Fantasy Football

Sneaky Starts for Week 1 Lineups

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Sneaky Starts for Week 1 Lineups

We have finally made it—week 1 of the NFL season. The drafts are wrapping up, your teams are set, and redraft trades are in motion. The NFL season is here, and let's talk about some Sneaky Starts for week one. 

Josh Allen is a must-start… obviously. This article isn't about the obvious starters here. I will not tell you to start the Allen, as mentioned above, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Jefferson, or Josh Jacobs. Those guys are must and obvious starts. This article is about some guys that did not have the draft capital and may have question marks for year-long plays (I do dive into why they are as well) but for week one. It may win your matchup.

As we all know, starting in the win column in fantasy is significant; a close victory or a blowout, a win is a win. This article is here to help you with just that. Here is a player from every offensive position (and flex spot) that could win your matchup this week. 

QB - Sam Howell

There may not be more hype for a player after preseason than Sam Howell, and for good reason. Sam Howell produced points when the first team offense was on the field. His stats speak for themselves. In the two preseason games he played against the Browns, Ravens his stat lines are as follows: 

9/12 77 yards 1 TD

19/25 188 yards 2 TD

Howell secured his starting role and got to rest the third game so he would be healthy and ready for the regular season. So what? Why should you start him in your lineups this week, and why am I starting him over Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers? There are a few reasons.

Reason 1: Opponent

Washington is playing Arizona. After Zaven Collins and Budda Baker, the Arizona defense is in rough shape. While also trading away Isaiah Simmons for practically nothing, the Cardinals will not be very good this year. Only when Kyler Murray returns will the defense play less and not wear down. 

Reason 2: Player Personnel

Howell has two running backs, Brian Robinson for between the tackles and Antonio Gibson for gadget, outside, and screen game. The real depth is at wide receiver. Terry Mclaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel are all great options for a new quarterback. Mclaurin is a perfect outside receiver, Dotson the inside, and Samuel the Swiss army knife. Howell has the weapons in the backfield, out wide, and at the line of scrimmage with Cole Turner and Logan Thomas at tight end. 

Reason 3: Coach

Eric Bieniemy is now the offensive coordinator for the Commanders. His offenses have been dynamic in recent years as the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. Although Andy Reid gets all the credit for the Chiefs offense, which is why Bieniemy had to leave, he will be taken seriously as a head coaching candidate. Bieniemy has something to prove. Howell has good athleticism, and Bieniemy will put him in a position to win.

If you have Sam Howell in Superflex, Howell will be a great Superflex player all year. If you have Burrow as QB1 and Howell as your QB2, will Burrow be 100%? Howell may be the play week one if the Bengals play it safe, or if Burrow does play, he has an injury that reaggravates easily. 

RB - Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams was an obvious choice here. Williams brings charisma and professionalism to a backfield that needed a player like that. The reasons why you should start him are as follows:

Reason 1: Playing Time

We know Williams will be the starter for at least the first three games because of the suspension of Alvin Kamara. Frankly, after the first three weeks, I don't see him being that bad of an option either. Kamara's best years were when Mark Ingram and he split touches, and I feel Jamaal can do that for the Saints again. Williams is a must-start with this and the lingering injury to Kendre Miller.

Reason 2: Track Record

Jamaal Williams's track record as a viable running back option has always been good. In his four years in Green Bay and two years in Detroit, he has yet to have a season under 100 touches. In that six-year career as well, he has 30 touchdowns. I don't expect a repeat of last year's 17 touchdowns, but he will have a workload, especially in week one against the Titans. Williams will not be affected by a decent defense.

The zero-running-back truthers are loving this one. Williams is the epitome of the strategy. Jamaal Williams will be the bellcow in week 1 for the Saints, and he could easily play 80% of snaps, so he will get his chances to fill the stat sheet. 

