Eagles

Dynasty Buy Lows & Sell Highs

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Dynasty Buy Low Sell High

by Bob Miller

Aug. 8, 2021

Back in April, before the NFL Draft, I put out a “Buy Low Sell High” article. Looking back I hope you took my advice, because I recommended you buying low on players like Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Goedert, and Lamar Jackson. Some players I said to sell high were James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson. You can see that article here: https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-buy-lows-sell-highs/

I’m back now to share with you who is on my “Buy Low Sell High” list now.

Tua Tagovailoa

So many fantasy football players are already calling Tua a bust. He was coming off a brutal injury, a shortened off-season, and an absolutely terrible receiving corp. That’s what Tua Tagovailoa dealt with last season. Now heading into year two, Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps that fits his skillset perfectly, and he's had the full off-season to prepare as the starter. I can see Tua Tagovailoa being that late round QB to break out this season, just like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert did previously. He is one of my favorite buy low candidates.

Joe Burrow

I’d personally like to thank Justin Herbert for taking up all the rookie spotlight last year. That allows me to swoop in and get Burrow as a fantastic value. We all know that Burrow has tremendous talent, a great receiving back in Joe Mixon, and now three incredible WRs after drafting Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s add a terrible defense to the mix. All that means fantasy goodness. I don’t care if it’s garbage time or not, Burrow is going to be playing from behind a lot this season. That could very well put into the QB1 conversation.

TJ Hockenson

I’m not saying you will get Hockenson cheap, but this may very well be the lowest price you’ll be able to buy him moving forward. He and Jared Goff have worked together a lot this offseason, and it has been showing in camp. Multiple reports say that Hockenson is clearly the #1 target in the passing game. You can’t argue that when your starting WRs are Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. Detroit is another terrible team that will be playing from behind a lot, which is good news for Hockenson owners. After this season I believe Hockenson will be joining the “Elite TE” Tier with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.

JK Dobbins

Dobbins showed everyone last season that he was arguably the best RB in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now he's poised to take a big step forward in his second season. While we can expect big things from Dobbins and this Ravens rushing attack, fantasy owners are still worried about Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards taking work from Dobbins. That should be a concern in most offenses, but not Baltimore’s. The Ravens run enough that it shouldn’t affect Dobbins’ workload. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season, which was tops amongst all RBs. The Ravens have been throwing to Dobbins a lot in Training Camp as well, which only increases his value in PPR Leagues. Dobbins will get plenty of work and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. I have him projected for 1132 rushing yds, 11 TDs while adding 29 rec for 289 yds, and 1 rec TD. That puts him firmly in the RB1 category. 

DJ Chark

Remember this guy? DJ Chark was a hot name this time last year. In 2019 Chark averaged 15.67 PPR points per game. That was good for 14th amongst wide receivers. Unfortunately last season Jacksonville just stunk it up. Poor play calling and quarterback play crippled DJ Chark’s ceiling. Enter Trevor Lawrence. This big-armed quarterback isn’t afraid to sling the ball. Marvin Jones will get attention lining up on the other side of the field, and Laviska Shenault is a mismatch lining up in the slot. All of this bodes well for Chark, who should see plenty of single coverage. Currently being drafted/viewed as a WR3/WR4, Chark is a perfect buy low candidate that should return solid WR2 numbers.

 

Russell Wilson

Wilson is one of the first players that come to mind when I’m thinking “Sell”. He is an incredible fantasy QB throughout the first half of the season, but he really cools off for the 2nd half of the season. This has been the case over the last couple of seasons, and that really lets you down for your fantasy playoffs. In 2020 Wilson averaged 25.75 fantasy points through week 8. He averaged 17.08 points per game from Week 9 on. In 2019 he averaged 24.94 fantasy points per game through Week 9. After that.. 13.01 points per game moving forward. You can sell him now or use him until around Week 7 to trade him for a great return.

George Kittle

I’m not saying get rid of Kittle, but I would certainly entertain offers for him. He is an absolute beast when on the field. I don’t have to give you stats. Kittle is a fantasy stud, and we all know it. So why is he on this list? Because he plays pretty rough, and I have some durability concerns when it comes to him. Plus I love selling players at their highest value and getting good players and good picks in return. I would target the Darren Waller owner in your league and see if you can get Waller in addition to another solid player, or a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick.

