Fantasy Values

Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies, Rome Odunze vs. Jalen McMillan

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Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies, Rome Odunze vs. Jalen McMillan

Welcome to Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies. This is a recurring series in which we pit two college players against each other and advise you on the strategy necessary to acquire each. At the end, we'll help you choose which player to prioritize, but by all means, if you can get both, do that.

An NCAA football program can have much bigger problems than which of your 2024 NFL draft locks at wide receiver should your 2024 1st round quarterback prioritize in the passing game. Welp. That's the conundrum that the University of Washington Huskies football program and star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. are dealing with.

The Huskies receiving corps is led by Rome Odunze, Junior wide receiver who was a 4-star recruit from Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Jalen McMillan, another 4-star recruit from San Joaquin Memorial High School in Fresno, California. Much like the Ohio State Buckeyes with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, both of whom are competing for touches, the Huskies are in the enviable position of trotting two of the 10 best college receivers onto the field every Saturday. This puts US in the UNENVIABLE position of figuring out where to devote our energy in Devy and College fantasy leagues.

That's why we're here. We want you to be primed to make the best decision. Will it be Odunze? Will it be McMillan? The answer may surprise you. LET'S GET IT ON!

 

 

If there is an edge to be found here, I haven't found it. Production differences are negligible with no advantage to either. Odunze is  little taller, McMillan is a little faster. This matchup reminds me of Harrison/Egbuka in almost every way.

 

The Case for Rome Odunze

I want to build a prototypical NFL WR prospect. He needs to produce. I'm looking for speed below a 4.6 second 40-yard dash. Odunze ran a reported 4.45. I want a minimum size of 175 pounds or over 6 feet in height. Odunze clears both of those easy. Lastly, I want a receiver to have competition on his team from other NFL projectable receivers. Odunze has McMillan. The only two places where Odunze falls short is in breakout age and as an early declare. He didn't breakout until he was 20 years old, and that may have been as a Sophomore, but it was his 3rd year in the program, after red-shirting. He also will be declaring after 4 years, not 3.

Those profile boxes left unchecked matter a little, but not significantly. Sometimes, as is the case with both Odunze and McMillan, they can be subject to the system and it's not a matter of talent. The point is, Odunze's profile is good.

On the field, where it matters most, Odunze is a very polished receiver. He is good against press coverage and wins at the line of scrimmage with explosive acceleration and violent hands. He has enough wiggle to separate before the catch and to evade tacklers and create YAC. He's also a legitimate deep threat with good ball-tracking skills, uses his hands well, and is acrobatic. There's a lot to like, and in 2022 he averaged 15.3 yards per catch.

In Devy

As far as how you should strategize your draft, Odunze doesn't rise to the level of his Ohio State counterparts, but he is still a nice 2nd round target. If MHJ or Egbuka are on the board, but if not, look for Odunze. His Fantrax ADP of 15 leaves room for volatility as I've seen him taken with the 21st pick and the 26th pick which hints at mild value.

The time to trade for him is now, as another huge year and high draft capital next Summer will put him in a range similar to where Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison are right now.

 

The Case for Jalen McMillan

Let's now take a look at how McMillan fits into my profile. Speed? Check. Size? Check. Breakout age? Same. Declare? Same. Competition? Same. It's almost like we're dealing with clones. Where Odunze has the edge, barely, is in his size and production. McMillan, however, is faster. He also has a knack for route running and using a DB's technique against him to create space. He's a human joystick-type with quick feet and stop-start ability. He reaches his top speed quickly and smoothly coming out of breaks and uses his hands well to catch. He can jump and has long arms for his size so he can high-point in contested catch situations.

To contrast the two teammates, they both can do a lot of the same things, but I think McMillan has just a few more tools in his toolbox. That doesn't necessarily translate to value, it just gilds his profile a little bit and moves him closer to Odunze, in my eyes as opposed to consensus.