WR - Courtland Sutton

The reasons are evident for Sutton, and we will get to those in a second, but Sutton gets on this list for where he is also going in drafts. I picked him up in drafts as early as round 11 to round 14, and for a WR2 in most weeks on his team, that is a value I will always hit the draft button for. Here are a few more reasons why: 

Reason 1: Injuries

The Denver Broncos are one of the teams that have been thwarted by the injury bug this preseason, especially at the wide receiver position. Jerry Jeudy will be questionable with his hamstring injury; they lost KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick, possibly forever. They also cut many of the guys who have had NFL reps, like Kendall Hinton. Purely based on who is there, Sutton is a good start candidate. 

Reason 2: Offensive Coaching

Sean Payton, whether you love or hate, knows how to coach, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. He had one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Drew Brees, and had a WR1 in New Orleans for multiple years before injuries started playing a factor. That wide receiver was Michael Thomas. Based on reports, Payton has had Sutton watching old Thomas films. If that is the case, Sutton, a big-bodied wide receiver, might have a great year. 

Reason 3: Opponent

We have yet to determine what the Raiders will be this year. McDaniels's track record as a head coach could be better, and they have yet to do much to improve their defense this offseason. Their front seven is good, but must improve on the back end. Marcus Peters is good but injury-prone. We will see if he can produce like he once did. Peters gives up big plays, and no one in the Raiders' secondary can cover Sutton in week one. Nate Hobbs will try, but this is another case of the offense getting significantly worse, so how long will they be on the field? I expect a long time, which will stretch out the field for Sutton to eat up those slant routes. 

It's purely based on who is available for week 1 for the Broncos. Sutton is an excellent wide receiver. Especially in leagues, you have to start three in. Wide receivers are the cream of the crop now in fantasy; finding depth and playing the right ones is significant between winning and losing. Sutton helps you win week 1.

TE - Dalton Schultz

On a new team that is rebuilding, Dalton Schultz has been a sneaky dynasty tight-end pickup all year. A career with 211 receptions, 2122 yards, and 17 touchdowns is decent; this could be a breakout year for many reasons. Here is why I think he is a better play than some other high-tier guys in week 1: 

Reason 1: Security Blanket

Schultz has had a quiet offseason since he signed his deal. That is not good on a team with many new faces. We also all know the cliche that tight ends are a quarterback's security blanket. That holds with Schultz this year, especially with a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud. Schultz is athletic and will be a mismatch on safeties and linebackers, and Stroud will need Schultz to dump it off when the play breaks down. Schultz is good enough to make opposing defenders miss when he needs to gain some extra yards.

Reason 2: Personnel

Dalton was this coaching staff's first "real" acquisition. The other backups are from the old regime and hold no bearing on Schultz being the TE1 on this team. That said, there is nothing at wide receiver that provides us to say that Schultz won't be the top pass catcher on this offense. I wrote a Dynasty Dilemma on Nico Collins on why he is a sell target for me. Behind Collins, the Texans have Robert Woods and many unproven guys in Tank Dell, John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, etc. Schultz has a real shot at being good all year, especially in week 1. 

After Robert Woods on this team, Dalton Schultz is the most tenured offensive weapon. I would expect a huge game from him in week one. I would start him over Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts. Waller is also on a new team, but unlike Schultz, Waller has more competition with Daniel Bellinger. Especially here in week 1, we will see how the chemistry is between Jones and Waller. I anticipate the Schultz and Stroud connection to be stronger in week one. Kittle was hit-and-miss last year, primarily because of injury, and I don't see that changing. In addition, Brock Purdy has weapons in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey to exploit, as well as Kittle. In Kyle Pitts, I want to see rookie year Pitts before he becomes an automatic start.

Houston does have a tough matchup against the Ravens, but if I'm the Ravens defensive coordinator, I'm not letting a tight end not named Travis Kelce beat me. That is a win every day of the week. Expect a big week one from Dalton Schultz.