Darrell Henderson

Sell, sell, sell, unless you handcuffed him to Cam Akers. If not, you’re playing with house money. You already have your RBs and Henderson was a late round or waiver wire pickup. Go target the RB needy owners in your league and make out like a bandit. I’ve seen Henderson go for a 1st round rookie pick in many leagues already. If you can make that deal, do it. If not, bundle him with someone to upgrade a position. My favorite is pairing him up with a mid tier Tight End to upgrade to Darren Waller or possibly even Travis Kelce.

Aaron Jones

Think about how worried you Aaron Jones owners were with the thought of Aaron Rodgers not returning to the Green Bay Packers. Those owners dodged a bullet this season, so let’s not go through that again. Rodgers’ new contract grants him an “out” after this season if he chooses. Sure, Aaron Jones put up great numbers last season averaging 18.49 PPR points per game, but if ARod leaves after this season, Jones’ fantasy stock will plummet. My recommendation is to cash out while you’re ahead. If you’re not getting what you want right now, don’t worry. Just wait a couple of games into the season. Everyone needs RBs in fantasy. When Jones puts up some serious fantasy points, take advantage at that point and cash in. 

Diontae Johnson

Johnson is another great sell high candidate. He averaged 15.09 PPR points last season as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and this may very well be his last season. With that uncertainty looming in Pittsburgh makes me want to sell Johnson at what could be his highest value. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Shuster getting his targets, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers Johnson will put up this season. Don’t forget that the Steelers want to focus a lot more on the running game after selecting Najee Harris in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Find the Steelers fans in your league, because there is always Steelers fans in every league, and target another solid WR on their team like Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, or DeVonta Smith.

2021 NFL Draft – Philadelphia Eagles “Re-Building around Jalen Hurts”

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2021 NFL Draft – Philadelphia Eagles

“Re-Building around Jalen Hurts”

By Steve Uetz

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a full-blown rebuild being only one year removed from being a playoff team. That is how quickly things can change in the NFL. The Eagles have many roster needs and now with a new head coach, new offensive and defensive coordinators, and new franchise QB hopeful, the Eagles embark on a quest to return to a playoff caliber team! Sitting at #6 overall, the Eagles could have gone a zillion different directions with which position to target, but they decided to make a pre-draft splash. Philadelphia contributed to the pre-draft trade madness by completing a trade with the Miami Dolphins to move from 6th to 12th overall in exchange for a 2022 1st round pick. This came directly after the Dolphins dealt with the 49ers to move from 3rd to 12th and then back down to 6th overall! There was plenty of pre-draft speculation that the Eagles weren’t done making moves as GM Howie Roseman is one of the most aggressive draft day trade dealers. Sure enough, the Eagles made another move… 

Draft Summary

1st Round (10) – WR DeVonta Smith (Alabama)

In a very strange turn of events with the division rivals (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) picking back-to-back-to-back; the Cowboys at #10 traded back to #12 with the Eagles (who gave up a 2021 3rd round pick), so the Eagles could leapfrog the New York Giants at #11 to draft the Heisman winning Alabama WR DeVonta Smith! This clearly jostled the Giants plans since they immediately traded back to #20 to give the Bears the #11 pick. 

DeVonta Smith and his easy speed is a dream come true for the Eagles at #10 overall being the 3rd WR selected! Smith fulfills the Eagles’ glaring need at the WR position and was the first pick of several that suggested that the team is committed to building around 2nd year QB Jalen Hurts. Smith becomes the de facto WR1 for the Eagles offense as he reunites with Jalen Hurts!

2nd Round (37) – C Landon Dickerson (Alabama)

In round 2 at 37 overall, the Eagles continued to demonstrate their commitment to Jalen Hurts as they turned their eyes back to the Alabama talent pool to select OL/C Landon Dickerson. Dickerson is an absolute wall and a clear first round talent. He fell to the early 2nd round because of an unfortunate injury history in his collegiate career; most recently suffering an ACL tear in the 2021 National Championship victory over Ohio State. The Eagles OL was depleted by injuries last season and with All-Pro Center Jason Kelce flirting with retirement, Dickerson is a very smart talent addition! He will slot right into an interior lineman position and be the future Center when healthy!

