Evan Engram

Waiver Wire Adds: Week 1

by

Waiver Wire Adds: Week 1

By Tim Lazenby

 

The 2022-23 Season is officially upon us tomorrow and although waiver wire adds aren't really necessary at this point, it can't hurt to have some names in mind.  Keep in mind, most of these players should be available except for deeper leagues.  Some of these players can pay immediate dividends, while others are only an injury away from greatness.  If you're looking to stay ahead of the game, keep these names in your back pocket.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Devin Duvernay - Baltimore Ravens @ NY Jets

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

For many, the Ravens receiving room is still wide open.  We all know that Rashod Bateman is the receiver to have in Baltimore, but you're kidding yourself if you think Lamar Jackson will only be throwing to Bateman and Mark Andrews.  There's also the possibility that they spread the ball more as Bateman is untested.  The team, and the league for that matter, loves Duvenay for what he does on special teams and I think he's ready to turn heads on the offense.

 

Jarvis Landry - New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta

The last couple seasons haven't been spectacular for Landry, but it's hard to place the entire blame on him.  Moving into a situation with a rejuvenated and healthy quarterback, paired with a fantastic opportunity, many are sleeping on Juice.  It may take Michael Thomas time to take the reigns, if he even can.  And Chris Olave, although talented, may take time to gain trust.  This leaves Landry with an excellent landing spot and super cheap for you.  It doesn't hurt that his next game is at Detroit either.

 

Jalen Guyton - Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas

Oh so many weapons for Justin Herbert!  The name that is often lost is Guyton.  Last season, he served very admirably as the number three, but with the emergence of dynasty darling, Josh Palmer, many are leaving Guyton at the draft table.  Make no mistake, there is plenty to go around at the table for the Chargers and you can have a great piece in Guyton for free in many cases.

 

Jamison Crowder - Buffalo Bills @ LA Rams

The Buffalo Bills are in need of a slot receiver with Emmanuel Sanders no longer employed by the team.  And while the fantasy accolades at wide receiver usually go to Stefon Diggs, Sanders did quite well in his own rite for Josh Allen.  The dynasty community may have already crowned a different winner, but Crowder already has the experience and has shown he can succeed in the slot with less than great quarterback play.

 

Running Backs

 

Ameer Abdullah - Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers

Abdullah, like many running backs for the list will have a difficult time succeeding immediately, but with the release of Josh Jacobs' old handcuff that we'll talk about shortly, the door is wide open for Abdullah.  Sure, there is rookie competition, but with the team making massive improvements and Abdullah costing next to nothing, it makes a lot of sense to snatch him up while you can.

 

Kenyan Drake - Baltimore Ravens @ NY Jets

Drake is an anomaly.  He never gets to stay in one place very long, but when given the opportunity, he can make the most of it.  We all want JK Dobbins to succeed, but in the off chance he doesn't, there aren't too many backups that can make the most of it like Drake can.  And Baltimore is a running back's dream come true.  Just ask Devonta Freeman managers how they enjoyed his time there.

 

D'Ernest Johnson - Cleveland Browns @ Carolina

In his limited starting capacity last season, Johnson was stellar.  And with Kareem Hunt asking for a trade officially, this opens the door to the possibility of handcuff anxiety in Cleveland.  We all also know that as much as we want Nick Chubb to get the entire backfield to himself, he actually thrives on sharing and getting the golden touches.  When Hunt moves Johnson will be unobtainable, so get him while you can.

 

Sony Michel - Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas

So far Michel has been somewhat of a fantasy flop thus far.  And since leaving the Patriots, it's been a whirlwind of movement but now he lands with the Chargers.  Most leagues have already prepared themselves with Joshua Kelley as Austin Ekeler's handcuff, but he hasn't made the best of his opportunities thus far in his career.  And while Michel hasn't been stellar either, I wouldn't mind a piece of this offense that is free in some leagues.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Jameis Winston - New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta

If you are playing superflex, virtually no starting quarterbacks will be available, but in one quarterback or smaller leagues, you may be lucky enough to have Winston available.  Last year he was a new man and now he has the best weapons he has arguably ever had.  With a weak week one, even if you don't intend to keep him, he could turn you a nice profit if he's able to dominate the game like he should.