Flex - WR Brandin Cooks

I like Mr. Reliable for a flex play this week. Another new team and the clear number 2 option, with the contract drama out of the way. Cooks is going to have a monster week one, and here is why:

Reason 1: Personnel

There are many mouths to feed on the Cowboys' offense. Ceedee Lamb is going to get plenty of volume, and so is Tony Pollard. They both offer different things for the Cowboys' offense that make it dynamic, but they both do very well to create and use the space they have with the revolving door around the tight end position and no real reliable options in the passing game. They will need to find someone who can bail out Dak Prescott. That, my friend, is Brandin Cooks. He takes the pressure off the Lamb, Pollard, and Prescott to always make a play.

Reason 2: Productivity

Brandin Cooks has been in the league longer than he has. He is already going into his 10th NFL season, but it feels like his 15th. The difference between him and Robert Woods or Allen Robinson is that Cooks still has his fastball. In his nine-year career, six have been 1000-yard seasons, and he has consistently produced, but no one has ever believed him to be an elite WR1. Like previous years, I expect some big and mediocre games in the season. This week will be significant because people need to remember how good Cooks can sometimes be.

Cooks will be the afterthought in the week one matchup against the Giants. New York should be more worried about stopping Tony Pollard and Ceedee Lamb, who have torched them in the past. Unlike other years, Lamb has no competition for his WR1 role like in the years with Amari Cooper, and has more reliable options than just him, like last year. Brandin Cooks is the forgotten weapon for the Cowboys, especially here in week 1. He will show the NFL why you need a game plan to stop him during week prep. 

There you have it. Your week 1 "sneaky starts." Although I will not be held liable for your losses if you start these guys, I do hope they prove to be the guys that win you your matchups!

Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies, Rome Odunze vs. Jalen McMillan

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Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies, Rome Odunze vs. Jalen McMillan

Welcome to Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies. This is a recurring series in which we pit two college players against each other and advise you on the strategy necessary to acquire each. At the end, we'll help you choose which player to prioritize, but by all means, if you can get both, do that.

An NCAA football program can have much bigger problems than which of your 2024 NFL draft locks at wide receiver should your 2024 1st round quarterback prioritize in the passing game. Welp. That's the conundrum that the University of Washington Huskies football program and star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. are dealing with.

The Huskies receiving corps is led by Rome Odunze, Junior wide receiver who was a 4-star recruit from Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Jalen McMillan, another 4-star recruit from San Joaquin Memorial High School in Fresno, California. Much like the Ohio State Buckeyes with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, both of whom are competing for touches, the Huskies are in the enviable position of trotting two of the 10 best college receivers onto the field every Saturday. This puts US in the UNENVIABLE position of figuring out where to devote our energy in Devy and College fantasy leagues.

That's why we're here. We want you to be primed to make the best decision. Will it be Odunze? Will it be McMillan? The answer may surprise you. LET'S GET IT ON!

 

 

If there is an edge to be found here, I haven't found it. Production differences are negligible with no advantage to either. Odunze is  little taller, McMillan is a little faster. This matchup reminds me of Harrison/Egbuka in almost every way.

 

The Case for Rome Odunze

I want to build a prototypical NFL WR prospect. He needs to produce. I'm looking for speed below a 4.6 second 40-yard dash. Odunze ran a reported 4.45. I want a minimum size of 175 pounds or over 6 feet in height. Odunze clears both of those easy. Lastly, I want a receiver to have competition on his team from other NFL projectable receivers. Odunze has McMillan. The only two places where Odunze falls short is in breakout age and as an early declare. He didn't breakout until he was 20 years old, and that may have been as a Sophomore, but it was his 3rd year in the program, after red-shirting. He also will be declaring after 4 years, not 3.

Those profile boxes left unchecked matter a little, but not significantly. Sometimes, as is the case with both Odunze and McMillan, they can be subject to the system and it's not a matter of talent. The point is, Odunze's profile is good.

On the field, where it matters most, Odunze is a very polished receiver. He is good against press coverage and wins at the line of scrimmage with explosive acceleration and violent hands. He has enough wiggle to separate before the catch and to evade tacklers and create YAC. He's also a legitimate deep threat with good ball-tracking skills, uses his hands well, and is acrobatic. There's a lot to like, and in 2022 he averaged 15.3 yards per catch.