3rd Round (73) – DT Milton Williams (Louisiana Tech)

In the 3rd round at 73rd overall, the Eagles targeted another position of need with a DT. Milton Williams was the selection to replace Malik Jackson and play alongside All-Pro DT Fletcher Cox. The Louisiana Tech product is an extremely intriguing player and has become known as Aaron Donald lite. Williams lacked the Donald level college production to support his 1st round draft capitol, but their physical testing numbers are shockingly similar. Check this out: Williams stands 2 inches taller and weighs 1 less lb. than Donald, but Williams ran a faster 40 yard dash, short shuttle, and three-cone drill, and out-performed Donald in the vertical and broad jumps! Donald completed 35 bench reps to Williams’ 34! Aaron Donald is in a class of his own, but the peripheral athleticism of Williams simply cannot be ignored!

Secondary: 4th round (123) CB Zech McPhearson (Texas Tech) / 6th Round (224) S/LB JaCoby Stevens (LSU) 

New defensive coordinator Jonathon Gannon not only needs to generally bolster the secondary but needs to especially due to the NFC East teams maintaining (Dallas Cowboys impressive trio of WRs) and adding extra pass-catching firepower through free agency and the draft. Philadelphia’s new opponents include the likes of Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney (New York Giants) and Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown (Washington Football Team). The First Team All-Big 12 CB McPhearson and 2019 2nd Team All-SEC and National Champion Stevens lands in an Eagles secondary group that seemingly is always in need of help. Led by veteran stud Darius Slay, the Eagles secondary has some intriguing pieces to it but have their work cut out for them!

5th round (150) RB Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis) 

One of the more (and shockingly many) surprising skill position players to see fall in the draft was Memphis RB Kenneth Gainwell. At least for fantasy purposes our radars are extra sensitive to where these intriguing RB prospects like Gainwell will land, but the Eagles made a surprising move and swooped in to snag him as a great value in the 5th round! I say surprising only because I thought the last position the Eagles needed to address was the RB position. Nevertheless, they land an RB with plenty of pass-catching upside as Gainwell is the latest to be drafted from the Memphis RB tree among the likes of Antonio Gibson, Darrell Henderson, and Tony Pollard. Gainwell will seemingly slot right into a backup role as a “hurry up offense” and pass-catching RB to mix in when Miles Sanders comes off the field. The most telling part of this draft pick is the further evidence of commitment to QB Jalen Hurts by adding another pass-catching weapon to the rebuilding arsenal!

6th round (189) DT Marlon Tuipulotu (USC) - 1st team All-Pac 12 and Senior Bowl attendee

6th round (191) DE/EDGE Tarron Jackson (Coastal Carolina) - Senior Bowl attendee

7th round (234) LB/EDGE Patrick Johnson (Tulane) - 3x All AAC Team and Tulane’s all-time sack leader

The Eagles had 4 selections throughout the 6th and 7th rounds which were focused solely on defense. The Eagles defense is in a unique spot; not only experienced some change in personnel but also performed below expectation (as did the rest of the team) in 2020. The expectations for the new coaching staff are high, well to at least to demonstrate progress is being made as Philadelphia attempts to remain competitive in their rebuilding stages while stewing in an overall inconsistent division. The Eagles land three collegiately productive players that fill immediate roster needs. 2021 Senior Bowl attendees DT Marlon Tuipulotu and DE/EDGE Tarron Jackson have their work cut out for them as they aim to stop the likes of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Antonio Gibson. While versatile LB/EDGE Patrick Johnson will mix in in the overall weak LB group. The Eagles announced Johnson as a LB but will likely be utilized as an outside linebacker and involved as a pass rusher. 

Undrafted Free Agents

Jhamon Ausbon, WR, Texas A&M

Kayode Awosika, G, Buffalo

JaQuan Bailey, DE, Iowa State

Harry Crider, OL, Indiana

Trevon Grimes, WR, Florida

Jamie Newman, QB, Wake Forest

Jack Stoll, TE, Nebraska

Realistically Philadelphia is a couple years away from being true NFC contenders or even favorites in the shaky NFC East but in this draft they were able to fill some coveted roster needs. The 2021-2022 season will likely be a monitoring process of Jalen Hurts and the new coaching staff while ultimately anticipating the 2022 draft where they will have at least 2, but very likely to have 3 1st round picks!