 

Carson Wentz - Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville

Just like with Winston, in many leagues you won't be able to get Wentz, but I was surprised to see how low the ownership was on him.  Many consider this Wentz's last chance, but don't fool yourself into thinking he was terrible last season.  While there was bad games, he also had some great ones too.  He now has more to throw to in a less run heavy offense and Jacksonville should ease him into his new role.  Week 2 he plays Detroit too, so that doesn't hurt his chances of getting off on the right foot.

 

Tight Ends

 

David Njoku - Cleveland Browns @ Carolina

The situation for a receiver in Cleveland certainly isn't peachy for the first 11 weeks.  But Jacoby Brissett isn't as bas as people make him out to be.  With a massive new contract and a new receiver room, I'm certain that the Browns will lean heavily on Njoku like they haven't done before.  If you missed out on one of the top tight ends earlier, Njoku is a cheap option that will massively outperform his expectations from the community.  Also, week two gives him the chance to play the NY Jets, so that should help.

 

Evan Engram - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington

Engram has been truly maddening to fantasy managers in the past.  He took us on highs and lows, but since his rookie season, he's been less than consistent to understate the obvious.  The new change of scenery with a generational quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and lack of star power should be just what the doctor ordered to kickstart his career back into TE1 relevance.

Is It Evan Engram SZN Once Again?

by

Is It Evan Engram SZN Once Again?

By Tim Lazenby

When it comes to players that I just unequivocally love in fantasy, there are a few on my list.  Whether it is because of a rookie performance I can’t forget; the fact that they won me a championship; the situation being fantastic; or any number of criteria; there are just some players that I preach their gospel for year in and year out.  Ironically, there was a player who finally fell out of my good graces last season, but with a couple changes, they are right back in the passenger seat as we ride off into fantasy football glory in 2022-23.

Evan Engram is quite polarizing in the fantasy community, and for good reason.  As a rookie, although he was highly anticipated, not many could have predicted just how successful he would be.  While the depth chart looked promising for Engram to have success, he still had to overcome the fact that Eli Manning wasn’t what he once was.  The 2017 New York Football Giants also didn’t have the strongest supporting cast in giving Manning his best shot at 36 years old.  Well, despite the odds, Engram was an absolute beast in his rookie season.

We’ve Seen What He Can Do

And when I say beast, I’m not over-exaggerating.  In case you’ve forgotten or didn’t

know, here’s how he did in his rookie season; even while missing two games:

Targets - 115 (2nd) Receptions - 64 (6th) Yards - 722 (5th) Touchdowns - 6 (7th) 

Fantasy Points - 109.6 (5th)

If you follow the game by position, you know that the tight end is the one that takes the longest to develop, so it’s especially fantastic that he had so much success as a rookie.  But if you really want a dose of reality, here is how he fared at the time among rookie tight ends in the history of the league.  Remember, he missed two games:

Targets - (2nd place) Receptions - (3rd place) Yards - (6th place) Touchdowns - (11th place) 

Fantasy Points - (1st place)

That’s right.  You read correctly.  Evan Engram had the most PPR fantasy points as a rookie in the history of the entire league; although that has since been surpassed by “best tight end prospect ever” Kyle Pitts, but only by 3 points.  All that being said, if you thought you knew how good he was as a rookie, I’ll bet most of you had forgotten just how good he actually was.

It Gets Rough Thereafter

But the problem comes after his rookie season.  In 2018, his targets would be cut nearly in half and his touchdowns would be literally halved.  The following season, the yards went down by over 100 from 2018, which was already terrible compared to his stellar rookie year.  Admittedly, I thought I was really smart in 2018 as I drafted him and OJ Howard back to back picks in my home league only to be stuck with regret for most of the season.  Last year, for the first time, I finally turned my back on my Evan Engram soapbox and focused elsewhere.

Truthfully, I didn’t really pay attention to the lovechild who had deceived me for all of 2020 until it was all over.  To my surprise, Evan Engram almost matched his rookie season in targets and was close in yards.  His one touchdown was quite appalling, but considering the Giants’ quarterbacks only had 12 on the season, it was forgivable.  So in 2021, although I didn’t jump back on the soapbox, which had been torched by the way, I was glad that I wasn’t completely deceived by Evan Engram.   

2021 drafts arrived, but I couldn’t pull the trigger on Engram.  The golden child burned me too often and I wasn’t about to drink the Kool-Aid again.  And thankfully, at least for me, Evan Engram did not repeat 2017 or 2020.  The numbers weren’t the worst in the league, but they weren’t befitting of tight end royalty or even close to TE1 status.