In Devy

As far as how you should strategize your draft, Odunze doesn't rise to the level of his Ohio State counterparts, but he is still a nice 2nd round target. If MHJ or Egbuka are on the board, but if not, look for Odunze. His Fantrax ADP of 15 leaves room for volatility as I've seen him taken with the 21st pick and the 26th pick which hints at mild value.

The time to trade for him is now, as another huge year and high draft capital next Summer will put him in a range similar to where Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison are right now.

 

The Case for Jalen McMillan

Let's now take a look at how McMillan fits into my profile. Speed? Check. Size? Check. Breakout age? Same. Declare? Same. Competition? Same. It's almost like we're dealing with clones. Where Odunze has the edge, barely, is in his size and production. McMillan, however, is faster. He also has a knack for route running and using a DB's technique against him to create space. He's a human joystick-type with quick feet and stop-start ability. He reaches his top speed quickly and smoothly coming out of breaks and uses his hands well to catch. He can jump and has long arms for his size so he can high-point in contested catch situations.

To contrast the two teammates, they both can do a lot of the same things, but I think McMillan has just a few more tools in his toolbox. That doesn't necessarily translate to value, it just gilds his profile a little bit and moves him closer to Odunze, in my eyes as opposed to consensus.

In Devy

McMillan is an incredible value. He has the potential to overtake Odunze statistically, but he doesn't have the ADP or cache. A firm late-2nd round ADP and creating some 3rd round value allow you to take other players earlier and not sacrifice production. He's in the perfect position to allow you to target the elite QBs and RBs first, and take him later.

If you own him, hold. If you can trade for him, do it now.

 

WINNER

Push. You're going to get production from both. They're ridiculously even. If you have a later round pick in your Devy draft, don't be afraid to take them both as your WRs 1 and 2. If you have an early pick in the first round, take an elite QB, an elite RB, Marvin Harrison, Jr. or Emeka Egbuka in the 1st and then be pleased if Odunze falls or McMillan is available. In our DynastyPros C2C Writers League, I took Odunze at 2.09 and McMillan went at 3.10.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance

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Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance (Updated)

UPDATE: Per Adam Schefter, Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Schefter’s report was released at 4:22 pm on 8/25/2022, about 3 and a half hours before this article was posted. It is important to note that the trade does not change the following analysis. The only change is the potential for Lance to start if there is an injury to Dak Prescott. You may proceed as outlined.

The year is 2000. A young man walks into a fortune teller’s shop on his town’s main street. Not in the downtown area, but on the edge of town. The man sits down at the crystal ball and the fortune teller lays out the wildest tale. She tells the young man, an expectant father that he will have a son. That son will grow up to be a highly coveted quarterback. That quarterback will earn a starting position for his national champion college team as a sophomore, lead that team to a 16-0 record and another national championship, and throw 28 touchdowns that year without throwing an interception in 287 attempts. The boy would also rush for 1100 yards that season and add 14 more touchdowns. The young man is stunned.

The fortune teller goes on to tell the man that his son will enter the 2021 NFL Draft at the age of 20, and be picked by the San Francisco 49ers with the 3rd overall pick, after trading 2 first round picks and 2 other picks to move up and draft their guy. He will eventually grow into a man standing 6’4″, weighing 225 pounds, and running a 4.5 second 40-yard dash. Now the young father-to-be is bewildered. His son is going to be a superstar!

 

 

6 months earlier, a different expectant father goes into a different fortune teller’s shop. The fortune teller explains that HIS son is going to be 6’1″, run a 4.85 40, have an unheralded college career on a normal 4-year track, and be passed on in HIS draft 261 times, before the 49ers draft him to be a backup, maybe, and he’ll earn the nickname given the last pick, “Mr. Irrelevant.” This young father is also bewildered. He wanted a superstar. Now he’s convinced he’s got a palooka.

 

 

Neither fortune teller would see that 23 years later, the palooka would be announced as the starting QB for the 49ers, and the shine would be off of the superstar. The 49ers would be scrambling to figure out what to do with the product of their huge investment. YOU are also wondering what to do with that huge investment.

