ve talked NFC South value picks for where we are in the calendar year; let's shift our focus to the AFC South to talk about who you can snag at a value. As always, this article assumes a 12-team league and PPR scoring.

 

Houston Texans: Brandin Cooks

Well, the Texans certainly made some off-season noise, and it probably wasn’t what Texans fans were hoping for, when they shipped perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Deandre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson (there were some picks too, but...Deandre freaking Hopkins). That left the Texans with a pretty big hole at the wide receiver position. Brandin Cooks enters a WR corps that features Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb.

Cooks has four seasons in which he has compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards. Fuller, Stills, and Cobb have combined for one (Cobb, 2014). There are various reasons why that hasn’t occurred for these guys, but nonetheless Cooks comes into a situation with all of Hopkins’ vacated targets, Deshaun Watson - a quarterback in his prime, and by far the most accomplished WR. The Texans mark Cooks’ fourth team since entering the league in 2014.

His current ADP sits at WR 35, overall pick 73, in the top half of the sixth round. Teammate Will Fuller is going about ten picks before Cooks. Fuller has an electric connection with Watson when on the field but hasn’t started more than 11 games in the last three seasons, largely due to hamstring injuries. Cooks isn’t without risk as he has five documented concussions. The NFL has put more emphasis on concussions over the last several seasons, so it is worrisome that Cooks could be a hit away from leaving the field for an extended time.

By all accounts, Cooks has noted his health is fine, and he seems to be ready to forge on. If he can stay on the field, he’ll likely be an absolute steal at this point in a draft as there aren’t too many guys going this late with a proven 1,000 yard upside.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Marlon Mack

I know...and Jonathan Taylor, right? I know. Marlon Mack is currently going as RB 42, overall pick 113, in the top half of round 9. What I’ve taken away from the Colts coaching staff so far this offseason is that they believe this will be a committee situation in the backfield.

It’s no secret that Indy has a great offensive line, which is welcoming news to any RB and most likely more so to new incoming QB, Philip Rivers. With the offseason shortened, the Colts could turn towards the running game as a whole a bit more often while Rivers starts to settle in and develop chemistry. That said, Taylor will need to do the same to some degree.

I fully expect Mack to garner at least 60% of the touches through the first half of the year. Mack will certainly concede the passing down work to Taylor or Nyheim Hines. However, Mack is going about 70 picks after Taylor. With Mack having the early work (and likely being the starter for a large portion of the season), he could easily surpass RB42 value. In 26 games over the last two seasons, Mack has put up more than 1,900 yards rushing.

This isn’t a Frank Gore/Devin Singletary scenario. Plus in the last two seasons he’shad eight and nine touchdowns, respectively. I think Mack is still the go-to back at the goal line. He can be seen as a RB2 in the early portion of the season and also sustain weekly flex appeal throughout.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew II

I mustache you...do you like rushing quarterbacks? I know I do. Gardner Minshew had 281 yards rushing in 12 games last season - that’s about 21 yards a game. To some it might not sound like a ton, but in four point passing touchdown leagues, that comes out to an extra eight touchdowns over the course of a season...or it erases his fumbles from last season...however you’d like to look at it.

Minshew took over for Nick Foles last season, who went down pretty much out of the gate. It was a little back and forth with Foles and Minshew once Foles was back, but the Jags liked what they saw in Gardner (he’s also getting paid considerably less) and sent Foles to Chicago to compete with Mitch Trubisky. It was anticipated that the Jags would sign a higher profile backup or perhaps someone to compete with Minshew, but they really haven’t done that. Minshew goes into the season as the starter with no competition for his spot, a hopefully motivated Leonard Fournette, and a pretty good surrounding cast.

In fantasy drafts, he’s almost undrafted. He’s currently slotted in as QB 23, pick 223 overall - basically undrafted unless you have very deep rosters. If things don’t work out for Minshew, you really haven’t lost much in redraft leagues. Obviously in dynasty, you’d likely have an option ahead of Minshew or as your QB2 in SuperFlex leagues. The first two games for the Jags are tougher with the Colts and then on the road in Tennessee. After that though, the Jags get the Bengals, Texans, and Lions - all beatable defenses. If Minshew can limit his fumbles and get into the endzone on the ground a couple of times, he could be a great play in plus matchups and easily come in ahead of QB23.