So as I’ve rambled on for far too long now about why he isn’t worth drafting, rostering or trading for, I can’t send him up the river anymore.  And despite having long burned down my Evan Engram soapbox, I’ve built a new one and once again stand proudly singing his praises.  In 2022, Evan Engram’s situation is given new life with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Let’s talk about why now is the time to move for Evan Engram.

It’s a New Day...Yes it is!

No disrespect intended on the previous quarterback play that Engram has endured, but Trevor Lawrence far surpasses them all.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not talking about Eli Manning’s entire career here.  I’m talking about just the years he played with Engram.  Moving forward, despite having a dismal season last year, Trevor Lawrence will bounce back in style.  The first generational quarterback prospect in years is certainly worth taking the gamble on rejuvenating Evan Engram somewhat closer to his fantasy prowess.

Doug Pederson also comes to Jacksonville to save the day at coach.  Not only have they gotten rid of the plague that is Urban Meyer, they also gained a Super Bowl winning coach who loves utilizing his tight end.  Even though he’s always been good, if you ask Zach Ertz which years were his most productive in the NFL, he’d have to tell you they were under Pederson.  Pederson has already shown he’s not dependent on one guy to win, all the while displaying his ability to make players shine.  He’s also a guy who loves his players and this will bode well for Engram who is eager for that.

Lastly, the surrounding cast is a big upgrade for Evan Engram now that he’s leaving the Giants for the Jaguars.  Aside from the fact that I’d rather have the Jags’ team overall than the Giants’ if I were playing, the Giants have made great improvements to their receiving weapons.  The Jaguars have also improved, don’t get me wrong, but they need Evan Engram far more than the Giants do.  The recipe is there for Engram to get more opportunities in the passing game where he is rather than where he was.

Final Thoughts

So the final verdict?  I’m not suggesting Evan Engram is going back to 2017, but I am saying he is a strong play to flirt with TE1 status.  He’ll have to overcome the hurdle of Dan Arnold, but I don’t think that’s as big of a mountain as others do.  But the best part is his cost.  

If you’re in redraft, he is basically free.  I’m seeing him go beyond round 15 and sometimes much lower.  And in dynasty, ironically enough, he’s cheaper in some circumstances.  The tight end position is a crap shoot every year once you get past the first tier or two.  So, it’s even harder to find that true gold over fool’s gold.

There is no better value at tight end in 2022 than Evan Engram.

AFC South Best Values

by

AFC South Best Values

By Tim Lazenby

Now that we’re knee deep into the off season, many of us are looking for any taste of fantasy football relevance whatsoever.  A wise dynasty manager, however, needs more than just a taste to satisfy their football hunger pains.  We, as managers, should always be looking to improve our ever evolving fantasy franchises.  Whether you are trying to get out of the basement, finally be a playoff contender or even repeat as champion, the common thread is that a winning manager doesn’t sit on his riches.  And in this crucial time before the NFL Entry Draft, you should be looking at value players to add to your team.  Today, let’s dive into the best values for each team in the AFC South.

 

Houston Texans: Quarterback – Davis Mills

What a whirlwind it’s been for the Houston Texans.  The drama of Deshaun Watson seemed to have overtaken every aspect of the team’s story, but now that Watson has moved on with the Cleveland Browns, we can finally think about anything else in Houston.  The situation is quite dire on the outside, but if we dig a little deeper, there are diamonds covered in coal dust.  There weren’t many players last season as unrecognized for their efforts as Davis Mills.  Even with all the drama, haters, and lack of weapons, Davis Mills quietly put together a nice rookie season.

It must have been crazy for Mills.  Here you are, drafted to a team with seemingly no chance to play, and suddenly, you are thrust into the limelight with fantasy and real life fans alike demanding greatness.  Anyone who says the Houston Texans skilled players are near the bottom of the league aren’t wrong, but even with them, Davis Mills actually performed better than most think.  There are obvious differences, but under a more stringent microscope, Mills compares closer to fellow rookie, Mac Jones.  You also have to discount Mills’ first six games where he got booed by his own fans for not being named Deshaun Watson.  As the season grew, Mills did more with so little than most other quarterbacks.  Moving forward, he’s not a top tier QB1, but he’s surely got a shot at being a decent, dependable QB2.  The price is right for picking.