Bob Miller’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft

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by Bob Miller

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (QB - Clemson)

Do I really need to give a reason? He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Done.

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson (QB - BYU)

Wilson's athletic ability, accuracy from the pocket and on the run, and leadership makes him a no brainer here for the Jets.

3. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Fields (QB - Ohio State)

The 49ers play Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray twice a year. They know what kind of a problem that type of quarterback is to defend. San Francisco decides that they need one of those QBs as well.

4. Denver Broncos - Trey Lance (QB - North Dakota State) Trade w/ Atlanta

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a trade! Atlanta trades the 4th pick to the Denver Broncos. After Denver failed to trade for Deshaun Watson, they decide that they won't fail again. They move up to get the their man, a mobile quarterback with a big arm for those cold games. Trey Lance fits that perfectly. Teddy Bridgewater is not their future, Trey Lance is.

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase (WR - LSU)

Lots of mock drafts have Oregon LT Penei Sewell going here to the Bengals. Not mine. Ja'Marr Chase is the undisputed #1 wide receiver in this draft. Tackle is deeper is this draft than the past few years. They'll get one in the 2nd or 3rd. Cincinnati just can't pass on the opportunity to reunite Joe Burrow and his favorite WR. 

6. Miami Dolphins - Kyle Pitts (TE - Florida)

The Dolphins are thrilled to get Kyle Pitts. This once in a generation TE talent is just what they need to ensure that Tua Tagovailoa has every opportunity to succeed.

7. New England Patriots - Mac Jones (QB - Alabama) Trade w/ Detroit

We have our 2nd trade of the day! Detroit has been targeting WR Jaylen Waddle here for quite some time, but New England makes an offer that Detroit can't refuse. The Patriots get their guy! Jones needs the right situation to be successful in the NFL. What better situation to be in than being coached by Bill Belichick.

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell (LT - Oregon)

Sewell has dropped far enough. Carolina is in desperate need of a LT. Sewell starts day one and is the staple of their offensive line for the next decade.

9. Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II (CB - Alabama)

Defense is the priority for Atlanta. They traded back from pick #4 knowing that they were going to get one of the best corners available. They just happen to land the absolute best corner in this year's draft.

10. Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn (CB - South Carolina)

Dallas fans are left disappointed after Patrick Surtain II gets sniped the pick before them. With cornerback being a major priority they take the best corner available. Horn is fast, physical, and will step in and start day one.

11. NY Giants - Jaelan Phillips (EDGE - Miami)

Phillips is arguably the most talented edge rusher in this class. He has had some injuries but is absolutely worth taking at pick #11. He will fill the void needed since Jason Pierre-Paul left years ago.

12. Philadelphia Eagles - Devonta Smith (WR - Alabama)

A dream come true for Philadelphia Eagles fans. They are in dire need for a WR, so what better than the unstoppable Heisman Trophy Winner. He is a bit undersized, but he's played that way his entire career. Congrats to Jaylen Hurts on getting a shiny new toy.

13. LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater (LT - Northwestern)

Los Angeles failed to land LT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens. They didn't want to give what Baltimore was asking, because they knew they could land their franchise LT in this draft. Slater will be a very good left tackle in the NFL protecting Justin Herbert's blind side for years to come.

14. Minnesota Vikings - Kwity Paye (EDGE - Michigan)

Minnesota doesn’t have a second-round pick this year, so trading back is definitely a possibility. Adding a pass-rusher with this type of agility and strength opposite of Danielle Hunter may be just too hard to pass up.

15. Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle (WR - Alabama)

How about that. Detroit trades back with the hopes that Waddle would still be available, and he is. Waddle is a weapon that Detroit will use in many different ways. With the loss of Kenny Golladay via free agency, Waddle will targeted early and often.

