Fantasy Values

Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

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Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

By Steve Uetz

 

James Conner may be one of the single easiest NFL players to root for. He is a truly inspiring individual who especially stands out due to his extraordinary personal journey fighting a cancer diagnosis through his college years while still being a very productive player in the NFL. James Conner is now the top RB in the fantasy-friendly Arizona Cardinals offense but does exhibit a unique Dynasty Dilemma despite churning out an impressive 2021 campaign.

 

In the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Amid this wave of positivity and stability surging through the Cardinals organization, Conner now stands alone at the top of the RB depth chart as he severely out-performed his initial 1-year “prove it” deal.

In the 2021 season Conner did play in a mostly part-time role but re-emerged as a fantasy football darling. Conner had a tremendous return on investment in single season leagues as he finished as an RB1 on the season, totaling 1,127 yards from scrimmage. Where he struggled in rushing efficiency, he made up for it with TDs and receiving work. He totaled 752 rushing yards on 202 rushing attempts with 15 TDs and caught 37 of 39 targets for 375 receiving yards and 3 TDs. He totaled a sub 50% snap share in 8 of his 15 games played. In the weeks that Chase Edmonds spent on IR (weeks 9-15), Conner averaged 78.5% snap share and averaged nearly 23 fantasy points per game.

Conner originally was slotted in to replace veteran RB Kenyan Drake as he was figured to serve a part-time role in the offense mixing in with Chase Edmonds. Now former teammate, Chase Edmonds hit the free agency market after the 2021 season and signed with the Miami Dolphins on a two-year deal. Conner, who was also set to hit the free agent market after the 2021 season returned to the Cardinals on a three-year deal! Sitting at the top of the depth chart with very little competition behind him (pre-2022 NFL draft), Conner enters the 2022 season as a high end RB2 option.

 

(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with James Conner boils down to two main factors for me. The primary hesitation I have with Conner from the dynasty perspective is his age which could create potential longevity concerns. The secondary hesitation is the reality of the Cardinals roster and lack of depth at the RB position.

Conner will enter the 2022 season at 27 years old, which doesn’t exactly worry me for the short-term and more specifically for this upcoming season. However, the worry comes from what his role in the NFL will look like 2-3 years from now. As I debate action regarding dynasty roster management, my decisions are ultimately made through the lens of a three-year time frame. It is important to weigh the cost-benefit of what is best for your roster over that time. This is especially important if you are rebuilding or are a middling team looking to gain an edge to compete.

Conner’s impressive 2021 season presents a great opportunity to sell high. Outside of the games where he “had the keys to the car” with Edmonds on IR, the swell of TDs made his weeks’, which was phenomenal but difficult to ultimately rely on. Congratulations if you rode the Conner TD wave, it certainly was gnarly.

Right now, a player like Conner is most appealing to a purely contending team. Not just because of his age, but also because of the reality of the Cardinals roster as they currently sit very thin at the running back position behind Conner. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals prioritize the RB position in the 2022 NFL draft (or especially in the 2023 draft). This of course is a big if but depending on which RB they draft and when said RB is drafted, Conner’s three-year window of success (for your dynasty roster) could diminish even sooner than I am already skeptical of. I hope I am wrong because as I stated before he is a guy I will perpetually be rooting for.

 

The potential acquisition of James Conner forces a fantasy GM to be self-aware and question the true quality of their roster. The original question to answer is “How to decipher the decision of prioritizing short-term vs long-term roster optimization?” Answer: James Conner is essentially an optimal short-term buy while being a risky long-term option.

Conner is absolutely a buy for strong contending rosters that are primarily aiming to win in the current season. The cost benefit could likely pay off for that solid contending team where it wouldn’t pay off for a middling team with potential to contend and especially not a rebuilding roster since I struggle to see legitimate long-term value.

Realistically across an average 12-team dynasty league, there may only be 3-4 legitimate strong contending teams which would leave 8-9 teams as middling contenders or rebuilding rosters. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the long-term risk is too great to acquire without the intention of winning it all in 2022.

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jonathan Taylor

By Bob Miller

 

As the NFL Draft approaches, dynasty owners wait with anticipation to see where these rookies end up. Where does Breece Hall end up.. how about Malik Willis? There are so many questions yet to be answered. One question that everyone seems to know the answer to is “Who is the overall RB1 in dynasty?” Jonathan Taylor seems to be the unanimous answer to that question, but I have my doubts. I know that may seem crazy, but here me out. It's obvious that buying Jonathan Taylor seems like a no-brainer. Not only am I going to give you some reasons to buy JT, but I'm going to give you some reasons to actually sell him as well.