 

Indianapolis Colts: Wide Receiver – Parris Campbell

There was a time when the name Parris Campbell brought nothing but excitement.  In 2019, the Indianapolis Colts took Campbell as the seventh wide receiver off the board and for many, he was a total steal.  In his senior year, he absolutely exploded from his norm and this was what many thought was just things to come.  At the NFL level, however, he’s yet to show anything close to those “true colors”.  He’s also been injured each and every year.  Most critics have already written him off, but I think there’s a world in which Parris Campbell still holds value.

Admittedly, the exodus of Carson Wentz was somewhat shocking to me.  I knew that there was a chance, but with what the Colts invested to get him, I was sure it was too soon to cut him loose.  Once I saw the Matt Ryan move, it all made sense.  And, this is the same reason why moving for Parris Campbell makes sense.  Matt Ryan ain’t no spring chicken, as they say, but he’s far from done.  Now in a strong system, with tons of support, we’ll see something closer to the Matt Ryan of old.  While everyone feigns for Michael Pittman like they always should have, everyone will forget about the forgettable Parris Campbell.  After Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan will turn to someone and I believe it will be Campbell; who’s essentially free in most leagues.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Tight End – Evan Engram

I have to confess something.  I’ve been an Evan Engram truther since I rostered him in his historic rookie season.  He was nothing short of amazing and when I say, “historic”, I’m not exaggerating.  In his rookie season, not only did he score six times, which is incredible as a rookie tight end, but he also had the 7th most receiving yards of all time.  And while I still love to watch him, I had to come to the realization that his rookie season was a fluke and he’ll always be injured or underutilized or both.  That was, until he came to Jacksonville.

While I still have faith in Daniel Jones, I have even more faith in Trevor Lawrence.  The Clemson product is elite, despite what people are saying because of his rookie season.  Jacksonville is doing what they can to build around him and Evan Engram will suit him nicely.  The receiving core isn’t among the league’s best and Etienne hasn’t played a snap in the NFL, so Lawrence will need a good safety valve to rely on.  Many managers will be coveting Dan Arnold, so there will be many opportunities to trade for Engram for next to nothing.  There’s a chance that Engram’s elite days are over, but I’m willing to try one last time in this better situation and price.

Tennessee Titans: Wide Receiver – Robert Woods

The Tennessee Titans featured one of the best receiving corps in football last season.  AJ Brown is a top three dynasty wideout for many and Julio Jones is absolutely legendary.  The depth is also fantastic with so many young options to choose from.  But, it’s almost criminal how that team couldn’t make Julio Jones shine in his only season away from the Atlanta Falcons.  I know there were injuries, but it was just insane how strongly the regression took place.  Now that he’s gone, the Titans turn to former Rams stud, Robert Woods.

While Robert Woods is no Julio Jones in his prime, he is a fantastic number two under AJ Brown.  He’s a perfect example of how to succeed in a shared receiver offense as he did it with Cooper Kupp for many years.  And while he’s not young, at 29, Woods still has lots of time to prove he’s still got it after last year’s injury.  Derrick Henry can’t be the entire offense anymore and this will force the ball to others, like Robert Woods.  We also can’t forget that Robert Woods looked so good catching balls from the likes of Jared Goff.  No disrespect to Goff, but Tannehill has to be considered an upgrade by many.  Acquire him at a WR4 cost and watch him blossom as a low end WR2 with upside.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

by

Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

Post-Hype Sleepers: Tight Ends

by

Post-Hype Sleepers: Tight Ends

By Alex French

It’s Sunday evening, the weekend is winding down, and that means it's back to the grind in the morning. I’ve been putting this article off all weekend, as this has been the hardest of the series to write. What is the reason you ask? Well, some of the guys that were hyped lived up to it like Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. Others, like OJ Howard and Hunter Henry, have had their situations drastically change.  As a reminder, I consider a post-hype sleeper a player who received large amounts of hype, but failed to meet expectations.

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints 

This is a bit of a weird pick, but hear me out. Cook had 9 touchdowns last year on just 43 receptions. That’s good for an incredible TD rate of 20.9 percent. By no means do I think he will repeat that rate. However, even with regression baked in, I think he’s in line for a top 8 finish at the position. Cook  was learning a new offense last year and he also dealt with an injury early on.  Once Cook returned from his injury, Drew Brees left with one of his own. Towards the end of the season, Brees and Cook seemed to really hit a groove. With a full season to have learned the offense, and the chemistry Cook now has with his quarterback, it's quite easy to see a scenario where Cook finishes with over 700 yards and 8 touchdowns.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

It’s hard to put Hockenson in this category considering he was a rookie last year. Yet, if you remember the narrative last year, it was that Hockenson had too much talent. He was going to be the rookie tight end that finally put up good numbers and change the idea that rookie tight ends just don’t produce. Well, he did…. in week 1. Following his 100+ yard performance, he failed to even top 65 yards the remainder of the season. With Matthew Stafford healthy, I expect Hockenson to put it all together in year two. He’s supremely athletic and in a pass heavy offense. Look for him to prove why he was a top-10 pick in the NFL draft.