16. Arizona Cardinals - Caleb Farley (CB - Virginia Tech)

With a glaring hole in the secondary left by Patrick Peterson, Arizona has to walk out of the first two rounds with a CB. Farley would have been a top-10 pick, but has fallen a bit due to the back injury concerns. Arizona believes that the reward outweighs the risk here.

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Micah Parsons (LB - Penn State)

This just makes too much sense. The Raiders need major help at linebacker, and Parsons is the best LB in this draft. Character issues prevents Parsons from being taken in the top 10, but that's not a concern for GM Mike Mayock. Jon Gruden may hurt himself running to the phone to call in this pick.

18. Miami Dolphins - Azeez Ojulari (EDGE - Georgia)

Azeez Ojulari is an edge defender with incredible speed and explosiveness. His upside is just to good for Miami to pass up.

19.Washington - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB - Notre Dame)

Washington is very thin at LB. JOK is an extremely fast linebacker that can line up against slot receivers and deliver a big pop to outside runs. This combined with his leadership makes this a big get for the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw (LT - Virginia Tech)

Chicago considers going with WR Rashod Bateman here, but LT is a bigger need for the Bears. Darrisaw is a top tier OT, and is too good of a value here to pass up. Chicago can grab a WR in the next couple of rounds.

21. Indianapolis Colts - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT – USC)

Left Tackle is by far the biggest need for the Colts, and Vera-Tucker is a versatile, athletic, and strong lineman that can line up anywhere. That won't matter as the Colts will plug him in at LT immediately.

22. Tennessee Titans - Rashod Bateman (WR - Minnesota)

The Titans "had" 2 major needs: Pass rush and wide receiver. They addressed the pass rushing need via free agency by signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. Now they need to replace the hole at WR with Corey Davis leaving for New York. They get a solid replacement in Rashod Bateman.

23. NY Jets - Greg Newsome (CB- Northwestern)

Cornerback is a major weakness for the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh is going to be thrilled that he lands a talent such as Newsome here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Gregory Rousseau (EDGE - Miami)

Pittsburgh has to replace EDGE with the loss of Bud Dupree. Rousseau is an absolute freak. He is 6'6/260 and has incredible reach. He has tremendous length for the position, and he's still building out his frame. He is still a little raw, but his upside is amazing.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig (S - TCU)

The best safety in this draft falls to the team that needs him the most. Jacksonville can use quite a bit of help on defense, and they get it here. Moehrig has great acceleration and closes on the ball quickly. He's a playmaker that Jacksonville desperately needs.

26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins (LB - Tulsa)

Collins is a big, physical, and mobile linebacker that covers the middle of the field. He is fantastic against the run, which Cleveland will need to help them get over the hump against teams like Baltimore. He fills a need for Cleveland.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Tryon (EDGE - Washington)

Baltimore has 3 holes to fill: EDGE, OT, and WR. Joe Tryon has elite upside as a pass rusher and will make an immediate impact for the Ravens. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape is fantastic. He has the potential to produce double digit sacks his rookie year in that Baltimore defense.

28. New Orleans Saints - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB - Florida State)

We all know about the Saints' salary cap situation. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans trade back here, but their secondary is the top priority. They are in bad shape behind Marshon Lattimore, so drafting Samuel here makes all the sense in the world.

29. Green Bay Packers - Terrace Marshall (WR - LSU)

It's no secret that Green Bay needs help at WR behind Davante Adams. Marshall has size, speed, and great hands. He is a big target that is a mismatch for opposing corners. He will be a welcomed addition to the Packers offense.

30. Buffalo Bills - Joseph Ossai (EDGE - Texas)

I almost went with Najee Harris here, but EDGE is a bigger need for this team. They can get a RB in the next rounds. Ossai has a high motor and  high upside. He has great size and a very strong lower body. He is built for the NFL, and should be a solid EDGE defender that the Bills need.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Teven Jenkins (OT - Oklahoma State)

The Ravens were really hoping that Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall would fall to them here, but unfortunately that doesn't happen.  Rumor is the Ravens are shopping this pick. I'm 50/50 on the them trading back, because they already have 9 picks. With that being said they draft Teven Jenkins, a big, nasty RT with incredible size and strength. He's an elite pass protector and a fantastic run blocker. He fits right in where Orlando Brown left off.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jayson Oweh (EDGE - Penn State)

Jason Pierre-Paul isn't getting any younger, and Oweh will be a great replacement when the time comes. He has a ton of talent but has a bit to learn. He lands in the perfect situation in Tampa. He can be a situational player for now and learn from two great pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett.