In Devy

McMillan is an incredible value. He has the potential to overtake Odunze statistically, but he doesn't have the ADP or cache. A firm late-2nd round ADP and creating some 3rd round value allow you to take other players earlier and not sacrifice production. He's in the perfect position to allow you to target the elite QBs and RBs first, and take him later.

If you own him, hold. If you can trade for him, do it now.

 

WINNER

Push. You're going to get production from both. They're ridiculously even. If you have a later round pick in your Devy draft, don't be afraid to take them both as your WRs 1 and 2. If you have an early pick in the first round, take an elite QB, an elite RB, Marvin Harrison, Jr. or Emeka Egbuka in the 1st and then be pleased if Odunze falls or McMillan is available. In our DynastyPros C2C Writers League, I took Odunze at 2.09 and McMillan went at 3.10.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance

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Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance (Updated)

UPDATE: Per Adam Schefter, Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Schefter’s report was released at 4:22 pm on 8/25/2022, about 3 and a half hours before this article was posted. It is important to note that the trade does not change the following analysis. The only change is the potential for Lance to start if there is an injury to Dak Prescott. You may proceed as outlined.

The year is 2000. A young man walks into a fortune teller’s shop on his town’s main street. Not in the downtown area, but on the edge of town. The man sits down at the crystal ball and the fortune teller lays out the wildest tale. She tells the young man, an expectant father that he will have a son. That son will grow up to be a highly coveted quarterback. That quarterback will earn a starting position for his national champion college team as a sophomore, lead that team to a 16-0 record and another national championship, and throw 28 touchdowns that year without throwing an interception in 287 attempts. The boy would also rush for 1100 yards that season and add 14 more touchdowns. The young man is stunned.

The fortune teller goes on to tell the man that his son will enter the 2021 NFL Draft at the age of 20, and be picked by the San Francisco 49ers with the 3rd overall pick, after trading 2 first round picks and 2 other picks to move up and draft their guy. He will eventually grow into a man standing 6’4″, weighing 225 pounds, and running a 4.5 second 40-yard dash. Now the young father-to-be is bewildered. His son is going to be a superstar!

 

 

6 months earlier, a different expectant father goes into a different fortune teller’s shop. The fortune teller explains that HIS son is going to be 6’1″, run a 4.85 40, have an unheralded college career on a normal 4-year track, and be passed on in HIS draft 261 times, before the 49ers draft him to be a backup, maybe, and he’ll earn the nickname given the last pick, “Mr. Irrelevant.” This young father is also bewildered. He wanted a superstar. Now he’s convinced he’s got a palooka.

 

 

Neither fortune teller would see that 23 years later, the palooka would be announced as the starting QB for the 49ers, and the shine would be off of the superstar. The 49ers would be scrambling to figure out what to do with the product of their huge investment. YOU are also wondering what to do with that huge investment.

 

We have been in a Dynasty League holding pattern with Lance for, going on, 3 seasons. There is no new statistical analysis that can change that. Upside is the only argument to be made in Lance’s favor. It’s still a good one.

None of the events of the last three seasons have changed Lance’s POTENTIAL. He’s still the physical specimen that he was before, as noted above. He still has the same arm strength, the same foot speed and elusiveness, and the same brain that Kyle Shanahan dubbed highly intelligent.

He’s extremely intelligent. He knows how to handle situations. He knows how to carry himself. The guy that I see on tape that I tried to describe that I see such a natural quarterback, such a smart player.

Let’s look at Jordan Love, for an example. He is the same size as Lance, but as slow as Purdy. Love was drafted the year before Lance, and didn’t see the field as a rookie. He played sparingly in his next two seasons and has only seen regular season game action 10 times for the Packers. By every indication, however, he’s ready to start at age 24. He’ll turn 25 mid-season and Lance will be 25 just short of 2 years from now.

Lance has plenty of time to assume his final form. With his draft profile hampered by injury and team situation, he has an opportunity to add on to the improvements he’s made with his technique. He just needs reps. He’ll find them wherever he is because the NFL isn’t going to give up on him, and neither should you.