 

We have been in a Dynasty League holding pattern with Lance for, going on, 3 seasons. There is no new statistical analysis that can change that. Upside is the only argument to be made in Lance’s favor. It’s still a good one.

None of the events of the last three seasons have changed Lance’s POTENTIAL. He’s still the physical specimen that he was before, as noted above. He still has the same arm strength, the same foot speed and elusiveness, and the same brain that Kyle Shanahan dubbed highly intelligent.

He’s extremely intelligent. He knows how to handle situations. He knows how to carry himself. The guy that I see on tape that I tried to describe that I see such a natural quarterback, such a smart player.

Let’s look at Jordan Love, for an example. He is the same size as Lance, but as slow as Purdy. Love was drafted the year before Lance, and didn’t see the field as a rookie. He played sparingly in his next two seasons and has only seen regular season game action 10 times for the Packers. By every indication, however, he’s ready to start at age 24. He’ll turn 25 mid-season and Lance will be 25 just short of 2 years from now.

Lance has plenty of time to assume his final form. With his draft profile hampered by injury and team situation, he has an opportunity to add on to the improvements he’s made with his technique. He just needs reps. He’ll find them wherever he is because the NFL isn’t going to give up on him, and neither should you.

Buy low, sell high is the Dynasty mantra. This will be the lowest ever point for Lance’s value, until he retires.

 

 

Again, there is very little statistical basis to justify selling Lance. You could point to injury history or throwing interceptions against the Raiders in his first 2023 pre-season game. What it boils down to is that he doesn’t have a job, at the moment. He will be, for the time being, a roster suck. He won’t be startable in your lineup.

 

 

Rostered: depending on your league environment, Lance is a hold. If you have the roster depth to absorb a zero production wait-n’-see, wait it out. At this point, nobody wants him. Do not sell low.

Trades: Throw out offers, again if you can absorb the lack of production. If you can’t handle the roster spot, create a dynastyprosfootball.com Trey Lance alert and stay on top of the player news to scoop him off waivers as soon as he gets another opportunity.

Startup and Redraft: Avoid

 

Devy Battle: Bitter Buckeyes, Marvin Harrison, Jr. vs. Emeka Egbuka

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marvin-harrison-jr-explodes-to-put-ohio-state-up-big-in-peach-bowl-sports-world-sounds-off
Michigan v Ohio State

Devy Battle: Bitter Buckeyes, Marvin Harrison, Jr. vs. Emeka Egbuka

Welcome to the first Devy Battle. This is a recurring series in which we pit two college players against each other and advise you on the strategy necessary to acquire each. At the end, we'll help you choose which player to prioritize, but by all means, if you can get both, do that.

Throughout the decades, certain schools can show themselves to be adept at production of high-level players from different position groups. For example, in the 80's and 90's, the University of Miami was referred to as "WR U" after producing a high concentration of NFL wide receivers including Michael Irvin, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson, among many others. Cal spent some time as "RB U" thanks to Marshawn Lynch, Russell White, JJ Arrington, CJ Anderson, Shane Vereen, Jahvid Best, and Justin Forsett, all of whom showed off their various talents in the NFL over a 20 year span. Currently, Iowa is considered "TE U," and Penn State and Notre Dame have traditionally been known as schools that produce top linebackers. With apologies to Alabama, LSU, and the historicity down in Miami, the newest incarnation of "WR U" is Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have spent the last 6 years producing some of the best receiving talent in the game. Terry McLaurin and Parris Campbell got the ball rolling, only to be followed by Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jameson Williams of the 2022 rookie class, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023. I count Williams because he was originally a Buckeye before seeing the writing on the wall in 2021 and transferring to Alabama. The 2021 Freshman class included the subjects of our Devy Battle today, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, both of whom should enter the 2024 NFL Draft. What Williams could, presumably, foresee was a packed WR room and that he wasn't going to be the alpha in said room.