 

I want to give a special thanks to @McManusDesigns, @SwapKingdom, @SchapDesign, @Golden.GRFX, @SnaggyGFX, and @DesignedbyFranco for the awesome jersey swaps!

You can follow me on twitter at @BaltimoreBobFF

 

 

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC East 2020 Fantasy Breakdown

By Steve Uetz

We are onto our 2nd division now! We will be covering the NFC East but first here are some reminders about what my breakdowns are all about:

The team breakdowns will contain an overarching theme for each team or more specifically each offensive core. The offensive cores will be organized into four categories: FADE, NEUTRAL, BUY, and BIG BUY! ADP and auction values will somewhat reflect this but I will be adding some personal perspective with keeping some rules of thumb in mind.

Rule of Thumb #1: Each offensive core may have specific player exceptions.

Rule of Thumb #2: Every player has value at the right price.

The breakdowns will include the players to target from each team, the players’ ideal positional count for your roster, target cost for auction budget % and round #, league type preferences, along with optional blurbs from yours truly. Throughout the team breakdowns be sure to keep your eyes wide open looking for the players with coveted “Ladder Pick” label. The “Ladder Pick” players are who I have identified as those who will help you climb the ladder of fantasy football success for the 2020 season.

I have 6 teams whose offensive core make up the BIG BUY category, 8 teams in the BUY category, 12 teams in the NEUTRAL category, and the remaining 6 teams will generally be considered as a FADE. Just so we are on the same page…BIG BUY=offensive cores to target aggressively; BUY=offensive cores that are reach worthy; NEUTRAL=offensive cores (with some players exceptions both positive and negative) to be drafted at value – not to be reached for nor to be shied away from; FADE=offensive cores to pass on at consensus ranking, players to be drafted weighing risk, or players to be drafted only if at a value, larger the discount the better; always!

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this season as a mouthwatering offense building off of an impressive 2019 campaign. Dallas falls into the BIG BUY category!

QB Dak Prescott: “Ladder Pick”, QB1, 6-7% auction budget, round 5. Dak will be the primary beneficiary of the gargantuan offense surrounding him. The best trio of WRs the NFL has to offer, a TE on the rise, one of the best RBs, *checks notes* oh, and Dak has immense rushing upside! Sheesh!

RB Ezekiel Elliott: RB1, 30-32% auction budget, round 1, this stud do it all 3 down back is poised to have a monster season!

RB Tony Pollard: RB 4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, this zeroRB favorite is the only competition in town behind Zeke. If Zeke were to miss time, Pollard enters high RB2 range.

WR Amari Cooper: WR1, 16-17% auction budget, round 3, the leader of the WR pack is primed for another big year even with Gallup rising and the future star CeeDee Lamb in town, I see him leading the team in targets. Having Cooper as a Best Ball target I would bring some caution to prepare for a little bit of rollercoaster ride week to week but overall he should be feasting.

WR Michael Gallup: ideal WR3 but WR2 if robust RB strategy, 5-6% auction budget, round 7-8, productive player will draw the lesser DB matchup week to week but with this offense being such a nightmare to defend I see Gallup in plus matchups week to week

WR CeeDee Lamb: WR4, 2-3% auction budget, round 11-12, what felt like a luxury pick for Dallas was actually a brilliant selection in Lamb. He can play everywhere, he’s dynamic, will contribute to opening up the offense. I hate to gush so much but there is just so much to love about this group!

TE Blake Jarwin: TE2 with sneaky TE1 upside, $1 auction stash, round 13, as the clear passing catching TE option I can see him being a chain mover and massive problem in the red zone. Picture this: goal to go…defense has line stacked anticipating Zeke run…play-action…TD Jarwin *chef’s kiss*

Philadelphia Eagles

With Carson Wentz leading the way, the Eagles offense is a BUY this season!