 

Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith

I’ve already planted my flag and told you why you should draft Ryan Tannehill (you can find that from my earlier article on why he’s the real deal), so now I’ll let you know one of biggest reasons why he’ll be successful: his TE, Jonnu Smith. Smith is currently being drafted as TE 16, pick 154, the back of round 12. Now, if you’re drafting with me, Jonnu isn’t making it to the back half of round 12. Smith is option number two in the passing game behind A.J. Brown in this offense. The Titans obviously had a tale of two seasons last year. One with Marcus Mariota, and the other with the aforementioned Tannehill. From week eight forward, Smith saw at least four targets in six games. Not a ton of volume I’ll give you, but the Titans leaned on the monster that was Derrick Henry down the stretch...and who can blame them?

While the Titans are likely to run Henry for everything he has left in him this year, Tannehill proved to be efficient in this system, and both he and Smith will have a full off-season knowing they’re locked into starting roles. I’m not telling you that Smith is the next Mark Andrews or George Kittle, but I am saying he’s in an offense that is efficient (as he was at 12.5 yards a grab last season), and will have plenty of scoring opportunities. I think Smith could provide weekly upside to finish within the top six at his position and within the top 10 TE’s for the season.

You can follow me @ThatMattKelley

Is Ryan Tanne-Real? 

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Is Ryan Tanne-Real?

by Matt Kelley

Going into the 2019 season, the consensus seemed to be that it was the last shot for Marcus Mariota to prove that he was the real deal and deserved to continue as the signal caller for the Tennessee Titans. Ryan Tannehill came over to the Titans for a fourth and seventh round draft pick, with Miami paying five of the seven million owed on his contract (man, how good does that look now?). At the time Tannehill moved on from Miami, his last few seasons had been injury plagued. He was productive when he was on the field but found it difficult to stay healthy. The Titans started 2-3 last season and failed to score more than 20 points in any of those contests. The Mariota era ended, and the Titans turned to Tannehill.

I’ll be the first to say, I didn’t think Tannehill was going to be ‘the guy’. If you haven’t noticed, starting quarterbacks that can actually change your team are hard to come by in the NFL. Once Tannehill took over, everything changed for the Titans. Tennessee went 7-4 while Tannehill went BANANAS. B.A.N.A.N.A.S. The quarterback threw for 22 touchdowns (rushed for another 4), had 2,742 passing yards, sustained a 70.3 completion percentage, and ran for 185 yards… all in 11 games. His 16 game pace was just shy of 4,000 yards with 32 passing touchdowns and 269 rushing yards. If you could guarantee that same performance to a fantasy manager at the draft, you better believe they’d smash that draft button all day long.

So where does this leave Tannehill for Redraft and Dynasty?

Well for redraft, we can utilize Bestball 10’s data to get a feel for what redraft looks like if you drafted today. Tannehill is currently going as QB 18 (obviously not a QB1), and a mid range QB 2 for those in a 2QB/Superflex league. He’s currently being drafted after the likes of  Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, and Ben Roethlisberger. Tannehill is being drafted just before Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo. That gives you an idea of his draft tier. You can make a case for all of these guys. You can also poke holes in all of their game and potential.

The QB’s in front of Tannehill

Ironically enough, the QB’s going in front of Tannehill, even after last season, are either coming off of injury or a bad season - though Goff did look considerably better once the Rams went to 12 personnel.

-Big Ben is coming off Tommy John surgery which is rare to see for a QB, so it’s sort of an unknown; however, in regards to pitchers in baseball, the success rate for that surgery is considerably higher today than it was five or ten years ago. In fact, guys tend to come back throwing harder than they did previously. Really for Ben, it’s about being in football shape and connecting with some new faces.

-Jared Goff. We’ve seen the high points for Goff, but unfortunately we’ve also seen the low. And woof... it’s not good. The questions for Goff are: Do the Rams stick with their late season switch to 12 personnel where he was finding success (along with Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee)? Or do they shift offensive philosophy with the departure of Brandin Cooks?

-Matt Stafford’s potential and upside is debatable when considering him or Tannehill at your QB spot, and I couldn’t fault someone for heading that direction. By all reports, Stafford should be all systems go and fully recovered from his back injury.

While all of these QB’s are drafted ahead of Tannehill, none of them offer the rushing that Tannehill brings to the table.

The QB’s behind Tannehill

-Joe Burrow. There was no doubt he was going to be the overall number one pick for this year’s NFL draft. He was ‘the chosen one’ for the Cincinnati Bengals’ franchise. Surrounded with pretty decent weapons in Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon (if he gets his deal done), and A.J. Green (if he can stay on the field...I have doubts). The Bengals did improve themselves with the draft, no doubt. With a shortened off season, Burrow will have limited reps with his teammates. While there are a lot of things you can substitute, reps aren’t one of them, so the start for Burrow could be rocky.