 

 

Age

Taylor is entering his age 23 season and has his whole future ahead of him. Any educated Dynasty League owner knows that a running backs' dynasty value doesn't last very long. The younger the better. It seems that around that age 26-27 season is when we start seeing issues such as a declining skill set that results in the drafting of a younger, cheaper running back. The biggest issue as of late is their large cap number. Past stud running backs with these possible issues include Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones. All of them could be traded or outright released this next offseason. With all that being said, it makes Jonathan Taylor worth that much more in dynasty.

 

Touches and Durability

Taylor is an unquestioned workhorse running back, which is rare these days. Some fantasy analysts had strong concerns that his usage in college would affect his performance/durability in the NFL. So far, those analysts have been wrong. In fact, last season Taylor had 372 total touches that included 332 carries and 40 receptions. His durability is not an issue as he has only missed one game in his two seasons so far. The sky could be the limit with Taylor running behind that elite offensive line in Indianapolis. You can plug him in as your RB1 for the next couple of seasons with very little concern. You can’t say that about many running backs these days.

 

 

 

Worst RB1 since 2015

This past season Taylor finished at 22.54 fantasy points per game.. the worst overall RB1 numbers since Devonta Freeman in 2015. Derrick Henry actually averaged 26.92 fantasy points per game last season before going down with his injury. In 2020 Taylor would have finished 4th behind McCaffrey, Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. Listen.. I’m not saying he stinks, but in PPR leagues, he just isn’t the unanimous RB1 to me. Although he should be a lock for 20 fantasy points a game, we could see Henry, McCaffrey, and Dalvin finishing ahead of him this coming season. Since this in dynasty, I still have JT ranked ahead of all three of those guys. With that being said, I can see a players like Najee Harris, Cam Akers, or Javonte Williams taking claim as the overall RB1 in PPR Dynasty this time next season.

 

Selling Price

With Taylor ranked as the dynasty RB1, it makes me wonder what I can get for him. That hype and dynasty ranking makes him more valuable than he may actually be. Why not dangle him out there and see if you can get a king’s ransom in exchange. I haven’t seen him move much in dynasty, however I have seen some incredible returns in the deals that I have seen. Just yesterday I saw Taylor traded for McCaffrey, Kelce, and Deebo Samuel. I’d take that all day. He was traded in another dynasty league I’m in for JK Dobbins, two mid 1sts, a 2nd, and a 2023 1st. Um.. yes please! After seeing these returns, I absolutely encourage you to see what kind of haul you can get for Taylor.

 

I’ve said this a million times.. I’m a businessman when it comes to dynasty. Not one player of mine is ever “off-limits”. I’m always in the business of making a profit when the opportunity presents itself. With that being said, don't trade Jonathan Taylor just for the sake of making a trade. We all have one of those guys in our leagues haha. Shop Taylor to see what you can get, and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. You’re not married to these guys, and everything can change with a snap of the finger, ask Christian McCaffrey owners. There is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping Taylor, as he should be a steady top 3-5 dynasty RB for the next few years. However if someone offers you the moon, smash the accept button.

 

 

You can follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBobFF

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian McCaffrey

By Bob Miller

 

This offseason, we here at Dynasty Pros have produced a new series of articles titled “Dynasty Dilemmas”. It has been our most popular series to date. We give you an outside perspective on different players and answer the question “What do I do with this guy in my dynasty league? Should I sell high, buy low, or hold?”. The first player that came to my mind is perhaps the most intriguing name out there: Christian McCaffrey. 

 

The Reason to Sell

Last year there would have been very little debate on Christian McCaffrey. He was a fantasy stud, and anyone who had him considered themselves extremely lucky. Boy, how things can change in just a year. I am here to give you my personal opinion on what I would do with the man known as “CMC”.

 

Injuries

Well this is a layup. McCaffrey only played in three games in 2020, and seven games last season. That means he missed 23 of 33 possible games over the last two seasons. What's concerning to me is that these injuries were more ligament and soft tissue injuries. That scares me moving forward. If his hamstrings can't hold up we are in for yet another disappointing season ahead. That's just not going to cut it for a player that you have to spend a first-round pick on. Frankly I'd be scared to spend a second-round pick on him. 