Buy low, sell high is the Dynasty mantra. This will be the lowest ever point for Lance’s value, until he retires.

 

 

Again, there is very little statistical basis to justify selling Lance. You could point to injury history or throwing interceptions against the Raiders in his first 2023 pre-season game. What it boils down to is that he doesn’t have a job, at the moment. He will be, for the time being, a roster suck. He won’t be startable in your lineup.

 

 

Rostered: depending on your league environment, Lance is a hold. If you have the roster depth to absorb a zero production wait-n’-see, wait it out. At this point, nobody wants him. Do not sell low.

Trades: Throw out offers, again if you can absorb the lack of production. If you can’t handle the roster spot, create a dynastyprosfootball.com Trey Lance alert and stay on top of the player news to scoop him off waivers as soon as he gets another opportunity.

Startup and Redraft: Avoid

 

Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

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Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

By Steve Uetz

 

James Conner may be one of the single easiest NFL players to root for. He is a truly inspiring individual who especially stands out due to his extraordinary personal journey fighting a cancer diagnosis through his college years while still being a very productive player in the NFL. James Conner is now the top RB in the fantasy-friendly Arizona Cardinals offense but does exhibit a unique Dynasty Dilemma despite churning out an impressive 2021 campaign.

 

In the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Amid this wave of positivity and stability surging through the Cardinals organization, Conner now stands alone at the top of the RB depth chart as he severely out-performed his initial 1-year “prove it” deal.

In the 2021 season Conner did play in a mostly part-time role but re-emerged as a fantasy football darling. Conner had a tremendous return on investment in single season leagues as he finished as an RB1 on the season, totaling 1,127 yards from scrimmage. Where he struggled in rushing efficiency, he made up for it with TDs and receiving work. He totaled 752 rushing yards on 202 rushing attempts with 15 TDs and caught 37 of 39 targets for 375 receiving yards and 3 TDs. He totaled a sub 50% snap share in 8 of his 15 games played. In the weeks that Chase Edmonds spent on IR (weeks 9-15), Conner averaged 78.5% snap share and averaged nearly 23 fantasy points per game.

Conner originally was slotted in to replace veteran RB Kenyan Drake as he was figured to serve a part-time role in the offense mixing in with Chase Edmonds. Now former teammate, Chase Edmonds hit the free agency market after the 2021 season and signed with the Miami Dolphins on a two-year deal. Conner, who was also set to hit the free agent market after the 2021 season returned to the Cardinals on a three-year deal! Sitting at the top of the depth chart with very little competition behind him (pre-2022 NFL draft), Conner enters the 2022 season as a high end RB2 option.

 

(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with James Conner boils down to two main factors for me. The primary hesitation I have with Conner from the dynasty perspective is his age which could create potential longevity concerns. The secondary hesitation is the reality of the Cardinals roster and lack of depth at the RB position.

Conner will enter the 2022 season at 27 years old, which doesn’t exactly worry me for the short-term and more specifically for this upcoming season. However, the worry comes from what his role in the NFL will look like 2-3 years from now. As I debate action regarding dynasty roster management, my decisions are ultimately made through the lens of a three-year time frame. It is important to weigh the cost-benefit of what is best for your roster over that time. This is especially important if you are rebuilding or are a middling team looking to gain an edge to compete.

Conner’s impressive 2021 season presents a great opportunity to sell high. Outside of the games where he “had the keys to the car” with Edmonds on IR, the swell of TDs made his weeks’, which was phenomenal but difficult to ultimately rely on. Congratulations if you rode the Conner TD wave, it certainly was gnarly.