QB Carson Wentz: QB1, 3-4% auction budget/round 9-10, the offensive core remains intact with rookie WR additions; Wentz continues to be an under-appreciated QB for fantasy as well as in real life. He’s got a big arm, rushing upside, and the incoming rookie all have one thing in common: Speed!

RB Miles Sanders: RB1, 19-21% auction budget, late round 1/early round 2, he flashed as a rookie with impressive athleticism and pass catching ability, he will look to improve in all facets of the game especially without Jordan Howard around.

RB Boston Scott: RB5, $1 deep auction stash, end of bench RB/priority FA in shallow leagues. Since the Eagles are an offense I want pieces of, keep a close eye on Scott since he has shown that he is able to produce is this offense when given the opportunity.

WR Jalen Reagor: WR4, 3-4% auction budget, round 11-12, versatility and speed makes him an extremely exciting prospect!

WRs DeSean Jackson (WR5, 1-2% auction budget, round 12-13) and Alshon Jeffrey (priority FA in deep leagues, purely because he is starting the year on the PUP list) are seasoned vets and have proven to be difference makers when healthy. Were Best Ball leagues made for DeSean Jackson or was DeSean Jackson made for Best Ball leagues? All I know is that Best Ball league championship trophies were named after DeSean Jackson.

TE Zach Ertz: “Ladder Pick” TE1, 9-11% auction budget, round 4 (it he lasts to round 5- I am smashing his name!), Ertz has the ability to lead the Eagles in targets, catches, and TDs. Having the speed of Reagor and Jackson will only further open things up for Ertz. He will continue to be a favorite target for chain moving and in the red zone!

TE Dallas Goedert: high TE2, 2-3% auction budget, round 13/14, a great selection if your strategy to “wait on TE” gets out of hand. He has shown to be productive even when sharing the field with Ertz, if Ertz were to miss time he instantly becomes a mid range TE1!

The Washington Football Team

I’m generally considering this offense a FADE, however I believe any player in any offense is worth keeping an eye on especially in an uncertain year such as this.

QB Dwayne Haskins: low end QB2 is a FA to watch, outside of dynasty and super flex leagues he is undraftable. We want sure things and upside in our draft. Worth keeping an eye on as a streaming option as he looks to further develop as a pro QB in a division where shoot-outs are likely week to week. The good news is he has nowhere to go but up, hopefully. Remember, he is only two years removed from setting Ohio State University records for single-season passing yards and single-season touchdowns. If your starting QBs’ bye week lands on the same week that Washington plays a division rival, that may just be a good opportunity to consider Haskins.

RB Adrian Peterson: RB4, 1-2% auction budget, round 13, Peterson (much like Frank Gore) isn’t going away. He still may have some juice left, but if Washington is frequently playing from behind (which I would think is likely) than I’m not sure how the new and improved coaching staff can justify having him on the field. I’m no NFL head coach though.

RB Antonio Gibson: RB4, 3-4% auction budget, round 9/10, for me he is the player to target in this crowded backfield. I think his skill set and inherent upside separates him from the pack. I believe he is the perfect type of RB to be used in those situations hwer Washington will be trailing in games, again which I think is likely to be often. I believe he has the ability to takeover this backfield eventually. Upside stash!

RB Bryce Love: end of bench RB5/6, I’m hoping to see the Bryce Love we saw in college, but have to see him on the field first. Border line undraftable with crowded backfield but certainly a worth a late round stash as depth bench piece, I see him more as a priority FA worth keeping a close eye on!

WR Terry McLaurin: WR2, 13-14% of auction budget, round 5, this QB proof stud looks to improve upon an already impressive rookie season. He is the bright light of an offense that has a lot to improve on with a new coaching staff.
Players to monitor: TE Logan Thomas,  WR Steven Sims and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden. I feel this is important to mention because I made the mistake of brushing off Terry McLaurin’s dominant week 1 performance against the Eagles.

My stupid brain (at the time): “Who cares? It’s Washington. Of course he lit up the Eagles, it just what WRs do to them”… BUT he went on to have a truly impressive season. Don’t repeat my mistake, I suggest you pounce if one of those guys breaks out. Steven Sims was a stud weeks 15-17. Keep an eye out.