 

Coaching

Panthers hired former Giants head coach Bob MacAdoo for their offensive coordinator position. Not the best news considering what a fantasy flop Saquon Barkley has been over the last couple of seasons. Who knows what kind of game plan they will put together on a weekly basis. Will they feed McCaffrey, pepper him with targets, or take a more conservative approach to avoid possible injuries? No matter the case, this is a situation we should probably try to avoid as much as possible. You can't win your fantasy league with your first round pick, but you sure as heck can lose your league because of your first round pick. Most of the CMC owners I have seen over the last couple of years have finished with some of the worst records of the season.

 

(Photo by: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images)

 

The Reason to Buy

McCaffrey is truly a one-of-a-kind player. There's not a player that comes close to what kind of production McCaffrey can give you. He is only 25 years old which means he could have several productive seasons still ahead. We all know his potential, especially in PPR leagues. Why would we not try to get this guy if we have the opportunity?

 

He is a League Winner

McCaffrey is as elite of a fantasy player as you can get. He has won a lot of people fantasy championships and money. His production, especially in PPR leagues, is second to none. 2019 McCaffrey finished with 471 fantasy points. Who was 2nd you ask? Aaron Jones, with 314 fantasy points. That is a substantial gap between first and second. That's what you call a League winner. When McCaffrey is on the field he has averaged nearly 30 PPR points per game over the last three seasons. It doesn't get any better than that. 

 

His Price Tag

Someone in almost every dynasty league is terribly frustrated with Christian McCaffrey. That’s what you like to see. If you are a serious Dynasty League player, then you should know that every player has a value of some sort. Whether that value is high or low, you may be able to find a use for almost anyone. A major part of dynasty strategy is buying low and selling high. If you can get McCaffrey at a big discount, why not look into it? Right now the reward actually may outweigh the risk. Getting him at a good discount right now is not the worst idea. He can only help you. You won't have much of an investment in him, and that's a good thing. If you roster him as your second RB or Flex, you're less likely to lose your season if something bad happens.

 

Verdict

I am a McCaffrey owner in several Dynasty leagues, and I have wrestled with myself on what to do with him over the last several months. After much thought I just can't allow myself to get burned again. Listen, I have no problem in someone acquiring McCaffrey at a big discount, and if you are a McCaffrey owner I have no problem with you holding him as well. With all of that being said my decision is to sell McCaffrey, but I am waiting for him to show everyone that he's healthy. Once the season starts, I will strike to maximize my profit. McCaffrey has already burned me twice. I will not allow it to happen a third time.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tyreek Hill

by Bob Miller

 

Wow! Can this offseason get any crazier? There seems to be a trade, signing, or crazy rumor at all times right now. If you blink, you may miss something. The Kansas City Chiefs are a team that hasn’t been left out. They seem to be tied to every big free agent or some kind of rumor. They recently signed JuJu Smith-Schuster which I thought could cut into Hill’s production slightly, but now comes the BIG NEWS: Tyreek has been traded to the Miami Dolphins for multiple draft picks.

So this poses the question: What do we do with Tyreek Hill in Dynasty? Do we buy, sell, or hold?

 

Tyreek has dominated for several years now with Mahomes slinging him the rock, but he has a new quarterback and a new system to learn. Will he be used the same way he was in Kansas City? That’s a big question.

 

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa can’t sneeze without someone judging him, and for good reason. Miami has invested a lot into Tua as their Franchise Quarterback. Tua has to feel the heat. Miami was trying to land Deshaun Watson for a long time with no success. That can’t be sitting well with Tua.. just ask Baker Mayfield. Miami has given Tua everything he needs to be successful. They’ve given him an elite Left Tackle and a Superstar Wide Receiver. Tua has been wildly inconsistent so far, and that scares me if I’m a Tyreek Hill owner.

 

Production

One of my major concerns is that Tua Tagovailoa just does not have the arm strength to get the ball downfield to Tyreek. He will try, but I feel he will underthrow Tyreek too much. Let’s face it.. Most of Tyreek’s production came from chunk plays. Patrick Mahomes threw a lot of homeruns to the man. Mahomes would make amazing plays on a weekly basis by escaping a blitz or pass rush, scramble for a few seconds, and chuck the ball downfield to Tyreek for a huge play. This seemed to happen every single week. Tua Tagovailoa is no Patrick Mahomes, so I just can’t see Tyreek putting up those kinds of numbers again.