Evan Engram, New York Giants 

Injuries have plagued Engram since he entered the league in 2017. He has only played in 19 games the last 2 seasons combined. However, he has produced solid numbers when on the field. Entering his fourth year in the league, I could see him putting it all together. The Giants don’t have a true alpha receiver which also opens the door for Engram to see plenty of opportunity in the offense. It’s also reasonable to expect the Giants to see many negative game scripts this season. This should mean quite a few pass attempts as the Giants play catch up. At the tight end position, opportunity is sometimes all it takes. Add the athleticism Evan Engram brings, and you have the recipe for a reliable weekly starter in your lineup. 

I know these names may not be the most exciting at the position, but tight end saw quite a few breakouts last season. There are also many names that generate excitement in the later rounds, such as Blake Jarwin, Jonnu Smith, and another favorite of mine, Hayden Hurst. With all this in mind, I think 2020 is finally the year the tight end position actually has some depth. Let me know on Twitter who your favorite post-hype sleepers are this year @TheBlindGuyFF.

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

by

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We are onto our 2nd division now! We will be covering the NFC East but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this season as a mouthwatering offense building off of an impressive 2019 campaign. Dallas falls into the BIG BUY category!

QB Dak Prescott: “Ladder Pick”, QB1, 6-7% auction budget, round 5. Dak will be the primary beneficiary of the gargantuan offense surrounding him. The best trio of WRs the NFL has to offer, a TE on the rise, one of the best RBs, *checks notes* oh, and Dak has immense rushing upside! Sheesh!

RB Ezekiel Elliott: RB1, 30-32% auction budget, round 1, this stud do it all 3 down back is poised to have a monster season!

RB Tony Pollard: RB 4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, this zeroRB favorite is the only competition in town behind Zeke. If Zeke were to miss time, Pollard enters high RB2 range.

WR Amari Cooper: WR1, 16-17% auction budget, round 3, the leader of the WR pack is primed for another big year even with Gallup rising and the future star CeeDee Lamb in town, I see him leading the team in targets. Having Cooper as a Best Ball target I would bring some caution to prepare for a little bit of rollercoaster ride week to week but overall he should be feasting.

WR Michael Gallup: ideal WR3 but WR2 if robust RB strategy, 5-6% auction budget, round 7-8, productive player will draw the lesser DB matchup week to week but with this offense being such a nightmare to defend I see Gallup in plus matchups week to week

WR CeeDee Lamb: WR4, 2-3% auction budget, round 11-12, what felt like a luxury pick for Dallas was actually a brilliant selection in Lamb. He can play everywhere, he’s dynamic, will contribute to opening up the offense. I hate to gush so much but there is just so much to love about this group!

TE Blake Jarwin: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 auction stash, round 13, as the clear passing catching TE option I can see him being a chain mover and massive problem in the red zone. Picture this: goal to go…defense has line stacked anticipating Zeke run…play-action…TD Jarwin *chef’s kiss*

Philadelphia Eagles

With Carson Wentz leading the way, the Eagles offense is a BUY this season!

QB Carson Wentz: QB1, 3-4% auction budget/round 9-10, the offensive core remains intact with rookie WR additions; Wentz continues to be an under-appreciated QB for fantasy as well as in real life. He’s got a big arm, rushing upside, and the incoming rookie all have one thing in common: Speed!

RB Miles Sanders: RB1, 19-21% auction budget, late round 1/early round 2, he flashed as a rookie with impressive athleticism and pass catching ability, he will look to improve in all facets of the game especially without Jordan Howard around.

RB Boston Scott: RB5, $1 deep auction stash, end of bench RB/priority FA in shallow leagues. Since the Eagles are an offense I want pieces of, keep a close eye on Scott since he has shown that he is able to produce is this offense when given the opportunity.

WR Jalen Reagor: WR4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, versatility and speed makes him an extremely exciting prospect!