New York Giants

The Giants are an offense I’m categorizing as NEUTRAL, this offensive core has plenty of room to grow with players that you should not shy away from nor with players worth “reaching” for considering their auction value/ADP.

QB Daniel Jones: high QB2 with sneaky QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. Good weapons surrounding him can help salvage his fantasy outlook if he struggles with turnovers, 2-3% auction budget, round 12/13

RB Saquon Barkley: RB1 (ranked RB2), 31-33% auction budget, early round 1 (chalk at 1.02), he’s does it all, he’s a stud, an exceptionally talented athlete! Quads for days!

WRs Sterling Shepard (WR4 3-4% auction budget, round 8/9), Golden Tate (WR4 2-3% auction budget, round 9/10), and Darius Slayton (WR4 2-3% auction budgets, round 9/10) make up a very nice trio of WRs for Daniel Jones. All great first guy on the bench options, very useful for injury/bye replacements with upside for more.

TE Evan Engram: TE1, 5-6% auction budget, round 7/8, as my TE6 he leads the middle tier of TEs (with Hayden Hurst and Hunter Henry), provides a lot of upside and will be a beneficiary of mismatches with the trio of WRs alongside of him.

Post-Hype Sleepers: Quarterbacks

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Quarterbacks

By Alex French

It’s here! Draft season is upon us and I can't contain my excitement. The NFL season is right around the corner, and we are here to help you bring home a championship. To begin your run at glory, here is the next in my post-hype sleepers series. Today we’re talking Quarterbacks. As a reminder, I define post-hype sleeper as a player who received large amounts of hype and excitement, but failed to live up to expectations. Let’s jump in!

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

If you follow me on Twitter (@TheBlindGuyFF), you may recognize this statistic. However, it makes a solid stance for the stability of Wentz. Wentz is the only quarterback to finish top 12 at the position, who had at least 1 touchdown pass in every game. That presents a very solid floor. 

This off-season the Eagles drafted 3 receivers (Jalen Reagor-1st RD, John Hightower-5th RD, Quez Watkins-6th RD) in this year’s draft to help add depth to what was a depleted receiving corps last year. Dallas Goeddert continues to improve each year in the league, and Zach Ertz continues to be a top target for Wentz. Carson Wentz is also the first quarterback to ever throw for over 4,000 yards without a single Wide Receiver topping 500 yards. Imagine what he could do with healthy receiving weapons. Oh yeah...he almost won the MVP award before he had his own injury. Wentz is in line for another top-12 finish and provides great value in all formats.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

As a rookie, Mayfield set the rookie record for touchdown passes with 27. That is more than Deshaun Watson has ever thrown in a single season. Mayfield also did that in just 14 games. This off-season the Browns heavily addressed the offensive line issues of last season. Pro Football Focus ranked them as the most improved line and third best in the league.

Kevin Stefanski takes over as the new Head Coach, which should help this offense take a step in the right direction. Look for the Browns offense as a whole to improve efficiency, allowing Baker Mayfield to show what helped him become a number one overall pick and a Heisman Trophy winner.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

2019 was a year the Steelers would probably like to forget. Injuries plagued their roster at all phases. From the offensive line, to RBs, and of course the receiving corps It seemed like no one could stay on the field. It all starts with the signal caller, who left in week 2. 

When we last saw Big Ben in a full season in 2018, he put together a finish behind only Patrick Mahomes.  After his surgery, Roethlisberger stated that it’s the first time in years he has had no pain in his elbow. Recent reports from Pittsburgh indicate he hasn’t lost any velocity and has even lost some extra weight. He has been hard at work and says he feels better than ever. I understand these are all things every player says coming off a major injury, but let's look at other factors. 

The Steelers offensive line is healthy, James Conner is healthy and even added muscle to reduce the injury risk, and perhaps most importantly, his top target in JuJu Smith-Schuster is healthy.  With the addition of Chase Claypool, JuJu should be able to slide back into the slot. Roethlisberger will also get to step onto the field for the first time with second-year wideout Diontae Johnson. The Steelers appear to be poised for a run at another Super Bowl with all hands on deck. With an improved team all around him, and his weapons and himself healthy, I think Roethlisberger will make fantasy owners happy in 2020. 

 

 

 

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