 

 

 

Tyreek Hill owners are in a panic right now. They have no idea what to do with him. I’m seeing a flurry of activity with Tyreek in my Dynasty Leagues already. These are my thoughts on why you should look into buying Tyreek right now.

 

You can get him at a discount

I’ve already seen a dynasty trade today that sent Tyreek to the other team for two 2nd round rookie picks. I’d take Tyreek all day at that price, maybe even a late 1st if I had a need at WR. Whatever the price for Tyreek is, it’s definitely a lot lower than it was this time yesterday. Tyreek’s production takes a hit no doubt, but he will still put up some numbers that could help your fantasy team. You shouldn’t be eliminating him altogether. 

 

Production

Listen.. Tyreek is still going to produce. He most likely will not produce the same numbers as he did in Kansas City, but produce nonetheless. With the money he’s making, Miami is going to target him often. I see a lot of screen plays for him which are easy PPR points. I could see him getting between 7-10 targets a game which could lead to around 5 rec per game. You multiply 5 x 17 games, and that’s 85 receptions. If this happens, how could he not flirt with 1,000 yards? Heck, Jaylen Waddle had 104 recs and 1015 yards in this offense last season. I’d take that any day.

 

As much as I like to buy players at a discount, I’m just too concerned on what to expect from Tyreek. The combination of Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Cedrick Wilson makes me doubt that Tyreek will be a WR1 ever again. You combine that with his poor character, and I could see Tyreek blowing up and becoming a problem for Miami down the road. In the end, there's just way too many questions and concerns to rely on Tyreek Hill being a weekly start in fantasy. 

 

2022 1st Round Pick Comparisons

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2022 1st Round Pick Comparisons

By Darren Smith

 

With the NFL draft only a few weeks away, Dynasty managers are preparing for their upcoming rookie drafts. This time of year is when draft picks get traded for veteran players, as picks are at their highest value with rookie fever affecting just about everyone. While this might not be the most loaded draft class, there is still some huge talent that is about to enter the NFL. Dynasty managers, including myself, sometimes have trouble valuing their picks when they are trading them away, or when they are acquiring new picks. 

 

Everyone has different values, but I want to make some comparisons to current players so managers have a baseline to gauge the value of their picks. You don’t want to ship out your valuable 1st round picks for too little, but you also don’t want to overvalue them in trade offers to turn your leaguemate away from the trade. Here are some pick to player comparisons so you know how to value your picks when making trades. Each draft pick will have a comparable Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Quarterback. For the purpose of this article, I am assuming a Super Flex PPR league.

 

1.01 Comparable Values

DeAndre Swift - Swift is a solid top running back that has valuable receiving talent in PPR leagues.

Cooper Kupp - Kupp was the top WR in 2021, but is getting a bit older so will only have a few more seasons of elite production.

Dak Prescott - Versatile QB that is more valuable than any rookie QB in this draft. High powered, high scoring offense.

 

1.02 Comparable Values

Joe Mixon - With Joe Burrow leading the offense, Mixon will continue to have the opportunity to score touchdowns, similar to his 13 in 2021.

Devonte Adams - While he no longer has Rodgers throwing him the ball, Adams will continue to have elite production in Las Vegas for years to come.

Deshaun Watson - Deshaun would be worth the 1.01 with his new contract in Cleveland, but still could miss time by NFL suspension.

 

1.03 Comparable Values

Dalvin Cook - Outside of Breece Hall, there are no other RBs in this class that I’d rather have over Dalvin. However his age and injury history may catch up to him in the near future.

Jalen Waddle - With the addition of Tyreek Hill, Waddle will be poised to have an excellent season if Tua can get him the ball.

Russell Wilson - Moving to Denver may result in some growing pains under a new offense, but Wilson should continue his elite production throwing to Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.

 

1.04 Comparable Values

Nick Chubb - Being one of the most talented RBs in the NFL, Chubb is only held back by Kareem Hunt stealing touches.

Tee Higgins - I want anyone Joe Burrow is throwing the ball to. With Chase garnering the attention of the secondary, Higgins could explode in 2022.

Matthew Stafford - Now a superbowl winner and the addition of Allen Robinson, Stafford should remain a top QB option until retirement.

 

1.05 Comparable Values

Derrick Henry - The King returns in the 2022 season despite injury. At 28 years old and still producing incredible numbers, Henry is perfect for a “Win Now” dynasty team.

Diontae Johnson - With Big Ben out of the picture, Johnson will hopefully have a larger depth of target. The Steelers are in the market for a rookie QB in this draft.