WRs DeSean Jackson (WR5, 1-2% auction budget, round 12-13) and Alshon Jeffrey (priority FA in deep leagues, purely because he is starting the year on the PUP list) are seasoned vets and have proven to be difference makers when healthy. Were Best Ball leagues made for DeSean Jackson or was DeSean Jackson made for Best Ball leagues? All I know is that Best Ball league championship trophies were named after DeSean Jackson.

TE Zach Ertz: “Ladder Pick” TE1, 9-11% auction budget, round 4 (it he lasts to round 5- I am smashing his name!), Ertz has the ability to lead the Eagles in targets, catches, and TDs. Having the speed of Reagor and Jackson will only further open things up for Ertz. He will continue to be a favorite target for chain moving and in the red zone!

TE Dallas Goedert: high TE2, 2-3% auction budget, round 13/14, a great selection if your strategy to “wait on TE” gets out of hand. He has shown to be productive even when sharing the field with Ertz, if Ertz were to miss time he instantly becomes a mid range TE1!

The Washington Football Team

I’m generally considering this offense a FADE, however I believe any player in any offense is worth keeping an eye on especially in an uncertain year such as this.

QB Dwayne Haskins: low end QB2 is a FA to watch, outside of dynasty and super flex leagues he is undraftable. We want sure things and upside in our draft. Worth keeping an eye on as a streaming option as he looks to further develop as a pro QB in a division where shoot-outs are likely week to week. The good news is he has nowhere to go but up, hopefully. Remember, he is only two years removed from setting Ohio State University records for single-season passing yards and single-season touchdowns. If your starting QBs’ bye week lands on the same week that Washington plays a division rival, that may just be a good opportunity to consider Haskins.

RB Adrian Peterson: RB4, 1-2% auction budget, round 13, Peterson (much like Frank Gore) isn’t going away. He still may have some juice left, but if Washington is frequently playing from behind (which I would think is likely) than I’m not sure how the new and improved coaching staff can justify having him on the field. I’m no NFL head coach though.

RB Antonio Gibson: RB4, 3-4% auction budget, round 9/10, for me he is the player to target in this crowded backfield. I think his skill set and inherent upside separates him from the pack. I believe he is the perfect type of RB to be used in those situations hwer Washington will be trailing in games, again which I think is likely to be often. I believe he has the ability to takeover this backfield eventually. Upside stash!

RB Bryce Love: end of bench RB5/6, I’m hoping to see the Bryce Love we saw in college, but have to see him on the field first. Border line undraftable with crowded backfield but certainly a worth a late round stash as depth bench piece, I see him more as a priority FA worth keeping a close eye on!

WR Terry McLaurin: WR2, 13-14% of auction budget, round 5, this QB proof stud looks to improve upon an already impressive rookie season. He is the bright light of an offense that has a lot to improve on with a new coaching staff.
Players to monitor: TE Logan Thomas,  WR Steven Sims and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden. I feel this is important to mention because I made the mistake of brushing off Terry McLaurin’s dominant week 1 performance against the Eagles.

My stupid brain (at the time): “Who cares? It’s Washington. Of course he lit up the Eagles, it just what WRs do to them”… BUT he went on to have a truly impressive season. Don’t repeat my mistake, I suggest you pounce if one of those guys breaks out. Steven Sims was a stud weeks 15-17. Keep an eye out.

New York Giants

The Giants are an offense I’m categorizing as NEUTRAL, this offensive core has plenty of room to grow with players that you should not shy away from nor with players worth “reaching” for considering their auction value/ADP.

QB Daniel Jones: high QB2 with sneaky QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. Good weapons surrounding him can help salvage his fantasy outlook if he struggles with turnovers, 2-3% auction budget, round 12/13

RB Saquon Barkley: RB1 (ranked RB2), 31-33% auction budget, early round 1 (chalk at 1.02), he’s does it all, he’s a stud, an exceptionally talented athlete! Quads for days!

WRs Sterling Shepard (WR4 3-4% auction budget, round 8/9), Golden Tate (WR4 2-3% auction budget, round 9/10), and Darius Slayton (WR4 2-3% auction budgets, round 9/10) make up a very nice trio of WRs for Daniel Jones. All great first guy on the bench options, very useful for injury/bye replacements with upside for more.

TE Evan Engram: TE1, 5-6% auction budget, round 7/8, as my TE6 he leads the middle tier of TEs (with Hayden Hurst and Hunter Henry), provides a lot of upside and will be a beneficiary of mismatches with the trio of WRs alongside of him.