Ohio State has a combination of an incredible recruiting pedigree that makes it an attractive school to attend and an elite WR coach in former NFL wide receiver Brian Hartline, who is cementing his name as the best in the business at coaching up future NFLers. The two elements add up to create an environment where receivers thrive, and NFL teams have noticed. None of the players taken in the 2022 or 2023 drafts that started their careers as Buckeye WRs were drafted later than the first round. That trend should hold true for Harrison, Jr. and Egbuka, as those two are considered among the top 5 receivers available and are ranked #1 and #2 in our DynastyPros Devy WR Rankings.

Now, consensus has Harrison, Jr., son of NFL Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison, as the #1 WR in the class. He is the presumptive leader in the Buckeyes WR room and should be the first WR taken overall next year. That doesn't mean that Egbuka is a slouch, nor that you should focus on MHJ in your Devy draft. We're here to break down this matchup of the two receivers at the same school, so...LET'S GET IT ON!

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Harrison, Jr.
NAME
Emeka Egbuka

21
AGE
20.75

6'4"
HEIGHT
6'1"

205
WEIGHT
206

88
CATCHES
83

1,402
YARDS
1,342

17
TDs
10

X/Split End
NFL ARCHETYPE
Z/Flanker

4.41/81%
REPORTED 40 TIME
4.3/97%

There's not much that can be gleaned here. At 6'4", MHJ is kind of a freak. Egbuka is a little thicker. Their stats are eerily similar, although MHJ has turned a higher percentage of his catches into TDs. While MHJ was primarily used as a Z in 2022, he certainly has the size, agility, and ability to break press-coverage to play the X in the NFL. Similarly, Egbuka ran most out of the slot, but his speed, thickness, and rushing touches in 2022 make him a Z in the NFL.

 

 

The Case for Marvin Harrison, Jr.

When it comes to projecting MHJ, the primary arguments boil down to height and pedigree. Digging deep into the profile hints at an even more promising future. Harrison, Jr. has produced a 135.5 QB Rating when targeted. His hands at the catch point are absolutely elite. He is adept at short routes and has top of the class skills on intermediate and deep routes run. He has been called the best player in college football and is projected to be taken in the top 10 of the 2024 draft. Fantrax has MHJ projected to score 22.3 ppg in 2023. His NFL comp is faster, more agile Michael Thomas.

In Devy

Plan on drafting Harrison in the first 5 picks in your Devy startup. Those first picks seem to come down to a preference of position. In a QB heavy draft, Harrison likely won't last past the 5th pick. If QBs aren't the focus, he'll likely be the 1st or second pick off the board, as he was in our DynastyPros Campus2Canton startup.

If you're looking to trade for him in Devy leagues it's going to take a major offer. According to the DynastyPros Trade Calculator, Harrison's value is prohibitive. If you have a 24 1st and a spare Patrick Mahomes to throw around, you might get MHJ.

 

 

The Case for Emeka Egbuka

While shorter than Harrison, Egbuka has a higher BMI and is faster and more explosive. He also has a really impressive ability to break tackles. He runs violently and with aggression and has elite YAC ability. OSU gave him 11 run plays throughout 2022 which he turned into 87 yards and 2 TDs. He is also an asset in the run game as an effective blocker which will endear him to NFL coaches. His hands are above average and his route running is elite at every level in the route tree. He plays a very complimentary role to Harrison. Fantrax has Egbuka projected to score 20.6 ppg in 2023. His NFL comp is faster, Deebo Samuel.

In Devy

It's unlikely you would have a chance of rostering both OSU receivers without trading. If you have a pick later than the 1.05 you will need to trade up, or offer a trade after the draft to get Egbuka. While it won't cost you as much as Harrison, it will still require a Mahomes OR a 2024 first, not both.

 

WINNER

Marvin Harrison, Jr., but you knew that.