Jalen Hurts - The Eagles have made moves to build around Hurts and should be adding some weapons and protection for him in this draft.

 

1.06 Comparable Values

David Montgomery -  With the Bears having one of the weakest WR cores in the NFL - Montgomery should be getting huge volume in 2022, and is shockingly only 24 years old.

Devonta Smith - The Eagles should be adding a WR in this draft, but Smith will remain Hurts’ main target in this offense.

Aaron Rodgers - Losing Adams is a huge blow, but the Packers should add a top receiver in this draft. Aaron is guaranteed to play at least two more seasons, and I expect him to remain a top 8 QB.

 

1.07 Comparable Values

Josh Jacobs -  The Raiders have been building their offense including the O-Line, so Jacobs should have his usual carries with some passing work mixed in.

Mike Evans - The return of Tom Brady is enormous for Red-Zone threat Mike Evans. Chris Godwin may not return until November, so Evans should be the focal point in this offense.

Tua Tagovailoa - The addition of Tyreek Hill is huge for Tua’s game. This is his year to prove that he has what it takes to be the franchise QB for Miami.

 

1.08 Comparable Values

Travis Etienne - Coming off foot surgery, Travis is poised to be a bell-cow in the Jaguars offense and should take most of James Robinson’s carries away.

Keenan Allen - One of the most underrated WRs in the NFL, Keenan Allen will remain as consistent as ever being Justin Herbert’s favorite target.

Kirk Cousins - Kirk signed a contract extension and should remain a fringe QB1 with elite receiver Justin Jefferson out wide.

 

1.09 Comparable Values

Ezekiel Elliot - Zeke showed signs of slowing down, but Jerry Jones remains confident that he will be on the field with large volume.

DeAndre Hopkins - DeAndre battled injury in 2021, but I am projecting he bounces back in a big way. Playing only 10 games, he still scored 8 TD’s with the best hands in the NFL.

Derek Carr - The addition of Adams is an invaluable asset to Carr’s passing game. Carr will have a huge jump in value if he gets his contract extension that has been in talks for months with the Raiders organization.

 

1.10 Comparable Values

Leonard Fournette - Coming off one of his most productive seasons ever, Tom Brady returning, and getting a contract extension all make Fournette a perfect RB for a “Win Now” team.

Elijah Moore - Moore had a great second half of his rookie season, however the Jets have shown interest in adding a top WR like Tyreek Hill which is concerning for Dynasty Managers expecting him to be one of the sole targets in New York.

Mac Jones - Jones didn’t have the flashiest rookie season, but it seems like New England wants him as their guy. We should give Mac another chance to shine in 2022.

 

1.11 Comparable Values

Elijah Mitchell - Mitchell exploded in the 49ers rushing attack in 2021, but given Kyle Shanahan’s history of a rotating carousel at the position, there are some longevity concerns.

Marquise Brown - Most managers aren’t high on Brown, and I’ve acquired him for 2nd round picks. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, Hollywood will remain his favorite target and is worth a 1st round pick for me.

Tom Brady - Not many expected the Goat to return, but here he is. At 44 years old and his weapons signed to new contracts, Brady is a top QB option until he decides to hand up the cleats.

 

1.12 Comparable Values

James Conner - Signed to a contract extension and with Chase Edmonds now in Miami, Connor should have a huge 2022 season and could repeat his insane rushing TD numbers (15).

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Kansas City traded away their top WR in Tyreek Hill, and JuJu is now catching passes from the best arm in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill - While not the flashiest option, Tannehill is still a solid QB that you can add to your team for a cheap price.

 

If you have a contending team and are feeling confident about your shot at the title this season, but you have some 1st round picks in your back pocket, use these comparable values to add some depth to your team to make a run. If you are in the rebuilding stage but you still have a solid older veteran on your team, send an offer for a first round pick to further your rebuild. While everyone has different values, use this article as a baseline for your trades so you don’t get fleeced for your draft pick, and also don’t turn off another owner by sending a bad trade offer. Agree with me? Totally disagree on my values? Tweet your thoughts to me @FFBirdGang.

Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Lamar Jackson 

by Tim Lazenby

 

The National Football League is one filled with a rich history.  When a feat is accomplished it is unlikely that it hasn’t been done already.  The NFL is actually over 100 years old and the merger that caused the league as we know it today was over half a century ago.  Needless to say, and understating the obvious, records aren’t easily broken and true history isn’t likely to be carved anymore.  But, it does happen.  One of these trailblazers still here is none other than Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

 

The Reason to Sell

Before last season, I don’t think there was any reason to have such a debate.  Lamar Jackson showed nothing but improvement and prowess; exactly the type of player you want leading your dynasty to the ultimate fantasy prize.  Questions of looming health and long term value have begun creeping in and it’s time to address the question of Lamar Jackson’s value.  Just what do we do with the quarterback from Louisville?

 

Poor Protection

Despite having many talents, we all know the greatest strength to Lamar Jackson’s game is his ability to run the ball.  The opposing team needs to change it’s whole defensive scheme to account for that one unicorn in Baltimore.  The sad truth is that a runner can only be as effective as his protection.  Defenses have not only brought more pressure each and every year Lamar has played, he’s payed the price in a higher sack rate as well.  Last season he was sacked an extra 40% more than he was in his MVP season.  His ineffective offensive line also forces his hand more.  Decisions to throw or not turn into a hurried run play due to lack of time and blocking.  How much longer can Lamar Jackson take the pressure until it plummets his fantasy football value? 

 

Lack of Receivers

Not every team in the NFL has the same talents and depth at positions as others.  Each and every team, no matter how strong, has weaknesses and one of the glaring ones in Baltimore is its lack of receiving depth.  Without a plethora of hands to throw to, Lamar is forced to funnel too many targets at Andrews and rush the ball more than he should.  Even back to college, he was a monster running the ball, but he was a very underrated passer.  The depth at Louisville didn’t consist of one target hog, making Lamar much more of a swiss army knife, rather than a running back playing quarterback; as he’s been called.  Until the Ravens bring in more talent to catch, Lamar will be penned in.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Name another quarterback like Lamar Jackson.  I’d be reluctant to name one; that’s for sure.  Although there are others who share elements of his game, Lamar Jackson is truly one of a kind.  Players like Kyler Murray have had flashes, but not like Lamar Jackson.  And rushing aside, his arm, vision and leadership are greatly underestimated.  Freshly turned 25, the sky is truly the limit.  We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what he can really do.  And with so many elite options at the position being a limited number, shouldn’t we pounce while we can?  Many would say absolutely.

 

Dual Threat

I’ve alluded to it many times, but if you didn’t know or have never seen him play, Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest running quarterback of all time.  Michael Vick really broke the mold first in this style, and Cam Newton continued the legacy, but Lamar has virtually perfected it.  Lamar is one of two quarterbacks to run 1000 yards in a single season, and Lamar has done it twice.  In fact, had he played a full season, he averaged to do it for a third time in a row.  In fantasy, points are hard to come by as a quarterback, so if you add rushing, they pile up that much faster.  Throughout his career, he’s never averaged less than double digits per game in rush attempts.  And last season, with less games played, he broke more tackles and had a better yards after contact ratio.

 

Proven Winner

Lamar Jackson has a history of reigning.  Although he’s yet to claim the Superbowl, in fantasy, we only care about the regular season.  In college, he won the Heisman Trophy, for MVP at that level, in only his sophomore season.  And fantasy managers were rewarded in his first full season in the NFL.  Lamar was so insanely good that he won the NFL MVP at only 22.  In fact, he was only the second player in league history to win the award unanimously.  There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson is the type of player who is not content unless he’s getting better every year.  When you think about making a move for a cornerstone dynasty player, what more can you ask for?

 

Verdict

I’ll admit it, despite all his success in college, I agreed with the Ravens waiting so long to draft him. Due to his play style, there are more risks involved; not just with injury, but learning how to let the plays evolve and making the smarter decision for the long term.  Looking back now, it’s insane that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen went significantly higher.  Baltimore even took tight end Hayden Hurst before drafting Lamar.  It just goes to show that evaluating talent at the NFL level is not an exact science.

 

Lamar Jackson is one of the best players, not only at his position, but in the entirety of the National Football League.  A truly unique specimen, Jackson is one to be sought after and envied by anyone who doesn’t have him.  I face this dilemma though.  If it were redraft, there aren’t too many quarterbacks I’d like more, but in dynasty, long term value is a considerable factor.  Rush first quarterbacks simply do not last as long as ones that are not.  I would rather have a dual threat quarterback, but at an equivalent price, I lean toward one that will last.  At his current price point in dynasty, it gives me no option than to consider selling, but the deal has to be right.  There has to be an elite quarterback gained in return, however I’m sure I can get one back with draft capital too.

 

.. as long as the price is right.