-Kirk Cousins. Is there a QB with more polar opposite thoughts from both fans and fantasy managers alike? Cousins has been known to be a mostly consistent fantasy producer but has had it taken on the chin in a few games, a few too many for some. He lost a top target in Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen is going to be the one in this receiving corps. Thielen will likely still produce but remember, Thielen battled hamstring injuries quite a bit last season. While that doesn’t mean he will do the same this season, it does mean he’s more likely to have a recurrence of that injury than a player who has not had that injury. Should he go down, Cousins’ options really become limited. That’s perhaps the most linear comparison with Tannehill. If A.J. Brown was to go down, Tannehill would have less than stellar options to throw to, and the Titans could just hand it to Derrick Henry and rely on their defense.

-Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G. is another polarizing QB. He doesn’t throw the ball all that far, and in some games, all that often. His WR’s do a lot of the work after the catch. Oddly enough though, his numbers really are the most similar to Tannehill of this group, less the rushing.

For the purposes of redraft, I’m on the Tannehill hype train. Was his touchdown percentage outrageously efficient? Yup. Will it regress? Probably. However he’ll go into year two, and he’ll now be acclimated to the Titans offense. After what the Titan’s saw from A.J. Brown over the back half of the season, you have to imagine he’s almost never coming off the field, and Tannehill will have him as his go to option all season. Oh by the way, Jonnu Smith will finally have a clear path at the TE position, and at this point he’s simply a more athletically gifted and talented player than Delanie Walker.

The dynasty portion of this take is actually significantly shorter. Ryan Tannehill secured the bag in the offseason with a 4 year extension. He’s the guy for the Titans. Derrick Henry however, last year’s AFC rushing leader, is not guaranteed to suit up as a Titan past this season. Extension talks have been pretty mild at this point, at least publicly. While Tannehill was amazing last season, everyone knows that without Henry, this offense looks very different, which includes the opportunities and comforts that Tannehill has as a passer. Now, the Titans could find someone to come in and take Henry’s spot (and perhaps Henry is partly a product of this system), but I’d imagine the odds of a smooth transition would be slim. The Titans also need a second receiver (sorry, Corey Davis truthers). This could be the situation where Tannehill helps you this year, and you look to move on from his production after this season. Personally, I think Tannehill is the real deal and can be a strong option for both your redraft fantasy teams as well as your dynasty teams.

@ThatMattKelley

ADP Early Values: NFC South

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ADP Early Values- NFC South

by Matt Kelley

 

ADP. Average. Draft. Position. There’s almost nothing you’ll hear more about in terms of a
fantasy football draft between now and the kickoff of the NFL season. ADP can fluctuate
depending on your league type, scoring and league size. For the sake of this article, we’re going
to assume that the league is a 12 team, PPR, single QB, and a total of 16 roster spots (all ADP
in this article is based on Bestball 10’s 12 player leagues). Pretty standard league, a format
you’ll most likely play in if you’re reading this

.
As always, the goal in a draft is to take someone at an Average Draft Position that is most
beneficial. Let’s say you want Drew Brees as your QB. Nothing wrong with that, but you don’t
need to take him with your first pick. In fact, you probably don’t need to take him with your first
eight picks. If you wait eight picks and miss out on him, good news for you, someone has let
value at another position fall and you’ll still get a good QB. ADP should be used as a guide
throughout your draft to understand where players are typically going, not as a strict source to
say you need to take this player. Depending on what position you draft from you may be able to
wait on a certain player, you may need to reach to get your guy and both of those are okay.
Know your leaguemates if you can. Where they’re from, tendencies, and experience. All of this
can influence ADP.
Now that we’ve breezed by what ADP is, what it means, and how it’s used, let's look at some
fellas in the NFC South that should outperform their ADP.

Atlanta Falcons:

Russell Gage-- I know, how many fantasy relevant wide receivers can the Falcons have? Well,
I’m borderline saying three. We all know about Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley but if you didn’t
watch a lot of Falcons football last year, you may have missed out on Gage. Then again, if you
did, he may have won you a week here and there from the waiver wire. Gage is currently going
at pick 232-- 19th round-- i.e. free unless you’re in a really, really deep league. So while
technically you don’t need to draft Gage by ADP, he might be worth that late round flyer pick.
Mohammud Sanu was dealt to the Patriots and that role has been filled by Gage. From week
eight on, Gage saw at least four targets in every game. In games without Jones or Ridley, Gage
saw double digit targets in two games. In two other games with Jones and Ridley, Gage saw
nine targets. Gage totaled 70 targets from week seven forward. Austin Hooper vacates 97
targets (over 13 games) and I don’t think all of those are going right back to Hurst. If you haven’t
caught on by now, the Falcons throw the ball a lot. Normally you’d hear there’s too many
mouths to feed between Jones, Ridley, Hurst and Todd Gurley but, I think the volume is there
for Gage to have flex appeal on most any given week. He’ll be on the field in three wide receiver
sets so his snap share is capped but, should Julio or Ridley miss time, he’s an easy plug and
play. If you draft him, you can save your FAAB and not worry about fighting for him on the
waiver wire.