Right now, a player like Conner is most appealing to a purely contending team. Not just because of his age, but also because of the reality of the Cardinals roster as they currently sit very thin at the running back position behind Conner. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals prioritize the RB position in the 2022 NFL draft (or especially in the 2023 draft). This of course is a big if but depending on which RB they draft and when said RB is drafted, Conner’s three-year window of success (for your dynasty roster) could diminish even sooner than I am already skeptical of. I hope I am wrong because as I stated before he is a guy I will perpetually be rooting for.

 

The potential acquisition of James Conner forces a fantasy GM to be self-aware and question the true quality of their roster. The original question to answer is “How to decipher the decision of prioritizing short-term vs long-term roster optimization?” Answer: James Conner is essentially an optimal short-term buy while being a risky long-term option.

Conner is absolutely a buy for strong contending rosters that are primarily aiming to win in the current season. The cost benefit could likely pay off for that solid contending team where it wouldn’t pay off for a middling team with potential to contend and especially not a rebuilding roster since I struggle to see legitimate long-term value.

Realistically across an average 12-team dynasty league, there may only be 3-4 legitimate strong contending teams which would leave 8-9 teams as middling contenders or rebuilding rosters. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the long-term risk is too great to acquire without the intention of winning it all in 2022.

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

By Bob Miller

 

As the NFL Draft approaches, dynasty owners wait with anticipation to see where these rookies end up. Where does Breece Hall end up.. how about Malik Willis? There are so many questions yet to be answered. One question that everyone seems to know the answer to is “Who is the overall RB1 in dynasty?” Jonathan Taylor seems to be the unanimous answer to that question, but I have my doubts. I know that may seem crazy, but here me out. It's obvious that buying Jonathan Taylor seems like a no-brainer. Not only am I going to give you some reasons to buy JT, but I'm going to give you some reasons to actually sell him as well.

 

 

Age

Taylor is entering his age 23 season and has his whole future ahead of him. Any educated Dynasty League owner knows that a running backs' dynasty value doesn't last very long. The younger the better. It seems that around that age 26-27 season is when we start seeing issues such as a declining skill set that results in the drafting of a younger, cheaper running back. The biggest issue as of late is their large cap number. Past stud running backs with these possible issues include Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. All of them could be traded or outright released this next offseason. With all that being said, it makes Jonathan Taylor worth that much more in dynasty.

 

Touches and Durability

Taylor is an unquestioned workhorse running back, which is rare these days. Some fantasy analysts had strong concerns that his usage in college would affect his performance/durability in the NFL. So far, those analysts have been wrong. In fact, last season Taylor had 372 total touches that included 332 carries and 40 receptions. His durability is not an issue as he has only missed one game in his two seasons so far. The sky could be the limit with Taylor running behind that elite offensive line in Indianapolis. You can plug him in as your RB1 for the next couple of seasons with very little concern. You can’t say that about many running backs these days.

 

 

 

Worst RB1 since 2015

This past season Taylor finished at 22.54 fantasy points per game.. the worst overall RB1 numbers since Devonta Freeman in 2015. Derrick Henry actually averaged 26.92 fantasy points per game last season before going down with his injury. In 2020 Taylor would have finished 4th behind McCaffrey, Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. Listen.. I’m not saying he stinks, but in PPR leagues, he just isn’t the unanimous RB1 to me. Although he should be a lock for 20 fantasy points a game, we could see Henry, McCaffrey, and Dalvin finishing ahead of him this coming season. Since this in dynasty, I still have JT ranked ahead of all three of those guys. With that being said, I can see a players like Najee Harris, Cam Akers, or Javonte Williams taking claim as the overall RB1 in PPR Dynasty this time next season.

 

Selling Price

With Taylor ranked as the dynasty RB1, it makes me wonder what I can get for him. That hype and dynasty ranking makes him more valuable than he may actually be. Why not dangle him out there and see if you can get a king’s ransom in exchange. I haven’t seen him move much in dynasty, however I have seen some incredible returns in the deals that I have seen. Just yesterday I saw Taylor traded for McCaffrey, Kelce, and Deebo Samuel. I’d take that all day. He was traded in another dynasty league I’m in for JK Dobbins, two mid 1sts, a 2nd, and a 2023 1st. Um.. yes please! After seeing these returns, I absolutely encourage you to see what kind of haul you can get for Taylor.