 

Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Headlines Trio Of Buckeyes 'Freaks' - Sports Illustrated Ohio State Buckeyes News, Analysis and More

Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

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Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

By Tim Lazenby

 

The consensus among experts is that Josh Allen is the QB1 in dynasty.  This statement is definitely not unfounded, as we’ll discuss.  When looking at contenders for the crown of top quarterback in dynasty, there are a few.  Many would put Patrick Mahomes right at the top.  Other names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and even Joe Burrow have popped up.  But, I think the biggest contender is none other than Justin Herbert.

Since Justin Herbert only has two seasons in the National Football League, let’s take a moment to break down the first two seasons for Justin Herbert and his top competition, Josh Allen, as passers.  

 

Passing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

YearAgeGSW/L/TAttCompYrdsTDsIntTD%Comp%1DLongY/AY/CY/GRateSk
201822115-6-0320169207410123.152.889756.512.3172.867.928
2019231610-6-046127130892094.358.8146536.711.4193.185.338

 

 

Justin Herbert

YearAgeGSW/L/TAttCompYrdsTDsIntTD%Comp%1DLongY/AY/CY/GRateSk
202022156-9-0595396433631105.266.6216727.310.9289.198.332
202123179-8-0672443501438155.765.9256727.511.3294.997.731

 

When it comes to prowess in the passing game, although Allen has greatly improved, he wasn’t even close to the same level in his first two seasons as Justin Herbert was in his.  Even now, Allen’s passing game, whether it be from the system or his talent itself, doesn’t approach the numbers that Justin Herbert has put out.  I’d still take Josh Allen over the vast majority of the league as a passer, but he’s quite a distance away from Herbert, at least by the numbers.

Let’s not forget about the running game for both Allen and Herbert though.  We all know that a rushing quarterback is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.  It’s a talent that can’t be ignored when considering dynasty QB1 status.  Here are the stats for each as a rookie and sophomore.

 

Rushing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year

AgeGSRushYrdsTDs1DLongYrds/AYrds/GAvg/GYACFumb Lost
2018221189631841457.152.67.42806
20192316109510942364.73196.824310

Justin Herbert

YearAgeGSRushYrdsTDs1DLongYrds/AYrds/GAvg/GYACFumb Lost
2020221555234520314.315.63.7575
2021231763302328364.817.83.7481

 

 

When it comes to the running game, it’s not even close.  Josh Allen is far superior in this regard.  While he’s not at the level of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or even Jalen Hurts, he rules supreme among the duo we’re talking about and is still a top option in the entire NFL in this regard.  It is important to note, however, that the rushing game of Justin Herbert is underrated and respectable: quite in the realm of what you look for in that elite quarterback when paired with their passing game.

Conclusion

It’s a tale of two very different entrances into the NFL.  Josh Allen’s beginning was very difficult.  With Kelvin Benjamin, as a journeyman at that point, and an aging LeSean McCoy as the best options, you can see why he struggled out of the gate.  The defense also ranked in the middle of the pack, often leaving Allen without his best shot at success.  His continued improvement is fantastic, and even though I’m only highlighting his first two seasons, I don’t need to tell you how good he’s become.  The current team surrounding him is also very good.  The Buffalo Bills don’t have many holes and they should win their division; clearing the way for another year of fantasy success for Josh Allen.  I’m sure we can expect similar production from Allen, but that’s the problem.  I don’t see things getting any better.

For the first time in 16 years, someone other than Philip Rivers was QB for the Chargers and Herbert was better than most predicted, even behind the league’s worst offensive line.  In his first two seasons, Herbert was sensational and he’s only gotten better.  He didn’t need a couple years to develop.  He’s simply always been amazing and he’s only getting better.  Coupled with the unbelievable off season that Tom Telesco has given to the Chargers, I can’t see Herbert’s stock doing anything else but skyrocket.  The offensive weapons have quietly improved, but the defense is the most helpful part to aid in Herbert’s continued success.  If the Chargers don’t finish as the league’s best defense it’d be surprising, but even if they don’t, they are light years better.  This will keep Herbert on the field more, hence scoring more fantasy points than ever before.