Carolina Panthers:

Christian McCaffrey-- ok just kidding. Actual Player: Ian Thomas. As mentioned in my Panthers
preview, Ian Thomas is now the TE in Carolina, no longer behind Greg Olsen. Ian Thomas is
currently going as the 18th TE off the board, pick 143 overall, top of the 12th round. He’s going
nearly 30 picks after Dallas Goedert who is the second TE on his own team. The top three TE in
fantasy seem to be pretty clear cut with Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. There’s
some positions where I deviate from top players, TE isn’t one of them, these guys are to me, in
their own class. So if you miss out on these three guys, WAIT. There’s a ton of TE’s left after
those three and it's one of the most difficult positions to lockdown in fantasy, I know. Here’s the
thing though, Thomas walks into a role where the TE saw 82 targets last season in 14 games.
Nearly six targets a game. Carolina is in an entirely new regime with Matt Rhule and company
but, the offense should see an uptick in pace, which should mean more plays, which should
mean more opportunity. 80+ targets is well within the range of outcomes for Thomas. Thomas is
also going after guys like Hayden Hurst (whew, that hype train is starting to go off the rails),
Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, and T.J. Hockenson. Not to get too deep into the woods here
because we could be here all day but Thomas has a very real possibility to outperform all of
these players. Is there risk involved? Yea, we’re talking about a player in the 12th round. I think
Thomas will be worth your pick and worth the wait at the position and finish around TE 14, with
an outside shot to break into the top 12.

New Orleans Saints:

Emmanuel Sanders. I’m going to be real honest... I have buyers remorse from buying into a role
that has been unpredictable for fantasy managers over the years. Teddy Ginn, Tre’Quan Smith
(shudders), and Brandon Coleman. It’s been since 2016 since the WR2 on the Saints had
meaningful value and wasn’t just a shot in the dark (technically Michael Thomas was the two
that year with Brandin Cooks being the one, remember that?). So why is this year different?
Well, few things. The NFC South is absolutely loaded. Every one of those matchups has the
ability to turn into a shootout. Oh by the way, the Saints also face the Raiders, Lions, and the
Chiefs (good luck keeping up). Michael Thomas is largely, and rightfully so, considered the best
WR in the league. Attention will surely be devoted his way giving Sanders both the second best
defender on a team and often, in plus matchups. Emmanuel Sanders walked right into San
Francisco last season and got 97 targets on a team that threw the ball 476 times. The Saints
have been lower passing volume the last couple of years but the Saints should surpass the 500
attempt mark in what could be QB Drew Brees last season. If the Saints throw 530 times,
Emmanuel Sanders would need an 18% target share to see 95 targets. Both seem like fairly
reasonable numbers. Plus, Drew Brees is still hyper efficient. Manny Sanders has an ADP of
113, the middle of ninth round and the 47th WR off the board. While his upside is capped
because, well, Michael Thomas, Sanders can provide you with weekly flex value with occasional
WR2 upside. I’m going back to the well here, give me Manny Sanders!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady. It’s still weird that he isn’t a Patriot right? Gronk too. At this moment, you could say
both guys are a value but, let’s focus on Brady. Brady currently has an ADP of 122, the first pick
of round 10, and the 13th QB off the board. He’s teetering on QB1 territory here, so he’s a value
for now, we’ll have to see what this looks like in August. The Patriots have largely won off of
defense, short passes, featuring random running backs, and ‘Beli-checking’ everyone. At least
we think, right? Brady has actually thrown the ball at least 570 times the last three seasons. In
4pt per passing touchdown leagues, Brady hasn’t hit the 300 fantasy point mark since 2015.
He’s been a steady option, he just hasn’t necessarily provided league winning upside. Grant you
in 2016 he scored 258 points after his "Deflategate" suspension and he could have won folks a
league that year. This year though, Brady departs everything he’s ever known to a team that
has arguably the league's best wide receiver corps. He’s reunited with his buddy Rob
Gronkowski so there’s a familiar safety blanket for Brady assuming Gronk can stay on the field.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are absolute monsters and Brady’s best collective options in
years. Brady has quietly thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last three seasons. As talked
about with the Saints, the Bucs are in this loaded NFC South and are going to have to put up a
lot of points. I expect Brady is currently being drafted at his floor with a ceiling of being in the top
8 fantasy quarterbacks. Think Jameis Winston numbers with a *few* less interceptions.

@ThatMattKelley