 

I’ve said this a million times.. I’m a businessman when it comes to dynasty. Not one player of mine is ever “off-limits”. I’m always in the business of making a profit when the opportunity presents itself. With that being said, don't trade Jonathan Taylor just for the sake of making a trade. We all have one of those guys in our leagues haha. Shop Taylor to see what you can get, and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. You’re not married to these guys, and everything can change with a snap of the finger, ask Christian McCaffrey owners. There is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping Taylor, as he should be a steady top 3-5 dynasty RB for the next few years. However if someone offers you the moon, smash the accept button.

 

 

You can follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBobFF

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

By Bob Miller

 

This offseason, we here at Dynasty Pros have produced a new series of articles titled “Dynasty Dilemmas”. It has been our most popular series to date. We give you an outside perspective on different players and answer the question “What do I do with this guy in my dynasty league? Should I sell high, buy low, or hold?”. The first player that came to my mind is perhaps the most intriguing name out there: Christian McCaffrey. 

 

The Reason to Sell

Last year there would have been very little debate on Christian McCaffrey. He was a fantasy stud, and anyone who had him considered themselves extremely lucky. Boy, how things can change in just a year. I am here to give you my personal opinion on what I would do with the man known as “CMC”.

 

Injuries

Well this is a layup. McCaffrey only played in three games in 2020, and seven games last season. That means he missed 23 of 33 possible games over the last two seasons. What's concerning to me is that these injuries were more ligament and soft tissue injuries. That scares me moving forward. If his hamstrings can't hold up we are in for yet another disappointing season ahead. That's just not going to cut it for a player that you have to spend a first-round pick on. Frankly I'd be scared to spend a second-round pick on him. 

 

Coaching

Panthers hired former Giants head coach Bob MacAdoo for their offensive coordinator position. Not the best news considering what a fantasy flop Saquon Barkley has been over the last couple of seasons. Who knows what kind of game plan they will put together on a weekly basis. Will they feed McCaffrey, pepper him with targets, or take a more conservative approach to avoid possible injuries? No matter the case, this is a situation we should probably try to avoid as much as possible. You can't win your fantasy league with your first round pick, but you sure as heck can lose your league because of your first round pick. Most of the CMC owners I have seen over the last couple of years have finished with some of the worst records of the season.

 

(Photo by: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images)

 

The Reason to Buy

McCaffrey is truly a one-of-a-kind player. There's not a player that comes close to what kind of production McCaffrey can give you. He is only 25 years old which means he could have several productive seasons still ahead. We all know his potential, especially in PPR leagues. Why would we not try to get this guy if we have the opportunity?

 

He is a League Winner

McCaffrey is as elite of a fantasy player as you can get. He has won a lot of people fantasy championships and money. His production, especially in PPR leagues, is second to none. 2019 McCaffrey finished with 471 fantasy points. Who was 2nd you ask? Aaron Jones, with 314 fantasy points. That is a substantial gap between first and second. That's what you call a League winner. When McCaffrey is on the field he has averaged nearly 30 PPR points per game over the last three seasons. It doesn't get any better than that. 

 

His Price Tag

Someone in almost every dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Christian McCaffrey. That’s what you like to see. If you are a serious Dynasty League player, then you should know that every player has a value of some sort. Whether that value is high or low, you may be able to find a use for almost anyone. A major part of dynasty strategy is buying low and selling high. If you can get McCaffrey at a big discount, why not look into it? Right now the reward actually may outweigh the risk. Getting him at a good discount right now is not the worst idea. He can only help you. You won't have much of an investment in him, and that's a good thing. If you roster him as your second RB or Flex, you're less likely to lose your season if something bad happens.