In today’s NFL, dual threat quarterbacks are all the rage, but some are just so good that they don’t need to rely on it.  Take the discount now and bank on Justin Herbert as dynasty’s QB1 moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

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Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

By Steve Uetz

 

James Conner may be one of the single easiest NFL players to root for. He is a truly inspiring individual who especially stands out due to his extraordinary personal journey fighting a cancer diagnosis through his college years while still being a very productive player in the NFL. James Conner is now the top RB in the fantasy-friendly Arizona Cardinals offense but does exhibit a unique Dynasty Dilemma despite churning out an impressive 2021 campaign.

 

In the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Amid this wave of positivity and stability surging through the Cardinals organization, Conner now stands alone at the top of the RB depth chart as he severely out-performed his initial 1-year “prove it” deal.

In the 2021 season Conner did play in a mostly part-time role but re-emerged as a fantasy football darling. Conner had a tremendous return on investment in single season leagues as he finished as an RB1 on the season, totaling 1,127 yards from scrimmage. Where he struggled in rushing efficiency, he made up for it with TDs and receiving work. He totaled 752 rushing yards on 202 rushing attempts with 15 TDs and caught 37 of 39 targets for 375 receiving yards and 3 TDs. He totaled a sub 50% snap share in 8 of his 15 games played. In the weeks that Chase Edmonds spent on IR (weeks 9-15), Conner averaged 78.5% snap share and averaged nearly 23 fantasy points per game.

Conner originally was slotted in to replace veteran RB Kenyan Drake as he was figured to serve a part-time role in the offense mixing in with Chase Edmonds. Now former teammate, Chase Edmonds hit the free agency market after the 2021 season and signed with the Miami Dolphins on a two-year deal. Conner, who was also set to hit the free agent market after the 2021 season returned to the Cardinals on a three-year deal! Sitting at the top of the depth chart with very little competition behind him (pre-2022 NFL draft), Conner enters the 2022 season as a high end RB2 option.

 

(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with James Conner boils down to two main factors for me. The primary hesitation I have with Conner from the dynasty perspective is his age which could create potential longevity concerns. The secondary hesitation is the reality of the Cardinals roster and lack of depth at the RB position.

Conner will enter the 2022 season at 27 years old, which doesn’t exactly worry me for the short-term and more specifically for this upcoming season. However, the worry comes from what his role in the NFL will look like 2-3 years from now. As I debate action regarding dynasty roster management, my decisions are ultimately made through the lens of a three-year time frame. It is important to weigh the cost-benefit of what is best for your roster over that time. This is especially important if you are rebuilding or are a middling team looking to gain an edge to compete.

Conner’s impressive 2021 season presents a great opportunity to sell high. Outside of the games where he “had the keys to the car” with Edmonds on IR, the swell of TDs made his weeks’, which was phenomenal but difficult to ultimately rely on. Congratulations if you rode the Conner TD wave, it certainly was gnarly.

Right now, a player like Conner is most appealing to a purely contending team. Not just because of his age, but also because of the reality of the Cardinals roster as they currently sit very thin at the running back position behind Conner. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals prioritize the RB position in the 2022 NFL draft (or especially in the 2023 draft). This of course is a big if but depending on which RB they draft and when said RB is drafted, Conner’s three-year window of success (for your dynasty roster) could diminish even sooner than I am already skeptical of. I hope I am wrong because as I stated before he is a guy I will perpetually be rooting for.

 

The potential acquisition of James Conner forces a fantasy GM to be self-aware and question the true quality of their roster. The original question to answer is “How to decipher the decision of prioritizing short-term vs long-term roster optimization?” Answer: James Conner is essentially an optimal short-term buy while being a risky long-term option.

Conner is absolutely a buy for strong contending rosters that are primarily aiming to win in the current season. The cost benefit could likely pay off for that solid contending team where it wouldn’t pay off for a middling team with potential to contend and especially not a rebuilding roster since I struggle to see legitimate long-term value.

Realistically across an average 12-team dynasty league, there may only be 3-4 legitimate strong contending teams which would leave 8-9 teams as middling contenders or rebuilding rosters. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the long-term risk is too great to acquire without the intention of winning it all in 2022.

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!