 

Verdict

I am a McCaffrey owner in several Dynasty leagues, and I have wrestled with myself on what to do with him over the last several months. After much thought I just can't allow myself to get burned again. Listen, I have no problem in someone acquiring McCaffrey at a big discount, and if you are a McCaffrey owner I have no problem with you holding him as well. With all of that being said my decision is to sell McCaffrey, but I am waiting for him to show everyone that he's healthy. Once the season starts, I will strike to maximize my profit. McCaffrey has already burned me twice. I will not allow it to happen a third time.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

by Bob Miller

 

Wow! Can this offseason get any crazier? There seems to be a trade, signing, or crazy rumor at all times right now. If you blink, you may miss something. The Kansas City Chiefs are a team that hasn’t been left out. They seem to be tied to every big free agent or some kind of rumor. They recently signed JuJu Smith-Schuster which I thought could cut into Hill’s production slightly, but now comes the BIG NEWS: Tyreek has been traded to the Miami Dolphins for multiple draft picks.

So this poses the question: What do we do with Tyreek Hill in Dynasty? Do we buy, sell, or hold?

 

Tyreek has dominated for several years now with Mahomes slinging him the rock, but he has a new quarterback and a new system to learn. Will he be used the same way he was in Kansas City? That’s a big question.

 

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa can’t sneeze without someone judging him, and for good reason. Miami has invested a lot into Tua as their Franchise Quarterback. Tua has to feel the heat. Miami was trying to land Deshaun Watson for a long time with no success. That can’t be sitting well with Tua.. just ask Baker Mayfield. Miami has given Tua everything he needs to be successful. They’ve given him an elite Left Tackle and a Superstar Wide Receiver. Tua has been wildly inconsistent so far, and that scares me if I’m a Tyreek Hill owner.

 

Production

One of my major concerns is that Tua Tagovailoa just does not have the arm strength to get the ball downfield to Tyreek. He will try, but I feel he will underthrow Tyreek too much. Let’s face it.. Most of Tyreek’s production came from chunk plays. Patrick Mahomes threw a lot of homeruns to the man. Mahomes would make amazing plays on a weekly basis by escaping a blitz or pass rush, scramble for a few seconds, and chuck the ball downfield to Tyreek for a huge play. This seemed to happen every single week. Tua Tagovailoa is no Patrick Mahomes, so I just can’t see Tyreek putting up those kinds of numbers again.

 

 

 

Tyreek Hill owners are in a panic right now. They have no idea what to do with him. I’m seeing a flurry of activity with Tyreek in my Dynasty Leagues already. These are my thoughts on why you should look into buying Tyreek right now.

 

You can get him at a discount

I’ve already seen a dynasty trade today that sent Tyreek to the other team for two 2nd round rookie picks. I’d take Tyreek all day at that price, maybe even a late 1st if I had a need at WR. Whatever the price for Tyreek is, it’s definitely a lot lower than it was this time yesterday. Tyreek’s production takes a hit no doubt, but he will still put up some numbers that could help your fantasy team. You shouldn’t be eliminating him altogether. 

 

Production

Listen.. Tyreek is still going to produce. He most likely will not produce the same numbers as he did in Kansas City, but produce nonetheless. With the money he’s making, Miami is going to target him often. I see a lot of screen plays for him which are easy PPR points. I could see him getting between 7-10 targets a game which could lead to around 5 rec per game. You multiply 5 x 17 games, and that’s 85 receptions. If this happens, how could he not flirt with 1,000 yards? Heck, Jaylen Waddle had 104 recs and 1015 yards in this offense last season. I’d take that any day.

 

As much as I like to buy players at a discount, I’m just too concerned on what to expect from Tyreek. The combination of Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Cedrick Wilson makes me doubt that Tyreek will be a WR1 ever again. You combine that with his poor character, and I could see Tyreek blowing up and becoming a problem for Miami down the road. In the end, there's just way too many questions and concerns to rely on Tyreek Hill being a weekly start in fantasy.